后冷战时期美国核威慑政策述评与思考—现实主义的视角
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摘要
冷战结束后,国际核安全环境发生了根本性改变,世界大国间发生核大战的可能性大为降低。冷战后美国历届政府对核威慑政策进行了调整,具体表现在：削减美国进攻性战略核武器数量、降低“报复性威慑”在美国国家安全中的作用；发展用于“拒止性威慑”的导弹防御系统和核常兼备的高科技武器,提升美国“拒止性威慑”力量的实战能力。
实际上,后冷战时期美国的核威慑政策,是对冷战时期美国核威慑政策的继承和发展,其最终目的都是为了确保美国的绝对国家安全。但是当美国寻求其国家绝对安全的理想遇到需要妥协的现实时,它就不得不对其核威慑政策作出策略性调整,但这种调整没有也不会改变其寻求绝对安全的本质。具体表现在冷战结束后,美国退出了《反导条约》,极力发展导弹防御系统。从冷战时期“报复性核威慑”转变为冷战后“拒止性核威慑”,以及后冷战时期美国“拒止性核威慑”能力的发展,体现了美国寻求国家绝对安全之路。在此过程中,现实主义是美国核威慑政策调整主要的指导思想。
Post-cold war era, international security environment has changed dramatically, the threat of global nuclear war has become remote. Accordingly, American administration has adjusted the nuclear deterrence policy, that is:reduce the quantity of offensive strategic weapons, reduce the role of deterrence by punishment in American national security, while develop the Ballistic Missile Defense System and hi-technology weapons which have dual—capable capability and raise the capability of deterrence by denial.
In fact, America's post cold war nuclear deterrence policies is the continuation and develop of cold war times, the ultimate purpose is to achieve America's absolute security. But when this realism confront the reality, the American administration has to made the adjustment, which has not and will not change American administration purpose to seek absolute security. This absolute security complex can be seen again from America quitted the Treaty on the Limitation of Anti—Ballistic Missile Systems (ABM), and develop Ballistic Missile Defense System. Realism dominated this process.
实际上,后冷战时期美国的核威慑政策,是对冷战时期美国核威慑政策的继承和发展,其最终目的都是为了确保美国的绝对国家安全。但是当美国寻求其国家绝对安全的理想遇到需要妥协的现实时,它就不得不对其核威慑政策作出策略性调整,但这种调整没有也不会改变其寻求绝对安全的本质。具体表现在冷战结束后,美国退出了《反导条约》,极力发展导弹防御系统。从冷战时期“报复性核威慑”转变为冷战后“拒止性核威慑”,以及后冷战时期美国“拒止性核威慑”能力的发展,体现了美国寻求国家绝对安全之路。在此过程中,现实主义是美国核威慑政策调整主要的指导思想。
Post-cold war era, international security environment has changed dramatically, the threat of global nuclear war has become remote. Accordingly, American administration has adjusted the nuclear deterrence policy, that is:reduce the quantity of offensive strategic weapons, reduce the role of deterrence by punishment in American national security, while develop the Ballistic Missile Defense System and hi-technology weapons which have dual—capable capability and raise the capability of deterrence by denial.
In fact, America's post cold war nuclear deterrence policies is the continuation and develop of cold war times, the ultimate purpose is to achieve America's absolute security. But when this realism confront the reality, the American administration has to made the adjustment, which has not and will not change American administration purpose to seek absolute security. This absolute security complex can be seen again from America quitted the Treaty on the Limitation of Anti—Ballistic Missile Systems (ABM), and develop Ballistic Missile Defense System. Realism dominated this process.
引文
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36有的学者认为苏朕紧随美国,也实现了报复性威慑向拒止性威慑的转变,有的认为苏联拒绝承认拒止性威慑思想。可参考王仲春.核武器核国家核战略[M].北京：时事出版社,2007年版,第105--109页。以及吴莼思威慑力量与导弹防御[M].北京：长征出版社,2001年版,第52-53页。
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39 Ibid, The White House, National Security Strategy of the United States, March 1990, pp.24,25.
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42 Ibid, The White House, National Security Strategy of the United States, August 1991, p.26.
43Ibid, The White House, Nationalse,Security Strategy of the United States, August 1991, p.27.
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49 Ibid, The White House, National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September 2002, p.15.
52 Ibid, The White House, National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September 2002, p.15.
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55 Ibid, Nuclear Posture Review[Excerpts] Submitted to Congress on 31 December 2001,8 January 2002, Nuclear Posture Review Report.
