外资并购与我国产业安全研究
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摘要
随着经济全球化的不断发展,20世纪90年代中期以来,全球第五次并购浪潮在发达国家掀起,并逐步波及到发展中国家。在第五次并购浪潮中,跨国并购数量和比重急剧增加,并成为了当今世界对外直接投资的主要方式。跨国并购浪潮的国际经验表明,外国投资者并购东道国企业(即外资并购)对东道国的影响具有两面性:一方面给东道国带来经济增长、资金引进、技术进步和税收增加等有利方面,另一方面对各国民族产业的生存和发展造成了显著影响。因此外资并购成为影响各国产业安全状况的重要因素之一。
改革开放以来,我国利用外商直接投资的方式一直以绿地投资为主,并连续多年保持了吸收外资数量世界前茅和发展中国家最多的地位,外资并购的比例一直很低。而在我国2001年加入WTO之后,在外资并购制度不断完善和经济高速增长的背景下,跨国公司和国外私募股权基金等国外投资者在华并购数量急剧增加,大量并购我国汽车、大豆、日化、食品饮料、装备制造、医药、流通和金融业等产业的龙头骨干企业和知名品牌,甚至在某些行业出现了全行业通吃的局面。鉴于以上情况,社会各界对外资并购是否威胁我国产业安全的讨论十分激烈,如何认识外资并购对我国产业安全的影响,成为理论界和政府有关部门关注的重要问题。
在以上背景下,本文以马克思辩证唯物主义为指导,坚持理论与实践相结合,采用规范研究与实证研究相结合、整体分析与个案分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合的研究方法,运用产业安全理论、产业组织理论、外资并购理论、产业竞争力理论等现代经济学理论,借助统计学、博弈论等经济学研究工具,在借鉴国际经验的基础上,就外资并购对我国产业安全的影响进行了全面分析,得出了具有一定理论意义和现实意义的结论。本文的研究内容和研究结论主要包含在以下7章之中。
第1章导论,阐述了论文的研究背景和研究意义,并介绍了论文的研究思路、研究方法、主要创新点和不足之处。
第2章外资并购与产业安全相关理论,对外资并购相关理论、产业安全相关理论进行回顾总结,并就外资并购对东道国产业安全的影响进行理论分析:提出了外资并购影响东道国产业安全的作用过程、评价方法和评价指标,为研究外资并购对我国产业安全的影响奠定了坚实的理论基础。
第3章外资并购对我国产业控制力的影响分析,在回顾我国外资并购发展状况的基础上,统计并分析了外资并购后的股权控制率、品牌控制率、技术控制率、市场控制率、重要企业控制情况以及我国跨国并购交叉指标情况。通过上述统计分析得出的结论是,在已经开放的产业中,外资并购严重削弱了这些产业的控制力;同时由于我国产业政策限制,外资并购对我国大多数战略性产业的产业控制力没有造成损害;外资并购能够显著削弱我国产业控制力的机理是,在我国民族产业国际竞争力不强的情况下,民族企业通过出让一定控制权来提高企业竞争力。最后,以我国大豆压榨业为案例,具体剖析了外资并购对产业控制力的威胁及其对国家经济安全的危害。
第4章外资并购对我国产业竞争力的影响分析,首先采用波特-邓宁钻石模型就外资并购对我国产业竞争力影响进行了一般性分析,分析结果表明,外资并购对我国民族产业竞争力要素既有促进作用也有损害作用;外资并购对民族企业的控股程度和垄断程度越高,民族产业竞争力要素损失越大;在外资非控股、非垄断的情况下,往往能够提升民族产业竞争力。其次运用因子分析法就外资并购对我国上市公司竞争力的影响进行了实证研究,得出有一定参考价值的结论:外资并购能否提高我国上市公司竞争力,与外资企业自身实力、外资获得股权比例、外资是否取得第一大股东地位这些因素呈正向关系,即有实力的外资在取得控股地位情况下才能显著改善上市公司竞争力;同时从长期趋势看,有实力的外资参股上市公司也能够显著提高上市公司竞争力。因此该研究的政策含义是:民族企业在保持控股地位的同时,积极吸引有实力的外资企业参股,并给予其相对多的股权,能够提高民族企业竞争力。最后,对我国汽车产业进行典型案例分析并得出结论:在我国汽车产业适当允许外资并购的情况下,外资并购通过技术转移和技术溢出,显著提高了我国汽车产业竞争力。
第5章外资并购对我国产业安全的影响评价及国际比较,在分析外资并购对产业控制力和产业竞争力影响的基础上,根据无差异曲线理论,就外资并购对我国产业安全影响进行了现状评价,结论是,外资并购对若干行业产业安全的影响效应不同,使大豆压榨业等产业安全状况明显下降,使汽车产业等产业安全状况有所提高。其次,运用一般化的双钻石模型对外资并购对我国产业安全趋势进行分析,结论是,由于经济全球化给我国带来“两种市场、两种资源”,我国民族企业对外资并购依赖性下降,我国产业安全状况呈现进一步改善的趋势。最后,就外资并购对东道国产业安全影响进行国际比较,总的看,发生在欧美国家的跨国并购浪潮具有交叉性,这有利于欧美国家保持产业控制力和提高产业国际竞争力;在经济发展中,日本严格控制外资并购,注意运用产业政策发展民族产业,取得良好产业安全效果,而拉美、东欧地区国家由于过度鼓励外资并购,这些国家产业安全和经济安全遭受严重损害。通过国际比较,认为外资并购对我国产业安全影响处于基本适度状态。
