民航发动机机群调度优化与视情维修决策方法研究
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摘要
由于航空公司机队运行环境和季节性等因素的影响,一段时期航空公司会出现发动机的拆换率高峰,此时各航空公司的发动机往往都不够用。另一段时期,又会出现发动机的拆换率低谷,出现大量的发动机闲置库存,造成资金积压。如果只从单机出发,由于没有照顾到全机队的备用发动机(以下简称备发)资源状况及机队拆换率的不均衡等情况,容易因缺少发动机(以下简称缺发)导致飞机停飞、拆换率不均衡及备发数量过大等问题,造成经济和信誉度的双重损失。针对单机维修决策的局限性,本文以机群为考察对象,研究机群的调度优化和视情维修决策理论与方法。主要内容如下:
第一,研究了基于性能参数的航空发动机寿命预测方法。通过引入性能可靠性概念将可靠性和实际性能联系起来,建立了基于机群退化数据的平均寿命预测模型,得到了动态环境下机群平均寿命和性能可靠性控制方法。同时,结合两种时序分析方法,研究了基于单机退化数据的在翼剩余寿命预测方法,实例分析表明基于ARIMA模型的预测方法的精度优于基于HOLT算法的航空发动机在翼剩余寿命预测方法。
第二,调度计划涵盖了发动机使用、送修和库存等全方位信息,因此,本文从调度计划方法研究着手,综合考虑了大修成本、排序规则、梯次技术和发动机在翼寿命、备用发动机数量、计划期长度和保障率等多种成本驱动因素,建立了机群维修保障成本评估模型。与其它机群使用维修保障评估方法相比较,该方法更全面、更系统、更能体现航空公司安全与经济两大运营目标,可以用来指导航空公司的具体发动机维修管理活动。以此为基础进一步研究了基于带约束并行机调度遗传算法的航空发动机调度优化方法、SSPT拆换率平滑方法和最优备发数量确定方法,分别实例说明了各种方法的有效性。
第三,根据单机的功能故障时间点和风险,不能做出机队全局费用最优的下发时机决策。本章针对单台航空发动机维修决策的局限性,从工程实际需求出发,提出了基于状态的民航发动机机群维修的概念,建立了民航发动机机群维修决策的随机多目标函数模型,通过运用粗糙集理论和免疫粒子群方法优化了多台发动机在翼寿命以及时寿件的成组维修决策问题。
第四,在借鉴国内外调度的相关方法和软件的基础上,结合上海航空公司实际工程需求,运用机群维修决策理论和方法,开发了航空发动机调度系统。
Because of the operating environment and seasonal factors, during a period of time the engine removal peak rate will be appeared in the airline when the engines of the airlines are not enough. While for another period of time there would give rise to low engine removal rate, a large number of idle inventory and a backlog of funds. If considering the single engine only, without taking into account the preparation of resources of the whole fleet, it easily make due to lack of aircraft grounded, the unbalanced rate of fleet removal, the large number of spare engines and the double loss of the economy and credibility. To address limitations of the maintenance decision-making based on the single engine, fleet maintenance decision-making theory is researched in this thesis. The main research content is as following:
Firstly, a prediction method for the life of aero-engine based on the degradation data is researched by introducing the concept of performance reliability which linked the reliability and actual performance. The fleet performance reliability model based on Weibull distribution is established. The average expectancy life and performance reliability control method of the aero engine fleet are obtained under dynamic environment. And at the same time, a real-time reliability prediction method based on two time series analysis models is proposed applying on aero engine to predict the residual life of single aero engine on wings. The results indicate that the forecasting accuracy of the method based on. ARIMA model- is superior to the method-based on HOLT algorithm.
Secondly, a wide range of information of the engine repair, use and stocks is covered in the scheduling scheme. Therefore, an evaluation method of the fleet maintenance cost to scheduling program is proposed, cost drivers such as the cost of the overhaul, sorting rules, echelon technology, engine life on the wings, the number of spare engines, length of plans and the protection rate. Compared with other assessment methods for aero engine fleet maintenance and support, the method proposed in this paper is more comprehensive, more systematic and better realization of the airline security and economic objectives. It can be used to guide the airline's specific engine maintenance management activities. Based on this, some researches are developed such as the genetic algorithm of aero engine fleet scheduling with constrain of parallel machine, a SSPT (shifted shortest processing time) method to smooth the removal rate of aero engine fleet, the optimization method the amount of spare engine. Examples of analysis were used to illustrate the effectiveness of these methods.
Thirdly, according to the time and risk of functional failure based on single engine, the optimal timing of fleet maintenance decisions making under the overall cost can not be made. Therefore, to avoid the limit of single engine maintenance decision making, a random multi-objective decision making model of fleet maintenance and optimization method is studied based on conditions from practice. A concept about fleet maintenance decisions making is proposed based on contions. A decision-making method for the removal timing of aero engine and life limited parts is established by introducing the profomace condicong which resulted in a security risk and loss of machine performance and the materials cost of components. Applying the combination method based on rough set theory to estimate the cost of maintenance, the removal timing of engine and life limited parts is optimized by particle swarm method of immunization.
