我国转型期经济波动问题研究
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摘要
我国的经济发展总是与经济波动相生相伴。在计划经济体制下,总供求受计划制定者主观意志的影响很大,经济波动的规律性受到很大程度的干扰,经济运行多次出现“大起大落”的局面。进入转型期,随着社会主义市场经济体制改革的深入和发展模式的转换,市场的作用日益增强,中国经济进入了长达三十年的增长阶段,但在中国经济保持相对快速稳定增长的同时,中国经济波动也进入了一个新阶段。通过对经济波动的深入研究,将有助于提早发现和解决各种威胁经济稳定增长的问题。对经济波动的研究有利于我们认识社会主义市场经济条件下经济波动的客观规律,把握经济运行的发展态势,适时适度地采取宏观调控措施,保持国民经济持续、稳定、协调发展。对改革开放30年来经济波动出现的新特征进行全面、系统的测定和分析,进而探索转型时期经济波动的形成机制及影响因素,对中国经济继续保持持续稳定增长具有重要的实践意义和重大的理论意义。本文主要研究了转型期我国经济波动的特征、影响因素以及相关的政策对策,论文第一部分首先简要介绍了经济转型与经济波动的一般理论以及治理经济波动的手段等内容;第二部分主要介绍了我国转型期经济社会发展的特征以及历次中国经济波动的特点。第三部分重点分析了并考察了转型期经济波动的性质、特征以及主要影响因素,探究了中国经济波动的原因及影响因素。第四部分在前文研究的基础上,借鉴俄罗斯、东欧国家转型期平抑经济波动的经验。第五部分探讨了应对经济波动的宏观调控政策。希望本文能为解决我国转型期经济波动问题起到一些积极和有益的推动作用。
It's known that there has always been a close relationship between the economic development and the economic fluctuation in China. The rule of the economic fluctuations was to the great extent linked with policymakers, who had a great influence on aggregate supply and aggregate demand in the period of China's centrally planned economy, and therefore China experienced violent ups and downs of economy many times. With the development of the socialist market and economic growth mode, the market playing more and more important role in economic growth, China's economy grew stably and rapidly in the past 30 years. China, therefore, has entered a new stage of economic fluctuations. The comprehensive and systematic analysis on characteristics of China's economic fluctuations, in the three decades of reform and opening up, will contribute to earlier finding out problems of threatening China's economic growth, understanding objective rules of economic fluctuations in the socialist market, taking appropriate macro-controlled measures to maintain a sustainable, stable and coordinated growth of China's national economy, exploring the formation mechanism of economic fluctuations in China's transition, and having a great significance to practices and theories of China's rapid and steady economic growth. The thesis highlights characteristics, key factors and relative policies of China's economic fluctuations in transition economy in consisting of five parts in order to solve the problem of China's economic fluctuations in the process of its transition. The firs part briefly introduces the general theory of transition economy and economic fluctuations, as well as governance measures of economic fluctuations. The second part introduces characteristics of China's transition economy development and its economic fluctuations. The third part focuses on nature, characteristics and factors of economic fluctuations in the process of China's transition so as to explore causes and key influencing factors of China's economic fluctuations. The fourth part analytics the experience of how the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union to address economic fluctuations in the process of their transition economies. The fifth part discusses on macro-controlled policies of addressing China's economic fluctuations in the process of its transition.
