自由贸易与环境污染：理论分析与中国的实证研究
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摘要
伴随经济全球化和贸易自由化的发展,环境污染问题也日益成为世界各国普遍关注的焦点问题之一。虽然国际组织和有关专家对自由贸易与环境污染问题进行了大量的研究,并取得了一些有价值的研究成果,但关键问题尚未得出明确的结论,需要进一步的理论研究和经验分析来验证和回答。同时,国际社会中与环境有关的贸易争端也越来越多,不仅影响了自由贸易的正常发展,也不利于全球的环境保护。因此,如何处理贸易与环境二者的关系已经成为国际社会面临的一项迫切任务。
我国改革开放三十多年来经济持续高速发展,其中对外贸易发挥了举足轻重的作用。与此同时,我国面临的与贸易有关的环境污染问题也越来越突出。长期以来我国的对外贸易实行粗放式的发展模式,出口产品以资源密集型和污染密集型产品为主,不但消耗了大量资源,还导致了越来越严重的环境污染。自然资源的过度消耗和环境污染日趋严重成为中国经济、贸易高速发展的代价。因此,如何在实现贸易自由化的同时又不断促进环境保护,对我国今后转变经济发展模式和构建和谐社会具有极其深远的意义。
本文在国内外现有研究成果的基础上,对自由贸易与环境污染这一命题展开了较为系统和深入的理论分析和针对中国现实的实证检验。首先通过构建一般均衡的贸易与污染排放模型,建立了基本的理论分析框架,并在此基础上探讨了自由贸易对一国环境的影响,随后分析了环境政策和要素禀赋及其相互作用所造成的贸易自由化过程中的环境影响。在此之后,选取相关数据对我国对外贸易与环境污染的关系进行统计描述分析和计量检验,得出了对外贸易对我国环境污染影响的现状与特点。最后对全文作出总结并提出我国对外贸易与环境保护协调发展的对策。
本文的结构安排如下：
第一章为导论。首先,论述了文章的选题背景与研究意义。其次,提出文章的研究思路和研究内容。最后,介绍文章的主要创新之处和存在的不足。
第二章对国内外贸易与环境问题的研究进展进行了回顾和评述。发现目前对贸易与环境问题的研究尚处于一种零散的探索状态,尚缺乏一个完整、系统的研究思路和体系。因此,亟须把贸易与环境相关问题的研究进行梳理与整合,探讨其中各个要素之间的关系并形成一套完整的研究思路、体系和方法。
第三章主要研究了小国开放经济中的环境污染问题。构建了一个两部门的一般均衡贸易与污染排放模型,该模型把相对要素禀赋与国际贸易模式联系到了一起,从把污染看成生产过程中的一种副产品开始,一直到利用污染需求供给框架探讨最优污染政策为止,逐步详尽阐释了模型的理论结构。该章的定义和公式在随后章节的理论分析中均要用到,因此是后续分析的理论基础。
第四章在第三章基础上进一步分析了自由贸易对一国环境的影响。发现贸易自由化对环境是否有害,一方面取决于政策体制：自由贸易本身并不会导致环境问题,不当的环境政策才会导致环境问题。如果环境政策体制适宜,贸易的进一步自由化并不必然会对环境造成不利影响。另一方面,如果实际收入水平与环境质量水平之间存在相互消长关系,那么即使贸易自由化导致污染排放水平上升、环境质量下降,也完全有可能是有利于福利水平提升的；而导致污染排放水平下降的贸易自由化,也完全有可能导致福利水平恶化。也就是说：贸易自由化使得污染排放水平下降并不必然是有利的,而使得污染排放水平上升也并不必然是有害的。
第五章对环境政策和要素禀赋及其相互作用对污染排放的影响作了理论探讨。研究表明如果环境污染监管政策并未完全反映污染排放的外部性,或者污染排放监管政策并未得到强制性执行,则此种条件下的自由贸易不论是对消费者个体还是对整体的环境状况都是不利的。并且,贫困国家相对富裕国家倾向于实施更加宽松的环境监管政策,自由贸易促使污染型产业向贫困国家转移,完全有可能对贫困国家造成损害。
当各国同时在污染排放政策以及要素禀赋上具有差异时,比较优势由污染排放政策以及要素禀赋两个方面的差异共同决定,在要素禀赋能够影响自由贸易的情况下,“污染避难所”假说模型中的大多数结论都可能被推翻。高收入国家即使具有严格得多的污染排放监管政策,如果由此导致的成本劣势能够被其他因素所弥补,也完全有可能在污染型产业上具备比较优势。但如果要素禀赋的不同不足以抵消环境监管差异所引致的成本差异时,其结论与“污染避难所”假说模型中所获得的结论是一致的。
对某些产业而言,要素禀赋效应可能增强污染排放政策所引起的效应。如果污染型产业是密集使用低收入国家相对丰裕的非熟练劳动力或自然资源的产业,则污染型产业会转移到这些具有要素禀赋优势而且环境监管相对宽松的国家。因此,各国在环境政策以及要素禀赋上的差异,随着产业特性的不同,其相互作用的机理及其在决定国际贸易模式中所起的作用也存在差异。
第六章主要对我国目前对外贸易与环境污染的现状进行了描述性统计,主要分析了贸易规模、贸易结构和外商直接投资与环境污染的关系以及我国对外贸易市场结构特点。我国出口行业多为污染密集型行业,其中纺织业、皮革毛皮羽毛(绒)及其制品业、机械电器电子设备制造业以及金属制品业对环境的影响较大。我国的出口市场分布主要集中在欧盟、美国、日本这些环境标准较为严格和完善的国家和地区,使得我国的出口产品遭到日益严重的绿色贸易壁垒。目前我国的某些污染密集型行业,不但在对外贸易过程中处于较大的顺差状态,而且还存在环境成本向我国境内转移的迹象。另外,这些污染密集型的行业也均是外商直接投资参与度极高的行业。
第七章选取我国的相关数据对贸易与环境污染关系进行了计量分析。基于时间序列的分析表明,自1985年以来我国外贸依存度和外资依存度的提高均带来了环境负效应。基于面板数据模型的分析表明,自2000年以来规模效应加剧了我国整体的环境污染,技术效应减少了东部地区的环境污染,结构效应增加了东部和中部地区的环境污染但减少了西部地区的环境污染。总的来说,贸易开放度的提高对东部环境质量的改善有积极影响,但对中西部地区有负面影响,中西部地区确实存在“污染天堂”的现象。从行业层面来看,我国对外贸易对环境负面影响较大的行业依次是纺织业、皮革毛皮羽毛(绒)及其制品业、食品饮料烟草制造业、机械电器电子设备制造业和黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业。环境政策差异对中美贸易影响的研究表明,美国环境管制的相对严格化使得我国污染密集型行业生产的产品在中美贸易顺差中扮演了重要角色,从而使我国承担了更多的环境成本。
