我国区域竞技体育发展现状与社会人口结构的关系研究
摘要
本文以全国31个省、市及自治区为具体研究对象,通过相关分析、多元回归分析、综合评价分析、对应分析以及主成分多元回归分析等研究方法,采用定量与定性相结合的分析手段,对区域竞技体育发展现状与社会人口结构(年龄结构、文化结构、职业结构、城乡结构、分布结构及发展结构)进行实证研究。相关分析表明:年轻型人口社会可为竞技体育发展提供人才储备,成年型人口社会是竞技体育发展的“黄金时期”,老年型人口社会将在一定程度上制约竞技体育的发展。竞技体育的发展水平与高文化教育程度人群存在显著正相关关系。传统型人口产业结构是制约我国竞技体育进一步发展的重要因素,进入发展型人口产业结构时期的国家(或地区)将是竞技体育事业进一步发展的大好机遇,现代型人口产业结构对我国竞技体育事业的作用最为明显。竞技体育与非农业人口所占比例成正向变动关系,与农业人口所占比例成反向变动关系。社会人口分布结构对竞技体育事业的影响主要是通过自然环境、社会生产力与科学技术三大因素来反映。社会人口发展结构(出生率、死亡率、自然增长率等)与竞技体育呈负相关关系。多元同归分析显示:社会人口结构统计指标与竞技体育成绩的多元回归模型整体拟合效果较好,能较准确地定量刻画区域竞技体育发展现状与社会人口结构指标之间的数量化关系。社会人口死亡率、人口自然增长率、第一产业人口、私营单位人口和大专以上文化人口这5项人口学统计指标对区域竞技体育成绩的影响尤为突出,说明我国社会人口结构的变迁对区域竞技体育事业的影响越来越深刻。区域社会人口结构的综合评价得出:全国31个省、市及白治区共有12个地区综合评价得分高于全国平均水平,而另外19个地区综合评价得分则低于全国平均水平,表明区域社会人口结构的总体差异程度比较明显。对应分析发现:区域竞技体育发展现状与社会人口结构之间保持着较为准确的对应关系,两者是一种相互促进、互相制约的辨证关系,即区域社会人口质量越高,人口结构越优化,区域人口资源配置越合理,其对推动我国竞技体育事业的发展壮大将产生积极影响。反之,区域竞技体育事业的不断发展,对促进社会人口结构优化升级,提高人口整体素质,改善居民生活方式等也将产生不可忽视的作用。主成分多元回归分析表明:主成分多元回归模型揭示了社会人口结构6大纬度与区域竞技体育发展现状的内在联系,克服了传统多元回归分析的多重共线性问题,使研究结论更具实际意义。根据该主成分多元回归模型可知,社会人口年龄结构对我国区域竞技体育发展现状的贡献程度为33.45%,社会人口文化结构的贡献程度为36.91%,社会人口职业结构的贡献程度为46.10%,社会人口城乡结构的贡献程度为-24.29%,社会人口分布结构的贡献程度为30.65%,社会人口发展结构的贡献程度为16.95%。依据6大纬度贡献程度的绝对值大小排序,依次为:社会人口职业结构＞社会人口文化结构＞社会人口年龄结构＞社会人口分布结构＞社会人口城乡结构＞社会人口发展结构,说明我国社会人口城乡结构对区域竞技体育发展具有负向影响效果,而社会人口职业结构对区域竞技体育发展的影响最为明显。综上所述,竞技体育发展不平衡仍是制约我国整体体育事业发展的主要因素,而其中一个重要的原因就是区域社会人口结构差异较大,各地区社会人口年龄结构、文化结构、职业结构、城乡结构、分布结构及发展结构差距明显,特别是东部与中、西部地区最为突出。基于此,研究认为目前的首要任务就是积极采取有效措施,优化升级人口结构,合理配置人口资源,实现社会人口结构与竞技体育的可持续协调发展。当然,社会人口结构对竞技体育的制约,不能简单的从机械的因果关系中去理解,竞技体育发展水平的高低是政治、经济、文化、科学技术、民族传统、自然环境等综合因素的体现,有时由于政治的需要,国家意志在这方面也起重要的作用。但人口作为一切社会活动的实践者,是国家或社会存在的基础,如果没有人的发展,那怎么谈得上竞技体育的发展呢?因此,归根结底还是应充分重视社会人口结构对竞技体育的重要作用。本研究通过研究和揭示社会人口结构以直接或间接的形式作用于竞技体育,从而明确社会人口结构与竞技体育的依存关系,旨在为实现我国社会人口结构与竞技体育的可持续协调发展提供理论参考。
In this paper,31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions are used for specific subjects,through correlation analysis,multiple regression analysis,comprehensive evaluation analysis,correspondence analysis and principal component regression analysis and so on,studies the athletic sports development and social structure of the population(age structure,cultural structure, occupational structure,urban and rural structure,distribution structure and development structure). Correlation analysis showed that young population community can provide talent reserves for athletic sports,adult society is the "golden era" of athletic sports development,the elderly community will be constrained to the athletic sports development to some degree.There was a positive correlation between the athletic sports and high level educational crowd.Traditional population industrial structure is an important factor that restricted the further development of China's athletics,development population industrial structure is a good opportunity for athletics,the modern population industrial structure play the most obvious role in China's athletics.Athletic sports and non-farming population is the positive relation,with the agricultural population is the negative relation.Social population distribution structure impacts the athletic sports mainly through the natural environment,social productive forces,science and technology.It was a negative correlation between social population development structure(birth rate,mortality rate,the natural growth rate, etc.)and athletics.Multiple regression analysis showed that:the multivariate regression model of social population structure statistical indexs and athletics is fitted well,this model can describle the quantity relationship between regional athletics and social population structure statistical indexs.The impact of population mortality,the natural population growth rate,the primary industry population and the private units