基于GIS与统计的地下水埋深模拟研究
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摘要
水资源是人类生存生活和社会经济发展必不可少的重要战略资源,随着我国社会经济的进一步发展,水资源供需矛盾变得更加尖锐,已经严重影响到人类生存发展的各个领域。地下水作为我国大部分地区的主要供水水源,在当今水资源日益短缺的严峻形势下,将具有越来越重要的地位。宁夏西吉县属于国家重点扶持的少数民族聚集地区,地下水资源作为西吉县“三水’利用中宝贵的一部分,现已成为工业、城镇生活、农业灌溉的主重要水源。西吉县葫芦河是渭河主要的一条支流,在西吉县人民吃水用水中起着举足轻重的作用。其地处干旱地区,水文、生态系统比较敏感、脆弱,加之西吉县境内干旱缺水、水土流失严重,人为因素又造成环境污染,该地区生态环境和水资源可承载能力日趋恶化,进一步加剧了水资源的短缺,严重影响到了当地人民的生产生活。因此,如何对葫芦河流域水资源进行深入研究,快速有效寻找地下水,合理安排使用地下水,解决缺水地区人畜吃水难,用水难的问题,成为西吉县政府和人民亟待解决的问题。
影响地下水分布的因素有气候、水文、地质、生物、宇宙以及人类活动等,这些因素很多,各种因素自身又在不断变化,因此研究地下水十分困难,而GIS技术具有宏观、综合、动态、快速的特点,这为地下水资源调查和水位模拟提供了新的方法和手段。地下水模拟模型是刻画、表征和再现地下水系统的一种有效工具和常用手段,可以模拟地下水系统特征及其应力响应的预测,可以解决复杂水文地质条件和地下水开发利用条件下的地下水资源评价问题,GIS己成为研究地下水系统最有效、应用最广泛的方法之一。当今地下水埋深模拟研究,主要采用数值模型进行模拟,这些地下水模型,需要涉及的诸多水文地质参数复杂且不易获取,模型操作困难,调试运行时间周期比较长。而经验模型(如统计模型)需要的数量较少,并能得到满意结果。因此,本文通过SPSS、ArcGIS等软件,应用地统计方法,通过分析研究地下水埋深、地形地貌、水文气象、地质构造、地层岩性等,结合相关分析、方差分析、回Ijr]分析以及插值等方法,探讨影响研究区内地下水埋深的主要因素及原因,完成对葫芦河西吉县境内地下水埋深的模拟,建立研究区内地下水空间预报体系,并得到以下结论：
(1)研究区内地下水埋深主要受降水量影响。这主要因为葫芦河流域地势高,地下水基本不接受邻区地下水的侧向补给,主要靠降水入渗而形成。因而降水量的多少,蒸发量的大小,直接控制着地下水资源的丰富程度。
(2)得到研究区总体地下水埋深和潜水、承压水埋深的回归方程。
(3)通过比较,“多项式回归+残差插值”法,较好的模拟了研究区内地下水埋深。
Water resources are important and essential strategic resources for human life and socio-economic development. Further socio-economic development, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources becomes more acute and has seriously affected the human survival and development. Groundwater as the main source of water supply in most parts of China, the grim situation in today's growing water scarcity, will have an increasingly important role. Xiji County is supported by the state minority area, groundwater resources as a valuable use of Xiji County Sanshui'part, has now become the main important water resources of industrial, urban life and agricultural irrigation. Hulu River is a tributary of the Weihe River and plays an important role in Xiji County. It locates in arid regions, and its hydrology, ecosystem are sensitive and fragile. Xiji County is short of water, serious soil erosion and environmental pollution caused by human. So the ecological environment and water resources carrying capacity is deterioration and exacerbate by the shortage of water resources, seriously affected the production and life of the local people. Therefore, how to carry out an in-depth study of the Hulu River Basin Water Resources, quickly and efficiently search for groundwater, reasonable arrangements for the use of groundwater to address the difficulty of drinking water of dryland people and livestock. the Xiji County Government and people need to resolve all the problems.