第八章是结论和政策建议。本章对全文作出总结并针对我国对外贸易中存在的环境污染问题,提出了我国对外贸易与环境保护协调发展的政策建议。
With the development of economic globalization and trade liberalization, the environmental pollution has become an important world problem. International organizations and experts have conducted a large amount of researches on the free trade and environmental pollution problem and made some valuable research achievements, but some aspects of the problem have not draw clear conclusions and need further research and practice to verify. At the same time, environment related trade disputes are increasing in the international community. These disputes not only affect the normal development of the international trade, but also go against the global environmental protection. Therefore, the coordination between the free trade and environmental protection has become an urgent task that the international community must be confronted.
The foreign trade has played a pivotal role on the rapid growth of economy during thirty years of China's reform and opening up. Meanwhile, China's trade-related environmental pollution has become more and more severe. China's foreign trade neglects the sustainable development and executes an extensive model of development for a long time. China's export products are mostly resource-intensive and pollution-intensive products. These products not only use a lot of resources, but also cause the increasingly serious environmental pollution. Natural resources excessive consumption and environment pollution become the price of high-speed development of the economy and trade. Therefore, how to promote the trade liberalization and environmental protection has extremely profound significance for China's transformation of the economic development mode and building a harmonious society
Based on the existing research results, the dissertation makes a relatively systematic and in-depth discussion on the problem of free trade and China's environmental pollution. In the theoretical analysis, we first establish a theoretical analysis framework by constructing a general equilibrium model of trade and environment pollution. Based on this model, we discuss the effects of free trade on one country's environmental pollution. Then we analyze the environmental impacts during the trade liberalization caused by the environmental policy and factor endowments differences. In the empirical analysis, we use the latest data describe the relationship between China's foreign trade and environment pollution statistically and then make an econometric analysis. Finally we make conclusions and propose some recommendations for the coordination development between our country's foreign trade and environment protection.
