过度自信、多元化与企业绩效
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摘要
农业是第一产业,农业企业是农业经济的细胞,农业上市公司则是代表中国现阶段先进农业生产力的企业组织形式。然而,由于农业弱质性与资本逐利性的矛盾等原因,肩负重任的农业上市公司从事多元化经营甚至非农化、背农经营的现象却相当严重。多元化经营的效率如何、究竟是创造价值还是损害价值已成为困挠学术界和实务界的一个难题。企业多元化经营的传统研究遵循理性经济人假设,没能考虑企业参与主体的心理因素对企业经营行为的影响,无法解释现实企业中出现的许多现象。因此,有必要引入心理学研究成果,考虑企业管理者的心理因素对企业经营和决策行为的影响。本文主要研究农业上市公司管理者是否存在过度自信心理,这种心理是否影响农业上市公司的多元化经营,农业上市公司多元化经营是否影响企业绩效,企业经营绩效又是否影响管理者的自信心理等问题。
本文采用了规范研究和实证检验相结合的研究方法。首先从理论角度分析了管理者过度自信存在的依据,阐述了农业上市公司多元化经营的相关理论,在此基础上,确定30家农业类上市公司作为研究样本,并收集相关数据进行实证研究,具体研究方法包括描述性统计方法、Spearman等级相关系数以及K-S检验法等。
本文将研究样本确定为证监会《上市公司行业分类指引》中界定的农林牧副渔的A股上市公司,研究农业上市公司管理者过度自信、多元化经营程度与企业绩效的关系。以管理者增减持比例作为衡量管理者自信程度的变量,并按照总经理、企业高管和董事加高管三个类别设置过度自信变量。选择业务单元数、Herfindahl指数以及熵指数等三个指标作为衡量公司多元化经营的变量。选择净资产收益率(ROE)、总资产收益率(ROA)、营业利润率和毛利率等财务绩效以及托宾Q值、市净率和市盈率等市场绩效来衡量企业绩效。研究表明,我国农业上市公司数量偏少、规模较小、地域分布不均匀、整体盈利能力较低,严重背离了农业的国民经济基础地位,农业上市公司存在较严重的多元化倾向,而且这种倾向有进一步扩大的趋势。农业上市公司管理者过度自信均值都在1左右,而且大多数大于1,这表明农业上市公司管理者不存在明显的过度自信倾向。影响管理者自信程度的相关因素包括个体特征和组织特征两方面,实证研究表明,个体特征中年龄因素与管理者自信程度在1%的显著性水平上相关,而且管理者的年龄与自信程度相关呈现负相关关系,性别因素只与总经理过度自信存在低相关关系。个体特征中的另两个变量即管理者受教育程度和任现职年限与管理层自信程度不存在显著相关关系。农业上市公司管理者的自信程度与企业资产规模、流通股比例、国家股比例、第一大股东持股比例、资产负债率、董事会人数、总经理/董事长两职状态以及独立董事比例无显著相关。农业上市公司营业收入增长率波动幅度相当大,经营风险高。从Spearman相关系数及其显著性检验结果看,两职合一状态与业务单元数、Herfindahl指数和熵指数都具有相关性,补贴收入的自然对数与业务单元数在5%的显著性水平上相关,其他因素对多元化的影响都未达到显著性水平。对管理者过度自信、多元化与企业绩效之间的相关关系进行检验后发现,管理者的自信程度与农业上市公司多元化经营程度没有统计学意义上的显著性,多元化变量与企业绩效之间未显示出统计学意义上的显著相关关系,企业绩效与管理者过度自信变量之间也未显示出统计学意义上的显著相关关系。论文最后给出了本文的主要研究结论,对我国农业上市公司的经营提出了建议以及相应的政策措施,指出了本文的研究局限性与未来的研究方向。
Agriculture is the primary industry, agricultural enterprises is the cells of agricultural economy, the agricultural listed companies is the advanced behalf of organizational form of agricultural productivity in China today. Being burdened with important task,however, listed agricultural companies are engaged in diversified operation and back farming operation,because of the weakness of the agriculture and profit-driven characters of the capital. The efficiency of the diversification has become a big problem to the academic and practice.The tradition research on corporate diversification follows with rational economic man hypothesis, it failed to consider the impact of the participate 's psychological factors on the business operations, and it cannot explain the reality of many phenomena arising in business. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce the psychological research, considering the psychological factors of business managers on business operations and decision-making behavior. The purpose of this paper is to study the existence of of agricultural listed companies managers over-confidence psychological, and whether this kind of psychological impact the diversification of agricultural listed companies, whether diversification affect business performance, whether business performance affect over-confidence. In this paper, the normative and empirical research methods combined. First, analysising the existence of over-confidence from a theoretical view, describing the relevant theory of the diversification, and then collecting 30 agricultural listed companies data for empirical research, including descriptive statistics and explanatory research. Specific methods including descriptive statistics, Spearman rank correlation coefficient and the K-S test method.