population to athletics is very obvious,it is implied that the social population structure changes can impact athletics profoundly.The comprehensive evaluation of regional social population structure showed that:there are 12 regions that the comprehensive evaluation scores higher than the national average,while the comprehensive evaluation scores of the other 19 regions were lower than the national average,it is infered that the differences of regional social population structure is more obvious.Correspondence analysis found:regional athletics and social population structure keep the accurate correlation,they are mutual promotion and mutual restraint dialectical relations,that is,the higher the quality of regional population,the demographic structure optimization,the more reasonable distribution of regional population,which will promot the development of athletics.Instead,with the development of athletics,it will have an important role in upgrading the social population structure,enhancing the overall quality of population,improve people's lifestyles.Principal component regression analysis showed that:principal component regression model reveals the intrinsically link of social population structure 6 latitude and athletics, and overcome the multicollinearity problems of traditional multiple regression analysis,which make the conclusion of study more practical.According to this model,we can see that the contribution degree of population age structure to athletics is 33.45%,the contribution degree of social population cultural structure is 36.91%,the contribution degree of social population occupational structure is 46.10%,the contribution degree of social population urban and rural structure is -24.29%,the contribution degree of social population distribution structure is 30.65%,the contribution degree of social population development structure is 16.95%.Based the absolute size of 6 latitude,followed by: occupational structure＞cultural structure＞age structure＞distribution structure＞the urban and rural structure＞development structure,which implied that there were negative effects between social population urban and rural structure and athletics,the effects were most obvious between occupational structure and athletics.To sum up,uneven development of athletics is still restricted the development of overall athletics,one important reason is regional population structure differences, the regional gap of age structure,cultural structure,occupational structure,urban and rural structure, distribution structure and development structure is very significantly,especially between eastern and central,western.Based on this,our task is to take active and effective measures to optimize and upgrade the population structure,distribute the population resources reasonablely,and realize the coordinated sustainable development of social population structure and athletics.Of course,the constraints of social population structure to athletics,we can't understand the causal relationship from the machinery simply,there were some other factors can impact the athletics,such as political, economic,cultural,science and technology,national traditions and the natural environment. However,population as the practice of all social activities,it's the basis of national or social,if there were no population,how can we talk about the development of athletics? Therefore,we should pay attention to the important role of social population structure.This study reveals the population structure in the form of direct or indirect role in athletics,defined the interdependence relation between population structure and athletics clearly,and reliaze the coordination sustainable development of athletics and social population structure.
