高技术资本对地区产出的影响
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摘要
新一轮科技革命的深入,以信息和电子技术为主的高技术产业对各国生产力的作用日趋明显。关于高技术资本概念及使用的讨论成为学术界的关注重点。发展高技术产业,是中国政府面对世界经济发展的新形势,为了增强国际竞争力的战略性选择。相比发达国家,中国高技术产业起步较晚,发展落后,对高技术资本的投资普遍不足。而且,国内对是否应该大力发展高技术产业的意见不一致,各个地区发展高技术产业的环境也各不相同,在高技术资本的投入上也表现出很大的差异。
本文采用面板数据的回归分析方法,运用C-D函数扩展模型,先对我国高技术资本对地区产出的影响进行测算,并比较了高技术资本和非高技术资本边际产出的高低。进一步地,将ICT资本从高技术资本中单独分离出来,衡量它对整个高技术产业产出的作用,并比较了ICT资本和其他高技术资本边际产出的高低。研究结果表明:(1)高技术资本与地区产出之间存在明显的正相关关系;(2)高技术资本的边际产出高于非高技术资本的边际产出,ICT资本的边际产出低于其他行业高技术资本的边际产出。据此提出了相应的政策含义。
With the deep development of the new scientific and technological revolution, the influence of the high-tech industries which concentrate on the information and the electron technology on the productivity effect of every country is more and more obvious. It becomes the key concentrate for the academic fields about the concept of high-tech capital and the discussion on the usage. Developing high-tech industry is strategic selection of Chinese government to increase international competitive strength facing the new situation of world economic development.Comparing to the developed countries,our country's high-tech industry began posteriorly and is backward,the investment in high-tech capital is general inadequate.In addition, we could not agree about whether to develop high-tech industry vigorously. Also,the environment for developing high-tech industry is different in different areas,and their investments in high-tech capital show prodigious difference.
This thesis adopts panel data regression analysis method, together with the C D function expansion model, to measure and calculate the effect of high-tech capital on area output, and then compare the marginal product between high-tech capital and other kinds of capital.Then,this paper divides ICT capital from the high capital, measures the effect of it,and compares the marginal product between the ICT capital and the other kind of high-tech capital.The studying result indicate: (1) There is obvious positive correlation between high-tech capital and area output; (2) The marginal product of high-tech capital is higher than other kinds of capital's,but the marginal product of ICT capital is lower than other kinds of high-tech capital's.According to the results, we give some policy suggestions.
本文采用面板数据的回归分析方法,运用C-D函数扩展模型,先对我国高技术资本对地区产出的影响进行测算,并比较了高技术资本和非高技术资本边际产出的高低。进一步地,将ICT资本从高技术资本中单独分离出来,衡量它对整个高技术产业产出的作用,并比较了ICT资本和其他高技术资本边际产出的高低。研究结果表明:(1)高技术资本与地区产出之间存在明显的正相关关系;(2)高技术资本的边际产出高于非高技术资本的边际产出,ICT资本的边际产出低于其他行业高技术资本的边际产出。据此提出了相应的政策含义。
With the deep development of the new scientific and technological revolution, the influence of the high-tech industries which concentrate on the information and the electron technology on the productivity effect of every country is more and more obvious. It becomes the key concentrate for the academic fields about the concept of high-tech capital and the discussion on the usage. Developing high-tech industry is strategic selection of Chinese government to increase international competitive strength facing the new situation of world economic development.Comparing to the developed countries,our country's high-tech industry began posteriorly and is backward,the investment in high-tech capital is general inadequate.In addition, we could not agree about whether to develop high-tech industry vigorously. Also,the environment for developing high-tech industry is different in different areas,and their investments in high-tech capital show prodigious difference.
This thesis adopts panel data regression analysis method, together with the C D function expansion model, to measure and calculate the effect of high-tech capital on area output, and then compare the marginal product between high-tech capital and other kinds of capital.Then,this paper divides ICT capital from the high capital, measures the effect of it,and compares the marginal product between the ICT capital and the other kind of high-tech capital.The studying result indicate: (1) There is obvious positive correlation between high-tech capital and area output; (2) The marginal product of high-tech capital is higher than other kinds of capital's,but the marginal product of ICT capital is lower than other kinds of high-tech capital's.According to the results, we give some policy suggestions.