The dissertation's structure arrangement is as follows:
The first chapter is an introduction. Firstly, we discuss the background and significance of the research. Secondly, we put forward the research ideas contents. Finally, we introduce the main innovation and deficiency in this dissertation.
In the second chapter, we review the research progress in domestic and abroad about the trade and environment issues and then make a comment. At present, the researches of trade and environment are still in a scattered exploring state, and lack of a complete research system. Therefore, we should gather up the threads related the trade and environment issues, and discuss the relationship between the various elements, and then form a complete analytical framework. Eventually we can promote harmonious development of trade and environment.
In the third chapter, we study the environmental pollution in a small open economy. We construct a two department general equilibrium model of trade and environment pollution. This model links the factor endowments with the international trade pattern. First we put pollution as a by-product of production process. Then we use the pollution demand and supply model to discuss the optimal pollution policy. We gradually interpret theory structure of the model detailed. The definition and formula of this chapter are used in the subsequent analysis. So this chapter is a theory basis of the further analysis.
In the fourth chapter, we analyze the effects of free trade on a country's environmental quality. That the trade liberalization is harmful to the environment is uncertain. On the one hand it depends on the policy system. The free trade itself will not lead to environmental problems, but the improper environmental policies will lead to environmental problems. If environmental policy system is appropriate, further liberalization of trade is not necessarily cause adverse effect on the environment. On the other hand, if there does exist a reciprocal relationship between the actual income level and environmental quality, so even if the trade liberalization cause pollution emission levels rise and environmental degradation, it fully may be beneficial to the welfare level. However the trade liberalization that causes pollution emission levels dropped may cause the welfare level deteriorated completely. In other words, that the trade liberalization makes pollution emission levels decline is not necessarily beneficial, and that the trade liberalization makes pollution emission levels raise is not necessarily harmful.
In the fifth chapter, we discuss the effects of the environmental policy and factor endowments differences on pollution emission. The results show that if environmental pollution regulatory policy has not fully reflected emission's externality, or pollution emission supervision policy has not been compulsory execution, the international trade is harmful to both individual and the environment in this kind of condition. Poor countries are tending to implement laxer environmental regulatory policies than rich countries. International trade promotes polluting industries to transfer to poor countries, and that may cause damage to poor countries ultimately. If every country has differences both in pollution regulatory policy and factor endowments, the comparative advantage is decided by both the pollution regulatory policy and the factor endowments differences. If factor endowments can affect international trade, the conclusions of pollution haven hypothesis model may be overridden. If the cost disadvantage can be compensated for by other factors, the high-income countries may have comparative advantage in polluting industries also at the condition of having stringent pollution emission regulatory policies than other countries. Of course, if the differences of factor endowments can not enough to offset the cost differences caused by environmental regulatory, the conclusions we get is consistent with those in pollution haven mode. For some industries, and the effects of the endowments may enhance the effects caused by pollution emissions policies. If the polluting industries intensively use abundant unskilled labor or natural resources in low-income countries, the polluting industries will be transferred to these countries with these advantages of factor endowments and relatively loose environmental supervision. Therefore, considering the different characteristics of every industry, both the interaction of environmental policies and factor endowments in every country and the role those determining the international trade patterns are different also.
