盈余数字分布与盈余管理程度
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摘要
2007年起执行的与国际趋同的新企业会计准则其目标之一就是提高会计信息质量。但是准则是不完全的,公允价值计量属性的引入、会计政策和会计估计的选择等都有可能成为盈余管理的工具。会计准则与盈余管理密切相关。而盈余管理会误导信息使用者,对资本市场造成冲击。已有的对新企业会计准则与盈余管理之间的研究多集中研究具体准则与盈余管理的关系,且并未对新企业会计准则执行前后的盈余管理程度进行对比,以判断新准则在多大程度上降低了盈余管理程度。
由于应计利润模型未能描绘整个市场的盈余管理程度,越来越多的学者采用盈余分布检验研究市场的盈余管理程度。本文基于人类的认知参考、主要数字和Benford法则等理论,采用Thomas检验和Kinnunen与Koskela提出的计算盈余管理程度方法,研究了新企业会计执行前后市场的和阈值0的临界公司的盈余管理程度,并分别对全样本采用t统计量检验盈余管理是否显著下降和对临界公司则采用Burgstahler and Dichev做稳定性检验。
研究发现：企业会计准则执行前后,全样本每股收益百分位为0的概率均高于理论概率,而百分位为9的概率均低于理论概率,表明企业管理当局对盈余数字进行了修饰,把盈余数字调整到盈余参考点处,但在新企业会计准则执行后,正盈利公司的盈余管理程度由2.96%下降到2.25%,整个市场的盈余管理程度由3.27%下降到1.35%,t检验表明下降程度并不显著；对阈值公司左侧(微利公司)的每股收益百分位数字检验发现,百分位为1和2的实际概率高于理论概率,而百分位为9的概率低于理论概率,破坏了Benford法则；新企业会计准则执行后,微利公司的盈余管理程度由6.6%提高到12.61%,对此,我们认为尽管长期资产减值准备不再允许转回,但是公允价值计量属性的运用,为微利公司提供了盈余管理工具。阈值公司的盈余管理程度高于整个市场的盈余管理,表明低收益公司具有更强烈的盈余管理动机。
Since 2007, the objective of the implementation of the new accounting standard converging with the international is to improve the quality of accounting information. But the criteria is not complete, the introduction of fair value measurement, accounting policies and estimates choices may become a tool for earnings management, and accounting standards are closely related to earnings management。The earnings management would mislead users of information, impact on capital market。Existing literatures are maily focusing on the relationshiop between specific criteria and earnings management, not comparing the earnings management before and after implementation of new accounting standards to determine whether the accounting standard has decrease the level of the earnings management。
Since accruals model failed to describe the level of earnings management of the whoel market, more and more researcher uesed distribution tests. Based on Cognitive Reference, Major Figures and Benford law theory, we used Thomas test and method of calculation of earnings management proposed bu Kinnunen and Koskela to study the market and the critical threshold of 0 company.
We found:before and after the implementation of accounting standards, the real probability of percentile figure 0 of the whole sample were higher than the theoretical probability, while 9 reverse, it showed that corporate management adjusted the earnings to the reference point, but after the implementation of new accounting standards, the level of earnings management of profitable company decreased from 2.96% to 2.25%, the market's decreased from the 3.27% to 1.35%, while t test showed the range is not significant; the real probability of the percentile figure 1 and 2 of low-profit company were higher than the theoretical probability, while 9 reverse, destroyed the Benford law; after the implementation of the new accounting standards, the level of earning management with low-profit increased from 6.6% to 12.61%, for it, we thought that despite the impairment of long-term assets are no longer allowed back, but the fair value measurement attribute become the tool for low-profit company to adjust earnings. The earnings management lever of the low-profitable companies were higher than the whole maket, it shows that the low-profitable has a stronger motivation.
