中国出口产品结构优化路径研究
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摘要
随着中国加入世贸组织，中国经济与去全球经济更为紧密地融为一体，中国的对外贸易也大幅增长。当前中国已经成为全球货物出口第一大国，货物进口第二大国，2012年中国贸易规模达到38668亿美元，首次超过美国，成为世界贸易规模最大的国家。在规模迅速扩大的同时，出口结构也不断优化，出口产品中机电产品和高新技术产品比重逐年提高，2012年机电产品和高新技术产品占出口比重分别为57.56%和29.34%。出口产品结构是一国的生产、技术和经济发展水平的综合体现，出口产品结构的不断优化，显示了我国整体产业竞争实力的增强。然而相对世界主要发达国家，我国的出口贸易仍处于国际分工价值链的较低水平，同时近年来国内经济增长模式转变的压力日益显现，资源和环境约束也要求传统的依靠劳动力成本优势的粗放式的出口增长模式必须转型优化。因此研究出口产品结构优化的相关理论和影响因素，科学选择出口产品结构优化路径，制定合理的政策促进出口产品结构优化升级，对我国出口贸易的可持续发展，对于实现经济增长方式的重大转变都具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。
本文在研究出口产品结构优化路径相关问题过程中，主要采用理论研究和经验分析相结合的方法。对出口产品结构优化的相关理论进行了总结梳理；采用显示性比较优势指数、贸易竞争指数和出口相似度指数分析了我国出口产品比较优势演进趋势。利用经济学理论和分析工具，分析了要素禀赋影响出口产品结构的主要路径，并采用计量经济学方法，对要素禀赋结构对出口产品结构优化的影响进行了实证检验，在分析了我国要素禀赋结构演进趋势的基础上，研究出口产品结构优化应遵循的发展战略，并提出促进出口产品结构优化的合理对策建议。
论文研究工作主要分为以下四部分：
第一部分包括论文的第1章和第2章，主要完成对前人研究成果的回顾和总结，从出口产品结构决定因素、出口产品与经济增长关系、出口产品结构动态演进、比较优势理论对出口产品结构优化的适用性研究和出口产品结构升级优化的对策研究等方面进行文献综述。另外按照从静态比较优势理论、动态比较优势理论和新-新贸易理论和国家竞争优势等理论框架，对出口产品结构优化的相关理论进行总结和梳理。
第二部分包括论文的第3章，主要研究我国出口产品结构和要素禀赋结构的历史演进：对我国出口产品结构进行阶段划分；分析我国出口贸易的主要特征及当前面临的主要问题；并利用显示性比较优势指数、贸易竞争指数和出口相似度指数对我国出口产品比较优势的演进趋势分别进行了纵向比较和与代表性国家间的横向比较。分析了我国资本、劳动、人力资本和技术等要素禀赋的演进趋势，并对比较优势战略对出口贸易的适用性进行了分析。
第三部分包括论文的第4章和第5章，主要完成对我国要素禀赋结构对出口产品结构的作用机理分析，并对我国要素禀赋结构对出口产品结构的影响进行实证检验。通过数理分析，要素禀赋结构主要通过资本积累、人力资本水平提升和技术进步三个路径影响出口产品结构。在此基础上整理加工1990年至2010年的数据，选取资本劳动比、人力资本水平、研发投入强度等指标作为自变量，我国资本和技术密集型产品占总出口中的比重作为因变量，采用协整分析得出上述自变量都对出口产品结构优化产生显著影响的结论。
第四部分是论文的第6章，分析我国出口产品结构优化应选择的路径，提出促进我国出口产品结构优化的对策建议，主要通过加大人力资本投资，提升人力资本水平；鼓励技术创新、促进技术进步，引导出口贸易的低碳模式转型等方式实现出口产品结构的不断优化和出口贸易的可持续发展。
With the accession to WTO, China’s economy has more tightly integrated into theworld economy, and China’s foreign trade has also made remark achievement. China hasbeen the largest goods exporter and the second largest goods importer of the world, in theyear2012the trade scale of China has amount to$388.68billion, the first time overtakethe America and become the country possessing the largest trade scale of the world. Withthe expansion of trade volume, the export structure has also been continually improvedand the share of electromechanical products and high-tech products in the export hasbeen increasing over years. By the year2012the electromechanical products andhigh-tech products has respectively accounted for57.56%and29.34of the export. Theexport structure is a comprehensive embodiment of a nation’s production, technology andeconomy development level, and the optimization of export structure had also showedthe improvement of the general industry competitiveness of China. But compared withmain developed countries of the world, China’s export still lies in the low level of thevalue chain of international specialization, in the meanwhile the pressure of the transitionof domestic economy growth pattern has become increasingly obvious, the restraint ofresource and environment also demands the upgrading of the traditional extensive exportgrowth pattern which mainly depends on the labor cost advantage. So to study therelevant theories and influencing factors of the optimization of export structure, andmake sound policies to promopt the export structure is important to both the sustainabledevelopment of China’s export and the transformation of the economy growth mode.