第6章完善外资并购政策维护我国产业安全的建议,在全面总结美国、日本、加拿大和欧盟各国等发达国家控制外资并购维护产业安全政策经验的基础上,提出加入WTO条件下控制外资并购维护我国产业安全的一般思路,并提出从构建完善的反垄断体系、国家安全体系、产业政策体系、现代资本市场体系等方面加强外资并购控制,以维护我国产业安全。
第7章研究结论和展望,全面总结本文主要结论,对如何进一步深入研究外资并购对我国产业安全的影响提出展望。
本文主要研究结论是:第一,在自由放任的外资并购政策下,外资并购将使我国产业控制力和产业竞争力遭到严重削弱,进而使产业安全水平严重下降;第二,在适当控制外资并购的情况下,外资并购能够提高我国民族产业竞争力,适当鼓励外资并购将有利于促进我国产业安全;第三,从趋势上看,经济全球化对提高民族产业的产业安全水平发挥作用,外资并购对我国产业安全的威胁将进一步降低;第四,需要进一步完善外资并购政策以维护我国产业安全。
本研究创新点主要包括以下三个方面:
一是本文采用的外资并购对我国产业安全影响的评价方法具有创新性。在借鉴前人的研究成果的基础上,运用规范的经济学方法,将产业安全水平描述为产业控制力和产业竞争力的效用函数,将同一产业安全水平描述成同一效用下由产业控制力水平和产业竞争力水平不同组合构成的无差异曲线,在此基础上,分别从产业控制力、产业竞争力和产业安全三个层面就外资并购对我国产业安全的影响进行实证分析,并借助无差异曲线评价外资并购对我国产业安全的影响,具有创新性。
二是采用因子分析法就外资并购对上市公司竞争力的影响进行实证研究,这一研究具有创新性。选取2001-2006年我国上市公司外资并购案例,从分析财务绩效的角度,运用因子分析法分析外资并购对上市公司竞争力的影响,在分析中,按照外资来源地、外资控股比例和外资是否取得第一大股东地位角度对样本进行分组统计分析,得出了具有参考价值的结论,该研究的思路、方法和有关结论具有创新性。
三是将竞争力钻石模型采用于研究外资并购对我国产业安全的影响,该研究方法具有创新性。根据不同经济环境下产业竞争力要素不同,运用波特钻石模型、波特-邓宁钻石模型和双钻石模型等竞争力模型,分析外资并购对我国产业控制力、产业竞争力和产业安全影响的机理和效果,使产业安全研究更加全面科学。
虽然本文取得具有一定理论价值和实践价值的研究结论,并在一定程度上有利于丰富和推动产业安全领域的研究。但同时本文还有许多不足之处:首先,没有运用指标体系就外资并购对我国产业安全的影响进行定量分析,仅选择了定性分析的评价方式。其原因,一是由于缺乏足够的数据,二是目前缺乏权威的产业安全指标体系。其次,在构建外资并购对产业安全影响的博弈论模型方面缺乏研究,这显然不利于预测特定市场条件下外资并购行为及其对产业安全的影响。三是对产业安全理论的研究深度不够,不利于更好地把握外资并购对产业安全的影响。以上不足之处将是作者今后研究的重点。
Since the mid 1990's, with the development of economic globalization, the fifth Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) wave has been raised in developed countries and gradually spread to developing countries. In the fifth M&A wave, the quantity and proportion of cross-border M&A increased rapidly and it has become the main style of foreign directly investment nowadays. The international experience of cross-border M&A waves showed that, foreign investors merged and acquired host countries industries (namely foreign capital M&A) that would affect host countries from two aspects as follows: firstly, promote host countries economy growth, capital introduction, technical progress and employment enlargement; secondly, bring significant influence to the survival and development of each country national industries. Therefore, foreign capital M&A became to be one of the important factors to influence industry security in various countries.
