基于灾情信息特征的应急物资分配决策模型研究
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摘要
突发事件指突然发生,造成或者可能造成重大人员伤亡、财产损失、生态环境破坏和严重社会危害,危及公共安全的事件。突发事件包括自然灾害、公共卫生事件、社会群体事件等。我国是世界上自然灾害最严重的国家之一,灾害种类多,地震、洪水、台风等灾害均有发生,灾害损失严重。突发事件发生后,众多灾民面临着衣、食、住、行、用、医等各方面困难,需要及时进行应急救济,以减少灾民财产损失,保障生命安全。鉴于此,本文研究应急管理中如何有效公平地进行应急物资分配,以更好地满足受灾人员需求,减少受灾人员损失。
本文综合运用物流系统理论、区域灾害系统论、应急管理理论及统计决策理论,分析灾害演化规律,分析应急管理中应急准备、应急响应、应急恢复等三个阶段的灾情信息特征,基于应急管理不同阶段灾情信息特征、决策问题、决策特征和决策准则,建立以受灾人员损失最小为主要目标的应急物资分配决策模型,设计模型的算法并给出算例,分析模型特征及变量之间的关系。本文的研究内容
主要包括：
(1)研究应急管理不同阶段灾情信息的特征。从灾情信息的动态性和不确定性出发,对应急管理不同阶段中孕灾环境、致灾因子、承灾体和防灾减灾等灾情信息的特性分别进行分析。
(2)分析应急管理不同阶段中应急物资分配决策框架和建模方法。提出基于应急管理不同阶段灾情信息特征进行应急物资分配决策建模的观点。基于灾情信息特征、决策问题、决策特征和决策准则,提出在各个应急管理阶段中进行应急物资分配决策的具体建模方法。
(3)在应急准备阶段,构建灾害情景,建立应急物资分配的随机规划模型。以灾情信息作为情景要素,提出灾情信息分类与组合两阶段灾害情景构建方法和相应的构建步骤。针对应急准备阶段灾情信息具有静态不确定性的特征,基于灾害情景,建立一个两阶段随机规划模型,进行应急物资的设施定位决策、应急物资库存决策和不同灾害情景下应急物资的预分配决策,设计有效的算法,并基于四川地震带的相关数据给出算例。
(4)在应急响应阶段,构建应急物资分配的贝叶斯序贯决策模型。基于应急响应阶段应急物资分配属于不可逆决策的特征以及突发事件灾情信息不断观测和更新的特征,将决策时间的确定和决策方案的制定纳入一个系统框架,建立了应急物资分配问题中多出救点选择的贝叶斯决策模型,确定灾情信息最大观测周期、各决策周期应急方案最优决策时间、总的最优物资分配量、出救点及其物资供应量,以使得各决策周期的总损失最小、应急时间最短。使用随机模拟和贝叶斯分析方法进行求解,给出算例并进行仿真。
(5)在应急恢复阶段,构建应急物资分配的效率—公平模型。在应急恢复阶段应急物资分配的公平性尤为重要和突出。首先归纳了四类资源分配效率—公平模型。其次,建立一个不包含公平目标或公平约束的单出救点、多受灾点、多种物资的应急物资分配效率模型作为基础模型。然后,依次建立具有非线性目标函数的效率模型、具有公平约束的效率模型、具有多目标的效率—公平模型等。这些模型基本使用同样的目标函数或约束条件,以便于相互比较。
通过对以上问题的研究,在理论上,有利于进一步完善应急物资分配优化模型,有利于在应急管理中探索灾害科学、管理科学、信息科学和统计决策分析等多个相关学科进行交叉和集成研究的路径,进一步加深对突发事件应急管理客观规律的科学认识；在实践中,有利于加强中央和地方抗灾救灾物资储备网络建设,提升救灾物资运输保障能力,建立科学合理的应急物资分配制度。因此本文的最终目的是帮助政府和其他应急管理组织有效地预防和减轻人类痛苦,保障人的生命、健康和尊严。
Emergency refers to such sudden incident that has caused or may cause heavy casualties, property damage, ecological destruction and serious harm to society and public safety. Emergencies include natural disasters, public health events, and the multitude events in the society and so on. As one of the most severe affected area in the world, China suffers natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, typhoons which has caused serious losses every year. After the occurrence of emergency, many victims lack clothing, food, shelter, vehicles, daily necessities and medicine. It is necessary to provide timely relief supplies to victims to reduce the loss of life and property. So this paper studies how to distribute relief supplies in effectively and fairly manner to meet the needs of disaster victims and reduce the loss of them.