引文
[2]王军亚、王任飞:《“信息技术生产率悖论”的动态演进》[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2005年第6期。
[3]姜建强、乔延清、孙烽:《信息技术革命与生产率悖论》[J].中国工业经济,2002第12期。
[4]http://www.sts.org.cn/tjbg/gjscy/documents/2007/070618,htm。
[5]参照Ellis Connolly*and Kevin J.Fox,2001,The Impact of High-Tech Capital of Productivity-Evidence from Australia[J]中skilled labour,本文将其译为技术劳动力.
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[5] Triplett, J.E. 1996, "High-Tech Industry Productivity and Hedonic PriceIndices" in OECD Proceedings: Industry Productivity, International Comparisons and Measurement Issues, 119-142, OECD: Paris.
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[9] John E.Merchant (1997), The role of governments in a market economy:Future strategies for the high-tech industry in America[J].International journal of production economics 52 (1997) 117-131
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[16]Theofanis P.Mamuneas,1999,Spillovers from publicly financed R&D capital in High Tech industries[J],International Journal of Industrial Organization,17(2),215-239.
[17]Neil Dias Karunaratne.High Tech Innovation,Growth and Trade Dynamics in Australia[J].Open Economies Review,1998(2):151-170.
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[21]Andrea Fosfuria,Thomas R?nde.High Tech clusters,technology spillovers,and trade secret laws[J].International Journal of Industrial Organization 2004,22:45-65.
[22]Jack E.Triplett.HIGH-TECH INDUSTRY PRODUCTIVITY AND HEDONIC PRICE INDICES[J].Bureau of Economic Analysis,US Department of Commerce,1996
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[24]Lise Aaboen,Peter Lindelof,Christopher von Koch,Hans Lofsten.Corporate governance and performance of small high-teehfirms in Sweden[J].Technovation 26(2006)955-968
[25]Gil Avnimelech,Morris Teubal.Creating venture capital industries that co-evolve with high tech:Insights from an extended industry life cycle perspective of the Israeli experience[J].Research Policy 35(2006)1477-1498
[26]Xiaohui Liu,Trevor Buck.Innovation performance and channels for international technologyspillovers:Evidence from Chinese high-tech industries[J].Research Policy 36(2007)355-366.Using genetic algorithms grey theory to forecast high technology industrial output[J].Appl.Math.Comput.doi:10(2007),.1016/j.amc.2007.04.080
[27]Martin Falk.R&D spending in the high-teeh sector and economic growth[J].Research in Economics 61(2007)140-147
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[32]卢锋:《我国劳动生产率增长及国际比较(1978-2004)-人民币实际汇 率长期走势研究之一》[C].北京大学中国经济研究中心讨论稿,2006年4月。
[33]钟根元、王方华、行喜欢:《信息技术、经济增长与劳动生产率增长》[J],《管理工程学报》2005年第4期。
[34]陈春宝、杨德林:《发展高技术产业创造中国产业国际竞争优势》[J],《经济学家》1997年第2期。
[35]吴先华、郭际:《信息产业与经济增长之间的关系》[J],《统计观察》2006年第4期。
[36]纪玉山、周英、吴勇民:《库兹涅茨人均收入决定论质疑-兼论我国产业结构升级的政策取向》[J],《经济经纬》2005年第1期。
[37]刘志迎、王昳、周彬:《高新技术及其产业的10大特性》[M],海天出版社,2002。
[38]韩婕、郭斌、许庆瑞:《高技术与教育-科技-经济协调发展》[J],《中国软科学》1996年第6期
[39]金碚:《高技术在中国产业发展中的地位和作用》[J],《中国工业经济》2003年第12期。
[40]秦永良、张满银、姜秀谦:《发展知识经济:我国产业结构调整和升级的最佳战略选择》[J],《经济学动态》2000年第1期。
[41]李兵:《从美国“新经济”看加速我国高技术产业的发展》[J],《世界经济与政治》1998年第8期。
[42]包安:《培育和发展高新技术产业是我区实现经济跨越的关键》[J],《科学管理研究》1999年第4期。
[43]张春生:《加速信息产业发展提高经济增长质量》[J],《经济师》1995年第11期。
[44]邵一华、马庆国:《中国高技术产业与传统产业要素重配置效应分析》[J],《科研管理》2001年第2期。
[45]郭怀英、王昌林:《实践科学发展观需要高技术产业全方位支撑》[J],《中国科技论坛》2004年第5期。
[46]王军亚、王任飞:《“信息技术生产率悖论”的动态演进》[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2005年第6期。
