积极财政政策研究
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摘要
积极的财政政策是针对宏观经济周期波动政府采取的一系列反周期的财政措施,它被世界各国用于在经济衰退时期刺激消费需求、拉动经济增长。我国已经实施两轮积极的财政政策,1998年为了应对亚洲金融危机带来的影响,国家第一轮实施了积极的财政政策,这一政策一直实施到2004年,随后转变为稳健的财政政策。2008年底我国针对美国次贷危机引起的复杂国际经济形势开始实施新一轮积极财政政策。到2010年,我国积极财政政策对于抑制经济衰退,保持较高经济增长速度起到了至关重要的作用。但是国际经济形势依然不明朗,财政刺激计划在社会产品供给过剩的情形下导致了物价的上涨,于是,现阶段政策一方面需要继续保持经济增长,另一方面需要防止生产过剩再现和通货膨胀、财政赤字扩大等财政风险。同时,随着经济下滑趋势得到稳固,世界各国也都在考虑退出经济刺激计划。在此背景下,我国新一轮积极财政政策的实施面临需要调整的压力,并需要为将来退出铺好道路。鉴于积极财政政策的制定和调整需要综合考虑政策的效应、实施效果和政策风险以及未来发展趋势等因素,本文将对我国积极财政政策的实施情况和政策效应进行研究。
考虑到政策作用有积极的一面也有消极的一面,本文将在分析积极财政政策基本原理和实施情况的基础上,从拉动经济等正效应和带来风险等负效应两个方面研究积极财政政策的政策效应,并检验积极财政政策的政策效果,通过对积极财政政策的研究,理清反周期财政政策的理论基础,总结我国两次实施积极财政政策的经验教训,结合评价积极财政政策的财政风险,提出积极财政政策调整的基本思路及其退出机制,并对新一轮积极财政政策的创新进行讨论,以丰富我国财政理论和政策的内容。
本文首先总结我国两轮积极财政政策的实施与进展,并对两者进行比较分析,为进一步分析积极财政政策的效应和实施政策调整铺下基础。在分析积极财政政策效应时,分别对政策的正效应和负效应进行分析,其中,正效应中分别考虑了政策实施对经济增长、投资增长和消费增长的拉动效应,并且每个效应都对1998年和2008年的政策效应展开讨论,一方面为分析两轮政策效应提供证据,另一方面通过比较也可为新一轮积极财政政策的调整提供参考意见。
为了评价积极财政政策效应的实际效果,本文从乘数效应和挤出效应、李嘉图等价以及自动效果和人为效果等几个方面对积极财政政策的效果进行评价,运用实证分析方法对政策效果进行考察,一方面为新一轮政策提供丰富的理论和现实基础,另一方面也是更加全面地评价积极财政政策的政策功效。
另外,鉴于新一轮积极财政政策中面临新的情况,需要实施调整以从根本上调节国内结构性矛盾、减少对政策调控的依赖和开发国内经济增长的内在动力,本文从政策工具之间、货币政策与财政政策之间协调配合以及政策退出机制等方面进行讨论。
本文基于财政政策的理论基础,针对我国1998年和2008年两轮积极财政政策实施过程,研究了积极财政政策的实施情况和政策效应,主要结论有：
(1)我国1998年和2008年两轮实施的积极财政政策都取得显著效果。两轮积极财政政策,都受到外部因素的强大冲击,都有政府支出的扩张,但是新一轮的积极财政政策不仅扩大政府支出,还实施减税政策,更加注重国内需求、民生工程和经济结构调整,并且积极财政政策在宏观调控中占有主导地位。
(2)积极财政政策在促进经济增长、投资和居民消费方面具有积极效应。第一,积极的财政政策通过增加财政支出和调整财政支出结构发挥了促进经济增长的作用。1998-2003年每一元的政府购买支出,可以拉动GDP增加5.29元,与国外相比,我国的政府支出对经济的拉动作用效率还是较低。2009年新一轮积极财政政策实施过程中,政府支出对进出口的影响是显著的,但是政府支出对于月度的工业产值增长率的影响是不显著的,可能与2009年以来我国的积极财政政策主要投向了基础项目建设和民生项目中有关。第二,1998-2003年间,我国这一期间采用发行国债带动固定资产投资的增加拉动了经济的增长：资本形成对经济增长的贡献率和拉动率在2007-2009年的三年间是上升的,尤其是2009年我国采用发行国债、地方债带动固定资产投资的增加显著的带动了经济的增长。第三,1998-2003年间,积极的财政政策极大地刺激了国内消费需求,但这一期间消费拉动经济增长的作用越来越低。2008年金融危机以来我国通过实施积极财政政策极大地带动了消费需求,对经济增长有明显的作用,政府主要依靠撬动国内经济的需求来带动经济增长,我国这一期间消费拉动经济增长的作用越来越大。2008年底实施积极财政政策后居民消费受到国家民生工程的影响,消费意愿大为增强,积极的财政政策对居民消费的拉动还是很显著的。
(3)我国财政政策效果依赖政府支出,税收对政策效果具有反作用。第一,随着积极财政政策的实施,其效果逐渐减弱,积极财政政策的“紧缩效应”逐渐显露,积极财政政策需要进行转型。第二,积极财政政策的扩张作用主要依赖的是购买支出的人为效果,税收和转移支出的效果刚好被抵消。积极财政政策实施初期的效果很好,随着时间的发展效果就会变弱。积极财政政策的人为效果多为正数,而自动效果多为负数,使得积极财政政策的整体效果大打折扣。第三,对我国财政支出、财政赤字与民间消费之间的关系进行检验后认为李嘉图等价定理在中国不成立。
(4)积极财政政策的持续实施导致财政风险等负效应加大,政府投资对民间投资具有挤出效应。第一,实施积极财政政策期间,我国的赤字规模迅速增加。巨额的财政赤字,可能引发相应的债务风险。第二,政策效用呈现递减效应。我国的国债发行对经济增长的拉动作用在递减,同时,财政政策对民间投资与国内消费刺激效应也在递减。另外,政府投资对民间投资还具有挤出效应。第三,新一轮积极财政带来了通货膨胀压力。另外,由于扩大支出和减少税收的原因,新一轮积极财政政策中地方政府的财政风险加大。
