保险资金运用效率实证研究
详细信息    本馆镜像全文|  推荐本文 |  |   获取CNKI官网全文
摘要
近几年,我国保险投资收益在保险利润收入中的地位不断攀升,超越了承保利润,成为其收入的主要来源。但是我国保险资金运用起步较晚,资金运用水平仅达到西方发达国家20世纪七八十年代的状态,2010年以来,我国保险投资收益在逐年下降,且低于同期的五年期定期存款利率。保险资金运用的低效率正逐步突显出来,长此以往,将会影响到保险公司的偿付能力和保险业的健康发展,甚至整个经济的健康运行。鉴于此,本文根据保险资金运用两阶段的特殊性,从广义的角度对我国保险资金运用效率进行研究,分析低效率的特点和影响效率的因素,有针对性地对效率进行改进。
     本文主要做了三个方面的研究:
     一是通过对现有评价方法的比较,从广义的保险资金运用角度,根据现有方法的不足,对资源型两阶段DEA模型进行改进,并利用主成分分析法和改进的模型对保险资金运用效率进行实证分析,结果显示:我国保险资金运用整体效率水平较低,且处于逐年下降的状态;与人身险相比,财产险效率较低;效率非有效的根源来自两子阶段的低效率。
     二是通过对回归模型的比较,根据效率取值的特点,选取Tobit模型对影响保险资金运用效率因素进行实证分析,研究结果发现:公司成立时间、营销员占比、资产管理专业化和短期投资占比对保险资金运用效率影响为正,除短期投资占比外,其它因素均显著。
     三是从资金收集和资金运用两个阶段对效率改进策略进行研究。在资金收集阶段:通过聚类分析方法对目标客户进行准确定位,实证研究发现:不同客户群对保险产品的需求空间不同,可以实行有针对性的分类销售,缩短促成时间,提高工作效率;通过引入客户需求、同业竞争和替代产品三大外部因素来构建改进的保险产品定价模型,并进行实证分析,结果显示:改进的模型可实现差异化定价,其定价结果较传统模型定价结果更符合实际需求。差异化定价可提高公司产品竞争力,增加客户关注率,提升公司知名度,扩大业务收入。在资金运作阶段:通过采用改进的马可维茨模型,对2008-2012年中国人寿投资组合结构进行研究,发现中国人寿的投资组合达到了最优配置比例;通过将面板数据模型引入到逆DEA模型中,构建改进的逆DEA模型,以2006-2012年我国46家保险公司为样本,对最优投资收益率进行预测,结果显示:效率值越低,预测值与实际值的偏离越大。资金运作阶段的两种策略,既可以影响保险资金运作阶段效率,也可以通过提高保险投资收益来影响保险产品定价,从而间接改进保险资金收集阶段效率。
In recent years, China's insurance investment income is becoming the main source of the insuranceincome,the position of which is rising in the insurance profits income and beyond the underwriting profit.But the use of insurance funds start lately in China,which only reached the level of the seventies and eightiesof the20th century in the state of Western developed countries, since2010, our insurance investment incomehas decreased year by year,and is lower than the five-year time deposit rate for the same period. Theinefficient of the insurance funds utilization is gradually stand out, which will affect the solvency of theinsurance company and the healthy development of the insurance industry at the long run, even the healthyoperation of the economy. In view of this, based on a two-stage specificity of insurance funds, this paper willstudy the efficiency of the use of insurance funds from a broader perspective,analyze the characteristics oflow efficiency and factors affecting efficiency, improve efficiency targetedly.
     This paper studies mainly three aspects:
     First, by comparing with the existing evaluation methods, this paper improves the resource-basedtwo-stage model from a broad angle of the insurance funds utilization,which base on the deficiencies of theexisting methods, analyzes the efficiency of insurance funds utilization from the empirical perspective useingthe principal component analysis and improved models, the reasults shows that: the overall efficiency ofinsurance funds utilization is low and keep in a declining state year by year, the efficiency of the lifeinsurance is higher than the efficiency of the property insurance, the root of the inefficiency is come from thetwo sub-phases.
