新兴技术的形成路径及其影响因素研究
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摘要
新兴技术以其“创造性毁灭”的特征为后来者实现技术和经济跨越创造了机会,已受到各国政府、企业界和管理学界的高度重视。但新兴技术的高度不确定性和复杂性也让现有的管理理论面临极大的挑战。现实中,人们往往是在新兴技术市场爆发后才感受到新兴技术改变传统行业和创造新行业的巨大影响力,目前较多的研究也是对已经出现了“创造性毁灭”特征的技术采用回溯性研究的思路称之为新兴技术。那么,在新兴技术形成初期,也就是以某项高科技技术为主导的行业还未形成或是行业特征并不突出,更谈不上对传统行业的创造性毁灭的时期,企业应该如何发现这样的技术?如何选择技术发展之路?必备哪些资源与条件?朝着哪些方向付诸努力才能使这项技术成为真正意义上的新兴技术,并在创造新兴行业过程中获得先动优势,甚至成为主导企业,这些对企业至关重要,也恰好是现有新兴技术管理研究中较为薄弱之处。因此,本文站在企业角度,针对新兴技术形成过程中有别于传统技术的不连续性、非均衡性,选择新兴技术起源、形成路径、影响因素及路径与影响因素之间的关系作为研究主题,以期为新兴技术管理研究和企业实践做出有益探索。
本文借助技术系统、创新生态系统、战略管理、组织管理、营销管理、演化经济学和微观经济学等理论,对新兴技术起源、形成路径的概念及内涵进行辨析和界定,确定研究起点,并阐释其理论基础;从技术不连续创新和物种进化角度探寻了新兴技术起源及形成路径;用典型案例来揭示企业作为创新主体在新兴技术形成过程中的能动性,阐明企业对新兴技术形成路径的选择是一个动态评估的过程;基于该动态过程中风险源识别的视角找出影响新兴技术路径形成因素组成并构建了“技术自身—技术环境—企业组织”的三维因素分析框架,提出了新兴技术形成路径与影响因素的关系模型和相关假设;最后基于中国企业调查的实证数据,验证了相关理论推演,并通过对企业实际数据的统计分析找出了新兴技术形成路径与影响因素之间规律性,揭示出各种路径下的企业特征和需要重点关注的关键影响因素。论文研究得出以下主要结论:
第一,新兴技术不是个单纯的技术概念,而是一个企业、技术、环境等多因素共同作用的动态发展的过程,具有阶段性特点。因技术起源不同,将沿着特定路径发展演变而逐渐形成,过程中可用创新绩效来预测其商业化潜在价值,判断其是否具有新兴技术特质。
第二,新兴技术起源来自于技术进步的不连续和应用扩展的不连续,并通过两个方向的持续的协同作用,相互促进,才能实现技术突破和市场爆发,形成真正意义上的新兴技术;以高技术为起点,在同时考虑技术进步不连续和应用扩展不连续情况下,新兴技术可以通过技术突破、技术植入、应用创新、融合创新四条路径形成;借助物种进化理论中基于遗传物质变化、地理环境影响、物种的作用机制可对四种路径做出解释。
第三,企业对新兴技术形成路径起着主导作用,即使是成熟的技术也可以通过企业的动态评估管理将其发展成为新兴技术,并针对该过程中4个基本步骤和2个重要环节识别出风险组成,找出新兴技术路径形成的影响因素,按技术自身、技术环境、企业组织三个维度进行归纳和分层。
第四,新兴技术形成路径与影响因素关系可通过“技术自身—技术环境—企业组织”的三维因素分析框架进行分析,新兴技术的创新绩效取决于三维因素构成的技术系统内要素的共同作用。实证数据统计分析的结果,支持以“技术自身”、“技术环境”和“企业组织”三个维度、六个亚层、79个测度指标所形成的量表设计;验证了只有分路径讨论时,提取的13个表征影响因素的独立变量与表征企业创新绩效变量的销售收入增长率之间存在显著的线性相关关系。
第五,样本数据统计分析表明,众多中国企业在推动新兴技术的发展过程中,表现出路径差异。大体上,技术突破路径的企业呈现出规模小、经营年限短,以研发型企业居多;技术植入路径的企业,规模经营年限有所增加,以研发、生产型企业为主;应用创新型路径的企业销售收入增长率最高,呈现扩张态势,以生产服务型企业居多;融合创新路径的企业呈现出规模大,成熟的特点。
第六,样本数据回归分析结果表明,13个独立因子(影响因素)对企业创新绩效的影响程度(各因子的回归系数)因路径不同而呈现出差异,由此比较得出了针对每一种路径的关键影响因素。
With its characteristics of“creative destruction”, emerging technologies have created opportunities for latecomers to realize leaping development, and have been highly regarded by governments, business circles and management scholars. At the same time, emerging technologies’high uncertainty and complexity also let the existing management theory face great challenges. In reality, people always feel the great influence of emerging technologies to change traditional industries and create new industries after the outbreak of emerging markets. At percent, emerging technologies refer to those technologies that have shown“creative destruction”characteristic which are researched by people using retrospective study. So, at the early formation time of emerging technologies, namely the time that a high technology-oriented industry hasn’t yet formed or industry features are not prominent, let alone the creative destruction to traditional industries, how to find out such technology for enterprises , how to select technology development paths, what resources are necessary, what direction enterprises should take effort in order to make this technology convert to a real sense of emerging technology, and gain first-mover advantages in the process of creating new industry, even become the leading enterprise? These are crucial for enterprises, but also are weak points for current research on managing emerging technologies. Therefore, this dissertation, standing in the perspective of enterprises, aims to discontinuities and non-equilibrium in the process of formation of emerging technologies which is different from traditional technologies, chooses the origin of emerging technologies, formation paths, influence factors paths and the relationship between influence factors as its research topic in order to make a useful exploration for the research on managing emerging technologies and enterprise practices.
