基于道路管理功能的行人违章穿越行为特性分析与仿真
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摘要
作为城市交通中一种重要出行方式,步行交通与人类活动密切相关。我国城市交通典型特征是混合交通,道路时空资源有限,慢行交通和快速交通之间的矛盾日益加深。且城市交通实践中存在着“重机动车交通而轻步行交通”的思想,步行交通规划落后,行人设施管理、规划不完善,导致大量行人交通违章穿越,交通事故时有发生,严重影响城市交通系统运行效率。国内对行人交通研究多集中于行人交通特性和行人过街设施设置等方面,而对行人违章穿越的研究较少,多为定性描述和统计分析。因此,有必要研究行人违章穿越行为特性规律,建立行人违章穿越行为影响因素指标体系,以此促进行人交通规划管理的可持续发展,实现以人为本。
研究时考虑了行人过街需求的城市道路管理功能分类,确定城市主干道为本文主要研究对象。作为研究行人交通的基础,然后采用人工调查和视频调查法相结合的方法进行了行人违章穿越行为调查,并对调查数据进行抽样提取,然后对结伴人数、等待时间等指标进行相应统计分析。
基于违章调查的分析,建立影响行人违章穿越行为影响因素指标体系,采用主成分分析法析取了主要影响因素。然后,采用Logistics回归模型以信号控制交叉口人行横道为例对行人违章穿越行为影响因素选择进行建模和参数标定,分析了主要影响因素在违章穿越行为中的作用。结果表明模型能很好反映行人违章穿越特性。研究结论对行人交通设施规划、管理和行人违章穿越管理有较好的指导意义。
从众行为是一种普遍的社会现象,对行人违章穿越有较大的影响。从社会心理学的角度探讨了从众行为的分类、影响因素。根据行人违章调查数据,分析了从众心理对行人违章行为的影响。利用传播扩散和复杂网络科学理论与方法,基于Bass模型和阈值模型建立了从众心理在违章穿越中的影响分析模型,并根据观察数据进行了参数标定,定量分析了从众行为对行人违章的影响程度。结果证实,从众者比例越高,且其对自身效用评价赋权越小,其发生从众违章行为的可能性就越大。
以和平大道—铁机路交叉口人行横道为例,通过VISSIM仿真软件建立行人违章穿越行为仿真模型进行仿真实验,采用行人、机动车延误等参数分析违章穿越行为对交叉口运行效率的影响。仿真实验研究表明随着行人违章率的增加,平均等待人数、平均车速等指标就会相应的下降,相反机动车延误增加,而行人延误则没有明显下降。
As an important travel mode in urban transportation, pedestrian traffic is closely related to human activities. Although pedestrian speed is slow and walking trip distance is short, pedestrian traffic has good accessibility, almost without time-space constraints. Moreover, as a green traffic, the traffic resources it occupied are limited. A typical feature of Chinese urban transport is mixed transportation and the road space-time resources are limited, as a result, the contradiction between slow-moving traffic and vehicle traffic is being increasingly fierce. Because of the idea of "stressing motor traffic, underrating pedestrian traffic" in urban transportation practice, the backward pedestrian traffic planning and imperfect management and planning of pedestrian facilities, a large number of pedestrians cross illegally, resulting in traffic conflicts and frequent occurrence of traffic accidents, which seriously affect the operational efficiency of urban transport systems. Pedestrian traffic study in China far more focus on pedestrian traffic characteristics and pedestrian facilities installation etc. than the study of pedestrian violation crossing, which is mostly qualitative description and statistical analysis. Therefore, it is quite necessary to study the law of pedestrian violation behavior and establish an influencing factor index system of pedestrian violation behavior, so as to promote sustainable development of pedestrian traffic planning and to realize the action of people-oriented.
The paper took the urban road system management function classification of pedestrian crossing demand into consideration and selected the arterial road as the main object of the study. As the basis of pedestrian traffic research, the manual survey and video survey methods were applied in the pedestrian violation behavior survey. Then the behavior sample data was extracted and the number of companies and waiting time etc. were analyzed statistically.
Based on the analysis of violation investigation, an influencing factor index system of pedestrian violation behavior was established. The main factors were extracted by using principal component analysis. Then, a choice model of pedestrian violation behavior was constructed by adopting Logistics regression model and the model parameters were calibrated. The role of the main influencing factors in pedestrian violation behavior was analyzed. Results show that the model can explain characteristics of pedestrian violation behavior very good. Conclusions have guidance to pedestrian traffic facilities planning and pedestrian violated crossing management.
Conformity behavior is a universal social phenomenon and has great effect on pedestrian violated crossing. From the perspective of social psychology, the research discussed the classification and influencing factors of conformity behavior. According to the survey data, this paper analyzed how the conformity behavior affects pedestrian violation behavior. Using the theory and method of the diffusion and complex network, a model based on Bass model and Threshold model was established to analyze the effect of conformity behavior on the pedestrian violation behavior, and its parameters was calibrated according to the observed data. Results prove that the higher the ratio of conformity pedestrian, and the smaller the weight of his utility evaluation he gave, the greater the probability that he conforms with violators.
