供应链需求和结构不确定性问题研究
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摘要
供应链管理是近几年来在国内外备受广泛重视的一种新型的管理理念。这种管理理念能减少物流流通时间及社会库存,降低成本,提高产品质量和管理效率,从经营战略上加强企业的竞争优势,许多企业已将其视为决胜未来的重要工具。然而,由于供应链是一个由供应商、制造商、销售商等组成的复杂的网络结构,所以,充满了许多不确定性因素。这些不确定性因素不仅会影响企业运作的绩效,还会导致企业生产延迟、成本提高、品质下降、存货提高、以及顾客满意度下降等负面效果。这些因素如果不能得到及时消除,必将严重影响供应链的整体运作水平和竞争优势。因此,如何降低和应对不确定,是制定供应链策略的重大挑战。
根据供应链管理运作所面临的问题,及当前供应链管理相关研究之不足,本论文主要针对供应链运作过程中所涵盖的需求不确与结构不确定两个方面进行分析。
首先论文对不确定以及供应链的概念和特征进行了分析,奠定了分析供应链不确定性的理论基础;进而从供应链结构、环境等不同角度对供应链不确定性种类以及引起不确定性的各种原因进行了归纳和分析。
在这些不确定性中,其中需求的不确定性是最难控制的。市场需求的不确定将给供应链企业的生产决策和物流决策造成障碍,通过对供应链需求不确定性的众多因素的探讨,能帮助企业从不确定性中寻求确定性,制定有效的营销策略。本文不仅从环境与消费者自身因素两个方面对引发顾客需求不确定性的因素进行了定性分析,而且从定量的角度,对引发消费者购买决策不确定进行了深入分析。并对降低需求不确定性发生的预防策略:预测、信息共享和供应链契约等进行了简单介绍。在此基础上,对供小于求条件下,供应商与销售商之间的契约问题进行了深入研究。
对供应商与销售商之间的契约问题研究都是假定供大于求的条件下,刺激销售商增加订购量,扩大产品的销售量。但有关供小于求的条件下,限制销售商订购量的研究则很少。然而供小于求的现象却存在于现实经济活动中,特别在资源方面相当严重。本文正是基于这一形势,在具有随机市场需求的前提下,对如何限制销售商订购量、同时减低买卖双方的风险、促进供应链之间和谐发展的问题进行了深入研究,并建立了基于供小于求条件下供应链之间的价格契约模型。
采用适当的预防策略可以在一定程度上降低需求不确定的影响,但效果不是很明显(特别是对于创新型产品,他们的需求可预测性很差)。因此,如何设计合理的供应链结构降低不确定性的影响是值得广泛关注的一个问题。论文对供应链结构具有的特征进行了简单介绍,从信息的角度、从供应链拓扑结构模型的角度、从供应链的结构模式角度三个方面对引发供应链结构不确定性的因素进行了定性分析与归纳。
构建合理的供应链结构是减少供应链结构不确定的有效方法——本文探讨了利用供应链系统可以分解为串联或并联关系,讨论了基于可靠度理论的供应链两种构建模式,及最大可靠度和最小费用的供应链结构优化问题。
供应链柔性策略应用对于降低不确定起到缓冲机制的作用。本文对柔性概念、特点、实施柔性的必要性、实施柔性的绩效等进行了较为系统阐述;并对柔性策略在供应链管理中的实际运用策略进行了简单介绍;并介绍了供应链生产柔性有效边际的确定方法,有利于决策者在确定供应链柔性水平时,寻求最佳柔性水平,找出柔性价值和柔性成本之间的平衡点,为企业进行系统投资决策、选择合适的柔性参数提供技术支持,使供应链获得最大化收益。
The supply chain management is a new management in the last years. This kind of management principle can reduce a logistics to circulate time and social stock, decline cost, raise the product quality and management efficiency; many business enterprises have already treated it as the important tool of obtaining success in the future, to strengthen the competitive of the business enterprise. The supply chain is a network structure, filled with the supplier, the manufacture, and the seller etc, it is complexity, dynamic and cross, therefore it is full of uncertainty. These uncertainty factors not only will affect the performance of enterprise operation, but also will cause business enterprise produce delay, the cost increase, quality descends, stock increase, and the customer satisfaction descend etc...If we can't get to remove these factors in time, it will influence the whole operation level and competitive advantage of the supply chain seriously. Accordingly, how to prevent and cope with the uncertainty is important in planning a supply chain strategy.
According to the problem that the operation of supply chain management and the shortage of related research about supply chain manages current. This paper mainly analyzes the two kinds of uncertainty: demand and structure, in the process of supply chain operation.
