河南省综合生态承载力研究
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摘要
中国在快速发展的同时付出了资源大量消耗,环境严重破坏的代价,已经出现部分资源供需失衡,局部地区生态严重超载的现象。河南省是人口、资源大省,中部崛起的核心区域,是中国发展的缩影。
面临着经济增长和生态环境保护的双重压力,走可持续发展之路是中国的必然选择。人类的生存和发展必须依赖各种资源,人类的生产生活活动不可避免的排出废物而引起生态环境的变化,而资源的供给是有限度的,环境对废弃物和污染的容量是有限度的,因此要实现持续发展,必须确保人类活动在资源供给限度之内,在环境纳污限度之内,也即在资源承载力与环境承载力基础之上。资源承载力和环境承载力本质上都属于生态承载力范畴,所以可持续发展必须建立在生态承载力基础之上。
生态承载力的研究目的是在科学评价承载力供需现状基础上,调控人类活动,实现经济发展、社会进步、环境友好的和谐生存环境。承载力的研究始于上世纪60年代,半个世纪以来一直是多学科关注的焦点。主要研究内容可以概括为资源承载力、环境承载力、生态承载力。相关成果比较集中在单要素承载力的研究,而综合承载力的研究基本停留在单要素承载力叠加的研究水平。另外,众多研究中对于不可更新资源的生态承载力关注不足,这与当前经济的快速发展很大程度依赖不可更新资源的现实不相适应。
全文主要研究内容如下：
(1)生态承载力评价的理论和实践意义重大,已有的评价理论与方法较多,其中生态足迹理论和能值分析理论当前应用比较普遍,但目前生态承载力研究存在不足：生态承载力研究尚未形成完整的理论体系；资源承载力和环境承载力研究主要集中在单要素分析；融合资源承载力与环境承载力的综合生态承载力的理论研究比较薄弱；不可更新资源生态承载力研究没有被重视。针对这些问题,本文提出了综合生态承载力概念,构建了包括资源生态承载力与环境生态承载力的综合生态承载力理论序列,并分析了综合生态承载力的调控途径；讨论了不可更新资源的生态承载功能,强调了资源生态承载力应包括可更新资源生态承载力与不可更新资源生态承载力。
(2)生态足迹是可持续发展评价的流行理论,在综述生态足迹理论与方法研究进展基础上,提出生态足迹研究应加强的几个方面：可更新资源与不可更新资源生态足迹分类研究；生态足迹及生态承载力的时间序列与时空配置研究；生态足迹在规划领域的实践研究。采用耕地复种指数、消费数据的优化处理等改进的生态足迹模型,量化河南省1990-2007年生态供需状况,并结合人口、资源、经济等指标对河南省资源、环境状况全面分析。
(3)能值分析理论解决了以往能量研究存在的难题,促进了能量研究进展,但能值理论对环境的影响考虑不足,对承载力的研究不够全面。借鉴能值模型,文章分析了河南省1990-2007年农业生态系统的能值投入产出情况,并对相关要素的变化态势做了比较分析。研究结果表明：河南省能值投资率持续提高,辅助能值投入量也在逐步增加,在能值产出增加的同时造成区域环境承受的压力增大。认为今后应提高有机能值投入,发展高效农业,生态农业,采用生物技术等措施,提高农业生态系统的生产效率并减轻对环境的负面影响。
(4)能值转换率是能值理论的重要概念,针对当前相关研究存在能值转换率误用现象,提出了能值转换率差异系数的概念及计算模型,并用于河南省能值分析研究。认为能值转换率差异系数可以促进能值理论与实践的结合。
(5)生态足迹理论与能值理论有相通之处,两种理论可以相互借鉴。能值方法融入生态足迹核算体系,构建了能值生态足迹模型,计算了河南省能值生态足迹,比较能值生态足迹与传统生态足迹结果的异同,指出当前能值生态足迹研究中存在的问题。
(6)同时借鉴生态足迹与能值分析的模型与方法,提出了综合生态承载力的核算模型。估算了河南省综合生态承载力,重点分析了不可更新资源生态承载力的供需态势,分两种情景预测了不可更新资源的承载年限。认为不可更新资源的有限性必将推动人类步入未来的低能社会,人类应当居安思危、未雨绸缪,促进向低能社会的平稳过渡。
China's rapid development is accompanied by the heavy drain on resources and serious environmental destruction. The imbalances between the supply and demand of resources and serious ecological overloading in some areas have presented themselves. Henan is a province of large population and resources, so its development into a newly-emergent kernel region of central China is a microcosm of China's development.