Based on theories of technology systems, innovative eco-systems, strategic management, organizational management, marketing management, evolutionary economics and microeconomic, this dissertation analyzed and defined emerging technologies’origin and formation paths’concept and connotation, confirmed the starting point and explained its theoretical foundation; from the perspective of discontinuous innovation and species evolution, this dissertation explored the origin of emerging technologies and its formation paths; by using typical cases, this dissertation revealed enterprises’(innovation subject) initiative in the formation process of emerging technologies and clarified that enterprises chooses emerging technologies formation paths was a dynamic assessment process; based on the perspective of risk source recognition in dynamic process, this dissertation found out the factors that affect the formation of emerging technologies paths and constructed a 3d factor analysis framework which formed by“technical performance - technology application - enterprise organization”, then proposed relational model and related assumptions between emerging technologies formation paths and influence factors; lastly based on empirical data, this dissertation verified related theoretical derivation, and through statistical analysis enterprises’actual data to identify the regularity between emerging technologies formation paths and influence factors, then revealed enterprises characteristics and key influence factors that need focus on under various paths. This dissertation reached the following conclusions:
First, emerging technology is not a simple technical concept, but a dynamic development process in which factors, such as enterprises, technologies and environment, are interaction, alone with phased characteristics. Due to the different technology origins, a technology will follow a particular path to develop and innovation performance can be used to predict its commercial potential in the process in order to judge whether it has the characteristics of emerging technologies.
Second, emerging technology originates from discontinuity of technological progress and application expansion. Only through two directions’continuing synergy and promotion each other can realize technology breakthroughs and market break out, and then become a real sense of emerging technology. With high-tech as a starting point, taking discontinuity of technological progress and application expansion into consideration, emerging technologies can be formed through 4 paths which refer to technological breakthrough, technological implant, applied innovation and integrating innovation. Genetic material change, the impact of geographical environment and species mechanism which included in the theory of species evolution can be used to explain the four paths.
Third, enterprises play a leading role in the formation paths of emerging technologies, even if those unadvanced technologies can be developed into emerging technologies through enterprises dynamic assessment management. Through four basic steps and two important parts, enterprises can identify the risk composition and find out the factors that influence the formation of emerging technologies paths. These risks and factors can be summarized and stratified in accordance with three dimensions which makes up by technology itself, technical environment and enterprise organization.
Fourth, the relationship between emerging technologies formation paths and influence factors can be analyzed by the three dimensions factor analysis framework and the innovation performance of emerging technologies depends on the interaction of three dimensions factors (technical performance, technology application, enterprise organization). The results of statistical analysis of empirical data support the scale design which contains three dimensions factors (technical performance, technology application, and enterprise organization), six sub-layer, and 79 measure indexes. It is also verified that there exists a linear relationship between extracted 13 independent variables of characterization influence factors and sales revenue growth of characterization innovative performance variables only through sub-path discussion.
