中印自由贸易区的可行性及推进战略研究
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摘要
在经济全球化加速发展,多边贸易谈判进展缓慢的背景下,区域经济合作在世界各地蓬勃开展起来。自由贸易区(FTA)尤其是双边FTA以其主动性、灵活性和广泛性等优点成为目前区域经济合作的主要方式。随着全球金融危机引发的全球贸易保护主义升温,许多国家转向强化区域贸易自由化安排,缔结双边FTA。FTA已成为当前各国规避全球贸易保护主义风险、促进贸易发展的一个重要手段。中国和印度两个世界上最大的发展中国家和新兴经济体也顺应潮流,加快推行各自的FTA战略。随着中印经贸合作的快速发展,中印两国也表现出了组建FTA的意愿。
2003年6月印度瓦杰帕伊总理访华时提出了建立中印FTA的建议,中国对此给予了积极的回应。2005年4月温家宝总理访问印度时,双方签署了《中华人民共和国与印度共和国联合声明》,两国要全面拓展包括贸易和投资在内的经济合作,并致力于2015年建立中印自由贸易区,为此,两国总理宣布启动联合工作组。经过共同努力,中印双方就货物贸易、服务贸易、投资、贸易便利化、经济合作以及结论和建议等全部章节达成共识,2007年10月如期完成了联合研究报告。报告指出,中印应通过建立RTA(区域贸易协定),相互减少和消除贸易壁垒、推动贸易自由化、改善投资环境,加强经济合作,实现互利共赢,促进亚洲经济一体化。但由于印度仍不承认中国的“市场经济地位”,印度政界和工商界对和中国合作可能带来的竞争和影响十分谨慎和担忧,以至于此事仍停留在研究报告阶段。为了扫除中印FTA实现道路上的障碍,深入研究中印经济贸易的互补性和竞争性,研究中印FTA的预期效应和存在的困难因素,探索推进中印FTA的战略和实现步骤就显得非常必要,具有重要的研究价值和现实意义。
本文以建立自由贸易区的传统收益和非传统收益理论为基础,以探索中印是否具备建立自由贸易区的基础为主线,以建立中印自由贸易区的预期效应为核心,从理论、现实和实证等多层面解析中印经贸关系的互补性及巨大发展潜力,揭示中印建立自由贸易区的诸多预期效应和可能面临的困难,并提出克服障碍因素推进中印自由贸易区建设的战略构想。论文的基本研究思路是：(1)梳理中印建立自由贸易区的理论依据,为全文的研究提供理论基础。(2)分析近年来中印参与FTA的积极态度及各自的战略意图,以及中印日益密切的经贸关系,为中印建立FTA的研究奠定现实基础。(3)进一步从现实性分析和实证分析层面揭示中印宏观经济和贸易关系的互补性大于竞争性从而具备建立自由贸易区条件的现实。(4)用定量分析与定性分析相结合的方法,从多层面揭示中印建立自由贸易区可能的静态经济效应、动态经济效应和非传统收益,揭示中印自由贸易区面临的经济、政治及历史等方面诸多阻碍因素。(5)在现实性分析和实证分析、定量分析与定性分析的基础上提出推动中印自由贸易区早日实现的战略构想。具体来看,全文主要研究内容和观点如下：
1.系统梳理和解析中印建立自由贸易区的相关理论,明晰全文研究的理论依据和分析框架。分析表明,传统收益理论中的关税同盟理论和自由贸易区理论、新区域主义的非传统收益理论以及发展经济学对发展中国家间经济一体化进行理论解释的中心—外围理论和国际依附理论是分析中印自由贸易区问题的主要理论依据,这些理论着重探讨了自由贸易协定的福利效应以及影响因素。
2.现实性分析中印各自参与FTA的实践、战略意图及双边贸易关系的发展。中印参与FTA的积极态度及两国战略意图的诸多共同之处有利于两国间开展区域贸易一体化。20世纪90年代以来,中印两国都因不断深化改革而使经济快速增长,两国各自的对外贸易及中印双边贸易也迅速发展。整体来说,近几年中印双边贸易关系呈现出越来越紧密的发展趋势,成为建立中印自由贸易区的重要基础。但双边贸易和两国快速发展的经济和经济总量相比较还是极不相称的,双边贸易额仍偏低且具有非对称性,双方广阔、深厚的市场潜力有待于在自贸区框架下进一步挖掘。
3.分别从宏观经济层面与具体贸易结构层面实证分析中印经济的互补性及竞争性。中印经济在发展水平、国民经济结构和经济发展模式等方面都存在差异,互补性很强,宏观经济层面具备建立自由贸易区的基础。通过计算贸易专业化指数和产业内贸易指数,从产业间和产业内两个方面考察了中印贸易关系。中印两国部分劳动密集型产品在世界市场上具有一定的竞争性,在初级产品和资本技术密集型产品上形成优势产业互补关系,互补性大于竞争性,这种情形有利于中印自由贸易区的建立。中印之间也存在较强的产业内贸易互补,但两国目前仍以产业间贸易为主。两国在信息技术产业、机电产品、制药业、煤和铁矿石等产品领域具有发展产业内贸易的潜力,在自由贸易区框架内两国产业内贸易的产品领域和规模都会不断扩大。由于中印在主要进出口商品构成及进出口伙伴国上具有相似性,因此两国在第三国市场上存竞争,这在一定程度上限制了两国经济交往的深化。总的来看,中印贸易关系既有互补性又有竞争性,但互补性大于竞争性,这种情形有利于中印自由贸易区的建立,中印两国已基本具备了组建FTA的现实基础。
