我国地方税种收入能力测算方法及应用研究
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摘要
现代税收收入能力研究从二十世纪七十年代起，经过三十多年已发展成为一个以税收经济学为基础，数学模型为基本研究内容，计算机为基本手段的应用学科新分支。目前，国内和国外在税收收入能力研究上还存在较大差距。1994年税制改革以来，我国政府部门逐步加强经济统计方面的工作。目前税收收入能力测算在我国已具备理论和数据基础。本文对税收收入能力研究主要包括以下几个方面的内容：税收收入能力研究模型选择和地方税种税收收入能力测算，税制变化对税收收入能力的影响，地下经济造成的税收收入能力流失规模测算。
首先，本文系统地介绍了国内外目前常用的税收收入能力测算方法，提出了我国税收收入能力测算的基本原则，分析现有税收入能力研究模型，根据我国税制特点建立分税种进行税收收入能力测算，建立分税种的税收因素法、代表性税制法和消耗系数法税收收入能力测算基本模型，并进一步根据税收收入能力测算的基本原则对三类模型进行了比较研究，讨论了税收收入能力测算的难点和各模型在实际应用中变量的选择方法，为后续研究提供技术准备。
其次，对地方税种税收收入能力进行实证研究。本文依据我国税收收入能力测算的原则，对地方税种分为流转税类、所得税类和其他税种类分别进行测算。在进行流转税税收能力估测时，对属于地方流转税的营业税9个税目按税目的重要性进行估测。估测时根据获取的数据类型，建立具体估测模型，选择变量，通过标准化税基和税率，计算其税收收入能力。在对企业所得税税收收入能力进行估测时，建立税收因素法估测模型，阐述了估测思路和步骤，根据数据的特点确定因素的选择，并简化测算模型。最后用样本数据进行回归分析，测算不同产业和不同地区企业所得税税收收入能力和税收努力程度。在对个人所得税收入能力进行测算时，选择收入结构中重要的税目工资薪金所得、利息所得和个体承包承租经营所得进行估测。建立城镇居民收入分配模型，并在此基础上计算工资薪金所得的税收收入并标准化税率。然后根据标准化税率和标准税基测算工资薪金所得税收收入能力。根据年居民储蓄存款余额和平均年利率计算利息所得税收收入能力。根据承包承租经营收入总量，按平均征收率计算税收收入能力。在对其他税种收入能力进行估测时，对股票交易、营业账簿和购销合同印花税、房产税和城市房地产税、城镇土地使用税、车船使用税和车船使用牌照税(2007年统一为车船税)、契税、资源税等税种分别建立估测模型，通过标准化税基和税率计算各税种的税收收入能力。这些都为完善税收收入能力测算体系打下一定基础。
第三，分析税制变动对税收收入能力影响。通过分析税收对企业经营者和消费者消费行为的收入和替代效应，详细研究税制结构发生变化时，由于企业经营者和消费者效应发生变化对税收收入能力造成的影响。为印证前文分析的结论，本文通过联立分布滞后的回归模型进行实证分析，研究我国银行业在税制变动情况下由于企业经营行为的变化而产生的对企业经营成果和税收收入能力的影响。
第四，地下经济对税收收入能力测算的影响。本文详细介绍了我国地下经济及其造成税收收入流失情况，针对国内外对地下经济流失规模测算中常用研究模型现金比率法在我国应用中存在的不足进行修正。结合我国城乡居民储蓄存款的习惯和居民对金融业务的应用，针对近年来我国银行信用卡业务成为地下经济资金结算的新情况，利用信用卡的消费替代作用对现金比率法进行调整修正，并对我国地下经济的规模进行计量分析，并进一步测算其造成税收流失以及对税收收入能力的影响大小，计算了地下经济中的税收收入能力。通过上述研究，补上了税收收入能力测算中地下经济对其影响的这一缺失环节。
最后，本文对地方税种税收收入能力的测算方法以及测算结果进行了归纳和总结，为进一步完善税收收入能力研究体系，扩展税收收入能力研究范围提出了建议，并指出将来的研究发展方向。
基于作者工作的局限性，所研究的内容在我国还属于较新的领域，研究深度和广度还有待进一步扩展，作者寄希望后续的研究和其余同仁对其进行扩展。
Modern researches on taxable capacity have become a branch of applied economics after more than 30 years, which came up in the 1970s,whose main content based on tax economics,used computer to build mathematic model. But in China,the researches on taxable capacity were very poor. There was a large gap between home and abroad. Since the 1994 tax reform, the government of China has strengthen economic statistics.
Now, it is becoming possible to do in-depth study. We have been carring on researches on taxable capacity for Chinese tax system reform and have got some conclusions. This dissertation would put the emphasis on where aspects contens: improving the research system on taxable capacity, the relations between tax reform and taxable ability, and the scale how the underground economy reduced taxable capacity.