Fifth, many Chinese enterprises in promoting the development of emerging technologies have showed paths difference. In general, the enterprise choose technological breakthroughs path have shown the characteristics of small scale, short operation time and most are R&D enterprises; the enterprise choose technical implant path have shown the characteristics of larger scale than those enterprise choose technological breakthroughs path, longer operation time than those enterprise choose technological breakthroughs path, and most are R&D and production enterprises; the enterprise choose applied innovation path have shown the characteristics of the highest sales growth rate, a trend of expansion and most are production service enterprises; the enterprise choose integrating innovation path have shown the characteristics of large-scale, maturity.
Sixth, regression results show that 13 independent factors (influence factors) have different influence degree (Regression coefficient of each factor) to enterprise innovation performance because of the different of paths. So, the key influence factors that belong to a particular path can be got by comparison.
本文借助技术系统、创新生态系统、战略管理、组织管理、营销管理、演化经济学和微观经济学等理论,对新兴技术起源、形成路径的概念及内涵进行辨析和界定,确定研究起点,并阐释其理论基础;从技术不连续创新和物种进化角度探寻了新兴技术起源及形成路径;用典型案例来揭示企业作为创新主体在新兴技术形成过程中的能动性,阐明企业对新兴技术形成路径的选择是一个动态评估的过程;基于该动态过程中风险源识别的视角找出影响新兴技术路径形成因素组成并构建了“技术自身—技术环境—企业组织”的三维因素分析框架,提出了新兴技术形成路径与影响因素的关系模型和相关假设;最后基于中国企业调查的实证数据,验证了相关理论推演,并通过对企业实际数据的统计分析找出了新兴技术形成路径与影响因素之间规律性,揭示出各种路径下的企业特征和需要重点关注的关键影响因素。论文研究得出以下主要结论:
第一,新兴技术不是个单纯的技术概念,而是一个企业、技术、环境等多因素共同作用的动态发展的过程,具有阶段性特点。因技术起源不同,将沿着特定路径发展演变而逐渐形成,过程中可用创新绩效来预测其商业化潜在价值,判断其是否具有新兴技术特质。
第二,新兴技术起源来自于技术进步的不连续和应用扩展的不连续,并通过两个方向的持续的协同作用,相互促进,才能实现技术突破和市场爆发,形成真正意义上的新兴技术;以高技术为起点,在同时考虑技术进步不连续和应用扩展不连续情况下,新兴技术可以通过技术突破、技术植入、应用创新、融合创新四条路径形成;借助物种进化理论中基于遗传物质变化、地理环境影响、物种的作用机制可对四种路径做出解释。
第三,企业对新兴技术形成路径起着主导作用,即使是成熟的技术也可以通过企业的动态评估管理将其发展成为新兴技术,并针对该过程中4个基本步骤和2个重要环节识别出风险组成,找出新兴技术路径形成的影响因素,按技术自身、技术环境、企业组织三个维度进行归纳和分层。
第四,新兴技术形成路径与影响因素关系可通过“技术自身—技术环境—企业组织”的三维因素分析框架进行分析,新兴技术的创新绩效取决于三维因素构成的技术系统内要素的共同作用。实证数据统计分析的结果,支持以“技术自身”、“技术环境”和“企业组织”三个维度、六个亚层、79个测度指标所形成的量表设计;验证了只有分路径讨论时,提取的13个表征影响因素的独立变量与表征企业创新绩效变量的销售收入增长率之间存在显著的线性相关关系。
第五,样本数据统计分析表明,众多中国企业在推动新兴技术的发展过程中,表现出路径差异。大体上,技术突破路径的企业呈现出规模小、经营年限短,以研发型企业居多;技术植入路径的企业,规模经营年限有所增加,以研发、生产型企业为主;应用创新型路径的企业销售收入增长率最高,呈现扩张态势,以生产服务型企业居多;融合创新路径的企业呈现出规模大,成熟的特点。
第六,样本数据回归分析结果表明,13个独立因子(影响因素)对企业创新绩效的影响程度(各因子的回归系数)因路径不同而呈现出差异,由此比较得出了针对每一种路径的关键影响因素。
With its characteristics of“creative destruction”, emerging technologies have created opportunities for latecomers to realize leaping development, and have been highly regarded by governments, business circles and management scholars. At the same time, emerging technologies’high uncertainty and complexity also let the existing management theory face great challenges. In reality, people always feel the great influence of emerging technologies to change traditional industries and create new industries after the outbreak of emerging markets. At percent, emerging technologies refer to those technologies that have shown“creative destruction”characteristic which are researched by people using retrospective study. So, at the early formation time of emerging technologies, namely the time that a high technology-oriented industry hasn’t yet formed or industry features are not prominent, let alone the creative destruction to traditional industries, how to find out such technology for enterprises , how to select technology development paths, what resources are necessary, what direction enterprises should take effort in order to make this technology convert to a real sense of emerging technology, and gain first-mover advantages in the process of creating new industry, even become the leading enterprise? These are crucial for enterprises, but also are weak points for current research on managing emerging technologies. Therefore, this dissertation, standing in the perspective of enterprises, aims to discontinuities and non-equilibrium in the process of formation of emerging technologies which is different from traditional technologies, chooses the origin of emerging technologies, formation paths, influence factors paths and the relationship between influence factors as its research topic in order to make a useful exploration for the research on managing emerging technologies and enterprise practices.