4.用定量分析与定性分析相结合的方法从传统收益和非传统收益两个方面对中印FTA预期的效应进行分析。通过计算中印间贸易比重指数和使用贸易引力模型定量分析研究了中印自由贸易区FTA的建立对区内具有巨大的贸易扩大效应。中印双边贸易潜力巨大,只是目前两国的贸易壁垒比较严重,两国若进一步进行机制性区域贸易合作,一定能够产生更大的贸易创造效应。中印两国的贸易创造效应均为正,这与关税同盟理论中的贸易创造效应是相吻合的。中印建立FTA具有规模经济、激化竞争、扩大投资和优化资源配置等动态效应,投资扩大效应尤其突出,中印FTA的建立一方面能增加来自第三国的FDI(即直接投资),另一方面也能大规模增加来自伙伴国的FDI。本文还对中印建立FTA的非传统收益做了尝试性探讨。这些非传统收益主要包括：获取政治收益,向外界发出信号,提高中印两国在国际事务中的地位和谈判能力,为两国提供“保险”,促进两国协调发展,改善两国的安全,扩展能源合作空间等。
5.从经济、政治、历史等方面全面深入的分析了建立中印FTA的障碍因素。经济方面的障碍因素主要包括：中印要素禀赋和比较优势的相似性决定两国贸易具有竞争性,印度奉行内向型经济发展战略和外贸战略,印度的高关税,印度频繁对我国实施贸易保护措施且愈演愈烈,中印贸易不平衡,印度一直不承认中国的“市场经济地位”；政治方面的障碍因素主要包括：中印边界问题及1962年中印战争,西藏问题,日本因素,美国因素,中巴关系,印度散布“中国威胁论”,中印两国政治体制和意识形态存在差异等；历史及其他障碍因素主要有：两国民间交流与沟通较少,彼此认知上存在误解和偏见,两国文化观念存在较大差异,交通运输问题,构建中印FTA存在技术障碍。中印建立FTA必须要面对和解决这些障碍和制约因素,否则可能使两国关系陷入困境,甚至断送中印FTA的美好前程。
6.在现行中印关系框架下,高额的交易成本已经限制了两国经贸关系的进一步扩展和深化,FTA是中印两国间实现巨大预期收益的一种制度安排。本文在前面分析的基础上首先确定了推进中印FTA制度安排应坚持的原则,并借鉴北美自由贸易区的经验结合中印两国的现实情况及世界多边贸易体制的要求,从新制度经济学的角度提出推进中印FTA早日实现的战略构想,对中印FTA的制度安排应遵循的原则和可能的推进步骤进行了研究,并设想了中印FTA分四个阶段逐步实施的阶段步骤。
本文采用了规范分析与实证分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合及理论联系实际的研究方法。本文的主要创新或拓展性研究是：基于传统收益和非传统收益两个视角较全面分析了中印自由贸易区可能的效应,扩展了中印建立自由贸易区预期效应的研究。从经济、政治、历史等多个角度,全面、深入的考察了中印建立自由贸易区的障碍因素,弥补了目前学术界对此问题的研究零散且不够深入的不足；借鉴北美自由贸易区的发展经验并结合两国的现实情况及世界多边贸易体制的要求,从新制度经济学的角度提出了推进中印FTA早日实现的战略构想和分四步循序渐进实施的阶段步骤。
In the background of accelerated economic globalization and the slow progress of multilateral trade negotiations, regional economic cooperation develops vigorously around the world. Free Trade Area (FTA), in particular bilateral FTA, becomes the main form of regional economic cooperation because of its advantage of initiative, flexibility and universality, etc. Due to the rising global trade protectionism triggered by global financial crisis, many countries have turned to strengthen regional trade liberalization arrangements and conclude bilateral FTA. FTA has become important for many countries to avoid the risk of trade protectionism and to promote the development of trade. As the world's largest developing countries and emerging economies, both China and India follow this trend, accelerating the implementation of FTA strategy respectively. With the rapid development of economic and trade cooperation, China and India also show the willingness to set up FTA.
When Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee visited China and proposed to establish FTA in June 2003, China responded positively. In April 2005, Premier Wen Jiabao visited India, and signed "Declaration between the PRC and the Republic of India" with India. The declaration proposed that the two countries should develop a comprehensive economic cooperation, including trade and investment, and committed to establish free trade area between China and India in 2015. For this, the two leaders announced the launch of a joint working group. Through efforts, China and India reached a consensus on all the chapters, including trade in goods, trade in services, investment, trade facilitation,economic cooperation, the conclusions and recommendations, etc. A joint research report was completed on schedule in October 2007. According to the report, India and China should reduce and eventually eliminate trade barriers, promote trade liberalization, improve the investment environment, enhance economic cooperation and realize mutual benefits and promote economic integration of Asian through establishing regional trade agreements (RTA). However, because India still refuses to acknowledge China's "market economy status", Indian politicians and businesses are cautious and worry about the potential competition and impact brought by cooperation with China. As a result, the establishment of RTA remains stalled in the research stage. In order to remove the obstacles on the establishment of FTA, it is crucial to study both the trade complementarities and competitions between China and India in depth, to investigate the expected effects and difficulties of the China-India FTA, and to explore strategies to promote China-India FTA and implementation steps, which has essential research value and practical significance.
This thesis is based on the traditional and non-traditional gain of free trade area, exploring whether or not there is basis for establishing free trade area with India, with the expected effects of FTA as the core; analysis complementary and huge development potential of the two countries from theory, reality and empirical aspects, reveals expected effect and many difficulties in establishing a free trade area, and proposes strategic visions to overcome the barriers and promote the Sino-Indian free trade area. The basic ideas of this thesis are:(1) combing the theoretical basis for the establishment of free trade area to provide theoretical basis of the full text. (2) analyzing positive attitude of the two countries on the participation in FTA and their own strategic intentions and the increasingly close economic in recent years, to establish realistic basis for the study of establishing FTA. (3) from the reality and theory further revealing the level of macroeconomic are more complementary than competitive in trade relations between India and China, thus there are chances for establishing FTA. (4) using qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis methods to reveal the possible static and dynamic economic effects and non-traditional income, revealing the economic, political and historical and many other obstacles to establish FTA. (5) based on the real and empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, proposing strategic vision to promote the early realization of FTA. Specifically, the main contents and views of the full text are as follows:
1. Sort out and resolve the theory of FTA between India and China, clear theoretical basis and analytical framework of the full text. It has been shown that the customs union theory and free trade theory of traditional income theory, the non-traditional revenue of the new regionalism, the center-periphery theory explaining integration among developing countries of development economics, and the international dependency theory are the main theoretical basis to analyze the problem of FTA between India and China; these theories focus on the welfare effects and influencing factors of free trade agreements.
2. Analyze the practice, strategic intent and bilateral trade relations of their participation in the Sino-Indian FTA from the reality aspect. The positive attitude in the participation in FTA and the similarities of strategic intentions between the two countries makes for the regional trade integration. Since the last decade of 20th century, economy of China and India grow rapidly due to the deepening reform, and foreign trade of each country and their bilateral trade developed rapidly. Overall, bilateral trade between China and India shows the trend of closer relationship in recent years, which is an important basis for establishing FTA. However, it is disproportionate for bilateral trade compared to the rapid development of bilateral economic and economic output. Bilateral trade remains low and is non-symmetric; both the broadth and the depth of the market potential should be explored within the framework of FTA.
