大连市自然河流挥发酚污染事故预测模型研究
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摘要
大连市是水资源严重缺乏地区之一,水资源开发利用难度越来越大。近些年来,按照率先实现全面振兴老工业基地,实施辽宁沿海经济带战略和建设东北亚重要国际城市目标的要求,加之人类对自然环境的破坏,使大连地区水资源供需矛盾越来越大,城市生活污水、工业废水、废渣污染等对海域环境质量的影响没有得到根本控制,部分河流、水库、海域仍有不同程度的污染,潜在的污染事故风险源仍然存在。
突发性水污染事故的发生具有不确定性,但其在爆发之前,可以根据已存在的风险源进行预测预警,准确的预测预警可以大幅度减少突发事件发生的可能性和降低损失的程度。
本文以挥发酚为例,研究了污染事故发生后的应急措施和污染物在大连市某河段的扩散规律,为大连市制定突发事故应急预案提供技术支持。具体为以下四方面:
(1)以松花江硝基苯水污染事故为参考,考察了事故发生后的应急监测,采取的应急改造处理措施,及事故后的生态修复技术等方面,对此次事故在应急管理中暴露的不足进行深入分析。
(2)污染物排放量的预测属于狄色系统问题,通过残差修正模型和新陈代谢模型对大连市挥发酚的排放量进行预测,精度检验结果达到二级合格标准。结果表明,如不采取措施,到2015年挥发酚的排放量将达到60.3吨,是2007年的2.4倍,若不经处理直接排放,将会造成河流和近海海域的污染,带来严重的损失。
(3)根据大连市水资源特点,采用一维水质模型对大连市某河段的挥发酚污染进行模拟。利用工程软件MATLAB分别实现瞬时源模型、瞬时源积分模型和连续源模型的污染水团实时状态模拟。根据水体中污染物迁移转化基本方程的简化和推导,得到的用于鉴别环境危害有无、表征环境危害强弱、描述事故危害情况、估算事故危害区大小和危害期长短的风险评估模式进行评估,模型模拟结果与评估计算结果合理,为环境风险管理以及突发性环境污染应急预案的制定提供依据。
(4)河流是大连市主要的淡水水源,应加强流域的管理。从构建流域管理体系、流域水权制度和生态补偿制度等方面对河流进行综合管理;制定相关的保护管理措施,制定应急预案,积极应对事故带来的危害,将污染危害降到最低。
Dalian city is one of the water shortage areas and the water resources development and utilization has been more and more difficult. In recent years, as reinvigorating northeast old industrial base, implementing coastal economic zone strategy and constructing northeast Asia international city, together with the human destruction of the nature, all of which increase the water supply- demand contradiction. There still some pollution sources influence the environmental quality, for example, domestic sewage, industrial wastewater, waste residue, agricultural pollution, ship pollution. Some rivers, reservoir and sea area are still in different levels of pollution and potential pollution accidents still exist.
Although water pollution accidents are uncertainty, they can be forecasted and predicted according to the risk sources before outbreak. Accurate forecast and precaution can greatly decrease the possibility of occurrence and reduce the loss, and which is the first and important link of emergency management system.
Taking the volatile phenol as example, this paper models the diffusion rule of certain river in Dalian city, which is helpful to make emergency plan. It includes four main aspects as follows:
(1) Taking Songhua river's nitrobenzene accident as reference, the emergency monitoring, emergency treatments, ecological restoration are investigated. It deeply analyzes the deficiency of the emergency management shown in this accident.
(2) The predication of pollutant emission belongs to the grey system theory. The modified model of residual and the metabolic model are used to forecast the volatile phenol emission of Dalian city, and the results can meet the secondary qualified standard. The static shows that if there are no control measures the emission will reach to 60.3 ton in 2015, which are 2.4 times of 2007. So many pollutants discharge directly will bring great pollution of river and sea area, and bring great economical losses.
(3) According to the water resources situation of Dalian, one-dimensional water quality model is used to predicate the volatile phenol diffusion rule in certain river of Dalian. This paper imitates the pollution cluster formatted by instantaneous model, instantaneous integral model and continuous model. The real-time simulation of tracking on polluted water mass is realized by MATLAB. The risk evaluation system is established based on the simplication and mathematical deduction of the basic equation of pollutant transport and transformation, and it could identify, characterize and describe the environmental hazard, and estimate harmful region and duration in water environment. The results of both the simulation and the risk evaluation model are sensible and accurate, which can offer the scientific basis for environmental risk management and emergent counter plan making of accidents happened in water environment.
