济南市快速公交系统规划后评价
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摘要
优先发展公共交通是保证城市交通可持续发展的关键。由于常规公交系统服务水平低,拥挤严重,公交准点率低,线网功能层次单一等；轨道交通具有耗资大、网络覆盖率低、建设周期长等缺点,并且有些城市由于受到地理条件等的限制,不适合发展轨道交通。快速公交系统凭借其简单的运营方式、相对较低的建设成本、较短的建造周期,以及具有大运量、快速、高效、环保等特点而成为城市公交系统的首选。
为了把握城市快速公交系统的整体发展水平,进一步规划、建设和管理BRT系统,需要对快速公交系统规划效果进行评价,即后评价。研究结果表明,运用灰色聚类法能够对城市快速公交系统的整体发展水平做出有效地评价。
本文分为理论研究和实证研究两个部分,重点是对济南市快速公交系统规划进行后评价。首先介绍快速公交系统的概念、构成、特点以及系统规划的内容、步骤,并对评价方法进行概述,提出灰色聚类法评价城市快速公交发展水平的原理和步骤。其次,总结国内外若干个城市在快速公交方面的经验,并从功能定位、系统构成、快速公交发展模式和特点等方面对于北京、昆明及杭州三个城市进行比较。再次,研究济南市“两横三纵”BRT系统的规划及运营,通过客流需求分析确定“两横三纵”BRT走廊,分析走廊客流特征,详述BRT走廊规划、线网布设、配套场站设施的建设情况。并进行BRT基础设施特征分析、运营特征分析及交通效益分析。最后,运用灰色聚类分析法,对于济南市目前的BRT系统规划效果进行评价,确定出济南市快速公交系统的发展水平等级为低,解释了决定这一评价结果的原因,并提出完善快速公交系统网络的建议。
It is suggested that priority to the development of public traffic is key to sustainable development of the urban traffic. Since the low level of conventional public transit system services, and its'serious congestion, low bus punctuality rate, single network functions and etc.; Moreover, rail transportation has a large cost, lower network coverage, long construction period and other shortcomings, and also some cities due to geographical conditions and other restrictions, not suitable for the development of rail transportation. BRT system, with its simple operating methods, the relatively low construction costs, shorter construction period, and has a large capacity, fast and efficient, environmental friendly and other advantages, has become the first choice.
In order to grasp the overall development level of Bus Rapid Transit system, and its'further planning, construction and management. Post-evaluation of BRT system planning is necessary. The results show that the gray clustering method can evaluate the overall development level of BRT system effectively.
This paper will be divided into theory research and empirical research, focuses on the post-evaluation of Bus Rapid Transit system planning in Jinan. Firstly, to narrate the concept, composition and characteristics of BRT system, and planning contents and steps. Also introduce evaluation theories, and the principle and process of grey clustering analysis. Secondly, summarizes experience of some cities in Bus Rapid Transit at home and abroad, and then compare Beijing, Kunming and Hangzhou city in BRT function, system structure and BRT development patterns and characters. Thirdly, study the planning process of Jinan "Three vertical and two horizontal" BRT system and its'operation. Through analysis the passenger flow characteristics to determine the BRT corridors, and then detail planning process of the BRT corridor, operation status of the line network and construction of the supporting facilities, focuses on the operation status. Finally, use grey clustering analysis to evaluate the planning effects of Jinan BRT system.The conclusion is Jinan city Bus Rapid Transit development levels is low, and then explain the result of this evaluation, and give some suggestions to improve Bus Rapid Transit network of Jinan city.
为了把握城市快速公交系统的整体发展水平,进一步规划、建设和管理BRT系统,需要对快速公交系统规划效果进行评价,即后评价。研究结果表明,运用灰色聚类法能够对城市快速公交系统的整体发展水平做出有效地评价。
本文分为理论研究和实证研究两个部分,重点是对济南市快速公交系统规划进行后评价。首先介绍快速公交系统的概念、构成、特点以及系统规划的内容、步骤,并对评价方法进行概述,提出灰色聚类法评价城市快速公交发展水平的原理和步骤。其次,总结国内外若干个城市在快速公交方面的经验,并从功能定位、系统构成、快速公交发展模式和特点等方面对于北京、昆明及杭州三个城市进行比较。再次,研究济南市“两横三纵”BRT系统的规划及运营,通过客流需求分析确定“两横三纵”BRT走廊,分析走廊客流特征,详述BRT走廊规划、线网布设、配套场站设施的建设情况。并进行BRT基础设施特征分析、运营特征分析及交通效益分析。最后,运用灰色聚类分析法,对于济南市目前的BRT系统规划效果进行评价,确定出济南市快速公交系统的发展水平等级为低,解释了决定这一评价结果的原因,并提出完善快速公交系统网络的建议。
It is suggested that priority to the development of public traffic is key to sustainable development of the urban traffic. Since the low level of conventional public transit system services, and its'serious congestion, low bus punctuality rate, single network functions and etc.; Moreover, rail transportation has a large cost, lower network coverage, long construction period and other shortcomings, and also some cities due to geographical conditions and other restrictions, not suitable for the development of rail transportation. BRT system, with its simple operating methods, the relatively low construction costs, shorter construction period, and has a large capacity, fast and efficient, environmental friendly and other advantages, has become the first choice.
