贸易开放、链接溢出与中国经济增长
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摘要
经济全球化、区域经济一体化是当今世界发展的大趋势,对外开放是一国经济发展的重要前提。改革开放的30年来,我国经济实现了快速发展,在经济发展过程中呈现出了一些显著特点引起了学术界的广泛关注:一是对外贸易、外商直接投资发展迅速;二是贸易开放对我国经济发展的影响作用日益显著;三是技术进步已经成为影响一国经济长期增长的关键因素。党的十七大报告明确指出,要“拓展对外开放广度和深度,提高开放型经济水平”。基于此,本文就贸易开放与我国经济增长的关系及贸易开放通过链接溢出促进我国经济增长的机制展开研究。
首先,对贸易开放的度量(即贸易开放度)及贸易开放度与经济增长关系的国内外研究进展进行了梳理和整合,指出了各类贸易开放度代理指标存在的弊端,以及贸易开放度与经济增长的关系在理论上有较为一致的观点,而实证研究结论不一致的原因。尽管用外贸依存度来度量贸易开放度存在较大的争议,但本文的研究表明外贸依存度仍是度量我国贸易开放度的较好指标;改革开放以来,我国经济增长主要依赖于要素投入,而贸易开放通过提高要素使用效率推动了我国的经济增长。因此,促进人力资本积累、贸易开放和技术进步在我国经济增长中的作用,是今后我国经济保持长期增长的关键。
其次,由于要素投入(尤其是资本的投入)是我国经济增长的主要驱动力,而政府支出(尤其是近几年)是我国资本投入的主要来源之一,因此本文将政府支出细分为7类,检验了贸易开放度与我国经济政府支出的关系,指出贸易开放度与我国政府支出之间的关系随着政府支出功能性质的不同而改变,目前我国政府支出仍主要集中于经济发展阶段那些有利于扩大消费的建设项目以及政府作为公共服务的提供者所支付的工资和其它投入上,而对教育、社会保障、社会福利等方面的支出相对不足,这在一定程度上弱化了政府宏观调控的职能和力度,同时也不利于在开放条件下经济的可持续发展。
第三,进一步分析了贸易开放(进出口贸易)通过链接溢出促进我国技术进步,提升我国区域技术创新能力,进而促进我国经济增长的机制。利用我国17个制造业行业及其与16个OECD国家的进出口贸易Panel数据以及1997年和2002年的投入产出表,分析了我国进出口贸易企业的前向和后向链接溢出效应,研究表明:我国出口贸易企业通过向上游产业的非出口贸易企业购买中间产品和服务产生了积极的后向链接溢出效应,进口贸易企业通过向下游产业的非进口贸易企业出售中间产品和服务产生了积极的前向链接溢出效应,而进出口贸易企业的水平链接溢出表现均不明显。由于我国与美国、日本、韩国及其它OECD国家进出口商品结构的差异,使得我国与这些国家或经济体发生贸易往来的企业的链接溢出效应存在较明显的差异。
通过构建研发活动的投入产出函数,实证检验了进出口贸易对我国地区技术创新能力的影响效应,研究发现:进出口贸易对我国地区技术创新产生了积极的影响作用,进出口贸易已成为提升地区创新能力的一个重要因素。由于我国地区进出口贸易发展不平衡,使得进出口贸易对我国地区技术创新的影响呈现出东部较强,中部次之,而西部较弱的格局。由于地区经济发展的不平衡,使得三个地区的研发能力呈现出了不均衡特征,而各地区研发投入结构的差异,造成了研发投入对地区技术创新的影响效应存在差异性;同时,由于我国地区的研发投入和科研人员没能有效的结合,而使得我国地区R&D投入没有得到充分和有效的利用。
Economic globalization and regional economic integration are the trend of world development nowadays. Then opening up is an important prerequisite for a country’s economic development. During 30 years’reform and opening up, our economy has achieved a rapid development. Some outstanding features which appear in economic development have drawn extensive attention in the academic community. First, foreign trade and foreign direct investments develop rapidly; second, trade openness has a more obvious effect on China’s economic development; third, technical progress has become a key factor in a country’s economic growth in the long term. The report of the 17th conference of the Party explicitly pointed out that“we need to expand the width and depth of opening up and improve the level of an open economy”. Based on this, this paper is going to do a research on the relationship between trade openness and our country’s economic growth and the mechanism that trade openness promotes our country’s economic growth through linkage spillovers.