With sustainable development as the inevitable choice, China has developed its basic national policy of resource conservation and environmental protection as well as goals of developing a resource-saving and environment-friendly society. Human survival and development must rely on various resources, and eco-environment is inevitably contaminated by the discharge of wastes from human production and living activities. For the limited capacity of resource supply and environment's capacity to waste and pollution, we must ensure the human activities within the capacity of resource supply and environmental endurance, i.e., within the resource carrying capacity (abbreviated as "RCC") and environmental carrying capacity (abbreviated as "ECC1"). With RCC and ECC1 in the scope of ecological carrying capacity (abbreviated as "ECC2") in nature, sustainable development must be built on the basis of ECC2.
ECC2 study is aimed at regulating and controlling human activities, building a harmonious environment of advancing economy, progressing society and friendly environment on the basis of scientific evaluation of the present carrying capacity supply and demand. Beginning in 1960s, the carrying capacity study has been a multi-disciplinary focus for half a century. Its major study can be summarized as RCC, ECC1, and ECC2. Relevant outcomes are relatively concentrated in studies of single factor carrying capacities, and comprehensive carrying capacity studies basically remain combination of single factor carrying capacities. In addition, the earlier studies paid scant attention to the ECC2 of the non-renewable resources, which is ignorant of the fact that the rapid economic development at present depends to a large extent on non-renewable resources.
This article discusses the ECC2 of non-renewable resources, attempts to build theoretical sequences of comprehensive ECC2, including resource ECC2 and environmental ECC2, and emphasizes that the resource ECC2 should include the resource ECC2 of renewable resources and non-renewable resources.
Commonly applied to evaluating regional resources and environment respectively from the perspectives of area and energy, the ecological footprint theory and emergy theory, as the latest achievements in the field of sustainable development evaluation, are more suitable for comprehensive evaluation of carrying capacities. Considering the advantages of the two theories, with theoretical sequences of comprehensive ECC2 as reference, this paper discusses the computational model of comprehensive ECC2 and applies it to a case study of Henan Province.
The contents of the dissertation are as follows:
(1) Regional development should be established on the basis of ECC2, which mainly includes RCC and ECC1. Both the ecological footprint theory and emergy analysis theory can be applied to the ECC2 evaluation model while the current carrying capacity study is insufficient:no complete theoretical system was built for ECC2 study; the focus of RCC and ECC1 was mainly on single factor carrying capacities analysis; the theoretical study of comprehensive ECC2 which integrates RCC and ECC1 was relatively poor. The concept of comprehensive ECC2 suggested and the stress on the ecological carrying function of non-renewable resources are suggested. Comprehensive ECC2 should include non-renewable RCC; theoretical sequence of comprehensive ECC2 is to be built; the model and methods of comprehensive ECC2 quantitative analysis are to be analyzed in combination with ecological footprint theory and emergy analysis theory.
(2) A prevalent theory of sustainable development evaluation, the ecological footprint reviews the progress of study on ecological footprint theory and methods and further points out several aspects that ecological footprint theory should strengthen: ecological footprint classification studies of renewable resources and non-renewable resources; the time series as well as time-space configuration studies of ecological footprint and ECC2; study of ecological footprint in the planning field. Farmland multi-cropping index, consumer data optimization processing and other improved ecological footprint models are to be used, and the ecological supply and demand from 1990 to 2007 in Henan Province quantified. A comprehensive analysis of resources and environmental conditions, including population, resources, economy and other indicators in Henan Province is to be conducted.