There are many elements which affect the arrangement of the groundwater, such as climate, hydrology, geology, biology, universe and mans activity and so on. And the elements are continuous changing, so it is hard to study on groundwater. And the technology of GIS have features of macroscopic, synthesized, dynamic, rapid, it offers new method and measure for groundwater resources survey and water-level simulation. The model of groundwater simulation is an effective mean and conventional method which is used to character, represent and reappear the groundwater system. It can simulate the characteristic of the groundwater system and predict the corresponding for the stress. And it also can solve groundwater resources evaluation on complex hydrogeology condition and groundwater exploitation and utilization condition. The model becomes one of the most effective and widely methods for research of groundwater system. Now, numerical model is the principal way on the research of groundwater level simulation. These groundwater model needs many hydrogeology parameters which are complex and difficult to obtain. It is difficult to operate and need very long time period to commissioning and operation. While empirical model(such as statistical model) need less to receive the satisfactory result. Therefore, through analysis groundwater level, topography, hydrometeorology, geological structure, formation lithology and so on, combination of correlation analysis,variance analysis,regression analysis, interpolation and so on, this paper discuss the primary elements and reason which affect the groundwater level in the study region, complete the simulation of Hulu River which is in the range of Xiji county, build the groundwater water forecast in the research region, and educe the conclusion as follow:
(1) The groundwater depth is affected by the precipitation in my study area. This is mainly due to the high terrain of the Hulu River basin, groundwater basic does not accept lateral recharge of groundwater in adjacent areas, and it is formed mainly by infiltration of precipitation. Thus the amount of precipitation and the size of evaporation directly control the richness of the groundwater resources.
(2) Get the regression equation of groundwater depth and diving, confined water depth in my study area.
(3) By compare,the method of polynomial regression and residual interpolation, the paper simulates the groundwater depth in the study area.
影响地下水分布的因素有气候、水文、地质、生物、宇宙以及人类活动等,这些因素很多,各种因素自身又在不断变化,因此研究地下水十分困难,而GIS技术具有宏观、综合、动态、快速的特点,这为地下水资源调查和水位模拟提供了新的方法和手段。地下水模拟模型是刻画、表征和再现地下水系统的一种有效工具和常用手段,可以模拟地下水系统特征及其应力响应的预测,可以解决复杂水文地质条件和地下水开发利用条件下的地下水资源评价问题,GIS己成为研究地下水系统最有效、应用最广泛的方法之一。当今地下水埋深模拟研究,主要采用数值模型进行模拟,这些地下水模型,需要涉及的诸多水文地质参数复杂且不易获取,模型操作困难,调试运行时间周期比较长。而经验模型(如统计模型)需要的数量较少,并能得到满意结果。因此,本文通过SPSS、ArcGIS等软件,应用地统计方法,通过分析研究地下水埋深、地形地貌、水文气象、地质构造、地层岩性等,结合相关分析、方差分析、回Ijr]分析以及插值等方法,探讨影响研究区内地下水埋深的主要因素及原因,完成对葫芦河西吉县境内地下水埋深的模拟,建立研究区内地下水空间预报体系,并得到以下结论：
(1)研究区内地下水埋深主要受降水量影响。这主要因为葫芦河流域地势高,地下水基本不接受邻区地下水的侧向补给,主要靠降水入渗而形成。因而降水量的多少,蒸发量的大小,直接控制着地下水资源的丰富程度。
(2)得到研究区总体地下水埋深和潜水、承压水埋深的回归方程。
(3)通过比较,“多项式回归+残差插值”法,较好的模拟了研究区内地下水埋深。
Water resources are important and essential strategic resources for human life and socio-economic development. Further socio-economic development, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources becomes more acute and has seriously affected the human survival and development. Groundwater as the main source of water supply in most parts of China, the grim situation in today's growing water scarcity, will have an increasingly important role. Xiji County is supported by the state minority area, groundwater resources as a valuable use of Xiji County Sanshui'part, has now become the main important water resources of industrial, urban life and agricultural irrigation. Hulu River is a tributary of the Weihe River and plays an important role in Xiji County. It locates in arid regions, and its hydrology, ecosystem are sensitive and fragile. Xiji County is short of water, serious soil erosion and environmental pollution caused by human. So the ecological environment and water resources carrying capacity is deterioration and exacerbate by the shortage of water resources, seriously affected the production and life of the local people. Therefore, how to carry out an in-depth study of the Hulu River Basin Water Resources, quickly and efficiently search for groundwater, reasonable arrangements for the use of groundwater to address the difficulty of drinking water of dryland people and livestock. the Xiji County Government and people need to resolve all the problems.