First, this paper analyzes the concept and characteristic of uncertainty and supply chain, then conclude and analytical the category of uncertain factor and various reason to caused uncertainty from the different point of view such as structure and environment etc.
The supply chain is full of uncertainty. In these uncertainty, the demand uncertainty is the most difficult to control. The uncertainty in market will give impediment in production decision and the logistics decision of the supply chain business enterprise, through the study of uncertainty factors to the supply chain demand, can help a business enterprise to look for assurance from the uncertainty, draw up valid marketing strategy. The paper not only analyzes the cause of formation from the environment and the consumer factor qualitatively, but also thorough analyzes consumer uncertainty of purchase decision quantitatively. Then introduces simplexes the strategy of preventing demand uncertainty: forecast, information share, supply chain contract etc., according to this situation, carries on the thorough research to that contract problem between buyer and seller under supply behind demand in realistic economic activities.
However in recent years, contract problem in supply chain between buyer and seller is mostly under oversupply, to stimulate seller to increase the order. But the study of promote harmonious development under supply behind demand to limit the order is less. However the phenomenon of supply behind demand exist in realistic economic activities, special in the resourcest.This text exactly according to this situation, carries on the thorough research to that problem which how to limit order, how to turn down the risk about both buyer and seller, how to promote supply chain diapason development in the presupposition of random market, build price contract model in supply chain under supply behind demand.
The strategy of preventing can lower the influence of the demand uncertainty, but the result isn't very obvious (especially for creative type, their demand uncertainty can predict badly).Therefore how to design reasonable structure of the supply chain to lower uncertainty is an important problem. The paper introduces the characteristic of the structure of supply chain simply, analyzes the factor of causing structure uncertainty in the supply chain qualitative from the different point of view such as the communications and the topologies and the mode.
Set up the reasonable supply chain structure is to reduce uncertainty in the supply chain.Throught the complex system can be decomposed into series or parallel systems, this paper studies the structural models of supply chain from the different point of view such as dimension of the supply chain is the complexity and the number of supplier be selected is uncertainty. The method of the superior allotment about the biggest reliability, the minimum expenses and the supplier choice problem is discussed.
The strategy of flexible is used to lower the uncertainty. The paper set forth flexibility concept, flexibility characteristics, necessity of implement flexibility, performance carried out flexibility results etc systemic; and introduce strategy of flexibility in practice; introduce how to ensure the efficient frontiers of supply chain, help the decision-making t to look for the best choice of flexibility's level, the equilibrium point flexible value and cost, provide technical support for enterprise to invest and choice parameter of flexibility, further put forward the arithmetic of the efficient frontiers of supply chain.
根据供应链管理运作所面临的问题,及当前供应链管理相关研究之不足,本论文主要针对供应链运作过程中所涵盖的需求不确与结构不确定两个方面进行分析。
首先论文对不确定以及供应链的概念和特征进行了分析,奠定了分析供应链不确定性的理论基础;进而从供应链结构、环境等不同角度对供应链不确定性种类以及引起不确定性的各种原因进行了归纳和分析。
在这些不确定性中,其中需求的不确定性是最难控制的。市场需求的不确定将给供应链企业的生产决策和物流决策造成障碍,通过对供应链需求不确定性的众多因素的探讨,能帮助企业从不确定性中寻求确定性,制定有效的营销策略。本文不仅从环境与消费者自身因素两个方面对引发顾客需求不确定性的因素进行了定性分析,而且从定量的角度,对引发消费者购买决策不确定进行了深入分析。并对降低需求不确定性发生的预防策略:预测、信息共享和供应链契约等进行了简单介绍。在此基础上,对供小于求条件下,供应商与销售商之间的契约问题进行了深入研究。
对供应商与销售商之间的契约问题研究都是假定供大于求的条件下,刺激销售商增加订购量,扩大产品的销售量。但有关供小于求的条件下,限制销售商订购量的研究则很少。然而供小于求的现象却存在于现实经济活动中,特别在资源方面相当严重。本文正是基于这一形势,在具有随机市场需求的前提下,对如何限制销售商订购量、同时减低买卖双方的风险、促进供应链之间和谐发展的问题进行了深入研究,并建立了基于供小于求条件下供应链之间的价格契约模型。
采用适当的预防策略可以在一定程度上降低需求不确定的影响,但效果不是很明显(特别是对于创新型产品,他们的需求可预测性很差)。因此,如何设计合理的供应链结构降低不确定性的影响是值得广泛关注的一个问题。论文对供应链结构具有的特征进行了简单介绍,从信息的角度、从供应链拓扑结构模型的角度、从供应链的结构模式角度三个方面对引发供应链结构不确定性的因素进行了定性分析与归纳。
构建合理的供应链结构是减少供应链结构不确定的有效方法——本文探讨了利用供应链系统可以分解为串联或并联关系,讨论了基于可靠度理论的供应链两种构建模式,及最大可靠度和最小费用的供应链结构优化问题。
供应链柔性策略应用对于降低不确定起到缓冲机制的作用。本文对柔性概念、特点、实施柔性的必要性、实施柔性的绩效等进行了较为系统阐述;并对柔性策略在供应链管理中的实际运用策略进行了简单介绍;并介绍了供应链生产柔性有效边际的确定方法,有利于决策者在确定供应链柔性水平时,寻求最佳柔性水平,找出柔性价值和柔性成本之间的平衡点,为企业进行系统投资决策、选择合适的柔性参数提供技术支持,使供应链获得最大化收益。
