模糊FMECA在船舶主机系统中的应用研究
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摘要
安全是航运界关注的焦点,也是其面临的最主要问题,同时也是对船舶的最基本要求。国际海事组织已将综合安全评估(Formal Safety Assessment,简称FSA)引入海事界,FSA在制定安全规则、船舶安全营运管理、船舶设计中得到了广泛的应用。其中故障模式、影响和危害性分析(Failure Mode Effects andCriticality Analysis,简称FMECA)已经成为国内及国际航行高速船规范要求的分析技术。然而由于FMECA分析方法的本身特性及船舶系统的复杂性和特殊性,现有的分析多为定性分析,所以在此基础上引入模糊综合评判可以使得结果量化、精细化。因此,在我国船舶领域开展模糊FMECA的深入研究是非常必要的。
本文所做的主要工作如下:
第一、分析了采用FMECA方法对船舶主机系统进行评判的可行性,简单介绍了可靠性的基本理论和模糊综合评判方法,并重点介绍了FMECA方法。
第二、运用FMECA方法对船舶主机系统进行分析。设定了实施FMECA的边界条件,总结出主机各系统的故障模式,建立了FMECA表格,并通过专家调查表获得数据,计算出各故障模式的RPN值,再按照RPN值的大小对各故障的危害性进行排序。为使FMECA的结果更加精细,建立了模糊风险决策模型,进一步对主机各系统的整体可靠性进行综合评判。详细介绍了模糊综合评判和层次分析法,运用模糊综合评判方法将调查所得数据转化为与各故障模式相对应的模糊矩阵,并根据层次分析法获得各因素的权重分配,从而对主机各系统的可靠性进行综合评判。
第三、对“育鲲”轮教学实习船主机系统进行调研、分析研究,对上述方法进行实船应用,给出分析结果。
本文形成了一套对船舶主机系统进行模糊FMECA可靠性分析的方法,并且在实习船上得到了实践验证。希望本文的研究成果能对其他船舶主机系统及整个船舶的可靠性研究有所借鉴与启发,进而推进船舶可靠性工程的发展。
Safety is the focus and the most important issue in the filed of shipping. At the same time, it is the ultimate requirement for all kinds of ships. MO has brought in Formal Safety Assessment (FSA for short), which has been widely applied in the formulation of safety regulations, the management of safe shipping and the ship designing process. Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA for short) has become an efficient and common method for risk analysis both at home and abroad. However, most existing analyses are qualitative analyses, owning to the characteristic of FMECA and the complexity and particularity of marine systems. Since the application of Fuzzy FMECA could make the conclusion more quantitative and elaborate, profound research on it is necessary in the maritime field in China.
Main tasks of this thesis are as follows:
Firstly, this thesis analyzes the feasibility of using FMECA method on the safety assessment of the system in marine main engine, explains the basic theory of reliability and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation, and introduces FMECA method in detail.
Secondly, this thesis assesses the reliability of the main engine system by FMECA. It specifies the boundary before actualizing FMECA, summarizes the failure modes of the main engine systems, sets up FMECA tables, gains relevant data by investigation form, figures out the RPN values for every failure mode, and at last sequences of the criticality of each failure according the RPN values. Then, for the sake of making the results of FMECA more accurately, this thesis sets up the risk decision model of Fuzzy-FMECA and assesses the overall reliability of the main engine system further more. It introduces Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method and Analytic Hierarchy Process method in detail, transforms the investigated data to the corresponding fuzzy matrixes of each failure modes with Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method. It also gets the weight distribution of every failure mode with Analytic Hierarchy Process method, and assesses the overall reliability of the main engine systems.
Thirdly, in order to validate the Fuzzy-FMECA method, this thesis investigates and analyzes the "YUKUN" teaching-training vessel, and gives the analysis conclusion..
This thesis develops an effective method to do Fuzzy-FMECA for the main engine systems, which is verified on the teaching-training vessel. It is hoped that the research findings of this thesis can be of some help to the reliability research into main engine systems on other vessels, and also can foster the development of reliability engineering system.
