沉降型化学品海上泄漏事故应急决策支持系统的研究
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摘要
随着海上液体化学品运输、中转量的不断增加,化学品泄漏风险也日益增加,
对海上泄漏化学品行为进行合理、可信的数值模拟,而沉降型化学品由于最终进
入沉积物而可能带来更大的潜在危险,故并在此基础上构建GIS支持下的海上溢
漏事故应急决策支持系统具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。
根据国际和国内在有关公约和法规方面的有关规定,在研究了化学品海
上运输对环境造成危害的基础上,从管理的角度出发分析建立相应的污染事
故应急反应体系的迫切性。
潮流场是影响化学品水中行为的主要因素。在分析国内外潮流模拟现状和发展
趋势的基础上,以珠江口为应用海域,用HAMSOM模式求解潮流场,并将预报结果
调和成调和常数存储,建立潮流场快速预报模式,并通过和实测数据的比较证明
了计算结果的合理性。分析近海水域环境污染扩散数值模拟的研究应用现状基础
上,根据沉降型化学品的性质及其在海上的行为特点,分别建立沉降型化学品行
为数值模拟的对流扩散方程模式和粒子拉格郎日迁移模式,确定求解方式并将其
软件化。
最后,选取珠海附近海域的一次化学品泄露事故为例,根据化学品泄漏的数量、
化学品的物理化学性质、珠江口的海洋环境条件等各种数据,对化学品泄漏后的
漂移扩散分别以求解对流扩散方程和粒子示踪的方式进行模拟,取得合理、快速
的预测结果,为事故的应急反应提供决策参考。
With the increasing transportation of liquid chemicals in bulk by ships, the risk of the chemicals spill is getting higher and higher. So the reasonable numerical modeling of the spilled chemicals at sea is a key technique for the risk assessment and contingency decision-making. The sinkable chemicals spilled at sea always ended in sediment, so the design of decision-making support system for sinkable chemicals spilled shipboard have academic and applied sense.Based on the analysis for the environmental harm caused by the transportation shipboard of chemicals and research on related ordain in the international common and intestine law , the paper analysis the impelling need of establishing related respond system for contaminative accident. After analyzing the character of sinkable chemicals and that of all action progress after this type of chemicals spilled into the sea, the paper established corresponding numerical model and programmed them.The tidal ground is the key factor who affect the action of spilled chemicals. Based on the analysis of the State-of-the-art numerical modeling on the tidal current, spreading of pollutant at sea. Then selected the Pearl River Estuary as the application region, simulated tidal ground using HAMSOM. Model, then calculated the tidal consistent constant and saved as map layer as the data for tidal fast prediction. The result of comparing the model result and investigative data indicated its rationality.Later applied the model in the numerical predication of sinkable chemicals spilled beside ZhuHai region. Inputted the quantity of spilled chemicals, the type of chemicals, the marine environmental background et al, then get physical and chemical character of the chemicals from database which had been established, simulated its action individual by all the model established for each progress. The result was showed in the GIS(geography information system) and indicated its rationality.