Since the reform and opening up, Greenfield Investment was used as the main foreign investment way in China, which constantly kept with coming out top worldwide and the first among developing countries in absorbing foreign capital. And the proportion of foreign capital M&A was always low. Under the background of China entered into WTO in 2001, the laws about foreign capital M&A have become better and economy growth has been in a high speed. Large quantities of foreign investors, such as the multinational corporation, private equity fund and so on, began to be active. The quantity and the referred industries of their activities of M&A increased rapidly. And they merged the main enterprises and well known brands in these industries, such as automobile, soy bean, domestic chemical, equipment manufacturing, medicine, circulation, finance and so on. And some industries even were merged by foreign capital totally. In the context, whether foreign capital M&A to threaten Chinese industry security or not was hotly discussed in all social circles. How to understand the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security became an important issue, which was paid wide attention by theoretical circles and the relevant section of government.
Under the background, the study was instructed by Marxist dialectical materialism and adhered to the combination of theory and practice. The methods, for the example of normative research, empirical research, total analysis, case analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis were combined with. Based on the international experience, modern economic theories such as industry security theory, industry organization theory, foreign capital M&A theory, industry competitive power theory and institution economics theory and the economic research measures such as statistics and game theory were utilized to analyze the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security comprehensively. And the research attained certain conclusions which were of theoretical and actual meaning. The contents and conclusions were contained in seven chapters as follows:
The first chapter was introduction, which described the background and the meaning of the research. It also introduced the study framework, research methods, the main innovations and defects.
The chapter 2 was the correlative theories on foreign capital M&A and industrial security, which reviewed and summarized the theories of foreign capital M&A and industry security comprehensively. And it laid massy foundation to analyze the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security. The theoretical analysis to the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security was carried out and proposed the influence process, evaluation standard and indicators. The analysis framework and methods to research the impact of foreign capital M&A to industry security were formed naturally.
The chapter 3 analyzed the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry control power. On the basis of reviewing the development of Chinese foreign capital M&A, from the perspectives of foreign capital shareholding rate, brand controlling rate, technique controlling rate, market controlling rate and cross-border M&A intersection indicator, the impact degree of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry control power was analyzed. It showed that foreign capital M&A brought significant threat to Chinese industry control power in on-limits industries. Meanwhile, because of foreign capital M&A political limitation in Chinese strategy industries, foreign capital only could threaten Chinese strategy industries a little. Then, the mechanism of foreign capital M&A threatening Chinese industry control power was analyzed, and it showed the main reason of Chinese industry weak competitive power was the threat of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry control power. Finally, taking Chinese soy been industry for example, the threat of foreign capital M&A to industry control power and the hazard of foreign capital M&A to national economy security was analyzed carefully.
The forth chapter discussed the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry competitive power. Firstly, Port-Dunning Diamond Model was utilized to carry out general analysis on the impact of foreign capital M&A to the various factors of Chinese industry competitive power. And the results showed that, there was positive and negative impact. The stock-holding degree and monopolizing degree of foreign capital M&A to nationality enterprises were higher, that would cause more factor loss of nationality industry competitive power. Under the circumstances of foreign capital non-stock-holding and non- monopoly, foreign capital M&A could improve nationality industry competitive power. Secondly, factor analysis was utilized to analyze the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese listed companies' competitive power and attained some referential meaning conclusions as follows: the ability of foreign capital M&A to increase Chinese listed companies' competitive power was positive related to foreign capital companies' strength, the investment proportion of foreign capital and whether foreign capital to be the first majority shareholder or not significantly. However, foreign capital M&A could increase listed companies' competitive power significantly in light of long-term tendencies. Therefore, at the same time of keeping national enterprises holding position, attracting powerful foreign capital company participation and giving them comparative more equity stake could raise national enterprise competitive power and ensure industry security. Finally, based on the case of Chinese automobile industry, impact and its main patterns of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security competitive power. And it showed that, in the context of that Chinese automobile industry permitted foreign capital M&A properly, transferring and overflowing technique increase Chinese automobile industry competitive power significantly after foreign capital M&A.
The chapter 5 was mainly about the impact evaluation of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security and its international comparison. Firstly, the current impact situation of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security was evaluated comprehensively. On the basis of summarizing the condition of foreign capital M&A to industry control power and to industry competitive power, the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese certain sectors industry security was evaluated scientifically. Secondly, Double Diamond Model was used as theoretical tool to analyze Chinese industry security tendencies at the background of foreign capital M&A. The work above showed that, because of economic globalization bringing China "Two Types Markets and Two Types Resource", the dependency of Chinese nationality industries to foreign capital M&A decreased and Chinese industry security would improve further. Finally, by comparing the impact of foreign capital M&A to various countries industry security, the research found that cross-border M&A wave in European and American countries was of intersection M&A characteristic, which was favor of improving international competitive power of these multinational corporations. Because of strict limitation to foreign capital M&A within economy development, Japan attained good industry security effect. However, because Latin American and Eastern European countries encouraged foreign capital M&A excessively, make these countries industry security and economy security be damaged seriously. By comparing these countries above, a conclusion was arrived at as follows: the impact of Chinese foreign capital M&A to industry security was basically appropriate.
