福建省中小城市道路交通安全评价研究
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摘要
随着福建省经济的快速发展,机动车保有量和道路通车里程不断增长,道路交通事故成为直接影响和制约社会和谐稳定的重要因素之一。提高道路安全性能,降低交通事故发生率,首先应对道路交通安全性能进行客观的评价。论文收集和归纳国内外道路交通安全状况和道路交通安全评价理论的基础资料,阐述交通安全规划的意义,剖析福建省的道路交通格局及其成因,针对中小城市道路交通现状,从点、线、面三个层次由微观到宏观进行研究。点层次的评价应用事故危险曲线确定道路上的事故多发段;线层次的评价比较与评判同一地区内不同道路的安全性能等级,提出评价指标体系并应用灰色关联分析法进行分析;面层次的评价则应用主成分分析法总结出沿海城市和山区城市的交通异同点,提出相应的对策。通过对上述三个层次的评价,形成道路交通安全评价体系,并通过具体的研究实例验算评价体系的可操作性。
With the rapid development of economy in Fu-jian province,the number of vehicle and mileage have been greatly increased,road traffic accidents have become an important factor which directly affected and restricted social harmony and stability. In order to improve road safety performance and reduce traffic accidents,the corresponding evaluation should be made objectively. This article has collected and concluded some basic dates such as road traffic safety situation as well as the theory on road traffic safety evaluation at home and abroad, described the significance of the planning on road traffic safety ,analyzised the traffic pattern and its causes of Fu-jian province. According to the present situation of small and medium-sized cities in Fu-jian province,this article tried to provide the systematical analysis to road traffic safety evaluation from microscopic to macroscopic by setting up the road traffic evaluation system and method based on three course:pointN line and plane. The evaluation to the points and courses referred to the safety evaluation on different spots on the same line ,applicating accident dangerous curve determinated for multi-accidents on road:the evaluation to the line referred to the safety evaluation to different road on the same zone , using grey correlation analysis method to raise the evaluation indicators system;the evaluation for sections and courses referred to the road safety evaluation to the different zones in the Fu-jian province,using principal component analysis method summarize the universality and individuality in costal cities and mountain cities and putted forward corresponding countermeasures. By evaluating the three courses'safety condition,the system for rode safety evaluation has been formed
With the rapid development of economy in Fu-jian province,the number of vehicle and mileage have been greatly increased,road traffic accidents have become an important factor which directly affected and restricted social harmony and stability. In order to improve road safety performance and reduce traffic accidents,the corresponding evaluation should be made objectively. This article has collected and concluded some basic dates such as road traffic safety situation as well as the theory on road traffic safety evaluation at home and abroad, described the significance of the planning on road traffic safety ,analyzised the traffic pattern and its causes of Fu-jian province. According to the present situation of small and medium-sized cities in Fu-jian province,this article tried to provide the systematical analysis to road traffic safety evaluation from microscopic to macroscopic by setting up the road traffic evaluation system and method based on three course:pointN line and plane. The evaluation to the points and courses referred to the safety evaluation on different spots on the same line ,applicating accident dangerous curve determinated for multi-accidents on road:the evaluation to the line referred to the safety evaluation to different road on the same zone , using grey correlation analysis method to raise the evaluation indicators system;the evaluation for sections and courses referred to the road safety evaluation to the different zones in the Fu-jian province,using principal component analysis method summarize the universality and individuality in costal cities and mountain cities and putted forward corresponding countermeasures. By evaluating the three courses'safety condition,the system for rode safety evaluation has been formed
引文
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[39]裴国军,李辉.对低等级公路交通安全管理的几点思考[J].东北汽车运输,2005,5(4):42-44.
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[41]李兰冰,我国城市交通拥挤的成因及其对策研究[J].理论学刊,2005(6):33-35.
[42]张涛.我国小城市交通问题分析[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2006,6(4):51-53.
[43]K.W.OGDEN.Safer Road:A Guide to Road Safety Engineering[M].Avebury Technical.
[44]冯桂炎编著.道路交通事故多发点的密集特性与治理问题[J].道路交通工程,1992(4):31-33.
[45]曹阳,刘小明编著.道路交通事故伤亡机警损失的计量方法[J].中国公路学报,2005(8):45-46.
[46]郭忠印,方守恩.道路安全工程[M].人民交通出版社,2002:113-114.
[47]周华文.道路交通安全评价研究[D].北京工业大学,2004:9-23.
[48]Chen J.S.and Wang S.C.Comprehensive evaluation of traditional techniques and proposal of a new method for identifying hazardous locations[J],1995:143-149.
[49]Sayed T,Abdetwahab W.Using accident correctability to identify accident-prone location[J],1997:7-35.