First of all, the dissertation gave an overview of the literature concerning the taxable capacity models, such as tax factors models, RTS and consumption coefficient model. We could chosen the taxable capacity model according to tax categories, data types. All the works made preparations for the following chapters.
Second,did the empirical study on the taxable capacity of the local taxes. According to the way how to choose the estimation model,we divided the local taxes into turnover tax class, income tax class and other tax class,and estimated their taxable capacity. As one kind of turnover taxes, business tax took an important position in tax revenue structure. When estimated the nine tax items taxable capacity of business tax,we builded the different kinds of estimated models, standardizated tax basis and tax rate because of the data which we got. When estimated company income tax, we built linear regression model ,lighted the ideas and the steps. And then simplified the model according to the characteristics of data. Finally, finished regression analysis, calculated company income taxable capacity and tax efforts of different regions. When estimated individual income tax,we choiced income from wages and salaries, business income and interest income items. And then, built income distribution model for urban households, calculated the tax revenue and standardizated tax rate,then estimated income taxable capacity from wages and salaries, calculated interest income taxable capacity by savings deposit at year-end and average interest rate, and estimated business income taxable capacity by the average rate of levy. When estimated other taxes,bulit the different kinds of models appling to tax on real estates ,stamp tax,tax on the use of urban land,tax on the use of vehicles and ships,resources tax and contract tax.
Third, analysised how the changes in the tax system affected the taxable capacity. Did researches on how the tax income and alternative effect on business and consumers,we came to the conclusion that taxable capacity increased or decreased with the effects when the tax system changes. Then the dissertation carried out an analysis about the difference between sales tax and income tax ,and did the empirical study on the tax structure of the bank industry. Along with the accelerating process of the banks opening up to international, the tax system is effecting on the making profit ability and taxable capacity of the commercial banks in china. The sales tax in bank industry remarked distortion function to bank achievements. It effected on taxable capacity in bank industry.
Fourth, did reasearches on the relations between underground economy and taxable capacity. This dissertation introduced underground economy and the loss of tax revenue. Cash ratio model is a common method for the scholars at home and abroad. But we should improve cash ratio model to face to the new challenges along with the the high-speed development of China conomic, when credit card was used to pay for the bills more and more commonly. This article developed the cash ratio model and measured the scale of tax evasion and the loss of taxable capacity in underground economy in China. This made up to taxable capacity research.es.
Finally,the dissertation draw a conclusion on the usefulness on taxable capacity of local taxes,then presented the developing areas in making up the taxable capacity system and expanding the application.
首先，本文系统地介绍了国内外目前常用的税收收入能力测算方法，提出了我国税收收入能力测算的基本原则，分析现有税收入能力研究模型，根据我国税制特点建立分税种进行税收收入能力测算，建立分税种的税收因素法、代表性税制法和消耗系数法税收收入能力测算基本模型，并进一步根据税收收入能力测算的基本原则对三类模型进行了比较研究，讨论了税收收入能力测算的难点和各模型在实际应用中变量的选择方法，为后续研究提供技术准备。
其次，对地方税种税收收入能力进行实证研究。本文依据我国税收收入能力测算的原则，对地方税种分为流转税类、所得税类和其他税种类分别进行测算。在进行流转税税收能力估测时，对属于地方流转税的营业税9个税目按税目的重要性进行估测。估测时根据获取的数据类型，建立具体估测模型，选择变量，通过标准化税基和税率，计算其税收收入能力。在对企业所得税税收收入能力进行估测时，建立税收因素法估测模型，阐述了估测思路和步骤，根据数据的特点确定因素的选择，并简化测算模型。最后用样本数据进行回归分析，测算不同产业和不同地区企业所得税税收收入能力和税收努力程度。在对个人所得税收入能力进行测算时，选择收入结构中重要的税目工资薪金所得、利息所得和个体承包承租经营所得进行估测。建立城镇居民收入分配模型，并在此基础上计算工资薪金所得的税收收入并标准化税率。然后根据标准化税率和标准税基测算工资薪金所得税收收入能力。根据年居民储蓄存款余额和平均年利率计算利息所得税收收入能力。根据承包承租经营收入总量，按平均征收率计算税收收入能力。在对其他税种收入能力进行估测时，对股票交易、营业账簿和购销合同印花税、房产税和城市房地产税、城镇土地使用税、车船使用税和车船使用牌照税(2007年统一为车船税)、契税、资源税等税种分别建立估测模型，通过标准化税基和税率计算各税种的税收收入能力。这些都为完善税收收入能力测算体系打下一定基础。
第三，分析税制变动对税收收入能力影响。通过分析税收对企业经营者和消费者消费行为的收入和替代效应，详细研究税制结构发生变化时，由于企业经营者和消费者效应发生变化对税收收入能力造成的影响。为印证前文分析的结论，本文通过联立分布滞后的回归模型进行实证分析，研究我国银行业在税制变动情况下由于企业经营行为的变化而产生的对企业经营成果和税收收入能力的影响。
第四，地下经济对税收收入能力测算的影响。本文详细介绍了我国地下经济及其造成税收收入流失情况，针对国内外对地下经济流失规模测算中常用研究模型现金比率法在我国应用中存在的不足进行修正。结合我国城乡居民储蓄存款的习惯和居民对金融业务的应用，针对近年来我国银行信用卡业务成为地下经济资金结算的新情况，利用信用卡的消费替代作用对现金比率法进行调整修正，并对我国地下经济的规模进行计量分析，并进一步测算其造成税收流失以及对税收收入能力的影响大小，计算了地下经济中的税收收入能力。通过上述研究，补上了税收收入能力测算中地下经济对其影响的这一缺失环节。