In this paper,31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions are used for specific subjects,through correlation analysis,multiple regression analysis,comprehensive evaluation analysis,correspondence analysis and principal component regression analysis and so on,studies the athletic sports development and social structure of the population(age structure,cultural structure, occupational structure,urban and rural structure,distribution structure and development structure). Correlation analysis showed that young population community can provide talent reserves for athletic sports,adult society is the "golden era" of athletic sports development,the elderly community will be constrained to the athletic sports development to some degree.There was a positive correlation between the athletic sports and high level educational crowd.Traditional population industrial structure is an important factor that restricted the further development of China's athletics,development population industrial structure is a good opportunity for athletics,the modern population industrial structure play the most obvious role in China's athletics.Athletic sports and non-farming population is the positive relation,with the agricultural population is the negative relation.Social population distribution structure impacts the athletic sports mainly through the natural environment,social productive forces,science and technology.It was a negative correlation between social population development structure(birth rate,mortality rate,the natural growth rate, etc.)and athletics.Multiple regression analysis showed that:the multivariate regression model of social population structure statistical indexs and athletics is fitted well,this model can describle the quantity relationship between regional athletics and social population structure statistical indexs.The impact of population mortality,the natural population growth rate,the primary industry population and the private units population to athletics is very obvious,it is implied that the social population structure changes can impact athletics profoundly.The comprehensive evaluation of regional social population structure showed that:there are 12 regions that the comprehensive evaluation scores higher than the national average,while the comprehensive evaluation scores of the other 19 regions were lower than the national average,it is infered that the differences of regional social population structure is more obvious.Correspondence analysis found:regional athletics and social population structure keep the accurate correlation,they are mutual promotion and mutual restraint dialectical relations,that is,the higher the quality of regional population,the demographic structure optimization,the more reasonable distribution of regional population,which will promot the development of athletics.Instead,with the development of athletics,it will have an important role in upgrading the social population structure,enhancing the overall quality of population,improve people's lifestyles.Principal component regression analysis showed that:principal component regression model reveals the intrinsically link of social population structure 6 latitude and athletics, and overcome the multicollinearity problems of traditional multiple regression analysis,which make the conclusion of study more practical.According to this model,we can see that the contribution degree of population age structure to athletics is 33.45%,the contribution degree of social population cultural structure is 36.91%,the contribution degree of social population occupational structure is 46.10%,the contribution degree of social population urban and rural structure is -24.29%,the contribution degree of social population distribution structure is 30.65%,the contribution degree of social population development structure is 16.95%.Based the absolute size of 6 latitude,followed by: occupational structure＞cultural structure＞age structure＞distribution structure＞the urban and rural structure＞development structure,which implied that there were negative effects between social population urban and rural structure and athletics,the effects were most obvious between occupational structure and athletics.To sum up,uneven development of athletics is still restricted the development of overall athletics,one important reason is regional population structure differences, the regional gap of age structure,cultural structure,occupational structure,urban and rural structure, distribution structure and development structure is very significantly,especially between eastern and central,western.Based on this,our task is to take active and effective measures to optimize and upgrade the population structure,distribute the population resources reasonablely,and realize the coordinated sustainable development of social population structure and athletics.Of course,the constraints of social population structure to athletics,we can't understand the causal relationship from the machinery simply,there were some other factors can impact the athletics,such as political, economic,cultural,science and technology,national traditions and the natural environment. However,population as the practice of all social activities,it's the basis of national or social,if there were no population,how can we talk about the development of athletics? Therefore,we should pay attention to the important role of social population structure.This study reveals the population structure in the form of direct or indirect role in athletics,defined the interdependence relation between population structure and athletics clearly,and reliaze the coordination sustainable development of athletics and social population structure.