(3) The emergy analysis theory is able to solve the problems existing in previous energy studies, and promote the energy study, but it takes insufficient account of the environmental impact and has incomprehensive carrying capacity studies. Based on the emergy model, the emergy input and output conditions of the agro-ecosystems in Henan Province from 1990 to 2007 are to be analyzed, and the changes of relevant factors compared. The continuously increased emergy investment ratio and auxiliary inputs in Henan Province result in more emergy output and yet more pressure in regional environment at the same time. Organic emergy input should be increased, agriculture and eco-agriculture developed, biological technology and other measures used, agro-ecosystem productivity improved and negative impact on the environment reduced in the future.
(4) Emergy transformity is an important concept of emergy theory. Because the emergy transformity was sometimes misused, this dissertation proposes the concept of emergy transformity variation coefficient and its computational model and applies them to the emergy analysis of Henan Province. Emergy transformity variation coefficient is considered to contribute to combination of theory and practice.
(5) The ecological footprint theory and the emergy theory are interrelated and complementary to each other. With emergy methods integrated into the ecological footprint accounting system, the emergy ecological footprint model is to be built, the emergy ecological footprint of Henan Province calculated, the results similarities and differences between the emergy ecological footprint and traditional ecological footprint compared, and problems existing in the current emergy ecological footprint studies pointed out.
(6) Accounting model of comprehensive ECC2 is presented by drawing on the models and methods of ecological footprint and emergy analysis. The comprehensive ECC2 of Henan Province is estimated with focus on analysis of the supply and demand of non-renewable resources ECC2, and the carrying time limit of non-renewable resources is predicted in two scenarios. We believe that the finite non-renewable resources will push the mankind forward into the future low-energy society, so human beings should be prepared to take precautions to promote a smooth transition to the low-energy society.
Principal innovations:the concept of comprehensive ECC2 is put forward and theoretical sequences of comprehensive ECC2 and quantitative models built; emergy transformity variation coefficient is advanced and applied to case studies; farmland multi-cropping index corrects the production factors, perfects the ecological footprint computational model; developing countermeasures are offered upon such long-term quantitative analysis as ecological footprint, emergy analysis, emergy ecological footprint, comprehensive ECC2 of Henan Province.
面临着经济增长和生态环境保护的双重压力,走可持续发展之路是中国的必然选择。人类的生存和发展必须依赖各种资源,人类的生产生活活动不可避免的排出废物而引起生态环境的变化,而资源的供给是有限度的,环境对废弃物和污染的容量是有限度的,因此要实现持续发展,必须确保人类活动在资源供给限度之内,在环境纳污限度之内,也即在资源承载力与环境承载力基础之上。资源承载力和环境承载力本质上都属于生态承载力范畴,所以可持续发展必须建立在生态承载力基础之上。
生态承载力的研究目的是在科学评价承载力供需现状基础上,调控人类活动,实现经济发展、社会进步、环境友好的和谐生存环境。承载力的研究始于上世纪60年代,半个世纪以来一直是多学科关注的焦点。主要研究内容可以概括为资源承载力、环境承载力、生态承载力。相关成果比较集中在单要素承载力的研究,而综合承载力的研究基本停留在单要素承载力叠加的研究水平。另外,众多研究中对于不可更新资源的生态承载力关注不足,这与当前经济的快速发展很大程度依赖不可更新资源的现实不相适应。
全文主要研究内容如下：