It's known that there has always been a close relationship between the economic development and the economic fluctuation in China. The rule of the economic fluctuations was to the great extent linked with policymakers, who had a great influence on aggregate supply and aggregate demand in the period of China's centrally planned economy, and therefore China experienced violent ups and downs of economy many times. With the development of the socialist market and economic growth mode, the market playing more and more important role in economic growth, China's economy grew stably and rapidly in the past 30 years. China, therefore, has entered a new stage of economic fluctuations. The comprehensive and systematic analysis on characteristics of China's economic fluctuations, in the three decades of reform and opening up, will contribute to earlier finding out problems of threatening China's economic growth, understanding objective rules of economic fluctuations in the socialist market, taking appropriate macro-controlled measures to maintain a sustainable, stable and coordinated growth of China's national economy, exploring the formation mechanism of economic fluctuations in China's transition, and having a great significance to practices and theories of China's rapid and steady economic growth. The thesis highlights characteristics, key factors and relative policies of China's economic fluctuations in transition economy in consisting of five parts in order to solve the problem of China's economic fluctuations in the process of its transition. The firs part briefly introduces the general theory of transition economy and economic fluctuations, as well as governance measures of economic fluctuations. The second part introduces characteristics of China's transition economy development and its economic fluctuations. The third part focuses on nature, characteristics and factors of economic fluctuations in the process of China's transition so as to explore causes and key influencing factors of China's economic fluctuations. The fourth part analytics the experience of how the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union to address economic fluctuations in the process of their transition economies. The fifth part discusses on macro-controlled policies of addressing China's economic fluctuations in the process of its transition.
引文
①经济数量关系研究三十年[J].乌家培、刘树成.经济研究.1985.6.
②论中国的经济波动[J].宫著铭.数量经济技术经济研究.1986.9.
③毕大川、刘树成主编.经济周期与顶警系统[C].北京.社会科学文献出版社.1990.
④论中国经济周期波动的新阶段[J].刘树成.经济研究.1996.11.
⑤对经济周期形成原因的重新认识[J].李翀.当代经济研究.2005.8.
⑥中国的经济增长与周期波动[J].刘树成、张平.宏观经济研究.2005.12.
①中国经济周期波动的经验分析[J].梁琪、滕建州.世界经济.2007.2.
②当前我国经济周期阶段与对策分析[J].陈乐一.中国流通经济.2009.2.
①宫志刚.社会转型与秩序重建[M].北京.中国人民公安大学出版社.2004.第6页.
①吴光炳.转型经济学[M].北京.北京大学出版社.2008.第55页.
②吴光炳.转型经济学[M].北京.北京大学出版社.2008.第29-30页.
①龚一萍.宏观经济管理分析[M].长沙.湖南人民出版社.2005.第79-80页.
①中国转型期反经济周期问题研究[D].蒙志鹏.2006.
①中国转型期反经济周期问题研究[D].蒙志鹏.2006.
①林兆木.经济周期与宏观调控[C].北京.中国计划出版社.2008.第35页.
①刘恒.中国社会主义经济周期理论研究[M].成都.西南财经大学出版社.2006.第82-83页.
①崔友平.烫平经济周期的宏观经济政策研究[M].北京.经济科学出版社.2004.第176页.
①改革开放三十年中国经济周期与宏观调控[J].黄赜琳.财经研究.2008.11.
①改革开放三十年中国经济周期与宏观调控[J].黄赜琳.财经研究.2008.11.
①资料来源:中国转型期反经济周期问题研究[D].蒙志鹏.2006. 潘德礼主编.列国志.俄罗斯[M].北京.中国社会科学文献版社.2005.
①资料来源:李丹琳主编.列国志.匈牙利[M].北京.社会科学文献出版社.2006.
②资料来源:李秀环主编.列国志.罗马尼亚[M].北京.社会科学文献出版社.2006.
①资料来源:高德平主编.列国志.波兰[M].北京.社会科学文献出版社.2005.
①合理配置宏观调控部门职能,提高宏观调控水平.[M].李军鹏.人民日报.2008.3.1
①李一鸣.宏观经济调控研究[M].成都.西南财经大学出版社.2006.第112页.
1.刘树成.经济周期与宏观调控[M].北京.社会科学文献出版社.2005.
2.刘树成.中国经济周期研究报告[M].北京.社会科学文献出版社.2006.
3.刘恒.中国社会主义经济周期理论研究[M].成都.西南财经大学出版社.2006.
4.王健.景气政策与中国经济繁荣[M].北京.国家行政学院出版社.2007.
5.吴亚卓.宏观经济调控研究[M].北京.北京邮电大学出版社2005.
6.蒋选.中国宏观经济运行与调控[M].北京.中国财政经济出版社.2006.
7.刘崇仪.经济周期论[M].北京.人民出版社.2006.