This paper is based on such theories as the logistics system theory, the regional disaster system theory, emergency management theory and statistical decision theory. It analyzes laws of disaster evolution and characteristics of disaster situation information in the three phases of emergency management, which are emergency preparedness, emergency response and emergency recovery. And three models for relief supplies allocation are established based on distinct characteristics of disaster situation information, decision problems, decision features and decision criteria in the three phases of emergency management to mainly reduce the loss of victims. The algorithms for three models are designed respectively and examples are given to show their application. It also analyzes the characteristics of three models and the relationship among different variables. The main topics of this paper are as following.
(1) Characteristics of disaster situation information in the three phases of emergency management are discussed. The dynamic and uncertain properties of disaster situation information including hazard inducing environment, hazard inducing factors, hazard bearing body, disaster prevention and reduction in the three phases of emergency management are analyzed.
(2) The decision-making frame and modeling methods for relief supplies allocation problem in the three phases of emergency management are analyzed. It is proposed to establish models based on the properties of disaster situation information. And specific modeling methods for relief supplies allocation problem are proposed based on properties of disaster situation information, decision problems, decision features and decision criteria in the three phases of emergency management.
(3) In the emergency preparedness phase, a stochastic programming model for relief supplies allocation is established based on disaster scenarios. To construct proper disaster scenarios, a two-stage construction method is proposed through classification and composition of disaster situation information which is taken as scenario elements. Then a two-stage stochastic programming model is established to solve emergency facilities location problem, relief supplies inventory problem and relief supplies pre-allocation in different disaster scenarios. The model is suitable for emergency preparedness for the disaster situation information in this phase is static and uncertain. An effective algorithm is designed and a numerical example is given based on the Sichuan earthquake zone.
(4) In the emergency response phase, a Bayesian sequential decision-making model for relief supplies allocation is established. To determine the decision time and decision-making programs in a framework, a Bayesian sequential decision-making model for multiple depots selection is established. The model is suitable for emergency response because the relief supplies allocation decision in this phase is irreversible and the disaster situation information in this phase is dynamic and uncertain. Through minimizing total loss and emergency response time in each decision period, such variables as maximal observation period for disaster situation information, optimal decision time of allocation program, optimal allocation amount, the selected depots and their supply amount in each decision period are determined. The stochastic simulation and Bayesian analysis method are proposed to solve the model, and a numerical example with simulation is given.
(5) In the emergency recovery phase, a set of efficiency-equity models for relief supplies allocation are established. In this phase the fairness of relief supplies allocation is particularly important and prominent. Firstly four types of efficiency- equity models for resource allocation are summarized. Secondly, an efficiency model without any equity object or equity constraint is established to solve relief supplies allocation problem with one depot, multiple affected areas and multiple relief supplies. This efficiency model is taken as the basic model for other efficiency-equity models. Then an efficiency model with nonlinear object function, a model with equity constraints, an efficiency-equity model with multiple objects are established respectively. All these models basically use identical object functions or constraints to facilitate comparisons.
