城市化、人口结构变化对实际汇率的影响研究
摘要
世界人口结构正发生着转型变化。从年龄结构看,2010年世界60岁以上的人口达7.59亿,占总人口11%；发达国家60岁以上的人口比例为21.8%,15岁以下人口比例为10.9%；发展中国家(不包括极度落后国家)60岁以上的人口比例为9.3%,15岁以下人口比例为27.3%。随今后广大发展中国家和地区老龄人口的增加,世界人口老龄化程度会加剧,预计在本世纪中叶,世界人口中老年人口将占一半。从城市化看,联合国公布的数据显示2007年世界城市化率为49.4%,其中发达国家城市化率达到74.4%,而发展中国家仅为43.8%,预计2050年分别达到69.6%,86%和67%。从数据上看,欧美发达国家城市化进程已经稳定,而以中国为代表的发展中国家经济将长期面临着老龄化和城市化的影响。
已有研究表明人口年龄结构的变动和城市化的发展会导致生产率、储蓄、消费、资本以及就业等经济因素的变化,而这些经济因素又和实际汇率的长期变动趋势有着密切的联系。因此,从世界人口老龄化和城市化发展的角度来研究实际汇率也是很有必要的。本文的主旨就是试图为实际汇率变动的长期趋势提供一个城市化和老龄化角度的解释。
本文在已有研究的基础上,较为系统、全面地分析了城市化、人口老龄化同实际汇率之间的关系,探讨了世界不同地区的城市化率和人口年龄结构变动对实际汇率长期走势的影响,探讨了中国城市化与人口老龄化对人民币实际汇率走势的影响。
本文的研究内容包括以下几个方面：
第一,建立了反映城市化对实际汇率影响机制的理论模型,模型表明城市化能通过“需求结构效应”、“要素禀赋效应”和“巴拉萨-萨谬尔森效应(B-S效应)”从需求和供给两方面对实际汇率产生不同影响,并认为对于发达经济体和发展中经济体,城市化对实际汇率的影响渠道和效果是不同的。本文还利用欧洲、亚洲以及拉丁美洲若干国家和地区的面板数据对城市化与实际汇率的关系进行了实证分析,验证了本文的理论猜想。
第二,本文建立了反映人口年龄结构和实际汇率关系的两商品的跨期迭代模型,模型表明老年人口比例和儿童比例的变动,能通过消费渠道对一个经济体的物价产生影响从而对该经济体的实际汇率产生影响；本文还利用欧洲、亚洲以及拉丁美洲若干国家和地区的面板数据对人口年龄结构与实际汇率的关系进行了实证分析,发现老年人口比例和儿童人口比例的变化对实际汇率的影响都是显著的,而且二者之间存在着相互影响的现象,其具体表现同经济体的发展程度是有关联的。
第三,本文利用Leslie模型对未来中国的人口结构进行了预测,结果表明中国劳动人口比例自2009年起就开始呈逐年下降态势,并且在未来50年将一直持续下去,0-14岁、15-64岁以及65岁及以上人口比例将分别由2005年的17.8%、73.81%和8.43%变化为2050年的11.34%、59.89%和28.77%,该结果表明中国将在21世纪长期面临劳动力短缺和老龄化现象的困扰。此外还利用线性模型和Logistic模型对中国2000-2050年的城市化率进行了预测,结果表明中国城市化进程在经历1975-2010年的高速增长后,城市化速度将逐步放缓,预计在2050年达到80%左右。
第四,本文利用中国城市化和人口年龄结构的预测和历史数据对人民币兑美元的实际汇率走势进行了模拟与预测。利用LG模型对人民币实际汇率走势进行了模拟,发现该模型在1990年之前的模拟是比较准确的,然而在1990年之后则出现了比较大的偏差,这说明人口年龄结构和城市化对实际汇率的影响方式发生了结构性的变化。利用协整模型对人民币实际汇率走势进行了预测,结果表明,随着劳动人口比例的下降,老龄化程度的加深以及城市化率的不断提高,人民币兑美元的实际汇率将会出现长期升值趋势,至2050年将回到20世纪60年代的水平。
The world demographic structure is changing now. In the first place, in 2010, the world population above the age of 60 is 759 million, accounting for 11% of the total population; In developed country, the proportion of the population above the age of 60 of the total population is 21.8%, while the proportion of the population below the age of 15 of the total population is 10.9%.The corresponding in developing country (exclusive of extremely poor countries) are 9.3%and 27.3%. In the future, with the increasing of the ageing population in developed countries, the world's aging degree will aggravate, some researcher predicted that the proportion of the population above the age of 60 of the world total population will reach to 50%in the middle of the 21th century. In the second place, according to UN, in 2007, the world urbanization rate was 49.4%, while those of developed and developing countries respectively were 74.4%and 43.8%. The rate of world, developed and developing countries are predicted to be 69.6%,86%and 67%in 2050. The urbanization and aging problem will affect developing countries for a long time.