     Second, by comparing the regression model, this paper selects the Tobit model which bases on thecharacteristics of the efficiency values. analyzes the factors affecting the efficiency from the empiricalperspective, the reasults shows it is position on the impact of Established、the ratio of marketers、short-terminvestments Ratio and the asset management specialization,sometimes, except for short-term investmentsratio, other factors were significant.
     Third, this paper studies the strategy to improve the efficiency from the funds collected and funds usedphase. In funds collected phase: the target customers accurately located by cluster analysis method, theempirical findings: the different customer demand differently for insurance products, the targeted segmentsales can be implemented, which will shorten the time to promote and make efficiency improve; theimproved insurance product pricing models is built by introducing three major external factors includingcustomer demand, competition and alternative products, the empirical finding shows:the improved pricingmodel can make differential pricing achieved,which is more consistent with actuality. Differential pricingcan improve the competitiveness of our products, which will increase the rate of customer focus, enhance thecompany's reputation and improve the efficiency of the fund collection phase. In funds used stage: theportfolio structure of China Life Insurance is studied using the improved Markowitz mode during the year of2008-2012, the result shows that China Life Insurance's investment portfolio achieves the optimal allocationratio; the improved inverse DEA model is built by introding the panel data model into inverse DEA model,ittake46insurance companies as samples to predict the optimal investment yield during2006to2012, theresults show: the lower the value,the farthe deviate from the predicted return rate. The efficiency of theinsurance fund collection phase and the efficiency of the insurance fund used phase can be influenced by twostrategy in the insurance fund used phase.
引文
1赵文龙.保险公司透明度评价及其监管对策研究[D].重庆大学公共管理学院,2012(5).
    2中国精算师协会组编.保险法及相关法规.中国财政经济出版社,2010(11):239.
    3中国精算师协会组编.保险法及相关法规.中国财政经济出版社,2010(11):243-244.
    4中国精算师协会组编.中华人民共和国保险法.中国财政经济出版社,2010(11):244
    5张启文.保险资金运用问题研究[D].东北农业大学,2003(5):12~13.
    6夏征农.辞海[M].上海辞书出版社,1999:4175.
    7马克思.马克思恩格斯全集网.人民出版社,1979.
    8约翰·伊特韦尔等编.新帕尔格雷夫经济学大词典(二)[M].经济科学出版社,1992:95.
    9萨缪尔森.经济学[M].中国发展出版社,1992.
    10杰弗瑞:A杰里,菲利普·J.瑞尼,王根蓓译.高级微观经济理论[M].上海财经大学出版社,2002.
    11樊纲等.公有制宏观经济理论大纲[M].上海:上海人民出版社,1995.
    12宋威.金融数学模型.广州:华南理工大学出版社,1999:54~131.
    13魏权龄.评价相对有效性的数据包络分析模型—DEA和网络DEA.中国人民大学出版社,2012(8):40.
    [1]Andrew M,Yuengert.The measurement of efficiency in life insurance:Estimates of a mixed normal一gamma error model.Joural of Banking and Finance,1993(17).
    [2] Banker R D, Chames A, Cooper W. Some models for estimating technical and scale Inefficienciesin DEA. Management Seienee,1984(3).
    [3] Babbel,David F.and Arthur B.Hogan.Incentive conflicts and Portfolio Choice in the insuranceindustry. Joumalof Risk and Insuranee,1992(4).
    [4]Bhattacharya,A.,Lovell,C.A.K.Sahay,P. The impact of liberalization on the Productive efficieney ofIndian commercial banks[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1997,98:332~345.
    [5]Carehart M. On persistenee in mutual fund performanee [J].Journal of Finanee,1997,5(2):73~74.
    [6]Charnes A, Cooper.Sensitivity and stability analysis in DEA[J].Annals of OperationsRes,1985,(2):17~18.
    [7]Cummins J.D.and M.A.Weiss.Measuring Cost Efficiency in the Property-Liability InsuranceIndustry.Journal of Banking and Finance,1993.
    [8]Cummins J.D&Mary A.Weiss.Analyzing Firm Performance in the Insurance Industry UsingFrontier Efficiency Methods.Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers98-22.Wharton SchoolCenter for Financial Institutions,University of Pennsylvania,1998.
