保障粮食安全条件下耕地资源可持续利用的时间模型及政策模拟
|
摘要
中连川乡地处黄土高原半干旱地区,地区中沟壑纵横的黄土丘陵与长年干旱、水土流失严重的自然地貌与生态环境特征相应,自然生态系统生产力低下,农业经济社会发展水平低下,是世界上罕见的、连片的最贫困地区之一。上个世纪80年代,该地区普遍推广集雨农业工程项目,使该地区于90年代末基本解决了温饱问题。2001-2005年李嘉诚基金项目实施后,人民生活水平有所改善。目前,可持续发展问题,尤其是耕地资源确保人民群众的粮食安全条件下的可持续利用问题,提到议事日程上来了。
本论文研究,以农业生态经济系统这一新概念为基础,建立了一个耕地资源在保障粮食安全条件下可持续利用的时间模型,并利用对农户家庭进行长期跟踪调查的数据和乡镇政府的统计数据,对模型进行比对和验证。
保障粮食安全条件下的耕地资源可持续利用时间模型建立的假定前提:一是农业生态经济系统是封闭的系统,二是系统中各影响因子都是不变的;三是系统中人均耕地资源面积刚好等于保障年人均最低粮食安全所需的面积,即人均剩余耕地资源面积为零。本研究将经济社会发展的经济指标:最低粮食安全保障线、人口及人口年增长率、耕地资源年均产量等,放到简单的数学生态模型中(该模型包含了Logistic年增长率不变的种群增长模型),得出耕地资源可持续利用时间的基本模型是:
模型中,A是耕地资源面积:P是起始年的人口总量;⊿P是人口年增长率;Ea是模型参数,它是保障人均年最低粮食安全所需的耕地面积,它取决于人均年最低粮食安全保障线和耕地资源年产量。
由于模型包含了Logistic年增长率不变的种群增长模型,我将t回归到Logistic模型中,得出耕地资源的最大人口承载力模型:
事实上,年人均最低粮食安全保障线随着经济社会的发展而变化,农业生态经济系统各相关因子也在不断地变化,因此,模型自身是一个动态的模型。本研究在基本模型基础上,还建立了开放农业生态经济系统耕地资源可持续利用的时间模型。
模型建立后,本研究首先将2005年中连川乡的基本数据,运用于耕地资源可持续利用的时间模型中,并运用两种不同的参数进行比对研究,得出中连川乡耕地资源可持续利用的时间模型只能是以发展中国家年人均最低粮食安全保障线决定的参数模型,这与该乡经济社会发展现实相符合。其次,本研究将中连川村1965-2005年的相关数据运用于模型中,实证检验各不同年份耕地资源利用是否具有可持续性。再次,本研究运用模型进行模拟,说明耕地资源利用政策、人口及人口管理政策和农业科技政策的变化,对耕地资源可持续利用时间的影响。最后,本研究模拟政府在管理目标条件下,为实现特定的耕地资源可持续利用时间的管理目标,要求政府分别在耕地资源利用面积、人口及人口年增长率和农业科技政策及其影响下的耕地年均产量等方面作出相应决策,以及三个方面同时决策时的模拟数据。主要结论是:
(1)耕地资源可持续利用时间随着系统相关影响因子的变化而变化,耕地资源可持续利用的时间模型是动态模型。
(2)耕地资源可持续利用时间与耕地资源面积、耕地年均产量成正比,与人口、人口年增长率成反比。
(3)评价耕地资源利用是否具有可持续性的指标有二个,一是耕地资源可持续利用时间;二是耕地资源最大的人口承载力,二者缺一不可。
总之,耕地资源可持续利用的时间模型,建立在农业生态经济系统新概念基础上,它解决了Foster提出的长期以来生态学、数学、经济学和人类社会学研究无共同理论基础的问题,填补了长期以来土地资源利用与管理研究中,只有空间模型没有时间模型的空白。模型可用作地方政府对耕地资源利用与管理、人口及人口管理和农业科技政策等方面的决策工具,它为地方政府提供了可持续发展相关决策的模型分析方法和模拟数据。
The loess plateau semi-arid area where Zhonlianchuan valley is becomes the peculiar stretch poorest area of the world. This poverty is due to a long-term drought, serious water and soil loss, natural relief, zoology circumstance character and relevant low level of natural zoology system's productivity and low level of agro-economic-social development. Since 1980's, the popularization of rainwater harvesting agro-technology constructed with rainwater harvesting project which help of people with basic living problem in 1990's. Presently, farmer's living improve after the project sported by Li Kacheng foundation 2001-2005. For now, the sustainable problem, especially the problem of arable land resource sustainable use for ensure food security should put on agenda.
This research makes a model base on a new conception—agro-ecology-economic system, for help to take decision to ensure food security during long time in this agro-ecology-economy system. To build and to test this model, I made investigations in the farms and we used the figures of the government of this country.
To build a basic temporal model of arable land resource sustainable use to ensure food security, I consider that the average surplus area is null, the average area just the area needed to ensure food security, and that each part of agro-ecology-economic system doesn't change. I put economic index which is needed by socioeconomic development: the lowest food security, population and the rate of population growth, the productivity of soil, into simple mathematics-ecology model, which includes the Logistic group growth model. This model is:
Where A is the land area, P is population at the beginning,ΔP is the rate of population growth, Ea is the parameter of the model,it is the area to ensure food security based on the lowest food security standard and the productivity of soil.
As the model includes growth rate of group's invariable population growth type, I can put t to Logistic group growth model. The system's largest population endured model is:
P_t=P (1+ΔP)~t
In fact, the lowest food security will change while system economic society develops, every part of agro-ecology-economic system is changing, it is a dynamic system. In this research, I made also the temporal model of arable land resource sustainable use in the open agro-ecology-economics system.
What this reasearch done the First, to compare with different index of Ea for ensure that the index with the lowest food security which index of developing countries can suitable for the valley. Second, to test this model I apply it on the figures since 1965 to 2005 and it shows when the arable land was sustainability used. Third, I make a simulation to provide the figures about the policies of arable land resource use, population and agro-technology. This simulation shows how the policies of arable land use, population and agro-technology are effective at the same time to change the time of use. Last, I make a simulation about how the time will be change under the government aiming to especially get the eco-sociality. This simulation gives to the government the figures of the extension of the arable land area, or of decreasing of the rate of population growth, or of increasing the productivity of soil. The fallowing are the main conclusions:
(1) The time of arable land resource sustainable use change with any factor of the agro-ecology-economic system. The temporal model of arable land resource sustainable use is dynamic model.
(2) The time of arable land resource sustainable use is positive with the arable land area, productivity of soil, while it is objective with the population, the rate of population growth.
(3) Indexes of estimate the sustainability of arable land resource use are both the time of arable land sustainable use and the largest population endured of the arable land resource.
In a word, the temporal model was build base on the noew conception agro-ecology-economic. It solve the theory problem was poited by Foster what about the ecology-economics. It is also solve the problem about that there are nou commund background for research in ecology, mathmatics, ecoeconomics and human-socialogy. It is the frist temporal model in research about soil resource used. The temporal model can be a determination's tool for local government for arable land resource sustainable use and management, population and population management decision, also the temporal model can provide the modeling analysis method and the simulate figures for the local government to make sustainability decision.