In order to grasp the overall development level of Bus Rapid Transit system, and its'further planning, construction and management. Post-evaluation of BRT system planning is necessary. The results show that the gray clustering method can evaluate the overall development level of BRT system effectively.
This paper will be divided into theory research and empirical research, focuses on the post-evaluation of Bus Rapid Transit system planning in Jinan. Firstly, to narrate the concept, composition and characteristics of BRT system, and planning contents and steps. Also introduce evaluation theories, and the principle and process of grey clustering analysis. Secondly, summarizes experience of some cities in Bus Rapid Transit at home and abroad, and then compare Beijing, Kunming and Hangzhou city in BRT function, system structure and BRT development patterns and characters. Thirdly, study the planning process of Jinan "Three vertical and two horizontal" BRT system and its'operation. Through analysis the passenger flow characteristics to determine the BRT corridors, and then detail planning process of the BRT corridor, operation status of the line network and construction of the supporting facilities, focuses on the operation status. Finally, use grey clustering analysis to evaluate the planning effects of Jinan BRT system.The conclusion is Jinan city Bus Rapid Transit development levels is low, and then explain the result of this evaluation, and give some suggestions to improve Bus Rapid Transit network of Jinan city.
引文
[1]宋瑞.快速公交系统规划理论与方法.北京,科学出版社.2009,9.2
[2]北京交通发展研究中心.北京南中轴大容量快速公交线路示范工程预可行性研究报告简本[R].2003，9.14-58
[3]王建智.长春市公交系统评价指标体系研究[学位论文].吉林.吉林大学.2001.3-6
[4]李煜华,孙彩,孙凯.公共交通车辆的合理调度模型研究.科技与管理.2003,5(5).46-49
[5]王建.巴十快速交通指南(中国巴士快速交通协作研究报告CBR下,(纲要初稿)).中国网站,2003.12
[6]王亿方.快速公交系统规划方法研究.[学位论文].南京.东南大学.2005.1-2
[7]Wilbur Smith and Associates. The Potential of Bus Rapid Transit[R].1970.2
[8]Abdelghany K F.A modeling framework for bus rapid transit operations evaluation and service planning[C]//83th Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board, Washington D C,2004.12-13
[9]顾志康.大城市快速公交线网规划理论与方法研究[学位论文].南京.东南大学.2006.16-17
[10]Holeman E.Selecting corridors for bus rapid transit using a multicriteria method[C]//83th Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board, Washington D C,2004.6-7
[11]陈爱萍.快速公交规划的基本问题研究[学位论文].西安.长安大学.2004.5
[12]彭燕.BRT系统规划评价及其应用研究[学位论文].长沙.长沙理工大学.2006.3
[13]徐康明.中国快速公交系统的发展战略[C].北京快速公交系统国际研讨会.2003.8-10
[14]胡润州.快速公交系统综合效益成本比较分析[C].北京快速公交系统国际研讨会.2003.5-8
[15]陈燕凌,郭继孚,徐康明.北京大容量快速公交系统的发展思路和初步行动.城市交通.2004,2(2).25-28
[16]牟达.大连市快速公交规划及其效果评价[学位论文].大连.大连理.工：大学.2006.12.37-55
[17]李映红,孙慧娟.快速公交(BRT)服务水平评价研究.重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版).2010,29(2).285-290
[18]殷广涛.建设快速公共交通系统实现北京交通可持续发展[C].北京快速公交系统国际研讨会.2003.12-14
[19]王海霞,宋瑞,李明.城市快速公交系统发展水平评价方法研究.交通运输工程与信息学报.2008,6(3).77-84
[20]Transit Research Board of The National Academy, Transportation cooperation research program90,Bus Rapid Transit Volume 1:Case Studies In Bus Rapid Transit[R].2003.