2010年以来,积极财政政策实现经济复苏的目标基本达到,随着财政风险的加大政策效果弱化,政策如何调整从而避免“过早”或者“过晚”带来新的风险是政策制定者必须要考虑的问题。积极财政政策的择机逐步调整,不仅包含四大政策工具的组合优化,还有与货币政策的协调问题；而积极财政政策的退出则需要考虑财政、货币的先后顺序以及财政政策工具的使用,尤其是政府财政支出政策的退出战略。本文给出的建议有：
(一)新一轮积极财政政策的调整
第一,优化结构与政策调整。经济“V”型复苏模式下的积极财政政策是一个扩张性支出措施和调整性支出措施的综合体。这轮积极财政政策要求注重短期“保增长”和长期“调结构”的结合、扩大内需和稳定外需的结合、振兴产业和加强科技支撑的结合、改善民生和加强社会保障体系建设的结合、深化改革与转变发展方式的结合。一是财政支出政策调整,应适当调整财政投资结构,加大对制约经济社会发展薄弱环节的财政投入力度。二是税收政策调整,对现行税制中的不合理环节进行规范和调整,如取消部分高耗能产业的出口退税,加大结构性减税政策力度,结合改革和优化税制,实行结构性减税等方式减轻企业和居民税收负担,促进企业扩大投资,增强居民消费能力。三是完善财政投融资体系、加强公债管理,完善地方债的发行和管理机制。
第二,完善政策带动效应。财政政策应坚持公共财政的方向,通过政策刺激带动消费需求,尤其国内消费需求来缓解这些矛盾。其中,一个重要方面就是通过公共财政制度保障每一个社会成员都能公平享受到基本的公共服务和公共产品,使经济发展的成果转化为保障每一个人的基本发展需求。
(二)新一轮积极财政政策的退出机制
全球性的经济危机注定了在采取退出策略的方式上要采取全球协调的方式,二十国集团、国际货币基金组织及金融稳定委员会将作为退出策略的主要协调者。对于国内经济政策的退出机制,要做到：第一,坚持宽松货币政策先退出。在目前经济形势逐渐变暖的背景下,前期宽松的货币政策无疑为未来的通货膨胀埋下了隐患。因此,未雨绸缪地制定好货币政策的退出机制是各国央行所面临的一个现实问题。第二,缩减政府支出、完善税收调整。为了减少财政风险和配合货币政策的执行,积极的、扩张性的财政政策需要转型甚至退出,财政政策的适时调整和转型是必然的选择,主要的方面就是要缩减政府支出和完善税收政策的调整,一方面控制赤字、增收节支,另一方面调整结构、推进改革。
(三)新一轮积极财政政策的政策创新
2010年国内经济由于财政扩张带来的物价上涨趋势很明显,积极财政政策需要创新,通过调控手段的转变,充分发挥杠杆作用来促使经济结构调整。第一,需求管理与供给管理并重。今后的财政政策应采取需求管理与供给管理并重的策略,支出政策、税收政策和转移支付等政策工具作用的重点应转变到推动经济结构调整、提升人力资本、培育长期增长机制、努力实现公平收入分配等方面。第二,引导社会公众预期。加快以改善民生为重点的社会事业建设,根据社会事业发展规律和公共服务的不同特点,探索有效的财政保障方式,建立健全保障和改善民生的长效机制,以此为基础,稳定和改善居民消费预期,促进即期消费,拉动消费需求带动经济长期发展。
Active fiscal policy is composed of a series of counter-cycality fiscal measures took by Government for smoothing macroeconomic cycle volatility. It has been used to stimulate the demand of consumer and to pull economy growth by the countries in the world. China has taken active fiscal policy twice. In 1998, to answer the effect of Asia finance crisis, active fiscal policy was first took by Government, which has been used until 2004 and changed to sound fiscal policy. In 2008 later, under the complex situation aroused by subprime crisis, new active fiscal policy was took again. In 2010, Chinese active fiscal policy has played a key role in controlling economy recession and keeping the high growth rate of economy. However, the trend of world economy is still not bright, and the fiscal stimulate plan has result in the rise of price under the situation of social production supply superfluous. So now, on the one hand, the policy has to continue to keep the growth of economy; on the other hand, the policy has to avoid the overproduction emersion and the risk of inflation and fiscal deficit expand. At the same time, following