In the sixth chapter, we analyze the current situation of China's foreign trade and environmental pollution using descriptive statistics analysis method. We mainly describe the relationship between the trade scale, the trade structure, foreign direct investment and environmental pollution. We also discuss the characteristics of China's trade market structure. China's majority export industries are pollution intensive. The industries those are most harmful to the environment include textiles industry, leather and fur industry, mechanical manufacturing industry, electrical and electronic equipment manufacturing industry, fabricated metal products industry. China's export markets are too centralized, especially concentrated in the countries and regions such as EU, US and Japan. Those countries' environmental standards are more stringent and perfect, so our exports confront serious green trade barriers. At present, China's pollution intensive industries those existing the trade surplus and the transfer of environmental cost are high participation industries of FDI.
Chapter VII is econometric analysis of the relation between the trade and environment pollution using China's related data. Based on the time series analysis, the results show that, the increase of foreign trade dependence and foreign investment dependence brings negative environmental impacts since 1985. Based on the analysis of panel data model during 2000～2008, the results show that the scale effect increases the environmental pollution and technical effect reduces the environmental pollution of the eastern region. Structure effect increases environmental pollution of eastern and central regions, but reduces environmental pollution of western region. On the whole, the openness of trade has a positive effect on the eastern region, but it has a negative effect on central and western regions. "Pollution heaven" phenomenon does exist in central and western regions. From industry level, China's foreign trade industries those bring greater negative impacts on environment than others respectively is textile industry, leather and fur industry, food, beverage and tobacco manufacturing industry, mechanical, electrical and electronic equipment manufacturing industry, black metal smelting industry, rolling processing industry. The study on the impacts of environmental policy differences on Sino-US trade shows that there exists relatively stable correlation between Sino-US environment regulation index and import-export index. The relative severization of the United States's environmental regulation led our pollution intensive products play a significant role in Sino-US trade surplus. China undertakes more environmental cost in the Sino-US trade.
Chapter VIII is the conclusion of this dissertation and policy recommendations. This chapter makes a summary of full text. According to the environmental pollution problems existed in China's foreign trade progress, the author puts forward the policy framework for the coordinated development of China's foreign trade and environmental protection.
我国改革开放三十多年来经济持续高速发展,其中对外贸易发挥了举足轻重的作用。与此同时,我国面临的与贸易有关的环境污染问题也越来越突出。长期以来我国的对外贸易实行粗放式的发展模式,出口产品以资源密集型和污染密集型产品为主,不但消耗了大量资源,还导致了越来越严重的环境污染。自然资源的过度消耗和环境污染日趋严重成为中国经济、贸易高速发展的代价。因此,如何在实现贸易自由化的同时又不断促进环境保护,对我国今后转变经济发展模式和构建和谐社会具有极其深远的意义。