    [9]Cummins,J.David and Mary A.Weiss.Analyzing Firm Performance in the Insurance Industry UsingFrontier Efficiency and Productivity Methods. G.Dionneed.Handbook of Insurance.Boston:KluwerAcademic Publishers,2000.
    [10]Cummins J.D and M.A.Weiss,Analyzing Firm Performance in the insurance Industry UsingFrontier Efficiency and Productivity Methods,Handbook of Insurance,Kluwer AcademicPublishers,2001.
    [11] Cummins J.D. M.A.Weiss,and Hongmin Zi.Organizational Form and Efficiency:An Analysis ofStock and Mutual Property-Liability Insurers.Management Science,1999(45).
    [12] Cummins J.D.Giuseppe Turchetti,M.A.Weiss.Productivity and Technical Efficiency ItalianInsurance Industry.Working paper,Wharton Financial Institutions Center,University ofPennsylvania.,1996.
    [13]Cummins J.D.,S.Tennyson and M.A.Weiss.Efficiency,Scale Economies,and Consolidation in theU.S.Life Insurance Industry.Journal of Banking and Finance,1998.
    [14] Cummins J.D and Hongmin Zi.Measuring Cost Efficiency in the U.S.LifeInsuranceIndustry:Econometric and Mathematical Programming Approaches.The WorkingPaper,The WhartonSchool of the University of Pennsylvania,Hong-Ik University,Korea,1997.
    [15]Cummins,J.D.and H.Zi.Comparison of Frontier Efficiency Methods:An Application to the U.S.LifeInsurance Industry.Journal of Productivity Analysis,1997(10).
    [16]Cummins J.D.and Hongmin Zi.Measuring Economic Efficiency of the US LifeInsurance Industry:Econometric and Mathematical Programming Techniques. Journal ofProductivityAnalysis,1998.
    [17]Cummins,J.David and Hongmin Zi.Comparison of Frontier Efficiency Methods An Application tothe U.S.Life Insurance Industry.Journal of Productivity Analysis,1998(10).
    [18] Cummins J.D and Maria Rubio-Misas.Deregulation,Consolidation and Efficiency:Evidence Fromthe Spanish Insurance Industry.The Working paper,the Wharton School of the University ofPennsylvania,2002(1).
    [19] Farrell MJ.The measurement of Productive effieieney. Jounal of the Royal StatisticalSoeiety,1957
    [20]Fei-ching Wang, Wei-ting Hung and Jui-kou Shang. Measuring Pure Managerial Efficiency ofInternational Tourist Hotels in Taiwan. The Service Industries Journal,2006,26(1):59~71.
    [21]Frost A.J.Implications of modert Portfolio theory for Lift Assurance Companies[J].Joumal of theInstitute of Actuaries: Student’S Seciety,1983,26:47-68.
    [21]G. Debreu. The Coefficient of Resource Utilization. Economitrica,1951,19(3):273~292.
    [22] Gardner,L.,and M.Grace.Cost Differences Between Mutual and Stock Life InsuranceCompanies.Working paper,Center for Risk Management and Insurance Research,College of BusinessAdministration,Georgia State University,Atlanta,GA,1997.
    [23] Grinblatt M, Titman. Mutual Fund Performanee: An Analysis of Quarterly Portfolio·Holdings[J].Journal of Business,1989,10(6):32~34.
    [24] Guo Jingfix, Yang Dell.An application of the Extension of DEA for EfficiencyMeasurement[C].Proceedings of97International Conference on Management Science&Egineering,1997
    [25] Hwang S.N. and Kao T.L.,MeasuringManagerial Efficiency in Non-Life Insurance Companies:An Application of Two-Stage Data Envelopment Analysis Technique,International Journal ofManagement,2006(23).
    [26]H. O. Fried, C. A. K. Lovell, P. V. Eeckaut. Evaluating the Performance of US Credit Unions.Journal of Banking and Finance,1993,(17):251~265.
    [27]H. O. Fried, P. Schemidt and S. Yaisawarng. Incorporating the Operating Environment into aNonparametric Measure of Technical Efficiency.Journal of Productivity Analysis,1999,(12):249~267.
