海峡两岸体育事务的博弈分析
摘要
本论文从海峡两岸合作共赢的目的出发,以海峡两岸体育事务合作与发展的现状作为研究对象,并对具有典型意义,影响巨大的个案进行剖析,比较全面的揭示海峡两岸体育事务发展中存在问题和阻力,本文通过收集和研读社会学、政治学、经济学、体育学、博弈论理论的相关资料,运用文献资料法、调查访问法、个案分析法以及逻辑分析法,对所得资料和调查结果进行分析和研究得出以下结论:1)两岸体育事务应以“奥运模式”为基础,展开政治互信交流;2)两岸体育事务应加强优势互补,基于合作博弈实现互惠双赢;3)两岸体育事务应加强建立沟通机制,实现“非合作博弈”向“合作博弈”发展。4)两岸体育事务应根据合作的不同领域和特点,建立长效的、有利于双赢的合作博弈模式。
博弈论中的重点在于均衡,所谓均衡就是所有局中参与人的最优策略组合,各方博弈产生的结果是一个均衡结局,因为,任何一方改变策略而导致均衡的变化都有可能使自己得到一个更差的结果。为此,本文提出如下建议:1)两岸体育事务发展博弈中要处理好合作与妥协的关系。2)两岸体育事务发展博弈中要的妥协与让步应建立在有较大总体收益基础。3)两岸体育事务发展博弈应侧重注意合作前提基础上的沟通与交流。
博弈中的任何一方,如果要实现自己博弈收益的真正最大化,就必须明白这样一个道理:博弈结果不仅取决于自己的策略,而且在很大程度上受到其他博弈方的制约,即个体理性要服从集体理性的要求。所以,通过博弈论来研究两岸体育事务,以此达到两岸体育优势互补、相互促进、共同发展的目的,有利于促进和谐的两岸关系,建立良性互动,为最终完成祖国统一大业做出积极的贡献。
This paper from the purpose of cross-strait win-win cooperation of cross-strait sports affairs cooperation and development of the situation as the research object, and the typical significance, affect huge case analysis, comprehensive reveal strait sports affairs development exists problems and resistance, based on the collection and study of sociology, politics, economics, sports study, game theory, using the theory of relevant information as literature data method, questionnaire, case analysis and logic analysis, the survey results of data and analysis and research results are as follows: 1) Taiwan "Olympic sports affairs should be based on" mode, political trust exchanges; 2) cross-strait sports affairs should strengthen the cooperative game theory, based on complementary realize win-win; 3) cross-strait sports affairs should strengthen establish communication mechanism, to realize "the noncooperative games" to "cooperative game" development. 4) cross-strait sports affairs should be based on the characteristics of different areas and cooperation, establishing long-effect, beneficial to win-win cooperation game mode.
The key lies in the equilibrium theory, the so-called equilibrium is all innings in the optimal strategy combinations participants, the result of the parties game is a balanced end, because, any one party change strategy and cause a balanced changes are likely to gain a worse results. Therefore, this article Suggestions are as follows: 1) the development of cross-strait sports affairs game to deal with the relationship between cooperation and compromise. 2) cross-strait sports affairs development game to compromise and concession shall establish with heavy overall revenue base. 3) cross-strait sports affairs development should emphasize particularly on the note cooperation game based on the premise of communication and exchange.
Game on any side of the game, if you want to achieve their real income maximization, you must realize that such a truth: the result of game depends not only on their own strategies, and largely restricted by other gambling sides, namely the individual rationality to obey collective rationality requirements. So, through game theory to study, to achieve cross-strait sports affairs cross-strait sports complementary advantages and mutual promotion and common development, and promoting the harmony of the purpose of cross-strait relations, establish the benign interaction, as the ultimate reunification to make positive contribution.
博弈论中的重点在于均衡,所谓均衡就是所有局中参与人的最优策略组合,各方博弈产生的结果是一个均衡结局,因为,任何一方改变策略而导致均衡的变化都有可能使自己得到一个更差的结果。为此,本文提出如下建议:1)两岸体育事务发展博弈中要处理好合作与妥协的关系。2)两岸体育事务发展博弈中要的妥协与让步应建立在有较大总体收益基础。3)两岸体育事务发展博弈应侧重注意合作前提基础上的沟通与交流。
博弈中的任何一方,如果要实现自己博弈收益的真正最大化,就必须明白这样一个道理:博弈结果不仅取决于自己的策略,而且在很大程度上受到其他博弈方的制约,即个体理性要服从集体理性的要求。所以,通过博弈论来研究两岸体育事务,以此达到两岸体育优势互补、相互促进、共同发展的目的,有利于促进和谐的两岸关系,建立良性互动,为最终完成祖国统一大业做出积极的贡献。
This paper from the purpose of cross-strait win-win cooperation of cross-strait sports affairs cooperation and development of the situation as the research object, and the typical significance, affect huge case analysis, comprehensive reveal strait sports affairs development exists problems and resistance, based on the collection and study of sociology, politics, economics, sports study, game theory, using the theory of relevant information as literature data method, questionnaire, case analysis and logic analysis, the survey results of data and analysis and research results are as follows: 1) Taiwan "Olympic sports affairs should be based on" mode, political trust exchanges; 2) cross-strait sports affairs should strengthen the cooperative game theory, based on complementary realize win-win; 3) cross-strait sports affairs should strengthen establish communication mechanism, to realize "the noncooperative games" to "cooperative game" development. 4) cross-strait sports affairs should be based on the characteristics of different areas and cooperation, establishing long-effect, beneficial to win-win cooperation game mode.