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[51]Special Report Transportation Research Board National Research Council Washington D.C.[J].1994:105-111.
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[53]沈裴敏.道路交通安全[D].机械工业出版社,2007(3):31.
[54]林雨.道路交通事故等级层次分析--模糊评价模型[J].安徽理工大学学报(自然科学版),2005(3):33-37.
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[57]罗江涛,刘小明,任福田.道路交通安全灰色评价方法研究[J].中国公路学报,1995,8(1):137-142.
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[61]王俊人,王凤英.城市道路交通事故安全评价研究[J].机械管理开发,2006,1(1):121-122.
[62]周虹,卜胜娟.主成分分析法在宏观经济评价中的应用[J].郑州航空工业管理学院学报,2005(1):109-111.
[63]王俊人,王凤英.城市道路交通事故安全评价研究[J].机械管理开发,2006,1(1):121-122.
[64]袁志发,周静芋.多元统计分析[M].北京:科技出版社,2002.
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[66]吴立羽.应用数理统计[D].长沙:国防科技大学出版社,1995.
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[68]秦强.主成分分析法在企业偿债能力评价中的应用[J].山东工商学院学报,2005(1):85-88.
[69]李玉民,李旭宏等.主成分聚类分析在省域物流规划中的应用[J].东南大学学报,2004(4):549-552.
[70]李硕,许萌芽.主成分聚类分析法在宁夏水文分区中的应用[J].水文,2002(2):44-50.
[2]中华人民共和国道路交通安全法[S].北京:人民交通出版社,2004.
[3]辛娟.刘艳妮,雷斌.我国城市化进程中城市交通问题的研究[J].山西建筑,2005,11(11):16-17.
[4]张涛.小城市居民出行特征分析及交通发展对策研究[J].交通科技,2005(3):89-91.
[5]王炜,杨吉谦.城市交通规划理论与方法[M].北京:人民交通出版社,1992:43-44.
[6]刘东.城市道路交通管理规划[J].公安大学学报,2001,7(5):23-24.
[7]李薛.道路交通安全评价方法及其初步应用研究[D].河海大学,2006.
[8]The Institution of Highway & Transportation[J].Guideline For The Safety Audit of Highways,Nov.1996.
[9]Public Works Department(Malaysia)(Road Branch)[J].Road Safety Audit-Guideline for The Safety Audit of Roads in Malaysia,1997.
[10]AUSTROADS.Road Safety Audit[M].Standards Australia,1994.
[11]Lene Herrstedt.Road Safety Audit[M].Road No.294,PIARC,1997.
[12]AASHTO.Highway Safety Design and Operations Guide[M].AASHTO,1997.
[13]沈裴敏.道路交通安全[M].机械工业出版社,2007:219.
[14]赵建有等.城市道路平面交叉口安全评价指标的研究[J].长安大学学报,2003(3):59-60.
[15]杨天军,张晓春等.基于BP神经网络的城市道路交通安全评价研究[J].中国矿业大学学报,2005(1):37-39.
[16]Axel Elsner,Susanne Reichwein.Road Safety in Germany[J].The International Association of Traffic and Safety Science Research,2001,25(11):112-113.
[17]姚焕新.全世界的共同问题--道路安全[J].黑龙江交通科技.2006(5):110.
[18]雍希宏编译.美国城市道路交通管理略述[J].国外公路,1998,18(2):47-49.
[19]Guohua Li,Cyrus Shahpar,Jurek George Grabpwski.Secular Trends of Motor Vehicle Mortality in the Unite State,1910-1994[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2000,8(33):123-124.
[20]Insititute for Road Safety Research.A Successful Road Safety Program in The Netherlands[J].Ministry of Transport Research Center(AVV).
[21]汤潇.中国城市交通问题三思[J].城乡建设,2004,2(7):37-38.
[22]陆建.城市交通可持续发展规划理论与方法[D].东南大学交通学院,2003.
[23]王炜,徐吉谦,杨涛,等.城市交通规划理论及应用[M].南京:东南大学出版社,1998:68-78.
[24]文良杰.浅谈小城市畅通安全工作[J].2001,5(11):35-36.
[25]李作敏,张凡安.关于道路交通安全评价研究[J].北京交通管理干部学院学报,2000(1):1-6.
[26]柴绪东,王兵,刘运通.道路交通安全宏观评价研究[J].道路交通与安全,2001(2):17-19.
[27]刘志强,葛如海,龚标遍,等.道路交通安全工程[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2005.
[28]张苏.中国交通冲突技术[M].成都:西南交通大学出版社,1998.
[29]张苏.中国交通冲突技术研究[D].西南交通大学博士学位论文,1997。
[30]刘东,路峰.道路交通综合评价研究[J].交通管理,2004(9):60-61.