    [28]H. O. Fried, C. A. K. Lovell, and P. Schemidt. Accounting for Environmental Effects andStatistical Noise in Data Envelopment Analysis. Journal of Productivity Analysis,2002,(17):157~174.
    [29] Kao C. and Shiuh-Nan Hwang.Efficiency Development in Two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis:An Application to Non-Life Insurance Companies in Taiwan.European Journal of OperationalResearch,2008(185).
    [30]Krous C.G. Portfolio Balancing Corporate Assets and Liabilities with Special Application toInsurance Management[J].The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,1970,5:77~105.
    [31]Kahane Y.,D.Nye.A Portfolio Approach to the Property Liability Insurance Industry[J].JournalRisk and Insurance,1975,42:579~598.
    [32]Landsman,Sherris.Riskmeasuresandinsurancepremiumprinciples.MathematiesandEeonomies,2001(29).
    [33]Lambert E.W,A.E.Hoffiander.Impact of New Multiple Line Underwriting on Investment Portfolioof Property-Liability Insurers[J].Journal of Risk andInsurance,1966,33:209~223.
    [34]Moridaira S,&Urrtia J.L.with R.C.The Equilibrum Insurance Price and Underwriting Return in aCapital Market Setting[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,1992,59(2):291~300.
    [35]Pererson,J.A.The dependence of Investment Policy on the Liabilities of a LiftOffice[Z].Transactions ofthe22nd Intemational Congress ofActuaries in Sydnay,1984,15:201~215.
    [36]Merton R.C.An Analytic Derivation ofthe Cost of Deposit Insurance and LoanGuarantees.Journal ofBanking and Finance1997(1):3-11.
    [37] Rai,A.Cost efficiency of international insurance firms. Journal of Financial ServicesResearch,1996
    [32]R.Fare,S.GrosskoPf, M.Norris, Z.Zhang.Produetivity Growth,Technieal Change andEffieieney Change in Industrialized Countries[J].American Economic Review,1994,84(1):66-83.
    [38]R. D. Banker, R. C. Morey. Efficiency Analysis for Exogenously Fixed inputs and Outputs.Operations Research,1986,(34):513-21.
    [39] R. D. Banker, R. C. Morey. The Use of Categorical Variables in Data Envelopment Analysis.Management Science,1986,(32):1613-1627.
    [35]S. Y. Zhuang, Y. J. Feng. An Evaluation of Management Performance about Company CoreCompetence Based on DEA. Journal of Systems Science and Information,2005,3(2):363-370.
    [40]Weiss, M.A.Analysis of produetivity at the Firm Level:An Application to Life Insurers.Joural ofRisk and Insurance,1986(53).
    [41]Weiss,M.A.Productivity Growth and Regulation of P/L Insurance:1980-1984.Joumal ofProductivity Analysis,1990(2).
    [42]Yang,Zijiang. A Two-stage DEA Model to Evaluate the overallPerformance of Canadian Life andHealth Insurance ComPanies. Mathematical andComPuter Modeling,2006(43).
    [43]安实,张炀,陈剑平.基于差异系数σ/μ的人寿保险公司最优投资组合方法.[J]管理工程学报,2003(3).
    [44]吴九红,曾开华,赵旭.保险资金运用安全与效率的模型分析[J]财政金融,2003(6).
    [45]张启文.保险资金运用问题研究[D].东北农业大学,2003.
    [46]毛小纶,李从珠.养老保险基金投资的目标规划模型[J].数理统计与管理,2004(3).
    [47]荣喜民,李楠.保险基金的最优投资研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2004(10).
    [48]陈学华,韩兆洲,唐珂.基于VaR和RAROC的保险基金最优投资研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006(4).
    [49]张传良.我国保险资金境外运用效率问题研究[J].海南金融,2007(11).
    [50]曾素芬.基于VaR模型的保险投资风险度量与绩效评价[J].江西财经大学学报,2009(5).
    [51]胡颖,李集城.我国养老保险基金投融资效率实证研[J].金融与经济,2010(11).
