我国民用建筑运行能耗预测方法及其应用研究
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摘要
我国民用建筑数量巨大,民用建筑运行能耗增长迅速,2009年底已占全社会终端能耗的30%以上,未来随着经济的发展和城镇化进程的不断加快,人民生活水平的日益提高,这种快速增长的态势仍将持续一段时间。民用建筑运行能耗的巨大需求将会对我国的能源供应、能源安全和资源环境形成巨大压力。在这种背景下,科学、合理的预测民用建筑运行能耗,对于完善民用建筑运行能耗研究的理论体系,适应未来民用建筑运行能耗的发展需求,实现我国的国家减排目标具有重要意义。
本文运用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法对民用建筑运行能耗的预测方法进行了研究,分析了民用建筑运行能耗的宏观影响因素,建立了民用建筑运行能耗的宏观预测模型并完成了实证分析,对未来的民用建筑运行能耗需求进行了预测,提出了我国民用建筑运行能耗可持续发展的政策建议。本文的主要创新性工作概括如下：
1.基于系统工程理论分析了民用建筑运行能耗的主要宏观影响因素。首先,建立了民用建筑运行能耗的宏观影响因素指标体系,然后应用灰色系统理论和灰色关联度分析方法确定了民用建筑运行能耗与各影响因素间的关联度大小,研究表明,民用建筑运行能耗与指标体系中的各宏观影响因素间均具有比较高的关联度。
2.应用计量经济学中的协整理论,构建了民用建筑运行能耗的协整分析预测模型及误差修正模型。研究了民用建筑运行能耗及其宏观影响因素的长期均衡关系和短期动态变化,定量分析了各影响因素与民用建筑运行能耗间的关系。研究表明民用建筑运行能耗与终端能耗总量、第三产业增加值占GDP的比重、城镇化率、城乡居民家庭人均生活消费支出、第三产业万元增加值能耗、年末累计民用建筑竣工总量间存在长期均衡关系和短期动态关系。应用统计学方法对预测模型的有效性、可靠性和预测能力进行了实证。
3.应用民用建筑运行能耗协整分析模型和情景分析法,预测了2015和2020年民用建筑运行能耗。通过设定经济社会、人民生活未来发展和碳减排的不同情景,结合预测模型,预测了不同情景下的民用建筑运行能耗。
4.根据理论分析和模型预测结果,提出了我国民用建筑运行能耗可持续发展的政策建议。
China has a huge number of civil buildings and has grown rapidly. By the end of2009, civil building energy consumption has accounted for over30%of total social terminal energy consumption. In future, with accelerating economic development and urbanization and increasing people's living standards, such growing momentum will continue for a period of time. Huge demands of civil buildings for energy consumption have exerted great pressure on China's energy supply, energy security and resource environment. Against this backdrop, scientific and reasonable forecast of energy consumption will be of great significance to improve theoretical system for civil building energy consumption study, meet the future development needs of civil building energy consumption and achieve China's emission reduction targets.
By using both qualitative and quantitative analysis method, the paper studies on methods of forecasting civil building energy consumption, analyze macro factors affecting civil building energy consumption, establishes model of predicting civil building energy consumption and completes empirical analysis, predicts future demands of civil building energy consumption and proposes policy suggestions for sustainable development of China's civil building energy consumption. The main innovative works are summarized as follows:
1. Based on system engineering theories, the paper analyzes major macroeconomic factors affecting civil building energy consumption. First, it establishes indicator system of micro factors affecting civil building energy consumption and uses gray system theory and gray correlation analysis method to determine the correlation between civil building energy consumption. Studies show that civil building energy consumption has relatively high correlation with various micro factors in indicator system.
2. Applies cointegration theory of econometrics to build cointegration analysis forecast model and error correction model for civil building energy consumption. It studies long-run equilibrium relationship and short-term dynamics between civil building energy consumption and affecting factors and conducts quantitative analysis on relationship between various factors and civil building energy consumption. Studies show that civil building energy consumption has long-run equilibrium and short-term dynamic relationship with total terminal energy consumption, ratio of tertiary industry increase to GDP, urbanization ratio, per capita household consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents, energy consumption per million added value in tertiary industry and year-end total civil building completion amount. It applies statistical reliability to prove accuracy of the prediction model and prediction ability of prediction model by evaluation methods within and outside samples.
