配电网开放模式下电力销售企业购售电决策研究
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摘要
中国电力工业自20世纪80年代改革以来,从原有的电力系统垂直一体化模式,发展到现在发电侧开发,形成发电市场,并将逐步开发输电环节,最后开放配电环节,形成电力销售市场。
本文首先借鉴国外有代表性国家电力市场运营模式,结合中国电力工业的实际情况提出了中国未来电力市场运营模式将会采用“准四段式”模式。在此基础上对“准四段式”模式下的电力销售企业的购电决策和售电决策进行了全面分析和研究。
电力销售企业的购电决策包括电量预测和购电分配两个方面。考虑月电量的季节性变化的特点,本文提出了基于季节指数和灰色预测的组合预测模型。同时在对电力销售企业进行了盈亏分析和敏感性分析的基础上,给出了需求确定情况下和需求随机情况下的最优购电分配模型。
电力销售企业的售电决策包括电价研究和营销策略两个方面。本文通过分析电价的联动效应,包括与输电企业、发电企业和电力用户的联动效应,建立了基于电力产品的替代效应和电力需求弹性的电价定价模型,并给出了解析解。由于电力市场最终将走向买方市场,为了获取最大利润,配电网开放模式下的电力销售企业必须采取各种营销策略,本文在分析了电力市场营销特点的基础上提出了电力销售企业可以采用的若干营销策略,包括市场竞争策略、产品与服务策略、价格策略、销售渠道策略和促销策略等。
The Chinese electric power industry has reformed since 20 centuries 80' s, developing the perpendicular integral mode of original electric power to open generating electricity and forming the generating electricity market. Now transporting electricity will be opened gradually and selling electricity must be opened at last to form selling market. With the mode of selling market opened, the paper gave a completely analysis and study about buying and selling electric power.The paper firstly learned from. some abort representative operating modes and characteristics in electric power market, and gave the "four segments" operating modes of Chinese power market in future combing actual circumstance in Chinese electric power. Then the paper study about buying power electricity included estimating the electricity capacity and the study about selling power electricity included pricing and selling strategy.The combing model with gray estimating method and season index number was given in paper considering the seasonal variety characteristics of using power electricity and season index number method considering the season variety. At the same time, the paper gave the superior electricity assigns model under the certain circumstance in need descends with require, combining proceeding the substantial evidence analyzes..On the base of analyzing the factors that influenced electric price, the principle about establishing electric price, the classification of electric price, the way about establishing electric price, the paper established the electric price list price model of the flexibility with the electric power through analyzing the combinable effect of electric price, including with the combinable effect of the carrying and generating electric business enterprise and the electric power customer,The electric power market is end to head for the buyer market. For the sake of obtaining the biggest profits, the electric power sale business enterprise that charged barbed wire net open mode bottom must adopt every kind of marketing strategy. The thesis discussed the electric power market marketing strategy combines on the foundation of analyzing the electric power market marketing characteristics, putting forward the electric power some selling strategy that business enterprise can adopt, including the market competition strategy, product and service strategy, price strategy, sale outlet strategy and promote sales strategy etc.
本文首先借鉴国外有代表性国家电力市场运营模式,结合中国电力工业的实际情况提出了中国未来电力市场运营模式将会采用“准四段式”模式。在此基础上对“准四段式”模式下的电力销售企业的购电决策和售电决策进行了全面分析和研究。
电力销售企业的购电决策包括电量预测和购电分配两个方面。考虑月电量的季节性变化的特点,本文提出了基于季节指数和灰色预测的组合预测模型。同时在对电力销售企业进行了盈亏分析和敏感性分析的基础上,给出了需求确定情况下和需求随机情况下的最优购电分配模型。
电力销售企业的售电决策包括电价研究和营销策略两个方面。本文通过分析电价的联动效应,包括与输电企业、发电企业和电力用户的联动效应,建立了基于电力产品的替代效应和电力需求弹性的电价定价模型,并给出了解析解。由于电力市场最终将走向买方市场,为了获取最大利润,配电网开放模式下的电力销售企业必须采取各种营销策略,本文在分析了电力市场营销特点的基础上提出了电力销售企业可以采用的若干营销策略,包括市场竞争策略、产品与服务策略、价格策略、销售渠道策略和促销策略等。
The Chinese electric power industry has reformed since 20 centuries 80' s, developing the perpendicular integral mode of original electric power to open generating electricity and forming the generating electricity market. Now transporting electricity will be opened gradually and selling electricity must be opened at last to form selling market. With the mode of selling market opened, the paper gave a completely analysis and study about buying and selling electric power.The paper firstly learned from. some abort representative operating modes and characteristics in electric power market, and gave the "four segments" operating modes of Chinese power market in future combing actual circumstance in Chinese electric power. Then the paper study about buying power electricity included estimating the electricity capacity and the study about selling power electricity included pricing and selling strategy.The combing model with gray estimating method and season index number was given in paper considering the seasonal variety characteristics of using power electricity and season index number method considering the season variety. At the same time, the paper gave the superior electricity assigns model under the certain circumstance in need descends with require, combining proceeding the substantial evidence analyzes..On the base of analyzing the factors that influenced electric price, the principle about establishing electric price, the classification of electric price, the way about establishing electric price, the paper established the electric price list price model of the flexibility with the electric power through analyzing the combinable effect of electric price, including with the combinable effect of the carrying and generating electric business enterprise and the electric power customer,The electric power market is end to head for the buyer market. For the sake of obtaining the biggest profits, the electric power sale business enterprise that charged barbed wire net open mode bottom must adopt every kind of marketing strategy. The thesis discussed the electric power market marketing strategy combines on the foundation of analyzing the electric power market marketing characteristics, putting forward the electric power some selling strategy that business enterprise can adopt, including the market competition strategy, product and service strategy, price strategy, sale outlet strategy and promote sales strategy etc.
引文
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