人民币汇率波动对中国产业结构的影响
摘要
汇率是一国货币兑换另一国货币的比率,是以一种货币表示的另一种货币的价格。产业结构则是指各产业的构成及各产业之间的联系和比例关系。汇率的长期变化会通过价格、资本、税收等等因素传导至国内企业的生产活动中,从而对国内经济的产品、资本甚至产业结构产生深远的影响。2005年人民币汇率制度改革和2008年的世界经济危机导致的后果之一,便是人民币兑美元汇率的持续走低和国外市场需求的大幅疲软,世界经济增速放缓的结果直接导致中国以出口拉动型经济为特点的产业结构受到巨大冲击。为了解释人民币汇率变动对中国产业结构的影响效果和影响程度,本文利用理论模型推导和实证模型分析两种研究方法,分别从理论和实证两个方面给出人民币汇率变动对中国产业结构影响的研究结论。
本文的理论模型从厂商的利润函数出发,在柯布-道格拉斯生产函数的约束下,对企业产品销售量的汇率弹性进行数理推导。模型结论认为影响生产者产量对汇率变动弹性的主要因素包括国内销售收入占总收入水平的比重、国外市场的产品需求弹性、国内价格的汇率弹性、国外价格的汇率弹性和国外资本品投入水平五个方面。在实证分析中,本文选取中国工业二位码分类中34个中国工业行业的固定资本投资和进出口总额月度数据,利用计量时间序列的对数模型来拟合人民币汇率变动对各个行业的固定资本投入和进出口水平的影响情况,并根据回归的结果进行聚类分析。实证结果说明人民币实际有效汇率的变动对中国各工业行业固定资本投资的影响较小,其主要影响是通过各行业的进出口产品结构来实现,人民币实际有效汇率的短期变动并不会对中国工业产业结构产生实质性作用,但是人民币汇率的长期变化趋势却能够对中国产业结构的变动具有深远的影响,而且正是这种刚性促进了中国工业产业结构的调整。
因此,现阶段为实现国内经济的平稳快速发展,中国需要保持人民币汇率升值的平稳性和汇率制度改革的渐进性,在鼓励外资进入的同时提高国内出口产品自主知识产权含量,加快工业结构的调整速度,改善能源需求结构,从根本上改变中国过度依赖外部需求和投资的经济增长方式。
最后,本文由于数据的不足没有对各行业总体经济情况受人民币汇率的影响进行深入的研究,今后若能够获得更为微观的统计数据,各位学者可以在本文的基础上来深入行业内部进行研究。
The exchange rate is a kind of rate about exchanging one country’s currency into another country's currency. And it is a kind of price where one currency is expressed in another currency. Industry structure refers to the composition of industries and the links and the proportion between them. The long-term changes in exchange rates will be transmitted to the production of domestic enterprises to deeply influence the domestic economy, capital and even the industrial structure by the price, capital, taxes, and so forth.
One consequence of RMB exchange rate reform in 2005 and world economic crisis in 2008 is that the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar continues sliding, and foreign demand weakens sharply. The world economic slowdown directly results a huge impact on China's industrial structure which is characterized by export-led economy. In order to explain the effect’s role and degree of exchange rate movements on China's industrial structure, this paper derived both from the theoretical and empirical analyses report the conclusion about the impact of the RMB exchange rate to Chinese industrial structure by using the theoretical model and empirical model of two research methods.
The theoretical model starts from the firm's profit function which is under the constraints of the Cobb - Douglas production function to deduce the exchange rate elasticity of the enterprise products’sales. The conclusion of this model indicates that the main factors which affect the exchange rate elasticity of the producers’sales include the level of domestic sales proportion of total revenues, the elasticity of foreign markets demand, the exchange rate elasticity of domestic prices, the exchange rate elasticity of foreign prices, and the level of foreign investment in capital goods.
In the empirical analysis, we select time series of the fixed capital investment, import and export volume data of 34 industries in China to fit the logarithm models of the impact of the exchange rate movements on the fixed capital investment and import and export levels of each industry, and then cluster the regression results. The empirical results show that there is little effect, which comes from the changes in real effective exchange rate, on the fixed capital investment in various industrial sectors in China, and the main impact is implemented by changing the import and export product mix. The short-term changes of RMB real effective exchange rate will not have a material effect on China’s industrial structure, but the long-term trend of RMB exchange rate has a profound impact on China's industrial structure, and it is this rigidity that contributed to the adjustment of industrial structure in China.
