中国上市公司可持续增长与公司三大能力平衡关系的实证研究
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摘要
本文首先在评述企业持续发展理论的基础上，对上市公司可持续增长的内部和外部影响因素进行了深刻的分析。然后借助美国资深财务学家罗伯特·希金斯和詹姆斯·范霍恩的可持续增长模型，选择我国1994年底以前在上海、深圳证券交易所上市的282家A股上市公司为研究对象，运用均值检验和威尔科克森的数理统计方法检验了我国上市公司1994～2000年度各行业的可持续增长的情况。本文还采用主成份分析法和多元回归的方法，确定和解释了影响我国上市公司可持续增长的主成份因素，并研究上市公司可持续增长与公司营运能力、偿债能力和盈利能力的平衡关系。最后在分析目前我国上市公司可持续增长的现状及其存在的问题的基础上，对上市公司如何保持持续增长提出笔者的一些对策建议。
全文共分五个部份：第一部份介绍了本文的研究意义以及目前国内外对企业可持续增长理论的研究现状；第二部份对企业可持续增长模型进行了简要的评述，并对影响我国上市公司可持续增长的综合因素进行了分析；第三部份对我国上市公司是否实现了可持续增长进行了实证检验；第四部份对我国上市公司可持续增长的主因素进行了实证检验；第五部份对我国上市公司的现状及其存在的问题进行了描述，并提出相应的对策建议。本文研究发现：
(1)如果实际销售收入增长率与可持续增长率(SGR)不一致，则往往意味着负债比率的失控，即公司未实现可持续增长。
(2)电子电器行业实现了可持续增长，其余行业均未实现可持续增长。
(3)轻工行业和农业上市公司投资不足，其余行业上市公司投资过度。
(4)公司可持续增长率与资产负债率成反比，与流动比率、速动比率成正比。
(5)上市公司的可持续增长比率与公司盈利能力正相关，即盈利率越高，可持续增长比率也越高。
(6)除商业行业外，其余行业的上市公司可持续增长率与成长能力正相关。
(7)除商业行业外，不论是样本整体还是分行业、分规模，上市公司的可持续增长率均与营运能力正相关。
This paper introduces the theory of sustainable growth of companies and meanwhile thoroughly analyzes the subjective and objective factors affecting sustainable growth of listed companies in China.Then with the sample of Chinese A-stock listed companies which appear on Stock Exchange of Shanghai and Shenzhen before 1994,using sustainable growth model brought forward by Robert Higgins and James Van Herne and the mathematical statistic methods of means and Wilcoxon.This paper tests the sustainable growth status of all sort of listed companies in China during the period from 1994 to 2000.Meanwhile an empirical analysis is made in this paper by the factor method and regression to find out equilibrium relation among sustainable growth of Chinese listed companies profitability capability of debt-repayment and capability of operation. At last this paper puts forward some advice by examining the present situation and the unsettled problems of sustainable growth of the listed companies in China.
This paper includes five parts,In the first part,it introduces the research purpose and the present situation of domestic and overseas,In the second part,it introduces the theory of sustainable growth of companies and analyzes the composite factors of sustainable growth of listed companies in China,In the third part,it tests whether Chinese listed companies realize the sustainable growth or not. In the fourth part,it makes an empirical analysis on the principal components of sustainable growth of listed companies in China,In the fifth part,it describes the present situation and the unsettled problems of sustainable growth of the listed companies in China and put forward some advice. This paper discover:
(1)If the growth rate in sales revenue and sustainable growth rate are inconsistent,the asset-debt ratio is out of control. That is,the sustainable growth fails to be fulfilled.
(2)The electronic industry has seen the sustainable growth,while the others haven't.
(3)Investment in light industry and agricultural listed companies is inadequate,whereas in others it is excessive.
(4)The sustainable growth rate of a listed company is in inverse proportion to asset-debt ratio,but in direct proportion to current debt ratio as well as acid test ration
(5)There is a positive correlation between the sustainable growth rate of a listed
company and its profitability. That's to say,the higher earning rate,the higher sustainable growth rate.
(6)The sustainable growth rate of all listed firms other than those of the commerce industry is positively correlated to the growth capacity.
(7)Apart from the commerce industry,there is a positive correlation between the sustainable growth and the operation capability of the listed companies,regardless of their integral sample,industries sample and scale sample.