Firstly, a codification and integration has been made about the studies of measurement of trade openness and the relationship between trade openness and economic growth home and abroad. There are common defects existing in kinds of indicators about trade openness. As regards to the relationship between the trade openness and economic growth in theory, many scholars share similar opinion. However, they differ in conclusions made through empirical studies. Although using the ratio of dependence on foreign trade to measure trade openness gives rise to great controversy, the research made in this article suggests that the ratio of dependence on foreign trade is still a preferable indicator to measure the degree of our country’s trade openness. Since reform and opening up, China's economic growth mainly depends on the factor inputs. Moreover, trade openness promotes China's economic growth by improving the factor productivity. Therefore, to strengthen the impact of human capital accumulation, trade openness and technology on our country's economic growth is the key to maintain the long-term economic growth in our economy henceforth.
Secondly, factor inputs (especially capital inputs) are the main driving force for China's economic growth, and government expenditure (especially in recent years) is one of the major sources for capital inputs in our country. So in this paper the government expenditure is specified into seven categories to examine the relationship between trade openness and our government expenditure and to point out that the relationship mentioned changes according to the different functions of the government expenditure. At present, our government expenditure is still focused on the construction projects which are conductive to expand consumption and wages paid to the public service provider and other inputs. While inputs to education, social security, social welfare and so on are relatively insufficient. It weakens the government's macro-control function and power to some extent. At the same time it is not beneficial to the sustainable development of economy under open circumstance.
Thirdly, this paper further analyzes that the trade openness (import and export trade) promotes our country’s technological improvement, enhances our country’s regional technological innovation ability and then promotes China’s economic growth mechanisms through linkage spillovers. Using the Panel data of 17 manufacturing industries in China and their imports and exports to 16 OECD countries and 1997’s and 2002’s input-output tables, this article investigates the forward and backward linkage spillovers in our import and export trade companies. The study shows that China's export trade enterprises bring out positive backward linkage spillovers by purchasing semi finished products and services from the non-export trade enterprises of the upper industries. And import trade enterprises bring out positive forward linkage spillovers by purchasing semi finished products and services from the non-export trade enterprises of the downstream industries. While in import and export trade enterprises, the horizontal linkage spillovers are not obvious. Because of the differences in the structures of import and export among our country and the United States, Japan, Korea and other OECD country, there are apparent differences in linkage spillovers among our country and the enterprises in theses counties or economies.
By constructing the input-output function in R & D activities and empirical examining the effect that the import and export trade brings to China's regional technological innovation ability, the study proves that: import and export trade has a positive impact on our country’s regional technological innovation; import and export trade has become an important factor to raise regional innovation ability. Due to the imbalance development of import and export trade in different regions of our country, the impact of import and export trade on our country’s regional technological innovation is strongest in the east regions, central regions less, western areas least. Imbalance in regional economic development leads to non-equilibrium in theirs’ research and development abilities. Different R&D input structures in various regions give birth to different effects of R&D input to the technological innovation in those regions. At the same time, for the reason that China's R & D inputs and researchers fail to combine effectively; our country's regional R & D investment has not been fully and effectively utilized.