Fourthly, based on the relevant methods of scheduling and software of home and abroad, combining Shanghai Airlines practical works, an aero engine scheduling system is developed by using the theory and methods of fleet maintenance decision.
第一,研究了基于性能参数的航空发动机寿命预测方法。通过引入性能可靠性概念将可靠性和实际性能联系起来,建立了基于机群退化数据的平均寿命预测模型,得到了动态环境下机群平均寿命和性能可靠性控制方法。同时,结合两种时序分析方法,研究了基于单机退化数据的在翼剩余寿命预测方法,实例分析表明基于ARIMA模型的预测方法的精度优于基于HOLT算法的航空发动机在翼剩余寿命预测方法。
第二,调度计划涵盖了发动机使用、送修和库存等全方位信息,因此,本文从调度计划方法研究着手,综合考虑了大修成本、排序规则、梯次技术和发动机在翼寿命、备用发动机数量、计划期长度和保障率等多种成本驱动因素,建立了机群维修保障成本评估模型。与其它机群使用维修保障评估方法相比较,该方法更全面、更系统、更能体现航空公司安全与经济两大运营目标,可以用来指导航空公司的具体发动机维修管理活动。以此为基础进一步研究了基于带约束并行机调度遗传算法的航空发动机调度优化方法、SSPT拆换率平滑方法和最优备发数量确定方法,分别实例说明了各种方法的有效性。
第三,根据单机的功能故障时间点和风险,不能做出机队全局费用最优的下发时机决策。本章针对单台航空发动机维修决策的局限性,从工程实际需求出发,提出了基于状态的民航发动机机群维修的概念,建立了民航发动机机群维修决策的随机多目标函数模型,通过运用粗糙集理论和免疫粒子群方法优化了多台发动机在翼寿命以及时寿件的成组维修决策问题。
第四,在借鉴国内外调度的相关方法和软件的基础上,结合上海航空公司实际工程需求,运用机群维修决策理论和方法,开发了航空发动机调度系统。
Because of the operating environment and seasonal factors, during a period of time the engine removal peak rate will be appeared in the airline when the engines of the airlines are not enough. While for another period of time there would give rise to low engine removal rate, a large number of idle inventory and a backlog of funds. If considering the single engine only, without taking into account the preparation of resources of the whole fleet, it easily make due to lack of aircraft grounded, the unbalanced rate of fleet removal, the large number of spare engines and the double loss of the economy and credibility. To address limitations of the maintenance decision-making based on the single engine, fleet maintenance decision-making theory is researched in this thesis. The main research content is as following:
Firstly, a prediction method for the life of aero-engine based on the degradation data is researched by introducing the concept of performance reliability which linked the reliability and actual performance. The fleet performance reliability model based on Weibull distribution is established. The average expectancy life and performance reliability control method of the aero engine fleet are obtained under dynamic environment. And at the same time, a real-time reliability prediction method based on two time series analysis models is proposed applying on aero engine to predict the residual life of single aero engine on wings. The results indicate that the forecasting accuracy of the method based on. ARIMA model- is superior to the method-based on HOLT algorithm.
Secondly, a wide range of information of the engine repair, use and stocks is covered in the scheduling scheme. Therefore, an evaluation method of the fleet maintenance cost to scheduling program is proposed, cost drivers such as the cost of the overhaul, sorting rules, echelon technology, engine life on the wings, the number of spare engines, length of plans and the protection rate. Compared with other assessment methods for aero engine fleet maintenance and support, the method proposed in this paper is more comprehensive, more systematic and better realization of the airline security and economic objectives. It can be used to guide the airline's specific engine maintenance management activities. Based on this, some researches are developed such as the genetic algorithm of aero engine fleet scheduling with constrain of parallel machine, a SSPT (shifted shortest processing time) method to smooth the removal rate of aero engine fleet, the optimization method the amount of spare engine. Examples of analysis were used to illustrate the effectiveness of these methods.
Thirdly, according to the time and risk of functional failure based on single engine, the optimal timing of fleet maintenance decisions making under the overall cost can not be made. Therefore, to avoid the limit of single engine maintenance decision making, a random multi-objective decision making model of fleet maintenance and optimization method is studied based on conditions from practice. A concept about fleet maintenance decisions making is proposed based on contions. A decision-making method for the removal timing of aero engine and life limited parts is established by introducing the profomace condicong which resulted in a security risk and loss of machine performance and the materials cost of components. Applying the combination method based on rough set theory to estimate the cost of maintenance, the removal timing of engine and life limited parts is optimized by particle swarm method of immunization.
Fourthly, based on the relevant methods of scheduling and software of home and abroad, combining Shanghai Airlines practical works, an aero engine scheduling system is developed by using the theory and methods of fleet maintenance decision.
引文
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