基于碳汇目标的竹林经营模式及其策略研究
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摘要
全球气候变暖已成为不争的事实,森林碳汇是应对气候变化的有效措施。竹林是中国森林资源的重要组成部分,竹林碳汇必将成为我国应对气候变化的重要领域。本研究基于适量的农户调查,比较分析了农户现行竹林经营模式的特点及成本收益；在此基础上案例分析了碳汇目标竹林经营模式的特点及成本收益,并与现行经营模式进行比较；运用统计描述法和计量模型法分析农户选择基于碳汇目标竹林经营模式的意愿及影响因素,并提出引导农户选择该经营模式的策略。主要研究内容和结论如下：
(1)现行竹林经营模式分析。通过竹林经营专家访谈和竹林经营农户调查,农户现行竹林经营模式主要有笋用林、材用林和笋竹两用林三种,它们在目标产品、立地条件要求和经营管理措施方面表现出差异性,但它们都是以竹材、竹笋等林产品净收益最大化为经营目标。在此基础上,分析了农户现行竹林经营模式的成本收益情况,并用C-D函数建立资本和劳动力投入对竹林经营净收益影响的模型,分析各种资本和劳动力投入的经济可行性。结果表明,在现行平均经营水平下,增加化肥、农药和自用工投入对现行三种经营模式都经济可行；增加覆盖物投入对笋用林经营模式经济可行,对笋竹两用林经营模式经济不可行；增加雇工投入对笋用林和材用林经营模式经济可行,对笋竹两用林经营模式经济不可行。
(2)基于碳汇目标的竹林经营模式分析。以临安毛竹碳汇林基地为例,通过竹林碳汇经营专家和毛竹碳汇林经营者访谈,分析了碳汇目标竹林经营模式和现行竹林经营模式目标措施方面的差异；用投资回收期法对碳汇目标竹林经营模式的分析表明,当碳汇价格提高到现行国际碳交易价格时,其投资回收期比现代竹子科技园区的核心区短,且对碳汇价格敏感；对两种模式成本收益的比较表明,碳汇目标经营模式总成本较高,主要是劳动力和有机肥投入高,单位面积净收益对碳汇价格敏感；最后用Logistic三元选择模型分析了农户选择碳汇目标竹林经营模式的意愿及其影响因素,结果表明,对碳汇目标经营模式成本提高的预期对农户意愿选择影响最显著。
(3)引导农户选择基于碳汇目标竹林经营模式的策略分析。从明晰碳汇产权、建立森林碳汇交易机制、深化竹林碳汇相关技术研究、加强试验示范推广和推进分类管理等方面,提出了引导农户选择基于碳汇目标竹林经营模式的策略。
Global warming has become an indisputable fact. Forests play an important role in dealing with global change. Bamboo is an important part of Chinese forest resource and would play a special role in dealing with global change. This paper analyzed the characteristics and costs-benefits of the current bamboo management ways, based on moderate HHs'investigation. Costs-benefits of the carbon oriented bamboo management way and differences between carbon oriented and current bamboo management ways are analyzed with a case study. Using statistical description and economic model methods, this paper analyzed the aspiration and factors influencing HHs to choose carbon oriented bamboo management way, related strategies are presented. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:
(1) Current bamboo management way analysis. Bamboo shoots oriented, bamboo woods oriented, both oriented are three main bamboo management ways currently, using datas interviewed from bamboo manage specialists and HHs. Goal products, requirement for land situations and management measures expressed differently for them, while maximation for net economical benefits of forest products, such as bamboo woods and shoots is the same. Costs-benefits are also analyzed. Using C-D model, this paper analyzed the economic feasibility of different capital and labor inputs to net benefis. The result indicates, increasing fertilizer, pesticide and self labor inputs are economic feasible measures for the current 3 management ways, increasing land covers is feasible for bamboo shoots oriented management way, but infeasible for shoots and woods oriented. Increasing hire is feasible for bamboo shoots oriented and bamboo woods oriented, but infeasible for bamboo shoots and woods oriented.
(2) Carbon oriented bamboo management way analysis. Taking maso bamboo forestation in Lin'an as a case, with data interviewed from carbon oriented bamboo management specialists and operator, this paper analyzed the differences of goal and management measures between carbon oriented and current bamboo management ways. The payback period is sensitive to carbon sink price, and it would be short then core zone in Modern Bamboo Tech Park if the carbon sink price increased to current carbon price. The total cost is high for carbon oriented, mainly reflected in labor and organic fertilizer inputs. The net economic benefit is sensitive to carbon sink price. Using statistic and ternary choices Logistic model, this paper analyzed the aspiration and factors influencing HHs to choose carbon oriented bamboo management way. The cost increasing expects is the most significant factor influencing the aspiration.