首先,对贸易开放的度量(即贸易开放度)及贸易开放度与经济增长关系的国内外研究进展进行了梳理和整合,指出了各类贸易开放度代理指标存在的弊端,以及贸易开放度与经济增长的关系在理论上有较为一致的观点,而实证研究结论不一致的原因。尽管用外贸依存度来度量贸易开放度存在较大的争议,但本文的研究表明外贸依存度仍是度量我国贸易开放度的较好指标;改革开放以来,我国经济增长主要依赖于要素投入,而贸易开放通过提高要素使用效率推动了我国的经济增长。因此,促进人力资本积累、贸易开放和技术进步在我国经济增长中的作用,是今后我国经济保持长期增长的关键。
其次,由于要素投入(尤其是资本的投入)是我国经济增长的主要驱动力,而政府支出(尤其是近几年)是我国资本投入的主要来源之一,因此本文将政府支出细分为7类,检验了贸易开放度与我国经济政府支出的关系,指出贸易开放度与我国政府支出之间的关系随着政府支出功能性质的不同而改变,目前我国政府支出仍主要集中于经济发展阶段那些有利于扩大消费的建设项目以及政府作为公共服务的提供者所支付的工资和其它投入上,而对教育、社会保障、社会福利等方面的支出相对不足,这在一定程度上弱化了政府宏观调控的职能和力度,同时也不利于在开放条件下经济的可持续发展。
第三,进一步分析了贸易开放(进出口贸易)通过链接溢出促进我国技术进步,提升我国区域技术创新能力,进而促进我国经济增长的机制。利用我国17个制造业行业及其与16个OECD国家的进出口贸易Panel数据以及1997年和2002年的投入产出表,分析了我国进出口贸易企业的前向和后向链接溢出效应,研究表明:我国出口贸易企业通过向上游产业的非出口贸易企业购买中间产品和服务产生了积极的后向链接溢出效应,进口贸易企业通过向下游产业的非进口贸易企业出售中间产品和服务产生了积极的前向链接溢出效应,而进出口贸易企业的水平链接溢出表现均不明显。由于我国与美国、日本、韩国及其它OECD国家进出口商品结构的差异,使得我国与这些国家或经济体发生贸易往来的企业的链接溢出效应存在较明显的差异。
通过构建研发活动的投入产出函数,实证检验了进出口贸易对我国地区技术创新能力的影响效应,研究发现:进出口贸易对我国地区技术创新产生了积极的影响作用,进出口贸易已成为提升地区创新能力的一个重要因素。由于我国地区进出口贸易发展不平衡,使得进出口贸易对我国地区技术创新的影响呈现出东部较强,中部次之,而西部较弱的格局。由于地区经济发展的不平衡,使得三个地区的研发能力呈现出了不均衡特征,而各地区研发投入结构的差异,造成了研发投入对地区技术创新的影响效应存在差异性;同时,由于我国地区的研发投入和科研人员没能有效的结合,而使得我国地区R&D投入没有得到充分和有效的利用。
Economic globalization and regional economic integration are the trend of world development nowadays. Then opening up is an important prerequisite for a country’s economic development. During 30 years’reform and opening up, our economy has achieved a rapid development. Some outstanding features which appear in economic development have drawn extensive attention in the academic community. First, foreign trade and foreign direct investments develop rapidly; second, trade openness has a more obvious effect on China’s economic development; third, technical progress has become a key factor in a country’s economic growth in the long term. The report of the 17th conference of the Party explicitly pointed out that“we need to expand the width and depth of opening up and improve the level of an open economy”. Based on this, this paper is going to do a research on the relationship between trade openness and our country’s economic growth and the mechanism that trade openness promotes our country’s economic growth through linkage spillovers.
Firstly, a codification and integration has been made about the studies of measurement of trade openness and the relationship between trade openness and economic growth home and abroad. There are common defects existing in kinds of indicators about trade openness. As regards to the relationship between the trade openness and economic growth in theory, many scholars share similar opinion. However, they differ in conclusions made through empirical studies. Although using the ratio of dependence on foreign trade to measure trade openness gives rise to great controversy, the research made in this article suggests that the ratio of dependence on foreign trade is still a preferable indicator to measure the degree of our country’s trade openness. Since reform and opening up, China's economic growth mainly depends on the factor inputs. Moreover, trade openness promotes China's economic growth by improving the factor productivity. Therefore, to strengthen the impact of human capital accumulation, trade openness and technology on our country's economic growth is the key to maintain the long-term economic growth in our economy henceforth.
Secondly, factor inputs (especially capital inputs) are the main driving force for China's economic growth, and government expenditure (especially in recent years) is one of the major sources for capital inputs in our country. So in this paper the government expenditure is specified into seven categories to examine the relationship between trade openness and our government expenditure and to point out that the relationship mentioned changes according to the different functions of the government expenditure. At present, our government expenditure is still focused on the construction projects which are conductive to expand consumption and wages paid to the public service provider and other inputs. While inputs to education, social security, social welfare and so on are relatively insufficient. It weakens the government's macro-control function and power to some extent. At the same time it is not beneficial to the sustainable development of economy under open circumstance.
