基于系统动力学的复杂供应链系统协同策略建模分析研究
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摘要
供应链的协同涉及多个企业、多个环节、多种因素,是一个复杂的系统问题,具有非线性、多反馈循环节等复杂系统的特点。在现有的研究方法中,以静态的数学建模方法和指标分析方法为主,但一般的方法很难描述复杂供应链系统所表现出的非线性特性,有很多的不足之处。系统动力学方法作为被验证了的研究经济社会系统的一类有效方法,目前已经得到越来越多研究供应链管理学者的重视,如何将系统动力学方法应用于复杂供应链系统的分析和诊断过程,是当前一个研究的热点。针对应用系统动力学理论分析复杂供应链协同这一问题,并结合企业供应链改进的需要,本文开展了以下几个方面的研究工作。
1、研究了供应链系统的复杂性和供应链系统动力学方法的特点,针对以制造企业为核心的供应链,建立了两种供应模式的异构供应链系统模型。对供应商、制造商以及供应链整体的关键绩效指标进行了评价。
2、研究了基于供应链信息共享协同策略的问题。设计并建立了完全互信状态、非互信状态两种信息共享的系统动力学模型,对两种模式下的供应链绩效进行了评价和分析,研究了在竞争环境下信息泄密问题对供应链影响;分析了信息共享策略对实际供应链的影响。
3、研究了基于契约模式的供应链协同问题。建立了不同契约模式的系统动力学模型,并分析了在不同的契约模式下,供需双方以及整体利润的变化情况,对结果进行了分析和研究;对企业应用契约协同策略进行了分析和讨论。
4、结合系统动力学理论中的结构化分析方法,提出了基于LEEA方法的复杂供应链系统动力学模型结构化分析的思想和方法,建立了分析的一般过程模型,并结合供应链库存管理结构进行了研究和分析。
最后,在研究的基础上,对研究成果和未来研究方向进行了总结和展望。
The supply chain collaboration relates with so many different enterprises, links and factors. It is a complex system problem which has nonlinear and multi-feedback characteristics. Most of the methods used in analyzing the supply chain are the static method on mathematic modeling and indics analyzing. It can describe the complexity hardly. The System Dynamics method, as an effective method validated in studying and resolving the social and economic systems, are being paid more and more attention. How to use System Dynamics method to deal with the complex supply chain system analysis and diagnosis is a focus in supply chain management area. According to the analyzing complex supply chain system collaboration and the rebuilding requirement of the enterprise, four aspects are studied in the thesis:
1. The complexity of supply chain and the characteristics of System Dynamics method are studied at first. An isomerous supply chain System Dynamics model that has two supply modes is established based on the analysis on a core manufacturing enterprise supply chain. The performance of some key performance indics is analyzed by simulation then.
2. Supply chain collaboration strategy through information sharing is studied. Two proposals are designed to descripet the different information sharing mode. The two modes are perfect mutual-trust and non-mutual-trust. The System Dynamics analysis of the supply chain under these two proposals is done. Moreover, the effect that divulgence brought under a competition environment is studied. The effect of information sharing on a manufacture is analyzed.
3. Supply Chain collaboration through contracts is studied. The System Dynamics models with different contract mode are established. The profits of the supplier, manufacture, and the whole chain are analyzed. Then, the application of the contract is discussed.
4. A method that can aid analysis for the supply chain is put forward, and the general process is structured. The method is based on the structural analysis method of System Dynamics model. Then, the method is used in the analysis in stock management structure.
At last, the reach result and the direction in the future are concluded and prospected.
1、研究了供应链系统的复杂性和供应链系统动力学方法的特点,针对以制造企业为核心的供应链,建立了两种供应模式的异构供应链系统模型。对供应商、制造商以及供应链整体的关键绩效指标进行了评价。
2、研究了基于供应链信息共享协同策略的问题。设计并建立了完全互信状态、非互信状态两种信息共享的系统动力学模型,对两种模式下的供应链绩效进行了评价和分析,研究了在竞争环境下信息泄密问题对供应链影响;分析了信息共享策略对实际供应链的影响。
3、研究了基于契约模式的供应链协同问题。建立了不同契约模式的系统动力学模型,并分析了在不同的契约模式下,供需双方以及整体利润的变化情况,对结果进行了分析和研究;对企业应用契约协同策略进行了分析和讨论。
4、结合系统动力学理论中的结构化分析方法,提出了基于LEEA方法的复杂供应链系统动力学模型结构化分析的思想和方法,建立了分析的一般过程模型,并结合供应链库存管理结构进行了研究和分析。
最后,在研究的基础上,对研究成果和未来研究方向进行了总结和展望。
The supply chain collaboration relates with so many different enterprises, links and factors. It is a complex system problem which has nonlinear and multi-feedback characteristics. Most of the methods used in analyzing the supply chain are the static method on mathematic modeling and indics analyzing. It can describe the complexity hardly. The System Dynamics method, as an effective method validated in studying and resolving the social and economic systems, are being paid more and more attention. How to use System Dynamics method to deal with the complex supply chain system analysis and diagnosis is a focus in supply chain management area. According to the analyzing complex supply chain system collaboration and the rebuilding requirement of the enterprise, four aspects are studied in the thesis:
1. The complexity of supply chain and the characteristics of System Dynamics method are studied at first. An isomerous supply chain System Dynamics model that has two supply modes is established based on the analysis on a core manufacturing enterprise supply chain. The performance of some key performance indics is analyzed by simulation then.
2. Supply chain collaboration strategy through information sharing is studied. Two proposals are designed to descripet the different information sharing mode. The two modes are perfect mutual-trust and non-mutual-trust. The System Dynamics analysis of the supply chain under these two proposals is done. Moreover, the effect that divulgence brought under a competition environment is studied. The effect of information sharing on a manufacture is analyzed.
3. Supply Chain collaboration through contracts is studied. The System Dynamics models with different contract mode are established. The profits of the supplier, manufacture, and the whole chain are analyzed. Then, the application of the contract is discussed.
4. A method that can aid analysis for the supply chain is put forward, and the general process is structured. The method is based on the structural analysis method of System Dynamics model. Then, the method is used in the analysis in stock management structure.
At last, the reach result and the direction in the future are concluded and prospected.
引文
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