本文在国内外现有研究成果的基础上,对自由贸易与环境污染这一命题展开了较为系统和深入的理论分析和针对中国现实的实证检验。首先通过构建一般均衡的贸易与污染排放模型,建立了基本的理论分析框架,并在此基础上探讨了自由贸易对一国环境的影响,随后分析了环境政策和要素禀赋及其相互作用所造成的贸易自由化过程中的环境影响。在此之后,选取相关数据对我国对外贸易与环境污染的关系进行统计描述分析和计量检验,得出了对外贸易对我国环境污染影响的现状与特点。最后对全文作出总结并提出我国对外贸易与环境保护协调发展的对策。
本文的结构安排如下：
第一章为导论。首先,论述了文章的选题背景与研究意义。其次,提出文章的研究思路和研究内容。最后,介绍文章的主要创新之处和存在的不足。
第二章对国内外贸易与环境问题的研究进展进行了回顾和评述。发现目前对贸易与环境问题的研究尚处于一种零散的探索状态,尚缺乏一个完整、系统的研究思路和体系。因此,亟须把贸易与环境相关问题的研究进行梳理与整合,探讨其中各个要素之间的关系并形成一套完整的研究思路、体系和方法。
第三章主要研究了小国开放经济中的环境污染问题。构建了一个两部门的一般均衡贸易与污染排放模型,该模型把相对要素禀赋与国际贸易模式联系到了一起,从把污染看成生产过程中的一种副产品开始,一直到利用污染需求供给框架探讨最优污染政策为止,逐步详尽阐释了模型的理论结构。该章的定义和公式在随后章节的理论分析中均要用到,因此是后续分析的理论基础。
第四章在第三章基础上进一步分析了自由贸易对一国环境的影响。发现贸易自由化对环境是否有害,一方面取决于政策体制：自由贸易本身并不会导致环境问题,不当的环境政策才会导致环境问题。如果环境政策体制适宜,贸易的进一步自由化并不必然会对环境造成不利影响。另一方面,如果实际收入水平与环境质量水平之间存在相互消长关系,那么即使贸易自由化导致污染排放水平上升、环境质量下降,也完全有可能是有利于福利水平提升的；而导致污染排放水平下降的贸易自由化,也完全有可能导致福利水平恶化。也就是说：贸易自由化使得污染排放水平下降并不必然是有利的,而使得污染排放水平上升也并不必然是有害的。
第五章对环境政策和要素禀赋及其相互作用对污染排放的影响作了理论探讨。研究表明如果环境污染监管政策并未完全反映污染排放的外部性,或者污染排放监管政策并未得到强制性执行,则此种条件下的自由贸易不论是对消费者个体还是对整体的环境状况都是不利的。并且,贫困国家相对富裕国家倾向于实施更加宽松的环境监管政策,自由贸易促使污染型产业向贫困国家转移,完全有可能对贫困国家造成损害。
当各国同时在污染排放政策以及要素禀赋上具有差异时,比较优势由污染排放政策以及要素禀赋两个方面的差异共同决定,在要素禀赋能够影响自由贸易的情况下,“污染避难所”假说模型中的大多数结论都可能被推翻。高收入国家即使具有严格得多的污染排放监管政策,如果由此导致的成本劣势能够被其他因素所弥补,也完全有可能在污染型产业上具备比较优势。但如果要素禀赋的不同不足以抵消环境监管差异所引致的成本差异时,其结论与“污染避难所”假说模型中所获得的结论是一致的。
对某些产业而言,要素禀赋效应可能增强污染排放政策所引起的效应。如果污染型产业是密集使用低收入国家相对丰裕的非熟练劳动力或自然资源的产业,则污染型产业会转移到这些具有要素禀赋优势而且环境监管相对宽松的国家。因此,各国在环境政策以及要素禀赋上的差异,随着产业特性的不同,其相互作用的机理及其在决定国际贸易模式中所起的作用也存在差异。
第六章主要对我国目前对外贸易与环境污染的现状进行了描述性统计,主要分析了贸易规模、贸易结构和外商直接投资与环境污染的关系以及我国对外贸易市场结构特点。我国出口行业多为污染密集型行业,其中纺织业、皮革毛皮羽毛(绒)及其制品业、机械电器电子设备制造业以及金属制品业对环境的影响较大。我国的出口市场分布主要集中在欧盟、美国、日本这些环境标准较为严格和完善的国家和地区,使得我国的出口产品遭到日益严重的绿色贸易壁垒。目前我国的某些污染密集型行业,不但在对外贸易过程中处于较大的顺差状态,而且还存在环境成本向我国境内转移的迹象。另外,这些污染密集型的行业也均是外商直接投资参与度极高的行业。
第七章选取我国的相关数据对贸易与环境污染关系进行了计量分析。基于时间序列的分析表明,自1985年以来我国外贸依存度和外资依存度的提高均带来了环境负效应。基于面板数据模型的分析表明,自2000年以来规模效应加剧了我国整体的环境污染,技术效应减少了东部地区的环境污染,结构效应增加了东部和中部地区的环境污染但减少了西部地区的环境污染。总的来说,贸易开放度的提高对东部环境质量的改善有积极影响,但对中西部地区有负面影响,中西部地区确实存在“污染天堂”的现象。从行业层面来看,我国对外贸易对环境负面影响较大的行业依次是纺织业、皮革毛皮羽毛(绒)及其制品业、食品饮料烟草制造业、机械电器电子设备制造业和黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业。环境政策差异对中美贸易影响的研究表明,美国环境管制的相对严格化使得我国污染密集型行业生产的产品在中美贸易顺差中扮演了重要角色,从而使我国承担了更多的环境成本。
第八章是结论和政策建议。本章对全文作出总结并针对我国对外贸易中存在的环境污染问题,提出了我国对外贸易与环境保护协调发展的政策建议。
With the development of economic globalization and trade liberalization, the environmental pollution has become an important world problem. International organizations and experts have conducted a large amount of researches on the free trade and environmental pollution problem and made some valuable research achievements, but some aspects of the problem have not draw clear conclusions and need further research and practice to verify. At the same time, environment related trade disputes are increasing in the international community. These disputes not only affect the normal development of the international trade, but also go against the global environmental protection. Therefore, the coordination between the free trade and environmental protection has become an urgent task that the international community must be confronted.