对海上泄漏化学品行为进行合理、可信的数值模拟,而沉降型化学品由于最终进
入沉积物而可能带来更大的潜在危险,故并在此基础上构建GIS支持下的海上溢
漏事故应急决策支持系统具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。
根据国际和国内在有关公约和法规方面的有关规定,在研究了化学品海
上运输对环境造成危害的基础上,从管理的角度出发分析建立相应的污染事
故应急反应体系的迫切性。
潮流场是影响化学品水中行为的主要因素。在分析国内外潮流模拟现状和发展
趋势的基础上,以珠江口为应用海域,用HAMSOM模式求解潮流场,并将预报结果
调和成调和常数存储,建立潮流场快速预报模式,并通过和实测数据的比较证明
了计算结果的合理性。分析近海水域环境污染扩散数值模拟的研究应用现状基础
上,根据沉降型化学品的性质及其在海上的行为特点,分别建立沉降型化学品行
为数值模拟的对流扩散方程模式和粒子拉格郎日迁移模式,确定求解方式并将其
软件化。
最后,选取珠海附近海域的一次化学品泄露事故为例,根据化学品泄漏的数量、
化学品的物理化学性质、珠江口的海洋环境条件等各种数据,对化学品泄漏后的
漂移扩散分别以求解对流扩散方程和粒子示踪的方式进行模拟,取得合理、快速
的预测结果,为事故的应急反应提供决策参考。
With the increasing transportation of liquid chemicals in bulk by ships, the risk of the chemicals spill is getting higher and higher. So the reasonable numerical modeling of the spilled chemicals at sea is a key technique for the risk assessment and contingency decision-making. The sinkable chemicals spilled at sea always ended in sediment, so the design of decision-making support system for sinkable chemicals spilled shipboard have academic and applied sense.Based on the analysis for the environmental harm caused by the transportation shipboard of chemicals and research on related ordain in the international common and intestine law , the paper analysis the impelling need of establishing related respond system for contaminative accident. After analyzing the character of sinkable chemicals and that of all action progress after this type of chemicals spilled into the sea, the paper established corresponding numerical model and programmed them.The tidal ground is the key factor who affect the action of spilled chemicals. Based on the analysis of the State-of-the-art numerical modeling on the tidal current, spreading of pollutant at sea. Then selected the Pearl River Estuary as the application region, simulated tidal ground using HAMSOM. Model, then calculated the tidal consistent constant and saved as map layer as the data for tidal fast prediction. The result of comparing the model result and investigative data indicated its rationality.Later applied the model in the numerical predication of sinkable chemicals spilled beside ZhuHai region. Inputted the quantity of spilled chemicals, the type of chemicals, the marine environmental background et al, then get physical and chemical character of the chemicals from database which had been established, simulated its action individual by all the model established for each progress. The result was showed in the GIS(geography information system) and indicated its rationality.
引文
[1] 刘斌、李凯,化学品船安全知识与操作,大连海事大学出版社,1999年,1-16
[2] 交通部海事局,沿海船舶载运有毒液体物质污染事故应急对策研究,2002年
[3] 张钦良,《海上危险品安全运输管理》,大连海运学院出版社,1993年第一版
[4] 交通部海事局统计数据
[5] 海关统计数据
[6] 《经1978年议定书修订的1973年国际防止船舶造成污染公约》
[7] MEPC.27(23) 液体物质的分类
[8] 《1990国际油污防备、反应和合作公约》
[9] 《1996年国际海上运输有害有毒物质损害责任和赔偿公约》
[10] 《国际散装运输危险化学品船舶构造和设备规则》
[11] 《中华人民共和国海洋环境保护法》
[12] IMO MEPC, MANUAL ON CHEMICAL POLLUTION
[13] Fay. J. A, Physical Processes in the Spread of Oil on a Water Surface, Proceeding of the Joint Conference on Prevention and Control of Oil Spill, American Petroleum Institution, Washington D. C. 463-467
[14] Mackay. D. W, Zagorski, Studies of Water-in-oil Emulsions, Report EE034, Eviroment Canada, Ottawa Ontario
[15] Scory S., Oil Spill Modeling, Lecture given at the University of Liege, Intensive course on modeling and management of marine system, 1984. 9. 3-22
[16] Anderson, E. L... The OILMAPWin/WOSM oil spill model: Application to hindcast a river spill[A]. In Proceeding of the 18th Arctic and Marine Oil Spill Program, Technical Seminar, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada: 1995. 793—817
[17] Leech, M., et al.., OSIS: A Windows Oil Spill Information System[A], In Proceeding of the 16th Arctic and Marine Oil Spill Program, Technical Seminar, Calgary, Alberta, Canada., 1983, 5(1):27-30
[18] Reed, M., N. Ekrol, H. Rye, and L. Turner. Oil Spill Contingency and Response (OSCAR) Analysis in Support of Environmental Impact Offshore Namibia[J]. Spill Science and Technology Bulletin, 1999, 5 (1): 29—38.