本论文研究,以农业生态经济系统这一新概念为基础,建立了一个耕地资源在保障粮食安全条件下可持续利用的时间模型,并利用对农户家庭进行长期跟踪调查的数据和乡镇政府的统计数据,对模型进行比对和验证。
保障粮食安全条件下的耕地资源可持续利用时间模型建立的假定前提:一是农业生态经济系统是封闭的系统,二是系统中各影响因子都是不变的;三是系统中人均耕地资源面积刚好等于保障年人均最低粮食安全所需的面积,即人均剩余耕地资源面积为零。本研究将经济社会发展的经济指标:最低粮食安全保障线、人口及人口年增长率、耕地资源年均产量等,放到简单的数学生态模型中(该模型包含了Logistic年增长率不变的种群增长模型),得出耕地资源可持续利用时间的基本模型是:
模型中,A是耕地资源面积:P是起始年的人口总量;⊿P是人口年增长率;Ea是模型参数,它是保障人均年最低粮食安全所需的耕地面积,它取决于人均年最低粮食安全保障线和耕地资源年产量。
由于模型包含了Logistic年增长率不变的种群增长模型,我将t回归到Logistic模型中,得出耕地资源的最大人口承载力模型:
事实上,年人均最低粮食安全保障线随着经济社会的发展而变化,农业生态经济系统各相关因子也在不断地变化,因此,模型自身是一个动态的模型。本研究在基本模型基础上,还建立了开放农业生态经济系统耕地资源可持续利用的时间模型。
模型建立后,本研究首先将2005年中连川乡的基本数据,运用于耕地资源可持续利用的时间模型中,并运用两种不同的参数进行比对研究,得出中连川乡耕地资源可持续利用的时间模型只能是以发展中国家年人均最低粮食安全保障线决定的参数模型,这与该乡经济社会发展现实相符合。其次,本研究将中连川村1965-2005年的相关数据运用于模型中,实证检验各不同年份耕地资源利用是否具有可持续性。再次,本研究运用模型进行模拟,说明耕地资源利用政策、人口及人口管理政策和农业科技政策的变化,对耕地资源可持续利用时间的影响。最后,本研究模拟政府在管理目标条件下,为实现特定的耕地资源可持续利用时间的管理目标,要求政府分别在耕地资源利用面积、人口及人口年增长率和农业科技政策及其影响下的耕地年均产量等方面作出相应决策,以及三个方面同时决策时的模拟数据。主要结论是:
(1)耕地资源可持续利用时间随着系统相关影响因子的变化而变化,耕地资源可持续利用的时间模型是动态模型。
(2)耕地资源可持续利用时间与耕地资源面积、耕地年均产量成正比,与人口、人口年增长率成反比。
(3)评价耕地资源利用是否具有可持续性的指标有二个,一是耕地资源可持续利用时间;二是耕地资源最大的人口承载力,二者缺一不可。
总之,耕地资源可持续利用的时间模型,建立在农业生态经济系统新概念基础上,它解决了Foster提出的长期以来生态学、数学、经济学和人类社会学研究无共同理论基础的问题,填补了长期以来土地资源利用与管理研究中,只有空间模型没有时间模型的空白。模型可用作地方政府对耕地资源利用与管理、人口及人口管理和农业科技政策等方面的决策工具,它为地方政府提供了可持续发展相关决策的模型分析方法和模拟数据。
The loess plateau semi-arid area where Zhonlianchuan valley is becomes the peculiar stretch poorest area of the world. This poverty is due to a long-term drought, serious water and soil loss, natural relief, zoology circumstance character and relevant low level of natural zoology system's productivity and low level of agro-economic-social development. Since 1980's, the popularization of rainwater harvesting agro-technology constructed with rainwater harvesting project which help of people with basic living problem in 1990's. Presently, farmer's living improve after the project sported by Li Kacheng foundation 2001-2005. For now, the sustainable problem, especially the problem of arable land resource sustainable use for ensure food security should put on agenda.
This research makes a model base on a new conception—agro-ecology-economic system, for help to take decision to ensure food security during long time in this agro-ecology-economy system. To build and to test this model, I made investigations in the farms and we used the figures of the government of this country.
To build a basic temporal model of arable land resource sustainable use to ensure food security, I consider that the average surplus area is null, the average area just the area needed to ensure food security, and that each part of agro-ecology-economic system doesn't change. I put economic index which is needed by socioeconomic development: the lowest food security, population and the rate of population growth, the productivity of soil, into simple mathematics-ecology model, which includes the Logistic group growth model. This model is:
Where A is the land area, P is population at the beginning,ΔP is the rate of population growth, Ea is the parameter of the model,it is the area to ensure food security based on the lowest food security standard and the productivity of soil.
As the model includes growth rate of group's invariable population growth type, I can put t to Logistic group growth model. The system's largest population endured model is:
P_t=P (1+ΔP)~t
In fact, the lowest food security will change while system economic society develops, every part of agro-ecology-economic system is changing, it is a dynamic system. In this research, I made also the temporal model of arable land resource sustainable use in the open agro-ecology-economics system.
What this reasearch done the First, to compare with different index of Ea for ensure that the index with the lowest food security which index of developing countries can suitable for the valley. Second, to test this model I apply it on the figures since 1965 to 2005 and it shows when the arable land was sustainability used. Third, I make a simulation to provide the figures about the policies of arable land resource use, population and agro-technology. This simulation shows how the policies of arable land use, population and agro-technology are effective at the same time to change the time of use. Last, I make a simulation about how the time will be change under the government aiming to especially get the eco-sociality. This simulation gives to the government the figures of the extension of the arable land area, or of decreasing of the rate of population growth, or of increasing the productivity of soil. The fallowing are the main conclusions:
(1) The time of arable land resource sustainable use change with any factor of the agro-ecology-economic system. The temporal model of arable land resource sustainable use is dynamic model.
(2) The time of arable land resource sustainable use is positive with the arable land area, productivity of soil, while it is objective with the population, the rate of population growth.
(3) Indexes of estimate the sustainability of arable land resource use are both the time of arable land sustainable use and the largest population endured of the arable land resource.
In a word, the temporal model was build base on the noew conception agro-ecology-economic. It solve the theory problem was poited by Foster what about the ecology-economics. It is also solve the problem about that there are nou commund background for research in ecology, mathmatics, ecoeconomics and human-socialogy. It is the frist temporal model in research about soil resource used. The temporal model can be a determination's tool for local government for arable land resource sustainable use and management, population and population management decision, also the temporal model can provide the modeling analysis method and the simulate figures for the local government to make sustainability decision.
引文
A.M.,Jansson,A.M.Hammer,C.Folke,R.Costanza,(Eds.),1994.Investing in Natural Capital,The Ecological Economics Approach to Sustainability.Island Press.Washington DC.
Allen.B.J,Bourk,R.M.,and Hide,R.1995.The sustain of Papua New Guinea agricultural system:The conceptual background.Global Environmental Change 5:297-312.
AmmarA.Amin.2004.The extent of desertification on Saudi Arabia.Environmental Geology.(46):22-31.
Andrew Marshall.2000.Sustaining sustainable agriculture:The rise and fall of the Fund for Rural AmericaAgriculture and Human Values.17:267-277.
Benenson,I.and Torrens,P.M.,2004.Editorial - Geosimulation:object-based modeling ofurban phenomena.Computers,Environment and Urban Systems,28,1-8.
Biam,L.and Walsh,S.J.2002.Characterizing and modeling landscape dynamics:an introduction.Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing,68 (10)999-1000.
Buttel,F.and H.Newby,(eds.) 1980.The Rurl Sociology of the Advanced Societies.Montclair:Allanheld,Osmun.
Carson.R.1963.Silent Spring.Hamilton,London.
Cecilia Collados,Timothy P.Duane,(1999),ANALYSIS Natural capital and quality of life:a model for evaluating the sustainability of alternative regional development paths.Ecological Economics 30,441-460.
Costanza,A.R.,Cumberland,J.,Daly,H.,Goodland,R.and Norgaard,R.:1997,An Introduction to Ecological Economics,St.Lucie Press,Boca Raton,Florida.
Da Erfu,Wu Zhaohong,2004.Sustainable arable land use:literature review and research progress.Progress in Geography.23 (1)79-87 (in Chinese with English title abstract).
Dawn C.Parker,Thomas Berger and Steven M.Manson.,2001.Agent-Based Models of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Report and Review of an International Workshop October 4-7,Irvine,California,USA vii.
Donald C M.The progress of Australian agriculture and the role of pasture in environmental change [J].Australian Journal of Science,1989,27:187-198.
Dregne,H.E.,1976.Soil of Arid Regions,Elsevier Scientific Pub-Lishing Company,390.
E.F.Lambin,H.J.Geist,2006.Land-Use and Land-Cover Change:Local Peocesses and Global Impacts.Springer.
FAO,1976.A framework for land evaluation.Soil Bulletin 32.FAO,Rome.
FAO,1976.A framework for land evaluation [R],FAO soil bulletin 32.
FAO,1993a.FESLM:An international framework for evaluating sustainable land management.orld Resource Report 73:Land and Water Development Division.Rome.
FAO,1993b.Guidelines for land use planning.Development series No.1.FAO,Rome.
FAO,1993.FESLM :An international framework for evaluating sustainable land management.World Resource Report 73:Land and Water Development Division.Rome.
FAO/UNEP.1996.Our Land Our FuturcA New Approach to Land Use Planning and Management.FAO/UNEP,Rome.
