环境规制、要素禀赋与产业国际竞争力的实证研究
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摘要
本文对中国1996-2004年24个制造业的环境规制与产业国际竞争力的关系进行研究,重点构造了环境规制指标、产业国际竞争力指标以及污染强度指标,通过计算各行业的污染强度,将行业分为清洁行业和肮脏行业。在计量模型的设置方面,本文引入了环境规制的二次项以考察其对产业国际竞争力的双重影响,并考虑了影响产业国际竞争力的另一重要指标——要素禀赋指标,以隔离环境规制效应与要素禀赋效应。在实证分析部分,考虑到模型中存在的序列相关性问题以及内生性问题,本文采用计量软件Stata10.0进行FGLS回归估计、工具变量估计和稳健性检验,分析中国各制造业的国际竞争力受环境规制的影响情况。
描述性分析认为,污染密集型行业的比较优势较低,表明我国污染密集型行业并不具有比较优势,并没有向国外大量销售污染密集型产品。因此,我国并不是西方国家的“污染避难所”。描述性分析也认为,环境规制较高的行业比较优势较低,同时,物质资本要素和人力资本要素较高的行业比较优势较低。这一观点在实证分析中得到了进一步证实,并得出结论：目前,我国各制造业的环境规制与产业国际竞争力呈负相关关系,但从长远来看,环境规制与产业国际竞争力呈“U”形关系,即在拐点之前,环境规制阻碍各制造业的国际竞争力的提高,而在跨过拐点之后,环境规制则促进产业国际竞争力的形成。
This paper constructed a panel database of 24 manufacturing industries of China during 1996-2004. Using econometrical software Stata10.0, I made FGLS regression estimations, instrumental estimations and robust tests to analyze the relationship between environmental regulation and international competitiveness. I emphatically constructed indicators of environmental regulation, international competitiveness and pollution intensity, and according to the calculation of pollution intensity, I classified the industries into cleaning industries and pollutional industries. I introduced the square of environmental regulation into regression model in order to analyze the double effects on competitiveness, and also I introduced factor endowment indicators to differentiate environmental regulation effect and factor endowment effect.
The descriptive analysis tells us that the higher the environmental regulation is, the lower international competitiveness is, and the physical and human capital intensive industries are less competitive. The empirical analysis also finds that the relationship between environmental regulation and international competitiveness is negative, but in the long run, the relationship will be the shape of "U", that is, before the point of inflexion, environmental regulation hinders the competitiveness, once after that point, environmental regulation will increase the competitiveness.
描述性分析认为,污染密集型行业的比较优势较低,表明我国污染密集型行业并不具有比较优势,并没有向国外大量销售污染密集型产品。因此,我国并不是西方国家的“污染避难所”。描述性分析也认为,环境规制较高的行业比较优势较低,同时,物质资本要素和人力资本要素较高的行业比较优势较低。这一观点在实证分析中得到了进一步证实,并得出结论：目前,我国各制造业的环境规制与产业国际竞争力呈负相关关系,但从长远来看,环境规制与产业国际竞争力呈“U”形关系,即在拐点之前,环境规制阻碍各制造业的国际竞争力的提高,而在跨过拐点之后,环境规制则促进产业国际竞争力的形成。
This paper constructed a panel database of 24 manufacturing industries of China during 1996-2004. Using econometrical software Stata10.0, I made FGLS regression estimations, instrumental estimations and robust tests to analyze the relationship between environmental regulation and international competitiveness. I emphatically constructed indicators of environmental regulation, international competitiveness and pollution intensity, and according to the calculation of pollution intensity, I classified the industries into cleaning industries and pollutional industries. I introduced the square of environmental regulation into regression model in order to analyze the double effects on competitiveness, and also I introduced factor endowment indicators to differentiate environmental regulation effect and factor endowment effect.