(4) Rivers are the main fresh-water source in Dalian city, so it is important to strengthen management of river drainage area. Constructing of river management system, basin water right system, ecological compensation system are helpful to enhance the river basin comprehensive management. Useful protection measures and emergency plan can provide guarantee for the water pollution accidents to cope with the accidents actively and reduce the harm to minimum.
突发性水污染事故的发生具有不确定性,但其在爆发之前,可以根据已存在的风险源进行预测预警,准确的预测预警可以大幅度减少突发事件发生的可能性和降低损失的程度。
本文以挥发酚为例,研究了污染事故发生后的应急措施和污染物在大连市某河段的扩散规律,为大连市制定突发事故应急预案提供技术支持。具体为以下四方面:
(1)以松花江硝基苯水污染事故为参考,考察了事故发生后的应急监测,采取的应急改造处理措施,及事故后的生态修复技术等方面,对此次事故在应急管理中暴露的不足进行深入分析。
(2)污染物排放量的预测属于狄色系统问题,通过残差修正模型和新陈代谢模型对大连市挥发酚的排放量进行预测,精度检验结果达到二级合格标准。结果表明,如不采取措施,到2015年挥发酚的排放量将达到60.3吨,是2007年的2.4倍,若不经处理直接排放,将会造成河流和近海海域的污染,带来严重的损失。
(3)根据大连市水资源特点,采用一维水质模型对大连市某河段的挥发酚污染进行模拟。利用工程软件MATLAB分别实现瞬时源模型、瞬时源积分模型和连续源模型的污染水团实时状态模拟。根据水体中污染物迁移转化基本方程的简化和推导,得到的用于鉴别环境危害有无、表征环境危害强弱、描述事故危害情况、估算事故危害区大小和危害期长短的风险评估模式进行评估,模型模拟结果与评估计算结果合理,为环境风险管理以及突发性环境污染应急预案的制定提供依据。
(4)河流是大连市主要的淡水水源,应加强流域的管理。从构建流域管理体系、流域水权制度和生态补偿制度等方面对河流进行综合管理;制定相关的保护管理措施,制定应急预案,积极应对事故带来的危害,将污染危害降到最低。
Dalian city is one of the water shortage areas and the water resources development and utilization has been more and more difficult. In recent years, as reinvigorating northeast old industrial base, implementing coastal economic zone strategy and constructing northeast Asia international city, together with the human destruction of the nature, all of which increase the water supply- demand contradiction. There still some pollution sources influence the environmental quality, for example, domestic sewage, industrial wastewater, waste residue, agricultural pollution, ship pollution. Some rivers, reservoir and sea area are still in different levels of pollution and potential pollution accidents still exist.
Although water pollution accidents are uncertainty, they can be forecasted and predicted according to the risk sources before outbreak. Accurate forecast and precaution can greatly decrease the possibility of occurrence and reduce the loss, and which is the first and important link of emergency management system.
Taking the volatile phenol as example, this paper models the diffusion rule of certain river in Dalian city, which is helpful to make emergency plan. It includes four main aspects as follows:
(1) Taking Songhua river's nitrobenzene accident as reference, the emergency monitoring, emergency treatments, ecological restoration are investigated. It deeply analyzes the deficiency of the emergency management shown in this accident.
(2) The predication of pollutant emission belongs to the grey system theory. The modified model of residual and the metabolic model are used to forecast the volatile phenol emission of Dalian city, and the results can meet the secondary qualified standard. The static shows that if there are no control measures the emission will reach to 60.3 ton in 2015, which are 2.4 times of 2007. So many pollutants discharge directly will bring great pollution of river and sea area, and bring great economical losses.
(3) According to the water resources situation of Dalian, one-dimensional water quality model is used to predicate the volatile phenol diffusion rule in certain river of Dalian. This paper imitates the pollution cluster formatted by instantaneous model, instantaneous integral model and continuous model. The real-time simulation of tracking on polluted water mass is realized by MATLAB. The risk evaluation system is established based on the simplication and mathematical deduction of the basic equation of pollutant transport and transformation, and it could identify, characterize and describe the environmental hazard, and estimate harmful region and duration in water environment. The results of both the simulation and the risk evaluation model are sensible and accurate, which can offer the scientific basis for environmental risk management and emergent counter plan making of accidents happened in water environment.
(4) Rivers are the main fresh-water source in Dalian city, so it is important to strengthen management of river drainage area. Constructing of river management system, basin water right system, ecological compensation system are helpful to enhance the river basin comprehensive management. Useful protection measures and emergency plan can provide guarantee for the water pollution accidents to cope with the accidents actively and reduce the harm to minimum.
引文
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