The dissertation studied the involved issues about the optimization path of exportstructure by the way of combining the theoretical research and empirical analysis. Itsummarized the related theories of export structure optimization, and utilized RCA, TCand ESI indices to study the evolution of the comparative advantages of China’s exportproducts. The dissertation also used economic theories and analysis instruments toanalyze the main paths through which the evolution of factor endowments influence onthe export structure, and tested the relations by econometric analysis. On the basis of theanalysis result of the factor endowments evolution the dissertation studied to what theorythat the export structure optimization should adhere, also the rationalized suggestions on how to prompt export structure optimization were proposed.
The main contents of the dissertation can be divided into four parts:
The first part consists of chapter one and chapter two. It mainly reviewed the relatedliteratures from the perspective of determination factors of export structure, relationsbetween export products with economy growth, the evolution of export structure,theoretical suitability of comparative advantage to export structure optimization and thecountermeasure study on export structure optimization. In this part the related theoriesincluding static comparative advantage, dynamic comparative advantage and enterpriseheterogeneity theories were summarized and reviewed.
The second part is chapter three. This chapter studied the evolution of China’sexport structure and classified it into three phases. It also analyzed the main problemsthat China’s export is facing, and used RCA, TC and ESI indices to compare thecomparative advantages evolution both in a vertical way and in a horizontal way amongrepresentative countries. This part also studied theoretical suitability of comparativeadvantage theories to export structure optimization and analyzed the evolution of China’sfactor endowment.
The third part includes chapter4and5. The part analyzed the mechanism throughwhich factor endowment impact the export structure and gave the empirical study. Theresult shows that capital accumulation, human capital promotion and technologicalprogress are main paths that have effects on export structure. It then choses above indicesas independent variables and the share of capita-technology intensive products inexport as dependent variable, using the data from1990to2010, to analyze the correlatedrelations. The co-integration analysis result confirmed the before-mentioned conclusion.
The fourth part is chapter six. This part analyzed the path to take to prompt theexport structure optimization. The main conclusions of the paper were proposed andcountermeasures and suggestions were proposed such as increasing investment on humancapital to enhance its level, encouraging technology innovation and guiding thetransformation of export pattern to a low-carbon development mode.
本文在研究出口产品结构优化路径相关问题过程中，主要采用理论研究和经验分析相结合的方法。对出口产品结构优化的相关理论进行了总结梳理；采用显示性比较优势指数、贸易竞争指数和出口相似度指数分析了我国出口产品比较优势演进趋势。利用经济学理论和分析工具，分析了要素禀赋影响出口产品结构的主要路径，并采用计量经济学方法，对要素禀赋结构对出口产品结构优化的影响进行了实证检验，在分析了我国要素禀赋结构演进趋势的基础上，研究出口产品结构优化应遵循的发展战略，并提出促进出口产品结构优化的合理对策建议。
论文研究工作主要分为以下四部分：
第一部分包括论文的第1章和第2章，主要完成对前人研究成果的回顾和总结，从出口产品结构决定因素、出口产品与经济增长关系、出口产品结构动态演进、比较优势理论对出口产品结构优化的适用性研究和出口产品结构升级优化的对策研究等方面进行文献综述。另外按照从静态比较优势理论、动态比较优势理论和新-新贸易理论和国家竞争优势等理论框架，对出口产品结构优化的相关理论进行总结和梳理。
第二部分包括论文的第3章，主要研究我国出口产品结构和要素禀赋结构的历史演进：对我国出口产品结构进行阶段划分；分析我国出口贸易的主要特征及当前面临的主要问题；并利用显示性比较优势指数、贸易竞争指数和出口相似度指数对我国出口产品比较优势的演进趋势分别进行了纵向比较和与代表性国家间的横向比较。分析了我国资本、劳动、人力资本和技术等要素禀赋的演进趋势，并对比较优势战略对出口贸易的适用性进行了分析。
第三部分包括论文的第4章和第5章，主要完成对我国要素禀赋结构对出口产品结构的作用机理分析，并对我国要素禀赋结构对出口产品结构的影响进行实证检验。通过数理分析，要素禀赋结构主要通过资本积累、人力资本水平提升和技术进步三个路径影响出口产品结构。在此基础上整理加工1990年至2010年的数据，选取资本劳动比、人力资本水平、研发投入强度等指标作为自变量，我国资本和技术密集型产品占总出口中的比重作为因变量，采用协整分析得出上述自变量都对出口产品结构优化产生显著影响的结论。
第四部分是论文的第6章，分析我国出口产品结构优化应选择的路径，提出促进我国出口产品结构优化的对策建议，主要通过加大人力资本投资，提升人力资本水平；鼓励技术创新、促进技术进步，引导出口贸易的低碳模式转型等方式实现出口产品结构的不断优化和出口贸易的可持续发展。