(1)生态承载力评价的理论和实践意义重大,已有的评价理论与方法较多,其中生态足迹理论和能值分析理论当前应用比较普遍,但目前生态承载力研究存在不足：生态承载力研究尚未形成完整的理论体系；资源承载力和环境承载力研究主要集中在单要素分析；融合资源承载力与环境承载力的综合生态承载力的理论研究比较薄弱；不可更新资源生态承载力研究没有被重视。针对这些问题,本文提出了综合生态承载力概念,构建了包括资源生态承载力与环境生态承载力的综合生态承载力理论序列,并分析了综合生态承载力的调控途径；讨论了不可更新资源的生态承载功能,强调了资源生态承载力应包括可更新资源生态承载力与不可更新资源生态承载力。
(2)生态足迹是可持续发展评价的流行理论,在综述生态足迹理论与方法研究进展基础上,提出生态足迹研究应加强的几个方面：可更新资源与不可更新资源生态足迹分类研究；生态足迹及生态承载力的时间序列与时空配置研究；生态足迹在规划领域的实践研究。采用耕地复种指数、消费数据的优化处理等改进的生态足迹模型,量化河南省1990-2007年生态供需状况,并结合人口、资源、经济等指标对河南省资源、环境状况全面分析。
(3)能值分析理论解决了以往能量研究存在的难题,促进了能量研究进展,但能值理论对环境的影响考虑不足,对承载力的研究不够全面。借鉴能值模型,文章分析了河南省1990-2007年农业生态系统的能值投入产出情况,并对相关要素的变化态势做了比较分析。研究结果表明：河南省能值投资率持续提高,辅助能值投入量也在逐步增加,在能值产出增加的同时造成区域环境承受的压力增大。认为今后应提高有机能值投入,发展高效农业,生态农业,采用生物技术等措施,提高农业生态系统的生产效率并减轻对环境的负面影响。
(4)能值转换率是能值理论的重要概念,针对当前相关研究存在能值转换率误用现象,提出了能值转换率差异系数的概念及计算模型,并用于河南省能值分析研究。认为能值转换率差异系数可以促进能值理论与实践的结合。
(5)生态足迹理论与能值理论有相通之处,两种理论可以相互借鉴。能值方法融入生态足迹核算体系,构建了能值生态足迹模型,计算了河南省能值生态足迹,比较能值生态足迹与传统生态足迹结果的异同,指出当前能值生态足迹研究中存在的问题。
(6)同时借鉴生态足迹与能值分析的模型与方法,提出了综合生态承载力的核算模型。估算了河南省综合生态承载力,重点分析了不可更新资源生态承载力的供需态势,分两种情景预测了不可更新资源的承载年限。认为不可更新资源的有限性必将推动人类步入未来的低能社会,人类应当居安思危、未雨绸缪,促进向低能社会的平稳过渡。
China's rapid development is accompanied by the heavy drain on resources and serious environmental destruction. The imbalances between the supply and demand of resources and serious ecological overloading in some areas have presented themselves. Henan is a province of large population and resources, so its development into a newly-emergent kernel region of central China is a microcosm of China's development.
With sustainable development as the inevitable choice, China has developed its basic national policy of resource conservation and environmental protection as well as goals of developing a resource-saving and environment-friendly society. Human survival and development must rely on various resources, and eco-environment is inevitably contaminated by the discharge of wastes from human production and living activities. For the limited capacity of resource supply and environment's capacity to waste and pollution, we must ensure the human activities within the capacity of resource supply and environmental endurance, i.e., within the resource carrying capacity (abbreviated as "RCC") and environmental carrying capacity (abbreviated as "ECC1"). With RCC and ECC1 in the scope of ecological carrying capacity (abbreviated as "ECC2") in nature, sustainable development must be built on the basis of ECC2.
ECC2 study is aimed at regulating and controlling human activities, building a harmonious environment of advancing economy, progressing society and friendly environment on the basis of scientific evaluation of the present carrying capacity supply and demand. Beginning in 1960s, the carrying capacity study has been a multi-disciplinary focus for half a century. Its major study can be summarized as RCC, ECC1, and ECC2. Relevant outcomes are relatively concentrated in studies of single factor carrying capacities, and comprehensive carrying capacity studies basically remain combination of single factor carrying capacities. In addition, the earlier studies paid scant attention to the ECC2 of the non-renewable resources, which is ignorant of the fact that the rapid economic development at present depends to a large extent on non-renewable resources.
This article discusses the ECC2 of non-renewable resources, attempts to build theoretical sequences of comprehensive ECC2, including resource ECC2 and environmental ECC2, and emphasizes that the resource ECC2 should include the resource ECC2 of renewable resources and non-renewable resources.