This paper may contribute to relief supplies allocation model construction in theory, explore a path for cross-over study and integration research of disaster science, management science, information science and statistical decision analysis in emergency management field, and deepen scientific understanding of laws of emergency management. In practice, this study may be conducive to strengthening the central and local relief supplies reserve network construction in China, enhancing the transport capabilities to support relief supplies, and establishing scientific and reasonable relief supplies allocation system. The ultimate goal of this paper is to help governments and other relief organizations to prevent and alleviate human suffering, protect life and health and ensure respect for the human being.
本文综合运用物流系统理论、区域灾害系统论、应急管理理论及统计决策理论,分析灾害演化规律,分析应急管理中应急准备、应急响应、应急恢复等三个阶段的灾情信息特征,基于应急管理不同阶段灾情信息特征、决策问题、决策特征和决策准则,建立以受灾人员损失最小为主要目标的应急物资分配决策模型,设计模型的算法并给出算例,分析模型特征及变量之间的关系。本文的研究内容
主要包括：
(1)研究应急管理不同阶段灾情信息的特征。从灾情信息的动态性和不确定性出发,对应急管理不同阶段中孕灾环境、致灾因子、承灾体和防灾减灾等灾情信息的特性分别进行分析。
(2)分析应急管理不同阶段中应急物资分配决策框架和建模方法。提出基于应急管理不同阶段灾情信息特征进行应急物资分配决策建模的观点。基于灾情信息特征、决策问题、决策特征和决策准则,提出在各个应急管理阶段中进行应急物资分配决策的具体建模方法。
(3)在应急准备阶段,构建灾害情景,建立应急物资分配的随机规划模型。以灾情信息作为情景要素,提出灾情信息分类与组合两阶段灾害情景构建方法和相应的构建步骤。针对应急准备阶段灾情信息具有静态不确定性的特征,基于灾害情景,建立一个两阶段随机规划模型,进行应急物资的设施定位决策、应急物资库存决策和不同灾害情景下应急物资的预分配决策,设计有效的算法,并基于四川地震带的相关数据给出算例。
(4)在应急响应阶段,构建应急物资分配的贝叶斯序贯决策模型。基于应急响应阶段应急物资分配属于不可逆决策的特征以及突发事件灾情信息不断观测和更新的特征,将决策时间的确定和决策方案的制定纳入一个系统框架,建立了应急物资分配问题中多出救点选择的贝叶斯决策模型,确定灾情信息最大观测周期、各决策周期应急方案最优决策时间、总的最优物资分配量、出救点及其物资供应量,以使得各决策周期的总损失最小、应急时间最短。使用随机模拟和贝叶斯分析方法进行求解,给出算例并进行仿真。
(5)在应急恢复阶段,构建应急物资分配的效率—公平模型。在应急恢复阶段应急物资分配的公平性尤为重要和突出。首先归纳了四类资源分配效率—公平模型。其次,建立一个不包含公平目标或公平约束的单出救点、多受灾点、多种物资的应急物资分配效率模型作为基础模型。然后,依次建立具有非线性目标函数的效率模型、具有公平约束的效率模型、具有多目标的效率—公平模型等。这些模型基本使用同样的目标函数或约束条件,以便于相互比较。
通过对以上问题的研究,在理论上,有利于进一步完善应急物资分配优化模型,有利于在应急管理中探索灾害科学、管理科学、信息科学和统计决策分析等多个相关学科进行交叉和集成研究的路径,进一步加深对突发事件应急管理客观规律的科学认识；在实践中,有利于加强中央和地方抗灾救灾物资储备网络建设,提升救灾物资运输保障能力,建立科学合理的应急物资分配制度。因此本文的最终目的是帮助政府和其他应急管理组织有效地预防和减轻人类痛苦,保障人的生命、健康和尊严。
Emergency refers to such sudden incident that has caused or may cause heavy casualties, property damage, ecological destruction and serious harm to society and public safety. Emergencies include natural disasters, public health events, and the multitude events in the society and so on. As one of the most severe affected area in the world, China suffers natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, typhoons which has caused serious losses every year. After the occurrence of emergency, many victims lack clothing, food, shelter, vehicles, daily necessities and medicine. It is necessary to provide timely relief supplies to victims to reduce the loss of life and property. So this paper studies how to distribute relief supplies in effectively and fairly manner to meet the needs of disaster victims and reduce the loss of them.
