人民币汇率变动的就业效应
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摘要
当前,中国正面临着改革开放以来最严重的国际金融危机,人民币升值和严峻就业形势是摆在我们面前迫切需要解决的问题,为了揭示汇率变动是否影响就业,我们从理论上分别阐述了名义汇率和实际汇率变动如何影响价格水平、价格水平变动如何影响就业、名义汇率和实际汇率变动如何影响就业以及就业如何通过价格水平变动反作用于名义汇率和实际汇率。在理论分析的基础上,我们建立相关模型,采用最小二乘法、分布滞后、自相关、自相关分布滞后模型和格兰杰因果检验进行了实证分析。实证结果表明：中国的价格水平变动存在明显的滞后效应和自相关效应,人民币的名义汇率传递效应很不完全；费雪曲线可能在中国成立,但是非线性形式的菲利普斯曲线无法得到证实,负斜率的线性菲利普斯曲线可能成立,中国价格水平变动对失业率的影响确实存在滞后效应和自相关效应：中国的失业率受人民币名义汇率和实际汇率变动影响很小,主要是受美国通货膨胀率影响,在传导过程中明显存在着滞后效应和自相关效应；反过来,中国的失业率对人民币名义汇率变动和购买力平价法下的实际汇率也有反作用,对物价指数调整法下的实际汇率没有显著反作用。最后,我们根据前面的理论分析和实证结果,有针对性地提出政策建议,并对今后的研究方向进行了展望。
Curently, we are confronting the most severious financial crisis since the reform and open to the outside in China. Depreciation of Renminbi and the severe situation of employment are pressing for solution. In order to reveal whether the exchange rate effect employment or not, we explain how the changes of nominal and real exchange rate affect the price level firstly, then we explain how the change of price level effect the employment. Therefore, we can derive how the changes of nominal and real exchange rate make effect on the employment through the change of price level. Conversly, we also analyze the reaction on the nominal and real exchange rate by the change of employment. Based on the theoretical analysis, we set up related model and make empirical analysis with the method of least square, distribution lag, autocorrelation, autocorrelation distribution lag and Grange causality. The empirical analyses arrive at some conclusions. Firstly, the change of Chinese price level exists in evident lag and autocorrelation effct, but the pass-through effect of RMB exchange rate is imperfect. Secondly, the Fisher Curve and negative slope Philips Curve maybe exist in China, but the nolinear Philips Curve cannot be verified, and the change of Chinese price level really have lagged and autocorrelated effect on unemployment. Thirdly, the unemployment rate of China is hardly affected by nominal and real exchange rate of RMB, it is mainly affected by the inflation rate of United States and has lagged and autocorrelated effect evidently. On the contrary, the unemployment rate of China has reaction on the nominal exchange rate of RMB and real exchange rate of RMB under the method of purchase power parity, but it has no distinct effect on the price index adjusted real exchange rate of RMB. In the end, we provide some policy suggestions on the basis of the above-mentioned theoretical and empirical analyses; meanwhile we prospect how to make further research in the future.
Curently, we are confronting the most severious financial crisis since the reform and open to the outside in China. Depreciation of Renminbi and the severe situation of employment are pressing for solution. In order to reveal whether the exchange rate effect employment or not, we explain how the changes of nominal and real exchange rate affect the price level firstly, then we explain how the change of price level effect the employment. Therefore, we can derive how the changes of nominal and real exchange rate make effect on the employment through the change of price level. Conversly, we also analyze the reaction on the nominal and real exchange rate by the change of employment. Based on the theoretical analysis, we set up related model and make empirical analysis with the method of least square, distribution lag, autocorrelation, autocorrelation distribution lag and Grange causality. The empirical analyses arrive at some conclusions. Firstly, the change of Chinese price level exists in evident lag and autocorrelation effct, but the pass-through effect of RMB exchange rate is imperfect. Secondly, the Fisher Curve and negative slope Philips Curve maybe exist in China, but the nolinear Philips Curve cannot be verified, and the change of Chinese price level really have lagged and autocorrelated effect on unemployment. Thirdly, the unemployment rate of China is hardly affected by nominal and real exchange rate of RMB, it is mainly affected by the inflation rate of United States and has lagged and autocorrelated effect evidently. On the contrary, the unemployment rate of China has reaction on the nominal exchange rate of RMB and real exchange rate of RMB under the method of purchase power parity, but it has no distinct effect on the price index adjusted real exchange rate of RMB. In the end, we provide some policy suggestions on the basis of the above-mentioned theoretical and empirical analyses; meanwhile we prospect how to make further research in the future.