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63详细参见人民网：2001年12月13日美国宣布退出《反导条约》,http://www.people.com.cn/GB/historic/1213/5442.html
64 Presient Announces Progress in Missile Defense Capabilities, http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/12/20021217.html
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69 Ibid, Nuclear Posture Review Report, April 2010, p 15.
70 Ibid, Nuclear Posture Review Report, April 2010, pⅣ.
71可参见新华网,《美核弹井着火5天后才被发现损失百万美元》,http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2008-10/31/content_10287061.htm
72 Ibid, Nuclear Posture Review Report, April 2010, p 15.
73 Ibid, Nuclear Posture Review Report, April 2010, p 15.
74 Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report, February 2010, p.4. http://www.defense.gov/bmdr/docs/BMDR%20as%20of%2026JAN 10%200630 for%20web.pdf.
75 Ibid, Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report, February 2010, p 15.
76 Ibid, Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report, February 2010, p.17.
77 Ibid, Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report, February 2010, p i.
78 Ibid, Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report, February 2010, p23.
79详细可参见《美国推出全球打击系统 常规武器实现核威力》,http://www.cnr.cn/china/newszh/yaowen/201004/t20100426_506336601.html
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[1]Nuclear Posture Review Report, April 2010 http://www.defense.gov/npr/docs/2010%20nuclear%20posture%20review%20rep ort.pdf
[2]National Security Strategy, May 2010 http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/national_security_strateg y.pdf.
[3]Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report, February 2010 http://www.defense.gov/bmdr/docs/BMDR%20as%20of%2026J AN10%200630_f or%20web.pdf.
[4]Quadrennial Defense Review Report, February 2010 http://www.defense.gov/qdr/images/QDR_as_of_12Feb10_1000.pdf
[5]The National Intelligence Strategy of the United States of America, August 2009, http://www.dni.gov/reports/2009_NIS.pdf.
[6]The National Military Strategy of the United States of America 2011:Redifining America's Military Leadership http://www.jcs.mil/content/files/2011-02/020811084800_2011_NMS_-_08_FEB_2011.pdf
[7]Nuclear Posture Review extract from the 1995 Annual Defense Report http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/doctrine/dod/95_npr.htm.
[8]Nuclear Posture Review Report Foreword, http://www.fas.org/sgp/news/2002/01/npr-foreword.html
[9]Nuclear Posture Review extract from the 1995 Annual Defense Report http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/doctrine/dod/95_npr.htm.
[10]Nuclear Posture Review Report Foreword, http://www.fas.org/sgp/news/2002/01/npr-foreword.html
2安德烈·薄富尔.战略绪论.约米尼等著.范林森译编.西方战略经典[C].北京：时事出版社,2002年版,第1102页。
3安德烈·薄富尔.战略绪论.约米尼等著.范林森译编.西方战略经典[C].北京：时事出版社,2002年版,第1100—1107页。
4王仲春、夏立平.美国核力量与核战略[M].北京：国防大学出版社1995年版,第2页。
5吴纯思.威慑理论与导弹防御[M].北京：长征出版社,2001年版,第186-188页。有的学者也把报复性威慑叫做纯威慑、拒止性威慑叫实战威慑,虽然名称不同,但本质基本相同。
6 Stephen E. Ambrose, Rise to Globalism:American Foreign Policy since 1938, New York:Pengium Books,1985,p.71.
7 The Harvard Nuclear Study Group:Living with Nuclear Weapons, Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1983, p.84
8更多美国核威慑阶段讨论,可参见吴莼思.威慑理论与导弹防御。
9罗杰·斯皮德.秦高志译.八十年代战略威慑[M].北京：战士出版社,第9-10页。
10参见《美媒：中国导弹防御挑战美核威慑》,http://china.huanqiu.com/eyes_on_china/politics/2010-01/699980.html.
11王仲春.美国核力量与核战略[M].北京：国防大学出版社,1995年版,第2-3页。
12肯尼斯·华尔兹 信强译.国际政治理论[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2008年版,第185页。
13秦五青.权力·制度·文化：国际关系理论与方法研究文集[C].北京：北京大学出版社,2005年版,第30-38页。
14麦乔治·邦迪.楮广友等译.美国核战略[M].北京：世界知识出版社,1991年版,第89页。
15更多战争与道德的论述,可参见迈克尔·沃尔泽.任辉献译.正义与非正义战争—通过历史实例的道德论证[M].南京：江苏人民出版社,2008年版。
16麦乔治·邦迪.楮广友等泽.美国核战略[M].北京：世界知识出版社,1991年版,第98页
17 George F. Keman, The Nuclear Delusion:Soviet-American Relations in the Atomic Age,New York:Pantheon Books,1983, p.4.
18麦乔治·邦迪.楮广友等译.美国核战略[M].北京：世界知识出版社,1991年版,第323-324页。
19麦乔治·邦迪.楮广友等译.美国核战略[M].北京：世界知识出版社,1991年版,第320页。
20Jeffrey Porro (ed.), The Nuclear Age Reader,New York:Alfred A.Knoof,1983,p.243.
