船舶压载水引发大连港赤潮风险的评价方法研究
详细信息    本馆镜像全文|  推荐本文 |  |   获取CNKI官网全文
摘要
随着国际贸易往来的不断扩大,船舶航运业作为世界贸易的重要组成部分,船舶压载水成为传播地理性隔离有害生物的主要途径。压载水取于始发港的近海岸,当地的赤潮生物极易被携入船舱当中,由于入侵生物的一些特性,船舶到达目的港后容易暴发赤潮。赤潮问题正在威胁着人类的健康和生态环境,造成巨大的经济损失。迫切需要建立合理的风险评价体系,应对面临的新挑战,减少压载水引入赤潮生物带来的危害。
     根据对大连港周围海域12个站点的调查研究,获得了该海域物理和化学因素的相关信息,并且对该海域浮游生物的种类组成和细胞数量进行了研究分析,为下面的评价工作提供了数据来源。
     本文论述了两方面(压载水引入外来生物和赤潮风险的预测)的风险评价方法及模型,对大连港内船舶压载水引发赤潮的风险进行了研究及评价。首先,根据大连港已有文献资料和调查数据,对压载水引入赤潮生物的风险进行了风险识别,从中找出可能存在的风险。经分析研究后,建立三级的风险评价指标体系(目标层、准则层和指标层),权重值由层次分析法来确定,隶属度由模糊综合评价法来确定。最后,使用评分原则,通过加权求和把船舶压载水引入赤潮生物的风险用数字表示出来,得到压载水引入赤潮生物的风险等级。
     基于大连港的生态环境因子的监测数据,本文通过应用影响渤海湾赤潮藻类生长的主导因子,建立了多元回归预测方程,运用多元回归模型对赤潮的发生进行预测,防止赤潮引发危害,减少赤潮造成的经济损失。
     本文通过对船舶压载水引入赤潮生物的风险评价和发生赤潮的预测相结合,分析了大连港内压载水引发赤潮的风险,风险等级为中度风险;赤潮预测模型的建立,为相关部门提供了预测信息。
With increasing expansion of international trade, ballast water become one of the main methods to transmit invasive pest as shipping industry plays an important role in the world trade. The ballast water is obtained from the ports of departure and its near areas and the native red tide organisms were easily carried in the ships and transported to the port of destination. Due to the invasive characteristics of these organisms, it is a possibility that they become HABs(harmful algal blooms) when the ballast water are discharged and into the new environment. The problems caused by red tide threaten human health and ecosystems and are detrimental to economic development. Thus it is urgent to establish a rational system of risk assessment to face the challenge and reduce the hazard of biological invasion.
     According to the investigation of 12 sites in the waters of Dalian port, related information about physical and chemical factors of this water were obtained and the species composition and cell abundance of plankton were discussed and analyzed, which provide the information for the following assessment.
     This paper discusses risk assessment methods and models from two aspects. Researching and assessing the risk assessment system of red tide organisms introduced by ships ballast water in Dalian port. First, risks of invasive organisms by ships ballast water were identified through the literatures and analysis of survey data in Dalian port and potential risk were found. After study and analysis, a three-layer (target layer, criteria layer and index layer) risk assessment indexes system were established, in which the weight value was determined by analytical hierarchy process and membership degree was determined by fuzzy comprehensive assessment method. Finally, the risk of introduction of invasive red tide organisms by ballast water was valued by figures through weighted sum using the principle of score and the risk levels of red tide organisms by ships' ballast water was obtained.
     By using the decisive factors which affected the abundance of phytoplankton in Bohai Bay, this work established a multi-variant regression equation based on the monitoring data of environmental factors in Dalian port. Multi-variant regression equation is essential to predict the red tides thus to prevent the potential damages and reduce the economic loss.
     By the combination of the risk assessment of red tide and the forecast of HABs, the risk assessment system of red tide organisms introduced by ships ballast water in Dalian port was analyzed and the risk level was determined to be moderate; the establishment of forecast model of red tide provides useful information for relevant departments.
引文
[1]徐晓曼.全球压载水管理项目风险评估及在我国开展情况及意义[J].交通环保,2002,4:39-41.
    [2]Mackenzie,et al.Alien invaders[J].New Scientist,1999,162:18-19.
    [3]Cohen AN,Carlton J T,Fountain M C.Introduction,Dispersal and Potential Impacts of the Green Crab Carcinus Maenas in SanFrancisco Bay,California[J].Mar.Biol,1995,122:225-237.
    [4]王丽敏,赵艳珍,李豫红,等.渤海赤潮的发生及防治[J].中国水产,2003(12):77-79.
    [5]张有份.海洋赤潮知识100问[M].海洋出版社,2000:98-99.
    [6]陆儒德.呵护蓝色家园[M].大连海事大学,2005:164.
    [7]李迪阳.船舶压载水中有害生物的管理与控制[J].海岸工程,2001,20(3):47-53.
    [8]赵淑江,朱爱意,张晓举.我国的海洋外来物种及其管理[J].海洋开发与管理,2005,3:58-66.
    [9]李士虎,吴建新,李庭古,等.赤潮的危害、成因及对策[J].水利渔业,2003,23(6):38-40.