Agricultural listed companies in the article is the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries of the A-share listed in Shanghai and shenzhen,which was defined in Guidelines on Industrial Classification of Listed Companies by SEC.this paper will examine the correlation relationship among manager overconfidence, diversification and firm performance levels.The degree of managers over-confidence are measured as change in the proportion of managers share-holding, and it can be caculated with the general manager, senior executives and directors plus senior executives, selecting the business unit number, Herfindahl index and the entropy index as a measure of corporate diversification variables. Financial performance can be measured by ROE,ROA,operating margin, gross margin, and market performance can be measured by Tobin's Q, P/B and P/E. Research shows that Chinese agricultural listed companies are characterd with less than normal number, small scale, uneven geographical distribution, the lower overall profitability, it departures from the foundation of the national economy of agriculture significantly. The agricultural listed companies exists the tend to diversify more serious, and this tendency to further expand. The mean of managers overconfidence are about and most of greater than 1, indicating that there is no obvious overconfidence tendency for the managers. Managers Confidence are affected by individual characteristics and organizational characteristics. Empirical studies showes that the managers'age have significantly correlation with level of overconfidence in the level 1%,and it is negative correlation, the correlation between over-confidence and gender factor is low. Degree of education and the year employed in the current position have no significant correlation. Managers over-confidence have no significant correlation with corporate assets, the proportion of tradable shares, the proportion of state-owned shares, the proportion of the largest shareholder, asset-liability ratio, number of directors, two state of the general manager/chairman of the board in staff(Dual) and The proportion of independent directors. Revenue growth of agricultural listed companies fluctuate considerably,with high risk business. The Dual has a significantly correlation with the number of business units, Herfindahl index and the entropy index. The natural logarithm of the Income subsidy and the number of business units are significantly correlated in the 5% level of significance, other factors did not reach significant levels.Manager's degree of confidence havenot not statistically significant correlation with the diversification degree, it did not show statistically significant correlation between diversification degree and firm performance variables, it also did not show statistically significant correlation between corporate performance and over-confidence variable.Finally, it give out the main conclusions of this paper, the recommendations to the management of agricultural listed companies and the corresponding policies, it also points out the limitations of this study and future research directions