that the recession trend of world economy has been mitigated, the exit plan has been in the plan. Under that background, the implement of new active fiscal policy is facing the pressure of adjust, and extend the path to exit. Considering that the establishment and adjust for active fiscal policy has to refer to the effect, the impact and the risk of policy and the trend of future development, this paper would study the implement and the effect of Chinese active fiscal policy.
In view of the positive and negative effect of active fiscal policy, this paper would study the effect of active fiscal policy from two aspects based on analysis of the principle and implement of active fiscal policy. The first aspect is positive effect, such as stimulating the economy growth, while the second is negative effect, such as taking the risk. Then, the effect of active fiscal policy is tested, and through the study on active fiscal policy, the principle of counter-cycality fiscal policy is hackled. This paper has sum up the experiences and lessons of two implements of active fiscal policy, combining with the appraising the risk of active fiscal policy, and brought the basic path to adjust the policy and the exit mechanize forward. And more, the innovation of new active fiscal policy is also been discussed, so to enrich the contents of the theory and the policy of fiscal.
At first, the implements and the evolvements of two fiscal policies is sum-up and compared, which lays a foundation for the next analysis for the effect and the adjustment of policy. When the effect of active fiscal policy is analyzed, the positive and negative effects are discussed respectively. There, the positive effects include the pull effects on economy growth, investment growth and consume growth, which is discussed for 1998 and 2008 policy implement respectively. On the one hand, this can provide the evidences to analyze the effect of policy; on the other hand, this can provide the referred advices to adjust the new policy.
To appraise the real effect of active fiscal policy, the impact of active fiscal policy is studied from several aspects, such as multiplier effect, crowding out effect, Ricardo Equivalence, automatism impact and artificial impact. The empirical analysis method is used to review the impact of active fiscal policy, so to provide the theory and reality bases for new policy, and to complementally appraise the efficacy of active fiscal policy.