    [10]吴春杰,杨玉峰,俞健康.浅析船舶压载水的污染及对策[J].中国水运,2007,7(4):27-28.
    [11]李博,徐炳声,陈家宽.从上海外来杂草区系剖析植物入侵的一般特征[J].生物多样性,2001,9:446-457.
    [12]丁建清.外来生物的入侵机制及其对生态安全的影响[J].中国农业导报,2002,4(4),16-20.
    [13]苏荣辉.对生物入侵研究对策的思考[J].中国科学院院刊.科技与社会,2002,5,335-338.
    [14]夏大庆,徐刚,彭涛,等.生物入侵的危害及原因分析[J].长春师范学院学报,2005,24(1):41-43.
    [15]范京安,赵学谦.农作物外来有害生物风险评估体系与方法研究[J].植物检疫,1997,11(2):75-81.
    [16]蒋青,梁忆冰,王乃杨.有害生物危险性评价指标体系的初步确立[J].1994(6):331-334.
    [17]蒋青,梁忆冰,王乃杨.有害生物危险性评价的定量分析方法研究[J].植物检疫,1995,(4):208-211.
    [18]PRA课题研究组.我国开展有害生物风险分析(PRA)研究概述[J].中国进出境动植检,1997,(2):14-16.
    [19]章正.输入小麦的有害生物风险分析[J].国家动植物检疫局工作研究,1998,(1):11-14.
    [20]蒋青.有害生物危险性评价指标体系的初步确定[J].植物检疫,1994,8(6):331.
    [21]李鸣,秦吉强.有害生物危险性综合评价方法的研究[J].植物检疫,1998,12(3):52-55.
    [22]黄杏元,汤勤.地理信息系统概论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1989.
    [23]王海扣,周保华,程遐年.地理信息系统及其在害虫治理中的应用[J].昆虫知识,1997,(6):366-370.
    [24]汤国安,陈正江,赵牡丹.ARCview地理信息系统空间分析方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.
    [25]刘书华,杨晓红,蒋文科.基于GIS的农作物病虫害防治决策支持系统[J].农业工程学报,2003.(4):147-150.
    [26]Lessard P,Norval RAI,Perry BD,et al.Geographical information systems for studying the epidemiology of cattle diseases caused by Theileria parva[J].Veterinary Record.1990,126:255-262.
    [27]Sheperd RF.Proceeding lymantriidae:a comparison of features of new and old world tussock moths[M].Washington,DC:RSDA,1988.
    [28]Sutherest RW,Maywald GF.A computerized system for matching climates in ecology[J].Agri Ecosystem Environ,1985,13:281-289.
    [29]李登科,张向军,姚小强.农业气候相似信息系统[J].中国农业气象,1994,(4):36-39.
    [30]宋红敏,张清芬,韩雪梅,等.CLIMEX:预测物种分布区的软件[J].昆虫知识,2004,(4):379-386.
    [31]MacLeodA,EvansHF,BakerRHA.2002.An analysis of pest risk from an Asian longhorn beetle(Anoplophora glabripennis) to hardwood trees in the European community.Crop Protection,21:635-645.
    [32]程俊峰,万方浩,郭建英.2006.西花蓟马在中国适生区的基于CLIMEX的GIS预测[J].中国农业科学,39(3):52-529.
    [33]马骏,万方浩,郭建英,等.豚草卷蛾在我国的生物气候相似性分析[J].中国农业科学,2003,36(10):1156-1162.
    [34]欧建,卢昌义.建立厦门地区外来生物入侵风险评价体系的思考[J].上海城市管理职业技术学院学报,2004年增刊:48-51.
    [35]张从.外来物种入侵与生物安全性评价[J].环境保护,2003(06):29-30.
    [36]张星耀.森林病理学研究的生态数学方法[M].中国林业出版社,1999:76-98.
    [37]张润杰,侯柏华.桔小实蝇传入风险的模糊综合评估[J].昆虫学报,2005,48(2):221-226.
    [38]吕全,王卫东,梁军.松材线虫在我国的潜在适生性评价[J].林业科学研究,2005,18(4):460-464
    [39]Carlton J T,Geller J B,Ecological Roulette:The global transport of nonindigenous marine organisms.Science,1993,261:78-82.
    [40]Gregory MR.Global spread of microorganisms by ship[J].Nature,2000,408:49-50.
    [41]Rigby G.Fromballast to bouillabaisse[J].Science,2000,289:241.
    [42]Donald M.Turningbackthe harmful redtide[J].Nat,1997,388:513-514.
    [43]Holmes,J MC,Minchin,D.Two exotic copepod simported into ireland with the pacific oyster Crassostrea.
    [44]M c Kinney ML,Lockwood J L.Bio tic homogenization;a few winners rep lacing many losers in the next mass extinction.T rend Ecol Evol,1999,14:451-453.
    [45]Daehler CC,Denslow JS,Ansari S,et al.A risk assess-ment system for screening out invasive pest plants from Hawaii and other Pacific Islands.[J].Conserv.Biol.2004,18:360-368.