FAO/UNEP.1997.Negotiating a Sustainable Future for Land.Structual and Institutional Guidelines forLand Resources Management in the 21st Century.FAO/ UNEP,Rome.
FAO,1998.Temionology for Integrated Resources Planning and Management.FAO,Rome
FAO,1999.The Future of Our Land,Facing the Challenge-Guidelines for Integrates Land use Planning FAO/UNEP,Rome.
Feng Zhiming,Lui Baoqin,Yang Yanzhao,2005.Analysis in tend to of arable land resource change and its number reconstruct in china:1949 ～ 2003,Jounal of Natural Resources,20 (1) 35-43(in Chinese with English title abstract).
Fitz Simmons.M.,1990.“The social and environmental relations of U.S.agricultural regions,”in P.Lowe,T.Marsden and S.Whatmore (eds) Technological Change and the Rural Environment.London.D.Fulton.
FOX,J.,RINDFUSS,R.R.,WALSH,S.J.and MISHRA,V.,2002.People and the Environment;Approaches for Linking Household and Community Surveys to Remote Sensing and GIS.344(Boston:Kluwer Academic Publishers).
Francis Gamy,Christian Feller,Jean-Michel Harmand,2001.Herve Guibert.Management of soil organic matter in semiarid Africa for annual cropping systems.Nutrient Cycaling in Agroecosystems,.(61):105-118.
Friedland,W.,L.Busch,F.Buttel,and A.Rudy (eds.),1991.Towards a New Political Economy of Agriculture.Boulder,Colorado:Westview Press.
Friedman,H,1982.“The political economy of food:The rise and fall of the post-war international food order,”in M.Buroway and T.Skocpol (eds.),The American Journal of Sociology,88.special supplement.
FU Bojie,Chen Liding ,Ma Cheng.1997.The index system and method of land sustainable use evaluation [J].Jounal of Natural Re sources ,12 (2) 112 ～ 118.(in Chinese with English title abstract).
Goldschmidt,W.,1947.As You Sow:Three Studies in the Social Consequences of Agribusiness.Montclair:Schenkman.
Goodman,D.and M.Redclift,1991.Refashioning Nature:Food,Ecology,and Culture.London:Routledge.
Goodman.D and M.Watts,1994.“Reconfiguring the rural or fording the divide:Capitalist restructuring and the global agro-food system.”Journal of Peasant Studies 22(1):1-49.
GTZ.1995.Land use Planning.Methods,Strategies,Tools.GTZ,Eschborn.
H.J.Geist,2006.Our Earth's Changing Land:An Encyclopedia of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change,Freenwood.
H.Tiessen,E.V.S.B.Sampaio,I.H.Salcedo,2001 Organic matter turonover and management in low input agriculture of NE Brazil.Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems.(61):99-103.
Haberl.H,Batterbury.S,and Moran.E.,2001.Using and shaping the land:a long-term perspective.Land Use Policy,(18) 1-8.
He X B.Down-scale analysis for water scarcity in response to soil-water conservation on Loess Plateau of China agriculture [J].Ecosystems and Evironment,2003,94:355-361.
Henderson,E,1998.“Rebuilding local foodsystems from the grassroots up”Monthly Review 50(3):112-124.
Hua Zheng,Zhiyun Ouyang,Tonjian Zhao,Zhenxin Li,Weihua Xu,2003.the impact on the service function of ecology system by human activity.Jounal of Natural Resources,18 (1) 118-126 (in Chinese with English title abstract).
J.D.Berger,L.D.Robertson,P.S.Cocks,2002.Agricultural Potential of Mediterreanran grain legumes:Key differences between and within Vicia species in terms of phenology,yield,and agronomy give insight into plant adaptation to semiarid.Genetic Resources and Crop Evolution.49:313-325.
Jay Foster,2003.Between economics and ecology:Some historical and philosophical considerations for modelers of natural capital .Environmental Monitoring and Assessment.86:63-74.
Jennifer Sumner,2005.Value wars in the new periphery:Sustainability,rural communities and agriculture.Agriculture and Human Value.22:303-312.
Joy Ogaji,2005.Sustainable agriculture in UK,Environment,Development and Sustainability.7:253-270.
K.G.Hubbard and F.J.Flores-Mendoza,1995 .Relating United States crop land use to natural resources and climate change,Journal of climate.8:329-335.
Kim C.S.,Sandretto C,Uri N.D,1999.The impact of incorrectly estimating factor productivity in agriculture on the environment and human health [J].Environmental Geology,37(1-2):47-53
Kusum Dobriyal.Weteland News.1996.11(3).55-58.
Lambin,E.F.,Baulies,X.,Bockstael,N.,et al.,2000.Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC),Implementation Strategy.IGBP Report 48,IHDP Report 10,IGBP,IHDP,Stockholm,Bonn.
Leet,R.E.,Arthur,W.B.,Kelley,A.C,Rodgers,G,and Srinivasan T.N.(eds.),1988.Population,Food and Rural Development,Clarendon,Oxford.
Li Feng-Min,1999.On agricultural productivity and ecosystem's sustainabihty in semiarid areas of China.Resources Science 21 (5),25-30 (in Chinese with English title abstract).
Li F M,Wang T C,Cao J.1998.Effect of organic matter on total amount and availability of nitrogen and phosphorus in loess soil of Northwest China.Communications in Soil Science and Plant Analysis,29,947-953.
Li X Y,Gong J D.Effiects of different ridge:furrow ratios and supplemental irrigation on crop production in ridge and furrow rainfall harvesting systems with mulches [J].Agricultural Water Management,2002,54:243-254.
Li,Feng-Min,Xu,J.Z.,Sun G.uo-Jun,2003,Restoration of degraded ecosystems and development of water-harvesting ecological agriculture in the semi-arid Loess Plateau of China,ActaEcologica Sinica 23 (9),1901-1909 (in Chinese with English title abstract).
Manuel Ortega,Josefa Velasco,2004.Andres Millan,Cristina Guerero.An Ecological Integrity Index for Littoral Wetlands in Agricultural Catchments of Semiarid Mediterranean Regions.Evironmental Management.(3):412-430.
Masahiro Umezaki,Yukio Kuchikura,Taro Yamauchi,and Ryutaro Ohtsuka,2000.1mmpact of Population Pressure on Food Production:An Analysis of Land Use Change and SubsistencePattern in the Tari Basin in Papua New Guinea Highlands.Human Ecology,Vol.28,No.3,359-381.
Md.Zahid Hossain.2001,Farmer' s view on soil organic matter depletion and its management in Bangladesh.Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems.(61):197-204.
Meadows,D.H.,D.L.,Randers,J.and Behrens,C.W.,1972.The Limits to Growth,Universe Books,New York.
Merrigan,K.1993.“National policy options and strategies to encourage sustainable agriculture:Lessons from the 1990 farm bill.”American Journal of Alternative Agriculture 8(4):158-160.
Moran,E.(ed),1990.The Ecosystem Approach in Anthropology:From Concept to Practice,University of Michigan Press,Ann Arbor.
Munton,R.1992.“The uneven development of capitalist agriculture:The repositioning of agriculture within the foodsystem”,in K.Hoggart (ed.),Agricultural Change,Environment,and Economy:Essays in Honor of W.B.Morgan.New York:Mansell.Nagendra,H.,Munroe,D.K.and Southworth,J.,2004.From pattern to process:landscape fragmentation and the analysis of land use/land cover change.Agriculture,Ecosystems & Environment,101 (2-3) 111-115.
Ohtsuka,R.,Abe,T,and Umezaki,M.,1998.Environmentally Sound Agricultural Development in Rural Societies:A Comparative View from Papua New Guinea and South China,WorkingPaper No.27,UNESCO(South-South Co-operation Programme ),Paris.
Osman,O.,1987.ICOMD Progress Report,In:Proceedings of The Fouth International Soil Correlation Meeting (ISCOM) Characterization,classification,and Utilization of Arisisds,Texas,New Mexico,Arizona,and California.
Parker,D.C.,Manson,S.M.,Janssen,M.A.,Hoffman,M.and Deaman,P.,2003,Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-cover change:a review.Annals of the Association of American Geographers,93 (2) 314-337.
Pen Jian,Wang Yanglin,Song Zhiqing,Jing Juan,Ding Yan,2003.Reseach progress on evaluation for sustainable arable land use.Resources Science .25 (2) 85-93(in Chinese with English title abstract).