Studies have shown that the changing of age structure and the development of urbanization can lead to the changes of some economic factors-such as productivity, saving, consumption, capital and employment. And these economic factors relate to the long-term changeable trend of the real exchange rate. Therefore, the studying the real exchange rate from the analysis of urbanization and aging structure is very necessary. The purpose of this paper is to provide an urbanization and aging explanation to a long-term trend of real exchange rate changes.
On the basis of references to researched achievement, this paper takes methods of the combination of historical and comparative study,the combination of normative and empirical research, the combination of qualitative and quantitative research to comprehensive and systematic analysis the relation of urbanization,aging and the real exchange rate, and study the influence of the world urbanization rate and the changes of the age structure in the long-term changeable trend of the real exchange rate and the impact of the Chinese urbanization and aging population to the real exchange rate of RMB to USD.
The dissertation includes the following Parts:
First, the paper attempts to explain the long-term developing tendency of the real exchange rate from the analysis of urbanization effect. In this paper a theoretical model is firstly built up to reflect the mechanisms of urbanization influence on the real exchange rate. The model indicates that, from both demand and supply perspectives, urbanization will have different effects on the real exchange rate through three mechanisms, which include " demand structure effect ", " factor endowment effect " and " Balassa-Samuelson effect". Besides, comparing the developed economies and developing economies, the effect of urbanization on the real exchange rate are different in terms of the channels and outcome. Further, the theoretical assumption of the relation between the real exchange rate and urbanization is tested by using the panel data of Europe and Asia.
Second, in this paper a two products OLG model is built up to reflect the relation between the real exchange rate and the age structure. The model indicates that, in a economices, the changing in proportion of elderly people and younger will affect the real exchange rate through consumption. The empirical research indicates that the changes on proportion of elderly people and younger can significantly affect the real exchange rate, but the effects were different in different economices.
Third, this paper predicts the age structure of China with Leslie matrix. In China, the proportion of worker will decline from 2009 to 2050. In 2005, the proportions of 0-14, 15-64 and above the age of 65 were 17.8%,73.81% and 8.43%, while in 2050, the proportions respectively were 11.34%、59.89% and 28.77%. The result indicates that, the shortage of worker will trouble China for a long time. This paper also predicts the urbanization rate of China with linear model and logistic model. The results show that China urbanization process would gradually slow down after experiencing high-speed growth in 1975-2010. The urbanization rate is expected to reach 80% in 2050.
Forth, using prediction and historical data of urbanization and age structure in China, this paper fits and predicts the long-term developing tendency of the real exchange rate of RMB against the dollar. The effect of fitting with LG model has been good until 1990. It indicates that the methods with which the urbanization and age structure affect the real exchange rate of RMB has been changed. It predicts the long-term change of the real exchange rate of RMB against the dollar with cointegration model too. The result indicates that, with the decline of the proportion of the worker and the increase of the proportion of the elderly people in China, the real exchange rate of RMB against the dollar will appreciate for a long time, and it will reach the level of the 1960's until 2050.
