我国进口原油海上运输安全系统评价及预警研究
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摘要
2010年1月27日,国家能源委员会成立,表明中国正从更高的全球视野来审视能源的战略地位,保证国家能源安全。近年来,由于交通运输、农业机具的大量增加,工业部门用煤限制加大,加速了原油的消费,为了弥补国内原油生产能力的不足,使得近年来原油进口量总体上呈迅速攀升的趋势,据海关统计2012年我国原油进口量已达到2.71亿吨,原油对外依存度为56.4%。原油贸易90%以上是由海上运输完成的,然而我国“国油国运”比例却远低于美国、日本、韩国等原油进口国,这使得我国原油运输长期以来受制于人。较高的进口依存度,加之变幻莫测的国际形势,特别是原油产国的局势变动,对我国原油进口安全提出了严峻的挑战。因此,对我国现阶段进口原油海上运输安全和未来发展趋势进行分析研究,建立我国进口原油海上运输安全评价与预警系统已成为保障我国经济稳定发展亟待解决的问题。
本文在分析了1996年至2012年我国原油进口的海运量需求情况的基础上运用趋势外推方法、灰色预测和BP神经网络的的组合预测模型,对2013年至2017年我国原油进口海运量进行预测,运用二次曲线趋势外推法、线性二次移动平均法、线性二次指数平滑法等预测方法,对2013年至2017年我国各原油进口海运航线上的海运需求量进行预测。在对我国油轮船队运力分析的基础上,建立基于承运份额考虑的油轮船队多阶段动态规划数学模型,为我国原油进口海运船队规模优化提供决策参考。然后系统分析了我国原油进口海运安全的影响因素,构建了我国原油进口海运安全评价体系,并应用基于云模型的综合评价方法对目前我国原油进口海运安全系统进行评价。最后,建立了我国原油进口海运安全预警模型,运用Visual Basic6.0编程语言建立了我国原油进口海运安全预警系统,对未来我国原油进口海运安全的发展趋势进行预测,并分别根据五个预警子系统预警分析结果,提出了保障我国原油进口海运安全的预控措施和保障机制。上述研究成果具有重要的理论与现实意义。
The National Energy Commission was established on January27,2012, which indicating that China is moving from a higher global perspective to examine the strategic position of energy, to ensure national energy security. In recent years, the substantial increase of transportation and agricultural machinery, and the increase restrictions of coal use in industrial sector, accelerate the consumption of crude oil. In order to compensate for the lack of domestic crude oil production capacity, the overall trend of crude oil imports volume showed a rapid increase in recent years. According to Customs statistics, China's crude oil import volume has reached271million tons and dependence on foreign oil was56.4%in2012. Above90%crude oil trading was completed transported by maritime, however, China's "national oil fortunes" ratio is far below the United States, Japan, Korea and other oil importing countries, which makes China's crude oil transportation has been controlled by others in a long time. Higher import dependence combined with the vagaries of international situation, especially the situation changes in crude oil producing countries, poses a severe challenge to China's crude oil import security. Therefore, in order to guarantee the steady development of our economic, it is an urgent problem to study and analyze the present stage and future trend of transportation safety of China's crude oil imports, and establish the safety evaluation and early warning system of China's imported crude oil transportation.
Based on the analysis of China's seaborne crude oil import demands from1996to2012, using Combination of trend extrapolation method, gray prediction and BP neural network forecasting model to predict the volume of China's seaborne crude oil imports from2013to2017. And using quadratic trend extrapolation, linear quadratic moving average method, and linear quadratic exponential smoothing forecasting methods to forecast the crude oil shipping demand of each routes from2013to2017. Based on the analysis of our tanker fleet capacity, this paper established a multi-stage dynamic programming model to optimize the tanker fleet size considering the carriage share. Then Systematically analyzes the factors that influence the safety of China's imported crude oil transportation. Security evaluation system of China's crude oil import transportation is constructed. This paper gives the safety evaluation about China's crude oil imports transportation by applying the cloud model based comprehensive evaluation method. Finally, the maritime safety warning model is established. It develops the China's crude oil imports maritime safety warning system by using Visual Basic6.0programming language. Using this system it forecasts the future development trend of China's crude oil imports maritime security. Based on the forewarning analysis results of these five warning subsystem, this paper proposes some pre-control measures and safeguard mechanisms to safeguard China's crude oil imports maritime safety. The research results have important theoretical and practical significance.