The descriptive analysis tells us that the higher the environmental regulation is, the lower international competitiveness is, and the physical and human capital intensive industries are less competitive. The empirical analysis also finds that the relationship between environmental regulation and international competitiveness is negative, but in the long run, the relationship will be the shape of "U", that is, before the point of inflexion, environmental regulation hinders the competitiveness, once after that point, environmental regulation will increase the competitiveness.
引文
3 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年度政策报告,中国环境科学出版社,2007。
4 数据报告发表于当代工业报告Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures, MA-200.
9 相关处理的进一步研究请参考Larusen (1998)和Dalum et al. (1998).
[1]Alpay, E., S. Buccola and J. Kerkvliet. Productivity Growth and Environmental Regulation in Mexican and U.S. Food Manufacturing[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,2002,84(4),887-901.
[2]Antiwerler, B.Copeland and M.Tayor. Is Free Trade Good for the Environment[J]. American Economic Review,2001,Vol.91, pp.887-904.
[3]Arik Levinson, M.Scott Taylor. Unmasking the Pollution Haven Effect[J]. NBER Working Papers with number 10629,2008.
[4]Baumol,W.J., Oates W.E.. The Theory of Environmental Policy[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1988.
[5]Beata K.Smarzynska, Shang-Jin Wei. Pollution Havens and Foreign Direct Investment:Dirty Secret or Popular Myth[J]. The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2673,2001.
[6]Berman, E. and L.T.M. Bui. Environmental regulation and productivity:evidence from oil refineries[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,2001,83(3),498-510.
[7]Brunnermeier, S.B. and M.A. Cohen. Determinants of environmental innovation in US manufacturing industries[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2003(45),278-293.
[8]Carbon Trust:The European Emissions Trading Scheme:Implications for Industrial Competitiveness[OL]. 2004, http://www.thecarbontrust.co.uk/carbontrust/
[9]Chichilnisky C. North-South Trade and the Global Environment[J]. American Economic Review,1994, Vol.84, pp.851-874.
[10]Copeland,B.R., Taylor M.S.. North-South Trade and the Environment[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1994, Vol.109, pp.755-787.
[11]Dasgupta. Environmental Regulation and Development[J]. World Bank Working Paper, Washington, D.C., 1995.
[12]EderingtonJ.and Minier,J.. Is Environmental Policy a Secondary Trade Barrier? An Empirical Analysis[J]. Canadian Journal of Economics,2003, Vol.36,pp.137-54.
[13]Ederington, J., Levinson, A. and Minier, J.. Footloose and Pollution Free[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,2005, Vol.87 (1), pp.92-99.
[14]Esty D.C., Porter M. E., Sachs J.et al.. Ranking National Environmental Regulation and Performance:A Leading Indicator of Future Competitiveness[R], The Global Competitiveness Reprot, New York:Oxford University Press,2001.
[15]Florax, Mulatu and Withagen. Environmental Regulation and Competitiveness [J]. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, T1039/3,2001.
[16]Gollop, F.M. and M.J. Roberts. Environmental Regulations and Productivity Growth:The Case of Fossil-fuelled Electric Power Generation[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1983,91(4),654-674. http://www.j stor.org/stable/1831072?seq= 19
[17]Hettige, H., Lucas, R., Wheeler, D.. The Toxic Intensity of Industrial Production[J]. American Economic Review,1992,82 (2),464-468.
[18]Jaffe A.B., Palmer K.. Environmental Regulation and Innovation:a Panel Data Study[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press,1997,79(4),610-619.
[19]Jenkins R.. Environmental Regulation and International Competitiveness:A Review of Literature and Some European Evidence[J]. United Nations University Institute for New Technologies,1998.
[20]John S. Wilson, Tsunehiro Otsuki and Mirvat Sewadeh. Dirty Exports and Environmental Regulation:Do Standards Matter to Trade[J]. The World Bank Working Paper Series, No.2806,2002.
[21]Josh Ederington, Arik Levinson and Jenny Minier. Trade Liberalization and Pollution Havens[J]. NBER Working Paper with number 10585,2004.