[19] 娄安刚,黄祖珂,海面溢油轨迹的分析与预报[J],青岛海洋大学学报,1994,24(4):477—484,
[20] 张波,中文Windows环境下的海上溢油预报系统[J],海洋环境科学,1997,16(1):37—41
[21] 陈时俊、孙文心、王化桐等,胶州湾环流和污染扩散的数值模拟Ⅱ污染物浓度的计算,《山东海洋学院学报》,1980,10(1)
[22] 窦振兴、罗远诠、黄克辛、张存智等,渤海湾潮流和潮余流的数值计算,《海洋学报》,1981,3(3)
[23] 窦振兴、罗远诠、黄克辛、张存智等,渤海湾污染物扩散的数值模拟,《海洋学报》,1982,4(6)
[24] 陆凤桐、黄耀兵,大连湾潮流和污染物扩散的数值计算,《海洋环境科学》,1998,7(4)&1989,8(2)
[25] 林建国,大连湾潮流及污染物扩散的数值模拟,《黄渤海海洋》,1990,8(1)
[26] 杜海涛,大连湾溶解、轻质、保守液体化学品溢漏后的归宿,大连海事大学,硕士研究生,2000年
[27] 朱国林,大连湾易溶保守液体化学品污染扩散的数值计算,大连海事大学,硕士研究生,1998年
[28] 江文胜、孙文心,渤海悬浮颗粒物的三维输运模式,《海洋与湖沼》,2001年第31卷第6期
[29] 叶安乐,李凤歧编著,物理海洋学,青岛海洋大学出版社,1992
[30] Vinenzo Casulli and Filippo Notamicola. An Eulerian-Langrangian method for tidal current computation. In:Computer Modelling in Ocean Engineering (Schrefler & Zienkiewicz, eds), Balkema, Rotterdam, 1988, 237-244
[31] 傅国伟编著.河流水质数学模型及其模拟计算,北京:中国环境出版社,1987
[32] Lin EN, Shen H W.2_D flow with sediment by characteristies method. Hyer Engrg ASCE. 1984, 110(5)615-626
[33] 赵隶华,戚晨,庚维德,徐稼华,裴中平,平面二维水流—水质有限体积法及黎曼近似解模型,水环境科学进展:Vol 11(4)368—374
[34] Anderson, P. L. Woodworth, R. A. Flather, Interecomprision of recent ocean tide models, J. Geophys, Res, 1998. 13(8):261-282
[35] 何少苓,龚振瀛等,隐式破开算子法在二维潮流计算中的应用,海洋学报,1985,7(2):225—232
[36] 李孟国,潮州港三维潮流模型研究,海洋通报:1995,4(6)1
[37] 江毓武,陈宗团,厦门港三维潮流数值模拟,海洋工程:1998,16(4)66—72
[38] 林建国,殷佩海,徐洪磊.预测海上溢油动态的快速算法,航海技术,船舶机电专业委员会论文集专刊:2000:13—23
[39] 雷孝平,朱国林,陆凤梧,大连湾潮流和潮位的数值计算,大连海事大学学报:1998:24(3)40-44
[40] 陈满春,厦门港潮流场的数值模拟,海洋通报,1997:16(3)13-20
[41] 陈玉霞,厦门西港潮汐潮流的数值计算,台湾海峡,1985:4(2)111-118
[42] 江毓武,张潞平,陈宗团,闽江口水动力和污染扩散数值模拟,台湾海峡:1997:16(2)169-173
[43] 王泽良,陶建华,缓坡潮间带海湾的污染物输移扩散数值模拟方法研究,海洋学报,1998:20(3)120-127
[44] 吴巍等,渤海局部海域风暴潮漫滩计算模式,海洋与湖沼,1995,27(2)149
[45] 温生辉,陈季良,厦门附近海域潮流场的数值模拟,海洋学报,1996:18(2)15-25
[46] 王泽良,陶建华,渤海湾流场及污染物分布的数值模拟研究,海洋与湖沼,1999:30(2)224-230
[47] Lynch and Gray. Finite element simulation of fluid in deforming region. J. Compute. Phys. 1980, 39, 135-153
[48] Johns B. SK Dube, P C Sinha, U C Mohanty and A D Rao. The simulation of a continuously deforming lateral boundary to problems involving the shallow water equation. Comput, Fluids, 1982, 10, 105-116
[49] 史峰岩,林文心,巍更生,运动侧边界海洋问题的自适应网格模拟方法,海洋 学报,1997,19(3)1-9
[50] Takisawa A, S Koshizuka and S Kondo. Generalization of physical component boundary fitted coordinate(PCBFC) method for the analysis of free-surface flow. Int. J. Numer; method Fluids; 1992, 15:1213-1237
[51] Backhaus, J. O., A semi-implicit scheme for the shallow water equations for application to shelf sea modeling. Continental Shelf Research[J], 1983, 4(2): 243-254
[52] Backhaus, J. O., On the atmospherically induced variability of the circulation of the northwest European shelf sea
[53] 刘桦,何有声,河口三维流动数学模型研究进展[J],海洋工程,1999,18(2):87-93
[54] 孙琪,孙效功,李瑞杰,窄缝法在河口区悬沙输运数值计算中的应用,海洋与湖沼,2001:32(3)298-301
[55] 魏皓、武建平、张平,海洋湍流模式应用研究,青岛海洋大学学报,2001:31(1)7—12
[56] 严世强,熊德琪.潮流数值模拟研究进展[J].浙江海洋学院学报.2001,21(3):263-268.