The key lies in the equilibrium theory, the so-called equilibrium is all innings in the optimal strategy combinations participants, the result of the parties game is a balanced end, because, any one party change strategy and cause a balanced changes are likely to gain a worse results. Therefore, this article Suggestions are as follows: 1) the development of cross-strait sports affairs game to deal with the relationship between cooperation and compromise. 2) cross-strait sports affairs development game to compromise and concession shall establish with heavy overall revenue base. 3) cross-strait sports affairs development should emphasize particularly on the note cooperation game based on the premise of communication and exchange.
Game on any side of the game, if you want to achieve their real income maximization, you must realize that such a truth: the result of game depends not only on their own strategies, and largely restricted by other gambling sides, namely the individual rationality to obey collective rationality requirements. So, through game theory to study, to achieve cross-strait sports affairs cross-strait sports complementary advantages and mutual promotion and common development, and promoting the harmony of the purpose of cross-strait relations, establish the benign interaction, as the ultimate reunification to make positive contribution.
引文
[1]钟维平.赖幸媛与大陆下棋需合作博弈[EB/OL].(2010-02-20)[2010-12-20].http://news.ifeng.com/taiwan/4/201002/0220_354_1549946.shtml.
[2]李俊杰.从博弈理论解析两岸体育交流签订之赛局(1987-1989)[J].体育学报,2002(32):203-214.
[3]谢军,陈少坚,许建成,等.海峡两岸体育交流政策之考察[J].武汉体育学院学报,2009(11):18-21.
[4]江涛.台湾问题的博弈分析[J].阜阳师范学院学报社会科学版,2003(1):107—109.
[5]兰自力,谢军,骆映,等.海峡两岸体育交流研究[J].北京体育大学学报,20O4(3):294-297.
[6]林致诚,郭琼珠.海峡两岸体育交流及其影响探析[J].台湾研究集刊,2002(2):86-91.
[7]谢军,魏宁,陈劲松,等.海峡两岸体育交流合作的现状及障碍与因素[J].体育科学研究,2001(1):4-7.
[8]何尔清.关于加强海峡两岸体育交流合作的研究[J].山西师大体育学院学报,2006(2):9-11.
[9]林致诚,郭琼珠.海峡两岸体育交流及其影响探析[J].台湾研究集刊,2002(2):86-91.
[10]谢军,兰自力,徐学.海峡两岸体育社团比较刍议[J].北京体育大学学报,2004(4):443-447.
[11]林建华,郑旭旭.海峡两岸体育交流的回顾与展望[J].体育学刊,2001(4):17-19.
[12]王冠华.大陆与台湾的体育交流[J].重庆社会科学,2005(9):60-65.
[13]陈壮荔,陈海,庄志勇,等.对海峡两岸高校体育交流与合作若干问题的探讨[J].福建体育科技,1999(1):1-4.
[14]兰自力,谢军,骆映,等.海峡两岸体育交流合作的现状分析与对策研究[J].北京体育大学学报,2002(5):577-579.
[15]兰自力,谢军,骆映,等.海峡两岸体育交流与合作的历史回顾与前景展望[J].天津体育学院学报,2002(3):5-7.
[16]兰自力,谢军,骆映,等.海峡两岸体育交流研究[J].北京体育大学学报,20O4(3):294-297.
[17]谢军,魏宁,陈劲松,等.海峡两岸体育交流合作的现状及障碍与因素[J].体育科学研究,2001(1):4-7.
[18]李俊杰.从博弈理论解析两岸体育交流签订之赛局(1987-1989)[J].体育学报,2002(32):203-214.
[19]柳志卿.民进党籍高雄市长陈菊21日访问大陆[N].京华时报,2009-05-22(2).
[20]吕晓伟,李慧.两岸关系中的博弈论体现[J].内蒙古电大学刊,2008(5):10-11.
[21]张春英.海峡两岸“三通”政策———从博弈到共识[J].中共党史研究,2009(10):120-128.
[22]冯邦彦,李建国.两岸农业合作博弈与绩效分析[J].学术研究,2006(1):59-64.
[23]李益群,谢亚龙.体育博弈论[M].北京:北京体育大学出版社,2000.
[24]张维迎.博弈论与信息经济学[M].上海:三联书店,1998.
[25]谢识予.经济博弈论[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2006.