Peter H.Verburg and A.Veldkamp.,2005 .Introduction to the Special Issue on Spatial modeling to explore land use dynamics.International Journal of Geographical Information Science 19,(2) 99-102.
Robert Costanza,Ralph d' Arge,Rudolf de Groot,Stephen Farber,Monica Grasso,Bruce Hannon,Karin Limburg,Shahid Naeen,Robert V.O'Neill,Jose Paruelo,Robert G.Raskin,Baul Sutton and Marjan van den Belt.(1997):The value of the world's ecosystem services and nature capital.Nature 387,253-260.
Roger.I.C.Hansell,Timothy M.Hansell,Adam.Fenech,2003.A New Market Instrument for Sustainable Economic and Environmental Development,Environmental Monitoring andAssessment 86:203-209.
Shi,Z.Y.,Liu,W.Z.,Guo,S.L.,Li,F.M.,2003.Moilsture properties in soil profiles and their relation to landform at Zhonglianchuan small watershed,Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas 21 (4),101-104.(in Chinese with English title abstract).
Soil Survey Staff.1960.Soil Classification-A Comprehensive System-7th Approximation,Soil conservation Service,U S Department of Agriculture,Wasgington,D.C,265.
Stanhill Glrrigaton in Iseal:Past achievements,presrnt challenges and future possibilities.In Joseph Shalhevet,Liu Changming,Xu Yuexian(eds).1992.Water Use Efficiency in Agriculture.Rehovot,Isreal:Priel Publishers,63.
Stephen G.Perz,Carlos Aramburu and Jason Bremner,2005.Population,land use and deforestation in the pan Amazon basin:A comparison of brazil,Bolivia,Colombia,Ecuador,Peru,and Venezuela.Environment,Development and Sustainability,(7) 23-49.
Steward B.,1988.A.Dry-land farming:the north American experiencefA].Proceedings of International Conference on Dry-land Farming[C].Bushland,Texas,USA,(54-59).
Tarig.El.Gamri,2004.Prospects and constraints of Desert Agriculture:Lessons from West Omdurman.Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,(99) 57-73.
The Kingdom of Swaziland/FAO /UNEP.1998.Proceeding of FAOAJNEP Workshop on Integrated Planning and Mannagement of Land Resources.Malbane-Rome..
Tudor M.Botzan,Angelica I.Necula,Miguel A.,1999.Marino.Benifit-Cost Model for an Artificial Recharge Scenario in the San Joaquin Valley,California.Water Resources Management (13):189-203.
Turner,R.,Pearce,D.and Bateman,I.:1993,Environmental Economics:An Elementary Introduction,Johns Hopkins University Press,Baltimore,MD.
Turner,R.K.,Doktor,P.,Adger,N.,1994.Sea-level rise and coastal wetlands in the UK:mitigation strategies for sustainable management.In:Jansson.
Turner,Il B.L.,Skole D.,Sanderson S.,st al.,1997.Land use and land cover change.Geographical review,4(1-2) 26-33.
Turner.R.K.,Doktor,R,Adger.N.,1994.Sea-level rise and coastal wetlands in the UK:mitigation strategies for sustainable management.In:Jansson,A.M,Hammer,M.,Folke,C,Costanza,R.(Eds.),Investing in Nature Capital.The Ecological Economics Approach to Sustainability.Island Press,Washington DC.
UNCED.1993 .Agenda 21:Programme of Action for Sustainable Development.United Nations,New York.
Urban Lindgren,Heiena Elmquist,2005.Environmental and Economic Lmpacts of Decision-Making at Arable Farm:An Integrative Modeling Approach.Ambio,34,(4-5)393-401.
Veldkamp,A.and Lambin,E.F.,2001.Editorial:Predicting land-use change.Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,85,1-6.
Veldkamp,A.and Verburg,P.H.,2004.Modelling land use change and environmental impact:Introduction to the special issue.Journal of Environmental Management,inpress.
Verburg,P.H.,Schot,P.,Dijst,M.and Veldkamp,A.,2005.Land use change modelling:current practice and research priorities.Geojournal,inpress.
Wang Xiaoling,[D]2005 .Studies on alfalfa-crop rotation system in the semiarid Loess plateau region of Northwest China.Page 23(in Chinese with English title abstract).
Wang Yajun,[D]2004.Effect of rainwater harvesting technology on a semiarid agroecosystem:a case study in the Mountainous area of North Yuzhong,Gansu,China 67 (in Chinese with English title abstract).
WMO:1990.Final Report:Working Group on Monitoring Assessment and Combat of Desertification,WMO.
World Bank,The signing of the Bretton Woods Agreement on 27 July 1944.implicitly acknowledged that the Great Depression and the Second World War marked the emergence of political and economic problems that could not be effectively addressed by individual nation states and required the intervention of new international economic and political organizations.The Bretton Woods agreement led to the formation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to augment the activities of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
World Commission on Environment and Development,1987 Our Common Future.Oxford University Press,Oxford.
Young,T.A.1990.Soil changes under agroforestry-SCUFA.ICRAF.
Yuan T,Li F M,Liu P H.,2003.Economic analysis of rainwater harvesting and irrigation methods,with an example form China[J].Agriculture Water Management,60:217-226.
Zhang Y Q.,2004.Effect of soil water deficit on evapo transpiration,crop yield,and water use efficiency in the north China Plain[J].Agriculture Water Management,64:107-122.
Zhao Qiguo,2004.soil resource,the mother of soil-we must think much of the problems of protect,construct and sustainable use of the soil resource.Siols,36(4) 337-339(in Chinese with English title abstract).
Zhe Deying,2004.Food security and technology improve.Anhui technology,(6) 21-22(in Chinese with English title abstract).
山仑.1999.我国西北半干旱地区农业可持续发展技术对策--发展有限灌溉农业的必然选择,中国科学基金会.(1):13-15.
FAO.1989.粮农组织地壤公报54:水土保持耕作制[M],北京:中国农业科技出版社.(60-108).
蔡玉梅,董祚继,邓红蒂,杨枫.2005.FAO土地利用评价研究进展评述,地理科学进展.(24)70-78.
陈百明,刘新卫,杨红.2003.LUCC研究的最新进展评述,地理科学进展.(22)1:22-39.
陈百明,张凤荣.2001.中国土地可持续利用指标体系理论与方法[J],自然资源学报.16(3):197-203.
陈良.2003.土地整理与我国农业可持续发展,自然杂志.(25)5:301-304.
陈友汀.2005.科技进步对中国粮食安全的影响,中国农业科技进展.(6)64-66.
陈志刚,黄贤金.2001.经济发达地区土地资源可持续利用评价研究-以江苏省江阴市为例[J],资源科学.23(3):33-38.
成广仁.1984.国外某些干旱半干旱地区发展农业的道路[J],世界农业.(2)29-30.
程久苗.2001.试论土地持续利用与土地利用总体规划[J],安徽师范大学学报(自然科学版).24(2)144-147.
程序.1999.农牧交错带研究中的现代生态学前沿问题,资源科学.21(5):1-8.
戴尔阜,吴绍洪.2004.土地持续利用研究进展,地理科学进展.23(1)79-88.
冯广京.1997.我国农地整理模式初步研究,中国土地.(6)14-20.
阜尔戴,吴绍洪.2004.土地持续利用研究进展,地理科学进展.23(1):79-88.
傅伯杰,陈利顶,马诚.1997.土地可持续利用评价的指标体系与方法[J],自然资源学报.12(2)112-118.
高群.国外生态-经济系统整合模型研究进展.自然资源学报.18(3)375-384.
郭承录.2000.早地农业发展的经济学思考,发展,(9)18-20.
郝明德,党廷辉,刘冬梅.2003.黄土高原沟壑区生态系统适度生产力与生态环境协调发展研究,干旱地区农业研究.21(1)94-97.
黄凤兰,李凤民.2005《西方经济科学简史-从产品经济学到生态经济学》,南宁:广西教育出版社.
黄凤兰,李凤民,刘慧明.2008.《保障粮食安全条件下耕地资源可持续利用的时间模型》,学术论坛.(1)69-72.
黄亚玲.2006关于生产力研究的几个基本问题,求是.(8)43-46.
冷疏影,李秀杉.1999.土地质量指标体系国际研究的新进展[J],地理学报.54(2):177-185.
李博.1999.中国草原植被的一般特征[A],李博文集编辑委员会,李博文集[C]北京:科学出版社.149-158.