8.宫志刚.社会转型与秩序重建[M].北京.中国人民公安大学出版社.2004.
9.龚一萍.宏观经济管理分析[M].长沙.湖南人民出版社.2005.
10.徐泰玲.宏观经济管理研究[M].北京.人民出版社.2004.
11.林兆木.经济周期与宏观调控[C].北京.中国计划出版社.2008.
12.苏汝.中国经济周期波动研究[M].北京.经济日报出版社.2007.
13.陈乐一.我国经济周期阶段与持续繁荣[M].北京.人民出版社.2007.
14.李一鸣.宏观经济调控研究[M].成都.西南财经大学出版社.2006.
15.崔友平.烫平经济周期的宏观经济政策研究[M].北京.经济科学出版社.2004.
16.毕大川、刘树成主编.经济周期与顶警系统[C].北京.社会科学文献出版社.1990.
17.李秀环主编.列国志.罗马尼亚[M].北京.社会科学文献出版社.2006.
18.潘德礼主编.列国志.俄罗斯[M].北京.中国社会科学文献版社.2005.
19.高德平主编.列国志.波兰[M].北京.社会科学文献出版社.2005.
20.汪丽敏主编.列国志.斯洛文尼亚[M].北京.社会科学文献出版社.2006.
21.李丹琳主编.列国志.匈牙利[M].北京.社会科学文献出版社.2006.
22.吴光炳.转型经济学[M].北京.北京大学出版社.2008.
23.经济数量关系研究三十年[J].经济研究.1985年.6.
24.乌家培、刘树成.论中国的经济波动[J].宫著铭.数量经济技术经济研究.1986.9.
25.刘树成.论中国经济周期波动的新阶段[J].经济研究.1996.11.
26.李 .对经济周期形成原因的重新认识[J].当代经济研究.2005.8.
27.刘树成、张平.中国的经济增长与周期波动[J].宏观经济研究.2005.12.
28.梁琪、滕建州.中国经济周期波动的经验分析[J].世界经济.2007.2.
29.陈乐一.当前我国经济周期阶段与对策分析[J].中国流通经济.2009.2.
30.蒙志鹏.中国转型期反经济周期问题研究[D].2006.
31.黄赜琳.改革开放三十年中国经济周期与宏观调控[J].财经研究.2008.11.
32.张奕琳.我国经济周期阶段与固定资产投资关系研究[D].2007.
33.李军鹏.合理配置宏观调控部门职能,提高宏观调控水平.[M].人民日报.2008.3.1
②论中国的经济波动[J].宫著铭.数量经济技术经济研究.1986.9.
③毕大川、刘树成主编.经济周期与顶警系统[C].北京.社会科学文献出版社.1990.
④论中国经济周期波动的新阶段[J].刘树成.经济研究.1996.11.
⑤对经济周期形成原因的重新认识[J].李翀.当代经济研究.2005.8.
⑥中国的经济增长与周期波动[J].刘树成、张平.宏观经济研究.2005.12.
①中国经济周期波动的经验分析[J].梁琪、滕建州.世界经济.2007.2.
②当前我国经济周期阶段与对策分析[J].陈乐一.中国流通经济.2009.2.
①宫志刚.社会转型与秩序重建[M].北京.中国人民公安大学出版社.2004.第6页.
①吴光炳.转型经济学[M].北京.北京大学出版社.2008.第55页.
②吴光炳.转型经济学[M].北京.北京大学出版社.2008.第29-30页.
①龚一萍.宏观经济管理分析[M].长沙.湖南人民出版社.2005.第79-80页.
①中国转型期反经济周期问题研究[D].蒙志鹏.2006.
①中国转型期反经济周期问题研究[D].蒙志鹏.2006.
①林兆木.经济周期与宏观调控[C].北京.中国计划出版社.2008.第35页.
①刘恒.中国社会主义经济周期理论研究[M].成都.西南财经大学出版社.2006.第82-83页.
①崔友平.烫平经济周期的宏观经济政策研究[M].北京.经济科学出版社.2004.第176页.