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[49]姜建强、乔延清、孙烽:《信息技术革命与生产率悖论》[J].中国工业经济,2002第12期。
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[56]邵一华、马庆国:《中国高技术产业与传统产业要素重配置效应分析》[J],《科研管理》2001年第2期。
[57]石良平:《中级宏观经济学》[M],上海:上海财经大学出版社,2004。
[58]许玉明:《中国高技术产业的科技进步贡献率分析》[J],《技术创新》2005年第5期。
[59]张军、吴桂英、张吉鹏:《中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-20009[J],《经济研究》2004年第10期。
[60]赵海生:《从公共人力资本存量的国际比较看人才战略》[Z],http://www.gequ.name,2002.5。
[3]姜建强、乔延清、孙烽:《信息技术革命与生产率悖论》[J].中国工业经济,2002第12期。
[4]http://www.sts.org.cn/tjbg/gjscy/documents/2007/070618,htm。
[5]参照Ellis Connolly*and Kevin J.Fox,2001,The Impact of High-Tech Capital of Productivity-Evidence from Australia[J]中skilled labour,本文将其译为技术劳动力.
[1] Coe, D; Helpman, E.,1995, International R&D spillovers[J]. European Economic Review, 39(5), 859-87.
[2] Darrene Hackler, 2001,High Tech Industrial Location and Economic Development [J]. Midwest Political Science Association, April 16, (4).
[3] Ellis Connolly and Kevin J. Fox,2001,The Impact of High-Tech Capital of Productivity——Evidence from Australia [D]. Reserve Bank of Australia,GPO Box 3947,Sydney NSW 2001,Australia.
[4] Ernst R..Berndt,Catherine J. Morrison,1995,High-Tech Capital formation and economic performance in U.S manufacturing industries: An exploratory analysis[J],Journal of Econometrics ,65(1),9-43.
[5] Triplett, J.E. 1996, "High-Tech Industry Productivity and Hedonic PriceIndices" in OECD Proceedings: Industry Productivity, International Comparisons and Measurement Issues, 119-142, OECD: Paris.
[6] M. J. Pereira,2004, Impacts of information systems and technology on productivity and competitiveness of the Portuguese banking sector: an empirical study[J], Faculty of Engineering, Catholic University of Portugal ,11 (1),43-62.
[7] Steven j. bongiorno, 1994,Sates Innovate Programs to Grow High Tech Industry[J],industry week,9. 32-43
[8] Theofanis P. Mamuneas, 1999,Spillovers from publicly financed R&D capital in High Tech industries [J], International Journal of Industrial Organization, 17( 2), 215-239.
[9] John E.Merchant (1997), The role of governments in a market economy:Future strategies for the high-tech industry in America[J].International journal of production economics 52 (1997) 117-131
[10] Diewert, W.E. and Fox, K.J. (1999), Can measurement error explain the productivity paradox? [J].Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 32, No. 2, April 1999: 251-280.
[11] Brynjolfsson, E. and Hitt, L.M. (1998), Beyond the productivity paradox: computers are the catalyst for bigger changes[J].June, http://ccs.mit.edu/erik (accessed 1/10/2000)
[12] Lawrence M.Rausch, 1998, HIGH-TECH INDUSTRIES DRIVE GLOBAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY[J], NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION, 98-319, July 20, 1998.
[13] Georges Benko, Technopoles, high-tech industries and regional development: A critical review[J], GeoJournal 51: 157-167,2000.
[14] NEIL DIAS KARUNARATNE, High-Tech Innovation, Growth and Trade Dynamics in Australia[J],Open economies review 8:2 151-170 (1997).
[15] Daniel Felsenstein. Do high technology agglomerations encourage urban sprawl [J]. Ann Reg Sci 2002, 36 (4): 663-682.
[16]Theofanis P.Mamuneas,1999,Spillovers from publicly financed R&D capital in High Tech industries[J],International Journal of Industrial Organization,17(2),215-239.