由于应计利润模型未能描绘整个市场的盈余管理程度,越来越多的学者采用盈余分布检验研究市场的盈余管理程度。本文基于人类的认知参考、主要数字和Benford法则等理论,采用Thomas检验和Kinnunen与Koskela提出的计算盈余管理程度方法,研究了新企业会计执行前后市场的和阈值0的临界公司的盈余管理程度,并分别对全样本采用t统计量检验盈余管理是否显著下降和对临界公司则采用Burgstahler and Dichev做稳定性检验。
研究发现：企业会计准则执行前后,全样本每股收益百分位为0的概率均高于理论概率,而百分位为9的概率均低于理论概率,表明企业管理当局对盈余数字进行了修饰,把盈余数字调整到盈余参考点处,但在新企业会计准则执行后,正盈利公司的盈余管理程度由2.96%下降到2.25%,整个市场的盈余管理程度由3.27%下降到1.35%,t检验表明下降程度并不显著；对阈值公司左侧(微利公司)的每股收益百分位数字检验发现,百分位为1和2的实际概率高于理论概率,而百分位为9的概率低于理论概率,破坏了Benford法则；新企业会计准则执行后,微利公司的盈余管理程度由6.6%提高到12.61%,对此,我们认为尽管长期资产减值准备不再允许转回,但是公允价值计量属性的运用,为微利公司提供了盈余管理工具。阈值公司的盈余管理程度高于整个市场的盈余管理,表明低收益公司具有更强烈的盈余管理动机。
Since 2007, the objective of the implementation of the new accounting standard converging with the international is to improve the quality of accounting information. But the criteria is not complete, the introduction of fair value measurement, accounting policies and estimates choices may become a tool for earnings management, and accounting standards are closely related to earnings management。The earnings management would mislead users of information, impact on capital market。Existing literatures are maily focusing on the relationshiop between specific criteria and earnings management, not comparing the earnings management before and after implementation of new accounting standards to determine whether the accounting standard has decrease the level of the earnings management。
Since accruals model failed to describe the level of earnings management of the whoel market, more and more researcher uesed distribution tests. Based on Cognitive Reference, Major Figures and Benford law theory, we used Thomas test and method of calculation of earnings management proposed bu Kinnunen and Koskela to study the market and the critical threshold of 0 company.
We found:before and after the implementation of accounting standards, the real probability of percentile figure 0 of the whole sample were higher than the theoretical probability, while 9 reverse, it showed that corporate management adjusted the earnings to the reference point, but after the implementation of new accounting standards, the level of earnings management of profitable company decreased from 2.96% to 2.25%, the market's decreased from the 3.27% to 1.35%, while t test showed the range is not significant; the real probability of the percentile figure 1 and 2 of low-profit company were higher than the theoretical probability, while 9 reverse, destroyed the Benford law; after the implementation of the new accounting standards, the level of earning management with low-profit increased from 6.6% to 12.61%, for it, we thought that despite the impairment of long-term assets are no longer allowed back, but the fair value measurement attribute become the tool for low-profit company to adjust earnings. The earnings management lever of the low-profitable companies were higher than the whole maket, it shows that the low-profitable has a stronger motivation.
引文
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[2]魏明海,2000：《盈余管理基本理论及其研究评述》,《会计研究》第9期
[3]阎达五、耿建新、刘文鹏,2001：《我国上市公司发行新股融资行为的实证研究》,《会计研究》第9期
[4]张圣平、熊德华等,2003：《现代金融学的困境与行为金融学的崛起》,《金融研究》第4期
[5]杜滨、李若山、俞乔,2003：《我国上市公司盈余管理程度研究》,《中国金融学》第6期
[6]刘煜辉、贺菊煌,2003：《中国股市中信息反应模式的实证分析》,《管理世界》第08期
[7]陈晓,戴翠玉,2004：《A股亏损公司的盈余管理行为与手段研究》,《中国会计评论》第12期
[8]邵军、边弘,2005：《A股亏损公司利用线下项目进行盈余管理的实证研究》,《统计与决策》第3期
[9]孙铮、刘凤委、李增泉,2005：《市场化程度、政府干预与企业债务期限结构——来自我国上市公司的经验证据》,《经济研究》第5期
[10]白云霞、王亚平、吴联生,2005：《业绩低于阈值公司的盈余管理——来自控制权转移公司后续资产处置的证据》,《管理世界》第5期
[11]廖理,许艳,2005：《中国投资者对不同手段的盈余管理行为的识别》,《清华大学学报(自然科学版)》,45(9)：1268-1272.