[22]Judith M.Dean, Mary E.lovely, Hua Wang. Are Foreign Investors Attracted to Weak Environmental Regulations? Evaluating the Evidence form China[J]. World Bank Policy Reseach Working Paper 3505,2005.
[23]Judith M. Dean and Mary E. Lovely. Trade Growth, Production Fragmentation and China's Environment[J]. NBER Working Paper,No.13860,2007.
[24]Keld Laursen. Do Export and Technological Specialisation Patterns Co-evolve in Terms of Convergence or Divergence? Evidence From 19 OECD Countries,1971-1991[J]. DRUID working paper, No.98-18,1998.
[25]Lanoie, P., Patry, M., Lajeunesse, R.. Environmental Regulation and Productivity:New findings on the Porter Hypothesis[J]. Journal of Productivity Analysis,2008(30),121-128.
[26]Levinson, A. and Taylor, M.S.. Unmasking the Pollution Haven Effect[J]. International Economic Review, 2008,49(1),223-254.
[27]Lucas, R., Wheeler, D. and Hettige, H.. Economic Development and Environmental Regulation In Low, P. (Ed.) [J]. International Trade and the Environment, World Bank Working Paper 159,1992.
[28]Mani and Wheeler. In Search of Pollution Havens? Dirty Industry in the World Economy,1960-1999[J]. Journal of Environment and Development,2003, Vol.7, No.3, September, pp.215-247.
[29]Matthew A.Cole, Robert J.R. Elliott and Kenichi Shimamoto. Why the grass is not always greener:the competing effects of environmental regulations and factor intensities on US specialization[J]. Ecological Economics,2005,54(1),95-109.
[30]Matthew A.Cole, Robert J.R. Elliott and Toshi Okubo. Trade, Environmental Regulations and Industrial Mobility:An Industry-Level Study for Japan[J]. WCERE 2010 paper,2010.
[31]Matthew A.Cole, Robert J.R.Elliott. FDI and the Capital Intensity of Dirty' Sectors:A Missing Piece of the Pollution Haven Puzzle[J]. Review of Development Economics,2005,9(4),530-548.
[32]Matthew A.Cole, Robert J.R.Elliott. Determining the Trade-Environment Composition Effect:The Role of Capital, Labor and Environmental Regulations[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2003.
[33]Matthew A. Cole and Robert J. R. Elliott. Do Environmental Regulations Influence Trade Patterns? Testing Old and New Trade Theories[J]. The World Economy,2003,26(8),1163-1186.
[34]Matthew A.Cole, Robert J.R.Elliott and Kenichi Shimamoto. US Specialization in Pollution-Intensive Industries:Factor Intensities versus Environmental Regulations[J]. The University of Manchester in its series The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series with number 0321,2003.
[35]Matthew A.Cole, Robert J.R.Elliott and Jing Zhang. Corruption,Governance and FDI Location in China:A Province-level Analysis[J]. Department of Economics, University of Birmingham in its series Discussion Papers with number 08-06,2009.
[36]Md. Ashfaqul I. Babool, Michael R. Reed. International Competitiveness and Environmental Regulations[J]. American Agricultural Economics Association in its series 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI with number 19496,2005.
[37]M. Scott Taylor, Calgary, Alberta. Unbundling the Pollution Haven Hypothesis[J]. Department of Economics Discussion Paper,2005.
[38]OECD. Environmental Taxes and Competitiveness:An Overview of the Issues[J]. Policy Options and Research Needs, Paris,2003.
[39]Porter, M.. America's Green Strategy[J]. Scientific American,1991,264(4),168.
[40]Porter, M. and C. van der Linde. Toward a New Conception of the Environment-Competitiveness Relationship[J]. Journal of Economic Perspective,1995,9(4),97-118.
[41]Reinaud. Industrial Competitiveness under the European Union Emission Trading Scheme[J]. International Energy Agency, Information Paper (February),2005.
[42]SQW Limited. Exploring the relationship between environmental regulation and competitiveness:a literature review-a research report completed for the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, SQW Limited,2006.