[21]Walter Kulyk P.E., Matthew H. ITS Enhanced Bus Rapid Transit Systems, http://www.gulliver.trb. Org/conferences/VHA-BRT/
[22]Steven E., Shladover Sc.D. Bus Rapid Transit and Automation:opportunities for synergy. http://www.gulliver.trb. Org/conferences/VHA-BRT/
[23]Diaz R.B., Schneck D.C. Bus Rapid Transit Systems, technologies in the Americas:An overview[J].transportation search Record.2000.n1731.3-9
[24]美国TRB(Transportation Research Board).美国公交协作研究报告90—快速公交系统案例分析[T].2003.9.34-37
[25]于星涛.快速公交系统规划研究——以济南市为例[学位论文].上海.同济大学.2006,2.21-23
[26]何明,过秀成,陈永茂,过利超.改进灰色聚类法在城市交通安全水平评价中的应用.交通信息与安全.2010,28(1).104-107
[27]邓聚龙.灰预测与灰决策.武汉.华中科技大学出版社.2002.8-12
[28]冯利华,王基一,张明卓.环境质量的灰色聚类评价.环境保护科学.2000,4(26)：39-40
[29]邓聚龙.灰色系统基本方法.武汉.华中理工：大学出版社.1987.81-83
[30]马强.Bus Rapid Transit:城市公共交通系统的新选择[C]／／中国城市交通规划学术委员会年会暨第20次学术研讨会论文集.郑州.2003.32-34
[31]巴西库里提巴市官方网站：www.transport.Curitiba.gov.com..线路简介.2005
[32]张大奕.快速公交系统对车辆选型的影响研究[学位论文].上海.上海交通大学.2007,5.29
[33]George W G,徐康明.波哥大快速公交系统创收支平衡[C]／／北京快速公交系统发展战略研讨会文集.北京.2003.30-33
[34]李煜.西安市城市快速公交系统规划研究[学位论文].西安.西安建筑科技大学.2007,5.7
[35]http://image.baidu.com/i?ct=503316480&z=&tn=baiduimagedetail&word=%B2%A8%B8%E7 %B4%F3%DO%C2%CA%C0%BC%CD%B9%AB%BD%BB&in=12864&cl=2&lm=-1&pn=1&rn =1&di=5458581360&ln=136&fr=&fmq=&ic=&s=&se=&sme=0&tab=&width=&height=&face=&i s=&istype=#pn 1&-1
[36]济南市规划设计研究院.“两横三纵”快速公交系统与普通公交线网优化规划研究.2009(11).7
[37]http://baike.baidu.com/view/207305.htm
[38]济南市市政公用事业局,济南市规划设计研究院.济南市公交专项规划项目.2009
[39]山东大学交通规划设计研究中心,济南市公共交通总公司科学技术研究院.济南市快速公交(BRT)试运行阶段技术评价分析.2008.7.19-43
[40]济南市北园大街快速公交(BRT)工程可行性研究报告.工程编号2005R26
[41]陈茜,陈学武.城市常规公共交通发展水平综合评价指标体系研究.城市交通.2003,3(3).14-18
[42]姚雪珍.城市公共交通规划评价指标体系初探.西北建筑工程学院学报.1991,1(1).47-48
[43]王媛媛,陆化普.基于灰色聚类分析的城市交通路网综合评价方法研究.公路交通科技,2005,8(8).118-121
[44]陈钦水.城市地面快速公交网络系统规划研究[学位论文].西安.西安建筑科技大学,2004,7.53-54
[45]李煜华,孙凯.基于灰色聚类方法的城市公交发展水平综合评价.哈尔滨理工大学学报.2004,12(12).76-79
[46]李煜华,胡运权.灰色聚类法在城市公共交通发展水平评价中的应用.数学的实践与认识.2006,2(2).125-132
[2]北京交通发展研究中心.北京南中轴大容量快速公交线路示范工程预可行性研究报告简本[R].2003，9.14-58
[3]王建智.长春市公交系统评价指标体系研究[学位论文].吉林.吉林大学.2001.3-6
[4]李煜华,孙彩,孙凯.公共交通车辆的合理调度模型研究.科技与管理.2003,5(5).46-49
[5]王建.巴十快速交通指南(中国巴士快速交通协作研究报告CBR下,(纲要初稿)).中国网站,2003.12
[6]王亿方.快速公交系统规划方法研究.[学位论文].南京.东南大学.2005.1-2
[7]Wilbur Smith and Associates. The Potential of Bus Rapid Transit[R].1970.2
[8]Abdelghany K F.A modeling framework for bus rapid transit operations evaluation and service planning[C]//83th Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board, Washington D C,2004.12-13
[9]顾志康.大城市快速公交线网规划理论与方法研究[学位论文].南京.东南大学.2006.16-17
[10]Holeman E.Selecting corridors for bus rapid transit using a multicriteria method[C]//83th Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board, Washington D C,2004.6-7
[11]陈爱萍.快速公交规划的基本问题研究[学位论文].西安.长安大学.2004.5
[12]彭燕.BRT系统规划评价及其应用研究[学位论文].长沙.长沙理工大学.2006.3
[13]徐康明.中国快速公交系统的发展战略[C].北京快速公交系统国际研讨会.2003.8-10
[14]胡润州.快速公交系统综合效益成本比较分析[C].北京快速公交系统国际研讨会.2003.5-8
[15]陈燕凌,郭继孚,徐康明.北京大容量快速公交系统的发展思路和初步行动.城市交通.2004,2(2).25-28
[16]牟达.大连市快速公交规划及其效果评价[学位论文].大连.大连理.工：大学.2006.12.37-55
[17]李映红,孙慧娟.快速公交(BRT)服务水平评价研究.重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版).2010,29(2).285-290
[18]殷广涛.建设快速公共交通系统实现北京交通可持续发展[C].北京快速公交系统国际研讨会.2003.12-14
[19]王海霞,宋瑞,李明.城市快速公交系统发展水平评价方法研究.交通运输工程与信息学报.2008,6(3).77-84
[20]Transit Research Board of The National Academy, Transportation cooperation research program90,Bus Rapid Transit Volume 1:Case Studies In Bus Rapid Transit[R].2003.