Commonly applied to evaluating regional resources and environment respectively from the perspectives of area and energy, the ecological footprint theory and emergy theory, as the latest achievements in the field of sustainable development evaluation, are more suitable for comprehensive evaluation of carrying capacities. Considering the advantages of the two theories, with theoretical sequences of comprehensive ECC2 as reference, this paper discusses the computational model of comprehensive ECC2 and applies it to a case study of Henan Province.
The contents of the dissertation are as follows:
(1) Regional development should be established on the basis of ECC2, which mainly includes RCC and ECC1. Both the ecological footprint theory and emergy analysis theory can be applied to the ECC2 evaluation model while the current carrying capacity study is insufficient:no complete theoretical system was built for ECC2 study; the focus of RCC and ECC1 was mainly on single factor carrying capacities analysis; the theoretical study of comprehensive ECC2 which integrates RCC and ECC1 was relatively poor. The concept of comprehensive ECC2 suggested and the stress on the ecological carrying function of non-renewable resources are suggested. Comprehensive ECC2 should include non-renewable RCC; theoretical sequence of comprehensive ECC2 is to be built; the model and methods of comprehensive ECC2 quantitative analysis are to be analyzed in combination with ecological footprint theory and emergy analysis theory.
(2) A prevalent theory of sustainable development evaluation, the ecological footprint reviews the progress of study on ecological footprint theory and methods and further points out several aspects that ecological footprint theory should strengthen: ecological footprint classification studies of renewable resources and non-renewable resources; the time series as well as time-space configuration studies of ecological footprint and ECC2; study of ecological footprint in the planning field. Farmland multi-cropping index, consumer data optimization processing and other improved ecological footprint models are to be used, and the ecological supply and demand from 1990 to 2007 in Henan Province quantified. A comprehensive analysis of resources and environmental conditions, including population, resources, economy and other indicators in Henan Province is to be conducted.
(3) The emergy analysis theory is able to solve the problems existing in previous energy studies, and promote the energy study, but it takes insufficient account of the environmental impact and has incomprehensive carrying capacity studies. Based on the emergy model, the emergy input and output conditions of the agro-ecosystems in Henan Province from 1990 to 2007 are to be analyzed, and the changes of relevant factors compared. The continuously increased emergy investment ratio and auxiliary inputs in Henan Province result in more emergy output and yet more pressure in regional environment at the same time. Organic emergy input should be increased, agriculture and eco-agriculture developed, biological technology and other measures used, agro-ecosystem productivity improved and negative impact on the environment reduced in the future.
(4) Emergy transformity is an important concept of emergy theory. Because the emergy transformity was sometimes misused, this dissertation proposes the concept of emergy transformity variation coefficient and its computational model and applies them to the emergy analysis of Henan Province. Emergy transformity variation coefficient is considered to contribute to combination of theory and practice.
(5) The ecological footprint theory and the emergy theory are interrelated and complementary to each other. With emergy methods integrated into the ecological footprint accounting system, the emergy ecological footprint model is to be built, the emergy ecological footprint of Henan Province calculated, the results similarities and differences between the emergy ecological footprint and traditional ecological footprint compared, and problems existing in the current emergy ecological footprint studies pointed out.
(6) Accounting model of comprehensive ECC2 is presented by drawing on the models and methods of ecological footprint and emergy analysis. The comprehensive ECC2 of Henan Province is estimated with focus on analysis of the supply and demand of non-renewable resources ECC2, and the carrying time limit of non-renewable resources is predicted in two scenarios. We believe that the finite non-renewable resources will push the mankind forward into the future low-energy society, so human beings should be prepared to take precautions to promote a smooth transition to the low-energy society.
Principal innovations:the concept of comprehensive ECC2 is put forward and theoretical sequences of comprehensive ECC2 and quantitative models built; emergy transformity variation coefficient is advanced and applied to case studies; farmland multi-cropping index corrects the production factors, perfects the ecological footprint computational model; developing countermeasures are offered upon such long-term quantitative analysis as ecological footprint, emergy analysis, emergy ecological footprint, comprehensive ECC2 of Henan Province.
引文
①河南省环境保护厅,《河南省环境保护“十一五”规划》,2007。
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