[2] 交通部海事局,沿海船舶载运有毒液体物质污染事故应急对策研究,2002年
[3] 张钦良,《海上危险品安全运输管理》,大连海运学院出版社,1993年第一版
[4] 交通部海事局统计数据
[5] 海关统计数据
[6] 《经1978年议定书修订的1973年国际防止船舶造成污染公约》
[7] MEPC.27(23) 液体物质的分类
[8] 《1990国际油污防备、反应和合作公约》
[9] 《1996年国际海上运输有害有毒物质损害责任和赔偿公约》
[10] 《国际散装运输危险化学品船舶构造和设备规则》
[11] 《中华人民共和国海洋环境保护法》
[12] IMO MEPC, MANUAL ON CHEMICAL POLLUTION
[13] Fay. J. A, Physical Processes in the Spread of Oil on a Water Surface, Proceeding of the Joint Conference on Prevention and Control of Oil Spill, American Petroleum Institution, Washington D. C. 463-467
[14] Mackay. D. W, Zagorski, Studies of Water-in-oil Emulsions, Report EE034, Eviroment Canada, Ottawa Ontario
[15] Scory S., Oil Spill Modeling, Lecture given at the University of Liege, Intensive course on modeling and management of marine system, 1984. 9. 3-22
[16] Anderson, E. L... The OILMAPWin/WOSM oil spill model: Application to hindcast a river spill[A]. In Proceeding of the 18th Arctic and Marine Oil Spill Program, Technical Seminar, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada: 1995. 793—817
[17] Leech, M., et al.., OSIS: A Windows Oil Spill Information System[A], In Proceeding of the 16th Arctic and Marine Oil Spill Program, Technical Seminar, Calgary, Alberta, Canada., 1983, 5(1):27-30
[18] Reed, M., N. Ekrol, H. Rye, and L. Turner. Oil Spill Contingency and Response (OSCAR) Analysis in Support of Environmental Impact Offshore Namibia[J]. Spill Science and Technology Bulletin, 1999, 5 (1): 29—38.