3. Empirical analysis of complementarities and competition between India and China from the macroeconomic level and structure level of specific trade economic respectively. There are differences between India and China on economic development level, economic structure and economic development models. Being highly complementary, there is basis for establishing FTA between the two economies from the macroeconomic level. By calculating the trade specialization index and the index of intra-industry trade, China and India trade relations from inter-industry and industry are investigated. There is competition for some labor-intensive products between the two countries in world markets; while in primary products and capital and high-technology industries, complementarity is more than competition; all the situations are conducive to establish FTA. Between China and India, there is a strong complement in intra-industry trade, but the majority of the trade between the two countries is still inter-industry. There are potentials to develop intra-industry trade between the two countries in the information technology industry, mechanical and electrical products, pharmaceuticals, coal and iron ore and other products, and the product areas and the scale in inter-industry trade will expand in the framework of FTA between the two countries. As there is similarity between the main import and export commodities and import and export partner countries for China and India, there is competition for the two countries in the third country market, which to some extent, limits the deepening of bilateral economic exchanges. Overall, there are both complementarities and competitions in Sino-Indian trade relations, but complementarity is more than competition, there is realistic basis to form China-India FTA.
4. Analyse expected effect of the China-India FTA from traditional and non-traditional gain aspects using quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis. By calculating the proportion of trade index between China and India, using the gravity model of trade to analyse quantitatively, we conclude that there is great expansion effect by establishing FTA. There is great trade potential in China-India bilateral trade, but the trade barriers between the two countries are tremendous; if the two countries cooperate on the regional trade mechanism further, they will be able to generate greater trade creation effect. The trade creation effect is positive for China and India, which is consistent with the trade creation effect of customs union theory. There is dynamic effect including economies of scale, intensified competition, investment and optimize the allocation of resources by establishing FTA with India, particularly the investment expansion effect is conspicuous; the establishment of Sino-India FTA could increase FDI (that is direct investment) from both the third country and the partner countries. This paper also made a trial research on the non-traditional gain by establishing the China-India FTA. These non-traditional gains include:accessing political gain, signaling to the outside, improving the status in international affairs and negotiating capacity for both China and India, providing "insurance" for the two countries, promote the coordinated development between the two countries, improving their security, expanding energy cooperation space, etc.
5. Comprehensively and deeply analyse barriers of the establishment of FTA from economic, political, historical and other aspects. Economic barriers include:the similarity of factor endowments and comparative advantage between China and India determine the competitive in trade between the two countries, India pursues an inward-looking economic development strategies and foreign trade strategy, India's high tariffs, India carries out trade protection measures frequently to China and intensified, imbalance of trade in India and China, India has not acknowledged China's "market economy status". Political barriers include:the Sino-Indian border issue and the war in 1962, the Tibet issue, the Japanese factor, the U.S. factor, the Sino-Pakistan relations, spreading of the "China threat" theory by India, different political systems and ideology between China and India, etc. Historical and other barriers:few non-governmental communicate between the two countries, cognitive misunderstanding and prejudice between the two countries, difference in cultural values, transportation problems, technical barriers exist in Establishment of FTA. The two countries must face and resolve these obstacles and constraints in establishment of FTA, otherwise, the relationship between the two countries may deteriorate, or even ruin the good prospects of Sino-Indian FTA.
6. Within the existing framework of China-Indian relations, the high transaction costs have limited the further expansion and deepening of bilateral economic and trade relations, FTA is expected to be a system arrangement achieving great benefits for both China and India. Based on the analysis in previous paper, we first identified the principles that should adhere in institutional arrangements to promote the China-Indian FTA, and learn the experience of the North American Free Trade Area and combine with the reality between China and India and the requirements of the world multilateral trade system, recommend the strategic concept from new institutional economics to promote the establishment of China-Indian FTA as early as possible, study the principles that should follow in the institutional arrangements of FTA and possible steps to promote, and conceived in four phases in FTA to implement gradually.