[31]王俊人.道路交通安全评价方法及其对策研究[D].中北大学,2006:7.
[32]张之勇.城市道路交通安全管理研究[D].西南交通大学,2003(04):33.
[33]刘运通.道路交通安全指南[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2004,119,119-126,128-142.
[34]刘士奇,王剑平,张贤.道路交通安全评价指标体系探讨[J].北方交通大学学报,1995(4):67-69.
[35]南雄.道路交通事故综合评价与对策研究[D].西安:长安大学,2002.
[36]吴克海,丁光明,雷茂锦.基于主成分法的道路交通事故综合评价方法研究[J].交通标准化,2005(总第147期):143.
[37]徐青、郭忠印、丁艺.应用层次--主成分分析法评价高等级公路安全性[J].森林工程,2005(21):37.
[38]王炜,杨吉谦.城市交通规划理论与方法[M].北京:人民交通出版社,1992:43-44.
[39]裴国军,李辉.对低等级公路交通安全管理的几点思考[J].东北汽车运输,2005,5(4):42-44.
[40]张涛.小城市居民出行特征分析及交通发展对策研究[J].交通科技,2005,6(3):89-91.
[41]李兰冰,我国城市交通拥挤的成因及其对策研究[J].理论学刊,2005(6):33-35.
[42]张涛.我国小城市交通问题分析[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2006,6(4):51-53.
[43]K.W.OGDEN.Safer Road:A Guide to Road Safety Engineering[M].Avebury Technical.
[44]冯桂炎编著.道路交通事故多发点的密集特性与治理问题[J].道路交通工程,1992(4):31-33.
[45]曹阳,刘小明编著.道路交通事故伤亡机警损失的计量方法[J].中国公路学报,2005(8):45-46.
[46]郭忠印,方守恩.道路安全工程[M].人民交通出版社,2002:113-114.
[47]周华文.道路交通安全评价研究[D].北京工业大学,2004:9-23.
[48]Chen J.S.and Wang S.C.Comprehensive evaluation of traditional techniques and proposal of a new method for identifying hazardous locations[J],1995:143-149.
[49]Sayed T,Abdetwahab W.Using accident correctability to identify accident-prone location[J],1997:7-35.
[50]Higle J.L.and Hecht M.B.A comparesion of techniques for the identifyication of hazardous locations[J].Transportation Research Record 1238,1992:92-105.
[51]Special Report Transportation Research Board National Research Council Washington D.C.[J].1994:105-111.
[52]Navin,F.,et al.Road Safety Model:Some Fundamental Ideas[J].In Transportation Research Record 1563,TRB,National Research Council,Washington,D.C.:120-131.
[53]沈裴敏.道路交通安全[D].机械工业出版社,2007(3):31.
[54]林雨.道路交通事故等级层次分析--模糊评价模型[J].安徽理工大学学报(自然科学版),2005(3):33-37.
[55]程卫民.安全综合评价中的若干问题及其改进方法[J].中国安全科学学报,1999(4):20-23.
[56]李薛.道路交通安全评价方法及其初步应用研究[D].河海大学,2006.
[57]罗江涛,刘小明,任福田.道路交通安全灰色评价方法研究[J].中国公路学报,1995,8(1):137-142.
[58]叶义成、柯丽华、黄德育编著.系统综合评价技术及其应用[M].冶金工业出版社,2006:180-184.
[59]裴玉龙,王炜.道路交通事故成因及预防对策[M].2004,102.
[60]王炜,过秀成.交通工程学[M].南京:东南大学出版社,2000.
[61]王俊人,王凤英.城市道路交通事故安全评价研究[J].机械管理开发,2006,1(1):121-122.
[62]周虹,卜胜娟.主成分分析法在宏观经济评价中的应用[J].郑州航空工业管理学院学报,2005(1):109-111.
[63]王俊人,王凤英.城市道路交通事故安全评价研究[J].机械管理开发,2006,1(1):121-122.
[64]袁志发,周静芋.多元统计分析[M].北京:科技出版社,2002.
[65]梅长林,周家良.实用统计方法[M].北京:科技出版社,2002.
[66]吴立羽.应用数理统计[D].长沙:国防科技大学出版社,1995.
[67]袁志发,周静芋.多元统计分析[D].北京:科技出版社,2002.
[68]秦强.主成分分析法在企业偿债能力评价中的应用[J].山东工商学院学报,2005(1):85-88.
[69]李玉民,李旭宏等.主成分聚类分析在省域物流规划中的应用[J].东南大学学报,2004(4):549-552.
[70]李硕,许萌芽.主成分聚类分析法在宁夏水文分区中的应用[J].水文,2002(2):44-50.