引文
[1]具体内容详见中国人民银行网站(www.pbc.gov.cn)《中国人民银行关于完善人民币汇率形成机制改革的公告》。
[2]根据中国人民银行网站(www.pbc.gov.cn)公布的汇率数据计算。
[3]瞿强,《日本“泡沫经济”时期的货币与财政政策及其教训》,《金融论坛》,2001年第9期。
[4]刘日红,《日本经济尚未走出“十年低谜”》,中国经济时报,2003年12月29日国际观察栏目。
[5]《产出水平复苏显示日本经济泡沫时代结束》,全景网络,2006年1月24日。
[6]《压迫人民币升值阴谋破产,G7会议否决日提案》,人民网,2003年2月27日。
[7]米飙,《中国汇率,美国布什政府再施压》,21世纪经济报道,2004年9月21日。
[8]顾钱江、江国成,《美国威胁要求人民币在6个月内升值否则将报复》,新华网,2005年4月8日。
[9]Goldstein, M., (2003), “China's Exchange Rate Regime”, http://www.iie.com/publications/papers/goldstein1003.htm。
[10]根据新浪网财经新闻综合整理。
[11]江国成,《斯蒂格利茨和蒙代尔强调：人民币不应升值》,新华网,2005年3月25日；艾勇,《麦金农：人民币无升值理由》,东方早报,2005年4月13日。
[12]艾伦·贝蒂,《格林斯潘称人民币升值无碍美就业》,金融时报,2003年12月12日。
[13]薛彦平,《格林斯潘称中国人民币的升值并不能帮助美国减少贸易逆差》,新华网,2005年5月20日。
[14]转引自新浪网新闻(http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2010-04-03/ 070317318286s.shtml)。
[15]见人力资源和社会保障部网站(http://www.mohrss.gov.cn/)各年统 计公报。
[16]数据引自蔡昉2009年2月在首都经贸大学的演讲《如何看待中国当前的就业形势》(http://whb.news365. com. cn/mzjy/200902/t20090214_2201351. ht m)。
[17]见发改委网站2006年1季度就业形势分析(http://www. sdpc. gov. cn /jyysr/zhdt/t20060427_67676. htm)。
[18]见人力资源和社会保障部网站(http://www. mohrss. gov. cn/)。
[19]详见十届全国人大四次会议206年3月14日通过的《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要》。
[20]Campa和Goldberg建立的是代表性厂商模型,在表述时经常用产业(industry)一词,这里我们把产业替代为企业,与原文有所不同。具体内容参见Campa和Goldberg在1998年发表的NBER第6749号工作论文"Employment versus Wage Adjustment and the U.S. Dollar"原文。
[21]Lazear(1990)考察了劳动保障条例对就业的影响,结果发现欧洲很多国家规定的遣散费或解约提前通知对就业有很大影响,在位者很容易保持工作,而新工人很难得到雇佣,利用数据进行实证的结果支持遣散费要求降低了就业这一观点。
[22]Das & Pant(1996)用生产者理论建立均衡汇率模型,并根据印度1960-1993的加总数据进行实证分析,结果表明卢比汇率贬值对就业有利,但幅度很有限。
[23]鄂永健、丁剑平(2006)在个体跨期最优模型中引入内生劳动力供给,并同时假定对资本流动存在限制,以此来分析实际汇率变动对就业)的影响。结果发现：只有当消费者对商品消费的相对风险规避程度比较大,即消费的跨期替代弹性比较小时,实际汇率贬值才会促进就业的增加,反之汇率贬值使就业减少。考虑到中国当前的具体情况,消费者商品消费的相对风险规避程度会比较大,因而人民币实际汇率贬值会有利于就业,1980-2003年数据对中国的实证检验结果支持了这一结论。鉴于从长期来看中国消费者的相对风险规避程度有下降的趋势,过分的依赖于低币值的汇率政策来解决失业问题是不可行的。
[24]金雪军和郭舒萍(2004)利用中国1984-2003的数据研究了人民币汇率调整对中国就业状况的影响,结果发现：1994年以前,汇率调整对国内就业影响较大；而1994年以后,汇率调整对国内的就业状况影响不大。因此,他们认为,目前人民币小幅升值,短期内会对国内就业造成一定压力,但影响不会太大,而长期内则可能促进中国改善出口企业的结构,提高出口企业的竞争力,从而产生一种正面效应。万解秋和徐涛(2004)利用1981-2001年中国就业人数和人民币