[17]Neil Dias Karunaratne.High Tech Innovation,Growth and Trade Dynamics in Australia[J].Open Economies Review,1998(2):151-170.
[18]Metter Praest.Changing Technological Capabilities in High Tech Firms:A Study of the Telecommunications Industry[J].Journal of High Technology Management Research,1998,9(2),:175-193.
[19]Asian Technology Information Program(ATIP)Report:High Tech Product Import and Export in China[R].http://www.atip.or.jp/services.html.1999-04-27.
[20]Edward Feser,Harvey Goldstein,Henry Renski,Catherine Renault.The Geographic Clustering of High Tech Industry Science and Innovation in Appalachia [J].San Juan,Puerto Rico,2002,11:14-16.
[21]Andrea Fosfuria,Thomas R?nde.High Tech clusters,technology spillovers,and trade secret laws[J].International Journal of Industrial Organization 2004,22:45-65.
[22]Jack E.Triplett.HIGH-TECH INDUSTRY PRODUCTIVITY AND HEDONIC PRICE INDICES[J].Bureau of Economic Analysis,US Department of Commerce,1996
[23]Myriam Cloodt,John Hagedoom,Hans Van Kranenburg.Mergers and acquisitions:Their effect on the innovative performance of companies in high-tech industries[J].Research Policy 35(2006)642-654
[24]Lise Aaboen,Peter Lindelof,Christopher von Koch,Hans Lofsten.Corporate governance and performance of small high-teehfirms in Sweden[J].Technovation 26(2006)955-968
[25]Gil Avnimelech,Morris Teubal.Creating venture capital industries that co-evolve with high tech:Insights from an extended industry life cycle perspective of the Israeli experience[J].Research Policy 35(2006)1477-1498
[26]Xiaohui Liu,Trevor Buck.Innovation performance and channels for international technologyspillovers:Evidence from Chinese high-tech industries[J].Research Policy 36(2007)355-366.Using genetic algorithms grey theory to forecast high technology industrial output[J].Appl.Math.Comput.doi:10(2007),.1016/j.amc.2007.04.080
[27]Martin Falk.R&D spending in the high-teeh sector and economic growth[J].Research in Economics 61(2007)140-147
[28]中国国家统计局:《新中国五十年统计资料汇编》[M],中国统计出版社,1999。
[29]《中国统计年鉴(1996-2005)》[M],http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/.
[30]顾穗珊.我国高技术产业科技投入及产业发展灰关联分析[J].工业技术经济,2004年第6期.
[31]朱有为、徐康宁:《中国高技术产业研发效率的实证研究》[J].中国工业经济,2006年第11期。
[32]卢锋:《我国劳动生产率增长及国际比较(1978-2004)-人民币实际汇 率长期走势研究之一》[C].北京大学中国经济研究中心讨论稿,2006年4月。
[33]钟根元、王方华、行喜欢:《信息技术、经济增长与劳动生产率增长》[J],《管理工程学报》2005年第4期。
[34]陈春宝、杨德林:《发展高技术产业创造中国产业国际竞争优势》[J],《经济学家》1997年第2期。
[35]吴先华、郭际:《信息产业与经济增长之间的关系》[J],《统计观察》2006年第4期。
[36]纪玉山、周英、吴勇民:《库兹涅茨人均收入决定论质疑-兼论我国产业结构升级的政策取向》[J],《经济经纬》2005年第1期。
[37]刘志迎、王昳、周彬:《高新技术及其产业的10大特性》[M],海天出版社,2002。
[38]韩婕、郭斌、许庆瑞:《高技术与教育-科技-经济协调发展》[J],《中国软科学》1996年第6期
[39]金碚:《高技术在中国产业发展中的地位和作用》[J],《中国工业经济》2003年第12期。
[40]秦永良、张满银、姜秀谦:《发展知识经济:我国产业结构调整和升级的最佳战略选择》[J],《经济学动态》2000年第1期。
[41]李兵:《从美国“新经济”看加速我国高技术产业的发展》[J],《世界经济与政治》1998年第8期。
[42]包安:《培育和发展高新技术产业是我区实现经济跨越的关键》[J],《科学管理研究》1999年第4期。
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