The foreign trade has played a pivotal role on the rapid growth of economy during thirty years of China's reform and opening up. Meanwhile, China's trade-related environmental pollution has become more and more severe. China's foreign trade neglects the sustainable development and executes an extensive model of development for a long time. China's export products are mostly resource-intensive and pollution-intensive products. These products not only use a lot of resources, but also cause the increasingly serious environmental pollution. Natural resources excessive consumption and environment pollution become the price of high-speed development of the economy and trade. Therefore, how to promote the trade liberalization and environmental protection has extremely profound significance for China's transformation of the economic development mode and building a harmonious society
Based on the existing research results, the dissertation makes a relatively systematic and in-depth discussion on the problem of free trade and China's environmental pollution. In the theoretical analysis, we first establish a theoretical analysis framework by constructing a general equilibrium model of trade and environment pollution. Based on this model, we discuss the effects of free trade on one country's environmental pollution. Then we analyze the environmental impacts during the trade liberalization caused by the environmental policy and factor endowments differences. In the empirical analysis, we use the latest data describe the relationship between China's foreign trade and environment pollution statistically and then make an econometric analysis. Finally we make conclusions and propose some recommendations for the coordination development between our country's foreign trade and environment protection.
The dissertation's structure arrangement is as follows:
The first chapter is an introduction. Firstly, we discuss the background and significance of the research. Secondly, we put forward the research ideas contents. Finally, we introduce the main innovation and deficiency in this dissertation.
In the second chapter, we review the research progress in domestic and abroad about the trade and environment issues and then make a comment. At present, the researches of trade and environment are still in a scattered exploring state, and lack of a complete research system. Therefore, we should gather up the threads related the trade and environment issues, and discuss the relationship between the various elements, and then form a complete analytical framework. Eventually we can promote harmonious development of trade and environment.
In the third chapter, we study the environmental pollution in a small open economy. We construct a two department general equilibrium model of trade and environment pollution. This model links the factor endowments with the international trade pattern. First we put pollution as a by-product of production process. Then we use the pollution demand and supply model to discuss the optimal pollution policy. We gradually interpret theory structure of the model detailed. The definition and formula of this chapter are used in the subsequent analysis. So this chapter is a theory basis of the further analysis.
In the fourth chapter, we analyze the effects of free trade on a country's environmental quality. That the trade liberalization is harmful to the environment is uncertain. On the one hand it depends on the policy system. The free trade itself will not lead to environmental problems, but the improper environmental policies will lead to environmental problems. If environmental policy system is appropriate, further liberalization of trade is not necessarily cause adverse effect on the environment. On the other hand, if there does exist a reciprocal relationship between the actual income level and environmental quality, so even if the trade liberalization cause pollution emission levels rise and environmental degradation, it fully may be beneficial to the welfare level. However the trade liberalization that causes pollution emission levels dropped may cause the welfare level deteriorated completely. In other words, that the trade liberalization makes pollution emission levels decline is not necessarily beneficial, and that the trade liberalization makes pollution emission levels raise is not necessarily harmful.