全文共分五个部份：第一部份介绍了本文的研究意义以及目前国内外对企业可持续增长理论的研究现状；第二部份对企业可持续增长模型进行了简要的评述，并对影响我国上市公司可持续增长的综合因素进行了分析；第三部份对我国上市公司是否实现了可持续增长进行了实证检验；第四部份对我国上市公司可持续增长的主因素进行了实证检验；第五部份对我国上市公司的现状及其存在的问题进行了描述，并提出相应的对策建议。本文研究发现：
(1)如果实际销售收入增长率与可持续增长率(SGR)不一致，则往往意味着负债比率的失控，即公司未实现可持续增长。
(2)电子电器行业实现了可持续增长，其余行业均未实现可持续增长。
(3)轻工行业和农业上市公司投资不足，其余行业上市公司投资过度。
(4)公司可持续增长率与资产负债率成反比，与流动比率、速动比率成正比。
(5)上市公司的可持续增长比率与公司盈利能力正相关，即盈利率越高，可持续增长比率也越高。
(6)除商业行业外，其余行业的上市公司可持续增长率与成长能力正相关。
(7)除商业行业外，不论是样本整体还是分行业、分规模，上市公司的可持续增长率均与营运能力正相关。
This paper introduces the theory of sustainable growth of companies and meanwhile thoroughly analyzes the subjective and objective factors affecting sustainable growth of listed companies in China.Then with the sample of Chinese A-stock listed companies which appear on Stock Exchange of Shanghai and Shenzhen before 1994,using sustainable growth model brought forward by Robert Higgins and James Van Herne and the mathematical statistic methods of means and Wilcoxon.This paper tests the sustainable growth status of all sort of listed companies in China during the period from 1994 to 2000.Meanwhile an empirical analysis is made in this paper by the factor method and regression to find out equilibrium relation among sustainable growth of Chinese listed companies profitability capability of debt-repayment and capability of operation. At last this paper puts forward some advice by examining the present situation and the unsettled problems of sustainable growth of the listed companies in China.
This paper includes five parts,In the first part,it introduces the research purpose and the present situation of domestic and overseas,In the second part,it introduces the theory of sustainable growth of companies and analyzes the composite factors of sustainable growth of listed companies in China,In the third part,it tests whether Chinese listed companies realize the sustainable growth or not. In the fourth part,it makes an empirical analysis on the principal components of sustainable growth of listed companies in China,In the fifth part,it describes the present situation and the unsettled problems of sustainable growth of the listed companies in China and put forward some advice. This paper discover:
(1)If the growth rate in sales revenue and sustainable growth rate are inconsistent,the asset-debt ratio is out of control. That is,the sustainable growth fails to be fulfilled.
(2)The electronic industry has seen the sustainable growth,while the others haven't.
(3)Investment in light industry and agricultural listed companies is inadequate,whereas in others it is excessive.
(4)The sustainable growth rate of a listed company is in inverse proportion to asset-debt ratio,but in direct proportion to current debt ratio as well as acid test ration
(5)There is a positive correlation between the sustainable growth rate of a listed
company and its profitability. That's to say,the higher earning rate,the higher sustainable growth rate.
(6)The sustainable growth rate of all listed firms other than those of the commerce industry is positively correlated to the growth capacity.
(7)Apart from the commerce industry,there is a positive correlation between the sustainable growth and the operation capability of the listed companies,regardless of their integral sample,industries sample and scale sample.
引文
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[21] 樊丽莉．浅谈获利能力的评价．商业研究．2000(3)：25-27