引文
[1]佟新.人口社会学[M].北京:北京大学出版社.2003.9.183-298.
[2]封进,宋铮.中国人口年龄结构与养老保险制度的福利效应[J].南方经济,2006,(11):22-32.
[3]周春山,王丽斯,吴晓松.广州市人口职业结构的空间特征分析[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2006,45(2):92-96.
[4]侯明喜.人口老年化对我国社会保险制度的影响[J].集团经济研究,2007,3月下旬刊(225):110-111.
[5]朱宝树.人口城镇化与城乡统筹发展[J].华东师范火学学报(哲学社会科学版),2006,38(4):28-34.
[6]陈友华,吴凯.人口现代化对人口结构的影响[J].人口学刊,2007,162(2):3-8.
[7]肖焕禹,翁志强,陈玉忠.当代中国芊十会结构与体育人口结构的基本特征[J].上海体育学院学报,2005,29(2):10-14.
[8]李红,薛海红,冯武龙.中国人口与中国体育人口比较的社会学分析[J].西安体育学院学报,2007,24(4):25-28.
[9]徐箐,肖焕禹.上海市人口年龄结构与体育人口年龄结构的研究[J].上海体育学院学报,2005,41(6):34-36.
[10]内森.凯菲茨.应用数理人口学[M].北京:华夏出版社.1999.10.
[11]蒋志学.人口与可持续发展[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社.2000.12.
[12]乔晓春,李建民等.人口学教程[M].北京:人民教育出版社.2000.
[13]仇军.中国体育人口的理论探索和实证研究[M].北京:北京体育大学出版社,2002.67-131.
[14]钟天朗.体育经济学概论[M].上海:上海复旦大学出版社,2004.85-94,143-155.
[15]胡鞍钢.人口与发展—中国人口经济问题的系统研究[M].浙江:浙江人民出版社.1989.
[16]洪英芳.世界人口经济概论[M].吉林:吉林大学出版社.1990.
[17]黄容清.转型时期中国社会人口[M].辽宁:辽宁教育出版社,2004.12.177-225.
[18]吴增基,吴鹏森,苏振芳.现代社会学(第二版)[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2001,77-89.
[19]朱厚伦.中国区域经济发展战略[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2004.
[20]夏崇德,何志金,陈颇等.社会经济的发展与竞技体育的相关分析[J].体育科学, 2006,26(2):22-28.
[21]郑杭生.社会学概论新修(第三版)[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社.2002.269-373.
[22]周庆行.现代社会学[M].重庆:重庆大学出版社.2003.5.289-314.
[23]林显鹏,杨越等.我国体育产业发展现状及对策研究[J].体育科学,2006,26(2):3-9.
[24]郭明方,周克臣等.湖南省竞技体育可持续发展研究[J].中国体育科技,2006,42(1):8-12.
[25]王永,熊晓正,金广江等.论城镇化对农村体育的影响[J].体育科学,2006,26(1):31-34
[26]王学民.我国各地区城镇居民消费性支出的分析研究[J].财经研究,2002,28(1):64-69.
[27]朱建平,殷瑞飞.SPSS在统计分析中的应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2007:171-177.
[28]卢纹岱.SPSS for Windows统计分析(第3版)[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2006:477-516.
[29]曾五一,李海涛.中国区域间教育平等状况的统计考察[J].统计研究,2007,24(7):29-33.
[30]唐文彬,韩之俊.财务综合评价中的主成分分析方法[J].统计与决策,2001,140(8):37.
[31]苏为华.综合评价学[M](第1版).北京:中国市场出版社,2005:166-170.
[32]郑福寿,沈长松,林益才.主成分同归分析法在混凝土坝初次蓄水期应力统计模型中的应用[J].大坝与安全,2001,(1):38-40.
[33]罗文海,万巧云,高永.主成分回归分析与多元线性回归的对比研究[J].数理医药学杂志,2003,16(2):140-143.
[34]吴曰想,张莉苹.上市公司经营业绩的主成分同归实证研究[J].财会月刊,2004,(B6):48-49.