In this paper, the normative analysis and empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis and theory with practical research methods are used. The main innovation or expansion of this research is:based on the traditional income and non-traditional gain perspective to give a more comprehensive analysis of the possible effect of the China-Indian FTA, expanding the expected effect of establishing FTA. This paper also gives a comprehensive, in-depth study of the China-Indian FTA barriers from economic, political, historical, and other point of view, to make up for the scattered study depth currently in academic research on this issue; learning from the North American FTA development experience combined with the reality of the two countries and the world multilateral trade system requirements, proposing strategic idea to promote the early realization of China-India FTA and to implement the four-step phase gradually from the perspective of new institutional economics.
2003年6月印度瓦杰帕伊总理访华时提出了建立中印FTA的建议,中国对此给予了积极的回应。2005年4月温家宝总理访问印度时,双方签署了《中华人民共和国与印度共和国联合声明》,两国要全面拓展包括贸易和投资在内的经济合作,并致力于2015年建立中印自由贸易区,为此,两国总理宣布启动联合工作组。经过共同努力,中印双方就货物贸易、服务贸易、投资、贸易便利化、经济合作以及结论和建议等全部章节达成共识,2007年10月如期完成了联合研究报告。报告指出,中印应通过建立RTA(区域贸易协定),相互减少和消除贸易壁垒、推动贸易自由化、改善投资环境,加强经济合作,实现互利共赢,促进亚洲经济一体化。但由于印度仍不承认中国的“市场经济地位”,印度政界和工商界对和中国合作可能带来的竞争和影响十分谨慎和担忧,以至于此事仍停留在研究报告阶段。为了扫除中印FTA实现道路上的障碍,深入研究中印经济贸易的互补性和竞争性,研究中印FTA的预期效应和存在的困难因素,探索推进中印FTA的战略和实现步骤就显得非常必要,具有重要的研究价值和现实意义。
本文以建立自由贸易区的传统收益和非传统收益理论为基础,以探索中印是否具备建立自由贸易区的基础为主线,以建立中印自由贸易区的预期效应为核心,从理论、现实和实证等多层面解析中印经贸关系的互补性及巨大发展潜力,揭示中印建立自由贸易区的诸多预期效应和可能面临的困难,并提出克服障碍因素推进中印自由贸易区建设的战略构想。论文的基本研究思路是：(1)梳理中印建立自由贸易区的理论依据,为全文的研究提供理论基础。(2)分析近年来中印参与FTA的积极态度及各自的战略意图,以及中印日益密切的经贸关系,为中印建立FTA的研究奠定现实基础。(3)进一步从现实性分析和实证分析层面揭示中印宏观经济和贸易关系的互补性大于竞争性从而具备建立自由贸易区条件的现实。(4)用定量分析与定性分析相结合的方法,从多层面揭示中印建立自由贸易区可能的静态经济效应、动态经济效应和非传统收益,揭示中印自由贸易区面临的经济、政治及历史等方面诸多阻碍因素。(5)在现实性分析和实证分析、定量分析与定性分析的基础上提出推动中印自由贸易区早日实现的战略构想。具体来看,全文主要研究内容和观点如下：
1.系统梳理和解析中印建立自由贸易区的相关理论,明晰全文研究的理论依据和分析框架。分析表明,传统收益理论中的关税同盟理论和自由贸易区理论、新区域主义的非传统收益理论以及发展经济学对发展中国家间经济一体化进行理论解释的中心—外围理论和国际依附理论是分析中印自由贸易区问题的主要理论依据,这些理论着重探讨了自由贸易协定的福利效应以及影响因素。
2.现实性分析中印各自参与FTA的实践、战略意图及双边贸易关系的发展。中印参与FTA的积极态度及两国战略意图的诸多共同之处有利于两国间开展区域贸易一体化。20世纪90年代以来,中印两国都因不断深化改革而使经济快速增长,两国各自的对外贸易及中印双边贸易也迅速发展。整体来说,近几年中印双边贸易关系呈现出越来越紧密的发展趋势,成为建立中印自由贸易区的重要基础。但双边贸易和两国快速发展的经济和经济总量相比较还是极不相称的,双边贸易额仍偏低且具有非对称性,双方广阔、深厚的市场潜力有待于在自贸区框架下进一步挖掘。