Thirdly, this paper further analyzes that the trade openness (import and export trade) promotes our country’s technological improvement, enhances our country’s regional technological innovation ability and then promotes China’s economic growth mechanisms through linkage spillovers. Using the Panel data of 17 manufacturing industries in China and their imports and exports to 16 OECD countries and 1997’s and 2002’s input-output tables, this article investigates the forward and backward linkage spillovers in our import and export trade companies. The study shows that China's export trade enterprises bring out positive backward linkage spillovers by purchasing semi finished products and services from the non-export trade enterprises of the upper industries. And import trade enterprises bring out positive forward linkage spillovers by purchasing semi finished products and services from the non-export trade enterprises of the downstream industries. While in import and export trade enterprises, the horizontal linkage spillovers are not obvious. Because of the differences in the structures of import and export among our country and the United States, Japan, Korea and other OECD country, there are apparent differences in linkage spillovers among our country and the enterprises in theses counties or economies.
By constructing the input-output function in R & D activities and empirical examining the effect that the import and export trade brings to China's regional technological innovation ability, the study proves that: import and export trade has a positive impact on our country’s regional technological innovation; import and export trade has become an important factor to raise regional innovation ability. Due to the imbalance development of import and export trade in different regions of our country, the impact of import and export trade on our country’s regional technological innovation is strongest in the east regions, central regions less, western areas least. Imbalance in regional economic development leads to non-equilibrium in theirs’ research and development abilities. Different R&D input structures in various regions give birth to different effects of R&D input to the technological innovation in those regions. At the same time, for the reason that China's R & D inputs and researchers fail to combine effectively; our country's regional R & D investment has not been fully and effectively utilized.