[22] 黄炳艺．上市公司经营业绩的秩和比评价方法．统计与决策．2001(3)：8-9
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[28] 王冬梅．建立我国上市公司业绩综合评价指标体系．南开管理评论．2000(4)：10-14
[29] 李增泉．激励机制与企业绩效．会计研究．2000(1)：24-30
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[35] 张青庚．短期偿债能力分析的常见误区．上海会计．2000(10)：28-29
[36] 杨福隆．企业偿债能力分析．财经理论与实践．2000(9)：107-110
[38] 罗伯特·C·希金斯．财务管理分析．北京大学出版社．1998：112-135
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[2] Arie de Geus. The Living Company. Harvard Business Review. Vol.32. (March-April). 1997:3245
[3] Higgins, Robert C. How Much Growth Can a Firm Afford? Financial Management. Vol.6. (Fall). 1977: 7-16
[4] Higgins, Robert C. Sustainable Growth under Inflation. Financial Management. Vol.10. (Autumn). 1981: 36-40
[5] Van Home, James C. Sustainable Growth Modeling. Journal of Corporate Finance. Vol.1. (Winter). 1988: 19-25
[6] Dana J. Johnson. The Behavior of Financial Structure and Sustainable Growth in an Inflationary Envirment. Financial Management. Vol.10. (Autumn). 1981: 30-35
[7] 李元旭．企业家哲学理念与企业可持续发展．管理现代化．2000(3)：30-31
[8] 刘帮成，姜太平．影响企业可持续发展的因素分析．决策借鉴．2000(8)：2-4
[9] 施放，宋竹生．企业环境管理及其绿色可持续发展．华东经济管理．2000(3)：9-10
[10] 杨杜．企业成长论．中国人民大学出版社．1996：7-10
[11] 殷建平．大企业可持续发展．上海财经大学出版社．1999：53-56
[12] 芮明杰，孙继伟．企业可持续发展的理论分析．上海经济研究．1998(4)：57-59
[13] 吴先国．可持续发展与企业竞争战略．经营管理者．1997(12)：9-10
[14] 李树．企业持续发展探析．商业研究．2000(8)：10-13
[15] 孙续元．企业中长期财务管理的思路及方法研究．会计研究．2000(3)：53-55
[16] 赵德武．财务经济行为与效率．财经科学．1999(2)：95-97
[17] 陈锦帆，王静蓉．可持续增长模型介绍及其基于重置投资分析的修正．贵州财经学院学报．1999(5-6)：51-55
[18] 肖峰，李伟．论企业可持续增长的财务管理．财会研究．1999(12)：24-25
[19] 赵华，梁鑫．企业可持续增长比率的分析与评价．财会月刊．1999(7)：24-25
[20] 黄志中，陈龙．中国上市公司盈利成长规律实证分析．经济研究 2000(12)：11-19
[21] 樊丽莉．浅谈获利能力的评价．商业研究．2000(3)：25-27
[22] 黄炳艺．上市公司经营业绩的秩和比评价方法．统计与决策．2001(3)：8-9
[23] 潘琰，程小可．上市公司经营业绩主成份评价方法．会计研究．2000(1)：31-35
[24] 李斌．对白酒行业上市公司经营业绩因子分析探讨．商业研究．2000(5)：77-79
[25] 葛显光．现代财务分析评价方法及应用．数量经济技术经济研究．1997(7)：54-59
[26] 杨雄胜．企业综合评价激励作用问题探讨．经济理论与经济管理．1999(6)：60-64
[27] 梁杰，王海燕．论企业绩效评价体系理论框架的构建．商业研究．2001(1)：41-43
[28] 王冬梅．建立我国上市公司业绩综合评价指标体系．南开管理评论．2000(4)：10-14
[29] 李增泉．激励机制与企业绩效．会计研究．2000(1)：24-30
[30] 孙永祥，黄祖辉．上市公司股权结构与绩效．经济研究．1999(12)：23-30
[31] 张红军．中国上市公司股权结构与公司绩效的理论及实证分析．经济科学．2000(4)：34-44
[32] 刘国亮，王加胜．上市公司股权结构、激励机制及绩效的实证研究．经济理论与经济管理．2000(5)：40-45
[33] 姜凤玲，张广立．企业流动资金运营中的问题与对策．商业研究．2000(4)：28-29
[34] 赵凌．企业偿债能力财务分析指标的修正．上海会计．2000(8)：30-31
[35] 张青庚．短期偿债能力分析的常见误区．上海会计．2000(10)：28-29
[36] 杨福隆．企业偿债能力分析．财经理论与实践．2000(9)：107-110
[38] 罗伯特·C·希金斯．财务管理分析．北京大学出版社．1998：112-135
[39] 詹姆斯·范霍恩、约翰·瓦霍维奇．现代企业财务管理．经济科学出版社．1998：265-278
[40] 彼得·F·德鲁克．管理：任务、责任、实践．中国社会科学出版社．1984：104，106
[43] 孙铮，李增泉．中国证券市场财务与会计透视．上海财经大学出版社．2000：31
[44] 中国诚信证券评估有限公司．2000中国上市公司基本分析．中国科学技术出版社．2000：142-389
[47] 何晓群．现代统计分析方法与应用．中国人民大学出版社．1999：281-315
[48] 卢纹岱．SPSS for Windows 统计分析．电子工业出版社．2000：284-426
[37] Sekaran U. Research Methods for Business: A Skill Building Approach. John Wiley and Sons. Inc. 1992:65-66
[41] Ross, S. The Economic Theory of Agency. the Principal's Problem. American Economic Review. Vol.63. No.2. 1973:134-139.
[42] Robert Simons and Antonio Davila. How High is You Return on Management. Harvard Business Review. Vol.33. (January-Feburary). 1998:42-55
[45] Michael J. Gombola and J. Edward Ketz, A Note on Cash Flow and Classification Patterns of Financial Ratios. The Accounting Review. Vol.VIII. 1983:25-33
[46] Wald, J. Capital Structure with Dividend Restrictions. Journal of Corporate Finance. Vol.5. No.2. 1999:193-208
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