李昌华.1989.黄土高原自然资源和生态环境的人口压力及其缓解途径的探讨,自然资源学报.4(2)177-191.
李锋瑞.1997.半干旱地区旱地农业问题与发展思路分析,开发研究.(5)36-38.
李凤民.1999.论我国半干旱地区农业生产力与生态系统可持续发展,资源科学.21(5)25-30.
李凤民,赵松龄,段舜山,高世铭,冯波.1995.黄土高原半干旱区春小麦农田有限灌溉对策初探,应用生态学报.6(3):259-264.
李小雁,龚家栋.2002.半干旱区雨水集流研究进展及其现状[J].中国沙漠.22(1)88-93.
李晓娟,倪晋仁,李振山,韩鹏,李天宏.2005.土地利用结构与土地街道办事处的关系研究,自然资源学报.20(3)340-346.
李展,彭补拙.2000.江苏省吴江市土地整理理论与实践研究.资源科学.22(3).70-74.
莲池.2005.千古之迹--中国农业的起源,农村、农业、农民(A版).(2)24-25.
梁长青,周寓康,彭补拙.1998.全球环境变化与中国土地可持续利用[J],中国人口·资源与环境.8(3)68-71.
林伟勇.2006.宁德市耕地资源变化分析与耕地可持续利用途径,《福建稻麦科技》.(1)43-45.
刘文甲.1997.积极推进土地整理实现耕地总量动态平衡,中国土地.(7)17-19.
刘小兰,李世清,李凤民.2000.论旱地农业中有机肥和豆科作物的农学意义,水土保持学报.14(6)161-165.
刘彦随.区域土地利用优化配置[M],北京:学苑出版社.1999.
骆志明a.农业生态学[M],北京:中国农业出版社.2001,9.
骆世明b.农业生态学,北京:中国农业出版社.2003.
马世均主编.旱农学.农业出版社.1991.
聂华林,路万青.农业生态经济协同论.兰州:兰州大学出版社.2005.
潘明才.1996.保护耕地是纲,纲起才能目张,中国土地.(9)13-15.
潘效仁.1999.中国关干旱地区农业可持续发慌模式探讨,甘肃农业.(9)6-8.
彭建,王仰麟,吴健生,李卫锋.2002.我国土地持续利用研究进展,中国土地科学.16(5)37-45.
曲福田.可持续发展的理论与政策选择[M].北京:中国经济出版社.2000.
让·萨伊,政治经济学概论[M].北京:商务印书馆.1963.
山仑,李玉山,许辛.1984.澳大利亚旱地农业考察情况和几点建议[J],水地保持通报.(3): 53-56.
山仑.1994.植物水分利用效率和半干旱地区农业用水,植物生理学通讯.(3)61-66.
邵晓梅,张洪业.2004.山东西北部地区劳动力承载量评估,自然资源学报.(19)324-330.
唐克丽.2000.开发西部切入点的研究--以黄土高原生态建设切入点为例,第四纪研究.20(6)504-513.
王龙昌,马林,赵惠青,万素梅.2004.国内外旱区农作制度研究进展与趋势,干旱地区农业研究.22(2)188-193
王铁成.1995.干旱区土壤资源研究综述,干旱区地理.(18)79-86.
王万茂.1997.土地整理产生、内容和效益.中国土地.(9)20-22.
王炜,刘仲龄,郝敦元.1996.内蒙古草原退化群落恢复演替的研究Ⅰ.退化草原的基本特征与恢复演替动力,植物生态学报.20(5)449-459.
王晓凌,半干旱黄土高原地区苜蓿-作物轮作系统研究,[D].2005
王亚军.2004.黄土高原半干旱区农业生态系统集雨干预的安全分析及模式研究,[D].63.
文振旺,石玉林,黄荣金等,新疆土壤地理,北京:科学出版社.1965.
吴次芳,陈美球.1997.乡村土地整理的若干技术问题探讨,中国土地科学.11(4):41-45.
吴冬秀,王根轩,赵松龄.1998.黄土高原半干旱地区水土保持植被类型选择的生态经济学思考,科技导报.10(10)54-56.
肖国举,王静.2003.黄土高原集水农业研究进展,生态学报.23(5)1004-1011.
谢经荣,林培.1996.论土地持续利用[J],中国人口·资源与环境.6(4)13-17.
谢俊奇.1998.可持续土地利用的社会、资源环境和经济影响评价的初步研究[J],中国土地科学.12(3)1-5.
徐辉,张捷,沙庆益,王久伟.2001.生态经济学的研究内容和方法,林业勘察设计.(2)28.
许宝泉.2006.基于3S技术的祖历河流域集水农业潜力研究,[D].113.
许炯心.2000.黄土高原生态环境建设的若干问题与研究需求,水土保持研究.7(2)10-13.
许彦曦,彭补拙,李春华.1998.土地用途管制与区域土地资源可持续利用研究[J],土壤.(3)137-142.
严金明,钟金发,池国仁.土地整理,北京:经济管理出版社.1998.
杨勤业,景可,申元村.2001.黄土高原生态建设与减灾,中国减灾.11(1)19-22.
杨蕴玉.2005.澳大利亚的节水措施及其启示,干旱地区农业研究.23(4)234-236.
杨志清.2005.农业节水与技术创新,干旱地区农业研究.23(6)184-186.
尹君.2001.可持续土地利用内涵及其评价指标体系研究[J],河北农业大学学报.24(1)78-81.
余海鹏,孙亚范,黄适富.1998.重庆市农业土地资源开发利用的可持续性评价[J],数量经济技术经济研究.(2)27-30.
宇振荣,邱建军,王建武艺.土地利用系统分析方法与实践,北京:中国农业科技出版社.1998.
岳天祥.2001.生物多样性研究及其问题,生态学报.21(3)462-467.
张建新,郑大玮.2005.国内外集雨农业研究进展与展望,干旱地区农业研究.23:223-229.
张明.2001.以土地利用/土地覆被变化为中心的土地科学研究进展,地理科学进展.20(4)297-304.
张维邦.1989.论黄土高原生态环境遭到彻底破坏的祸根,水土保持通报.9(1)21-27.
赵聚宝,李克煌.干旱与农业[M]北京:中国农业出版社.1995
赵其国.2004.土地资源,大地母亲--必须高度重视我国土地资源的保护、建设与可持续利用问题,土地科学.36(4)337-339.
赵松岭,集水农业引论[M].西安:陕西科学技术出版社,1996
赵松岭,李凤民,王静.1995.半干旱地区集水农业的可行性[J],西北植物学报.15(8)9-12.
郑华,欧阳志云,赵同谦等.2003.人类行为对生态系统服务结构的影响,自然资源学报.18(1)118-126.
中国科学院中国植被图编委会.中国植被图集,北京:科学出版社.2001.
中国农业科学院.当代世界农业[M].成都:四川科学技术出版社.1991.
朱绍文.《经典经济学与现代经济学》,北京:北京大学出版社.2000.
朱万斌,邱化蛟,常欣,程序.2005.农业生态系统生产力的概念及其度量方法,中国农业科学.38(5)983-989.
Allen.B.J,Bourk,R.M.,and Hide,R.1995.The sustain of Papua New Guinea agricultural system:The conceptual background.Global Environmental Change 5:297-312.
AmmarA.Amin.2004.The extent of desertification on Saudi Arabia.Environmental Geology.(46):22-31.
Andrew Marshall.2000.Sustaining sustainable agriculture:The rise and fall of the Fund for Rural AmericaAgriculture and Human Values.17:267-277.
Benenson,I.and Torrens,P.M.,2004.Editorial - Geosimulation:object-based modeling ofurban phenomena.Computers,Environment and Urban Systems,28,1-8.
Biam,L.and Walsh,S.J.2002.Characterizing and modeling landscape dynamics:an introduction.Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing,68 (10)999-1000.
Buttel,F.and H.Newby,(eds.) 1980.The Rurl Sociology of the Advanced Societies.Montclair:Allanheld,Osmun.
Carson.R.1963.Silent Spring.Hamilton,London.
Cecilia Collados,Timothy P.Duane,(1999),ANALYSIS Natural capital and quality of life:a model for evaluating the sustainability of alternative regional development paths.Ecological Economics 30,441-460.
Costanza,A.R.,Cumberland,J.,Daly,H.,Goodland,R.and Norgaard,R.:1997,An Introduction to Ecological Economics,St.Lucie Press,Boca Raton,Florida.
