经济增长视角下的甘肃农村减贫机制研究
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摘要
改革开放30多年以来中国持续高速的经济增长,极大地推动了农村贫困的减少,农村贫困人口从1978年的2.6亿下降到了2007年的1479万人,农村贫困率也由1978年的32.9%降低至2007年的2.0%。尽管经济增长带来的减贫成就斐然,我国目前仍然还存在大量的贫困人口。新时期的经济增长带来了农村贫困的新形式和新特点,农村贫困问题已由过去农村地区普遍存在的大片贫困演变为向中西部偏远落后地区集中或分散存在的点状贫困。甘肃作为这样一个经济发展滞后、贫困程度较深的省份之一,亟待解决贫困的难题。因此,从经济增长的视角,以甘肃为例,探索和研究农村贫困变动问题具有很强的现实意义。
本文以改革开放以来甘肃的经济增长与其农村贫困变动关系为研究对象,应用理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法,探讨了经济增长究竟通过哪些机制怎样推动农村贫困的减少,以及减贫效果如何。首先从影响方向、影响程度及影响趋势等三方面实证分析经济增长对甘肃农村贫困变动的影响。采用最小二乘法验证了甘肃经济增长与农村贫困率之间的反向变动关系,得出经济增长是甘肃农村贫困减少的重要因素。然后利用贫困变动分解法,具体分析了经济增长带来的减贫作用。同时引入贫困弹性指标,通过Lorenz曲线的模拟,显示出了甘肃经济增长的农村贫困变动趋势。接着重点讨论了经济增长的减贫机制,研究经济增长分别通过收入增长、农业发展、非农就业、扶贫资金投入以及人力资本等途径如何影响农村贫困的减少。最后,对甘肃经济增长的减贫效果进行评价,得出经济增长虽然是农村贫困减少的最重要因素,但其带来的减贫效果却明显呈现出了边际收益递减的趋势。然后针对这一结果进行了原因分析,并提出了相应的政策建议。
Since more than30years of Reform and Opening-up, China's continued rapid economic growth has greatly promoted the reduction of rural poverty, the rural poor dropped from260million in1978to14.79million in2007, and the rural poverty rate reduced from32.9%in1978to2.0%in2007. Although economic growth has resulted in striking poverty reduction achievements, there is still a high proportion of poor headcounts. The economic growth in new era has brought new forms and new characteristics of rural poverty, therefore, the issues of rural poverty have been transformed from large areas of poverty widespread in rural areas into a point-like poverty centralized or scattered toward the mid-west, remote and backward areas. Gansu, as such one of the provinces referred to economic development lags and comparatively deeper levels of poverty, needs to solve the tough problem of poverty. From the perspective of economic growth, therefore, Gansu is taken for an example to explore and study the transformation problem of the rural poverty, which carries quite a strong practical significance.
This paper uses Gansu data to study the relations between Gansu's economic growth and its changes in rural poverty since the period of Reform and Opening-up and explores how the economic growth promotes rural poverty reduction with some certain mechanisms and further influences the effectiveness on poverty reduction combining the methodology of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. First, it uses empirically analyzes economic growth of Gansu Province impacts on its rural poverty changes from the three insights on influence direction, degree of influence and influence trends. The Least Squares Method is used to verify a negative relation between the economic growth in Gansu and rural poverty rates and make a conclusion in economic growth being an important factor in rural poverty reduction in Gansu. Furthermore, with the poverty change decomposition method we analyze specifically the impact of economic growth on poverty reduction. While introducing the poverty elasticity index, we show the rural poverty variable trend in Gansu's economic growth through the simulation of the Lorenz curve. In addition we focus on poverty reduction mechanism in economic growth and study how economic growth affects the reduction of poverty in rural areas through income growth, agricultural development, non-farm employment, funding for poverty alleviation and human capital etc. Finally, through the evaluation on the impact of economic growth on poverty reduction in Gansu, a conclusion is made that the economic growth is the most important factor in rural poverty reduction whereas its impact on poverty reduction shows obviously the trend in diminishing marginal returns. Then we make the reasoned analysis for this result, and put forward relevant policy recommendations.