Therefore, in order to keep domestic economy developing stably and rapidly, China has to maintain a stable RMB exchange rate, reform the exchange rate system gradually, increase the IPR content of export products while encouraging foreign investment, accelerate the speed of industrial structure adjustment, improve the energy structure, and make a fundamental change of economic growth in China which excessively relay on external demand and investment.
Finally, because of the8 lack of data, this paper doesn’t make a further research in relation to the impact of RMB exchange rate on the overall economic situation of each industry. If more micro statistics can be gained in the future, a in-depth study within the industries on the basis of this paper will be done.
本文的理论模型从厂商的利润函数出发,在柯布-道格拉斯生产函数的约束下,对企业产品销售量的汇率弹性进行数理推导。模型结论认为影响生产者产量对汇率变动弹性的主要因素包括国内销售收入占总收入水平的比重、国外市场的产品需求弹性、国内价格的汇率弹性、国外价格的汇率弹性和国外资本品投入水平五个方面。在实证分析中,本文选取中国工业二位码分类中34个中国工业行业的固定资本投资和进出口总额月度数据,利用计量时间序列的对数模型来拟合人民币汇率变动对各个行业的固定资本投入和进出口水平的影响情况,并根据回归的结果进行聚类分析。实证结果说明人民币实际有效汇率的变动对中国各工业行业固定资本投资的影响较小,其主要影响是通过各行业的进出口产品结构来实现,人民币实际有效汇率的短期变动并不会对中国工业产业结构产生实质性作用,但是人民币汇率的长期变化趋势却能够对中国产业结构的变动具有深远的影响,而且正是这种刚性促进了中国工业产业结构的调整。
因此,现阶段为实现国内经济的平稳快速发展,中国需要保持人民币汇率升值的平稳性和汇率制度改革的渐进性,在鼓励外资进入的同时提高国内出口产品自主知识产权含量,加快工业结构的调整速度,改善能源需求结构,从根本上改变中国过度依赖外部需求和投资的经济增长方式。
最后,本文由于数据的不足没有对各行业总体经济情况受人民币汇率的影响进行深入的研究,今后若能够获得更为微观的统计数据,各位学者可以在本文的基础上来深入行业内部进行研究。
The exchange rate is a kind of rate about exchanging one country’s currency into another country's currency. And it is a kind of price where one currency is expressed in another currency. Industry structure refers to the composition of industries and the links and the proportion between them. The long-term changes in exchange rates will be transmitted to the production of domestic enterprises to deeply influence the domestic economy, capital and even the industrial structure by the price, capital, taxes, and so forth.
One consequence of RMB exchange rate reform in 2005 and world economic crisis in 2008 is that the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar continues sliding, and foreign demand weakens sharply. The world economic slowdown directly results a huge impact on China's industrial structure which is characterized by export-led economy. In order to explain the effect’s role and degree of exchange rate movements on China's industrial structure, this paper derived both from the theoretical and empirical analyses report the conclusion about the impact of the RMB exchange rate to Chinese industrial structure by using the theoretical model and empirical model of two research methods.
The theoretical model starts from the firm's profit function which is under the constraints of the Cobb - Douglas production function to deduce the exchange rate elasticity of the enterprise products’sales. The conclusion of this model indicates that the main factors which affect the exchange rate elasticity of the producers’sales include the level of domestic sales proportion of total revenues, the elasticity of foreign markets demand, the exchange rate elasticity of domestic prices, the exchange rate elasticity of foreign prices, and the level of foreign investment in capital goods.
In the empirical analysis, we select time series of the fixed capital investment, import and export volume data of 34 industries in China to fit the logarithm models of the impact of the exchange rate movements on the fixed capital investment and import and export levels of each industry, and then cluster the regression results. The empirical results show that there is little effect, which comes from the changes in real effective exchange rate, on the fixed capital investment in various industrial sectors in China, and the main impact is implemented by changing the import and export product mix. The short-term changes of RMB real effective exchange rate will not have a material effect on China’s industrial structure, but the long-term trend of RMB exchange rate has a profound impact on China's industrial structure, and it is this rigidity that contributed to the adjustment of industrial structure in China.
Therefore, in order to keep domestic economy developing stably and rapidly, China has to maintain a stable RMB exchange rate, reform the exchange rate system gradually, increase the IPR content of export products while encouraging foreign investment, accelerate the speed of industrial structure adjustment, improve the energy structure, and make a fundamental change of economic growth in China which excessively relay on external demand and investment.
Finally, because of the8 lack of data, this paper doesn’t make a further research in relation to the impact of RMB exchange rate on the overall economic situation of each industry. If more micro statistics can be gained in the future, a in-depth study within the industries on the basis of this paper will be done.
引文
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