With the accession to WTO, China’s economy has more tightly integrated into theworld economy, and China’s foreign trade has also made remark achievement. China hasbeen the largest goods exporter and the second largest goods importer of the world, in theyear2012the trade scale of China has amount to$388.68billion, the first time overtakethe America and become the country possessing the largest trade scale of the world. Withthe expansion of trade volume, the export structure has also been continually improvedand the share of electromechanical products and high-tech products in the export hasbeen increasing over years. By the year2012the electromechanical products andhigh-tech products has respectively accounted for57.56%and29.34of the export. Theexport structure is a comprehensive embodiment of a nation’s production, technology andeconomy development level, and the optimization of export structure had also showedthe improvement of the general industry competitiveness of China. But compared withmain developed countries of the world, China’s export still lies in the low level of thevalue chain of international specialization, in the meanwhile the pressure of the transitionof domestic economy growth pattern has become increasingly obvious, the restraint ofresource and environment also demands the upgrading of the traditional extensive exportgrowth pattern which mainly depends on the labor cost advantage. So to study therelevant theories and influencing factors of the optimization of export structure, andmake sound policies to promopt the export structure is important to both the sustainabledevelopment of China’s export and the transformation of the economy growth mode.
The dissertation studied the involved issues about the optimization path of exportstructure by the way of combining the theoretical research and empirical analysis. Itsummarized the related theories of export structure optimization, and utilized RCA, TCand ESI indices to study the evolution of the comparative advantages of China’s exportproducts. The dissertation also used economic theories and analysis instruments toanalyze the main paths through which the evolution of factor endowments influence onthe export structure, and tested the relations by econometric analysis. On the basis of theanalysis result of the factor endowments evolution the dissertation studied to what theorythat the export structure optimization should adhere, also the rationalized suggestions on how to prompt export structure optimization were proposed.
The main contents of the dissertation can be divided into four parts:
The first part consists of chapter one and chapter two. It mainly reviewed the relatedliteratures from the perspective of determination factors of export structure, relationsbetween export products with economy growth, the evolution of export structure,theoretical suitability of comparative advantage to export structure optimization and thecountermeasure study on export structure optimization. In this part the related theoriesincluding static comparative advantage, dynamic comparative advantage and enterpriseheterogeneity theories were summarized and reviewed.
The second part is chapter three. This chapter studied the evolution of China’sexport structure and classified it into three phases. It also analyzed the main problemsthat China’s export is facing, and used RCA, TC and ESI indices to compare thecomparative advantages evolution both in a vertical way and in a horizontal way amongrepresentative countries. This part also studied theoretical suitability of comparativeadvantage theories to export structure optimization and analyzed the evolution of China’sfactor endowment.
The third part includes chapter4and5. The part analyzed the mechanism throughwhich factor endowment impact the export structure and gave the empirical study. Theresult shows that capital accumulation, human capital promotion and technologicalprogress are main paths that have effects on export structure. It then choses above indicesas independent variables and the share of capita-technology intensive products inexport as dependent variable, using the data from1990to2010, to analyze the correlatedrelations. The co-integration analysis result confirmed the before-mentioned conclusion.
The fourth part is chapter six. This part analyzed the path to take to prompt theexport structure optimization. The main conclusions of the paper were proposed andcountermeasures and suggestions were proposed such as increasing investment on humancapital to enhance its level, encouraging technology innovation and guiding thetransformation of export pattern to a low-carbon development mode.
引文
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