[26]崔之元.博弈论与社会科学[M].浙江:浙江人民出版社,1988.
[27]李书涛.决策支持系统原理[M].北京:北京理工大学出版社,1996.
[28]王金炳.博弈论的发展历史和基本内容[J].时代经贸,2007(5):1-2.
[29]胡中锋,邹双秀.“囚徒困境”下的教师知识分享——从非合作博弈到合作博弈[J].教育导刊,2010(8):63-66.
[30]张永胜.互利共赢的博弈论分析[J].兰州学刊,2008(11):77-80.
[31]张湛彬.博彩行为从非合作博弈到合作博弈的政府选择偏好[J].经济管理,2002(16):85-88.
[32]陈庆方.“智猪博弈”求双赢—如何让员工与企业共同发展[J].视点,2007(5):14-16.
[33]姜冰.浅议“猎人博弈”在管理工作中的应用[J].首都医科大学学报社会科学版增刊,2006(2):91-92.
[2]李俊杰.从博弈理论解析两岸体育交流签订之赛局(1987-1989)[J].体育学报,2002(32):203-214.
[3]谢军,陈少坚,许建成,等.海峡两岸体育交流政策之考察[J].武汉体育学院学报,2009(11):18-21.
[4]江涛.台湾问题的博弈分析[J].阜阳师范学院学报社会科学版,2003(1):107—109.
[5]兰自力,谢军,骆映,等.海峡两岸体育交流研究[J].北京体育大学学报,20O4(3):294-297.
[6]林致诚,郭琼珠.海峡两岸体育交流及其影响探析[J].台湾研究集刊,2002(2):86-91.
[7]谢军,魏宁,陈劲松,等.海峡两岸体育交流合作的现状及障碍与因素[J].体育科学研究,2001(1):4-7.
[8]何尔清.关于加强海峡两岸体育交流合作的研究[J].山西师大体育学院学报,2006(2):9-11.
[9]林致诚,郭琼珠.海峡两岸体育交流及其影响探析[J].台湾研究集刊,2002(2):86-91.
[10]谢军,兰自力,徐学.海峡两岸体育社团比较刍议[J].北京体育大学学报,2004(4):443-447.
[11]林建华,郑旭旭.海峡两岸体育交流的回顾与展望[J].体育学刊,2001(4):17-19.
[12]王冠华.大陆与台湾的体育交流[J].重庆社会科学,2005(9):60-65.
[13]陈壮荔,陈海,庄志勇,等.对海峡两岸高校体育交流与合作若干问题的探讨[J].福建体育科技,1999(1):1-4.
[14]兰自力,谢军,骆映,等.海峡两岸体育交流合作的现状分析与对策研究[J].北京体育大学学报,2002(5):577-579.
[15]兰自力,谢军,骆映,等.海峡两岸体育交流与合作的历史回顾与前景展望[J].天津体育学院学报,2002(3):5-7.
[16]兰自力,谢军,骆映,等.海峡两岸体育交流研究[J].北京体育大学学报,20O4(3):294-297.
[17]谢军,魏宁,陈劲松,等.海峡两岸体育交流合作的现状及障碍与因素[J].体育科学研究,2001(1):4-7.
[18]李俊杰.从博弈理论解析两岸体育交流签订之赛局(1987-1989)[J].体育学报,2002(32):203-214.
[19]柳志卿.民进党籍高雄市长陈菊21日访问大陆[N].京华时报,2009-05-22(2).
[20]吕晓伟,李慧.两岸关系中的博弈论体现[J].内蒙古电大学刊,2008(5):10-11.
[21]张春英.海峡两岸“三通”政策———从博弈到共识[J].中共党史研究,2009(10):120-128.
[22]冯邦彦,李建国.两岸农业合作博弈与绩效分析[J].学术研究,2006(1):59-64.
[23]李益群,谢亚龙.体育博弈论[M].北京:北京体育大学出版社,2000.
[24]张维迎.博弈论与信息经济学[M].上海:三联书店,1998.
[25]谢识予.经济博弈论[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2006.
[26]崔之元.博弈论与社会科学[M].浙江:浙江人民出版社,1988.
[27]李书涛.决策支持系统原理[M].北京:北京理工大学出版社,1996.
[28]王金炳.博弈论的发展历史和基本内容[J].时代经贸,2007(5):1-2.
[29]胡中锋,邹双秀.“囚徒困境”下的教师知识分享——从非合作博弈到合作博弈[J].教育导刊,2010(8):63-66.
[30]张永胜.互利共赢的博弈论分析[J].兰州学刊,2008(11):77-80.
[31]张湛彬.博彩行为从非合作博弈到合作博弈的政府选择偏好[J].经济管理,2002(16):85-88.
[32]陈庆方.“智猪博弈”求双赢—如何让员工与企业共同发展[J].视点,2007(5):14-16.
[33]姜冰.浅议“猎人博弈”在管理工作中的应用[J].首都医科大学学报社会科学版增刊,2006(2):91-92.