企业并购的价值评估研究
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摘要
经过几十年的发展,我国企业并购市场取得了长足的进步,已经与刚刚起步时有天壤之别。然而另一方面,在经济增长快速发展,且先进的并购技术手段作用日益凸现的背景下,近年来的企业并购却常常招人诟病,而国内资产贱卖于国外和国有资产流失的呼声也从来没有断过,那么个中原因何在?另外,虽然企业并购的定量化和事后效果研究一直被视为解释企业并购的重要因素,但现有研究侧重于简单的整体数据处理,而缺乏对企业具体并购时价值的确定过程和影响并购价值的关键变量的深入探讨。有鉴于此,本文在结合马克思的价值规律、费雪的资产定价原理、奈特的不确定性与利润理论以及现有的研究成果的基础上,借助于均衡理论、离散随机过程、模糊随机函数等主流经济学理论和现代计量经济学和数学分析方法,从理论和实证两个层面对企业并购的价值确定进行了研究,并据此来提出确定企业并购价值方法,实现企业并购价值合理化的建议。
本文首先立足于中国企业发展的阶段性与特殊性,在对比国外的并购历史和企业价值理念后表明:虽然企业并购价值的确定方式千变万化,但是深入探讨马克思的企业价值理论和西方的企业价值理论可以发现,有关企业价值的理念是一脉相通的,企业未来价值的折现仍旧是解释企业并购价值的最好方法,而目前关于其并购价值的判定却常常忽视了价值评定中最重要的部分。在此基础上,本文通过对比不同的价值理论和其实质联系,选取企业未来价值和折现率作为研究的切入点,通过不断的深入和放开理论假定,提出了一个研究企业价值的综合分析框架:并购历史价值波动的启示——企业并购价值理论和并购动因——并购价值模型的建立和实证——引入预期不确定性的模型改进,并在最后对企业并购价值的事后验证进行了深入的分析。与现有的研究相比,该分析框架既从一定程度上有效弥补了片面强调事后检验法即历史统计就是真理的缺陷,又突出了企业并购价值确定中最重要的影响因素。更为重要的是,该分析框架总结现有的理论方法,通过对不同的理论方法的实质内涵研究并引入不同的数学处理方式,同时揭示了实际企业并购价值确定中的关键变量,即预期在企业价值并购中的主导地位,毋庸置疑,随着中国企业并购市场化进程的不断推进,在企业并购的价值确定中这些重要变量将起到至关重要的作用。本文进一步对所提出的研究企业并购价值的综合分析框架进行了经验研究,也即企业并购效率的测定,本文采用临床诊断的方法,结合现有的方法针对文中提到的企业并购进行了范例式的分析。最后,基于本文的理论分析和实证结论,提出了缩小企业并购价值谬误的相关建议。
After several decades of development, China's M & A market has already poles apart from the original model. However, in the base of rapid development of economic growth and advanced technological means had already highlighted the growing role of context, the recent corporate mergers and acquisitions are often Criticized by the public, on the other hand voice of the loss of state domestic assets and foreign assets buying the domestic assets in a very cheap price which apparent lack of fair has never broken off. Then what is the reason?In addition, although the quantitative and after-effects of research M & A has been explained as an important factor in M & A, but the research has focused on the overall simple data processing. It’s lack of in-depth study the value of the key variables during specific corporate mergers and acquisitions what determining the value of the process and impact of mergers and acquisitions. In view of this, in the base of the previous studies, based on the help of corporate value theory, equilibrium theory, and other modern mainstream economic theory and econometric, mathematical analysis method, I have studied form two levels of including theoretical and empirical sides of the value of M & A, and accordingly to make accurate determination of the value of corporate mergers and acquisitions. In the end, I also have given the rationalize proposal of the value of the mergers and acquisitions of enterprises.
In this paper, first based on the phased and particularity development of Chinese enterprises, in contrast with foreign acquisition history has showed that: Although there are many ways determine the value of the enterprise M & A, but discounted the future value of the enterprise is still value of enterprise M & A. On the basis of this and by comparing the different theories and the value of its real link, I selected the enterprise value of the future and the discount rate as the entry point for research. After continuous in-depth and open theoretical assumptions, I have proposed a comprehensive research enterprise value of the analytical framework of history Contrast-enterprise value of mergers and acquisitions-the value of the calculation and improvements-the expected introduction of uncertainty. And in the final of the paper I also have in-depth conducted the efficiency of M & A. Compared with the existing research, this analytical framework from make up the statistical shortcomings to some extent for a one-sided emphasis on effective after which means that in the future history always is the truth, and highlights the most important factor value in the enterprise M & A. More importantly, the analysis concluded the framework of the existing theory, used the theory of different ways through studying real meaning of different studies and the mathematical approach to reveal the key variables in the actual value of M & A that expectation is in the leading position in the decision of the Enterprise value during mergers and acquisitions. There is no doubt that as the continuous progress of the China's M & A market process, these key variables will play a crucial role in determining the value of corporate mergers and acquisitions.