(3) Strategy analysis for leading HHs to choose carbon oriented management way. Presented the strategies leading HHs to carbon oriented management way, including distinct rights of carbon sink, establish trade mechanim for forest carbon sink, deepen related tech research of bamboo carbon sink, strengthen demonstration and generalization, advance systemanic management.
(1)现行竹林经营模式分析。通过竹林经营专家访谈和竹林经营农户调查,农户现行竹林经营模式主要有笋用林、材用林和笋竹两用林三种,它们在目标产品、立地条件要求和经营管理措施方面表现出差异性,但它们都是以竹材、竹笋等林产品净收益最大化为经营目标。在此基础上,分析了农户现行竹林经营模式的成本收益情况,并用C-D函数建立资本和劳动力投入对竹林经营净收益影响的模型,分析各种资本和劳动力投入的经济可行性。结果表明,在现行平均经营水平下,增加化肥、农药和自用工投入对现行三种经营模式都经济可行；增加覆盖物投入对笋用林经营模式经济可行,对笋竹两用林经营模式经济不可行；增加雇工投入对笋用林和材用林经营模式经济可行,对笋竹两用林经营模式经济不可行。
(2)基于碳汇目标的竹林经营模式分析。以临安毛竹碳汇林基地为例,通过竹林碳汇经营专家和毛竹碳汇林经营者访谈,分析了碳汇目标竹林经营模式和现行竹林经营模式目标措施方面的差异；用投资回收期法对碳汇目标竹林经营模式的分析表明,当碳汇价格提高到现行国际碳交易价格时,其投资回收期比现代竹子科技园区的核心区短,且对碳汇价格敏感；对两种模式成本收益的比较表明,碳汇目标经营模式总成本较高,主要是劳动力和有机肥投入高,单位面积净收益对碳汇价格敏感；最后用Logistic三元选择模型分析了农户选择碳汇目标竹林经营模式的意愿及其影响因素,结果表明,对碳汇目标经营模式成本提高的预期对农户意愿选择影响最显著。
(3)引导农户选择基于碳汇目标竹林经营模式的策略分析。从明晰碳汇产权、建立森林碳汇交易机制、深化竹林碳汇相关技术研究、加强试验示范推广和推进分类管理等方面,提出了引导农户选择基于碳汇目标竹林经营模式的策略。
Global warming has become an indisputable fact. Forests play an important role in dealing with global change. Bamboo is an important part of Chinese forest resource and would play a special role in dealing with global change. This paper analyzed the characteristics and costs-benefits of the current bamboo management ways, based on moderate HHs'investigation. Costs-benefits of the carbon oriented bamboo management way and differences between carbon oriented and current bamboo management ways are analyzed with a case study. Using statistical description and economic model methods, this paper analyzed the aspiration and factors influencing HHs to choose carbon oriented bamboo management way, related strategies are presented. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:
(1) Current bamboo management way analysis. Bamboo shoots oriented, bamboo woods oriented, both oriented are three main bamboo management ways currently, using datas interviewed from bamboo manage specialists and HHs. Goal products, requirement for land situations and management measures expressed differently for them, while maximation for net economical benefits of forest products, such as bamboo woods and shoots is the same. Costs-benefits are also analyzed. Using C-D model, this paper analyzed the economic feasibility of different capital and labor inputs to net benefis. The result indicates, increasing fertilizer, pesticide and self labor inputs are economic feasible measures for the current 3 management ways, increasing land covers is feasible for bamboo shoots oriented management way, but infeasible for shoots and woods oriented. Increasing hire is feasible for bamboo shoots oriented and bamboo woods oriented, but infeasible for bamboo shoots and woods oriented.
(2) Carbon oriented bamboo management way analysis. Taking maso bamboo forestation in Lin'an as a case, with data interviewed from carbon oriented bamboo management specialists and operator, this paper analyzed the differences of goal and management measures between carbon oriented and current bamboo management ways. The payback period is sensitive to carbon sink price, and it would be short then core zone in Modern Bamboo Tech Park if the carbon sink price increased to current carbon price. The total cost is high for carbon oriented, mainly reflected in labor and organic fertilizer inputs. The net economic benefit is sensitive to carbon sink price. Using statistic and ternary choices Logistic model, this paper analyzed the aspiration and factors influencing HHs to choose carbon oriented bamboo management way. The cost increasing expects is the most significant factor influencing the aspiration.
(3) Strategy analysis for leading HHs to choose carbon oriented management way. Presented the strategies leading HHs to carbon oriented management way, including distinct rights of carbon sink, establish trade mechanim for forest carbon sink, deepen related tech research of bamboo carbon sink, strengthen demonstration and generalization, advance systemanic management.
引文
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