引文
①公元前8000年的农业开发;18、19世纪的工业革命;以新兴信息技术为基础的新技术革命。
①狭义政府消费的价值,等于广义政府消费减去政府对住户的实物社会转移。政府实物社会转移价值等于政府最终消费支出中对住户个人提供的卫生保健和文化教育等的支出。依照狭义政府消费的定义,政府最终消费支出中的保健和文化教育、社会保障和福利、体育和娱乐开支应作为个人服务支出处理,因为其服务的对象是住户的个人和学生,而非社会整体。引自罗乐勤:政府支出与狭义政府消费核算问题研究,《统计研究》,2005年第12期,P76。
①在Edwards( 1992)文中除了包含Leamer( 1988)的六个开放度指标外还包括Dollar(1991)价格扭曲指标、世界银行1987对外导向型指标的两个方面、De long &Summers(1991)的保护的效率指标、平均关税率、黑市交易费用及标准偏差、NTBs等8个其它的指标。
数据来源:《中国统计年鉴》、《中国商务年鉴》和《中国海关统计年鉴》各期。
①除Cameron(1978)以外,早期的研究,如Saunder & Klau(1985)也发现了在OECD国家中,贸易开放度和政府公共部门消费之间存在联系;
①此处贸易开放度为名义水平.
①采用时间序列分析:①可以捕捉变量随时间变化的信息;②正如Molana et al(2004)所提到的,不仅可以克服数据异质性问题,还可以克服截面数据时间纬度短缺的问题;③可以把变量之间的联系作为一个过程来考察。
②转引自李子奈,现代计量经济学与2003年诺贝尔经济学奖,《中国经济研究通讯》, 2004.4,总第171期;
③参考王少平,《宏观计量的若干前沿理论与应用》,南开大学出版社,2003.9, P87;
①在此处,基于本文的分析目的,我们略去了有关政府国防支出的讨论。有关何种经济变量会影响到国防支出的更多讨论可以参考Sandler & Hartley (1995)。
①Rodrik(1999)曾通过计算对外贸易条件变化的收入效应来衡量外部冲击,但是由于本文缺乏测度外部经济冲击的数据,因此,此处只能粗略的把政府支出占GDP的比重是否随着贸易开放度的增加而增加作为考察政府在应对外部冲击过程中是否发挥了积极而有效的作用的依据;
①其它作者对技术进步的处理方式也较为类似。如Lewi(s 1954)、Fei and Rani(s 1961)以及Jorgenson(1966)就已强调技术进步对经济发展的重要性,并且考虑了不同部门间技术进步率差异。然而这些研究都忽略了技术进步是如何产生的内在机理,即技术进步只是一个随时间稳定变化的外生变量。
②虽然我们将技术外溢主要定义为研发成果在各国间的扩散与转移,然而正如众多文献所指出的,广义的技术外溢并不仅仅指生产技术的外溢效应,还应包括管理经验的传播、营销网络的拓展、人力资源的培训等广义的外溢行为。Caves (1998)则给出了技术外溢的经济学定义,即技术外溢是“外资企业的边际社会收益高出自身边际收益的部分”。
①UNCTAD(2001)指出FDI的溢出包括水平链接(horizontal linkage)溢出和垂直链接(vertical linkage)溢出,其中水平链接溢出主要通过示范效应、竞争效应和人员流动效应等途径发生,一般发生在产业内或行业内;垂直链接溢出又包括后向链接(backward linkage)溢出和前向链接(forward linkage)溢出,主要指外商投资企业与国内企业之间通过供应链的关系而产生的外部效应,一般发生在产业间。
②FDI后向链接溢出的5条途径为:①FDI企业帮助预期的供给者建立生产设施,②FDI企业向当地供应商提供技术援助、信息支持以提高供应商产品的质量或对其进行设备改造,③对当地供应商在原材料和中间品采购方面提供技术和管理上的帮助,④为当地供应商在管理和组织上提供培训和帮助,⑤帮助当地供应商寻找新客户。
③Lin & Saggi (2003)指出FDI企业对当地企业通过后向链接的影响在两个方面可能出现矛盾,首先它能对中间产品创造需求(需求效应);然而由于当地企业与跨国FDI企业竞争可能措施当地企业减少产出,这样就会减少当地企业自己对中间产品的需求(竞争效应),如果竞争效应超过了需求效应,则会产生负面的外溢效应。
①16个主要OECD国家为美国、日本、韩国、德国、英国、法国、澳大利亚、加拿大、丹麦、芬兰、意大利、荷兰、挪威、西班牙、瑞典、比利时。
①有关Hausman统计量的构造可参考Wooldridge Jeffrey M. ,2001, Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data . Chapter 10. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
①16个主要OECD国家为美国、日本、韩国、德国、英国、法国、澳大利亚、加拿大、丹麦、芬兰、意大利、荷兰、挪威、西班牙、瑞典、比利时。
①有关Hausman统计量的构造可参考Wooldridge Jeffrey M. ,2001, Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data . Chapter 10. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
①有关Hausman统计量的构造可参考Jeffrey M. Wooldridge(2001), Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Chapter 10.