    [52]樊锐.保险资金的证券投资绩效分析[J].保险研究,2011(6).
    [53]陈蕾.保险资金风险度量与绩效评价——基于收益率映射估值法的VaR模型[J].中国外资,2011(16).
    [54]周中.我国保险业投资效率研究[D].复旦大学,2009.
    [55]黄薇.中国保险机构资金运用效率研究:基于资源型两阶段DEA模型[J].经济研究,2009(8).
    [56]黄薇,基于SFA方法对中国保险机构效率的实证研究,南开经济研究,2006(5).
    [57]周先平,谭本艳.中日保险资金运用效率的对比研究[J].中南财经政法大学研究生学报,2009(1).
    [58]周先平,商业银行混业经营效率的全球比较研究-基于三阶段DEA的分析[J],金融教学与研究,2009(4).
    [59]李鹏.我国保险公司资金运用效率研究[D].西北大学,2011.
    [60]毕功兵,梁樑,杨锋.资源约束型两阶段生产系统的DEA效率评价模型[J].中国管理科学,2009,17(2).
    [61]陈凯华,官建成.共享投入型关联两阶段生产系统的网络DEA效率测度与分解[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011(7)
    [62]陈干,彭钟仪.基于单因素评价模型及T-M模型的基金绩效评价[J].东方企业文化,2011(10).
    [63]庄新田,姜硕,朱俊.基于均值-C VaR模型的企业年金资产配置[J].管理学报,2009,6(11).
    [64]王秋娜.基于三阶段DEA方法的我国商业银行效率研究[D].哈尔滨工业大学,2008.
    [65]徐蕊.基于三阶段DEA方法我国保险业效率的实证研究[D],东北大学,2009.
    [66]许星剑.全国社会保障基金股票投资组合绩效评价及实证研究[D].哈尔滨工业大学,2008.
    [67]金剑.生产率增长测算方法的系统研究[D].东北财经大学,2007.
    [68]周世军.我国保险资金运用及评价研究[D].东北大学,2005.
    [69]赵明静.我国保险资金资本市场投资的绩效分析[D].兰州商学院,2011.
    [70]常嵘.我国开放式基金动态资产配置能力研究——基于H-M模型及其扩展的检验[J].兰州商学院学报,2010(6).
    [71]汪宏程.我国开放式基金资产动态配置能力研究——基于T-M模型和信息比率的实证分析[J].华北金融,2011(9).
    [72]高明,解百臣.我国寿险企业生产效率变动的Malmquist指数分析[J].科技管理研究,2010(9).
    [73]徐士达.我国寿险投资评价方法与实证研究[D].暨南大学,2007.
    [74]沈维涛,黄兴孪.我国证券投资基金业绩的实证研究与评价[J].经济研究,2001(9).
    [75]田浩,李随成.信息比率及其在基金绩效评价中的应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2004(10).
    [76]欧金仓.中国保险业的生产效率和投资效率及其影响因素分析[D].山东大学,2007.
    [77]沈琳.中国保险资金投资运用的研究[D].苏州大学,2006.
    [78]陈胜可,丁维岱.中国股票型开放式基金业绩的实证分析[J].山东行政学院山东省经济管理干部学院学报,2008(3).
    [79]杜子平,何辉,张勇.中国开放式基金全要素生产率实证分析[J].科技管理研究,2011(10).
    [80]蒋瑛琨.中国证券投资基金业绩评价研究[D].吉林大学,2005.
    [81]孟建民.建立科学规范的企业效绩评价体系的基本思路.经济研究参考,1999(8).
    [82]周德俊,程勇.论产险公司绩效的综合评价.保险研究,2000(6).
    [83]周艳.基于灰色系统理论的我国寿险公司绩效评估研究[D].湖南大学,2007.
    [84]胡永红.基于因子分析的我国人寿保险公司竞争力研究[D].首都经济贸易大学,2007.
    [85]孔东民.通货膨胀阻碍了金融发展与经济增长吗?—基于一个门槛回归模的新检验[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007(10).
    [86]王晓霞.我国财产保险公司人力资本对技术效率影响的门限效应研究[D].山东大学,2009(4).