Da Erfu,Wu Zhaohong,2004.Sustainable arable land use:literature review and research progress.Progress in Geography.23 (1)79-87 (in Chinese with English title abstract).
Dawn C.Parker,Thomas Berger and Steven M.Manson.,2001.Agent-Based Models of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Report and Review of an International Workshop October 4-7,Irvine,California,USA vii.
Donald C M.The progress of Australian agriculture and the role of pasture in environmental change [J].Australian Journal of Science,1989,27:187-198.
Dregne,H.E.,1976.Soil of Arid Regions,Elsevier Scientific Pub-Lishing Company,390.
E.F.Lambin,H.J.Geist,2006.Land-Use and Land-Cover Change:Local Peocesses and Global Impacts.Springer.
FAO,1976.A framework for land evaluation.Soil Bulletin 32.FAO,Rome.
FAO,1976.A framework for land evaluation [R],FAO soil bulletin 32.
FAO,1993a.FESLM:An international framework for evaluating sustainable land management.orld Resource Report 73:Land and Water Development Division.Rome.
FAO,1993b.Guidelines for land use planning.Development series No.1.FAO,Rome.
FAO,1993.FESLM :An international framework for evaluating sustainable land management.World Resource Report 73:Land and Water Development Division.Rome.
FAO/UNEP.1996.Our Land Our FuturcA New Approach to Land Use Planning and Management.FAO/UNEP,Rome.
FAO/UNEP.1997.Negotiating a Sustainable Future for Land.Structual and Institutional Guidelines forLand Resources Management in the 21st Century.FAO/ UNEP,Rome.
FAO,1998.Temionology for Integrated Resources Planning and Management.FAO,Rome
FAO,1999.The Future of Our Land,Facing the Challenge-Guidelines for Integrates Land use Planning FAO/UNEP,Rome.
Feng Zhiming,Lui Baoqin,Yang Yanzhao,2005.Analysis in tend to of arable land resource change and its number reconstruct in china:1949 ～ 2003,Jounal of Natural Resources,20 (1) 35-43(in Chinese with English title abstract).
Fitz Simmons.M.,1990.“The social and environmental relations of U.S.agricultural regions,”in P.Lowe,T.Marsden and S.Whatmore (eds) Technological Change and the Rural Environment.London.D.Fulton.
FOX,J.,RINDFUSS,R.R.,WALSH,S.J.and MISHRA,V.,2002.People and the Environment;Approaches for Linking Household and Community Surveys to Remote Sensing and GIS.344(Boston:Kluwer Academic Publishers).
Francis Gamy,Christian Feller,Jean-Michel Harmand,2001.Herve Guibert.Management of soil organic matter in semiarid Africa for annual cropping systems.Nutrient Cycaling in Agroecosystems,.(61):105-118.
Friedland,W.,L.Busch,F.Buttel,and A.Rudy (eds.),1991.Towards a New Political Economy of Agriculture.Boulder,Colorado:Westview Press.
Friedman,H,1982.“The political economy of food:The rise and fall of the post-war international food order,”in M.Buroway and T.Skocpol (eds.),The American Journal of Sociology,88.special supplement.
FU Bojie,Chen Liding ,Ma Cheng.1997.The index system and method of land sustainable use evaluation [J].Jounal of Natural Re sources ,12 (2) 112 ～ 118.(in Chinese with English title abstract).
Goldschmidt,W.,1947.As You Sow:Three Studies in the Social Consequences of Agribusiness.Montclair:Schenkman.
Goodman,D.and M.Redclift,1991.Refashioning Nature:Food,Ecology,and Culture.London:Routledge.
Goodman.D and M.Watts,1994.“Reconfiguring the rural or fording the divide:Capitalist restructuring and the global agro-food system.”Journal of Peasant Studies 22(1):1-49.
GTZ.1995.Land use Planning.Methods,Strategies,Tools.GTZ,Eschborn.
H.J.Geist,2006.Our Earth's Changing Land:An Encyclopedia of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change,Freenwood.
H.Tiessen,E.V.S.B.Sampaio,I.H.Salcedo,2001 Organic matter turonover and management in low input agriculture of NE Brazil.Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems.(61):99-103.
Haberl.H,Batterbury.S,and Moran.E.,2001.Using and shaping the land:a long-term perspective.Land Use Policy,(18) 1-8.
He X B.Down-scale analysis for water scarcity in response to soil-water conservation on Loess Plateau of China agriculture [J].Ecosystems and Evironment,2003,94:355-361.
Henderson,E,1998.“Rebuilding local foodsystems from the grassroots up”Monthly Review 50(3):112-124.
Hua Zheng,Zhiyun Ouyang,Tonjian Zhao,Zhenxin Li,Weihua Xu,2003.the impact on the service function of ecology system by human activity.Jounal of Natural Resources,18 (1) 118-126 (in Chinese with English title abstract).
J.D.Berger,L.D.Robertson,P.S.Cocks,2002.Agricultural Potential of Mediterreanran grain legumes:Key differences between and within Vicia species in terms of phenology,yield,and agronomy give insight into plant adaptation to semiarid.Genetic Resources and Crop Evolution.49:313-325.
Jay Foster,2003.Between economics and ecology:Some historical and philosophical considerations for modelers of natural capital .Environmental Monitoring and Assessment.86:63-74.
Jennifer Sumner,2005.Value wars in the new periphery:Sustainability,rural communities and agriculture.Agriculture and Human Value.22:303-312.
Joy Ogaji,2005.Sustainable agriculture in UK,Environment,Development and Sustainability.7:253-270.
K.G.Hubbard and F.J.Flores-Mendoza,1995 .Relating United States crop land use to natural resources and climate change,Journal of climate.8:329-335.
Kim C.S.,Sandretto C,Uri N.D,1999.The impact of incorrectly estimating factor productivity in agriculture on the environment and human health [J].Environmental Geology,37(1-2):47-53
Kusum Dobriyal.Weteland News.1996.11(3).55-58.
Lambin,E.F.,Baulies,X.,Bockstael,N.,et al.,2000.Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC),Implementation Strategy.IGBP Report 48,IHDP Report 10,IGBP,IHDP,Stockholm,Bonn.
Leet,R.E.,Arthur,W.B.,Kelley,A.C,Rodgers,G,and Srinivasan T.N.(eds.),1988.Population,Food and Rural Development,Clarendon,Oxford.
Li Feng-Min,1999.On agricultural productivity and ecosystem's sustainabihty in semiarid areas of China.Resources Science 21 (5),25-30 (in Chinese with English title abstract).
Li F M,Wang T C,Cao J.1998.Effect of organic matter on total amount and availability of nitrogen and phosphorus in loess soil of Northwest China.Communications in Soil Science and Plant Analysis,29,947-953.
Li X Y,Gong J D.Effiects of different ridge:furrow ratios and supplemental irrigation on crop production in ridge and furrow rainfall harvesting systems with mulches [J].Agricultural Water Management,2002,54:243-254.
Li,Feng-Min,Xu,J.Z.,Sun G.uo-Jun,2003,Restoration of degraded ecosystems and development of water-harvesting ecological agriculture in the semi-arid Loess Plateau of China,ActaEcologica Sinica 23 (9),1901-1909 (in Chinese with English title abstract).
Manuel Ortega,Josefa Velasco,2004.Andres Millan,Cristina Guerero.An Ecological Integrity Index for Littoral Wetlands in Agricultural Catchments of Semiarid Mediterranean Regions.Evironmental Management.(3):412-430.
Masahiro Umezaki,Yukio Kuchikura,Taro Yamauchi,and Ryutaro Ohtsuka,2000.1mmpact of Population Pressure on Food Production:An Analysis of Land Use Change and SubsistencePattern in the Tari Basin in Papua New Guinea Highlands.Human Ecology,Vol.28,No.3,359-381.
Md.Zahid Hossain.2001,Farmer' s view on soil organic matter depletion and its management in Bangladesh.Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems.(61):197-204.
Meadows,D.H.,D.L.,Randers,J.and Behrens,C.W.,1972.The Limits to Growth,Universe Books,New York.
Merrigan,K.1993.“National policy options and strategies to encourage sustainable agriculture:Lessons from the 1990 farm bill.”American Journal of Alternative Agriculture 8(4):158-160.
Moran,E.(ed),1990.The Ecosystem Approach in Anthropology:From Concept to Practice,University of Michigan Press,Ann Arbor.