[43]Van Beers, C. and van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.. An empirical multi-country analysis of the impact of environmental regulations on foreign trade flows[J]. Kyklos,1997, Vol.50, No.1, pp.29-46.
[44]Webster, Allan and Gilroy, Michael. Labour Skills and the UK's Comparative Advantage with Its European Union Partners[J]. Applied Economics,1995,27(4),327-42.
[45]Yuqing Xing, Charles D.Kolstad. Do Lax Environmental Regulations Attract Foreign Investmetn? [J]. Environmental and Resource Economics,2002,21(1),1-22.
[46]傅京燕.环境规制、要素禀赋与贸易模式：理论与实证研究[M].经济科学出版社,2010(7).
[47]赵细康.环境保护与产业国际竞争力：理论与实证分析[M].中国社会科学出版社,2003(5).
[48]陈红蕾,陈秋峰.经济增长、对外贸易与环境污染：联立方程的估计[J].产业经济研究,2009(3).
[49东艳.全球气候变化博弈中的碳边界调节措施研究[J].世界经济与政治,2010(7).
[50]段琼,姜太平.环境标准对国际贸易竞争力的影响——中国工业部门的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题, 2002(12).
[51]傅京燕,周浩.贸易开放、要素禀赋与环境质量：基于我国省区面板数据的研究[J].国际贸易问题,2010(8).
[52]李淑俊.气候变化与美国贸易保护主义——以中美贸易摩擦为例[J].世界经济与政治,2010(4).
[53]陆旸.环境规制影响了污染密集型商品的贸易比较优势吗?[J].经济研究,2009(4).
[54]沈可挺.碳关税争端及其对中国制造业的影响[J].中国工业经济,2010(1).
[55]肖红,郭丽娟.中国环境保护对产业国际竞争力的影响分析[J].国际贸易问题,2006(12).
[56]尹显萍.环境规制对贸易的影响——以中国与欧盟商品贸易为例[J].世界经济研究,2008(7).
[57]魏浩,毛日翡,张二震.中国制成品出口比较优势及贸易结构分析[J].世界经济,2005(2).
4 数据报告发表于当代工业报告Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures, MA-200.
9 相关处理的进一步研究请参考Larusen (1998)和Dalum et al. (1998).
[1]Alpay, E., S. Buccola and J. Kerkvliet. Productivity Growth and Environmental Regulation in Mexican and U.S. Food Manufacturing[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,2002,84(4),887-901.
[2]Antiwerler, B.Copeland and M.Tayor. Is Free Trade Good for the Environment[J]. American Economic Review,2001,Vol.91, pp.887-904.
[3]Arik Levinson, M.Scott Taylor. Unmasking the Pollution Haven Effect[J]. NBER Working Papers with number 10629,2008.
[4]Baumol,W.J., Oates W.E.. The Theory of Environmental Policy[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1988.
[5]Beata K.Smarzynska, Shang-Jin Wei. Pollution Havens and Foreign Direct Investment:Dirty Secret or Popular Myth[J]. The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2673,2001.
[6]Berman, E. and L.T.M. Bui. Environmental regulation and productivity:evidence from oil refineries[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,2001,83(3),498-510.
[7]Brunnermeier, S.B. and M.A. Cohen. Determinants of environmental innovation in US manufacturing industries[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2003(45),278-293.
[8]Carbon Trust:The European Emissions Trading Scheme:Implications for Industrial Competitiveness[OL]. 2004, http://www.thecarbontrust.co.uk/carbontrust/
[9]Chichilnisky C. North-South Trade and the Global Environment[J]. American Economic Review,1994, Vol.84, pp.851-874.
[10]Copeland,B.R., Taylor M.S.. North-South Trade and the Environment[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1994, Vol.109, pp.755-787.
[11]Dasgupta. Environmental Regulation and Development[J]. World Bank Working Paper, Washington, D.C., 1995.