本文所做的主要工作如下:
第一、分析了采用FMECA方法对船舶主机系统进行评判的可行性,简单介绍了可靠性的基本理论和模糊综合评判方法,并重点介绍了FMECA方法。
第二、运用FMECA方法对船舶主机系统进行分析。设定了实施FMECA的边界条件,总结出主机各系统的故障模式,建立了FMECA表格,并通过专家调查表获得数据,计算出各故障模式的RPN值,再按照RPN值的大小对各故障的危害性进行排序。为使FMECA的结果更加精细,建立了模糊风险决策模型,进一步对主机各系统的整体可靠性进行综合评判。详细介绍了模糊综合评判和层次分析法,运用模糊综合评判方法将调查所得数据转化为与各故障模式相对应的模糊矩阵,并根据层次分析法获得各因素的权重分配,从而对主机各系统的可靠性进行综合评判。
第三、对“育鲲”轮教学实习船主机系统进行调研、分析研究,对上述方法进行实船应用,给出分析结果。
本文形成了一套对船舶主机系统进行模糊FMECA可靠性分析的方法,并且在实习船上得到了实践验证。希望本文的研究成果能对其他船舶主机系统及整个船舶的可靠性研究有所借鉴与启发,进而推进船舶可靠性工程的发展。
Safety is the focus and the most important issue in the filed of shipping. At the same time, it is the ultimate requirement for all kinds of ships. MO has brought in Formal Safety Assessment (FSA for short), which has been widely applied in the formulation of safety regulations, the management of safe shipping and the ship designing process. Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA for short) has become an efficient and common method for risk analysis both at home and abroad. However, most existing analyses are qualitative analyses, owning to the characteristic of FMECA and the complexity and particularity of marine systems. Since the application of Fuzzy FMECA could make the conclusion more quantitative and elaborate, profound research on it is necessary in the maritime field in China.
Main tasks of this thesis are as follows:
Firstly, this thesis analyzes the feasibility of using FMECA method on the safety assessment of the system in marine main engine, explains the basic theory of reliability and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation, and introduces FMECA method in detail.
Secondly, this thesis assesses the reliability of the main engine system by FMECA. It specifies the boundary before actualizing FMECA, summarizes the failure modes of the main engine systems, sets up FMECA tables, gains relevant data by investigation form, figures out the RPN values for every failure mode, and at last sequences of the criticality of each failure according the RPN values. Then, for the sake of making the results of FMECA more accurately, this thesis sets up the risk decision model of Fuzzy-FMECA and assesses the overall reliability of the main engine system further more. It introduces Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method and Analytic Hierarchy Process method in detail, transforms the investigated data to the corresponding fuzzy matrixes of each failure modes with Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method. It also gets the weight distribution of every failure mode with Analytic Hierarchy Process method, and assesses the overall reliability of the main engine systems.
Thirdly, in order to validate the Fuzzy-FMECA method, this thesis investigates and analyzes the "YUKUN" teaching-training vessel, and gives the analysis conclusion..
This thesis develops an effective method to do Fuzzy-FMECA for the main engine systems, which is verified on the teaching-training vessel. It is hoped that the research findings of this thesis can be of some help to the reliability research into main engine systems on other vessels, and also can foster the development of reliability engineering system.
引文
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[36]Chao Zhang,Cunbao Ma,Zhenbao Liu,JiadongXu.A New Multi-attribute Optimal Selecting Method for Weapon System through Trapezoidal Fuzzy Analytic Process and Delphi.Intelligent Control and Automation,2006.WCICA 2006.The Sixth World Congress on Volume 2,21-23 June 2006 Pages:7821-7825.
[37]Jingyao Huang,Wenhua Huang,Renming Wang.The analytic hierarchy process and its application to three gorges ship gates running.Chinese Control Conference,2006 Aug.2006 Pages:589-592.
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[2]李岳春,郭于光 编译.船用柴油机的可靠性.上海:上海交通大学出版社,1993.
[3]中国船级社.国内海船入级规则.北京:人民交通出版社,2005.
[4]IMO文件.MSC68/WP.13 ANNEX2.“Interim Guidelines for the Application of Formal Safety Assessment(FEA)to the IMO Rule-Making Process”.
[5]IMO文件.MSC68/INF.13“Formal Safety Assessment Methodology”.
[6]竹建福等.FMEA在对船舶系统风险评估中的应用.世界海运,2006.4.
[7]崔文彬,魏一.船舶安全评估使用FMEA方法的分析及改进.航海技术,2006,NO.5.
[8]John Farquharson,Joel McDuffee.FMEA of Marine Systems:Moving from Prescriptive to Risk-based Design and Classification.2002 Proceeding Annual Reliability and Maintainability,Symposium.
[9]刘寅普,吴孟达.模糊理论及其应用.长沙:国防科技大学出版社,1998.
[10]陈水利,李敬功,王向公.模糊理论及其应用.北京:科学出版社,2005.
[11]汪应洛.系统工程(第三版).北京:机械工业出版社,2003.
[12]汪树玉,刘国华.系统分析.杭州:浙江大学出版社,2002:326.