已有研究表明人口年龄结构的变动和城市化的发展会导致生产率、储蓄、消费、资本以及就业等经济因素的变化,而这些经济因素又和实际汇率的长期变动趋势有着密切的联系。因此,从世界人口老龄化和城市化发展的角度来研究实际汇率也是很有必要的。本文的主旨就是试图为实际汇率变动的长期趋势提供一个城市化和老龄化角度的解释。
本文在已有研究的基础上,较为系统、全面地分析了城市化、人口老龄化同实际汇率之间的关系,探讨了世界不同地区的城市化率和人口年龄结构变动对实际汇率长期走势的影响,探讨了中国城市化与人口老龄化对人民币实际汇率走势的影响。
本文的研究内容包括以下几个方面：
第一,建立了反映城市化对实际汇率影响机制的理论模型,模型表明城市化能通过“需求结构效应”、“要素禀赋效应”和“巴拉萨-萨谬尔森效应(B-S效应)”从需求和供给两方面对实际汇率产生不同影响,并认为对于发达经济体和发展中经济体,城市化对实际汇率的影响渠道和效果是不同的。本文还利用欧洲、亚洲以及拉丁美洲若干国家和地区的面板数据对城市化与实际汇率的关系进行了实证分析,验证了本文的理论猜想。
第二,本文建立了反映人口年龄结构和实际汇率关系的两商品的跨期迭代模型,模型表明老年人口比例和儿童比例的变动,能通过消费渠道对一个经济体的物价产生影响从而对该经济体的实际汇率产生影响；本文还利用欧洲、亚洲以及拉丁美洲若干国家和地区的面板数据对人口年龄结构与实际汇率的关系进行了实证分析,发现老年人口比例和儿童人口比例的变化对实际汇率的影响都是显著的,而且二者之间存在着相互影响的现象,其具体表现同经济体的发展程度是有关联的。
第三,本文利用Leslie模型对未来中国的人口结构进行了预测,结果表明中国劳动人口比例自2009年起就开始呈逐年下降态势,并且在未来50年将一直持续下去,0-14岁、15-64岁以及65岁及以上人口比例将分别由2005年的17.8%、73.81%和8.43%变化为2050年的11.34%、59.89%和28.77%,该结果表明中国将在21世纪长期面临劳动力短缺和老龄化现象的困扰。此外还利用线性模型和Logistic模型对中国2000-2050年的城市化率进行了预测,结果表明中国城市化进程在经历1975-2010年的高速增长后,城市化速度将逐步放缓,预计在2050年达到80%左右。
第四,本文利用中国城市化和人口年龄结构的预测和历史数据对人民币兑美元的实际汇率走势进行了模拟与预测。利用LG模型对人民币实际汇率走势进行了模拟,发现该模型在1990年之前的模拟是比较准确的,然而在1990年之后则出现了比较大的偏差,这说明人口年龄结构和城市化对实际汇率的影响方式发生了结构性的变化。利用协整模型对人民币实际汇率走势进行了预测,结果表明,随着劳动人口比例的下降,老龄化程度的加深以及城市化率的不断提高,人民币兑美元的实际汇率将会出现长期升值趋势,至2050年将回到20世纪60年代的水平。
The world demographic structure is changing now. In the first place, in 2010, the world population above the age of 60 is 759 million, accounting for 11% of the total population; In developed country, the proportion of the population above the age of 60 of the total population is 21.8%, while the proportion of the population below the age of 15 of the total population is 10.9%.The corresponding in developing country (exclusive of extremely poor countries) are 9.3%and 27.3%. In the future, with the increasing of the ageing population in developed countries, the world's aging degree will aggravate, some researcher predicted that the proportion of the population above the age of 60 of the world total population will reach to 50%in the middle of the 21th century. In the second place, according to UN, in 2007, the world urbanization rate was 49.4%, while those of developed and developing countries respectively were 74.4%and 43.8%. The rate of world, developed and developing countries are predicted to be 69.6%,86%and 67%in 2050. The urbanization and aging problem will affect developing countries for a long time.