There are many elements which affect the arrangement of the groundwater, such as climate, hydrology, geology, biology, universe and mans activity and so on. And the elements are continuous changing, so it is hard to study on groundwater. And the technology of GIS have features of macroscopic, synthesized, dynamic, rapid, it offers new method and measure for groundwater resources survey and water-level simulation. The model of groundwater simulation is an effective mean and conventional method which is used to character, represent and reappear the groundwater system. It can simulate the characteristic of the groundwater system and predict the corresponding for the stress. And it also can solve groundwater resources evaluation on complex hydrogeology condition and groundwater exploitation and utilization condition. The model becomes one of the most effective and widely methods for research of groundwater system. Now, numerical model is the principal way on the research of groundwater level simulation. These groundwater model needs many hydrogeology parameters which are complex and difficult to obtain. It is difficult to operate and need very long time period to commissioning and operation. While empirical model(such as statistical model) need less to receive the satisfactory result. Therefore, through analysis groundwater level, topography, hydrometeorology, geological structure, formation lithology and so on, combination of correlation analysis,variance analysis,regression analysis, interpolation and so on, this paper discuss the primary elements and reason which affect the groundwater level in the study region, complete the simulation of Hulu River which is in the range of Xiji county, build the groundwater water forecast in the research region, and educe the conclusion as follow:
(1) The groundwater depth is affected by the precipitation in my study area. This is mainly due to the high terrain of the Hulu River basin, groundwater basic does not accept lateral recharge of groundwater in adjacent areas, and it is formed mainly by infiltration of precipitation. Thus the amount of precipitation and the size of evaporation directly control the richness of the groundwater resources.
(2) Get the regression equation of groundwater depth and diving, confined water depth in my study area.
(3) By compare,the method of polynomial regression and residual interpolation, the paper simulates the groundwater depth in the study area.
引文
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[3]王根绪,程国栋,徐中民.中国西北干旱区水资源利用及其生态环境问题(?)[J].自然资源学报,1999,14(2)：
[4]施雅风.气候变化对西北华北水资源的影响[M].山东科学技术出版社,1996.
[5]第一次全国水利普查公报[J].2013,
[6]李守波.黑河下游地下水波动带地下水时空动态GIS辅助模拟研究[D]；兰州大学,2007.
[7]朱小燕.石羊河流域地下水时空动态研究[D]；兰州大学,2008.
[8]郝华.我国城市地下水污染状况与对策研究[J].水利发展研究,2004,3(23-25.
[9]刘春蓁.我国内陆河流域水文循环与其生态功能浅析[J]_干旱气象,2005,23(3)：12-16.
[10]冯建州,魏军新.西吉县水资源现状、保住对策和措施[J].节水农业,2010,22)：15-16.
[11]张学文.宁南山区地下水资源评价[J].地下水,2000,22(3)：
[12]Darcy H. Les fontaines publiques de la ville de Dijon [M]. V. Dalmont,1856.
[13]Dupuit J. Etudes theoriques et pratiques sur le mouvement des eaux dans les canaux decouverts et a travers les terrains permeabls:avec des considerations relatives au regime des grandes eaux, au debouche a leur donner, et a la marche des alluvions dans les rivieres a fond mobile [M]. Dunod,1863.
[14]Theis C. The effect of a well on the flow of a nearby stream [J]. Transactions, American Geophysical Union,1941,22(734-738.
[15]张艳林.民勤盆地地下水时空格局分析及数据模拟研究[D]；兰州大学,2009.
[16]丁继红,周德亮,马生忠.国外地下水模拟软件的发展现状与趋势[J].勘察科学技术,2002,1(37-42.
[17]贺国平,邵景力,崔亚莉,张德强.FEFLOW在地下水流模拟方面的应用[J].成都理工大学学报(自然科学版),2003,4(356-361.
[18]Anderson M P, Woessner W W. Applied groundwater modeling:simulation of flow and advective transport [M].1992.
[19]Ewing R E. Multidisciplinary interactions in energy and environmental modeling [J]. Journal of computational and applied mathematics,1996,74(1):193-215.
[20]Wood W. A note on how to avoid spurious oscillation in the finite-element solution of the unsaturated flow equation [J]. Journal of hydrology,1996,176(1):205-218.
[21]郝治福,康绍忠.地下水系统数值模拟的研究现状和发展趋势[J].水利水电科技进展,2006,26(1)：77-81.
[22]Ghassemi F, Molson J, Falkland A, Alam K. Three-dimensional simulation of the Home Island freshwater lens:preliminary results [J]. Environmental modelling & software,1998,14(2):181-190.
[23]Porter D W, Gibbs B P, Jones W F, Huyakorn P S, Hamm L L, Flach G P. Data fusion modeling for groundwater systems [J]. Journal of Contaminant Hydrology,2000,42(2):303-335.
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