[12]EderingtonJ.and Minier,J.. Is Environmental Policy a Secondary Trade Barrier? An Empirical Analysis[J]. Canadian Journal of Economics,2003, Vol.36,pp.137-54.
[13]Ederington, J., Levinson, A. and Minier, J.. Footloose and Pollution Free[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,2005, Vol.87 (1), pp.92-99.
[14]Esty D.C., Porter M. E., Sachs J.et al.. Ranking National Environmental Regulation and Performance:A Leading Indicator of Future Competitiveness[R], The Global Competitiveness Reprot, New York:Oxford University Press,2001.
[15]Florax, Mulatu and Withagen. Environmental Regulation and Competitiveness [J]. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, T1039/3,2001.
[16]Gollop, F.M. and M.J. Roberts. Environmental Regulations and Productivity Growth:The Case of Fossil-fuelled Electric Power Generation[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1983,91(4),654-674. http://www.j stor.org/stable/1831072?seq= 19
[17]Hettige, H., Lucas, R., Wheeler, D.. The Toxic Intensity of Industrial Production[J]. American Economic Review,1992,82 (2),464-468.
[18]Jaffe A.B., Palmer K.. Environmental Regulation and Innovation:a Panel Data Study[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press,1997,79(4),610-619.
[19]Jenkins R.. Environmental Regulation and International Competitiveness:A Review of Literature and Some European Evidence[J]. United Nations University Institute for New Technologies,1998.
[20]John S. Wilson, Tsunehiro Otsuki and Mirvat Sewadeh. Dirty Exports and Environmental Regulation:Do Standards Matter to Trade[J]. The World Bank Working Paper Series, No.2806,2002.
[21]Josh Ederington, Arik Levinson and Jenny Minier. Trade Liberalization and Pollution Havens[J]. NBER Working Paper with number 10585,2004.
[22]Judith M.Dean, Mary E.lovely, Hua Wang. Are Foreign Investors Attracted to Weak Environmental Regulations? Evaluating the Evidence form China[J]. World Bank Policy Reseach Working Paper 3505,2005.
[23]Judith M. Dean and Mary E. Lovely. Trade Growth, Production Fragmentation and China's Environment[J]. NBER Working Paper,No.13860,2007.
[24]Keld Laursen. Do Export and Technological Specialisation Patterns Co-evolve in Terms of Convergence or Divergence? Evidence From 19 OECD Countries,1971-1991[J]. DRUID working paper, No.98-18,1998.
[25]Lanoie, P., Patry, M., Lajeunesse, R.. Environmental Regulation and Productivity:New findings on the Porter Hypothesis[J]. Journal of Productivity Analysis,2008(30),121-128.
[26]Levinson, A. and Taylor, M.S.. Unmasking the Pollution Haven Effect[J]. International Economic Review, 2008,49(1),223-254.
[27]Lucas, R., Wheeler, D. and Hettige, H.. Economic Development and Environmental Regulation In Low, P. (Ed.) [J]. International Trade and the Environment, World Bank Working Paper 159,1992.
[28]Mani and Wheeler. In Search of Pollution Havens? Dirty Industry in the World Economy,1960-1999[J]. Journal of Environment and Development,2003, Vol.7, No.3, September, pp.215-247.
[29]Matthew A.Cole, Robert J.R. Elliott and Kenichi Shimamoto. Why the grass is not always greener:the competing effects of environmental regulations and factor intensities on US specialization[J]. Ecological Economics,2005,54(1),95-109.
[30]Matthew A.Cole, Robert J.R. Elliott and Toshi Okubo. Trade, Environmental Regulations and Industrial Mobility:An Industry-Level Study for Japan[J]. WCERE 2010 paper,2010.
[31]Matthew A.Cole, Robert J.R.Elliott. FDI and the Capital Intensity of Dirty' Sectors:A Missing Piece of the Pollution Haven Puzzle[J]. Review of Development Economics,2005,9(4),530-548.