In the fifth chapter, we discuss the effects of the environmental policy and factor endowments differences on pollution emission. The results show that if environmental pollution regulatory policy has not fully reflected emission's externality, or pollution emission supervision policy has not been compulsory execution, the international trade is harmful to both individual and the environment in this kind of condition. Poor countries are tending to implement laxer environmental regulatory policies than rich countries. International trade promotes polluting industries to transfer to poor countries, and that may cause damage to poor countries ultimately. If every country has differences both in pollution regulatory policy and factor endowments, the comparative advantage is decided by both the pollution regulatory policy and the factor endowments differences. If factor endowments can affect international trade, the conclusions of pollution haven hypothesis model may be overridden. If the cost disadvantage can be compensated for by other factors, the high-income countries may have comparative advantage in polluting industries also at the condition of having stringent pollution emission regulatory policies than other countries. Of course, if the differences of factor endowments can not enough to offset the cost differences caused by environmental regulatory, the conclusions we get is consistent with those in pollution haven mode. For some industries, and the effects of the endowments may enhance the effects caused by pollution emissions policies. If the polluting industries intensively use abundant unskilled labor or natural resources in low-income countries, the polluting industries will be transferred to these countries with these advantages of factor endowments and relatively loose environmental supervision. Therefore, considering the different characteristics of every industry, both the interaction of environmental policies and factor endowments in every country and the role those determining the international trade patterns are different also.
In the sixth chapter, we analyze the current situation of China's foreign trade and environmental pollution using descriptive statistics analysis method. We mainly describe the relationship between the trade scale, the trade structure, foreign direct investment and environmental pollution. We also discuss the characteristics of China's trade market structure. China's majority export industries are pollution intensive. The industries those are most harmful to the environment include textiles industry, leather and fur industry, mechanical manufacturing industry, electrical and electronic equipment manufacturing industry, fabricated metal products industry. China's export markets are too centralized, especially concentrated in the countries and regions such as EU, US and Japan. Those countries' environmental standards are more stringent and perfect, so our exports confront serious green trade barriers. At present, China's pollution intensive industries those existing the trade surplus and the transfer of environmental cost are high participation industries of FDI.
Chapter VII is econometric analysis of the relation between the trade and environment pollution using China's related data. Based on the time series analysis, the results show that, the increase of foreign trade dependence and foreign investment dependence brings negative environmental impacts since 1985. Based on the analysis of panel data model during 2000～2008, the results show that the scale effect increases the environmental pollution and technical effect reduces the environmental pollution of the eastern region. Structure effect increases environmental pollution of eastern and central regions, but reduces environmental pollution of western region. On the whole, the openness of trade has a positive effect on the eastern region, but it has a negative effect on central and western regions. "Pollution heaven" phenomenon does exist in central and western regions. From industry level, China's foreign trade industries those bring greater negative impacts on environment than others respectively is textile industry, leather and fur industry, food, beverage and tobacco manufacturing industry, mechanical, electrical and electronic equipment manufacturing industry, black metal smelting industry, rolling processing industry. The study on the impacts of environmental policy differences on Sino-US trade shows that there exists relatively stable correlation between Sino-US environment regulation index and import-export index. The relative severization of the United States's environmental regulation led our pollution intensive products play a significant role in Sino-US trade surplus. China undertakes more environmental cost in the Sino-US trade.
Chapter VIII is the conclusion of this dissertation and policy recommendations. This chapter makes a summary of full text. According to the environmental pollution problems existed in China's foreign trade progress, the author puts forward the policy framework for the coordinated development of China's foreign trade and environmental protection.
引文
①中国国家统计局.2010年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL]. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/ndtjgb/qgndtjgb/t20110228_402705692.htm,2011-2-28.
①北美自由贸易协议,North American Free Trade Agreement的简称.
①Global Environmental Monitoring System,全球环境监测系统。
②以下简称为ACT模型
①SO2、NOx、CO2和BOD分别是二氧化硫、氮氧化物、二氧化碳和生化需氧量的英文简称。
② Suspended Particulate Matter,悬浮颗粒物。
① International Federation of Institutes for Advanced Studies, IFIAS.