本文以改革开放以来甘肃的经济增长与其农村贫困变动关系为研究对象,应用理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法,探讨了经济增长究竟通过哪些机制怎样推动农村贫困的减少,以及减贫效果如何。首先从影响方向、影响程度及影响趋势等三方面实证分析经济增长对甘肃农村贫困变动的影响。采用最小二乘法验证了甘肃经济增长与农村贫困率之间的反向变动关系,得出经济增长是甘肃农村贫困减少的重要因素。然后利用贫困变动分解法,具体分析了经济增长带来的减贫作用。同时引入贫困弹性指标,通过Lorenz曲线的模拟,显示出了甘肃经济增长的农村贫困变动趋势。接着重点讨论了经济增长的减贫机制,研究经济增长分别通过收入增长、农业发展、非农就业、扶贫资金投入以及人力资本等途径如何影响农村贫困的减少。最后,对甘肃经济增长的减贫效果进行评价,得出经济增长虽然是农村贫困减少的最重要因素,但其带来的减贫效果却明显呈现出了边际收益递减的趋势。然后针对这一结果进行了原因分析,并提出了相应的政策建议。
Since more than30years of Reform and Opening-up, China's continued rapid economic growth has greatly promoted the reduction of rural poverty, the rural poor dropped from260million in1978to14.79million in2007, and the rural poverty rate reduced from32.9%in1978to2.0%in2007. Although economic growth has resulted in striking poverty reduction achievements, there is still a high proportion of poor headcounts. The economic growth in new era has brought new forms and new characteristics of rural poverty, therefore, the issues of rural poverty have been transformed from large areas of poverty widespread in rural areas into a point-like poverty centralized or scattered toward the mid-west, remote and backward areas. Gansu, as such one of the provinces referred to economic development lags and comparatively deeper levels of poverty, needs to solve the tough problem of poverty. From the perspective of economic growth, therefore, Gansu is taken for an example to explore and study the transformation problem of the rural poverty, which carries quite a strong practical significance.
This paper uses Gansu data to study the relations between Gansu's economic growth and its changes in rural poverty since the period of Reform and Opening-up and explores how the economic growth promotes rural poverty reduction with some certain mechanisms and further influences the effectiveness on poverty reduction combining the methodology of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. First, it uses empirically analyzes economic growth of Gansu Province impacts on its rural poverty changes from the three insights on influence direction, degree of influence and influence trends. The Least Squares Method is used to verify a negative relation between the economic growth in Gansu and rural poverty rates and make a conclusion in economic growth being an important factor in rural poverty reduction in Gansu. Furthermore, with the poverty change decomposition method we analyze specifically the impact of economic growth on poverty reduction. While introducing the poverty elasticity index, we show the rural poverty variable trend in Gansu's economic growth through the simulation of the Lorenz curve. In addition we focus on poverty reduction mechanism in economic growth and study how economic growth affects the reduction of poverty in rural areas through income growth, agricultural development, non-farm employment, funding for poverty alleviation and human capital etc. Finally, through the evaluation on the impact of economic growth on poverty reduction in Gansu, a conclusion is made that the economic growth is the most important factor in rural poverty reduction whereas its impact on poverty reduction shows obviously the trend in diminishing marginal returns. Then we make the reasoned analysis for this result, and put forward relevant policy recommendations.
引文
1詹木思.尼日利亚农村可持续发展与减贫机制：对农业新发展的启示[D].浙江大学国际教育学院博士学位论文,2009.
[1]李石新.中国经济发展对农村贫困的影响研究[M].北京：中国经济出版社.2010：3.
[2]世界银行.2000/2001年世界发展报告：与贫困作斗争[R].北京：中国财政经济出版社.2001：12.
[3]赵永平.经济增长中的农村贫困问题研究[硕士论文].甘肃农业大学.2006：1.
[4]朗特里.贫困：城镇生活研究[M].伦敦：麦克米兰.1901.
[5]汤森.英国的贫困：关于家庭经济来源和生活标准的调查[M].伦敦：阿伦莱思和培根图书公司.1979：42.
[6]世界银行.1981年世界发展报告[R].北京：中国财政经济出版社.1981：24.
[7]世界银行.1990年世界发展报告[R].北京：中国财政经济出版社.1990：38.
[8]奥本海默.贫困的真相[M].伦敦：儿童贫困关注小组.1993：36.
