河南省畜禽养殖业疫病风险控制影响因素研究
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摘要
2004年1月-3月,国内多个省份暴发的高致病性禽流感疫情,突显出了我国现行动物防疫体系的弊端。建设新的动物疫病防疫体系已经变得十分迫切。
河南省是我国主要的畜禽产品生产、消费和贸易基地,畜禽养殖业的持续稳定发展对全省乃至全国都具有重大的现实意义,畜禽疫病控制问题成为制约畜禽养殖业持续稳定发展的重要因素。
本文主要采用问卷调查、数学分析相结合的方法对河南省畜禽养殖业进行疫病防控的影响因素进行深入的分析,给出了完善我省动物防疫体系的相关建议。
本文研究思路:借助于问卷调查和借鉴国内外畜禽疫病进行风险控制的经验上,结合风险分析的部分原理,建立了适用于河南省畜禽养业的风险控制影响指标;并运用一定的数学手段(主要是层次分析法-AHP),结合已经建立的风险控制影响指标,提出了适用于评估养殖业养殖风险的模糊综合评估模型;最后为了证明模型的实用性,运用实例对其进行了检验。
按照上述思路,本文研究内容主要分为以下几个部分:
第一部分是引言。阐述了本研究的选题背景和研究意义,并对国内外的相关领域的研究现状以及最新进展进行了简单的总结和回顾。
第二部分是河南畜禽养殖业现状以及疫病风险控制现状分析。首先在调查问卷的基础上对河南省畜禽养殖业的发展情况和疫病发生控制情况做了简要的分析。
第三部分畜禽是养殖业疫病风险控制影响因素(指标)识别及确定。借助于问卷调查和借鉴国内外畜禽疫病进行风险控制的经验上,结合风险分析的部分原理,建立了适用于河南省畜禽养业的风险控制影响指标;并运用一定的数学手段(主要是层次分析法-AHP),结合已经建立的风险控制影响指标,提出了适用于评估养殖业养殖风险的模糊综合评估模型;最后为了证明模型的实用性,运用实例对其进行了检验。
第四部分是国内外畜禽疫病风险控制的经验借鉴。
第五部分是在相关结论的基础上,从政府、规模养殖业和小型养殖户的角度给出了相应的政策建议。
An outbreak of HSN1 epidemic in some provinces from January to March 2004 shows the weaknesses of the current animal epidemic prevention and control system in China. It is therefore urgent to build an effective animal epidemic prevention and control system.
Henan province is a major base of animal production, consumption and trade, where a sustained and stable development of livestock industry is of great practical significance for that of the province and even the whole country. Animal epidemic prevention and control is a key factor that affects sustained and stable development of the livestock industry.
In this thesis, factors affecting the animal epidemic prevention and control in Henan Province are deeply analyzed by a method combined of a questionnaire survey and mathematical analysis and some advices and suggestions are made to improve the animal epidemic prevention and control system
Strategy in this thesis is followed. firstly, indexes affecting the animal epidemic prevention and control in Henan province are constructed by using the theory of risk analysis based on the survey and the experience of the domestic and foreign animal epidemic prevention and control system. Then a fuzzy evaluation model of the risk of the livestock industry is proposed by using some mathematical methods mainly including the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on the above indexes. At last, real examples are used to prove the practicality of the model.
According to the strategy, five parts are included in this thesis.
In the first part, an introduction is given to simply review the background, significance and the latest domestic and foreign progress of the related fields of the research.
In the second part, the current situation of the livestock industry and the animal epidemic prevention and control system in Henan province is analyzed. Problems of the system are found by the analysis the survey on the livestock industry and the animal epidemic prevention and control system in Henan province.
In the third part, firstly, indexes affecting the animal epidemic prevention and control in Henan province are constructed by using the theory of risk analysis based on the survey and the experience of the domestic and foreign animal epidemic prevention and control system. Then a fuzzy evaluation model of the risk of the livestock industry is proposed by using some mathematical methods mainly including the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on the above indexes. At last, real examples are used to prove the practicality of the model.
In the fourth part, the experience of the domestic and foreign animal epidemic prevention and control system is studied.
In the last part, some suggestions and advices in policy are given for three perspectives of the government, aquaculture enterprises and farmers to improve the current animal epidemic prevention and control system.