①OLS和Poisson与Negative Binomial模型的系数不具有可比性,而且他们具有极为不同的含义。详细介绍请参阅:J.M伍德里奇.计量经济学导论-现代观点,中国人民大学出版社,2003,pp,528-529.
①东部地区,包括京、津、沪、辽、鲁、苏、浙、闽、粤九个省(市),中部地区,包括冀、晋、内蒙古、吉、黑、皖、赣、豫、湘、鄂十个省(区),西部地区,包括桂、云、贵、川、陕、甘、宁、青、新九个省(区)。本文不包括港澳台地区,河北省在本文中被归入中部地区主要是考虑它的经济发展水平自1952年以来始终更接近中部地区,并且在经济结构和经济活力等许多重要方面也与东部地区有明显差距。
①由于在本文第四部分的第2节的估计过程中发现,在此数据集中poisson模型估计通过迭代并不总能得到稳定的结果,因此在本节中没有采用Poisson及负二项分布估计。
①由于Poisson分布对于数据的要求十分苛刻,既使负二项式分布扩展了其原假设:E(y)= Variance(y),但是负二项分布对于超离散(over-dispersion)的计数数据(count data)能否建立一个合适的模型也是很值得怀疑的(Jie Q.Guo & Pravin K.Trivedi,2002),本文对此作了一个大胆的尝试。
②有关Hausman统计量的构造可参考Jeffrey M. Wooldridge: Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Chapter 10.在下文的估计中,我们也给出了LM统计量,目的是能更好的检验采用FE还是RE更合适;
③LM统计量在本文中主要用于检验模型的随机效应,参见Greene(4),chapter14, pp572;
④当然,目前有一些学者利用专利授权数作为技术创新的指标。但是笔者认为,即使专利申请受理后没有被授权,该项活动仍是广大参与人员辛苦努力的结果,仍可算作技术创新活动;
①东部地区,包括京、津、沪、辽、鲁、苏、浙、闽、粤九个省(市),中部地区,包括冀、晋、内蒙古、吉、黑、皖、赣、豫、湘、鄂十个省(区),西部地区,包括桂、云、贵、川、陕、甘、宁、青、新九个省(区)。本研究不包括港澳台地区,河北省在本研究中被归入中部地区主要是考虑它的经济发展水平自1952年以来始终更接近中部地区,并且在经济结构和经济活力等许多重要方面也与东部地区有明显差距。
①由于在3.2.1的估计过程中发现,在此数据集中poisson模型估计通过迭代并不总能得到稳定的结果,因此在3.2.2中没有采用Poisson及负二项分布估计;
①新增长理论也高度强调了发展中国家从发展国际贸易中所获得的技术溢出效应对本国技术创新的重要作用;
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①狭义政府消费的价值,等于广义政府消费减去政府对住户的实物社会转移。政府实物社会转移价值等于政府最终消费支出中对住户个人提供的卫生保健和文化教育等的支出。依照狭义政府消费的定义,政府最终消费支出中的保健和文化教育、社会保障和福利、体育和娱乐开支应作为个人服务支出处理,因为其服务的对象是住户的个人和学生,而非社会整体。引自罗乐勤:政府支出与狭义政府消费核算问题研究,《统计研究》,2005年第12期,P76。
①在Edwards( 1992)文中除了包含Leamer( 1988)的六个开放度指标外还包括Dollar(1991)价格扭曲指标、世界银行1987对外导向型指标的两个方面、De long &Summers(1991)的保护的效率指标、平均关税率、黑市交易费用及标准偏差、NTBs等8个其它的指标。
数据来源:《中国统计年鉴》、《中国商务年鉴》和《中国海关统计年鉴》各期。
①除Cameron(1978)以外,早期的研究,如Saunder & Klau(1985)也发现了在OECD国家中,贸易开放度和政府公共部门消费之间存在联系;
①此处贸易开放度为名义水平.
①采用时间序列分析:①可以捕捉变量随时间变化的信息;②正如Molana et al(2004)所提到的,不仅可以克服数据异质性问题,还可以克服截面数据时间纬度短缺的问题;③可以把变量之间的联系作为一个过程来考察。
②转引自李子奈,现代计量经济学与2003年诺贝尔经济学奖,《中国经济研究通讯》, 2004.4,总第171期;
③参考王少平,《宏观计量的若干前沿理论与应用》,南开大学出版社,2003.9, P87;
①在此处,基于本文的分析目的,我们略去了有关政府国防支出的讨论。有关何种经济变量会影响到国防支出的更多讨论可以参考Sandler & Hartley (1995)。
①Rodrik(1999)曾通过计算对外贸易条件变化的收入效应来衡量外部冲击,但是由于本文缺乏测度外部经济冲击的数据,因此,此处只能粗略的把政府支出占GDP的比重是否随着贸易开放度的增加而增加作为考察政府在应对外部冲击过程中是否发挥了积极而有效的作用的依据;
①其它作者对技术进步的处理方式也较为类似。如Lewi(s 1954)、Fei and Rani(s 1961)以及Jorgenson(1966)就已强调技术进步对经济发展的重要性,并且考虑了不同部门间技术进步率差异。然而这些研究都忽略了技术进步是如何产生的内在机理,即技术进步只是一个随时间稳定变化的外生变量。
②虽然我们将技术外溢主要定义为研发成果在各国间的扩散与转移,然而正如众多文献所指出的,广义的技术外溢并不仅仅指生产技术的外溢效应,还应包括管理经验的传播、营销网络的拓展、人力资源的培训等广义的外溢行为。Caves (1998)则给出了技术外溢的经济学定义,即技术外溢是“外资企业的边际社会收益高出自身边际收益的部分”。