本文在分析了1996年至2012年我国原油进口的海运量需求情况的基础上运用趋势外推方法、灰色预测和BP神经网络的的组合预测模型,对2013年至2017年我国原油进口海运量进行预测,运用二次曲线趋势外推法、线性二次移动平均法、线性二次指数平滑法等预测方法,对2013年至2017年我国各原油进口海运航线上的海运需求量进行预测。在对我国油轮船队运力分析的基础上,建立基于承运份额考虑的油轮船队多阶段动态规划数学模型,为我国原油进口海运船队规模优化提供决策参考。然后系统分析了我国原油进口海运安全的影响因素,构建了我国原油进口海运安全评价体系,并应用基于云模型的综合评价方法对目前我国原油进口海运安全系统进行评价。最后,建立了我国原油进口海运安全预警模型,运用Visual Basic6.0编程语言建立了我国原油进口海运安全预警系统,对未来我国原油进口海运安全的发展趋势进行预测,并分别根据五个预警子系统预警分析结果,提出了保障我国原油进口海运安全的预控措施和保障机制。上述研究成果具有重要的理论与现实意义。
The National Energy Commission was established on January27,2012, which indicating that China is moving from a higher global perspective to examine the strategic position of energy, to ensure national energy security. In recent years, the substantial increase of transportation and agricultural machinery, and the increase restrictions of coal use in industrial sector, accelerate the consumption of crude oil. In order to compensate for the lack of domestic crude oil production capacity, the overall trend of crude oil imports volume showed a rapid increase in recent years. According to Customs statistics, China's crude oil import volume has reached271million tons and dependence on foreign oil was56.4%in2012. Above90%crude oil trading was completed transported by maritime, however, China's "national oil fortunes" ratio is far below the United States, Japan, Korea and other oil importing countries, which makes China's crude oil transportation has been controlled by others in a long time. Higher import dependence combined with the vagaries of international situation, especially the situation changes in crude oil producing countries, poses a severe challenge to China's crude oil import security. Therefore, in order to guarantee the steady development of our economic, it is an urgent problem to study and analyze the present stage and future trend of transportation safety of China's crude oil imports, and establish the safety evaluation and early warning system of China's imported crude oil transportation.
Based on the analysis of China's seaborne crude oil import demands from1996to2012, using Combination of trend extrapolation method, gray prediction and BP neural network forecasting model to predict the volume of China's seaborne crude oil imports from2013to2017. And using quadratic trend extrapolation, linear quadratic moving average method, and linear quadratic exponential smoothing forecasting methods to forecast the crude oil shipping demand of each routes from2013to2017. Based on the analysis of our tanker fleet capacity, this paper established a multi-stage dynamic programming model to optimize the tanker fleet size considering the carriage share. Then Systematically analyzes the factors that influence the safety of China's imported crude oil transportation. Security evaluation system of China's crude oil import transportation is constructed. This paper gives the safety evaluation about China's crude oil imports transportation by applying the cloud model based comprehensive evaluation method. Finally, the maritime safety warning model is established. It develops the China's crude oil imports maritime safety warning system by using Visual Basic6.0programming language. Using this system it forecasts the future development trend of China's crude oil imports maritime security. Based on the forewarning analysis results of these five warning subsystem, this paper proposes some pre-control measures and safeguard mechanisms to safeguard China's crude oil imports maritime safety. The research results have important theoretical and practical significance.
引文
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