教育、人力资本、经济增长——理论阐释和实证检验
摘要
自改革开放以来的30年,我国经济总量的增长举世瞩目,同时伴随的是各个地区,城市和乡村发展的非均衡,这种非均衡的现实状态和人力资本形成密切相关,因此,从人力资本角度研究我国的经济增长,是有意义的,也是重要的。本文从这个角度出发,研究人力资本的形成、度量和总量上的变化,将全国每一个省份的人力资本存量都利用收入法和成本法加以计量,给出各个省份的人力资本形成数量和变化趋势,进而研究人力资本和教育、经济增长之间的关联,利用面板数据模型,聚类分析等手段将各省状态按照人力资本、经济增长等指标进行分类,并考察不同类别的增长方式和增长途径,最后,根据实证结论,给出我国应该采取的人力资本战略分析。
人力资本测算结果的表明:从存量上看,我国人力资本存量的增速远远不如物质资本的增速;从流量上看,我国人力资本形成过程中,更多的依赖于教育投入,研发成本所占份额过小。聚类分析的结果表明:全国可以划分为六大类,第一类包括北京、天津和上海,第二类广东、江苏、浙江和山东,第三类是重庆,第四类是河北、辽宁、安徽、河南、湖北、湖南、四川,第五类是以西部地区为主,包括东北地区的吉林和黑龙江的15个省份,西藏自成一类。
关联模型的结果表明:教育年限较短是制约我国人力资本形成的瓶颈;人均教育年限的增加,对人均GDP的增加比总量上的增加具有更大的作用;我国存在劳动力人口多,素质低的问题,同时人力资本利用效率极低,因此,提高人力资本利用效率,增强劳动力素质,是实现经济增长的关键因素。在对策上,增加教育投入、优化教育结构、支持研发和创新和人才培养是我国亟待解决的问题。
Economic growth is the persistent theme in economics’study, especially in the causes of economic growth, the role and effectiveness of the mechanism, and the large amount of literature from various angles have been carried out in-depth analysis. And during China's 30 years of reform and opening, the growth of total economic output attracts worldwide attention, at the same time, there’s the non-equilibrium development of different regions, and the urban and rural regions, the reality of this non-equilibrium is closely related to human capital formation, therefore, the study of China’s economic growth from the human capital point of view is meaningful and important.
From this perspective, this paper studied human capital’s formation, measurement and the changes in total, and measured each province’s human capital stock by using the income method and cost method, and given the various provinces’amount of human capital formation and their trends, and researched the link among human capital, education and economic growth, using panel data model and cluster analysis to classified the provinces in accordance with human capital and economic growth indicators, and studied the different types of growth mode and growth path, and finally, according to the empirical conclusions, gave the strategic analysis of human capital should be adopted in our country.
The paper has three main parts within six chapters.
The first part is introduction, chapters 1 and 2, it gives the theory of economic growth, and introduced literatures of the human capital-related research.
Introduction gives the article’s study background and significance, and introduces the research framework of this article.
The first chapter is the economic growth theory’s summary, first of all, introduced the sort of economic growth theory and ideology in detail, and further introduced the classical growth theory, neo-classical growth theory, and the theory of endogenous technological progress, gives the theoretical basis to follow-up study in this paper.
Chapter 2 is the education and human capital formation, first of all, given the definition of capital, and given variety explanations and understandings on capital, and then given the meaning of human capital based on the definition of capital, research on the context and process of understanding the human capital, further given this article’s understanding and the definition of human capital, and ultimately theoretically expatiated and analyzed the relationship between education and human capital formation, and gives two models of the relationship between education and economic growth.
The second part is chapter 3, chapter 4 and chapter 5, which is the principal part and core content of this. First of all, the article gave the method of measurement of human capital, and measured China's human capital stock and flow by using income method and cost method, and used the results of estimation to study association among these results, economic growth and education indicators.
Chapter 3 is the human capital calculation methods. First of all, given the characteristics of human capital, and based on a better understanding of the characteristics of human capital, summed up the measure methods of human capital, including revenue-based approach, education approach, competency-based methods and methods of integration, in order to provide a measure of human capital method.
Chapter 4 estimated China's human capital by using revenue and cost method. First of all, given typical characteristics and fact of China's human capital, further using cost and income methods, respectively measured the human capital stock and flow, and studied in national data and various provinces respectively, and received the national human capital data and the human capital data of various provinces.