最后，本文对地方税种税收收入能力的测算方法以及测算结果进行了归纳和总结，为进一步完善税收收入能力研究体系，扩展税收收入能力研究范围提出了建议，并指出将来的研究发展方向。
基于作者工作的局限性，所研究的内容在我国还属于较新的领域，研究深度和广度还有待进一步扩展，作者寄希望后续的研究和其余同仁对其进行扩展。
Modern researches on taxable capacity have become a branch of applied economics after more than 30 years, which came up in the 1970s,whose main content based on tax economics,used computer to build mathematic model. But in China,the researches on taxable capacity were very poor. There was a large gap between home and abroad. Since the 1994 tax reform, the government of China has strengthen economic statistics.
Now, it is becoming possible to do in-depth study. We have been carring on researches on taxable capacity for Chinese tax system reform and have got some conclusions. This dissertation would put the emphasis on where aspects contens: improving the research system on taxable capacity, the relations between tax reform and taxable ability, and the scale how the underground economy reduced taxable capacity.
First of all, the dissertation gave an overview of the literature concerning the taxable capacity models, such as tax factors models, RTS and consumption coefficient model. We could chosen the taxable capacity model according to tax categories, data types. All the works made preparations for the following chapters.
Second,did the empirical study on the taxable capacity of the local taxes. According to the way how to choose the estimation model,we divided the local taxes into turnover tax class, income tax class and other tax class,and estimated their taxable capacity. As one kind of turnover taxes, business tax took an important position in tax revenue structure. When estimated the nine tax items taxable capacity of business tax,we builded the different kinds of estimated models, standardizated tax basis and tax rate because of the data which we got. When estimated company income tax, we built linear regression model ,lighted the ideas and the steps. And then simplified the model according to the characteristics of data. Finally, finished regression analysis, calculated company income taxable capacity and tax efforts of different regions. When estimated individual income tax,we choiced income from wages and salaries, business income and interest income items. And then, built income distribution model for urban households, calculated the tax revenue and standardizated tax rate,then estimated income taxable capacity from wages and salaries, calculated interest income taxable capacity by savings deposit at year-end and average interest rate, and estimated business income taxable capacity by the average rate of levy. When estimated other taxes,bulit the different kinds of models appling to tax on real estates ,stamp tax,tax on the use of urban land,tax on the use of vehicles and ships,resources tax and contract tax.
Third, analysised how the changes in the tax system affected the taxable capacity. Did researches on how the tax income and alternative effect on business and consumers,we came to the conclusion that taxable capacity increased or decreased with the effects when the tax system changes. Then the dissertation carried out an analysis about the difference between sales tax and income tax ,and did the empirical study on the tax structure of the bank industry. Along with the accelerating process of the banks opening up to international, the tax system is effecting on the making profit ability and taxable capacity of the commercial banks in china. The sales tax in bank industry remarked distortion function to bank achievements. It effected on taxable capacity in bank industry.
Fourth, did reasearches on the relations between underground economy and taxable capacity. This dissertation introduced underground economy and the loss of tax revenue. Cash ratio model is a common method for the scholars at home and abroad. But we should improve cash ratio model to face to the new challenges along with the the high-speed development of China conomic, when credit card was used to pay for the bills more and more commonly. This article developed the cash ratio model and measured the scale of tax evasion and the loss of taxable capacity in underground economy in China. This made up to taxable capacity research.es.
Finally,the dissertation draw a conclusion on the usefulness on taxable capacity of local taxes,then presented the developing areas in making up the taxable capacity system and expanding the application.
引文
1可以参见中国税务网2008年1月11日的国家税务总局新闻公报，主页．http://www.chinatax.gov.cn/。
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