Munton,R.1992.“The uneven development of capitalist agriculture:The repositioning of agriculture within the foodsystem”,in K.Hoggart (ed.),Agricultural Change,Environment,and Economy:Essays in Honor of W.B.Morgan.New York:Mansell.Nagendra,H.,Munroe,D.K.and Southworth,J.,2004.From pattern to process:landscape fragmentation and the analysis of land use/land cover change.Agriculture,Ecosystems & Environment,101 (2-3) 111-115.
Ohtsuka,R.,Abe,T,and Umezaki,M.,1998.Environmentally Sound Agricultural Development in Rural Societies:A Comparative View from Papua New Guinea and South China,WorkingPaper No.27,UNESCO(South-South Co-operation Programme ),Paris.
Osman,O.,1987.ICOMD Progress Report,In:Proceedings of The Fouth International Soil Correlation Meeting (ISCOM) Characterization,classification,and Utilization of Arisisds,Texas,New Mexico,Arizona,and California.
Parker,D.C.,Manson,S.M.,Janssen,M.A.,Hoffman,M.and Deaman,P.,2003,Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-cover change:a review.Annals of the Association of American Geographers,93 (2) 314-337.
Pen Jian,Wang Yanglin,Song Zhiqing,Jing Juan,Ding Yan,2003.Reseach progress on evaluation for sustainable arable land use.Resources Science .25 (2) 85-93(in Chinese with English title abstract).
Peter H.Verburg and A.Veldkamp.,2005 .Introduction to the Special Issue on Spatial modeling to explore land use dynamics.International Journal of Geographical Information Science 19,(2) 99-102.
Robert Costanza,Ralph d' Arge,Rudolf de Groot,Stephen Farber,Monica Grasso,Bruce Hannon,Karin Limburg,Shahid Naeen,Robert V.O'Neill,Jose Paruelo,Robert G.Raskin,Baul Sutton and Marjan van den Belt.(1997):The value of the world's ecosystem services and nature capital.Nature 387,253-260.
Roger.I.C.Hansell,Timothy M.Hansell,Adam.Fenech,2003.A New Market Instrument for Sustainable Economic and Environmental Development,Environmental Monitoring andAssessment 86:203-209.
Shi,Z.Y.,Liu,W.Z.,Guo,S.L.,Li,F.M.,2003.Moilsture properties in soil profiles and their relation to landform at Zhonglianchuan small watershed,Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas 21 (4),101-104.(in Chinese with English title abstract).
Soil Survey Staff.1960.Soil Classification-A Comprehensive System-7th Approximation,Soil conservation Service,U S Department of Agriculture,Wasgington,D.C,265.
Stanhill Glrrigaton in Iseal:Past achievements,presrnt challenges and future possibilities.In Joseph Shalhevet,Liu Changming,Xu Yuexian(eds).1992.Water Use Efficiency in Agriculture.Rehovot,Isreal:Priel Publishers,63.
Stephen G.Perz,Carlos Aramburu and Jason Bremner,2005.Population,land use and deforestation in the pan Amazon basin:A comparison of brazil,Bolivia,Colombia,Ecuador,Peru,and Venezuela.Environment,Development and Sustainability,(7) 23-49.
Steward B.,1988.A.Dry-land farming:the north American experiencefA].Proceedings of International Conference on Dry-land Farming[C].Bushland,Texas,USA,(54-59).
Tarig.El.Gamri,2004.Prospects and constraints of Desert Agriculture:Lessons from West Omdurman.Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,(99) 57-73.
The Kingdom of Swaziland/FAO /UNEP.1998.Proceeding of FAOAJNEP Workshop on Integrated Planning and Mannagement of Land Resources.Malbane-Rome..
Tudor M.Botzan,Angelica I.Necula,Miguel A.,1999.Marino.Benifit-Cost Model for an Artificial Recharge Scenario in the San Joaquin Valley,California.Water Resources Management (13):189-203.
Turner,R.,Pearce,D.and Bateman,I.:1993,Environmental Economics:An Elementary Introduction,Johns Hopkins University Press,Baltimore,MD.
Turner,R.K.,Doktor,P.,Adger,N.,1994.Sea-level rise and coastal wetlands in the UK:mitigation strategies for sustainable management.In:Jansson.
Turner,Il B.L.,Skole D.,Sanderson S.,st al.,1997.Land use and land cover change.Geographical review,4(1-2) 26-33.
Turner.R.K.,Doktor,R,Adger.N.,1994.Sea-level rise and coastal wetlands in the UK:mitigation strategies for sustainable management.In:Jansson,A.M,Hammer,M.,Folke,C,Costanza,R.(Eds.),Investing in Nature Capital.The Ecological Economics Approach to Sustainability.Island Press,Washington DC.
UNCED.1993 .Agenda 21:Programme of Action for Sustainable Development.United Nations,New York.
Urban Lindgren,Heiena Elmquist,2005.Environmental and Economic Lmpacts of Decision-Making at Arable Farm:An Integrative Modeling Approach.Ambio,34,(4-5)393-401.
Veldkamp,A.and Lambin,E.F.,2001.Editorial:Predicting land-use change.Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,85,1-6.
Veldkamp,A.and Verburg,P.H.,2004.Modelling land use change and environmental impact:Introduction to the special issue.Journal of Environmental Management,inpress.
Verburg,P.H.,Schot,P.,Dijst,M.and Veldkamp,A.,2005.Land use change modelling:current practice and research priorities.Geojournal,inpress.
Wang Xiaoling,[D]2005 .Studies on alfalfa-crop rotation system in the semiarid Loess plateau region of Northwest China.Page 23(in Chinese with English title abstract).
Wang Yajun,[D]2004.Effect of rainwater harvesting technology on a semiarid agroecosystem:a case study in the Mountainous area of North Yuzhong,Gansu,China 67 (in Chinese with English title abstract).
WMO:1990.Final Report:Working Group on Monitoring Assessment and Combat of Desertification,WMO.
World Bank,The signing of the Bretton Woods Agreement on 27 July 1944.implicitly acknowledged that the Great Depression and the Second World War marked the emergence of political and economic problems that could not be effectively addressed by individual nation states and required the intervention of new international economic and political organizations.The Bretton Woods agreement led to the formation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to augment the activities of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
World Commission on Environment and Development,1987 Our Common Future.Oxford University Press,Oxford.
Young,T.A.1990.Soil changes under agroforestry-SCUFA.ICRAF.
Yuan T,Li F M,Liu P H.,2003.Economic analysis of rainwater harvesting and irrigation methods,with an example form China[J].Agriculture Water Management,60:217-226.
Zhang Y Q.,2004.Effect of soil water deficit on evapo transpiration,crop yield,and water use efficiency in the north China Plain[J].Agriculture Water Management,64:107-122.
Zhao Qiguo,2004.soil resource,the mother of soil-we must think much of the problems of protect,construct and sustainable use of the soil resource.Siols,36(4) 337-339(in Chinese with English title abstract).
Zhe Deying,2004.Food security and technology improve.Anhui technology,(6) 21-22(in Chinese with English title abstract).
山仑.1999.我国西北半干旱地区农业可持续发展技术对策--发展有限灌溉农业的必然选择,中国科学基金会.(1):13-15.
FAO.1989.粮农组织地壤公报54:水土保持耕作制[M],北京:中国农业科技出版社.(60-108).
蔡玉梅,董祚继,邓红蒂,杨枫.2005.FAO土地利用评价研究进展评述,地理科学进展.(24)70-78.
陈百明,刘新卫,杨红.2003.LUCC研究的最新进展评述,地理科学进展.(22)1:22-39.
陈百明,张凤荣.2001.中国土地可持续利用指标体系理论与方法[J],自然资源学报.16(3):197-203.
陈良.2003.土地整理与我国农业可持续发展,自然杂志.(25)5:301-304.
陈友汀.2005.科技进步对中国粮食安全的影响,中国农业科技进展.(6)64-66.
陈志刚,黄贤金.2001.经济发达地区土地资源可持续利用评价研究-以江苏省江阴市为例[J],资源科学.23(3):33-38.
成广仁.1984.国外某些干旱半干旱地区发展农业的道路[J],世界农业.(2)29-30.
程久苗.2001.试论土地持续利用与土地利用总体规划[J],安徽师范大学学报(自然科学版).24(2)144-147.
程序.1999.农牧交错带研究中的现代生态学前沿问题,资源科学.21(5):1-8.
戴尔阜,吴绍洪.2004.土地持续利用研究进展,地理科学进展.23(1)79-88.