[9]阿玛蒂亚.森.衡量贫困的社会学[A].改革出版社.1993.
[10]朗特里.贫困与进步：对约克镇的第二次社会调查[M].伦敦：朗曼出版公司.1941：102.
[11]奥珊斯基.如何度量贫困[M].北京：中国科学技术出版社.1989.
[12]孙建忠.台清地区社会救助政策发展之研究.台北：时英出版社.1995.
[13]张昕欣.经济增长、收入分配对农村减贫的影响—基于安徽农村住户抽样调查资料的实证研究[硕士论文].合肥工业大学.2010：12.
[14]林伯强.中国的经济增长、贫困减少与政策选择[J].经济研究.2003(12)：30-34.
[15]Sen, A.K. Poverty:An Ordinal Approach to Measurement of poverty [J]. Econometrica. 1976(44):219-231.
[16]Foster, J.E., J. Green and Eric Thorbecke. A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures [J]. Econometrica.1984(52):761-766.
[17]Ahluwalia, M., Carter, N. and Chenery, H. Growth and Poverty in Developing Countries [J]. Journal of Development Economics.1979(6):299-341.
[18]Fields, G.S. Employment, Income Distribution and Economic Growth in 7 Small Opening Countries [J]. Journal of Economics.1984(3):33.
[19]Demery, L. and Squire, L. Poverty in Africa:An Emerging Picture [R]. Washington, D.C. World Bank (mimeo).1995.
[20]Ravallion, M., S. H., Chen. What Can New Survey Data Tell Us About Recent Changes in Distribution and Poverty? [J].World Bank Economic Review.1997(12):357-382.
[21]Deininger, Klaus and Lyn Squire. New Ways of Looking at Old Issues:Inequality and Growth[J]. Journal of Development Economics.1998,57(2):259-287.
[22]Bhalla, Surjit. Imagine There Is No Country:Globalization and Its Consequences for Poverty[R]. Washington, D.C.:Institute of International Economics.2001.
[23]Dollar, David and Aart Kraay. Growth is Good for the Poor[J] Journal of Economic Growth. 2002(4):195-225.
[24]Kraay, Aart. When Is Growth Pro-Poor? Cross Country Evidence[J]. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper.2004.
[25]Foster, J E., M. Szekely. Is Economic Growth Good For the Poor? Tracking Low Income Using General Means[J].International Economic Review.2000(14):1143-1172.
[26]Ferreira, Francisco and Ricardo Paesde Barros. Climbing a Moving Mountain:Explaining the Decline of Inequality in Brazil from 1976 to 1996[J].Inter-American Development Bank (mimeo).1998.
[27]Bourguignon, Francois. The Pace of Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction[R].Paper presented at LACEA 2001 Conference.2001.
[28]Ravallion, Martin. Growth, Inequality and Poverty:Looking Beyond Averages[J].World Development 2001(29):1803-1815.
[29]Besley, Timothy and Robin Burgess. Halving Global Poverty[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives.2003(17):3-22.
[30]Balisacan, Arsenio M. and Nobuhiko Fuwa. Growth, Inequality, and Politics Revisited:A Developing—Country Case[J].Economics Letters.2003(79):53-58.
[31]Beck, Thorsten, Asll Demirguc—Kunt and Ross Levine. Finance, Inequality and Poverty: Cross—Country Evidence[R]. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper.2004.
[32]魏众,B.古斯塔夫森.中国转型时期的贫困变动分析[J].经济研究.1998(11)：64-68.
[33]陈少华,王燕.中国经济的增长和贫困的减少(1990—1999年的趋势研究)[J].财贸研究.2001(9)：3-11.
[34]黄季煜,Scott Rozelle,章奇.中国的经济增长、收入分配与贫困[D].北京大学中国经济研究中心论文.2004.
[35]胡鞍钢,胡琳琳,常志霄.中国经济增长与减少贫困[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版).2006(5)：105-115.
[36]万广华,张茵.收入增长与不平等对我国贫困的影响[J].经济研究.2006(6)：112-123.
[37]胡兵,赖景生,胡宝娣.经济增长、收入分配与贫困缓解—基于中国农村贫困变动的实证分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究.2007(5)：33-42.