Further study of this article is analysised by the value of M & A comprehensive analysis framework for empirical research, that is, the efficiency of M & A. In view of this paper using the clinical diagnosis methods and combining the existing methods mentioned in the text of this article, I have analyzed the efficiency of the Enterprise M & A as an example. Finally, based on this paper, the theoretical analysis and empirical conclusions, we have proposed reducing the value of M & A fallacy of the relevant recommendations.
本文首先立足于中国企业发展的阶段性与特殊性,在对比国外的并购历史和企业价值理念后表明:虽然企业并购价值的确定方式千变万化,但是深入探讨马克思的企业价值理论和西方的企业价值理论可以发现,有关企业价值的理念是一脉相通的,企业未来价值的折现仍旧是解释企业并购价值的最好方法,而目前关于其并购价值的判定却常常忽视了价值评定中最重要的部分。在此基础上,本文通过对比不同的价值理论和其实质联系,选取企业未来价值和折现率作为研究的切入点,通过不断的深入和放开理论假定,提出了一个研究企业价值的综合分析框架:并购历史价值波动的启示——企业并购价值理论和并购动因——并购价值模型的建立和实证——引入预期不确定性的模型改进,并在最后对企业并购价值的事后验证进行了深入的分析。与现有的研究相比,该分析框架既从一定程度上有效弥补了片面强调事后检验法即历史统计就是真理的缺陷,又突出了企业并购价值确定中最重要的影响因素。更为重要的是,该分析框架总结现有的理论方法,通过对不同的理论方法的实质内涵研究并引入不同的数学处理方式,同时揭示了实际企业并购价值确定中的关键变量,即预期在企业价值并购中的主导地位,毋庸置疑,随着中国企业并购市场化进程的不断推进,在企业并购的价值确定中这些重要变量将起到至关重要的作用。本文进一步对所提出的研究企业并购价值的综合分析框架进行了经验研究,也即企业并购效率的测定,本文采用临床诊断的方法,结合现有的方法针对文中提到的企业并购进行了范例式的分析。最后,基于本文的理论分析和实证结论,提出了缩小企业并购价值谬误的相关建议。
After several decades of development, China's M & A market has already poles apart from the original model. However, in the base of rapid development of economic growth and advanced technological means had already highlighted the growing role of context, the recent corporate mergers and acquisitions are often Criticized by the public, on the other hand voice of the loss of state domestic assets and foreign assets buying the domestic assets in a very cheap price which apparent lack of fair has never broken off. Then what is the reason?In addition, although the quantitative and after-effects of research M & A has been explained as an important factor in M & A, but the research has focused on the overall simple data processing. It’s lack of in-depth study the value of the key variables during specific corporate mergers and acquisitions what determining the value of the process and impact of mergers and acquisitions. In view of this, in the base of the previous studies, based on the help of corporate value theory, equilibrium theory, and other modern mainstream economic theory and econometric, mathematical analysis method, I have studied form two levels of including theoretical and empirical sides of the value of M & A, and accordingly to make accurate determination of the value of corporate mergers and acquisitions. In the end, I also have given the rationalize proposal of the value of the mergers and acquisitions of enterprises.
In this paper, first based on the phased and particularity development of Chinese enterprises, in contrast with foreign acquisition history has showed that: Although there are many ways determine the value of the enterprise M & A, but discounted the future value of the enterprise is still value of enterprise M & A. On the basis of this and by comparing the different theories and the value of its real link, I selected the enterprise value of the future and the discount rate as the entry point for research. After continuous in-depth and open theoretical assumptions, I have proposed a comprehensive research enterprise value of the analytical framework of history Contrast-enterprise value of mergers and acquisitions-the value of the calculation and improvements-the expected introduction of uncertainty. And in the final of the paper I also have in-depth conducted the efficiency of M & A. Compared with the existing research, this analytical framework from make up the statistical shortcomings to some extent for a one-sided emphasis on effective after which means that in the future history always is the truth, and highlights the most important factor value in the enterprise M & A. More importantly, the analysis concluded the framework of the existing theory, used the theory of different ways through studying real meaning of different studies and the mathematical approach to reveal the key variables in the actual value of M & A that expectation is in the leading position in the decision of the Enterprise value during mergers and acquisitions. There is no doubt that as the continuous progress of the China's M & A market process, these key variables will play a crucial role in determining the value of corporate mergers and acquisitions.
