基于免疫机理的流域生态系统健康诊断预警研究
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摘要
针对流域传统管理方式解决问题零碎和滞后的缺陷,提出流域生态系统管理观,引入“流域生态系统健康”的研究。健康的生态系统是人类赖以生存和发展的必要条件,维护与保持生态系统健康,是关系到人类前途和命运的重大课题。本文在系统科学和生态经济理论的指导下,运用多学科交叉的集成分析方法,研究流域生态系统健康的诊断预警问题。
把流域生态系统看作一个生命体研究其健康状况,以生态系统受胁迫为切入点,建立了基于压力—状态—响应模型的“生态系统健康”理论框架。作为生命体,流域生态系统需要一个能够维持其生命健康和稳定运行的机制。考虑到人体免疫系统具有自动检测并及时消除病毒、保障身体处于稳定正常状态的功能,因此恰好地借鉴了人体免疫系统的运行机制来设计“流域健康的免疫诊断预警系统”,包括:诊断识别子系统、预警信号子系统、协调控制子系统和记忆库,具备了警报、纠错和免疫功能。设计了流域生态系统健康诊断预警指标体系,开发了以改进的具有检测异常变化功能的否定选择算法为基本算法的“免疫预警方法”。最后结合黑河流域进行了实证研究,运用上述理论和方法,对黑河流域生态健康的现状和未来进行诊断预警,并提出相应的生态健康管理体系。
According to the shortcomings in traditional riverbasin management which was to solve issues individually and lag in time, riverbasin ecosystem management was put forward, and which result in study on theory of ecosystem health. Ecosystem health is an essential condition to support life existing and development. To keep and maintain ecosystem health is a key project which is closely related to future of human life. Under the guidance of theories in systematic science and ecological economics, through integrating multi-sciences, issues of riverbasin ecosystem diagnosing and early-warning were studied.Taking a stressed ecosystem as entry point, a riverbasin ecosystem was treated as an individual life form to study its health;and theory frame of ecosystem health which is based on Pressure-State-Response was established. As an individual life form, riverbasin ecosystem needs a steady operation mechanism to maintain its healthy life. Considering immune system has automatic diagnosing function, and could kill virus in time to ensure physical life form being in a normal stable state, thereby, the operation mechanism of immune system was referenced to design diagnosing and early-warning system of ecosystem health, which includes: diagnosing and identifying subsystem, warning signal subsystem, coordination control subsystem and memory database. The system was provided with functions of early warning and mistakes rectifying, as well as immune function. And in further, indicators system of detecting and warning for riverbasin ecosystem healthy was designed, immune warning method was developed as well, which was based on denial choice algorithm of abnormal change detecting. Finally, taking Heihe River basin as a case study area, the system was applied to diagnose and early-warn the current and future situations of ecosystem health of the riverbasin;and the corresponding countermeasures were put forward.
把流域生态系统看作一个生命体研究其健康状况,以生态系统受胁迫为切入点,建立了基于压力—状态—响应模型的“生态系统健康”理论框架。作为生命体,流域生态系统需要一个能够维持其生命健康和稳定运行的机制。考虑到人体免疫系统具有自动检测并及时消除病毒、保障身体处于稳定正常状态的功能,因此恰好地借鉴了人体免疫系统的运行机制来设计“流域健康的免疫诊断预警系统”,包括:诊断识别子系统、预警信号子系统、协调控制子系统和记忆库,具备了警报、纠错和免疫功能。设计了流域生态系统健康诊断预警指标体系,开发了以改进的具有检测异常变化功能的否定选择算法为基本算法的“免疫预警方法”。最后结合黑河流域进行了实证研究,运用上述理论和方法,对黑河流域生态健康的现状和未来进行诊断预警,并提出相应的生态健康管理体系。
According to the shortcomings in traditional riverbasin management which was to solve issues individually and lag in time, riverbasin ecosystem management was put forward, and which result in study on theory of ecosystem health. Ecosystem health is an essential condition to support life existing and development. To keep and maintain ecosystem health is a key project which is closely related to future of human life. Under the guidance of theories in systematic science and ecological economics, through integrating multi-sciences, issues of riverbasin ecosystem diagnosing and early-warning were studied.Taking a stressed ecosystem as entry point, a riverbasin ecosystem was treated as an individual life form to study its health;and theory frame of ecosystem health which is based on Pressure-State-Response was established. As an individual life form, riverbasin ecosystem needs a steady operation mechanism to maintain its healthy life. Considering immune system has automatic diagnosing function, and could kill virus in time to ensure physical life form being in a normal stable state, thereby, the operation mechanism of immune system was referenced to design diagnosing and early-warning system of ecosystem health, which includes: diagnosing and identifying subsystem, warning signal subsystem, coordination control subsystem and memory database. The system was provided with functions of early warning and mistakes rectifying, as well as immune function. And in further, indicators system of detecting and warning for riverbasin ecosystem healthy was designed, immune warning method was developed as well, which was based on denial choice algorithm of abnormal change detecting. Finally, taking Heihe River basin as a case study area, the system was applied to diagnose and early-warn the current and future situations of ecosystem health of the riverbasin;and the corresponding countermeasures were put forward.
引文
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