21资中筠主编.战后美国外交史[M].北京：世界知识出版社,1994年版,第252-255页。
22肯尼斯·华尔兹.信强译.国际政治理论[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2008年版,197页。
23基辛格.北京编译社译.核武器与对外政策[M].北京：世界知识出版社,1959年版,第161页。
24资中筠主编.战后美国外交史[M].北京：世界知识出版社,1994年版,第357页。
25 John Lewis Gaddis,Strategies of Containment, NewYork:Oxford University Press, p.218.
26麦乔治·邦迪.楮广友等译.美国核战略[M].北京：世界知识出版社,1991年版,第520页。
27麦乔治·邦迪.楮广友等译.美国核战略[M].北京：世界知识出版社,1991年版,第521页。
28 John Lewis Gaddis, Strategies of Containment, New York:Oxford University Press, p.220.
29杨效敏.核大国竞赛内幕[M].黑龙江人民出版社,2000年版,第297-300页。
30 Raymond L. Garthoff, Detente and Confrontation, Brookings Institution,1985, p.418.
31 Leon Sloss and Marc Dean Millot. "U.S. Nuclear Strategy in Evolution", Strategic Review, Vol.12, No.1, Winter 1984, p.22.
32王仲春、夏立平.美国核力量与核战略[M].国防大学出版社,1995年版,第114页。
33Desmond Ball, op.cit., p.19.
34王仲春、夏立平.美国核力量与核战略[M].国防大学出版社,1995年版,第117页。
35朱强国.美国战略导弹防御计划动因[M].世界知识出版社,2004年版,第28页。
36有的学者认为苏朕紧随美国,也实现了报复性威慑向拒止性威慑的转变,有的认为苏联拒绝承认拒止性威慑思想。可参考王仲春.核武器核国家核战略[M].北京：时事出版社,2007年版,第105--109页。以及吴莼思威慑力量与导弹防御[M].北京：长征出版社,2001年版,第52-53页。
37 The White House, National Security Strategy of the United States, March 1990, p.23, http://bushlibrary.tamu.edu/research/pdfs/national_security_strategy_90.pdf.
38 Ibid, The White House, National Security Strategy of the United States, March 1990, p.24..
39 Ibid, The White House, National Security Strategy of the United States, March 1990, pp.24,25.
40 The White Mouse, National Security Strategy of the United States, August 1991, Preface http://edocs.nps.edu/govpubs/wh/1991/nss 1991.pdf.
41 Ibid, The White House, National Security Strategy of the United States, August 1991, p.25.
42 Ibid, The White House, National Security Strategy of the United States, August 1991, p.26.
43Ibid, The White House, Nationalse,Security Strategy of the United States, August 1991, p.27.
44转引自姜振飞.冷战后的美国核战略与中国国家安全[M].北京：光明日报出版社,2010年版,第54页。
45 Daryl kimball, " Towards a New Foreign Policy ", Foreign Policy in Focus, Vol.4, No.25, September 1999, pp.1-3.
46 Walter Pincus, "U.S. Alters Estimate of Threats", The Washington Post, January 11,2002, p.A01.
47 The White House, National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September 2002, p.1. http://www.bits.de/NRANEU/others/strategy/nss02.pdf.
48 Department of defense, Nuclear Posture Review,1995 Annual Defense Report, http://www.dod.gov/execsec/adr95/strat. html
49 Ibid, The White House, National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September 2002, p.15.
52 Ibid, The White House, National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September 2002, p.15.
53 Nuclear Posture Review[Excerpts] Submitted to Congress on 31 December 2001,8 January 2002, Nuclear Posture Review Report, http://www.imi-online.de/download/Nuclear_Posture Review.pdf.
54转引自姜振飞.冷战后的美国核战略与中国国家安全[M].北京：光明日报出版社,2010年版,第42页。
55 Ibid, Nuclear Posture Review[Excerpts] Submitted to Congress on 31 December 2001,8 January 2002, Nuclear Posture Review Report.
56 The White House, A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement, February 1996, http://www.fas.org/spp/military/docops/national/1996stra.htm.
57 Nuclear Posture Review [extractedfrom the 1995 Annual Defense Report], http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/doctrine/dod/95 npr.htm.