[38]陈立中.收入增长和分配对我国农村减贫的影响—方法、特征与证据[J].经济学(季刊).2009(2)：711-726.
[39]谢冬梅.中国农村收入分配、经济增长的贫困变动效应[J].中国农学通报.2008(4)：498-500.
[40]杨重琴.甘肃农业发展的问题与思路[J].甘肃农业.2000(6)：22-23.
[41]詹木思.尼日利亚农村可持续发展与减贫机制：对农业新发展的启示[博士论文].浙江大学国际教育学院.2009.
[42]Tutwiler, M. A., Straub, M. Making Agricultural Trade Work for the Poor.[J].Food and Agricultural Trade, An IPC Position Paper.2005:914.
[43]Bresciani, F. and Valdes, A. Beyond food production:The role of agriculture in poverty reduction[J]. Cheltenham U.K:Edward Elgar Publishing Limited.2007.
[44]曹洪民.中国农村开发式扶贫模式研究[博士论文].中国农业大学.2003：35.
[45]吕书奇.中国农村扶贫政策及成效研究[博士论文].中国农业科学院.2008.
[46]张建斌.人力资本视角下的农村反贫困问题研究[J].当代经济管理.2011(2)：6.
[47]景跃军,吴云龙.制约西部经济增长的人力资本“瓶颈”及对策[J].人口学刊.2003(6)：17.
[48]Schultz. T.W. Human capital:policy issues and research opportunities [J]. Human Resources.1972:84.
[49]周建华.我国农村贫困人口人力资本投资分析[J].财经问题研究.2011(7)：126.
[50]舒尔茨.论人力资本投资[M].北京：北京经济学院出版社.1992：200.
[51]祝伟.经济增长、收入分配与农村贫困—以甘肃为例[博士论文].兰州大学.2010.
[1]李石新.中国经济发展对农村贫困的影响研究[M].北京：中国经济出版社.2010：3.
[2]世界银行.2000/2001年世界发展报告：与贫困作斗争[R].北京：中国财政经济出版社.2001：12.
[3]赵永平.经济增长中的农村贫困问题研究[硕士论文].甘肃农业大学.2006：1.
[4]朗特里.贫困：城镇生活研究[M].伦敦：麦克米兰.1901.
[5]汤森.英国的贫困：关于家庭经济来源和生活标准的调查[M].伦敦：阿伦莱思和培根图书公司.1979：42.
[6]世界银行.1981年世界发展报告[R].北京：中国财政经济出版社.1981：24.
[7]世界银行.1990年世界发展报告[R].北京：中国财政经济出版社.1990：38.
[8]奥本海默.贫困的真相[M].伦敦：儿童贫困关注小组.1993：36.
[9]阿玛蒂亚.森.衡量贫困的社会学[A].改革出版社.1993.
[10]朗特里.贫困与进步：对约克镇的第二次社会调查[M].伦敦：朗曼出版公司.1941：102.
[11]奥珊斯基.如何度量贫困[M].北京：中国科学技术出版社.1989.
[12]孙建忠.台清地区社会救助政策发展之研究.台北：时英出版社.1995.
[13]张昕欣.经济增长、收入分配对农村减贫的影响—基于安徽农村住户抽样调查资料的实证研究[硕士论文].合肥工业大学.2010：12.
[14]林伯强.中国的经济增长、贫困减少与政策选择[J].经济研究.2003(12)：30-34.
[15]Sen, A.K. Poverty:An Ordinal Approach to Measurement of poverty [J]. Econometrica. 1976(44):219-231.
[16]Foster, J.E., J. Green and Eric Thorbecke. A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures [J]. Econometrica.1984(52):761-766.
[17]Ahluwalia, M., Carter, N. and Chenery, H. Growth and Poverty in Developing Countries [J]. Journal of Development Economics.1979(6):299-341.
[18]Fields, G.S. Employment, Income Distribution and Economic Growth in 7 Small Opening Countries [J]. Journal of Economics.1984(3):33.
[19]Demery, L. and Squire, L. Poverty in Africa:An Emerging Picture [R]. Washington, D.C. World Bank (mimeo).1995.
[20]Ravallion, M., S. H., Chen. What Can New Survey Data Tell Us About Recent Changes in Distribution and Poverty? [J].World Bank Economic Review.1997(12):357-382.