3. Applies civil building energy consumption cointegration analysis model and scenario analysis to forecast civil building energy consumption from2015to2020. By setting different scenarios of future economic, social and people's lives development and carbon emissions reduction and combining with predictive models, it predicts civil building energy consumption under different scenarios.
4. According to empirical analysis and model predictions, it proposes policy suggestions for sustainable development of China's civil building energy consumption.
本文运用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法对民用建筑运行能耗的预测方法进行了研究,分析了民用建筑运行能耗的宏观影响因素,建立了民用建筑运行能耗的宏观预测模型并完成了实证分析,对未来的民用建筑运行能耗需求进行了预测,提出了我国民用建筑运行能耗可持续发展的政策建议。本文的主要创新性工作概括如下：
1.基于系统工程理论分析了民用建筑运行能耗的主要宏观影响因素。首先,建立了民用建筑运行能耗的宏观影响因素指标体系,然后应用灰色系统理论和灰色关联度分析方法确定了民用建筑运行能耗与各影响因素间的关联度大小,研究表明,民用建筑运行能耗与指标体系中的各宏观影响因素间均具有比较高的关联度。
2.应用计量经济学中的协整理论,构建了民用建筑运行能耗的协整分析预测模型及误差修正模型。研究了民用建筑运行能耗及其宏观影响因素的长期均衡关系和短期动态变化,定量分析了各影响因素与民用建筑运行能耗间的关系。研究表明民用建筑运行能耗与终端能耗总量、第三产业增加值占GDP的比重、城镇化率、城乡居民家庭人均生活消费支出、第三产业万元增加值能耗、年末累计民用建筑竣工总量间存在长期均衡关系和短期动态关系。应用统计学方法对预测模型的有效性、可靠性和预测能力进行了实证。
3.应用民用建筑运行能耗协整分析模型和情景分析法,预测了2015和2020年民用建筑运行能耗。通过设定经济社会、人民生活未来发展和碳减排的不同情景,结合预测模型,预测了不同情景下的民用建筑运行能耗。
4.根据理论分析和模型预测结果,提出了我国民用建筑运行能耗可持续发展的政策建议。
China has a huge number of civil buildings and has grown rapidly. By the end of2009, civil building energy consumption has accounted for over30%of total social terminal energy consumption. In future, with accelerating economic development and urbanization and increasing people's living standards, such growing momentum will continue for a period of time. Huge demands of civil buildings for energy consumption have exerted great pressure on China's energy supply, energy security and resource environment. Against this backdrop, scientific and reasonable forecast of energy consumption will be of great significance to improve theoretical system for civil building energy consumption study, meet the future development needs of civil building energy consumption and achieve China's emission reduction targets.
By using both qualitative and quantitative analysis method, the paper studies on methods of forecasting civil building energy consumption, analyze macro factors affecting civil building energy consumption, establishes model of predicting civil building energy consumption and completes empirical analysis, predicts future demands of civil building energy consumption and proposes policy suggestions for sustainable development of China's civil building energy consumption. The main innovative works are summarized as follows:
1. Based on system engineering theories, the paper analyzes major macroeconomic factors affecting civil building energy consumption. First, it establishes indicator system of micro factors affecting civil building energy consumption and uses gray system theory and gray correlation analysis method to determine the correlation between civil building energy consumption. Studies show that civil building energy consumption has relatively high correlation with various micro factors in indicator system.
2. Applies cointegration theory of econometrics to build cointegration analysis forecast model and error correction model for civil building energy consumption. It studies long-run equilibrium relationship and short-term dynamics between civil building energy consumption and affecting factors and conducts quantitative analysis on relationship between various factors and civil building energy consumption. Studies show that civil building energy consumption has long-run equilibrium and short-term dynamic relationship with total terminal energy consumption, ratio of tertiary industry increase to GDP, urbanization ratio, per capita household consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents, energy consumption per million added value in tertiary industry and year-end total civil building completion amount. It applies statistical reliability to prove accuracy of the prediction model and prediction ability of prediction model by evaluation methods within and outside samples.
3. Applies civil building energy consumption cointegration analysis model and scenario analysis to forecast civil building energy consumption from2015to2020. By setting different scenarios of future economic, social and people's lives development and carbon emissions reduction and combining with predictive models, it predicts civil building energy consumption under different scenarios.
4. According to empirical analysis and model predictions, it proposes policy suggestions for sustainable development of China's civil building energy consumption.
引文
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