3.分别从宏观经济层面与具体贸易结构层面实证分析中印经济的互补性及竞争性。中印经济在发展水平、国民经济结构和经济发展模式等方面都存在差异,互补性很强,宏观经济层面具备建立自由贸易区的基础。通过计算贸易专业化指数和产业内贸易指数,从产业间和产业内两个方面考察了中印贸易关系。中印两国部分劳动密集型产品在世界市场上具有一定的竞争性,在初级产品和资本技术密集型产品上形成优势产业互补关系,互补性大于竞争性,这种情形有利于中印自由贸易区的建立。中印之间也存在较强的产业内贸易互补,但两国目前仍以产业间贸易为主。两国在信息技术产业、机电产品、制药业、煤和铁矿石等产品领域具有发展产业内贸易的潜力,在自由贸易区框架内两国产业内贸易的产品领域和规模都会不断扩大。由于中印在主要进出口商品构成及进出口伙伴国上具有相似性,因此两国在第三国市场上存竞争,这在一定程度上限制了两国经济交往的深化。总的来看,中印贸易关系既有互补性又有竞争性,但互补性大于竞争性,这种情形有利于中印自由贸易区的建立,中印两国已基本具备了组建FTA的现实基础。
4.用定量分析与定性分析相结合的方法从传统收益和非传统收益两个方面对中印FTA预期的效应进行分析。通过计算中印间贸易比重指数和使用贸易引力模型定量分析研究了中印自由贸易区FTA的建立对区内具有巨大的贸易扩大效应。中印双边贸易潜力巨大,只是目前两国的贸易壁垒比较严重,两国若进一步进行机制性区域贸易合作,一定能够产生更大的贸易创造效应。中印两国的贸易创造效应均为正,这与关税同盟理论中的贸易创造效应是相吻合的。中印建立FTA具有规模经济、激化竞争、扩大投资和优化资源配置等动态效应,投资扩大效应尤其突出,中印FTA的建立一方面能增加来自第三国的FDI(即直接投资),另一方面也能大规模增加来自伙伴国的FDI。本文还对中印建立FTA的非传统收益做了尝试性探讨。这些非传统收益主要包括：获取政治收益,向外界发出信号,提高中印两国在国际事务中的地位和谈判能力,为两国提供“保险”,促进两国协调发展,改善两国的安全,扩展能源合作空间等。
5.从经济、政治、历史等方面全面深入的分析了建立中印FTA的障碍因素。经济方面的障碍因素主要包括：中印要素禀赋和比较优势的相似性决定两国贸易具有竞争性,印度奉行内向型经济发展战略和外贸战略,印度的高关税,印度频繁对我国实施贸易保护措施且愈演愈烈,中印贸易不平衡,印度一直不承认中国的“市场经济地位”；政治方面的障碍因素主要包括：中印边界问题及1962年中印战争,西藏问题,日本因素,美国因素,中巴关系,印度散布“中国威胁论”,中印两国政治体制和意识形态存在差异等；历史及其他障碍因素主要有：两国民间交流与沟通较少,彼此认知上存在误解和偏见,两国文化观念存在较大差异,交通运输问题,构建中印FTA存在技术障碍。中印建立FTA必须要面对和解决这些障碍和制约因素,否则可能使两国关系陷入困境,甚至断送中印FTA的美好前程。
6.在现行中印关系框架下,高额的交易成本已经限制了两国经贸关系的进一步扩展和深化,FTA是中印两国间实现巨大预期收益的一种制度安排。本文在前面分析的基础上首先确定了推进中印FTA制度安排应坚持的原则,并借鉴北美自由贸易区的经验结合中印两国的现实情况及世界多边贸易体制的要求,从新制度经济学的角度提出推进中印FTA早日实现的战略构想,对中印FTA的制度安排应遵循的原则和可能的推进步骤进行了研究,并设想了中印FTA分四个阶段逐步实施的阶段步骤。
本文采用了规范分析与实证分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合及理论联系实际的研究方法。本文的主要创新或拓展性研究是：基于传统收益和非传统收益两个视角较全面分析了中印自由贸易区可能的效应,扩展了中印建立自由贸易区预期效应的研究。从经济、政治、历史等多个角度,全面、深入的考察了中印建立自由贸易区的障碍因素,弥补了目前学术界对此问题的研究零散且不够深入的不足；借鉴北美自由贸易区的发展经验并结合两国的现实情况及世界多边贸易体制的要求,从新制度经济学的角度提出了推进中印FTA早日实现的战略构想和分四步循序渐进实施的阶段步骤。
In the background of accelerated economic globalization and the slow progress of multilateral trade negotiations, regional economic cooperation develops vigorously around the world. Free Trade Area (FTA), in particular bilateral FTA, becomes the main form of regional economic cooperation because of its advantage of initiative, flexibility and universality, etc. Due to the rising global trade protectionism triggered by global financial crisis, many countries have turned to strengthen regional trade liberalization arrangements and conclude bilateral FTA. FTA has become important for many countries to avoid the risk of trade protectionism and to promote the development of trade. As the world's largest developing countries and emerging economies, both China and India follow this trend, accelerating the implementation of FTA strategy respectively. With the rapid development of economic and trade cooperation, China and India also show the willingness to set up FTA.
When Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee visited China and proposed to establish FTA in June 2003, China responded positively. In April 2005, Premier Wen Jiabao visited India, and signed "Declaration between the PRC and the Republic of India" with India. The declaration proposed that the two countries should develop a comprehensive economic cooperation, including trade and investment, and committed to establish free trade area between China and India in 2015. For this, the two leaders announced the launch of a joint working group. Through efforts, China and India reached a consensus on all the chapters, including trade in goods, trade in services, investment, trade facilitation,economic cooperation, the conclusions and recommendations, etc. A joint research report was completed on schedule in October 2007. According to the report, India and China should reduce and eventually eliminate trade barriers, promote trade liberalization, improve the investment environment, enhance economic cooperation and realize mutual benefits and promote economic integration of Asian through establishing regional trade agreements (RTA). However, because India still refuses to acknowledge China's "market economy status", Indian politicians and businesses are cautious and worry about the potential competition and impact brought by cooperation with China. As a result, the establishment of RTA remains stalled in the research stage. In order to remove the obstacles on the establishment of FTA, it is crucial to study both the trade complementarities and competitions between China and India in depth, to investigate the expected effects and difficulties of the China-India FTA, and to explore strategies to promote China-India FTA and implementation steps, which has essential research value and practical significance.
This thesis is based on the traditional and non-traditional gain of free trade area, exploring whether or not there is basis for establishing free trade area with India, with the expected effects of FTA as the core; analysis complementary and huge development potential of the two countries from theory, reality and empirical aspects, reveals expected effect and many difficulties in establishing a free trade area, and proposes strategic visions to overcome the barriers and promote the Sino-Indian free trade area. The basic ideas of this thesis are:(1) combing the theoretical basis for the establishment of free trade area to provide theoretical basis of the full text. (2) analyzing positive attitude of the two countries on the participation in FTA and their own strategic intentions and the increasingly close economic in recent years, to establish realistic basis for the study of establishing FTA. (3) from the reality and theory further revealing the level of macroeconomic are more complementary than competitive in trade relations between India and China, thus there are chances for establishing FTA. (4) using qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis methods to reveal the possible static and dynamic economic effects and non-traditional income, revealing the economic, political and historical and many other obstacles to establish FTA. (5) based on the real and empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, proposing strategic vision to promote the early realization of FTA. Specifically, the main contents and views of the full text are as follows:
1. Sort out and resolve the theory of FTA between India and China, clear theoretical basis and analytical framework of the full text. It has been shown that the customs union theory and free trade theory of traditional income theory, the non-traditional revenue of the new regionalism, the center-periphery theory explaining integration among developing countries of development economics, and the international dependency theory are the main theoretical basis to analyze the problem of FTA between India and China; these theories focus on the welfare effects and influencing factors of free trade agreements.
2. Analyze the practice, strategic intent and bilateral trade relations of their participation in the Sino-Indian FTA from the reality aspect. The positive attitude in the participation in FTA and the similarities of strategic intentions between the two countries makes for the regional trade integration. Since the last decade of 20th century, economy of China and India grow rapidly due to the deepening reform, and foreign trade of each country and their bilateral trade developed rapidly. Overall, bilateral trade between China and India shows the trend of closer relationship in recent years, which is an important basis for establishing FTA. However, it is disproportionate for bilateral trade compared to the rapid development of bilateral economic and economic output. Bilateral trade remains low and is non-symmetric; both the broadth and the depth of the market potential should be explored within the framework of FTA.