The analysis according to the results of measurement shows that from the stock point of view, China's growth rate of human capital stock is far less than the growth rate of physical capital, which shows that human capital investment is still not to be the relative importance, but also the investment in human capital can not be more effective in promoting economic growth comparing physical capital; from the flow point of view, in our country’s human capital formation process, the investment in education is main part, and R & D cost share is too small. In addition, human capital is far less important than the material capital, economic development and economic growth mode are still more dependent on physical capital investment rather than investment in human capital.
Chapter 5 is the relationship among investment in education, human capital and economic growth. Using human capital stock data from chapter 4, the paper classified various regions in China, and further gave the education indicators of various regions, with introducing the economic growth indicators, carried cluster analysis by using three types of indicators. Firstly, all provinces are divided into similar categories, and for each category, it researches the transmission mechanism of education on human capital formation, and study the transmissions of human capital and education investment into economic growth.
The result of cluster analysis shows that, in accordance with human capital, education and economic growth indicators, the country can be divided into six categories, the first category includes Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai, the second category is Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shandong, the third type is Chongqing, the fourth category is Hebei, Liaoning, Anhui, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Sichuan, the fifth category is 15 provinces including the north-eastern regions of Jilin and Heilongjiang, and mainly is western regions, and Tibet is a category of its own.
From the results of education and human capital associated model, the shorter number of years of education is the constraints of our human capital formation, therefore, to increase investment in education, to expand the scope of education, to improve the level of education, and to increase number of years of education are important. The estimated results by using per value show that the increase in per number of years of education has a greater role in the increase of the stock of per human capital.
From the results of connection between education and economic growth, per number of years of education’s increase has more effect on the increase in per GDP than the increase in overall, obviously, China's relatively low level of education, and increasing educational investment, expanding the scope of education, and increasing the number of years of education are necessary measures.
From the results of associated model of human capital and economic growth, China's the problem of great amount of labor population within low quality, at the same time, the utilization efficiency of human capital is very low, therefore, improving the human capital efficiency, and enhancing the quality of the workforce are the key factors in economic growth.
The third part is the sixth chapter, which using empirical results and our country’s reality, given the development strategy of human capital. This article concluded that: increasing educational investment, optimizing the education structure, supporting the R & D and innovation, and personnel training are serious problems in our country, and increasing educational investment needs to increase government expenditure on education, encourage the community school, take full advantage of the development of information technology to improve the level of education; optimizing the educational structure should be mainly from the development of vocational education, focusing on corporate training and quality education, to promote the rationalization of the structure of education; to support R & D and innovation should be from the perspective of improving the national innovation system, promoting human resources flow and other aspects, and introducing personnel reasonably, so as to further promote the long-term stability of China's economic development.
人力资本测算结果的表明:从存量上看,我国人力资本存量的增速远远不如物质资本的增速;从流量上看,我国人力资本形成过程中,更多的依赖于教育投入,研发成本所占份额过小。聚类分析的结果表明:全国可以划分为六大类,第一类包括北京、天津和上海,第二类广东、江苏、浙江和山东,第三类是重庆,第四类是河北、辽宁、安徽、河南、湖北、湖南、四川,第五类是以西部地区为主,包括东北地区的吉林和黑龙江的15个省份,西藏自成一类。
关联模型的结果表明:教育年限较短是制约我国人力资本形成的瓶颈;人均教育年限的增加,对人均GDP的增加比总量上的增加具有更大的作用;我国存在劳动力人口多,素质低的问题,同时人力资本利用效率极低,因此,提高人力资本利用效率,增强劳动力素质,是实现经济增长的关键因素。在对策上,增加教育投入、优化教育结构、支持研发和创新和人才培养是我国亟待解决的问题。
Economic growth is the persistent theme in economics’study, especially in the causes of economic growth, the role and effectiveness of the mechanism, and the large amount of literature from various angles have been carried out in-depth analysis. And during China's 30 years of reform and opening, the growth of total economic output attracts worldwide attention, at the same time, there’s the non-equilibrium development of different regions, and the urban and rural regions, the reality of this non-equilibrium is closely related to human capital formation, therefore, the study of China’s economic growth from the human capital point of view is meaningful and important.
From this perspective, this paper studied human capital’s formation, measurement and the changes in total, and measured each province’s human capital stock by using the income method and cost method, and given the various provinces’amount of human capital formation and their trends, and researched the link among human capital, education and economic growth, using panel data model and cluster analysis to classified the provinces in accordance with human capital and economic growth indicators, and studied the different types of growth mode and growth path, and finally, according to the empirical conclusions, gave the strategic analysis of human capital should be adopted in our country.
