转型期中国制造业结构变动研究
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摘要
制造业结构合理化和高端化是制造业竞争力提高的关键,目前中国制造业结构无法满足激烈的国际竞争要求,同时“民工荒”的发生及劳动力成本上升周期的到来、资源短缺、环境恶化等发展条件的深刻变化严重冲击国内制造业依赖廉价劳动力和资源的比较优势进行扩张的发展模式,迫切需要进行结构升级。20世纪90年代中期开始,中国制造业结构发生较大变动,处于向更高层次提升的转型阶段,这一时期的制造业发展是当前制造业结构状态形成的基础。要推动制造业结构合理调整以适应国内外竞争要求,必须对制造业结构升级进行理论上的有力指导,尤其是通过转型期中国制造业结构变动的实践发展的研究,指引制造业结构快速提升。然而,在有关产业结构研究文献中,国外专门针对制造业结构变动进行专题论述的内容比较少,国内学者对转型期这一特定阶段中国制造业结构新变动进行的理论研究比较匮乏,无法对国内制造业结构升级产生有力的理论支撑。理论研究现状和制造业发展的现实需求,都要求对转型期中国制造业结构变动进行认真总结。本文研究正是满足这一需要。
本文首先运用偏离份额分析法探讨转型期不同要素密集型制造业及其内部各行业的结构变动形态,判断结构高度的演化状况,明确不同行业规模增长的内部结构动力,解决已有研究对不同行业内部结构关系的模糊认识及对结构高度的错误判断;然后针对已有研究忽视结构变动的开放性特征并对制造业结构变动效率增长判断的分歧,构建反映要素异质性的效率测量模型,考察制造业效率的改善状况,以此评价制造业结构变动的效果;随后运用逐步回归法分析影响转型期中国制造业结构变动的重要因素,从中探寻推动结构提升的突破口;最后,结合结构变动的现实和国际分工发展对制造业结构升级的要求,指出国内现有策略的不足,提出未来结构变动应建立在动态比较优势策略上。
研究表明,20世纪90年代中期以后,技术密集型行业扩张最快,劳动密集型制造业对要素的总体吸引度则下降,增值水平改善较大的行业其发展快于其它行业,制造业结构高度得到一定提高。在制造业结构变动中,要素流动导致的类型结构变动成为行业增长的主要动力,而不同要素密集型制造业内部各部门的结构不平衡性发展,是不同行业相互竞争引发的要素配置结果,尚未成为制造业结构调整的主要推动力。
然而,从制造业增值水平和结构调整效率看,劳动密集型制造业在增值能力和效率改善上明显优于资本密集型制造业和技术密集型制造业,资本密集型制造业又好于技术密集型制造业,形成了结构加快优化、效率改善滞后的局面,说明转型期中国制造业结构虚高特征明显,结构升级的总体水平还比较低。制造业结构变动的这种状况,与需求结构升级、技术创新、经济开放度、制度变革、劳动力成本、人力资源素质密不可分,其中技术创新成为结构变动的首要影响因素,劳动力成本上升、人力资源素质优化有利于推动结构升级。
未来中国制造业结构升级应加快发展策略转换,由以静态比较优势为主的思路调整到动态比较优势的构筑上,加强行业结构升级所需的科技、管理、服务等人力资本的战略性要素培养,把更多的一般劳动力加速培养成具有较高知识与技能的知识型劳动力,发展高级劳动密集型制造业,实现由低级劳动密集型转向高级劳动密集型即密集使用丰富人力资本的结构升级新路径。
It’s critical for improving manufacturing competitive ability to make manufacturing structure rationalization and high-end. At present, the manufacturing structure in China can’t meet the international competitive demand. At the same time, the development conditions, such as the emergence of“lack of civilian workers”, rising period of labor cost, lack of resource and environmental degradation etc, have changed deeply, which impact the development mode of outspread that depends on competitive advantage of cheap labor and resource and it needs upgrade immediately. From the mid 1990s, the manufacturing structure in China has changed a lot, and it is at the transforming period which is up to higher level. At this period, the development of manufacturing is the basis of current manufacturing structure to be formed. To drive manufacturing structure to make reasonable adjustment to meet the competitive demand at home and abroad must have powerful guidance in theory to the upgrade of manufacturing structure and especially, by the research of the changes on manufacturing structure in China at transforming period, it will lead the manufacturing structure improved quickly. However, in related productive structure research articles, there are few about the manufacturing structural changes in foreign research articles. The domestic scholars are short of theory research about the manufacturing structural changes in the specific period. The status of theory research and realistic demand of the manufacturing development both require to summarize the changes of manufacturing structure at transforming period in China seriously. The article is just to meet the demand.