①改革开放三十年中国经济周期与宏观调控[J].黄赜琳.财经研究.2008.11.
①改革开放三十年中国经济周期与宏观调控[J].黄赜琳.财经研究.2008.11.
①资料来源:中国转型期反经济周期问题研究[D].蒙志鹏.2006. 潘德礼主编.列国志.俄罗斯[M].北京.中国社会科学文献版社.2005.
①资料来源:李丹琳主编.列国志.匈牙利[M].北京.社会科学文献出版社.2006.
②资料来源:李秀环主编.列国志.罗马尼亚[M].北京.社会科学文献出版社.2006.
①资料来源:高德平主编.列国志.波兰[M].北京.社会科学文献出版社.2005.
①合理配置宏观调控部门职能,提高宏观调控水平.[M].李军鹏.人民日报.2008.3.1
①李一鸣.宏观经济调控研究[M].成都.西南财经大学出版社.2006.第112页.
1.刘树成.经济周期与宏观调控[M].北京.社会科学文献出版社.2005.
2.刘树成.中国经济周期研究报告[M].北京.社会科学文献出版社.2006.
3.刘恒.中国社会主义经济周期理论研究[M].成都.西南财经大学出版社.2006.
4.王健.景气政策与中国经济繁荣[M].北京.国家行政学院出版社.2007.
5.吴亚卓.宏观经济调控研究[M].北京.北京邮电大学出版社2005.
6.蒋选.中国宏观经济运行与调控[M].北京.中国财政经济出版社.2006.
7.刘崇仪.经济周期论[M].北京.人民出版社.2006.
8.宫志刚.社会转型与秩序重建[M].北京.中国人民公安大学出版社.2004.
9.龚一萍.宏观经济管理分析[M].长沙.湖南人民出版社.2005.
10.徐泰玲.宏观经济管理研究[M].北京.人民出版社.2004.
11.林兆木.经济周期与宏观调控[C].北京.中国计划出版社.2008.
12.苏汝.中国经济周期波动研究[M].北京.经济日报出版社.2007.
13.陈乐一.我国经济周期阶段与持续繁荣[M].北京.人民出版社.2007.
14.李一鸣.宏观经济调控研究[M].成都.西南财经大学出版社.2006.
15.崔友平.烫平经济周期的宏观经济政策研究[M].北京.经济科学出版社.2004.
16.毕大川、刘树成主编.经济周期与顶警系统[C].北京.社会科学文献出版社.1990.
17.李秀环主编.列国志.罗马尼亚[M].北京.社会科学文献出版社.2006.
18.潘德礼主编.列国志.俄罗斯[M].北京.中国社会科学文献版社.2005.
19.高德平主编.列国志.波兰[M].北京.社会科学文献出版社.2005.
20.汪丽敏主编.列国志.斯洛文尼亚[M].北京.社会科学文献出版社.2006.
21.李丹琳主编.列国志.匈牙利[M].北京.社会科学文献出版社.2006.
22.吴光炳.转型经济学[M].北京.北京大学出版社.2008.
23.经济数量关系研究三十年[J].经济研究.1985年.6.
24.乌家培、刘树成.论中国的经济波动[J].宫著铭.数量经济技术经济研究.1986.9.
25.刘树成.论中国经济周期波动的新阶段[J].经济研究.1996.11.
26.李 .对经济周期形成原因的重新认识[J].当代经济研究.2005.8.
27.刘树成、张平.中国的经济增长与周期波动[J].宏观经济研究.2005.12.
28.梁琪、滕建州.中国经济周期波动的经验分析[J].世界经济.2007.2.
29.陈乐一.当前我国经济周期阶段与对策分析[J].中国流通经济.2009.2.
30.蒙志鹏.中国转型期反经济周期问题研究[D].2006.
31.黄赜琳.改革开放三十年中国经济周期与宏观调控[J].财经研究.2008.11.
32.张奕琳.我国经济周期阶段与固定资产投资关系研究[D].2007.
33.李军鹏.合理配置宏观调控部门职能,提高宏观调控水平.[M].人民日报.2008.3.1