[12]支晓强,童盼,2005：《盈余管理、控制权转移与独立董事变更——兼论独立董事治理作用的发挥》,《管理世界》第11期
[13]王亚平、吴联生、白云霞,2005：《中国上市公司盈余管理的频率和幅度》,《经济研究》第12期
[14]赵春光,2006：《资产减值与盈余管理——论<资产减值>准则的政策含义》,《会计研究》第3期
[15]王乐锦,2006：《我国新会计准则中公允价值的运用：意义与特征》,《会计研究》第5期
[16]张祥建、徐晋,2006：《盈余管理的原因、动机及测度方法前沿研究综述》,《南开经济研究》第6期
[17]孙铮、李增泉、王景斌,2006：《所有权性质、会计信息与债务契约——来自我国上市公司的经验证据》,《管理世界》第10期
[18]邵红霞、方军雄,2006：《我国上市公司无形资产价值相关性研究——基于无形资产明细分类信息的再检验》,《会计研究》第12期
[19]朱文明、王昊、陈伟,2007：《基于Benford法则的舞弊检测方法研究》,《数理统计与管理》第1期
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[21]沈烈、张西萍,2007：《新会计准则与盈余管理》,《会计研究》第2期
[22]吴联生、薄仙慧、王亚平,2007：《避免亏损的盈余管理程度上市公司与非上市公司的比较》,《会计研究》第2期
[23]张苏彤、康智慧,2007：《信息时代舞弊审计新工具——奔福德定律及其来自中国上市公司的实证测试》,《审计研究》第3期[24]王建新,2007：《公司治理结构、盈余管理与长期资产减值转回》,《会计研究》第5期
[25]李延喜、包世泽等,2007：《薪酬激励、董事会监管与上市公司盈余管理》,《南开管理评论》第6期
[26]王克敏,王志超,2007：《高管控制权、报酬与盈余管理——基于中国上市公司的实证研究》,《管理世界》第7期
[27]张然、陆正飞、叶康涛,2007：《会计准则变迁与长期资产减值》,《管理世界》第8期
[28]吴联生、王亚平,2007：《盈余管理程度的估计模型与经验证据：一个综述》,《经济研究》第8期
[29]于李胜,2007：《盈余管理动机、信息质量与政府管制》,《会计研究》第8期
[30]岳衡、陈溪、赵龙凯,2007：《有限记忆与盈余数据的异常分布》,《金融研究》第11期
[31]代冰彬、陆正飞、张然,2007：《资产减值：稳健性还是盈余管理》,《会计研究》第12期
[32]陈千里,2008：《股权激励、盈余操纵与国有股减持》,《中山大学学报》第1期
[33]朱星文、蔡吉甫、谢盛纹,2008：《公司治理、盈余质量与经理报酬——来自我国上市公司数据的检验,《南开管理评论》第2期
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[38]叶建芳、周兰、李丹蒙、郭琳,2009：《管理层动机、会计政策选择与盈余管理——基于新会计准则下上市公司金融资产分类的实证研究》,《会计研究》第3期
[39]陈光谷、郑国枝、杨美玲、钟绍熙,2009：《盈余管理与盈余数字进位》,《经济与管理论坛(Journal of Economics and Management))), vol5, No.1,135-157
[40]谭洪涛、蔡春,2009：《新准则实施会计质量实证研究——来自A股上市公司的经验证据》,《中国会计评论》第6期
[41]赵静梅、吴风云,2009：《数字崇拜下的金融资产价格异象》,《经济研究》第6期
[42]肖淑芳、张晨宇、张超、轩然,2009：《股权激励计划公告前的盈余管理——来自中国上市公司的经验证据》,《南开管理评论》第12期
[43]娄芳、李玉博、原红旗,2010：《新会计准则对现金股利和会计盈余关系影响的研究》,《管理世界》第1期
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