    [46]Oyvind Endrgesen,H.L.B.,Sigrid Brynestad,Aage Bjorn Andersen,Challenges in global ballast water management.Marine Pollution Bullentin 48,2004:p.615-623.
    [47]王艳平,温俊宝.新入侵种刺桐姬小蜂在中国的危险性评估[J].昆虫知识,2006,43(3):364-367.
    [48]沈佐锐,马晓光,高灵旺,等.植保有害生物风险分析研究进展[J].中国农业大学学报,2003,8(3):51-55.
    [49]刘瑀,胡岚岚,宋成文,船舶压载水风险评估[J].大连海事大学学报,2007,9:27-33.
    [50]徐轶肖,江天久,吕颂辉.有毒赤潮甲藻塔玛亚历山大藻(香港株Ⅱ)的生长特性研究[J].热带亚热带植物学报,2005,13(1):21-24.
    [51]王朝晖,吕颂辉,陈菊芳,等.广东沿海几种赤潮生物的分类学研究[J].武汉植物学研究,1998,16(4):310-314.
    [52]张冬鹏,武宝,王干.几种赤潮藻对温度、氮、磷的响应及藻间相互作用的研究[J].暨南大学学报,2000,21(5):82-87.
    [53]Matsuoka K,Takeuchi T.Productivity of vegetative cells planozygotes and resting cysts of dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella Balech based on the field observation.Fossils,1995,59:32-46.
    [54]顾海峰,蓝东兆,方琦,等.我国东南沿海亚历山大藻休眠孢囊的分布和萌发研究[J].应用生态学报,2003,14(7):1147-1150.
    [55]Harrison,P.J.,M.H.Hu,Yang,Y.P.,Lu,X.,1990.Phosphate limitation in estuarine and coastal waters of China.J.Exp.Biol.Ecol.140,79-87.
    [56]黄长江,齐雨藻,林小涛,等.南海大鹏湾夜光藻种群生态及其赤潮成因分析[J].海洋与湖沼,28(3):245-255.
    [57]彭靖,刘卓宝,张胜年.赤潮现象及其对人体健康的危害[J].上海预防医学杂志,2000,12(9):403-404.
    [58]周成旭,吴玉霖.甲藻赤潮及其毒素的产生机制及夜光藻氮代谢途径[J].海洋与湖沼,1999,30(4):454-459.
    [59]黄长江,齐雨藻,杞桑,等.大鹏湾夜光藻种群的季节变化和分布特征[J].海洋与湖沼,1996,27(5):494-498.
    [60]http://www.coi.gov.cn/hyzh/ccao/redtide
    [61]http://www.issg.org/database/species/ecology.asp
    [62]McMinn A,HallegraeffGM,Thomson P,et al.Cyst andradionucleotide evidence for the recent introduction of the toxic dinoflagellate Gymnodinium catenatum into Tasmanian waters.Mar Eco Prog Set,1997,161:165-172
    [63]辜小莲,齐雨藻,陈菊芳,等.大亚湾水域原甲藻调查与鉴定[J],热带亚热带植物学报,2002,10(4):335-339.
    [64]胡晗华,石岩峻,丛威,等.微小原甲藻的生长及其对锌限制的响应[J].应用生态学报,2003,14(7):1140-1142.
    [65]林祖享,梁舜华.探讨运用多元回归分析预报赤潮[J],海洋环境科学,2002,21(3):1-4.
    [66]吴京洪,杨秀环,唐宝英,等.人工神经网路预报浮游植物生长趋势的研究[J].中山大学学报:自然科学版,2000,39(6):54-58.
    [67]Tamburri,M N,Wasson K,Matsuda M.Ballast water deoxygenation can prevent aquatic introduction while reducing ship corrosion[J].Biological Conservation,2002,103:331-341.
    [68]白希尧,白敏冬,周晓见,等.羟基及其药剂制取方法研究[J].化工时刊,2002,16(4):1-6.
    [69]白希尧,白敏冬,杨波,等.外来有害生物入侵性传播灾害和治理方法研究[J].自然杂志,2002.24(4):223-226.
    [70]Flemming,H C.Biofouling in water treatment[A].In:Flemming,H C,Geesey,G G..Biofouling and biocorrosion in industrial water systems[C].Berlin:SpringerVerlag,1991.47-80.
    [71]Hallegraeff G M,Bolch C J,Oshima Y.SPeeies of the toxic dinoflagellate genus Alexandrium in southeastern Australian waters.Boraniea Marina,1991(34):575-587.
    [72]黄小平,黄良民.近海赤潮发生与环境条件之间的关系[J].海洋环境科学,2002,21(4):63-69.
    [73]李夜光,李中奎,耿亚红.富营养化水体中N、P浓度对浮游植物生长繁殖速率和生物量的影响[J].生态学报,2006,26(2):317-325.
    [74]Yamamoto T.Effects of winds,tides and river water runoff on the formation and Disappearance of the Alexandrium tamarense bloom in Hiroshima Bay,Ja Pan.Harmful Algae,2002(1):301-312.

© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号

地址:北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编:100083

电话:办公室:(+86 10)66554848;文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新:66554700