[21]Deininger, Klaus and Lyn Squire. New Ways of Looking at Old Issues:Inequality and Growth[J]. Journal of Development Economics.1998,57(2):259-287.
[22]Bhalla, Surjit. Imagine There Is No Country:Globalization and Its Consequences for Poverty[R]. Washington, D.C.:Institute of International Economics.2001.
[23]Dollar, David and Aart Kraay. Growth is Good for the Poor[J] Journal of Economic Growth. 2002(4):195-225.
[24]Kraay, Aart. When Is Growth Pro-Poor? Cross Country Evidence[J]. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper.2004.
[25]Foster, J E., M. Szekely. Is Economic Growth Good For the Poor? Tracking Low Income Using General Means[J].International Economic Review.2000(14):1143-1172.
[26]Ferreira, Francisco and Ricardo Paesde Barros. Climbing a Moving Mountain:Explaining the Decline of Inequality in Brazil from 1976 to 1996[J].Inter-American Development Bank (mimeo).1998.
[27]Bourguignon, Francois. The Pace of Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction[R].Paper presented at LACEA 2001 Conference.2001.
[28]Ravallion, Martin. Growth, Inequality and Poverty:Looking Beyond Averages[J].World Development 2001(29):1803-1815.
[29]Besley, Timothy and Robin Burgess. Halving Global Poverty[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives.2003(17):3-22.
[30]Balisacan, Arsenio M. and Nobuhiko Fuwa. Growth, Inequality, and Politics Revisited:A Developing—Country Case[J].Economics Letters.2003(79):53-58.
[31]Beck, Thorsten, Asll Demirguc—Kunt and Ross Levine. Finance, Inequality and Poverty: Cross—Country Evidence[R]. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper.2004.
[32]魏众,B.古斯塔夫森.中国转型时期的贫困变动分析[J].经济研究.1998(11)：64-68.
[33]陈少华,王燕.中国经济的增长和贫困的减少(1990—1999年的趋势研究)[J].财贸研究.2001(9)：3-11.
[34]黄季煜,Scott Rozelle,章奇.中国的经济增长、收入分配与贫困[D].北京大学中国经济研究中心论文.2004.
[35]胡鞍钢,胡琳琳,常志霄.中国经济增长与减少贫困[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版).2006(5)：105-115.
[36]万广华,张茵.收入增长与不平等对我国贫困的影响[J].经济研究.2006(6)：112-123.
[37]胡兵,赖景生,胡宝娣.经济增长、收入分配与贫困缓解—基于中国农村贫困变动的实证分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究.2007(5)：33-42.
[38]陈立中.收入增长和分配对我国农村减贫的影响—方法、特征与证据[J].经济学(季刊).2009(2)：711-726.
[39]谢冬梅.中国农村收入分配、经济增长的贫困变动效应[J].中国农学通报.2008(4)：498-500.
[40]杨重琴.甘肃农业发展的问题与思路[J].甘肃农业.2000(6)：22-23.
[41]詹木思.尼日利亚农村可持续发展与减贫机制：对农业新发展的启示[博士论文].浙江大学国际教育学院.2009.
[42]Tutwiler, M. A., Straub, M. Making Agricultural Trade Work for the Poor.[J].Food and Agricultural Trade, An IPC Position Paper.2005:914.
[43]Bresciani, F. and Valdes, A. Beyond food production:The role of agriculture in poverty reduction[J]. Cheltenham U.K:Edward Elgar Publishing Limited.2007.
[44]曹洪民.中国农村开发式扶贫模式研究[博士论文].中国农业大学.2003：35.
[45]吕书奇.中国农村扶贫政策及成效研究[博士论文].中国农业科学院.2008.
[46]张建斌.人力资本视角下的农村反贫困问题研究[J].当代经济管理.2011(2)：6.
[47]景跃军,吴云龙.制约西部经济增长的人力资本“瓶颈”及对策[J].人口学刊.2003(6)：17.
[48]Schultz. T.W. Human capital:policy issues and research opportunities [J]. Human Resources.1972:84.
[49]周建华.我国农村贫困人口人力资本投资分析[J].财经问题研究.2011(7)：126.
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