河南省是我国主要的畜禽产品生产、消费和贸易基地,畜禽养殖业的持续稳定发展对全省乃至全国都具有重大的现实意义,畜禽疫病控制问题成为制约畜禽养殖业持续稳定发展的重要因素。
本文主要采用问卷调查、数学分析相结合的方法对河南省畜禽养殖业进行疫病防控的影响因素进行深入的分析,给出了完善我省动物防疫体系的相关建议。
本文研究思路:借助于问卷调查和借鉴国内外畜禽疫病进行风险控制的经验上,结合风险分析的部分原理,建立了适用于河南省畜禽养业的风险控制影响指标;并运用一定的数学手段(主要是层次分析法-AHP),结合已经建立的风险控制影响指标,提出了适用于评估养殖业养殖风险的模糊综合评估模型;最后为了证明模型的实用性,运用实例对其进行了检验。
按照上述思路,本文研究内容主要分为以下几个部分:
第一部分是引言。阐述了本研究的选题背景和研究意义,并对国内外的相关领域的研究现状以及最新进展进行了简单的总结和回顾。
第二部分是河南畜禽养殖业现状以及疫病风险控制现状分析。首先在调查问卷的基础上对河南省畜禽养殖业的发展情况和疫病发生控制情况做了简要的分析。
第三部分畜禽是养殖业疫病风险控制影响因素(指标)识别及确定。借助于问卷调查和借鉴国内外畜禽疫病进行风险控制的经验上,结合风险分析的部分原理,建立了适用于河南省畜禽养业的风险控制影响指标;并运用一定的数学手段(主要是层次分析法-AHP),结合已经建立的风险控制影响指标,提出了适用于评估养殖业养殖风险的模糊综合评估模型;最后为了证明模型的实用性,运用实例对其进行了检验。
第四部分是国内外畜禽疫病风险控制的经验借鉴。
第五部分是在相关结论的基础上,从政府、规模养殖业和小型养殖户的角度给出了相应的政策建议。
An outbreak of HSN1 epidemic in some provinces from January to March 2004 shows the weaknesses of the current animal epidemic prevention and control system in China. It is therefore urgent to build an effective animal epidemic prevention and control system.
Henan province is a major base of animal production, consumption and trade, where a sustained and stable development of livestock industry is of great practical significance for that of the province and even the whole country. Animal epidemic prevention and control is a key factor that affects sustained and stable development of the livestock industry.
In this thesis, factors affecting the animal epidemic prevention and control in Henan Province are deeply analyzed by a method combined of a questionnaire survey and mathematical analysis and some advices and suggestions are made to improve the animal epidemic prevention and control system
Strategy in this thesis is followed. firstly, indexes affecting the animal epidemic prevention and control in Henan province are constructed by using the theory of risk analysis based on the survey and the experience of the domestic and foreign animal epidemic prevention and control system. Then a fuzzy evaluation model of the risk of the livestock industry is proposed by using some mathematical methods mainly including the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on the above indexes. At last, real examples are used to prove the practicality of the model.
According to the strategy, five parts are included in this thesis.
In the first part, an introduction is given to simply review the background, significance and the latest domestic and foreign progress of the related fields of the research.
In the second part, the current situation of the livestock industry and the animal epidemic prevention and control system in Henan province is analyzed. Problems of the system are found by the analysis the survey on the livestock industry and the animal epidemic prevention and control system in Henan province.
In the third part, firstly, indexes affecting the animal epidemic prevention and control in Henan province are constructed by using the theory of risk analysis based on the survey and the experience of the domestic and foreign animal epidemic prevention and control system. Then a fuzzy evaluation model of the risk of the livestock industry is proposed by using some mathematical methods mainly including the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on the above indexes. At last, real examples are used to prove the practicality of the model.
In the fourth part, the experience of the domestic and foreign animal epidemic prevention and control system is studied.
In the last part, some suggestions and advices in policy are given for three perspectives of the government, aquaculture enterprises and farmers to improve the current animal epidemic prevention and control system.