In addition, in view of the new situation in the process of new policy, while the adjustment is need to adjust the structure conflict in the country, to reduce the dependence on the policy rectify and to exploder the internal driver of economy growth, this paper discuses some problems, such as harmony between the policy tools and harmony between monetary and fiscal policies and the exit mechanism.
Based on the theory of fiscal policy, this paper has study the implement and effect of active fiscal policy, aiming at the two implement processes in 1998 and 2008. The main results include:
(1) The effects of two implements of active fiscal policy in 1998 and 2008 are remarkable. Both two implements were facing strong extern shocks and included Government expend expand. But, the new policy still actualized tax-reduce policy, and took more attentions on internal demand, project for people's well-being and adjustment for economic structure, while the active fiscal policy has the dominant status in the process.
(2) Active fiscal policy has the positive effect on the economy growth, investment and denizen consumption. First, active fiscal policy has played a role in boost economy growth by increasing fiscal expenditure and adjusting the structure of expenditure. One RMB of government expenditures can draw 5.29 RMB GDP growths in 1998-2003. Comparing with other countries, the efficiency of government expenditure to draw economy is still lower. In the process of new policy since 2009, government expenditure have taken notable effect on export and import, but not taken notable industry produce growth rate. It may be due to that the government expenditures have been mostly used to build foundation projects and project for people's well-being since 2009. Second, fiscal pulls economy growth by issuing treasury to draw the increase in fixed asset investment between 1998 and 2003. The contribution ratio and draw ratio of Capitalization to economy growth are increasing between 2007 and 2009. Specially, in 2009, government used issued treasury and local government bonds to increase fixed asset investments, so as to draw economy growth. Third, active fiscal policy have prodigious activated internal consume demand between 1998 and 2003, but the effect of consume on economy growth was decreasing. Since the financial crisis in 2008, Chinese active fiscal policy have stimulated economy growth by drawing consume, while the effect of consume on economy is increasing. After the implement of new active fiscal policy in 2008 later, denizen consume, affected by projects for people's well-being, had more willing to consume, and the drawing effect of active fiscal policy on denizen consume is notable.
(3) The effect of fiscal policy in China depended on government expenditure, and the tax has counteractive on the effect of policy. First, the effect of active fiscal policy has been decreasing after its implement, the crowing out effect has been taking on, and the adjustment of policy is needed. Second, the expand effect of active fiscal policy mainly dependents on the artificial effect of government purchase expenditure, and the effects of tax and transfer payout just counteract. The initial effect of active fiscal policy is strong, but declines down with time going. The artificial effect of policy most is positive, while the automotive effect of government fiscal policy most is negative, which lower the integral effect of active fiscal policy. Third, Ricardo Equivalence does not hold on in China, following the testing on the relationship between fiscal expenditure, fiscal deficit and denizen consume.
(4) The persisting implement of active fiscal policy caused the fiscal risk increasing, and government expenditure had the crowding out effect on private investment. First, during the period of implement of active fiscal policy, the size of fiscal deficit is increasing. Enormous fiscal deficit would result in bond risk. Second, the avail of policy has taking descending effect. The effect of Chinese issued treasury on the economy growth is decreasing, while the stimulation effect of fiscal policy on private investment and internal consume is also decreasing. In addition, government investment had the crowding effect on the private investment. Third, new fiscal policy had brought the pressure of inflation. And more, because the expand of expenditure and decline of tax, the risk of local government is increasing in the implement process of new active fiscal policy.