This paper is based on such theories as the logistics system theory, the regional disaster system theory, emergency management theory and statistical decision theory. It analyzes laws of disaster evolution and characteristics of disaster situation information in the three phases of emergency management, which are emergency preparedness, emergency response and emergency recovery. And three models for relief supplies allocation are established based on distinct characteristics of disaster situation information, decision problems, decision features and decision criteria in the three phases of emergency management to mainly reduce the loss of victims. The algorithms for three models are designed respectively and examples are given to show their application. It also analyzes the characteristics of three models and the relationship among different variables. The main topics of this paper are as following.
(1) Characteristics of disaster situation information in the three phases of emergency management are discussed. The dynamic and uncertain properties of disaster situation information including hazard inducing environment, hazard inducing factors, hazard bearing body, disaster prevention and reduction in the three phases of emergency management are analyzed.
(2) The decision-making frame and modeling methods for relief supplies allocation problem in the three phases of emergency management are analyzed. It is proposed to establish models based on the properties of disaster situation information. And specific modeling methods for relief supplies allocation problem are proposed based on properties of disaster situation information, decision problems, decision features and decision criteria in the three phases of emergency management.
(3) In the emergency preparedness phase, a stochastic programming model for relief supplies allocation is established based on disaster scenarios. To construct proper disaster scenarios, a two-stage construction method is proposed through classification and composition of disaster situation information which is taken as scenario elements. Then a two-stage stochastic programming model is established to solve emergency facilities location problem, relief supplies inventory problem and relief supplies pre-allocation in different disaster scenarios. The model is suitable for emergency preparedness for the disaster situation information in this phase is static and uncertain. An effective algorithm is designed and a numerical example is given based on the Sichuan earthquake zone.
(4) In the emergency response phase, a Bayesian sequential decision-making model for relief supplies allocation is established. To determine the decision time and decision-making programs in a framework, a Bayesian sequential decision-making model for multiple depots selection is established. The model is suitable for emergency response because the relief supplies allocation decision in this phase is irreversible and the disaster situation information in this phase is dynamic and uncertain. Through minimizing total loss and emergency response time in each decision period, such variables as maximal observation period for disaster situation information, optimal decision time of allocation program, optimal allocation amount, the selected depots and their supply amount in each decision period are determined. The stochastic simulation and Bayesian analysis method are proposed to solve the model, and a numerical example with simulation is given.
(5) In the emergency recovery phase, a set of efficiency-equity models for relief supplies allocation are established. In this phase the fairness of relief supplies allocation is particularly important and prominent. Firstly four types of efficiency- equity models for resource allocation are summarized. Secondly, an efficiency model without any equity object or equity constraint is established to solve relief supplies allocation problem with one depot, multiple affected areas and multiple relief supplies. This efficiency model is taken as the basic model for other efficiency-equity models. Then an efficiency model with nonlinear object function, a model with equity constraints, an efficiency-equity model with multiple objects are established respectively. All these models basically use identical object functions or constraints to facilitate comparisons.
This paper may contribute to relief supplies allocation model construction in theory, explore a path for cross-over study and integration research of disaster science, management science, information science and statistical decision analysis in emergency management field, and deepen scientific understanding of laws of emergency management. In practice, this study may be conducive to strengthening the central and local relief supplies reserve network construction in China, enhancing the transport capabilities to support relief supplies, and establishing scientific and reasonable relief supplies allocation system. The ultimate goal of this paper is to help governments and other relief organizations to prevent and alleviate human suffering, protect life and health and ensure respect for the human being.
引文
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