引文
[1]胡廷积.河南农业发展史〔M〕.中国农业出版社,2005,9
[2]许树柏.层次分析法原理〔M〕.天津大学出版社,1998,5
[3]王莲芬,许树柏.层次分析法引论〔M〕.中国人民大学出版社,1989,3
[4]李东城等.畜禽传染病防治〔M〕.农业出版社,1991
[5]汪明,贾宏智.畜禽疫病防治〔M〕.北京农业大学出版社,1990
[6]甘孟侯.禽流感〔M〕.北京农业大学出版社,1995
[7]阴天榜,刘兴有.家禽免疫学〔M〕.中国农业科技出版社,1999
[8]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴〔M〕.中国统计出版社,2000-2006
[9]国家统计局.中国农村统计年鉴〔M〕.中国统计出版社,2000-2006
[10]国家统计局.中国农业统计年鉴〔M〕.中国统计出版社,2000-2006
[11]国家统计局.河南统计年鉴〔M〕.中国统计出版社,2000-2006
[12]中国畜牧业年鉴编辑委员会.中国畜牧业年鉴〔M〕.中国农业出版社,2000-2006
[13]农业部软科学委员会办公室.保障粮食安全与提高农产品质量〔M〕.中国农业出版社,2000,5
[14]梁碧军.动物防疫体系现状及影响农户采纳防疫技术的因素研究〔A〕.中国农业大学硕士学位论文,2004,6
[15]张军.我国风险投资项目的风险评价体系研究〔A〕.重庆大学硕士学位论文,2004,10
[16]张振岚.南京市动物疫病预防控制体系的建设〔A〕.南京农业大学博士学位论文,2004,12
[17]曹源芳.高新技术项目投资的风险评估与风险控制〔A〕.南京理工大学硕士学位论文,2003,3
[18]冯忠武.从SARS看如何建立重大动物疫病应急反应机制〔J〕.中国兽药,2003,37
[19]唐耀平.皮绍娣等,动物防疫工作中存在的问题与建议〔J〕.中国动物检疫,2004,21
[20]房涛,蒋春.对目前畜禽防疫工作存在问题的看法〔J〕.中国动物检疫,2003,20
[21]李凯年.我国畜牧业动物疫病频发原因分析〔J〕.中国动物检疫,2004,21
[22]陆敬刚.江苏抓好四大体系建设保障畜产品质量安全〔J〕.畜牧与兽医,2003,35
[23]王长江.我国重大动物疫病防治体系建设情况如何〔J〕.中国牧业通讯,2003,152
[24]林祥金.加快我国畜禽防疫体系建设的对策(上)〔J〕.中国家禽,2003,25(6)
[25]林祥金.加快我国畜禽防疫体系建设的对策(下)〔J〕.中国家禽,2003,25(7)
[26]赵洪山.逐步推行官方兽医制度〔J〕.中国兽医杂志,2004,40
[27]王金洛,宋维平.北京建立官方兽医制度的思考〔J〕.中国牧业通讯,2004,5
[28]李洋,陈向前,黄保续.美国动物卫生工作介绍〔J〕.中国动物检疫,2003,20
[29]陆昌华,王长江.中国畜禽重大疫病防治的数字化监控体系〔J〕.苏州农业学报,2005,21(3)
[30]张振兴,李玉峰.对我国养殖业生物安全现状的分析与对策〔J〕.经济动物学报,2006,10(1)
[31]贾立军等.我国禽病流行的现状、成因与对策〔J〕.中国禽业导报,2001,(6):277-281
[32]道格拉斯.格里夫.饲养管理和生物安全措施在禽病防治中的作用〔J〕.中国家禽,2003,(7)
[33]杨自立,江立方,杨再等.对畜禽粪便污染治理的一些看法〔J〕.家畜生态,2001,22(4)
[34]牛根颖,王膺,宋葛龙等.德国美国兽医管理体系研究〔J〕.农业部畜牧兽医局:加入WTO 与中国兽医发展战略高级研讨会文集,2001,125-132
[35]王长江,黄伟忠,张大贵等.赴德国兽医管理和疫病控制培训团学习体会〔J〕.农业部畜牧兽医局:加入WTO与中国兽医发展战略高级研讨会文集,2001,190-201
[36]李洋,陈向前,黄保继,美国动物卫生工作介绍〔J〕.中国动物检疫,2003,9,1-4
[37]丁晖,石碧清,徐海根.外来物种风险评估指标体系和评估方法〔J〕.生态与农村环境学报,2006,22(2)
[38]范京安,赵学谦.农作物外来有害生物风险评估体系与方法研究〔J〕.植物检疫,1997,11(2)
[39]Agriculture,fisheries and forestry of Australia,Guidelines for import risk analysis,2001,9
[40]Analysis of health and related risks in translocation of wild animals,http://wildlife.usask.ca/bookhtml/RiskAnalysis/RSKGUIDO.htm
[41]FAO,Animal Health:Necessary Components at the National Level,Multilateral trade negotiations on agriculture
[42]FAO,negotiations on Introduction to the Office International des Epizooties(OIE),Multilateral trade on agriculture
[43]FAO,Tran boundary animal diseases:assessment of socio-economic impacts and institutional responses.Livestock information and policy branch.