At first, the shift-share analysis has been used in the article to discuss the structural alteration forms of different factor intensive manufacturing and its internal industries in the transform period, to estimate the evolvement status of structural height, and to make research of internal structural drive of industry increase alteration; then aiming at the research about the shortages and bifurcations of manufacturing structural alteration in China, build efficiency measure model to reflect factor heterogeneity, review the improving status of manufacturing efficiency, and then take it to evaluate the effect of manufacturing structural alteration; subsequently, the article uses stepwise analysis to analyze important factors which can affect the structural alteration in china to explore a breakthrough way to drive structural upgrade; finally, combining with the requirements for manufacturing upgrade that structure alteration facts and international cooperation development require, the article bring forward that the future structural evolvement should be based on the strategy of dynamic comparative advantage.
The research has shown that from the mid 1990s, the technology intensive industry in manufacturing has expanded fastest, while labor intensive manufacturing attractive degree to factor descends. The development level of the industry which increment level is improved higher is faster than other industries, and manufacturing structure height has been boosted at a certain extent. In manufacturing structure alteration, the style structure alteration which is resulted by factor flow has become the main drive in the industry growth. However, the imbalance development in the different factor intensive manufacturing industries is the result that different industries’factors configure because of completion with each other, and it hasn’t become main drive factor of manufacturing structural adjustment.
However, from the level of manufacturing increment and the efficiency of structural adjustment, labor intensive manufacturing has more advantages in increment and efficiency than those of capital intensive and technology intensive manufacturing. However, capital intensive manufacturing is better than technology intensive manufacturing. Consequently it forms the situation that structure optimized quickly, while efficiency improvement is lagged. It shows that the character of virtual highness of manufacturing structure in China is obvious and the overall level of manufacturing structural upgrade in China is low at transforming period, structural adjustment is ongoing under the situation that scale outspread takes the leading role and efficiency improvement need to be strengthened. The situation in manufacturing structural change is closely in relation to demand structural upgrade, progress of technology, economic opening degree, system transform, labor cost, and human resource abilities. The progress of technology becomes the chief effect factor, and labor cost rise and optimization of human resource abilities are in favor of improving structure upgrade.
In the future structural update of manufacturing in China should quicken development strategy alteration, and change the leading thought from static comparative advantage into building up the dynamic comparative advantage and strengthening strategic factors training of technology, administrative, service and other human resources capital, which the industry structural upgrade will need, training more common labor into knowledge-type labor which has rich knowledge and skill quickly, building high-level labor intensive manufacturing, realizing the alteration from low-level labor intensive to high-level labor intensive, which is a new path for making full use of rich human resource capital on structural upgrade.
本文首先运用偏离份额分析法探讨转型期不同要素密集型制造业及其内部各行业的结构变动形态,判断结构高度的演化状况,明确不同行业规模增长的内部结构动力,解决已有研究对不同行业内部结构关系的模糊认识及对结构高度的错误判断;然后针对已有研究忽视结构变动的开放性特征并对制造业结构变动效率增长判断的分歧,构建反映要素异质性的效率测量模型,考察制造业效率的改善状况,以此评价制造业结构变动的效果;随后运用逐步回归法分析影响转型期中国制造业结构变动的重要因素,从中探寻推动结构提升的突破口;最后,结合结构变动的现实和国际分工发展对制造业结构升级的要求,指出国内现有策略的不足,提出未来结构变动应建立在动态比较优势策略上。
研究表明,20世纪90年代中期以后,技术密集型行业扩张最快,劳动密集型制造业对要素的总体吸引度则下降,增值水平改善较大的行业其发展快于其它行业,制造业结构高度得到一定提高。在制造业结构变动中,要素流动导致的类型结构变动成为行业增长的主要动力,而不同要素密集型制造业内部各部门的结构不平衡性发展,是不同行业相互竞争引发的要素配置结果,尚未成为制造业结构调整的主要推动力。
然而,从制造业增值水平和结构调整效率看,劳动密集型制造业在增值能力和效率改善上明显优于资本密集型制造业和技术密集型制造业,资本密集型制造业又好于技术密集型制造业,形成了结构加快优化、效率改善滞后的局面,说明转型期中国制造业结构虚高特征明显,结构升级的总体水平还比较低。制造业结构变动的这种状况,与需求结构升级、技术创新、经济开放度、制度变革、劳动力成本、人力资源素质密不可分,其中技术创新成为结构变动的首要影响因素,劳动力成本上升、人力资源素质优化有利于推动结构升级。
未来中国制造业结构升级应加快发展策略转换,由以静态比较优势为主的思路调整到动态比较优势的构筑上,加强行业结构升级所需的科技、管理、服务等人力资本的战略性要素培养,把更多的一般劳动力加速培养成具有较高知识与技能的知识型劳动力,发展高级劳动密集型制造业,实现由低级劳动密集型转向高级劳动密集型即密集使用丰富人力资本的结构升级新路径。