冯广京.1997.我国农地整理模式初步研究,中国土地.(6)14-20.
阜尔戴,吴绍洪.2004.土地持续利用研究进展,地理科学进展.23(1):79-88.
傅伯杰,陈利顶,马诚.1997.土地可持续利用评价的指标体系与方法[J],自然资源学报.12(2)112-118.
高群.国外生态-经济系统整合模型研究进展.自然资源学报.18(3)375-384.
郭承录.2000.早地农业发展的经济学思考,发展,(9)18-20.
郝明德,党廷辉,刘冬梅.2003.黄土高原沟壑区生态系统适度生产力与生态环境协调发展研究,干旱地区农业研究.21(1)94-97.
黄凤兰,李凤民.2005《西方经济科学简史-从产品经济学到生态经济学》,南宁:广西教育出版社.
黄凤兰,李凤民,刘慧明.2008.《保障粮食安全条件下耕地资源可持续利用的时间模型》,学术论坛.(1)69-72.
黄亚玲.2006关于生产力研究的几个基本问题,求是.(8)43-46.
冷疏影,李秀杉.1999.土地质量指标体系国际研究的新进展[J],地理学报.54(2):177-185.
李博.1999.中国草原植被的一般特征[A],李博文集编辑委员会,李博文集[C]北京:科学出版社.149-158.
李昌华.1989.黄土高原自然资源和生态环境的人口压力及其缓解途径的探讨,自然资源学报.4(2)177-191.
李锋瑞.1997.半干旱地区旱地农业问题与发展思路分析,开发研究.(5)36-38.
李凤民.1999.论我国半干旱地区农业生产力与生态系统可持续发展,资源科学.21(5)25-30.
李凤民,赵松龄,段舜山,高世铭,冯波.1995.黄土高原半干旱区春小麦农田有限灌溉对策初探,应用生态学报.6(3):259-264.
李小雁,龚家栋.2002.半干旱区雨水集流研究进展及其现状[J].中国沙漠.22(1)88-93.
李晓娟,倪晋仁,李振山,韩鹏,李天宏.2005.土地利用结构与土地街道办事处的关系研究,自然资源学报.20(3)340-346.
李展,彭补拙.2000.江苏省吴江市土地整理理论与实践研究.资源科学.22(3).70-74.
莲池.2005.千古之迹--中国农业的起源,农村、农业、农民(A版).(2)24-25.
梁长青,周寓康,彭补拙.1998.全球环境变化与中国土地可持续利用[J],中国人口·资源与环境.8(3)68-71.
林伟勇.2006.宁德市耕地资源变化分析与耕地可持续利用途径,《福建稻麦科技》.(1)43-45.
刘文甲.1997.积极推进土地整理实现耕地总量动态平衡,中国土地.(7)17-19.
刘小兰,李世清,李凤民.2000.论旱地农业中有机肥和豆科作物的农学意义,水土保持学报.14(6)161-165.
刘彦随.区域土地利用优化配置[M],北京:学苑出版社.1999.
骆志明a.农业生态学[M],北京:中国农业出版社.2001,9.
骆世明b.农业生态学,北京:中国农业出版社.2003.
马世均主编.旱农学.农业出版社.1991.
聂华林,路万青.农业生态经济协同论.兰州:兰州大学出版社.2005.
潘明才.1996.保护耕地是纲,纲起才能目张,中国土地.(9)13-15.
潘效仁.1999.中国关干旱地区农业可持续发慌模式探讨,甘肃农业.(9)6-8.
彭建,王仰麟,吴健生,李卫锋.2002.我国土地持续利用研究进展,中国土地科学.16(5)37-45.
曲福田.可持续发展的理论与政策选择[M].北京:中国经济出版社.2000.
让·萨伊,政治经济学概论[M].北京:商务印书馆.1963.
山仑,李玉山,许辛.1984.澳大利亚旱地农业考察情况和几点建议[J],水地保持通报.(3): 53-56.
山仑.1994.植物水分利用效率和半干旱地区农业用水,植物生理学通讯.(3)61-66.
邵晓梅,张洪业.2004.山东西北部地区劳动力承载量评估,自然资源学报.(19)324-330.
唐克丽.2000.开发西部切入点的研究--以黄土高原生态建设切入点为例,第四纪研究.20(6)504-513.
王龙昌,马林,赵惠青,万素梅.2004.国内外旱区农作制度研究进展与趋势,干旱地区农业研究.22(2)188-193
王铁成.1995.干旱区土壤资源研究综述,干旱区地理.(18)79-86.
王万茂.1997.土地整理产生、内容和效益.中国土地.(9)20-22.
王炜,刘仲龄,郝敦元.1996.内蒙古草原退化群落恢复演替的研究Ⅰ.退化草原的基本特征与恢复演替动力,植物生态学报.20(5)449-459.
王晓凌,半干旱黄土高原地区苜蓿-作物轮作系统研究,[D].2005
王亚军.2004.黄土高原半干旱区农业生态系统集雨干预的安全分析及模式研究,[D].63.
文振旺,石玉林,黄荣金等,新疆土壤地理,北京:科学出版社.1965.
吴次芳,陈美球.1997.乡村土地整理的若干技术问题探讨,中国土地科学.11(4):41-45.
吴冬秀,王根轩,赵松龄.1998.黄土高原半干旱地区水土保持植被类型选择的生态经济学思考,科技导报.10(10)54-56.
肖国举,王静.2003.黄土高原集水农业研究进展,生态学报.23(5)1004-1011.
谢经荣,林培.1996.论土地持续利用[J],中国人口·资源与环境.6(4)13-17.
谢俊奇.1998.可持续土地利用的社会、资源环境和经济影响评价的初步研究[J],中国土地科学.12(3)1-5.
徐辉,张捷,沙庆益,王久伟.2001.生态经济学的研究内容和方法,林业勘察设计.(2)28.
许宝泉.2006.基于3S技术的祖历河流域集水农业潜力研究,[D].113.
许炯心.2000.黄土高原生态环境建设的若干问题与研究需求,水土保持研究.7(2)10-13.
许彦曦,彭补拙,李春华.1998.土地用途管制与区域土地资源可持续利用研究[J],土壤.(3)137-142.
严金明,钟金发,池国仁.土地整理,北京:经济管理出版社.1998.
杨勤业,景可,申元村.2001.黄土高原生态建设与减灾,中国减灾.11(1)19-22.
杨蕴玉.2005.澳大利亚的节水措施及其启示,干旱地区农业研究.23(4)234-236.
杨志清.2005.农业节水与技术创新,干旱地区农业研究.23(6)184-186.
尹君.2001.可持续土地利用内涵及其评价指标体系研究[J],河北农业大学学报.24(1)78-81.
余海鹏,孙亚范,黄适富.1998.重庆市农业土地资源开发利用的可持续性评价[J],数量经济技术经济研究.(2)27-30.
宇振荣,邱建军,王建武艺.土地利用系统分析方法与实践,北京:中国农业科技出版社.1998.
岳天祥.2001.生物多样性研究及其问题,生态学报.21(3)462-467.
张建新,郑大玮.2005.国内外集雨农业研究进展与展望,干旱地区农业研究.23:223-229.
张明.2001.以土地利用/土地覆被变化为中心的土地科学研究进展,地理科学进展.20(4)297-304.
张维邦.1989.论黄土高原生态环境遭到彻底破坏的祸根,水土保持通报.9(1)21-27.
赵聚宝,李克煌.干旱与农业[M]北京:中国农业出版社.1995
赵其国.2004.土地资源,大地母亲--必须高度重视我国土地资源的保护、建设与可持续利用问题,土地科学.36(4)337-339.
赵松岭,集水农业引论[M].西安:陕西科学技术出版社,1996
赵松岭,李凤民,王静.1995.半干旱地区集水农业的可行性[J],西北植物学报.15(8)9-12.
郑华,欧阳志云,赵同谦等.2003.人类行为对生态系统服务结构的影响,自然资源学报.18(1)118-126.
中国科学院中国植被图编委会.中国植被图集,北京:科学出版社.2001.
中国农业科学院.当代世界农业[M].成都:四川科学技术出版社.1991.
朱绍文.《经典经济学与现代经济学》,北京:北京大学出版社.2000.
朱万斌,邱化蛟,常欣,程序.2005.农业生态系统生产力的概念及其度量方法,中国农业科学.38(5)983-989.