[44]APHIS,Exotic Newcastle Disease Emergency Disease Guidelines,Revised December.1992,18
[2]许树柏.层次分析法原理〔M〕.天津大学出版社,1998,5
[3]王莲芬,许树柏.层次分析法引论〔M〕.中国人民大学出版社,1989,3
[4]李东城等.畜禽传染病防治〔M〕.农业出版社,1991
[5]汪明,贾宏智.畜禽疫病防治〔M〕.北京农业大学出版社,1990
[6]甘孟侯.禽流感〔M〕.北京农业大学出版社,1995
[7]阴天榜,刘兴有.家禽免疫学〔M〕.中国农业科技出版社,1999
[8]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴〔M〕.中国统计出版社,2000-2006
[9]国家统计局.中国农村统计年鉴〔M〕.中国统计出版社,2000-2006
[10]国家统计局.中国农业统计年鉴〔M〕.中国统计出版社,2000-2006
[11]国家统计局.河南统计年鉴〔M〕.中国统计出版社,2000-2006
[12]中国畜牧业年鉴编辑委员会.中国畜牧业年鉴〔M〕.中国农业出版社,2000-2006
[13]农业部软科学委员会办公室.保障粮食安全与提高农产品质量〔M〕.中国农业出版社,2000,5
[14]梁碧军.动物防疫体系现状及影响农户采纳防疫技术的因素研究〔A〕.中国农业大学硕士学位论文,2004,6
[15]张军.我国风险投资项目的风险评价体系研究〔A〕.重庆大学硕士学位论文,2004,10
[16]张振岚.南京市动物疫病预防控制体系的建设〔A〕.南京农业大学博士学位论文,2004,12
[17]曹源芳.高新技术项目投资的风险评估与风险控制〔A〕.南京理工大学硕士学位论文,2003,3
[18]冯忠武.从SARS看如何建立重大动物疫病应急反应机制〔J〕.中国兽药,2003,37
[19]唐耀平.皮绍娣等,动物防疫工作中存在的问题与建议〔J〕.中国动物检疫,2004,21
[20]房涛,蒋春.对目前畜禽防疫工作存在问题的看法〔J〕.中国动物检疫,2003,20
[21]李凯年.我国畜牧业动物疫病频发原因分析〔J〕.中国动物检疫,2004,21
[22]陆敬刚.江苏抓好四大体系建设保障畜产品质量安全〔J〕.畜牧与兽医,2003,35
[23]王长江.我国重大动物疫病防治体系建设情况如何〔J〕.中国牧业通讯,2003,152
[24]林祥金.加快我国畜禽防疫体系建设的对策(上)〔J〕.中国家禽,2003,25(6)
[25]林祥金.加快我国畜禽防疫体系建设的对策(下)〔J〕.中国家禽,2003,25(7)
[26]赵洪山.逐步推行官方兽医制度〔J〕.中国兽医杂志,2004,40
[27]王金洛,宋维平.北京建立官方兽医制度的思考〔J〕.中国牧业通讯,2004,5
[28]李洋,陈向前,黄保续.美国动物卫生工作介绍〔J〕.中国动物检疫,2003,20
[29]陆昌华,王长江.中国畜禽重大疫病防治的数字化监控体系〔J〕.苏州农业学报,2005,21(3)
[30]张振兴,李玉峰.对我国养殖业生物安全现状的分析与对策〔J〕.经济动物学报,2006,10(1)
[31]贾立军等.我国禽病流行的现状、成因与对策〔J〕.中国禽业导报,2001,(6):277-281
[32]道格拉斯.格里夫.饲养管理和生物安全措施在禽病防治中的作用〔J〕.中国家禽,2003,(7)
[33]杨自立,江立方,杨再等.对畜禽粪便污染治理的一些看法〔J〕.家畜生态,2001,22(4)
[34]牛根颖,王膺,宋葛龙等.德国美国兽医管理体系研究〔J〕.农业部畜牧兽医局:加入WTO 与中国兽医发展战略高级研讨会文集,2001,125-132
[35]王长江,黄伟忠,张大贵等.赴德国兽医管理和疫病控制培训团学习体会〔J〕.农业部畜牧兽医局:加入WTO与中国兽医发展战略高级研讨会文集,2001,190-201
[36]李洋,陈向前,黄保继,美国动物卫生工作介绍〔J〕.中国动物检疫,2003,9,1-4
[37]丁晖,石碧清,徐海根.外来物种风险评估指标体系和评估方法〔J〕.生态与农村环境学报,2006,22(2)
[38]范京安,赵学谦.农作物外来有害生物风险评估体系与方法研究〔J〕.植物检疫,1997,11(2)
[39]Agriculture,fisheries and forestry of Australia,Guidelines for import risk analysis,2001,9
[40]Analysis of health and related risks in translocation of wild animals,http://wildlife.usask.ca/bookhtml/RiskAnalysis/RSKGUIDO.htm
[41]FAO,Animal Health:Necessary Components at the National Level,Multilateral trade negotiations on agriculture
[42]FAO,negotiations on Introduction to the Office International des Epizooties(OIE),Multilateral trade on agriculture
[43]FAO,Tran boundary animal diseases:assessment of socio-economic impacts and institutional responses.Livestock information and policy branch.
[44]APHIS,Exotic Newcastle Disease Emergency Disease Guidelines,Revised December.1992,18