The policy suggestions to perfect Chinese foreign capital M&A policy and to maintain industry security were proposed in chapter 6. The experiences to supervise and control foreign capital M&A from developed countries such as the USA, Japan, Canada and European Union, were summed up comprehensively. Then, the general framework to control foreign capital M&A and to maintain Chinese industry security was proposed. Further, strengthening foreign capital M&A control to maintain Chinese industry security should build and perfect Anti-monopoly system, national security system, industry policy system, modern capital market system and marketing economic system and so on.
The seventh chapter was the conclusion and the outlook of the research. The main study conclusion were summarized and it had an outlook about how to perfect the research to the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security.
According to the research, the main conclusions were as follows: firstly, in the context of indulging foreign capital M&A, both Chinese industry control power and industry competitive power would be damaged badly. Further, the degree of Chinese industry security decreased seriously. Secondly, if foreign capital M&A was permitted appropriately, it would increase Chinese national industry competitive power, and it would help to increase Chinese industry security to some degree. Thirdly, according to the tendencies, economic globalization was helpful to improve nationality industry security degree and the threat of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security would further bring down. Fourthly, it was necessary to strengthen to control foreign capital M&A to maintain Chinese industry security.
The innovative points in the study mainly focused in three aspects as follows:
Firstly, normative economics methods were utilized to evaluate the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security. According to utility theory and previous works, industry security was defined as a utility function of industry control power and industry competitive power. The industry security was explained as an indifference curve composed by industry control power and industry competitive power. On that basis above, the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security was analyzed from the perspectives of industry control power, industry competitive power and comprehensive analysis. It was an innovative point in method to evaluate the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security.
Secondly, factor analysis was utilized to do an empirical research on the impact of foreign capital M&A to listed companies' competitive power. Chinese listed company foreign capital M&A cases from 2001 to 2006 were chosen. From the finance corresponsive perspective, factor analysis method was used to analysis the impact of foreign capital M&A to listed companies' competitive power. The samples were grouped by foreign capital resource, foreign capital holding proportion and whether foreign capital to be the first majority shareholder or not. The grouped samples were discussed in statistics and arrived at some referential valuable conclusions.
Finally, Diamond Model of competitive power was utilized to research the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security. According to essential of Chinese industry competitive power in different criteria of opening to the outside world, Port Diamond Model, Port-Dunning Diamond Model and Double Diamond Model were utilized to analyze the influence mechanism and effect of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry control power, industry competitive power and industry security, which provided referential method for analyzing the impact of foreign capital M&A to industry security.
The research utilized economic theories and methods to do a useful exploration on the proposition of Foreign Capital M&A and Chinese Industry Security, and attained some valuable conclusions, but there were some defects. Firstly, indicator system was not used to analyze the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security quantitatively, just chose the evaluation mode of qualitative analysis. The reasons were the shortage of sufficient data and authoritative industry security indicator system. Secondly, the work on constructing game theory model about the impact of foreign capital M&A to industry security was insufficient, and which was not propitious for predicting foreign capital M&A behavior and its impact to industry security within certain market circumstances. Thirdly, the research depth on industry security theory was insufficient, which was not propitious for catching hold the impact of foreign capital M&A to industry security.