本文采用了规范研究和实证检验相结合的研究方法。首先从理论角度分析了管理者过度自信存在的依据,阐述了农业上市公司多元化经营的相关理论,在此基础上,确定30家农业类上市公司作为研究样本,并收集相关数据进行实证研究,具体研究方法包括描述性统计方法、Spearman等级相关系数以及K-S检验法等。
本文将研究样本确定为证监会《上市公司行业分类指引》中界定的农林牧副渔的A股上市公司,研究农业上市公司管理者过度自信、多元化经营程度与企业绩效的关系。以管理者增减持比例作为衡量管理者自信程度的变量,并按照总经理、企业高管和董事加高管三个类别设置过度自信变量。选择业务单元数、Herfindahl指数以及熵指数等三个指标作为衡量公司多元化经营的变量。选择净资产收益率(ROE)、总资产收益率(ROA)、营业利润率和毛利率等财务绩效以及托宾Q值、市净率和市盈率等市场绩效来衡量企业绩效。研究表明,我国农业上市公司数量偏少、规模较小、地域分布不均匀、整体盈利能力较低,严重背离了农业的国民经济基础地位,农业上市公司存在较严重的多元化倾向,而且这种倾向有进一步扩大的趋势。农业上市公司管理者过度自信均值都在1左右,而且大多数大于1,这表明农业上市公司管理者不存在明显的过度自信倾向。影响管理者自信程度的相关因素包括个体特征和组织特征两方面,实证研究表明,个体特征中年龄因素与管理者自信程度在1%的显著性水平上相关,而且管理者的年龄与自信程度相关呈现负相关关系,性别因素只与总经理过度自信存在低相关关系。个体特征中的另两个变量即管理者受教育程度和任现职年限与管理层自信程度不存在显著相关关系。农业上市公司管理者的自信程度与企业资产规模、流通股比例、国家股比例、第一大股东持股比例、资产负债率、董事会人数、总经理/董事长两职状态以及独立董事比例无显著相关。农业上市公司营业收入增长率波动幅度相当大,经营风险高。从Spearman相关系数及其显著性检验结果看,两职合一状态与业务单元数、Herfindahl指数和熵指数都具有相关性,补贴收入的自然对数与业务单元数在5%的显著性水平上相关,其他因素对多元化的影响都未达到显著性水平。对管理者过度自信、多元化与企业绩效之间的相关关系进行检验后发现,管理者的自信程度与农业上市公司多元化经营程度没有统计学意义上的显著性,多元化变量与企业绩效之间未显示出统计学意义上的显著相关关系,企业绩效与管理者过度自信变量之间也未显示出统计学意义上的显著相关关系。论文最后给出了本文的主要研究结论,对我国农业上市公司的经营提出了建议以及相应的政策措施,指出了本文的研究局限性与未来的研究方向。
Agriculture is the primary industry, agricultural enterprises is the cells of agricultural economy, the agricultural listed companies is the advanced behalf of organizational form of agricultural productivity in China today. Being burdened with important task,however, listed agricultural companies are engaged in diversified operation and back farming operation,because of the weakness of the agriculture and profit-driven characters of the capital. The efficiency of the diversification has become a big problem to the academic and practice.The tradition research on corporate diversification follows with rational economic man hypothesis, it failed to consider the impact of the participate 's psychological factors on the business operations, and it cannot explain the reality of many phenomena arising in business. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce the psychological research, considering the psychological factors of business managers on business operations and decision-making behavior. The purpose of this paper is to study the existence of of agricultural listed companies managers over-confidence psychological, and whether this kind of psychological impact the diversification of agricultural listed companies, whether diversification affect business performance, whether business performance affect over-confidence. In this paper, the normative and empirical research methods combined. First, analysising the existence of over-confidence from a theoretical view, describing the relevant theory of the diversification, and then collecting 30 agricultural listed companies data for empirical research, including descriptive statistics and explanatory research. Specific methods including descriptive statistics, Spearman rank correlation coefficient and the K-S test method.