Based on theories of technology systems, innovative eco-systems, strategic management, organizational management, marketing management, evolutionary economics and microeconomic, this dissertation analyzed and defined emerging technologies’origin and formation paths’concept and connotation, confirmed the starting point and explained its theoretical foundation; from the perspective of discontinuous innovation and species evolution, this dissertation explored the origin of emerging technologies and its formation paths; by using typical cases, this dissertation revealed enterprises’(innovation subject) initiative in the formation process of emerging technologies and clarified that enterprises chooses emerging technologies formation paths was a dynamic assessment process; based on the perspective of risk source recognition in dynamic process, this dissertation found out the factors that affect the formation of emerging technologies paths and constructed a 3d factor analysis framework which formed by“technical performance - technology application - enterprise organization”, then proposed relational model and related assumptions between emerging technologies formation paths and influence factors; lastly based on empirical data, this dissertation verified related theoretical derivation, and through statistical analysis enterprises’actual data to identify the regularity between emerging technologies formation paths and influence factors, then revealed enterprises characteristics and key influence factors that need focus on under various paths. This dissertation reached the following conclusions:
First, emerging technology is not a simple technical concept, but a dynamic development process in which factors, such as enterprises, technologies and environment, are interaction, alone with phased characteristics. Due to the different technology origins, a technology will follow a particular path to develop and innovation performance can be used to predict its commercial potential in the process in order to judge whether it has the characteristics of emerging technologies.
Second, emerging technology originates from discontinuity of technological progress and application expansion. Only through two directions’continuing synergy and promotion each other can realize technology breakthroughs and market break out, and then become a real sense of emerging technology. With high-tech as a starting point, taking discontinuity of technological progress and application expansion into consideration, emerging technologies can be formed through 4 paths which refer to technological breakthrough, technological implant, applied innovation and integrating innovation. Genetic material change, the impact of geographical environment and species mechanism which included in the theory of species evolution can be used to explain the four paths.
Third, enterprises play a leading role in the formation paths of emerging technologies, even if those unadvanced technologies can be developed into emerging technologies through enterprises dynamic assessment management. Through four basic steps and two important parts, enterprises can identify the risk composition and find out the factors that influence the formation of emerging technologies paths. These risks and factors can be summarized and stratified in accordance with three dimensions which makes up by technology itself, technical environment and enterprise organization.
Fourth, the relationship between emerging technologies formation paths and influence factors can be analyzed by the three dimensions factor analysis framework and the innovation performance of emerging technologies depends on the interaction of three dimensions factors (technical performance, technology application, enterprise organization). The results of statistical analysis of empirical data support the scale design which contains three dimensions factors (technical performance, technology application, and enterprise organization), six sub-layer, and 79 measure indexes. It is also verified that there exists a linear relationship between extracted 13 independent variables of characterization influence factors and sales revenue growth of characterization innovative performance variables only through sub-path discussion.
Fifth, many Chinese enterprises in promoting the development of emerging technologies have showed paths difference. In general, the enterprise choose technological breakthroughs path have shown the characteristics of small scale, short operation time and most are R&D enterprises; the enterprise choose technical implant path have shown the characteristics of larger scale than those enterprise choose technological breakthroughs path, longer operation time than those enterprise choose technological breakthroughs path, and most are R&D and production enterprises; the enterprise choose applied innovation path have shown the characteristics of the highest sales growth rate, a trend of expansion and most are production service enterprises; the enterprise choose integrating innovation path have shown the characteristics of large-scale, maturity.
Sixth, regression results show that 13 independent factors (influence factors) have different influence degree (Regression coefficient of each factor) to enterprise innovation performance because of the different of paths. So, the key influence factors that belong to a particular path can be got by comparison.
引文
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