[19] 娄安刚,黄祖珂,海面溢油轨迹的分析与预报[J],青岛海洋大学学报,1994,24(4):477—484,
[20] 张波,中文Windows环境下的海上溢油预报系统[J],海洋环境科学,1997,16(1):37—41
[21] 陈时俊、孙文心、王化桐等,胶州湾环流和污染扩散的数值模拟Ⅱ污染物浓度的计算,《山东海洋学院学报》,1980,10(1)
[22] 窦振兴、罗远诠、黄克辛、张存智等,渤海湾潮流和潮余流的数值计算,《海洋学报》,1981,3(3)
[23] 窦振兴、罗远诠、黄克辛、张存智等,渤海湾污染物扩散的数值模拟,《海洋学报》,1982,4(6)
[24] 陆凤桐、黄耀兵,大连湾潮流和污染物扩散的数值计算,《海洋环境科学》,1998,7(4)&1989,8(2)
[25] 林建国,大连湾潮流及污染物扩散的数值模拟,《黄渤海海洋》,1990,8(1)
[26] 杜海涛,大连湾溶解、轻质、保守液体化学品溢漏后的归宿,大连海事大学,硕士研究生,2000年
[27] 朱国林,大连湾易溶保守液体化学品污染扩散的数值计算,大连海事大学,硕士研究生,1998年
[28] 江文胜、孙文心,渤海悬浮颗粒物的三维输运模式,《海洋与湖沼》,2001年第31卷第6期
[29] 叶安乐,李凤歧编著,物理海洋学,青岛海洋大学出版社,1992
[30] Vinenzo Casulli and Filippo Notamicola. An Eulerian-Langrangian method for tidal current computation. In:Computer Modelling in Ocean Engineering (Schrefler & Zienkiewicz, eds), Balkema, Rotterdam, 1988, 237-244
[31] 傅国伟编著.河流水质数学模型及其模拟计算,北京:中国环境出版社,1987
[32] Lin EN, Shen H W.2_D flow with sediment by characteristies method. Hyer Engrg ASCE. 1984, 110(5)615-626
[33] 赵隶华,戚晨,庚维德,徐稼华,裴中平,平面二维水流—水质有限体积法及黎曼近似解模型,水环境科学进展:Vol 11(4)368—374
[34] Anderson, P. L. Woodworth, R. A. Flather, Interecomprision of recent ocean tide models, J. Geophys, Res, 1998. 13(8):261-282
[35] 何少苓,龚振瀛等,隐式破开算子法在二维潮流计算中的应用,海洋学报,1985,7(2):225—232
[36] 李孟国,潮州港三维潮流模型研究,海洋通报:1995,4(6)1
[37] 江毓武,陈宗团,厦门港三维潮流数值模拟,海洋工程:1998,16(4)66—72
[38] 林建国,殷佩海,徐洪磊.预测海上溢油动态的快速算法,航海技术,船舶机电专业委员会论文集专刊:2000:13—23
[39] 雷孝平,朱国林,陆凤梧,大连湾潮流和潮位的数值计算,大连海事大学学报:1998:24(3)40-44
[40] 陈满春,厦门港潮流场的数值模拟,海洋通报,1997:16(3)13-20
[41] 陈玉霞,厦门西港潮汐潮流的数值计算,台湾海峡,1985:4(2)111-118
[42] 江毓武,张潞平,陈宗团,闽江口水动力和污染扩散数值模拟,台湾海峡:1997:16(2)169-173
[43] 王泽良,陶建华,缓坡潮间带海湾的污染物输移扩散数值模拟方法研究,海洋学报,1998:20(3)120-127
[44] 吴巍等,渤海局部海域风暴潮漫滩计算模式,海洋与湖沼,1995,27(2)149
[45] 温生辉,陈季良,厦门附近海域潮流场的数值模拟,海洋学报,1996:18(2)15-25
[46] 王泽良,陶建华,渤海湾流场及污染物分布的数值模拟研究,海洋与湖沼,1999:30(2)224-230
[47] Lynch and Gray. Finite element simulation of fluid in deforming region. J. Compute. Phys. 1980, 39, 135-153
[48] Johns B. SK Dube, P C Sinha, U C Mohanty and A D Rao. The simulation of a continuously deforming lateral boundary to problems involving the shallow water equation. Comput, Fluids, 1982, 10, 105-116
[49] 史峰岩,林文心,巍更生,运动侧边界海洋问题的自适应网格模拟方法,海洋 学报,1997,19(3)1-9
[50] Takisawa A, S Koshizuka and S Kondo. Generalization of physical component boundary fitted coordinate(PCBFC) method for the analysis of free-surface flow. Int. J. Numer; method Fluids; 1992, 15:1213-1237
[51] Backhaus, J. O., A semi-implicit scheme for the shallow water equations for application to shelf sea modeling. Continental Shelf Research[J], 1983, 4(2): 243-254
[52] Backhaus, J. O., On the atmospherically induced variability of the circulation of the northwest European shelf sea
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