行人过街交通行为分析建模
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摘要
面对化石能源逐渐枯竭,全球气候变暖,生态环境持续恶化,很多国家提出了环保、绿色低碳的可持续发展理念。越来越多的城市提倡步行、自行车出行以及“自行车+公交+步行”等可持续交通发展模式,尤其是步行、自行车等慢行交通出行方式再次受到推崇。过去几十年,为了适应社会经济快速发展的需求,我国的城市一直本着“以车为本”的理念,在解决交通问题时主要考虑的是机动车的运行效率和安全等,处处以车辆通行优先,以大量挤占和牺牲行人、自行车出行为代价,“肆意”侵占行人和非机动车出行的利益,严重威胁到行人和非机动车出行者的安全。随着“以人为本”的科学发展理念逐步深入人心,城市行人交通已经不再被忽略,行人出行的安全、效率、舒适度等都是处理城市交通问题的重要考虑因素。
     在城市交通中,过街行人交通是城市交通中一种常见的交通现象。过街行人与机动车流的冲突是造成城市交通效率下降和危险性上升的重要原因。当机动车在通行过程中受到行人过街干扰时,其行为会根据研究地点的不同而做出相应的反应变化,同样,当行人在过街过程中受到机动车通行的干扰时,行人往往会受到其心理因素及道路因素等影响而做出与交通环境相适应的行为决策。对行人及机动车交通行为进行合理的分析,可为道路通行效率及道路通行安全评价等问题的解决提供理论基础。此外,在对交叉口及路段实施交通管制时,应结合管制位置处的行人及机动车的行为特点,有针对性的提出相应的控制方法,进而提升该路段或交叉口的通行效率及过街安全性。由此可知,对行人过街情况下人与车交通行为的研究具有一定的现实意义。
     本学位论文对过街行人影响下的交通行为及相关控制方法进行了深入研究,主要包括以下四方面:
     (1)行人过街特性分析
     总结分析了行人过街的行为特性,在此基础上,对行人过街轨迹特性进行分析。主要利用视频采集方法对行人过街过程中的位置及速度的变化进行数据采集,以此为基础,计算了行人在过街中各位置的平均步速。此外,利用“混合交通运动轨迹跟踪分析软件”对行人过街轨迹进行采集,并对调查区域进行坐标标定,得到行人过街时空轨迹曲线图,以反映行人过街过程中位置及速度的变化情况。
     通过对位置及速度的变化情况分析,得到行人过街轨迹的影响因素。将不同性质的影响因素分类,并利用社会力基础理论对不同影响因素产生的虚拟作用力进行建模,得到多个因素的虚拟力模型。将不同影响因素产生的虚拟力进行合成,最终得到行人过街过程中综合因素产生的虚拟合力模型。
     (2)考虑对向行人干扰的行人过街效率分析
     对行人过街方式进行了阐述,将行人过街行为划分为一次过街和二次过街两种方式,并对不同过街方式特点进行分析。基于此,将常用的行人过街效率计算方法分为行人延误及通行能力两类,通过比较两类方法的特点,选择行人人均延误作为行人过街效率指标进行进一步分析。针对过街双向行人之间互相干扰的特点,以流体力学理论为基础,建立对向行人干扰情况下行人过街延误模型。此外,针对行人二次过街的复杂特性,将行人二次过街划分为两个阶段,按照行人到达情况的不同,将行人过街分为六种情况,并在考虑对向行人干扰以及行人消散延误基础上,建立不同情况下行人过街延误模型,并对延误模型进行参数标定。
     (3)考虑行人和机动车违章的行人过街效益分析
     对行人过街行为影响下的行人与机动车违章行为影响因素进行分析,并从行人及机动车违章行为角度出发,通过交通调查得到机动车违章相关数据,利用Logistic方法对机动车违章影响因素进行建模,提取影响机动车违章行为的主要参数,并通过Hosmer and Lemeshow指标对模型进行检验,检验结果证明该模型可较为准确反映机动车的违章行为。此外,分别针对行人违章及机动车违章两种情况,并考虑到行人间的相互干扰情况,利用间隙理论建立相应的效率及安全指标模型。最后,利用乘法合成法,将不同的指标进行合并,建立既考虑效率又考虑安全的综合效益指标,并绘制出不同违章率下的综合效益指标曲线图。
     (4)单位进出口路段的行人-机动车信号控制
     本章首先对城市道路一类特殊路段——单位进出口路段的交通特性进行了分析,重点研究了行人流与各向机动车流的冲突特性。针对该类路段人-车冲突特性,提出了进入单位左转车流-行人流交通控制方法,利用概率论和间隙理论建立了左转车影响下的直行车延误模型,并在此基础上提出了两种控制方案。通过理论推导和仿真实例验证,对比分析了两方案在不同条件下的适用性。此外,深入分析在不同控制策略下过街行人与右转驶入单位进出口机动车流冲突特性,以此为基础,总结了右转机动车流的信号控制条件,并进一步考虑机动车违章及行人互扰等行为,建立了右转机动车不同违章率下的行人人均延误模型,由此确定了单位进出口处右转机动车信号设置条件。
Faced with the depletion of fossil energy, global warming and worse environment,many national governments point out the concept of green environmental and sustainabledevelopment. The idea directly impacts the development of urban traffic. More and morecities encourage pedestrian traffic, bicycle traffic, and a model of sustainabledevelopment of urban traffic: walk system, public traffic system and bicylesystem,walking and bicycle of the slow traffic receive the esteem again.