58 Ibid, Nuclear Posture Review [extractedfrom the 1995 Annual Defense Report].
59王仲春、夏立平.美国核力量与核战略[M].国防大学出版社,1995年版,第91页。
60 Nuclear Posture Review extract from the 1995 Annual Defense Report, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/doctrine/dod/95 npr.htm.
61 Ibid, The White House, National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September 2002, p.14.
62 "Statement by George W. Bush," Disarmament Diplomacy, Issu No.46, May 2000.
63详细参见人民网：2001年12月13日美国宣布退出《反导条约》,http://www.people.com.cn/GB/historic/1213/5442.html
64 Presient Announces Progress in Missile Defense Capabilities, http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/12/20021217.html
65姜振飞.冷战后的美国核战略与中国国家安全[M].北京：光明日报出版社,2010年版,第173页。
66Sha Zukang, "Briefing on Missile Defence Issue",http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/9375.html,march 23,2001.
67 Ibid, Nuclear Posture Review Report, April 2010, pV.
68 National Security Strategy, May 2010, p.23. http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/national_security_strategy.pdf.
69 Ibid, Nuclear Posture Review Report, April 2010, p 15.
70 Ibid, Nuclear Posture Review Report, April 2010, pⅣ.
71可参见新华网,《美核弹井着火5天后才被发现损失百万美元》,http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2008-10/31/content_10287061.htm
72 Ibid, Nuclear Posture Review Report, April 2010, p 15.
73 Ibid, Nuclear Posture Review Report, April 2010, p 15.
74 Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report, February 2010, p.4. http://www.defense.gov/bmdr/docs/BMDR%20as%20of%2026JAN 10%200630 for%20web.pdf.
75 Ibid, Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report, February 2010, p 15.
76 Ibid, Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report, February 2010, p.17.
77 Ibid, Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report, February 2010, p i.
78 Ibid, Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report, February 2010, p23.
79详细可参见《美国推出全球打击系统 常规武器实现核威力》,http://www.cnr.cn/china/newszh/yaowen/201004/t20100426_506336601.html
80 "Investment in Conventional Prompt Global Strike", http://www.state.gov/t/avc/rls/152730.htm.
81 Quadrennial Defense Review Report, February 2010, pp.ⅲ-ⅳ. http://www.defense.gov/qdr/images/QDR_as_of_12Feb10_1000.pdf
82 The National Intelligence Strategy of the United States of America, August 2009, p.3. http://www.dni.gov/reports/2009_NIS.pdf.
83亨利·基辛格.顾淑馨、林添贵译.大外交[M].海口：海南出版社,1998年版,第754页。
88 Ibid, Nuclear Posture Review Report, April 2010, p. XI.
89 Interview with Bin Ladin:'Worlds Most Wanted Terrorist', ABC News, Jan 31,2003.
90 Mohamed ElBaradei, Annual Report to the General Assembly of the IAEA, June 2008, http:www.iaea. org/ About/Policy/Gc/Gc 52/Agenda
91 Barack Obama, " Benewing American Leadership", Foreign Affairs, Jul./Aug.,2007, Vol.86, Issue 4, p.2.
92卡内基和平基金会.中国军控与裁军协会等译.普遍履约：全新的核安全战略[C].北京：世界知识出版社,2005年版,第19页。
93 Ibid, The National Intelligence Strategy of the United States of America, August 2009, p.3.
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[1]Nuclear Posture Review Report, April 2010 http://www.defense.gov/npr/docs/2010%20nuclear%20posture%20review%20rep ort.pdf
[2]National Security Strategy, May 2010 http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/national_security_strateg y.pdf.
[3]Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report, February 2010 http://www.defense.gov/bmdr/docs/BMDR%20as%20of%2026J AN10%200630_f or%20web.pdf.
[4]Quadrennial Defense Review Report, February 2010 http://www.defense.gov/qdr/images/QDR_as_of_12Feb10_1000.pdf
[5]The National Intelligence Strategy of the United States of America, August 2009, http://www.dni.gov/reports/2009_NIS.pdf.
[6]The National Military Strategy of the United States of America 2011:Redifining America's Military Leadership http://www.jcs.mil/content/files/2011-02/020811084800_2011_NMS_-_08_FEB_2011.pdf
[7]Nuclear Posture Review extract from the 1995 Annual Defense Report http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/doctrine/dod/95_npr.htm.
[8]Nuclear Posture Review Report Foreword, http://www.fas.org/sgp/news/2002/01/npr-foreword.html
[9]Nuclear Posture Review extract from the 1995 Annual Defense Report http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/doctrine/dod/95_npr.htm.
[10]Nuclear Posture Review Report Foreword, http://www.fas.org/sgp/news/2002/01/npr-foreword.html