改革开放以来,我国利用外商直接投资的方式一直以绿地投资为主,并连续多年保持了吸收外资数量世界前茅和发展中国家最多的地位,外资并购的比例一直很低。而在我国2001年加入WTO之后,在外资并购制度不断完善和经济高速增长的背景下,跨国公司和国外私募股权基金等国外投资者在华并购数量急剧增加,大量并购我国汽车、大豆、日化、食品饮料、装备制造、医药、流通和金融业等产业的龙头骨干企业和知名品牌,甚至在某些行业出现了全行业通吃的局面。鉴于以上情况,社会各界对外资并购是否威胁我国产业安全的讨论十分激烈,如何认识外资并购对我国产业安全的影响,成为理论界和政府有关部门关注的重要问题。
在以上背景下,本文以马克思辩证唯物主义为指导,坚持理论与实践相结合,采用规范研究与实证研究相结合、整体分析与个案分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合的研究方法,运用产业安全理论、产业组织理论、外资并购理论、产业竞争力理论等现代经济学理论,借助统计学、博弈论等经济学研究工具,在借鉴国际经验的基础上,就外资并购对我国产业安全的影响进行了全面分析,得出了具有一定理论意义和现实意义的结论。本文的研究内容和研究结论主要包含在以下7章之中。
第1章导论,阐述了论文的研究背景和研究意义,并介绍了论文的研究思路、研究方法、主要创新点和不足之处。
第2章外资并购与产业安全相关理论,对外资并购相关理论、产业安全相关理论进行回顾总结,并就外资并购对东道国产业安全的影响进行理论分析:提出了外资并购影响东道国产业安全的作用过程、评价方法和评价指标,为研究外资并购对我国产业安全的影响奠定了坚实的理论基础。
第3章外资并购对我国产业控制力的影响分析,在回顾我国外资并购发展状况的基础上,统计并分析了外资并购后的股权控制率、品牌控制率、技术控制率、市场控制率、重要企业控制情况以及我国跨国并购交叉指标情况。通过上述统计分析得出的结论是,在已经开放的产业中,外资并购严重削弱了这些产业的控制力;同时由于我国产业政策限制,外资并购对我国大多数战略性产业的产业控制力没有造成损害;外资并购能够显著削弱我国产业控制力的机理是,在我国民族产业国际竞争力不强的情况下,民族企业通过出让一定控制权来提高企业竞争力。最后,以我国大豆压榨业为案例,具体剖析了外资并购对产业控制力的威胁及其对国家经济安全的危害。
第4章外资并购对我国产业竞争力的影响分析,首先采用波特-邓宁钻石模型就外资并购对我国产业竞争力影响进行了一般性分析,分析结果表明,外资并购对我国民族产业竞争力要素既有促进作用也有损害作用;外资并购对民族企业的控股程度和垄断程度越高,民族产业竞争力要素损失越大;在外资非控股、非垄断的情况下,往往能够提升民族产业竞争力。其次运用因子分析法就外资并购对我国上市公司竞争力的影响进行了实证研究,得出有一定参考价值的结论:外资并购能否提高我国上市公司竞争力,与外资企业自身实力、外资获得股权比例、外资是否取得第一大股东地位这些因素呈正向关系,即有实力的外资在取得控股地位情况下才能显著改善上市公司竞争力;同时从长期趋势看,有实力的外资参股上市公司也能够显著提高上市公司竞争力。因此该研究的政策含义是:民族企业在保持控股地位的同时,积极吸引有实力的外资企业参股,并给予其相对多的股权,能够提高民族企业竞争力。最后,对我国汽车产业进行典型案例分析并得出结论:在我国汽车产业适当允许外资并购的情况下,外资并购通过技术转移和技术溢出,显著提高了我国汽车产业竞争力。
第5章外资并购对我国产业安全的影响评价及国际比较,在分析外资并购对产业控制力和产业竞争力影响的基础上,根据无差异曲线理论,就外资并购对我国产业安全影响进行了现状评价,结论是,外资并购对若干行业产业安全的影响效应不同,使大豆压榨业等产业安全状况明显下降,使汽车产业等产业安全状况有所提高。其次,运用一般化的双钻石模型对外资并购对我国产业安全趋势进行分析,结论是,由于经济全球化给我国带来“两种市场、两种资源”,我国民族企业对外资并购依赖性下降,我国产业安全状况呈现进一步改善的趋势。最后,就外资并购对东道国产业安全影响进行国际比较,总的看,发生在欧美国家的跨国并购浪潮具有交叉性,这有利于欧美国家保持产业控制力和提高产业国际竞争力;在经济发展中,日本严格控制外资并购,注意运用产业政策发展民族产业,取得良好产业安全效果,而拉美、东欧地区国家由于过度鼓励外资并购,这些国家产业安全和经济安全遭受严重损害。通过国际比较,认为外资并购对我国产业安全影响处于基本适度状态。
第6章完善外资并购政策维护我国产业安全的建议,在全面总结美国、日本、加拿大和欧盟各国等发达国家控制外资并购维护产业安全政策经验的基础上,提出加入WTO条件下控制外资并购维护我国产业安全的一般思路,并提出从构建完善的反垄断体系、国家安全体系、产业政策体系、现代资本市场体系等方面加强外资并购控制,以维护我国产业安全。
第7章研究结论和展望,全面总结本文主要结论,对如何进一步深入研究外资并购对我国产业安全的影响提出展望。
本文主要研究结论是:第一,在自由放任的外资并购政策下,外资并购将使我国产业控制力和产业竞争力遭到严重削弱,进而使产业安全水平严重下降;第二,在适当控制外资并购的情况下,外资并购能够提高我国民族产业竞争力,适当鼓励外资并购将有利于促进我国产业安全;第三,从趋势上看,经济全球化对提高民族产业的产业安全水平发挥作用,外资并购对我国产业安全的威胁将进一步降低;第四,需要进一步完善外资并购政策以维护我国产业安全。
本研究创新点主要包括以下三个方面:
一是本文采用的外资并购对我国产业安全影响的评价方法具有创新性。在借鉴前人的研究成果的基础上,运用规范的经济学方法,将产业安全水平描述为产业控制力和产业竞争力的效用函数,将同一产业安全水平描述成同一效用下由产业控制力水平和产业竞争力水平不同组合构成的无差异曲线,在此基础上,分别从产业控制力、产业竞争力和产业安全三个层面就外资并购对我国产业安全的影响进行实证分析,并借助无差异曲线评价外资并购对我国产业安全的影响,具有创新性。
二是采用因子分析法就外资并购对上市公司竞争力的影响进行实证研究,这一研究具有创新性。选取2001-2006年我国上市公司外资并购案例,从分析财务绩效的角度,运用因子分析法分析外资并购对上市公司竞争力的影响,在分析中,按照外资来源地、外资控股比例和外资是否取得第一大股东地位角度对样本进行分组统计分析,得出了具有参考价值的结论,该研究的思路、方法和有关结论具有创新性。
三是将竞争力钻石模型采用于研究外资并购对我国产业安全的影响,该研究方法具有创新性。根据不同经济环境下产业竞争力要素不同,运用波特钻石模型、波特-邓宁钻石模型和双钻石模型等竞争力模型,分析外资并购对我国产业控制力、产业竞争力和产业安全影响的机理和效果,使产业安全研究更加全面科学。
虽然本文取得具有一定理论价值和实践价值的研究结论,并在一定程度上有利于丰富和推动产业安全领域的研究。但同时本文还有许多不足之处:首先,没有运用指标体系就外资并购对我国产业安全的影响进行定量分析,仅选择了定性分析的评价方式。其原因,一是由于缺乏足够的数据,二是目前缺乏权威的产业安全指标体系。其次,在构建外资并购对产业安全影响的博弈论模型方面缺乏研究,这显然不利于预测特定市场条件下外资并购行为及其对产业安全的影响。三是对产业安全理论的研究深度不够,不利于更好地把握外资并购对产业安全的影响。以上不足之处将是作者今后研究的重点。
Since the mid 1990's, with the development of economic globalization, the fifth Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) wave has been raised in developed countries and gradually spread to developing countries. In the fifth M&A wave, the quantity and proportion of cross-border M&A increased rapidly and it has become the main style of foreign directly investment nowadays. The international experience of cross-border M&A waves showed that, foreign investors merged and acquired host countries industries (namely foreign capital M&A) that would affect host countries from two aspects as follows: firstly, promote host countries economy growth, capital introduction, technical progress and employment enlargement; secondly, bring significant influence to the survival and development of each country national industries. Therefore, foreign capital M&A became to be one of the important factors to influence industry security in various countries.