[13]Jackson T,Warren B.Standardizing the FMECA format:a guideline for Air Force contractors[A],Reliability and Maintainability Symposium,Annual 16-19 Jan.1995 Pages:66-73.
[14]吴德铭,李守仁,王善等.可靠性设计.哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学出版社,1995.
[15]李海泉.系统可靠性分析与设计.北京:科学出版社,2003.
[16]冯德益,楼世博等.模糊数学方法与应用.地震出版社,1983:73.
[17]Mizumoto,Masaharu.Trends and Perspectives of Fuzzy Engineering.Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics,Vol.7,No.1,1993.
[18]王梓坤.今日数学及其应用.在中科院数理学部的咨询报告,1993.1.
[19](日)水木雅晴.模糊数学及其应用.科学出版社,1986:1.
[20]谭跃进.定量分析方法.中国人民大学出版社,2002:102-134.
[21]Dezhen Zhang,Tian Chang,Rui Li,Xiaopeng Wei.Evaluating design concepts using fuzzy arithmetic operations.Intelligent Systems Design and Applications,2006.ISDA 06 Sixth International Conference on Volume 1,Oct.2006 Pages:254-259.
[22]郭宇澄,居滋培,秦永烈.模糊数学在可靠性退化及FMEA中的应用研究.上海机械学院学报,Vol.12 No.2 1990.
[23]Lin Wang,Yurong Zeng,Dongfeng Zhang.A New Approach to Evaluating the Criticality Class of Spare Parts Incorporating Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation and Grey Relational Analysis.Computational Intelligence and Security,2006.International Conference on Volume 1,Nov.2006 Pages:17-21.
[24]Xiaodong Yuan,Jianfeng Zhao,Guoqing Tang,Zhengzhong Han.Multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of power quality.Electric Utility Deregulation, Restructuring and Power Technologies,2004.Proceeding of the 2004 IEEE International Conference on Volume 1,5-8 April 2004 Pages:290-294 Vol.1.
[25]Cui,X.,Liu,H.J.,Ying,L.M.,Liao,Q.F.Multi-level Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Power Supply Service Quality.Power System Technology,2006.Power International Conference on Oct.2006 Pages:1-6.
[26]李祝清.船舶机舱设备维修分类研究:(硕士学位论文).大连:大连海事大学,2006.
[27]范中洲.散货船舶安全评价数学模型的研究:(硕士学位论文).大连:大连海事大学,2002.
[28]陈玉明.孤东滩海油田原油外输方案模糊综合评判研究:(硕士学位论文).大连:大连理工大学,2002.
[29]李昕.渤海湾客滚船航行安全评价的研究:(硕士学位论文).大连:大连海事大学,2003.
[30]张凯.变电构架可靠性模糊综合评判研究:(硕士学位论文).郑州:郑州大学,2003.
[31]Jianshu Gao,Xudong Shi,Liwen Wang,Jianli Li.Study on Machine Equipment Selection in Dynamic Alliance Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation.Intelligent Control and Automation,2006.WCICA 2006.The Sixth World Congress on Volume 2,21-23 June 2006 Pages:6787-6791.
[32]张运杰.模糊数学基础.大连:大连海事大学教研室,1996.
[33]黄飞.船舶轮机“人-机”一体化管理模式的研究:(硕士学位论文).大连:大连海事大学,2005.
[34]Musrafa M.A.,Al-Bahar J.F.Project risk assessment using the analytic hierarchy process.Engineering Management,IEEE Transactions on Volume 38,Issue 1,Feb.1991 Pages:46-52.
[35]Zhiling Lin,LiqunGao,Dapeng Zhang,Ping Ren,Yang Li.Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process in Power Lines Maintenance.Intelligent Control and Automation,2006.WCICA 2006.The Sixth World Congress on Volume 2,21-23 June 2006 Pages:7596-7599.
[36]Chao Zhang,Cunbao Ma,Zhenbao Liu,JiadongXu.A New Multi-attribute Optimal Selecting Method for Weapon System through Trapezoidal Fuzzy Analytic Process and Delphi.Intelligent Control and Automation,2006.WCICA 2006.The Sixth World Congress on Volume 2,21-23 June 2006 Pages:7821-7825.
[37]Jingyao Huang,Wenhua Huang,Renming Wang.The analytic hierarchy process and its application to three gorges ship gates running.Chinese Control Conference,2006 Aug.2006 Pages:589-592.
[38]左晓强.搁浅船舶安全性综合评判:(硕士学位论文).大连:大连海事大学,2000.
[39]郭立.人机结合层次分析-灰色模糊综合评判方法的研究:(硕士学位论文).大连:大连理工大学,2005.
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