Studies have shown that the changing of age structure and the development of urbanization can lead to the changes of some economic factors-such as productivity, saving, consumption, capital and employment. And these economic factors relate to the long-term changeable trend of the real exchange rate. Therefore, the studying the real exchange rate from the analysis of urbanization and aging structure is very necessary. The purpose of this paper is to provide an urbanization and aging explanation to a long-term trend of real exchange rate changes.
On the basis of references to researched achievement, this paper takes methods of the combination of historical and comparative study,the combination of normative and empirical research, the combination of qualitative and quantitative research to comprehensive and systematic analysis the relation of urbanization,aging and the real exchange rate, and study the influence of the world urbanization rate and the changes of the age structure in the long-term changeable trend of the real exchange rate and the impact of the Chinese urbanization and aging population to the real exchange rate of RMB to USD.
The dissertation includes the following Parts:
First, the paper attempts to explain the long-term developing tendency of the real exchange rate from the analysis of urbanization effect. In this paper a theoretical model is firstly built up to reflect the mechanisms of urbanization influence on the real exchange rate. The model indicates that, from both demand and supply perspectives, urbanization will have different effects on the real exchange rate through three mechanisms, which include " demand structure effect ", " factor endowment effect " and " Balassa-Samuelson effect". Besides, comparing the developed economies and developing economies, the effect of urbanization on the real exchange rate are different in terms of the channels and outcome. Further, the theoretical assumption of the relation between the real exchange rate and urbanization is tested by using the panel data of Europe and Asia.
Second, in this paper a two products OLG model is built up to reflect the relation between the real exchange rate and the age structure. The model indicates that, in a economices, the changing in proportion of elderly people and younger will affect the real exchange rate through consumption. The empirical research indicates that the changes on proportion of elderly people and younger can significantly affect the real exchange rate, but the effects were different in different economices.
Third, this paper predicts the age structure of China with Leslie matrix. In China, the proportion of worker will decline from 2009 to 2050. In 2005, the proportions of 0-14, 15-64 and above the age of 65 were 17.8%,73.81% and 8.43%, while in 2050, the proportions respectively were 11.34%、59.89% and 28.77%. The result indicates that, the shortage of worker will trouble China for a long time. This paper also predicts the urbanization rate of China with linear model and logistic model. The results show that China urbanization process would gradually slow down after experiencing high-speed growth in 1975-2010. The urbanization rate is expected to reach 80% in 2050.
Forth, using prediction and historical data of urbanization and age structure in China, this paper fits and predicts the long-term developing tendency of the real exchange rate of RMB against the dollar. The effect of fitting with LG model has been good until 1990. It indicates that the methods with which the urbanization and age structure affect the real exchange rate of RMB has been changed. It predicts the long-term change of the real exchange rate of RMB against the dollar with cointegration model too. The result indicates that, with the decline of the proportion of the worker and the increase of the proportion of the elderly people in China, the real exchange rate of RMB against the dollar will appreciate for a long time, and it will reach the level of the 1960's until 2050.
引文
1数据来源：联合国网站数据。
2数据水源：联合国World Urbanization Prospects:The 2007 Revision
3数据来源：江正茂,2010人民日报海外版《中国城市化水平达45.68%》
4吴忠观.人口学[M].重庆：重庆大学出版社,2005,p348-349
5吴忠观.人口学[M].重庆：重庆大学出版社,2005,p360
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2数据水源：联合国World Urbanization Prospects:The 2007 Revision
3数据来源：江正茂,2010人民日报海外版《中国城市化水平达45.68%》
4吴忠观.人口学[M].重庆：重庆大学出版社,2005,p348-349
5吴忠观.人口学[M].重庆：重庆大学出版社,2005,p360
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