[21]Walter Kulyk P.E., Matthew H. ITS Enhanced Bus Rapid Transit Systems, http://www.gulliver.trb. Org/conferences/VHA-BRT/
[22]Steven E., Shladover Sc.D. Bus Rapid Transit and Automation:opportunities for synergy. http://www.gulliver.trb. Org/conferences/VHA-BRT/
[23]Diaz R.B., Schneck D.C. Bus Rapid Transit Systems, technologies in the Americas:An overview[J].transportation search Record.2000.n1731.3-9
[24]美国TRB(Transportation Research Board).美国公交协作研究报告90—快速公交系统案例分析[T].2003.9.34-37
[25]于星涛.快速公交系统规划研究——以济南市为例[学位论文].上海.同济大学.2006,2.21-23
[26]何明,过秀成,陈永茂,过利超.改进灰色聚类法在城市交通安全水平评价中的应用.交通信息与安全.2010,28(1).104-107
[27]邓聚龙.灰预测与灰决策.武汉.华中科技大学出版社.2002.8-12
[28]冯利华,王基一,张明卓.环境质量的灰色聚类评价.环境保护科学.2000,4(26)：39-40
[29]邓聚龙.灰色系统基本方法.武汉.华中理工：大学出版社.1987.81-83
[30]马强.Bus Rapid Transit:城市公共交通系统的新选择[C]／／中国城市交通规划学术委员会年会暨第20次学术研讨会论文集.郑州.2003.32-34
[31]巴西库里提巴市官方网站：www.transport.Curitiba.gov.com..线路简介.2005
[32]张大奕.快速公交系统对车辆选型的影响研究[学位论文].上海.上海交通大学.2007,5.29
[33]George W G,徐康明.波哥大快速公交系统创收支平衡[C]／／北京快速公交系统发展战略研讨会文集.北京.2003.30-33
[34]李煜.西安市城市快速公交系统规划研究[学位论文].西安.西安建筑科技大学.2007,5.7
[35]http://image.baidu.com/i?ct=503316480&z=&tn=baiduimagedetail&word=%B2%A8%B8%E7 %B4%F3%DO%C2%CA%C0%BC%CD%B9%AB%BD%BB&in=12864&cl=2&lm=-1&pn=1&rn =1&di=5458581360&ln=136&fr=&fmq=&ic=&s=&se=&sme=0&tab=&width=&height=&face=&i s=&istype=#pn 1&-1
[36]济南市规划设计研究院.“两横三纵”快速公交系统与普通公交线网优化规划研究.2009(11).7
[37]http://baike.baidu.com/view/207305.htm
[38]济南市市政公用事业局,济南市规划设计研究院.济南市公交专项规划项目.2009
[39]山东大学交通规划设计研究中心,济南市公共交通总公司科学技术研究院.济南市快速公交(BRT)试运行阶段技术评价分析.2008.7.19-43
[40]济南市北园大街快速公交(BRT)工程可行性研究报告.工程编号2005R26
[41]陈茜,陈学武.城市常规公共交通发展水平综合评价指标体系研究.城市交通.2003,3(3).14-18
[42]姚雪珍.城市公共交通规划评价指标体系初探.西北建筑工程学院学报.1991,1(1).47-48
[43]王媛媛,陆化普.基于灰色聚类分析的城市交通路网综合评价方法研究.公路交通科技,2005,8(8).118-121
[44]陈钦水.城市地面快速公交网络系统规划研究[学位论文].西安.西安建筑科技大学,2004,7.53-54
[45]李煜华,孙凯.基于灰色聚类方法的城市公交发展水平综合评价.哈尔滨理工大学学报.2004,12(12).76-79
[46]李煜华,胡运权.灰色聚类法在城市公共交通发展水平评价中的应用.数学的实践与认识.2006,2(2).125-132