Since the reform and opening up, Greenfield Investment was used as the main foreign investment way in China, which constantly kept with coming out top worldwide and the first among developing countries in absorbing foreign capital. And the proportion of foreign capital M&A was always low. Under the background of China entered into WTO in 2001, the laws about foreign capital M&A have become better and economy growth has been in a high speed. Large quantities of foreign investors, such as the multinational corporation, private equity fund and so on, began to be active. The quantity and the referred industries of their activities of M&A increased rapidly. And they merged the main enterprises and well known brands in these industries, such as automobile, soy bean, domestic chemical, equipment manufacturing, medicine, circulation, finance and so on. And some industries even were merged by foreign capital totally. In the context, whether foreign capital M&A to threaten Chinese industry security or not was hotly discussed in all social circles. How to understand the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security became an important issue, which was paid wide attention by theoretical circles and the relevant section of government.
Under the background, the study was instructed by Marxist dialectical materialism and adhered to the combination of theory and practice. The methods, for the example of normative research, empirical research, total analysis, case analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis were combined with. Based on the international experience, modern economic theories such as industry security theory, industry organization theory, foreign capital M&A theory, industry competitive power theory and institution economics theory and the economic research measures such as statistics and game theory were utilized to analyze the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security comprehensively. And the research attained certain conclusions which were of theoretical and actual meaning. The contents and conclusions were contained in seven chapters as follows:
The first chapter was introduction, which described the background and the meaning of the research. It also introduced the study framework, research methods, the main innovations and defects.
The chapter 2 was the correlative theories on foreign capital M&A and industrial security, which reviewed and summarized the theories of foreign capital M&A and industry security comprehensively. And it laid massy foundation to analyze the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security. The theoretical analysis to the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security was carried out and proposed the influence process, evaluation standard and indicators. The analysis framework and methods to research the impact of foreign capital M&A to industry security were formed naturally.
The chapter 3 analyzed the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry control power. On the basis of reviewing the development of Chinese foreign capital M&A, from the perspectives of foreign capital shareholding rate, brand controlling rate, technique controlling rate, market controlling rate and cross-border M&A intersection indicator, the impact degree of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry control power was analyzed. It showed that foreign capital M&A brought significant threat to Chinese industry control power in on-limits industries. Meanwhile, because of foreign capital M&A political limitation in Chinese strategy industries, foreign capital only could threaten Chinese strategy industries a little. Then, the mechanism of foreign capital M&A threatening Chinese industry control power was analyzed, and it showed the main reason of Chinese industry weak competitive power was the threat of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry control power. Finally, taking Chinese soy been industry for example, the threat of foreign capital M&A to industry control power and the hazard of foreign capital M&A to national economy security was analyzed carefully.