Taking the crosswalk of the intersection between Heping Avenue and Tieji Road as an example, the pedestrian violation behavior simulation model was built by VISSIM simulation software. The pedestrian delay, vehicle delay and other parameters were used to analyze the influence of pedestrian violation behavior on intersection operation efficiency. Simulation experiment shows that with the increasing of pedestrian violation ratio, the number of pedestrians waiting for crossing and the average vehicles speed will decline, on the contrary a corresponding increase in vehicle delay, and there is no significant change in pedestrian delay.
研究时考虑了行人过街需求的城市道路管理功能分类,确定城市主干道为本文主要研究对象。作为研究行人交通的基础,然后采用人工调查和视频调查法相结合的方法进行了行人违章穿越行为调查,并对调查数据进行抽样提取,然后对结伴人数、等待时间等指标进行相应统计分析。
基于违章调查的分析,建立影响行人违章穿越行为影响因素指标体系,采用主成分分析法析取了主要影响因素。然后,采用Logistics回归模型以信号控制交叉口人行横道为例对行人违章穿越行为影响因素选择进行建模和参数标定,分析了主要影响因素在违章穿越行为中的作用。结果表明模型能很好反映行人违章穿越特性。研究结论对行人交通设施规划、管理和行人违章穿越管理有较好的指导意义。
从众行为是一种普遍的社会现象,对行人违章穿越有较大的影响。从社会心理学的角度探讨了从众行为的分类、影响因素。根据行人违章调查数据,分析了从众心理对行人违章行为的影响。利用传播扩散和复杂网络科学理论与方法,基于Bass模型和阈值模型建立了从众心理在违章穿越中的影响分析模型,并根据观察数据进行了参数标定,定量分析了从众行为对行人违章的影响程度。结果证实,从众者比例越高,且其对自身效用评价赋权越小,其发生从众违章行为的可能性就越大。
以和平大道—铁机路交叉口人行横道为例,通过VISSIM仿真软件建立行人违章穿越行为仿真模型进行仿真实验,采用行人、机动车延误等参数分析违章穿越行为对交叉口运行效率的影响。仿真实验研究表明随着行人违章率的增加,平均等待人数、平均车速等指标就会相应的下降,相反机动车延误增加,而行人延误则没有明显下降。
As an important travel mode in urban transportation, pedestrian traffic is closely related to human activities. Although pedestrian speed is slow and walking trip distance is short, pedestrian traffic has good accessibility, almost without time-space constraints. Moreover, as a green traffic, the traffic resources it occupied are limited. A typical feature of Chinese urban transport is mixed transportation and the road space-time resources are limited, as a result, the contradiction between slow-moving traffic and vehicle traffic is being increasingly fierce. Because of the idea of "stressing motor traffic, underrating pedestrian traffic" in urban transportation practice, the backward pedestrian traffic planning and imperfect management and planning of pedestrian facilities, a large number of pedestrians cross illegally, resulting in traffic conflicts and frequent occurrence of traffic accidents, which seriously affect the operational efficiency of urban transport systems. Pedestrian traffic study in China far more focus on pedestrian traffic characteristics and pedestrian facilities installation etc. than the study of pedestrian violation crossing, which is mostly qualitative description and statistical analysis. Therefore, it is quite necessary to study the law of pedestrian violation behavior and establish an influencing factor index system of pedestrian violation behavior, so as to promote sustainable development of pedestrian traffic planning and to realize the action of people-oriented.
The paper took the urban road system management function classification of pedestrian crossing demand into consideration and selected the arterial road as the main object of the study. As the basis of pedestrian traffic research, the manual survey and video survey methods were applied in the pedestrian violation behavior survey. Then the behavior sample data was extracted and the number of companies and waiting time etc. were analyzed statistically.
Based on the analysis of violation investigation, an influencing factor index system of pedestrian violation behavior was established. The main factors were extracted by using principal component analysis. Then, a choice model of pedestrian violation behavior was constructed by adopting Logistics regression model and the model parameters were calibrated. The role of the main influencing factors in pedestrian violation behavior was analyzed. Results show that the model can explain characteristics of pedestrian violation behavior very good. Conclusions have guidance to pedestrian traffic facilities planning and pedestrian violated crossing management.
Conformity behavior is a universal social phenomenon and has great effect on pedestrian violated crossing. From the perspective of social psychology, the research discussed the classification and influencing factors of conformity behavior. According to the survey data, this paper analyzed how the conformity behavior affects pedestrian violation behavior. Using the theory and method of the diffusion and complex network, a model based on Bass model and Threshold model was established to analyze the effect of conformity behavior on the pedestrian violation behavior, and its parameters was calibrated according to the observed data. Results prove that the higher the ratio of conformity pedestrian, and the smaller the weight of his utility evaluation he gave, the greater the probability that he conforms with violators.
Taking the crosswalk of the intersection between Heping Avenue and Tieji Road as an example, the pedestrian violation behavior simulation model was built by VISSIM simulation software. The pedestrian delay, vehicle delay and other parameters were used to analyze the influence of pedestrian violation behavior on intersection operation efficiency. Simulation experiment shows that with the increasing of pedestrian violation ratio, the number of pedestrians waiting for crossing and the average vehicles speed will decline, on the contrary a corresponding increase in vehicle delay, and there is no significant change in pedestrian delay.
引文
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