     Over the past few decades, for adapting economy construction and social rapiddevelopment need, the efficiency and safey of vehicle operating are the most importantfactors when trying to solve urban traffic problems, in our cities. Pedestrians and cyclistshave to give priority to vehicles anywhere or anytime. And their benefits are damaged byvehicles. Their personal safety is under serious threat when interfering with vehicles. Theconcept of people-oriented is slowly filtering into people's minds, and the benefits andpersonal safety of pedestrians and cyclists have no longer been ignored, and have becomeimportant factors to solve traffic problem now.
     Pedestrian crossing behaviour is the most common phenomena in urban traiffic. Thetraffic conflict condition between vehicle and pedestrian is one of the most importantfactors leading to operation efficiency dropping and traffic accidents rising. Under themutual interference between pedestrians and vehicles, they all will take appropriateactions to adapt traffic conditions. The research on traffic characteristics of vehicles andpedestrians with pedestrians crossing can provides the theory basis for efficiency andsafey evaluation of pedestrian and vehicle,.In addition, it is also the important referenceof intersection signal control and management strategies, furthermore, promotes theurban traffic efficiency and safey. For all these reasons,this research is of great practicalsignificance.
     In this dissertation, we study deeply into the traffic characteristics of vehicles andpedestrians when pedestrians cross street. It mainly includes four aspects:
     (1) Pedestrians traffic characteristics with pedestrian crossing
     Based on the summary and analysis of the pedestrian traffic characteristics with pedestrian crossing, the paper analyzed the trajectory characteristics of pedestriancrossing. Video collection method was used to collect data, including the position andvelocity of pedestrian. Utilizing this coordinate point of pedestrian, we could obtain thepedestrian position and speed when crossing treet. Then the trajectory tracking analysissoftware of mixed traffic was used to generate the locus diagrams which can reflect thedetail spatial-temporal change of pedestrian.
     Based on the analysis on the position and speed of pedestrians, the influencingfactors on pedestrian trajectory of pedestrian were obtained. In addition, the factors wereclassified by their properties, and combining social force theory, the paper proposedseveral virtual force models of pedestrians crossing. At last, all this virtual forces werecomposed to a comprehensive virtual force model.
     (2) Efficiency Analysis of pedestrian crossing considering the influence ofinterference among bidirectional pedestrians
     The paper stated the modes of crossing, and the modes can differentiate to oncecrossing street and twice crossing street, and this two patterns have their owndistinguishing features. The pedestrian crossing delay and crossing capacity arecommonly used indexs. In comparison with the above two indexs, the pedestriancrossing delay was chosen to analyze further. Considering the interference amongbidirectional pedestrians, the paper used hydrodynamic theory to build the model ofpedestrian crossing delay under mutual interference among pedestrians. In addition,twice crossing street is split into two main stages and six kinds of situations were putforward based on the arrival distribution and crossing characteristic of pedestrians. Thepaper established all this six models of pedestrian crossing delay in every situation andcalibrated the parameters of the proposed models
     (3) Analysis the benefit of pedestrian crossing considering influence of vehicle andpedestrian peccancy
     The paper analyzed the influencing factors of vehicle and pedestrian peccancy whenpedestrians cross the street. then investigated the violations of vehicle and pedestrian.Based on the survey data, analyzed the influencing factors and build the models by usinglogistic regression. The proposed models have been proved to be a successful modewhich reflectting the real situation of vehicle and pedestrian peccancy. In addition,aiming at the vehicle peccancy and pedestrians violating traffic law, the paper used gaptheory to establish efficiency and safety models of pedestrian. At last, the indexes ofefficiency and safety are combined to build an comprehensive benefit index to make a quantitative evaluation on pedestrians crossing street based on multiplication synthesislaw.
     (4) Signal control of pedestrian-vehicle in road section with exit
     The paper make deep analysis of conflict characteristics between pedestrians andvehicles in road section with exit. By using probability theory and clearance theory buildthe delay model of the going-straight vehicle interfered with by left-turning vehicle,moreover, proposed the corresponding traffic control method of pedestrian andleft-turning vehicle. Based on this, two control schemes were analyzed comparativelythrough theoretical analysis and simulation examples. In addition, the paper also deeplyanalyzed the conflict characteristics between pedestrians and right-turning vehicle underdifferent control schemes. Based on this, the paper have maked a summary and analysisof the signal control condition of right-turning vehicle. Moreover, considering the vehiclepeccancy and mutual interference among pedestrians, the paper also proposed an averagepedestrian delay model under dfferent rates of violate, finally determined the signalcontrol condition of right-turning vehicle in road section with exit.
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