The supply chain management is a new management in the last years. This kind of management principle can reduce a logistics to circulate time and social stock, decline cost, raise the product quality and management efficiency; many business enterprises have already treated it as the important tool of obtaining success in the future, to strengthen the competitive of the business enterprise. The supply chain is a network structure, filled with the supplier, the manufacture, and the seller etc, it is complexity, dynamic and cross, therefore it is full of uncertainty. These uncertainty factors not only will affect the performance of enterprise operation, but also will cause business enterprise produce delay, the cost increase, quality descends, stock increase, and the customer satisfaction descend etc...If we can't get to remove these factors in time, it will influence the whole operation level and competitive advantage of the supply chain seriously. Accordingly, how to prevent and cope with the uncertainty is important in planning a supply chain strategy.
According to the problem that the operation of supply chain management and the shortage of related research about supply chain manages current. This paper mainly analyzes the two kinds of uncertainty: demand and structure, in the process of supply chain operation.
First, this paper analyzes the concept and characteristic of uncertainty and supply chain, then conclude and analytical the category of uncertain factor and various reason to caused uncertainty from the different point of view such as structure and environment etc.
The supply chain is full of uncertainty. In these uncertainty, the demand uncertainty is the most difficult to control. The uncertainty in market will give impediment in production decision and the logistics decision of the supply chain business enterprise, through the study of uncertainty factors to the supply chain demand, can help a business enterprise to look for assurance from the uncertainty, draw up valid marketing strategy. The paper not only analyzes the cause of formation from the environment and the consumer factor qualitatively, but also thorough analyzes consumer uncertainty of purchase decision quantitatively. Then introduces simplexes the strategy of preventing demand uncertainty: forecast, information share, supply chain contract etc., according to this situation, carries on the thorough research to that contract problem between buyer and seller under supply behind demand in realistic economic activities.
However in recent years, contract problem in supply chain between buyer and seller is mostly under oversupply, to stimulate seller to increase the order. But the study of promote harmonious development under supply behind demand to limit the order is less. However the phenomenon of supply behind demand exist in realistic economic activities, special in the resourcest.This text exactly according to this situation, carries on the thorough research to that problem which how to limit order, how to turn down the risk about both buyer and seller, how to promote supply chain diapason development in the presupposition of random market, build price contract model in supply chain under supply behind demand.
The strategy of preventing can lower the influence of the demand uncertainty, but the result isn't very obvious (especially for creative type, their demand uncertainty can predict badly).Therefore how to design reasonable structure of the supply chain to lower uncertainty is an important problem. The paper introduces the characteristic of the structure of supply chain simply, analyzes the factor of causing structure uncertainty in the supply chain qualitative from the different point of view such as the communications and the topologies and the mode.
Set up the reasonable supply chain structure is to reduce uncertainty in the supply chain.Throught the complex system can be decomposed into series or parallel systems, this paper studies the structural models of supply chain from the different point of view such as dimension of the supply chain is the complexity and the number of supplier be selected is uncertainty. The method of the superior allotment about the biggest reliability, the minimum expenses and the supplier choice problem is discussed.
The strategy of flexible is used to lower the uncertainty. The paper set forth flexibility concept, flexibility characteristics, necessity of implement flexibility, performance carried out flexibility results etc systemic; and introduce strategy of flexibility in practice; introduce how to ensure the efficient frontiers of supply chain, help the decision-making t to look for the best choice of flexibility's level, the equilibrium point flexible value and cost, provide technical support for enterprise to invest and choice parameter of flexibility, further put forward the arithmetic of the efficient frontiers of supply chain.
引文
[1]http://info.jctrans.com/wl/ly/glys/20061124353940.shtml
[2]http://www.chinawuliu.com.cn/cflp/newss/contentl/
[3]http://www.365u.com.cn/WenZhang/Detail/Article_111890.html
[4]http://www.cnexp.net/huoyun_wuliu_yunshu/wuliuan
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