The forth chapter discussed the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry competitive power. Firstly, Port-Dunning Diamond Model was utilized to carry out general analysis on the impact of foreign capital M&A to the various factors of Chinese industry competitive power. And the results showed that, there was positive and negative impact. The stock-holding degree and monopolizing degree of foreign capital M&A to nationality enterprises were higher, that would cause more factor loss of nationality industry competitive power. Under the circumstances of foreign capital non-stock-holding and non- monopoly, foreign capital M&A could improve nationality industry competitive power. Secondly, factor analysis was utilized to analyze the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese listed companies' competitive power and attained some referential meaning conclusions as follows: the ability of foreign capital M&A to increase Chinese listed companies' competitive power was positive related to foreign capital companies' strength, the investment proportion of foreign capital and whether foreign capital to be the first majority shareholder or not significantly. However, foreign capital M&A could increase listed companies' competitive power significantly in light of long-term tendencies. Therefore, at the same time of keeping national enterprises holding position, attracting powerful foreign capital company participation and giving them comparative more equity stake could raise national enterprise competitive power and ensure industry security. Finally, based on the case of Chinese automobile industry, impact and its main patterns of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security competitive power. And it showed that, in the context of that Chinese automobile industry permitted foreign capital M&A properly, transferring and overflowing technique increase Chinese automobile industry competitive power significantly after foreign capital M&A.
The chapter 5 was mainly about the impact evaluation of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security and its international comparison. Firstly, the current impact situation of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security was evaluated comprehensively. On the basis of summarizing the condition of foreign capital M&A to industry control power and to industry competitive power, the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese certain sectors industry security was evaluated scientifically. Secondly, Double Diamond Model was used as theoretical tool to analyze Chinese industry security tendencies at the background of foreign capital M&A. The work above showed that, because of economic globalization bringing China "Two Types Markets and Two Types Resource", the dependency of Chinese nationality industries to foreign capital M&A decreased and Chinese industry security would improve further. Finally, by comparing the impact of foreign capital M&A to various countries industry security, the research found that cross-border M&A wave in European and American countries was of intersection M&A characteristic, which was favor of improving international competitive power of these multinational corporations. Because of strict limitation to foreign capital M&A within economy development, Japan attained good industry security effect. However, because Latin American and Eastern European countries encouraged foreign capital M&A excessively, make these countries industry security and economy security be damaged seriously. By comparing these countries above, a conclusion was arrived at as follows: the impact of Chinese foreign capital M&A to industry security was basically appropriate.
The policy suggestions to perfect Chinese foreign capital M&A policy and to maintain industry security were proposed in chapter 6. The experiences to supervise and control foreign capital M&A from developed countries such as the USA, Japan, Canada and European Union, were summed up comprehensively. Then, the general framework to control foreign capital M&A and to maintain Chinese industry security was proposed. Further, strengthening foreign capital M&A control to maintain Chinese industry security should build and perfect Anti-monopoly system, national security system, industry policy system, modern capital market system and marketing economic system and so on.
The seventh chapter was the conclusion and the outlook of the research. The main study conclusion were summarized and it had an outlook about how to perfect the research to the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security.
According to the research, the main conclusions were as follows: firstly, in the context of indulging foreign capital M&A, both Chinese industry control power and industry competitive power would be damaged badly. Further, the degree of Chinese industry security decreased seriously. Secondly, if foreign capital M&A was permitted appropriately, it would increase Chinese national industry competitive power, and it would help to increase Chinese industry security to some degree. Thirdly, according to the tendencies, economic globalization was helpful to improve nationality industry security degree and the threat of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security would further bring down. Fourthly, it was necessary to strengthen to control foreign capital M&A to maintain Chinese industry security.
The innovative points in the study mainly focused in three aspects as follows:
Firstly, normative economics methods were utilized to evaluate the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security. According to utility theory and previous works, industry security was defined as a utility function of industry control power and industry competitive power. The industry security was explained as an indifference curve composed by industry control power and industry competitive power. On that basis above, the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security was analyzed from the perspectives of industry control power, industry competitive power and comprehensive analysis. It was an innovative point in method to evaluate the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security.
Secondly, factor analysis was utilized to do an empirical research on the impact of foreign capital M&A to listed companies' competitive power. Chinese listed company foreign capital M&A cases from 2001 to 2006 were chosen. From the finance corresponsive perspective, factor analysis method was used to analysis the impact of foreign capital M&A to listed companies' competitive power. The samples were grouped by foreign capital resource, foreign capital holding proportion and whether foreign capital to be the first majority shareholder or not. The grouped samples were discussed in statistics and arrived at some referential valuable conclusions.