Further study of this article is analysised by the value of M & A comprehensive analysis framework for empirical research, that is, the efficiency of M & A. In view of this paper using the clinical diagnosis methods and combining the existing methods mentioned in the text of this article, I have analyzed the efficiency of the Enterprise M & A as an example. Finally, based on this paper, the theoretical analysis and empirical conclusions, we have proposed reducing the value of M & A fallacy of the relevant recommendations.
引文
2资料来源:http://www.chinavalue.net/News/NewsShow.aspx?id=2150028
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22奈特《风险、不确定性和利润》(中国人民大学出版社2005年)序言部分
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64在股票价格高估情形下,为了支撑并进一步拉升股票价格,外部资本市场上的投资者、投资银行以及金融分析师等市场主体会给企业管理者施加提高公司业绩的压力。如果管理者能够达到资本市场的预期,那么股票价格会进一步上升,管理者也会得到相应的奖励。如果管理者不能够实现资本市场为之设定的目标,那么股票价格就会下降,管理者的声誉和个人财富都会受损。我们把外部资本市场和企业管理者之间的这种互动机制形象地称为“收益博弈”。
65邹薇,钱雪松,,融资成本、寻租行为和企业内部资本配置,经济研究2005年(5):64-74
68在这里,奈特将事例分为三种不同的概率:(1)先验概率。(2)统计概率。(3)估计。在后面的讨论中,奈特进一步指出,第三种才是不确定的来源,进而在第9章证明他也正是利润的来源。
69见《风险、不确定性和利润》(中国人民大学出版社2005年)第八章,第172-192页
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77巴菲特、坎宁安:《巴菲特致股东的信》[M],陈鑫译,2007年,第164-167页
78案例资料来源于罗伯特·海格斯特姆著作的《沃伦·巴菲特之路》105-297页(清华大学出版社,2007年)和洛文斯坦著作的《一个美国资本家的成长》(海南出版社,2007年)第11-16章。
80关于李嘉诚的案例分析,资料来源分别是陈美华、辛磊著作的《李嘉诚全传》(中国戏剧出版社2005年)和祝春亭著作的《香港商战风云录》(广州出版社,1996年)第375-411页
81资料来源于网络:http://hi.baidu.com/%D4%C6%C4%CF%CE%D4%C1%FA%CF%C8%C9%FA/blog/item/683706b35e9ce3a7d8335a7b.html
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100本部分参考袁显平,柯大钢合著的《长期事件研究方法论———一个综述》
104资料来源:新华网http://news.xinhuanet.com/zhengfu/2005-03/31/content_2768115.htm
105资料来源:新华网http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2006-08/10/content_4944032.htm
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8 M. Scriven, the Exact Role of Value Judgment in Science, E. D. Klemked., Introductory Readings in the Philosophy of Science, New York: Published by Prometheus Books, 1980.
9马克思:《资本论》[M]第三卷下,中央编译局译,人民出版社1975年版,1975年版,第920。
10马克思:《资本论》[M]第二卷,中央编译局译,,人民出版社,1975年版,第63页.