    [87]文芳.保险资金运用效率提高的路径依赖[J].华南金融研究,2004(2).
    [88]刘春杰,刘熙群.关于保险资金运用影响因素的考察[J].浙江大学学报.1998(12).
    [89]李晓宇,田新民.基于两阶段关联CCR模型的我国房地产业效率研究[J].商业时代,2013(1).
    [90]田新民,李晓宇.从微观视角分析我国保险业经营效率[J].经济与管理研究,2013(4).
    [91]李晓宇,田新民.电子商务企业经营效率研究[J].商业时代,2013(5).
    [92]孙青霞,杜月红.借鉴国外保险资金运用经验提高我国保险资金运用效益[J].金融研究,2002(4).
    [93]郑静宜.社保基金投资效率研究[D].厦门大学,2009(4).
    [94]吴迁.我国保险资金运用当议[J].保险研究,2008(1).
    [95]王绪瑾.中外保险投资比较研究[J].保险研究,2000(11).
    [96]孟昭亿.保险资金运用国际比较[M].北京,中国金融出版社,2005.
    [97]石磊.发达国家保险资金运用的比较研究[J].金融与保险,2008(3).
    [98]李斌.寿险公司资金运用研究[D].江苏大学,2008(11).
    [99]郭金龙,胡宏兵.我国保险资金运用现状、问题及策略研究[J].保险研究,2009(1).
    [100]胡坤.保险市场开放后保险投资的安全与效率[J].保险研究,1999(2).
    [101]李晓渝,王李林,李萍.国内保险资金运用新渠道探析[J].金融论坛,2004(21).
    [102]刘树枫.保险资金运用的对策建议[J].统计与决策,2003(5).
    [103]刘新立.我国保险资金运用渠道的拓宽[J].财经研究,2004(9).
    [104]罗洪浪,王洗尘,田中甲.基于DEA的封闭式基金业绩评价[J].中国管理科学,2003(5).
    [105]骆永民.人力资本投资效率的经济增长效应研究一基于四种面板数据回归模型的实证分析[J].当代经济科学,2020(21).
    [106]李亚敏.我国保险资金运用问题研究一基于资本市场的收益与风险分析[D].复旦大学,2007
    [107]吕忠伟.保险公司效率的测算研究[J].证券与保险,2003(4).
    [108]张青枝.提高保险资金运用效果的探析[J].经济问题,2005(3).
    [109]周世军.保险资金运用及评价[D].东华大学,2005.
    [110]王瑜.证券类资金运用风险分析[D].湖南大学,2009.
    [111]傅莉莉.保险资金运用中的风险度量-VaR模型分析[J].市场论坛,2007(11).
    [112]李群峰.动态面板数据模型的GMM估计及其应用[J].统计与决策,2010(16).
    [113]龙莹,张世银.动态面板数据模型的理论和应用研究综述[J].科技与管理,2010(2).
    [114]王津港.动态面板数据模型估计及其内生结构突变检验理论与应用[D].华中科技大学,2009
    [115]苏为华.多指标综合评价理论与方法问题研究[D].厦门大学,2000.
    [116]刘磊.基于DEA方法的保险资金投资效率分析[D].上海师范大学,2012.
    [117]张本照,杜斌.基于M2测度值的我国开放式基金绩效实证研究[J].经济研究导刊,2008(16).
    [118]张之,杨正宇,卢小曼.基于M2指数的我国股票型开放式基金的投资绩效研究[J].现代经济信息,2010(11).
    [119]朱锦超,朱鸽.基于M2指数的中国行业型开放式基金的投资绩效研究[J].经济研究导刊,2010(16).
    [120]舒琳.基于M2指数的中国开放式基金业绩的实证研究[J].中国证券期货,2010(4).
    [121]林健.基于SFA方法的中国寿险公司成本效率和利润效率实证研究[D].浙江工商大学,2011.
    [122]赵宝钗,刘栋.基于VAR的RAROC绩效分析文献综述[J].现代商贸工业,2010(2).

© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号

地址:北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编:100083

电话:办公室:(+86 10)66554848;文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新:66554700