The paper has three main parts within six chapters.
The first part is introduction, chapters 1 and 2, it gives the theory of economic growth, and introduced literatures of the human capital-related research.
Introduction gives the article’s study background and significance, and introduces the research framework of this article.
The first chapter is the economic growth theory’s summary, first of all, introduced the sort of economic growth theory and ideology in detail, and further introduced the classical growth theory, neo-classical growth theory, and the theory of endogenous technological progress, gives the theoretical basis to follow-up study in this paper.
Chapter 2 is the education and human capital formation, first of all, given the definition of capital, and given variety explanations and understandings on capital, and then given the meaning of human capital based on the definition of capital, research on the context and process of understanding the human capital, further given this article’s understanding and the definition of human capital, and ultimately theoretically expatiated and analyzed the relationship between education and human capital formation, and gives two models of the relationship between education and economic growth.
The second part is chapter 3, chapter 4 and chapter 5, which is the principal part and core content of this. First of all, the article gave the method of measurement of human capital, and measured China's human capital stock and flow by using income method and cost method, and used the results of estimation to study association among these results, economic growth and education indicators.
Chapter 3 is the human capital calculation methods. First of all, given the characteristics of human capital, and based on a better understanding of the characteristics of human capital, summed up the measure methods of human capital, including revenue-based approach, education approach, competency-based methods and methods of integration, in order to provide a measure of human capital method.
Chapter 4 estimated China's human capital by using revenue and cost method. First of all, given typical characteristics and fact of China's human capital, further using cost and income methods, respectively measured the human capital stock and flow, and studied in national data and various provinces respectively, and received the national human capital data and the human capital data of various provinces.
The analysis according to the results of measurement shows that from the stock point of view, China's growth rate of human capital stock is far less than the growth rate of physical capital, which shows that human capital investment is still not to be the relative importance, but also the investment in human capital can not be more effective in promoting economic growth comparing physical capital; from the flow point of view, in our country’s human capital formation process, the investment in education is main part, and R & D cost share is too small. In addition, human capital is far less important than the material capital, economic development and economic growth mode are still more dependent on physical capital investment rather than investment in human capital.
Chapter 5 is the relationship among investment in education, human capital and economic growth. Using human capital stock data from chapter 4, the paper classified various regions in China, and further gave the education indicators of various regions, with introducing the economic growth indicators, carried cluster analysis by using three types of indicators. Firstly, all provinces are divided into similar categories, and for each category, it researches the transmission mechanism of education on human capital formation, and study the transmissions of human capital and education investment into economic growth.
The result of cluster analysis shows that, in accordance with human capital, education and economic growth indicators, the country can be divided into six categories, the first category includes Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai, the second category is Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shandong, the third type is Chongqing, the fourth category is Hebei, Liaoning, Anhui, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Sichuan, the fifth category is 15 provinces including the north-eastern regions of Jilin and Heilongjiang, and mainly is western regions, and Tibet is a category of its own.
From the results of education and human capital associated model, the shorter number of years of education is the constraints of our human capital formation, therefore, to increase investment in education, to expand the scope of education, to improve the level of education, and to increase number of years of education are important. The estimated results by using per value show that the increase in per number of years of education has a greater role in the increase of the stock of per human capital.
From the results of connection between education and economic growth, per number of years of education’s increase has more effect on the increase in per GDP than the increase in overall, obviously, China's relatively low level of education, and increasing educational investment, expanding the scope of education, and increasing the number of years of education are necessary measures.
From the results of associated model of human capital and economic growth, China's the problem of great amount of labor population within low quality, at the same time, the utilization efficiency of human capital is very low, therefore, improving the human capital efficiency, and enhancing the quality of the workforce are the key factors in economic growth.
The third part is the sixth chapter, which using empirical results and our country’s reality, given the development strategy of human capital. This article concluded that: increasing educational investment, optimizing the education structure, supporting the R & D and innovation, and personnel training are serious problems in our country, and increasing educational investment needs to increase government expenditure on education, encourage the community school, take full advantage of the development of information technology to improve the level of education; optimizing the educational structure should be mainly from the development of vocational education, focusing on corporate training and quality education, to promote the rationalization of the structure of education; to support R & D and innovation should be from the perspective of improving the national innovation system, promoting human resources flow and other aspects, and introducing personnel reasonably, so as to further promote the long-term stability of China's economic development.
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