①UNCTAD(2001)指出FDI的溢出包括水平链接(horizontal linkage)溢出和垂直链接(vertical linkage)溢出,其中水平链接溢出主要通过示范效应、竞争效应和人员流动效应等途径发生,一般发生在产业内或行业内;垂直链接溢出又包括后向链接(backward linkage)溢出和前向链接(forward linkage)溢出,主要指外商投资企业与国内企业之间通过供应链的关系而产生的外部效应,一般发生在产业间。
②FDI后向链接溢出的5条途径为:①FDI企业帮助预期的供给者建立生产设施,②FDI企业向当地供应商提供技术援助、信息支持以提高供应商产品的质量或对其进行设备改造,③对当地供应商在原材料和中间品采购方面提供技术和管理上的帮助,④为当地供应商在管理和组织上提供培训和帮助,⑤帮助当地供应商寻找新客户。
③Lin & Saggi (2003)指出FDI企业对当地企业通过后向链接的影响在两个方面可能出现矛盾,首先它能对中间产品创造需求(需求效应);然而由于当地企业与跨国FDI企业竞争可能措施当地企业减少产出,这样就会减少当地企业自己对中间产品的需求(竞争效应),如果竞争效应超过了需求效应,则会产生负面的外溢效应。
①16个主要OECD国家为美国、日本、韩国、德国、英国、法国、澳大利亚、加拿大、丹麦、芬兰、意大利、荷兰、挪威、西班牙、瑞典、比利时。
①有关Hausman统计量的构造可参考Wooldridge Jeffrey M. ,2001, Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data . Chapter 10. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
①16个主要OECD国家为美国、日本、韩国、德国、英国、法国、澳大利亚、加拿大、丹麦、芬兰、意大利、荷兰、挪威、西班牙、瑞典、比利时。
①有关Hausman统计量的构造可参考Wooldridge Jeffrey M. ,2001, Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data . Chapter 10. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
①有关Hausman统计量的构造可参考Jeffrey M. Wooldridge(2001), Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Chapter 10.
①OLS和Poisson与Negative Binomial模型的系数不具有可比性,而且他们具有极为不同的含义。详细介绍请参阅:J.M伍德里奇.计量经济学导论-现代观点,中国人民大学出版社,2003,pp,528-529.
①东部地区,包括京、津、沪、辽、鲁、苏、浙、闽、粤九个省(市),中部地区,包括冀、晋、内蒙古、吉、黑、皖、赣、豫、湘、鄂十个省(区),西部地区,包括桂、云、贵、川、陕、甘、宁、青、新九个省(区)。本文不包括港澳台地区,河北省在本文中被归入中部地区主要是考虑它的经济发展水平自1952年以来始终更接近中部地区,并且在经济结构和经济活力等许多重要方面也与东部地区有明显差距。
①由于在本文第四部分的第2节的估计过程中发现,在此数据集中poisson模型估计通过迭代并不总能得到稳定的结果,因此在本节中没有采用Poisson及负二项分布估计。
①由于Poisson分布对于数据的要求十分苛刻,既使负二项式分布扩展了其原假设:E(y)= Variance(y),但是负二项分布对于超离散(over-dispersion)的计数数据(count data)能否建立一个合适的模型也是很值得怀疑的(Jie Q.Guo & Pravin K.Trivedi,2002),本文对此作了一个大胆的尝试。
②有关Hausman统计量的构造可参考Jeffrey M. Wooldridge: Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Chapter 10.在下文的估计中,我们也给出了LM统计量,目的是能更好的检验采用FE还是RE更合适;
③LM统计量在本文中主要用于检验模型的随机效应,参见Greene(4),chapter14, pp572;
④当然,目前有一些学者利用专利授权数作为技术创新的指标。但是笔者认为,即使专利申请受理后没有被授权,该项活动仍是广大参与人员辛苦努力的结果,仍可算作技术创新活动;
①东部地区,包括京、津、沪、辽、鲁、苏、浙、闽、粤九个省(市),中部地区,包括冀、晋、内蒙古、吉、黑、皖、赣、豫、湘、鄂十个省(区),西部地区,包括桂、云、贵、川、陕、甘、宁、青、新九个省(区)。本研究不包括港澳台地区,河北省在本研究中被归入中部地区主要是考虑它的经济发展水平自1952年以来始终更接近中部地区,并且在经济结构和经济活力等许多重要方面也与东部地区有明显差距。
①由于在3.2.1的估计过程中发现,在此数据集中poisson模型估计通过迭代并不总能得到稳定的结果,因此在3.2.2中没有采用Poisson及负二项分布估计;
①新增长理论也高度强调了发展中国家从发展国际贸易中所获得的技术溢出效应对本国技术创新的重要作用;
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