Since 2010, the object of active fiscal policy to resuscitate economy has been achieved. With the risk of fiscal increasing and the effect of policy declining, the problem that how to adjust the policy and avoid too early or too late to exit is necessary to be consider for policy makers. The gradual adjustment of active fiscal policy, not only includes portfolio optimization of four fiscal tools, but also includes harmonize between fiscal and monetary policies. The exit of active fiscal policy should consider the order of fiscal and monetary policies and the use of the tools of fiscal policy, special the stratagem for exit. The advices given by this paper include:
(1)The adjustment of new active fiscal policy
First, structures optimization and policy adjustment. The active fiscal policy should be, under the pattern of'V for economy resuscitate, a synthesizer which is composed of expenditure expand policy and expenditure adjustment policy. This new fiscal policy should forced on the integration of keeping economy growth short-term and adjusting structure long-term, the integration of expanding internal demand and stabilizing external demand, the integration of vitalizing industry and enhancing the technologically support, the integration of improving people's well-being and enhancing the social security system construct, and the integration of deepening reform and transforming the manner of development. In the process of adjusting the fiscal expenditure structure, the structure of government investment should be adjusted and the input to thin taches which restricts the development of economy and social should increase. In the process of adjusting the tax, the irrational taches in the tax system should be regulated and adjusted, such as cancelling the export rebates to high energy-cost industry, enhancing the power to reduce structurally tax, reforming and optimizing tax mechanism. Implement the reduce tax policy can lighten the firms and denizens'burden, and promote the firms to invest and the denizen to consume. Final, it is necessary to improve fiscal fiance and investment system, enhance the treasury management, and perfect the issuing and management mechanism of local government debt.
Second, it is to improving the driving effect of fiscal policy. Fiscal policy should persist in the way of public fiscal, and relieve the conflicts in the social by using policy to draw consume demand, special the internal consume demand. Among which, one important aspect is guarantee every social member enjoy the basic public service and public good through public fiscal system, and transform the fruit of economy development into the basic development requirement.
(2)The exit mechanism of new active fiscal policy
The global economic crisis destines the exit strategy, which have to take the global concerted manner. Group 20, IMF and financial stability committee should be the coordinators. Referring to the exit mechanism of internal economic policy, it should do that:first, the loose monetary policy should be exited firstly. Under the background that the trend of economy is becoming to be fine, the loose monetary policy in prior period would be the root of future inflation. So, constituting fine monetary policy exit mechanism is a real problem for center bank of countries in the world. Second, it should reduce government expenditure and improve tax adjustment. To reduce the fiscal risk and to cooperate with the implement of monetary policy, the active, expanding fiscal policy should be transformed and exited. Timely adjustment and transformation of fiscal policy are necessary choices. The main aspect is to reduce government expenditure and improve tax adjustment: on the one hand, it should control fiscal deficit, increase income and reduce expenditure; on the other hand, it should adjust expenditure structure and push reformation.
(3)The policy innovation of new active fiscal policy
The price has increased clearly in 2010, which is induced by fiscal expand. The active fiscal policy requires the innovation and adequately plays the leverage role to spur the economic structure adjustment through the change of control instrument. First, it should take both demand and supply managements at the same time. The future fiscal policy should include demand and supply management instruments, and the keystones of policy tools, such as expenditure policy, tax policy and transference payment, should be changed into impulse the economic structure adjustment, advancing human capital, cultivating long-term growth mechanism and struggling realizing income allocation fairly. Second, the policy should lead the public expectation. The government should expedite the social projects construction which takes the improvement of people's well-being as the keystone. In the light of the law of social projects development and different characters of public services, the government should explore effective fiscal guarantee manner, and found healthy long-term mechanism to improve people's well-being, so as to stability and reform public consume expectation, accelerate the spot consume, and drive the economy development for long-term by drawing consume demand.