3. Empirical analysis of complementarities and competition between India and China from the macroeconomic level and structure level of specific trade economic respectively. There are differences between India and China on economic development level, economic structure and economic development models. Being highly complementary, there is basis for establishing FTA between the two economies from the macroeconomic level. By calculating the trade specialization index and the index of intra-industry trade, China and India trade relations from inter-industry and industry are investigated. There is competition for some labor-intensive products between the two countries in world markets; while in primary products and capital and high-technology industries, complementarity is more than competition; all the situations are conducive to establish FTA. Between China and India, there is a strong complement in intra-industry trade, but the majority of the trade between the two countries is still inter-industry. There are potentials to develop intra-industry trade between the two countries in the information technology industry, mechanical and electrical products, pharmaceuticals, coal and iron ore and other products, and the product areas and the scale in inter-industry trade will expand in the framework of FTA between the two countries. As there is similarity between the main import and export commodities and import and export partner countries for China and India, there is competition for the two countries in the third country market, which to some extent, limits the deepening of bilateral economic exchanges. Overall, there are both complementarities and competitions in Sino-Indian trade relations, but complementarity is more than competition, there is realistic basis to form China-India FTA.
4. Analyse expected effect of the China-India FTA from traditional and non-traditional gain aspects using quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis. By calculating the proportion of trade index between China and India, using the gravity model of trade to analyse quantitatively, we conclude that there is great expansion effect by establishing FTA. There is great trade potential in China-India bilateral trade, but the trade barriers between the two countries are tremendous; if the two countries cooperate on the regional trade mechanism further, they will be able to generate greater trade creation effect. The trade creation effect is positive for China and India, which is consistent with the trade creation effect of customs union theory. There is dynamic effect including economies of scale, intensified competition, investment and optimize the allocation of resources by establishing FTA with India, particularly the investment expansion effect is conspicuous; the establishment of Sino-India FTA could increase FDI (that is direct investment) from both the third country and the partner countries. This paper also made a trial research on the non-traditional gain by establishing the China-India FTA. These non-traditional gains include:accessing political gain, signaling to the outside, improving the status in international affairs and negotiating capacity for both China and India, providing "insurance" for the two countries, promote the coordinated development between the two countries, improving their security, expanding energy cooperation space, etc.
5. Comprehensively and deeply analyse barriers of the establishment of FTA from economic, political, historical and other aspects. Economic barriers include:the similarity of factor endowments and comparative advantage between China and India determine the competitive in trade between the two countries, India pursues an inward-looking economic development strategies and foreign trade strategy, India's high tariffs, India carries out trade protection measures frequently to China and intensified, imbalance of trade in India and China, India has not acknowledged China's "market economy status". Political barriers include:the Sino-Indian border issue and the war in 1962, the Tibet issue, the Japanese factor, the U.S. factor, the Sino-Pakistan relations, spreading of the "China threat" theory by India, different political systems and ideology between China and India, etc. Historical and other barriers:few non-governmental communicate between the two countries, cognitive misunderstanding and prejudice between the two countries, difference in cultural values, transportation problems, technical barriers exist in Establishment of FTA. The two countries must face and resolve these obstacles and constraints in establishment of FTA, otherwise, the relationship between the two countries may deteriorate, or even ruin the good prospects of Sino-Indian FTA.
6. Within the existing framework of China-Indian relations, the high transaction costs have limited the further expansion and deepening of bilateral economic and trade relations, FTA is expected to be a system arrangement achieving great benefits for both China and India. Based on the analysis in previous paper, we first identified the principles that should adhere in institutional arrangements to promote the China-Indian FTA, and learn the experience of the North American Free Trade Area and combine with the reality between China and India and the requirements of the world multilateral trade system, recommend the strategic concept from new institutional economics to promote the establishment of China-Indian FTA as early as possible, study the principles that should follow in the institutional arrangements of FTA and possible steps to promote, and conceived in four phases in FTA to implement gradually.
In this paper, the normative analysis and empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis and theory with practical research methods are used. The main innovation or expansion of this research is:based on the traditional income and non-traditional gain perspective to give a more comprehensive analysis of the possible effect of the China-Indian FTA, expanding the expected effect of establishing FTA. This paper also gives a comprehensive, in-depth study of the China-Indian FTA barriers from economic, political, historical, and other point of view, to make up for the scattered study depth currently in academic research on this issue; learning from the North American FTA development experience combined with the reality of the two countries and the world multilateral trade system requirements, proposing strategic idea to promote the early realization of China-India FTA and to implement the four-step phase gradually from the perspective of new institutional economics.
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