Agricultural listed companies in the article is the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries of the A-share listed in Shanghai and shenzhen,which was defined in Guidelines on Industrial Classification of Listed Companies by SEC.this paper will examine the correlation relationship among manager overconfidence, diversification and firm performance levels.The degree of managers over-confidence are measured as change in the proportion of managers share-holding, and it can be caculated with the general manager, senior executives and directors plus senior executives, selecting the business unit number, Herfindahl index and the entropy index as a measure of corporate diversification variables. Financial performance can be measured by ROE,ROA,operating margin, gross margin, and market performance can be measured by Tobin's Q, P/B and P/E. Research shows that Chinese agricultural listed companies are characterd with less than normal number, small scale, uneven geographical distribution, the lower overall profitability, it departures from the foundation of the national economy of agriculture significantly. The agricultural listed companies exists the tend to diversify more serious, and this tendency to further expand. The mean of managers overconfidence are about and most of greater than 1, indicating that there is no obvious overconfidence tendency for the managers. Managers Confidence are affected by individual characteristics and organizational characteristics. Empirical studies showes that the managers'age have significantly correlation with level of overconfidence in the level 1%,and it is negative correlation, the correlation between over-confidence and gender factor is low. Degree of education and the year employed in the current position have no significant correlation. Managers over-confidence have no significant correlation with corporate assets, the proportion of tradable shares, the proportion of state-owned shares, the proportion of the largest shareholder, asset-liability ratio, number of directors, two state of the general manager/chairman of the board in staff(Dual) and The proportion of independent directors. Revenue growth of agricultural listed companies fluctuate considerably,with high risk business. The Dual has a significantly correlation with the number of business units, Herfindahl index and the entropy index. The natural logarithm of the Income subsidy and the number of business units are significantly correlated in the 5% level of significance, other factors did not reach significant levels.Manager's degree of confidence havenot not statistically significant correlation with the diversification degree, it did not show statistically significant correlation between diversification degree and firm performance variables, it also did not show statistically significant correlation between corporate performance and over-confidence variable.Finally, it give out the main conclusions of this paper, the recommendations to the management of agricultural listed companies and the corresponding policies, it also points out the limitations of this study and future research directions