[32]Matthew A.Cole, Robert J.R.Elliott. Determining the Trade-Environment Composition Effect:The Role of Capital, Labor and Environmental Regulations[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2003.
[33]Matthew A. Cole and Robert J. R. Elliott. Do Environmental Regulations Influence Trade Patterns? Testing Old and New Trade Theories[J]. The World Economy,2003,26(8),1163-1186.
[34]Matthew A.Cole, Robert J.R.Elliott and Kenichi Shimamoto. US Specialization in Pollution-Intensive Industries:Factor Intensities versus Environmental Regulations[J]. The University of Manchester in its series The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series with number 0321,2003.
[35]Matthew A.Cole, Robert J.R.Elliott and Jing Zhang. Corruption,Governance and FDI Location in China:A Province-level Analysis[J]. Department of Economics, University of Birmingham in its series Discussion Papers with number 08-06,2009.
[36]Md. Ashfaqul I. Babool, Michael R. Reed. International Competitiveness and Environmental Regulations[J]. American Agricultural Economics Association in its series 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI with number 19496,2005.
[37]M. Scott Taylor, Calgary, Alberta. Unbundling the Pollution Haven Hypothesis[J]. Department of Economics Discussion Paper,2005.
[38]OECD. Environmental Taxes and Competitiveness:An Overview of the Issues[J]. Policy Options and Research Needs, Paris,2003.
[39]Porter, M.. America's Green Strategy[J]. Scientific American,1991,264(4),168.
[40]Porter, M. and C. van der Linde. Toward a New Conception of the Environment-Competitiveness Relationship[J]. Journal of Economic Perspective,1995,9(4),97-118.
[41]Reinaud. Industrial Competitiveness under the European Union Emission Trading Scheme[J]. International Energy Agency, Information Paper (February),2005.
[42]SQW Limited. Exploring the relationship between environmental regulation and competitiveness:a literature review-a research report completed for the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, SQW Limited,2006.
[43]Van Beers, C. and van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.. An empirical multi-country analysis of the impact of environmental regulations on foreign trade flows[J]. Kyklos,1997, Vol.50, No.1, pp.29-46.
[44]Webster, Allan and Gilroy, Michael. Labour Skills and the UK's Comparative Advantage with Its European Union Partners[J]. Applied Economics,1995,27(4),327-42.
[45]Yuqing Xing, Charles D.Kolstad. Do Lax Environmental Regulations Attract Foreign Investmetn? [J]. Environmental and Resource Economics,2002,21(1),1-22.
[46]傅京燕.环境规制、要素禀赋与贸易模式：理论与实证研究[M].经济科学出版社,2010(7).
[47]赵细康.环境保护与产业国际竞争力：理论与实证分析[M].中国社会科学出版社,2003(5).
[48]陈红蕾,陈秋峰.经济增长、对外贸易与环境污染：联立方程的估计[J].产业经济研究,2009(3).
[49东艳.全球气候变化博弈中的碳边界调节措施研究[J].世界经济与政治,2010(7).
[50]段琼,姜太平.环境标准对国际贸易竞争力的影响——中国工业部门的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题, 2002(12).
[51]傅京燕,周浩.贸易开放、要素禀赋与环境质量：基于我国省区面板数据的研究[J].国际贸易问题,2010(8).
[52]李淑俊.气候变化与美国贸易保护主义——以中美贸易摩擦为例[J].世界经济与政治,2010(4).
[53]陆旸.环境规制影响了污染密集型商品的贸易比较优势吗?[J].经济研究,2009(4).
[54]沈可挺.碳关税争端及其对中国制造业的影响[J].中国工业经济,2010(1).
[55]肖红,郭丽娟.中国环境保护对产业国际竞争力的影响分析[J].国际贸易问题,2006(12).
[56]尹显萍.环境规制对贸易的影响——以中国与欧盟商品贸易为例[J].世界经济研究,2008(7).
[57]魏浩,毛日翡,张二震.中国制成品出口比较优势及贸易结构分析[J].世界经济,2005(2).