It’s critical for improving manufacturing competitive ability to make manufacturing structure rationalization and high-end. At present, the manufacturing structure in China can’t meet the international competitive demand. At the same time, the development conditions, such as the emergence of“lack of civilian workers”, rising period of labor cost, lack of resource and environmental degradation etc, have changed deeply, which impact the development mode of outspread that depends on competitive advantage of cheap labor and resource and it needs upgrade immediately. From the mid 1990s, the manufacturing structure in China has changed a lot, and it is at the transforming period which is up to higher level. At this period, the development of manufacturing is the basis of current manufacturing structure to be formed. To drive manufacturing structure to make reasonable adjustment to meet the competitive demand at home and abroad must have powerful guidance in theory to the upgrade of manufacturing structure and especially, by the research of the changes on manufacturing structure in China at transforming period, it will lead the manufacturing structure improved quickly. However, in related productive structure research articles, there are few about the manufacturing structural changes in foreign research articles. The domestic scholars are short of theory research about the manufacturing structural changes in the specific period. The status of theory research and realistic demand of the manufacturing development both require to summarize the changes of manufacturing structure at transforming period in China seriously. The article is just to meet the demand.
At first, the shift-share analysis has been used in the article to discuss the structural alteration forms of different factor intensive manufacturing and its internal industries in the transform period, to estimate the evolvement status of structural height, and to make research of internal structural drive of industry increase alteration; then aiming at the research about the shortages and bifurcations of manufacturing structural alteration in China, build efficiency measure model to reflect factor heterogeneity, review the improving status of manufacturing efficiency, and then take it to evaluate the effect of manufacturing structural alteration; subsequently, the article uses stepwise analysis to analyze important factors which can affect the structural alteration in china to explore a breakthrough way to drive structural upgrade; finally, combining with the requirements for manufacturing upgrade that structure alteration facts and international cooperation development require, the article bring forward that the future structural evolvement should be based on the strategy of dynamic comparative advantage.
The research has shown that from the mid 1990s, the technology intensive industry in manufacturing has expanded fastest, while labor intensive manufacturing attractive degree to factor descends. The development level of the industry which increment level is improved higher is faster than other industries, and manufacturing structure height has been boosted at a certain extent. In manufacturing structure alteration, the style structure alteration which is resulted by factor flow has become the main drive in the industry growth. However, the imbalance development in the different factor intensive manufacturing industries is the result that different industries’factors configure because of completion with each other, and it hasn’t become main drive factor of manufacturing structural adjustment.
However, from the level of manufacturing increment and the efficiency of structural adjustment, labor intensive manufacturing has more advantages in increment and efficiency than those of capital intensive and technology intensive manufacturing. However, capital intensive manufacturing is better than technology intensive manufacturing. Consequently it forms the situation that structure optimized quickly, while efficiency improvement is lagged. It shows that the character of virtual highness of manufacturing structure in China is obvious and the overall level of manufacturing structural upgrade in China is low at transforming period, structural adjustment is ongoing under the situation that scale outspread takes the leading role and efficiency improvement need to be strengthened. The situation in manufacturing structural change is closely in relation to demand structural upgrade, progress of technology, economic opening degree, system transform, labor cost, and human resource abilities. The progress of technology becomes the chief effect factor, and labor cost rise and optimization of human resource abilities are in favor of improving structure upgrade.
In the future structural update of manufacturing in China should quicken development strategy alteration, and change the leading thought from static comparative advantage into building up the dynamic comparative advantage and strengthening strategic factors training of technology, administrative, service and other human resources capital, which the industry structural upgrade will need, training more common labor into knowledge-type labor which has rich knowledge and skill quickly, building high-level labor intensive manufacturing, realizing the alteration from low-level labor intensive to high-level labor intensive, which is a new path for making full use of rich human resource capital on structural upgrade.
引文
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