11马克思:《资本论》[M]第三卷上,中央编译局译,,人民出版社.1975年版,第297-298页。
12马克思:《资本论》[M]第三卷上,中央编译局译,,人民出版社,1975年版,第378页。
13马克思:《资本论》[M]第二卷,中央编译局译,,人民出版社, 1975年版,第122页
14马克思:《资本论》[M]第一卷,中央编译局译,人民出版社1975年版,第394页。
15马克思:《资本论》[M]第一卷,中央编译局译,人民出版社1975年版,第218页。
16马克思:《资本论》[M]第一卷,中央编译局译,人民出版社1975年版,第424页
17Irving Fisher:《利息理论》[M],陈彪如译,上海人民出版社1992年,第4页
18Irving Fisher:《利息理论》[M],陈彪如译,上海人民出版社1992年,第3-8页
19Irving Fisher:《利息理论》[M],陈彪如译,上海人民出版社1992年,第9页
20Irving Fisher:《利息理论》[M],陈彪如译,上海人民出版社1992年,第32-35页
21Irving Fisher:《利息理论》[M]第二篇,陈彪如译,上海人民出版社1992年,第49-180页
22奈特《风险、不确定性和利润》(中国人民大学出版社2005年)序言部分
23 Franco Modigliani, Merton H. Miller,Corporate Income Taxes and Cost of Capital: A correction,American Economic Review, Vol. 53, No. 3 (Jun., 1963) , pp. 433-443 Franco Modigliani, Merton H. Miller,The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment ,American Economic Review, Vol. 48, No. 3 (Jun., 1958) , pp. 261-297
27布鲁斯·瓦瑟斯坦:《大交易——兼并与反兼并》,海南出版社,2000年,第53-58页
36弗雷德·R·戴维,《战略管理》,李克宁译,经济科学出版社,1998年
37外部因素评价矩阵(External Factor Evaluation Matrix,EFE矩阵),是一种对外部环境进行分析的工具,
52案例资料来源于网络:http://baike.baidu.com/view/1279675.htm
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54 Myers, C S. 1977. Determinants of corporate borrowing. Journal of financial economics 5:147-175
55 Aghion, P and P Blton. 1992. An incomplete contracts to financial contracting. Review of economic studies, 59:473-494
56 Alchian,A A. 1969. Corporate management and property rights. In H Manne, ed, Economic policy and regulation of corporate securities: 337-360
57 Grossman,S J and O D Hart. 1986. The cost and benefits of ownership: A theory of vertical and lateral integration. Journal of political economics, 94:691-719
58 Hart,O and J Morre. 1990. Property right and the nature of firm. Journal of political economy, 98:1119-1158
59 March, J G and Z Shapira. Managerial perspectives on risk and risk taking. Management science, 1987. 33, pp. 1404-1418
60 Heaton, J B. Managerial optimism and corporate finance. Financial management, 2002Summer:33-45
61 Keating, A scoot. Determinants of divisional performance evaluation practices. Jouranl of accounting﹠ economics, 1997.24:243-273
62 Goldman, Eitan。Organization form, information collection and the value of the firm. Journal of business, 2005. 78:817-839
63 Jensen, M C. The agency costs of overvalued equity and the current state of corporate finance. European financial management, 2004. 10(4):549-565
64在股票价格高估情形下,为了支撑并进一步拉升股票价格,外部资本市场上的投资者、投资银行以及金融分析师等市场主体会给企业管理者施加提高公司业绩的压力。如果管理者能够达到资本市场的预期,那么股票价格会进一步上升,管理者也会得到相应的奖励。如果管理者不能够实现资本市场为之设定的目标,那么股票价格就会下降,管理者的声誉和个人财富都会受损。我们把外部资本市场和企业管理者之间的这种互动机制形象地称为“收益博弈”。
65邹薇,钱雪松,,融资成本、寻租行为和企业内部资本配置,经济研究2005年(5):64-74
68在这里,奈特将事例分为三种不同的概率:(1)先验概率。(2)统计概率。(3)估计。在后面的讨论中,奈特进一步指出,第三种才是不确定的来源,进而在第9章证明他也正是利润的来源。
69见《风险、不确定性和利润》(中国人民大学出版社2005年)第八章,第172-192页
70罗伯特·鲁宾:在不确定的世界[M]前言部分,李晓岗译,中国社科出版社出,2004
77巴菲特、坎宁安:《巴菲特致股东的信》[M],陈鑫译,2007年,第164-167页
78案例资料来源于罗伯特·海格斯特姆著作的《沃伦·巴菲特之路》105-297页(清华大学出版社,2007年)和洛文斯坦著作的《一个美国资本家的成长》(海南出版社,2007年)第11-16章。
80关于李嘉诚的案例分析,资料来源分别是陈美华、辛磊著作的《李嘉诚全传》(中国戏剧出版社2005年)和祝春亭著作的《香港商战风云录》(广州出版社,1996年)第375-411页
81资料来源于网络:http://hi.baidu.com/%D4%C6%C4%CF%CE%D4%C1%FA%CF%C8%C9%FA/blog/item/683706b35e9ce3a7d8335a7b.html
82卡尔·波普(Karl R·Popper),《历史决定论的贫困》自序,杜汝楫,邱仁宗译,华夏出版社,1987年
100本部分参考袁显平,柯大钢合著的《长期事件研究方法论———一个综述》
104资料来源:新华网http://news.xinhuanet.com/zhengfu/2005-03/31/content_2768115.htm
105资料来源:新华网http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2006-08/10/content_4944032.htm
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