②环境贸易条件是指一国出口使环境承受的所有压力与进口使环境承受的所有压力之比,其计算公式为：(EEPx/EEPm)×100,其中,EEPx指出口中隐含的环境压力(主要表现为能耗与污染),EEPm指进口中隐含的环境压力：此外,ETT在计算国际贸易中隐含污染物时采用实物而非货币表示的计量单位。
③也称为“贸易的污染条件”
①CO2、SO2、NO2分别是二氧化碳、二氧化硫和二氧化氮的简称。
①NOx表示氮氧化物,包括多种化合物,如一氧化二氮(N2O)、一氧化氮(NO)、二氧化氮(NO2)、三氧化二氮(N2O3)、四氧化二氮(N2O4)和五氧化二氮(N2O5)等。
①据OECD(1997)的估算,污染治理成本(PAC)的支出对多数产业的生产成本来说占很小一部分(1%～2%),即便是污染密集型产业,PAC也仅占到总成本的5%左右。
①沈晓悦.纺织行业贸易顺差下的环境“逆差”[J].环境保护,2007,(8A)：36-38.
②张小蒂、罗堃.中国能源密集型产品出口贸易的环境代价[J].学术月刊,2007,(11)：67-72.
③国冬梅.隐藏在电子行业贸易背后的环境问题[J].环境保护,2007,(8)：39-41.
①国冬梅.隐藏在电子行业贸易背后的环境问题[J].环境保护,2007,(8A)：3941.
①Standard International Trade Classification,简称SITC,即国际贸易标准分类。
①根据相关年份《中国统计年鉴》数据计算而得。
②夏友富.外商投资中国污染密集产业现状、后果及其对策研究[J].管理世界,1999,(3)：109-123.
③沙文兵、石涛.外商直接投资的环境效应-基于中国省级面板数据的实证分析[J].世界经济研究,2006,(6)：76-81.
①易丹辉.数据分析与EViews应用[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社.2008年版.
②Cholesky Ordering:lnSO2 lnT lnF
①参见《中国对外经济统计年鉴》(1994-2005年)。
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①北美自由贸易协议,North American Free Trade Agreement的简称.
①Global Environmental Monitoring System,全球环境监测系统。
②以下简称为ACT模型
①SO2、NOx、CO2和BOD分别是二氧化硫、氮氧化物、二氧化碳和生化需氧量的英文简称。
② Suspended Particulate Matter,悬浮颗粒物。
① International Federation of Institutes for Advanced Studies, IFIAS.
②环境贸易条件是指一国出口使环境承受的所有压力与进口使环境承受的所有压力之比,其计算公式为：(EEPx/EEPm)×100,其中,EEPx指出口中隐含的环境压力(主要表现为能耗与污染),EEPm指进口中隐含的环境压力：此外,ETT在计算国际贸易中隐含污染物时采用实物而非货币表示的计量单位。
③也称为“贸易的污染条件”
①CO2、SO2、NO2分别是二氧化碳、二氧化硫和二氧化氮的简称。
①NOx表示氮氧化物,包括多种化合物,如一氧化二氮(N2O)、一氧化氮(NO)、二氧化氮(NO2)、三氧化二氮(N2O3)、四氧化二氮(N2O4)和五氧化二氮(N2O5)等。
①据OECD(1997)的估算,污染治理成本(PAC)的支出对多数产业的生产成本来说占很小一部分(1%～2%),即便是污染密集型产业,PAC也仅占到总成本的5%左右。
①沈晓悦.纺织行业贸易顺差下的环境“逆差”[J].环境保护,2007,(8A)：36-38.
②张小蒂、罗堃.中国能源密集型产品出口贸易的环境代价[J].学术月刊,2007,(11)：67-72.
③国冬梅.隐藏在电子行业贸易背后的环境问题[J].环境保护,2007,(8)：39-41.
①国冬梅.隐藏在电子行业贸易背后的环境问题[J].环境保护,2007,(8A)：3941.
①Standard International Trade Classification,简称SITC,即国际贸易标准分类。
①根据相关年份《中国统计年鉴》数据计算而得。
②夏友富.外商投资中国污染密集产业现状、后果及其对策研究[J].管理世界,1999,(3)：109-123.
③沙文兵、石涛.外商直接投资的环境效应-基于中国省级面板数据的实证分析[J].世界经济研究,2006,(6)：76-81.
①易丹辉.数据分析与EViews应用[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社.2008年版.
②Cholesky Ordering:lnSO2 lnT lnF
①参见《中国对外经济统计年鉴》(1994-2005年)。
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