考虑到政策作用有积极的一面也有消极的一面,本文将在分析积极财政政策基本原理和实施情况的基础上,从拉动经济等正效应和带来风险等负效应两个方面研究积极财政政策的政策效应,并检验积极财政政策的政策效果,通过对积极财政政策的研究,理清反周期财政政策的理论基础,总结我国两次实施积极财政政策的经验教训,结合评价积极财政政策的财政风险,提出积极财政政策调整的基本思路及其退出机制,并对新一轮积极财政政策的创新进行讨论,以丰富我国财政理论和政策的内容。
本文首先总结我国两轮积极财政政策的实施与进展,并对两者进行比较分析,为进一步分析积极财政政策的效应和实施政策调整铺下基础。在分析积极财政政策效应时,分别对政策的正效应和负效应进行分析,其中,正效应中分别考虑了政策实施对经济增长、投资增长和消费增长的拉动效应,并且每个效应都对1998年和2008年的政策效应展开讨论,一方面为分析两轮政策效应提供证据,另一方面通过比较也可为新一轮积极财政政策的调整提供参考意见。
为了评价积极财政政策效应的实际效果,本文从乘数效应和挤出效应、李嘉图等价以及自动效果和人为效果等几个方面对积极财政政策的效果进行评价,运用实证分析方法对政策效果进行考察,一方面为新一轮政策提供丰富的理论和现实基础,另一方面也是更加全面地评价积极财政政策的政策功效。
另外,鉴于新一轮积极财政政策中面临新的情况,需要实施调整以从根本上调节国内结构性矛盾、减少对政策调控的依赖和开发国内经济增长的内在动力,本文从政策工具之间、货币政策与财政政策之间协调配合以及政策退出机制等方面进行讨论。
本文基于财政政策的理论基础,针对我国1998年和2008年两轮积极财政政策实施过程,研究了积极财政政策的实施情况和政策效应,主要结论有：
(1)我国1998年和2008年两轮实施的积极财政政策都取得显著效果。两轮积极财政政策,都受到外部因素的强大冲击,都有政府支出的扩张,但是新一轮的积极财政政策不仅扩大政府支出,还实施减税政策,更加注重国内需求、民生工程和经济结构调整,并且积极财政政策在宏观调控中占有主导地位。
(2)积极财政政策在促进经济增长、投资和居民消费方面具有积极效应。第一,积极的财政政策通过增加财政支出和调整财政支出结构发挥了促进经济增长的作用。1998-2003年每一元的政府购买支出,可以拉动GDP增加5.29元,与国外相比,我国的政府支出对经济的拉动作用效率还是较低。2009年新一轮积极财政政策实施过程中,政府支出对进出口的影响是显著的,但是政府支出对于月度的工业产值增长率的影响是不显著的,可能与2009年以来我国的积极财政政策主要投向了基础项目建设和民生项目中有关。第二,1998-2003年间,我国这一期间采用发行国债带动固定资产投资的增加拉动了经济的增长：资本形成对经济增长的贡献率和拉动率在2007-2009年的三年间是上升的,尤其是2009年我国采用发行国债、地方债带动固定资产投资的增加显著的带动了经济的增长。第三,1998-2003年间,积极的财政政策极大地刺激了国内消费需求,但这一期间消费拉动经济增长的作用越来越低。2008年金融危机以来我国通过实施积极财政政策极大地带动了消费需求,对经济增长有明显的作用,政府主要依靠撬动国内经济的需求来带动经济增长,我国这一期间消费拉动经济增长的作用越来越大。2008年底实施积极财政政策后居民消费受到国家民生工程的影响,消费意愿大为增强,积极的财政政策对居民消费的拉动还是很显著的。
(3)我国财政政策效果依赖政府支出,税收对政策效果具有反作用。第一,随着积极财政政策的实施,其效果逐渐减弱,积极财政政策的“紧缩效应”逐渐显露,积极财政政策需要进行转型。第二,积极财政政策的扩张作用主要依赖的是购买支出的人为效果,税收和转移支出的效果刚好被抵消。积极财政政策实施初期的效果很好,随着时间的发展效果就会变弱。积极财政政策的人为效果多为正数,而自动效果多为负数,使得积极财政政策的整体效果大打折扣。第三,对我国财政支出、财政赤字与民间消费之间的关系进行检验后认为李嘉图等价定理在中国不成立。
(4)积极财政政策的持续实施导致财政风险等负效应加大,政府投资对民间投资具有挤出效应。第一,实施积极财政政策期间,我国的赤字规模迅速增加。巨额的财政赤字,可能引发相应的债务风险。第二,政策效用呈现递减效应。我国的国债发行对经济增长的拉动作用在递减,同时,财政政策对民间投资与国内消费刺激效应也在递减。另外,政府投资对民间投资还具有挤出效应。第三,新一轮积极财政带来了通货膨胀压力。另外,由于扩大支出和减少税收的原因,新一轮积极财政政策中地方政府的财政风险加大。