引文
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1产业经济学派是以异质市场数量来进行多元化判别的。以需求交叉弹性作为判别独立市场的基础,如果交叉弹性高,产品易于相互替换,则属于相同市场；如果低,则产品属于分离的市场,
2测量方法的一致性或稳定性,也就是测量方法的信度。信度和效度是概念测量的最重要两个性质。按照Venkatraman & Grant (1986)的观点,研究主要分两类)：(1)实质研究(substantive research),即各种变量间的关系研究；(2)概念效度研究(construct validation research)即研究概念测量的信度和效度。
3Palepu(1985)指出,这种明显不同结论的根本差异在于用来衡量公司多元化程度的方法是不同的,产业经 济学采用简易的计算产品类别的指标,而战略管理学派则根据Rumelt(1974)的分类方式,采用类别的衡量指标。因此,多元化程度的衡量方式对于验证多元化与绩效的关系会有影响。
4对于这一差异,Weber & Hsee提出了“缓冲假设(cushion hypothesis)"进行解释,认为上述风险偏好的国别差异源于不同国家在价值观和社会结构方面的差异,即集体主义和个人主义的差异。个人主义强调个体的自由独立,而集体主义强调个人在家庭、社区及其他团体中的相互依赖和联系。当投资决策失败时,强调集体主义的中国国民能比美国国民更多地得到家人、亲戚和朋友的帮助,为个体提供困难时期的“缓冲”机制。因此,当面临不确定性投资决策时,中国国民比美国国民表现出更强的风险偏好。
5ST,是因财务状况恶化或其它状况出现异常由证交所强制进行或上市公司自己申请对该股票交易进行特别处理(Special treatment),名称前冠以“ST”,通常可以把ST股票作为连续亏损两年的标志,其日涨跌幅限制±5%,如果第三年继续亏损将有可能被终止上市。异常主要是指两种情况,一是上市公司经审计连续两个会计年度的净利润均为负值,二是上市公司最近一个会计年度经审计的每股净资产低于股票面值。*ST是指由证券交易所对存在股票终止上市风险的公司股票交易实行“警示存在终止上市风险的特别处理”,是在原有ST基础上增加的一种特别处理,与“ST”相比增加了“退市风险”。PT是英文Particular Transfer(特别转让)的缩写。依据《公司法》和《证券法》规定,上市公司出现连续三年亏损等情况,其股票将暂停上市。沪深交易所从1999年7月9日起,对这类暂停上市的股票实施特别转让服务,并在其简 称前冠以PT,称之为PT股票。
6一些ST和*ST公司重组后主业也发生了变化,如S*ST华塑(000509)主营计算机软件开发与咨询、ST松江(600225)即将转型房地产开发与经营业、ST华龙(600242)从事国内沿海干散货运输业务等。
7该准则在2001年、2003年、2005年和2007年分别进行了修订,但对于公司主营业务及其经营状况披露的规定并没有重大的变化。
8即用资本收益率减去企业各种类产品所属行业平均资本收益率的加权平均数来度量多元化对企业绩效的影响。
9此外,一些学者还通过计算(MV+BD)/(BV-CL)估计托宾Q值,其中MV=流通股市值+非流通股股数*每股净资产+负债帐面值；BD=长短期负债的帐面值；BV=资产帐面值；CL=流动负债帐面值。
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1产业经济学派是以异质市场数量来进行多元化判别的。以需求交叉弹性作为判别独立市场的基础,如果交叉弹性高,产品易于相互替换,则属于相同市场；如果低,则产品属于分离的市场,
2测量方法的一致性或稳定性,也就是测量方法的信度。信度和效度是概念测量的最重要两个性质。按照Venkatraman & Grant (1986)的观点,研究主要分两类)：(1)实质研究(substantive research),即各种变量间的关系研究；(2)概念效度研究(construct validation research)即研究概念测量的信度和效度。
3Palepu(1985)指出,这种明显不同结论的根本差异在于用来衡量公司多元化程度的方法是不同的,产业经 济学采用简易的计算产品类别的指标,而战略管理学派则根据Rumelt(1974)的分类方式,采用类别的衡量指标。因此,多元化程度的衡量方式对于验证多元化与绩效的关系会有影响。
4对于这一差异,Weber & Hsee提出了“缓冲假设(cushion hypothesis)"进行解释,认为上述风险偏好的国别差异源于不同国家在价值观和社会结构方面的差异,即集体主义和个人主义的差异。个人主义强调个体的自由独立,而集体主义强调个人在家庭、社区及其他团体中的相互依赖和联系。当投资决策失败时,强调集体主义的中国国民能比美国国民更多地得到家人、亲戚和朋友的帮助,为个体提供困难时期的“缓冲”机制。因此,当面临不确定性投资决策时,中国国民比美国国民表现出更强的风险偏好。
5ST,是因财务状况恶化或其它状况出现异常由证交所强制进行或上市公司自己申请对该股票交易进行特别处理(Special treatment),名称前冠以“ST”,通常可以把ST股票作为连续亏损两年的标志,其日涨跌幅限制±5%,如果第三年继续亏损将有可能被终止上市。异常主要是指两种情况,一是上市公司经审计连续两个会计年度的净利润均为负值,二是上市公司最近一个会计年度经审计的每股净资产低于股票面值。*ST是指由证券交易所对存在股票终止上市风险的公司股票交易实行“警示存在终止上市风险的特别处理”,是在原有ST基础上增加的一种特别处理,与“ST”相比增加了“退市风险”。PT是英文Particular Transfer(特别转让)的缩写。依据《公司法》和《证券法》规定,上市公司出现连续三年亏损等情况,其股票将暂停上市。沪深交易所从1999年7月9日起,对这类暂停上市的股票实施特别转让服务,并在其简 称前冠以PT,称之为PT股票。
6一些ST和*ST公司重组后主业也发生了变化,如S*ST华塑(000509)主营计算机软件开发与咨询、ST松江(600225)即将转型房地产开发与经营业、ST华龙(600242)从事国内沿海干散货运输业务等。
7该准则在2001年、2003年、2005年和2007年分别进行了修订,但对于公司主营业务及其经营状况披露的规定并没有重大的变化。
8即用资本收益率减去企业各种类产品所属行业平均资本收益率的加权平均数来度量多元化对企业绩效的影响。
9此外,一些学者还通过计算(MV+BD)/(BV-CL)估计托宾Q值,其中MV=流通股市值+非流通股股数*每股净资产+负债帐面值；BD=长短期负债的帐面值；BV=资产帐面值；CL=流动负债帐面值。