Finally, Diamond Model of competitive power was utilized to research the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security. According to essential of Chinese industry competitive power in different criteria of opening to the outside world, Port Diamond Model, Port-Dunning Diamond Model and Double Diamond Model were utilized to analyze the influence mechanism and effect of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry control power, industry competitive power and industry security, which provided referential method for analyzing the impact of foreign capital M&A to industry security.
The research utilized economic theories and methods to do a useful exploration on the proposition of Foreign Capital M&A and Chinese Industry Security, and attained some valuable conclusions, but there were some defects. Firstly, indicator system was not used to analyze the impact of foreign capital M&A to Chinese industry security quantitatively, just chose the evaluation mode of qualitative analysis. The reasons were the shortage of sufficient data and authoritative industry security indicator system. Secondly, the work on constructing game theory model about the impact of foreign capital M&A to industry security was insufficient, and which was not propitious for predicting foreign capital M&A behavior and its impact to industry security within certain market circumstances. Thirdly, the research depth on industry security theory was insufficient, which was not propitious for catching hold the impact of foreign capital M&A to industry security.
引文
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[1]曹建海:破解中国经济社会发展大格局,中国公共政策研究网,http://www.crcpp.org/cpipphtml/qitaxuezhe/2007-10/29/200710290943.html.
[1]参考《外资并购9大模式现行记》的分析,程继明,《中国投资》,2003年第9期.
[1]参见本文附录一。
[2]参见“当前外资并购在我国快速增长的特征、原因及影响分析”.http://www.gzxz.gov.cn/Article/ShowArticle.asp?ArticleID=911.
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[4]见《外资企业在华影响力不断提升独资、并购浪潮值得注意》.http://www.lngzw.gov.cn/article/20061210/3089.htm.
[1]见《二○○七年国际金融市场报告》,中国人民银行,2008,www.pbc.gov.cn.
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[1]见《金融开放下的中国银行业并购》,何振亚著,第189页.
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[1]跨国粮商瞄准中国“粮袋子”力防”粮袋子”受制于人,《瞭望》,董振国 王春雨,见http://www.agri.gov.cn/jjps/t20080624_1069197.htm
[2]外资企业侵蚀我国粮食安全调查,http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2009-01-14/231517044943.shtml.
[1]时代周报:外资寡头控制中国粮食生产调查,http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2009-01-14/231517044943.shtml
[2]外资侵蚀中国粮食安全,http://www.foodsl.com/content/694752/
[3]跨国粮商瞄准中国“粮袋子”力防“粮袋子”受制于人,《瞭望》,董振国 王春雨,见http://www.agri.gov.cn/jjps/t20080624_1069197.htm
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[2]参见中信证券:宝钢为何大买钢铁股?http://news.stockstar.com/info/Darticle.aspx?id=GA,20060605,00221997
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[1]在整个国民经济的VV线和UU线决定后,求整个国民产业安全的最佳状态0点,即可表示为:MAX(UU)=u(DN,DN/GDP),s.t.最大化点(DN,DN/GDP)应在曲线VV线内,有:DN≤f(DN/GDP),解此得在斜率相等,即两线相切时的a(DN_0,A)点,即:|f′|=|u′|时,有UU→MAX。以上证明参见赵世洪.国民产业安全若干理论问题研究[J].中央财经大学学报,1998(05).
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[1]以下分析参考了张训苏 张陆洋等.境外关于外资并购及行业准入的相关规则以及我国证券市场对外开放过程中应注意的问题[N].上海证券报.2007.
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[1]以下分析参见张训苏 张陆洋等.境外关于外资并购及行业准入的相关规则以及我国证券市场对外开放过程中应注意的问题[N].上海证券报.2007.
[2]见外资并购中“国家安全”审查制度之比较,http://www.longandfield.com/cn。
[1]参考了桑百川教授的分析,桑百川.双刃在肩 谨慎行事——跨国公司并购我国装备工业龙头企业的现状与影响[J].国际贸易,2006(03).
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[1]以下分析参考产业竞争力理论体系的构建,作者 陶良虎,张道金,见http://www.gmw.cn/01gmrb/2006-02/07/content_369854.htm.
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[1]主要是参考了赵世洪的观点.见赵世洪.国民产业安全若干理论问题研究[J].中央财经大学学报.1998(05).
[1]以上指标参考了李海舰.外资进入与国家经济安全[J].中国工业经济,1997(8).
[1]参见姚战琪.跨国公司、并购行为与市场结构[J].产业经济研究.2004(02).
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[2]外资企业侵蚀我国粮食安全调查,http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2009-01-14/231517044943.shtml.
[1]时代周报:外资寡头控制中国粮食生产调查,http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2009-01-14/231517044943.shtml
[2]外资侵蚀中国粮食安全,http://www.foodsl.com/content/694752/
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