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[2]根据中国人民银行网站(www.pbc.gov.cn)公布的汇率数据计算。
[3]瞿强,《日本“泡沫经济”时期的货币与财政政策及其教训》,《金融论坛》,2001年第9期。
[4]刘日红,《日本经济尚未走出“十年低谜”》,中国经济时报,2003年12月29日国际观察栏目。
[5]《产出水平复苏显示日本经济泡沫时代结束》,全景网络,2006年1月24日。
[6]《压迫人民币升值阴谋破产,G7会议否决日提案》,人民网,2003年2月27日。
[7]米飙,《中国汇率,美国布什政府再施压》,21世纪经济报道,2004年9月21日。
[8]顾钱江、江国成,《美国威胁要求人民币在6个月内升值否则将报复》,新华网,2005年4月8日。
[9]Goldstein, M., (2003), “China's Exchange Rate Regime”, http://www.iie.com/publications/papers/goldstein1003.htm。
[10]根据新浪网财经新闻综合整理。
[11]江国成,《斯蒂格利茨和蒙代尔强调：人民币不应升值》,新华网,2005年3月25日；艾勇,《麦金农：人民币无升值理由》,东方早报,2005年4月13日。
[12]艾伦·贝蒂,《格林斯潘称人民币升值无碍美就业》,金融时报,2003年12月12日。
[13]薛彦平,《格林斯潘称中国人民币的升值并不能帮助美国减少贸易逆差》,新华网,2005年5月20日。
[14]转引自新浪网新闻(http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2010-04-03/ 070317318286s.shtml)。
[15]见人力资源和社会保障部网站(http://www.mohrss.gov.cn/)各年统 计公报。
[16]数据引自蔡昉2009年2月在首都经贸大学的演讲《如何看待中国当前的就业形势》(http://whb.news365. com. cn/mzjy/200902/t20090214_2201351. ht m)。
[17]见发改委网站2006年1季度就业形势分析(http://www. sdpc. gov. cn /jyysr/zhdt/t20060427_67676. htm)。
[18]见人力资源和社会保障部网站(http://www. mohrss. gov. cn/)。
[19]详见十届全国人大四次会议206年3月14日通过的《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要》。
[20]Campa和Goldberg建立的是代表性厂商模型,在表述时经常用产业(industry)一词,这里我们把产业替代为企业,与原文有所不同。具体内容参见Campa和Goldberg在1998年发表的NBER第6749号工作论文"Employment versus Wage Adjustment and the U.S. Dollar"原文。
[21]Lazear(1990)考察了劳动保障条例对就业的影响,结果发现欧洲很多国家规定的遣散费或解约提前通知对就业有很大影响,在位者很容易保持工作,而新工人很难得到雇佣,利用数据进行实证的结果支持遣散费要求降低了就业这一观点。
[22]Das & Pant(1996)用生产者理论建立均衡汇率模型,并根据印度1960-1993的加总数据进行实证分析,结果表明卢比汇率贬值对就业有利,但幅度很有限。
[23]鄂永健、丁剑平(2006)在个体跨期最优模型中引入内生劳动力供给,并同时假定对资本流动存在限制,以此来分析实际汇率变动对就业)的影响。结果发现：只有当消费者对商品消费的相对风险规避程度比较大,即消费的跨期替代弹性比较小时,实际汇率贬值才会促进就业的增加,反之汇率贬值使就业减少。考虑到中国当前的具体情况,消费者商品消费的相对风险规避程度会比较大,因而人民币实际汇率贬值会有利于就业,1980-2003年数据对中国的实证检验结果支持了这一结论。鉴于从长期来看中国消费者的相对风险规避程度有下降的趋势,过分的依赖于低币值的汇率政策来解决失业问题是不可行的。
[24]金雪军和郭舒萍(2004)利用中国1984-2003的数据研究了人民币汇率调整对中国就业状况的影响,结果发现：1994年以前,汇率调整对国内就业影响较大；而1994年以后,汇率调整对国内的就业状况影响不大。因此,他们认为,目前人民币小幅升值,短期内会对国内就业造成一定压力,但影响不会太大,而长期内则可能促进中国改善出口企业的结构,提高出口企业的竞争力,从而产生一种正面效应。万解秋和徐涛(2004)利用1981-2001年中国就业人数和人民币
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