[2]封进,宋铮.中国人口年龄结构与养老保险制度的福利效应[J].南方经济,2006,(11):22-32.
[3]周春山,王丽斯,吴晓松.广州市人口职业结构的空间特征分析[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2006,45(2):92-96.
[4]侯明喜.人口老年化对我国社会保险制度的影响[J].集团经济研究,2007,3月下旬刊(225):110-111.
[5]朱宝树.人口城镇化与城乡统筹发展[J].华东师范火学学报(哲学社会科学版),2006,38(4):28-34.
[6]陈友华,吴凯.人口现代化对人口结构的影响[J].人口学刊,2007,162(2):3-8.
[7]肖焕禹,翁志强,陈玉忠.当代中国芊十会结构与体育人口结构的基本特征[J].上海体育学院学报,2005,29(2):10-14.
[8]李红,薛海红,冯武龙.中国人口与中国体育人口比较的社会学分析[J].西安体育学院学报,2007,24(4):25-28.
[9]徐箐,肖焕禹.上海市人口年龄结构与体育人口年龄结构的研究[J].上海体育学院学报,2005,41(6):34-36.
[10]内森.凯菲茨.应用数理人口学[M].北京:华夏出版社.1999.10.
[11]蒋志学.人口与可持续发展[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社.2000.12.
[12]乔晓春,李建民等.人口学教程[M].北京:人民教育出版社.2000.
[13]仇军.中国体育人口的理论探索和实证研究[M].北京:北京体育大学出版社,2002.67-131.
[14]钟天朗.体育经济学概论[M].上海:上海复旦大学出版社,2004.85-94,143-155.
[15]胡鞍钢.人口与发展—中国人口经济问题的系统研究[M].浙江:浙江人民出版社.1989.
[16]洪英芳.世界人口经济概论[M].吉林:吉林大学出版社.1990.
[17]黄容清.转型时期中国社会人口[M].辽宁:辽宁教育出版社,2004.12.177-225.
[18]吴增基,吴鹏森,苏振芳.现代社会学(第二版)[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2001,77-89.
[19]朱厚伦.中国区域经济发展战略[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2004.
[20]夏崇德,何志金,陈颇等.社会经济的发展与竞技体育的相关分析[J].体育科学, 2006,26(2):22-28.
[21]郑杭生.社会学概论新修(第三版)[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社.2002.269-373.
[22]周庆行.现代社会学[M].重庆:重庆大学出版社.2003.5.289-314.
[23]林显鹏,杨越等.我国体育产业发展现状及对策研究[J].体育科学,2006,26(2):3-9.
[24]郭明方,周克臣等.湖南省竞技体育可持续发展研究[J].中国体育科技,2006,42(1):8-12.
[25]王永,熊晓正,金广江等.论城镇化对农村体育的影响[J].体育科学,2006,26(1):31-34
[26]王学民.我国各地区城镇居民消费性支出的分析研究[J].财经研究,2002,28(1):64-69.
[27]朱建平,殷瑞飞.SPSS在统计分析中的应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2007:171-177.
[28]卢纹岱.SPSS for Windows统计分析(第3版)[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2006:477-516.
[29]曾五一,李海涛.中国区域间教育平等状况的统计考察[J].统计研究,2007,24(7):29-33.
[30]唐文彬,韩之俊.财务综合评价中的主成分分析方法[J].统计与决策,2001,140(8):37.
[31]苏为华.综合评价学[M](第1版).北京:中国市场出版社,2005:166-170.
[32]郑福寿,沈长松,林益才.主成分同归分析法在混凝土坝初次蓄水期应力统计模型中的应用[J].大坝与安全,2001,(1):38-40.
[33]罗文海,万巧云,高永.主成分回归分析与多元线性回归的对比研究[J].数理医药学杂志,2003,16(2):140-143.
[34]吴曰想,张莉苹.上市公司经营业绩的主成分同归实证研究[J].财会月刊,2004,(B6):48-49.