2010年以来,积极财政政策实现经济复苏的目标基本达到,随着财政风险的加大政策效果弱化,政策如何调整从而避免“过早”或者“过晚”带来新的风险是政策制定者必须要考虑的问题。积极财政政策的择机逐步调整,不仅包含四大政策工具的组合优化,还有与货币政策的协调问题；而积极财政政策的退出则需要考虑财政、货币的先后顺序以及财政政策工具的使用,尤其是政府财政支出政策的退出战略。本文给出的建议有：
(一)新一轮积极财政政策的调整
第一,优化结构与政策调整。经济“V”型复苏模式下的积极财政政策是一个扩张性支出措施和调整性支出措施的综合体。这轮积极财政政策要求注重短期“保增长”和长期“调结构”的结合、扩大内需和稳定外需的结合、振兴产业和加强科技支撑的结合、改善民生和加强社会保障体系建设的结合、深化改革与转变发展方式的结合。一是财政支出政策调整,应适当调整财政投资结构,加大对制约经济社会发展薄弱环节的财政投入力度。二是税收政策调整,对现行税制中的不合理环节进行规范和调整,如取消部分高耗能产业的出口退税,加大结构性减税政策力度,结合改革和优化税制,实行结构性减税等方式减轻企业和居民税收负担,促进企业扩大投资,增强居民消费能力。三是完善财政投融资体系、加强公债管理,完善地方债的发行和管理机制。
第二,完善政策带动效应。财政政策应坚持公共财政的方向,通过政策刺激带动消费需求,尤其国内消费需求来缓解这些矛盾。其中,一个重要方面就是通过公共财政制度保障每一个社会成员都能公平享受到基本的公共服务和公共产品,使经济发展的成果转化为保障每一个人的基本发展需求。
(二)新一轮积极财政政策的退出机制
全球性的经济危机注定了在采取退出策略的方式上要采取全球协调的方式,二十国集团、国际货币基金组织及金融稳定委员会将作为退出策略的主要协调者。对于国内经济政策的退出机制,要做到：第一,坚持宽松货币政策先退出。在目前经济形势逐渐变暖的背景下,前期宽松的货币政策无疑为未来的通货膨胀埋下了隐患。因此,未雨绸缪地制定好货币政策的退出机制是各国央行所面临的一个现实问题。第二,缩减政府支出、完善税收调整。为了减少财政风险和配合货币政策的执行,积极的、扩张性的财政政策需要转型甚至退出,财政政策的适时调整和转型是必然的选择,主要的方面就是要缩减政府支出和完善税收政策的调整,一方面控制赤字、增收节支,另一方面调整结构、推进改革。
(三)新一轮积极财政政策的政策创新
2010年国内经济由于财政扩张带来的物价上涨趋势很明显,积极财政政策需要创新,通过调控手段的转变,充分发挥杠杆作用来促使经济结构调整。第一,需求管理与供给管理并重。今后的财政政策应采取需求管理与供给管理并重的策略,支出政策、税收政策和转移支付等政策工具作用的重点应转变到推动经济结构调整、提升人力资本、培育长期增长机制、努力实现公平收入分配等方面。第二,引导社会公众预期。加快以改善民生为重点的社会事业建设,根据社会事业发展规律和公共服务的不同特点,探索有效的财政保障方式,建立健全保障和改善民生的长效机制,以此为基础,稳定和改善居民消费预期,促进即期消费,拉动消费需求带动经济长期发展。
Active fiscal policy is composed of a series of counter-cycality fiscal measures took by Government for smoothing macroeconomic cycle volatility. It has been used to stimulate the demand of consumer and to pull economy growth by the countries in the world. China has taken active fiscal policy twice. In 1998, to answer the effect of Asia finance crisis, active fiscal policy was first took by Government, which has been used until 2004 and changed to sound fiscal policy. In 2008 later, under the complex situation aroused by subprime crisis, new active fiscal policy was took again. In 2010, Chinese active fiscal policy has played a key role in controlling economy recession and keeping the high growth rate of economy. However, the trend of world economy is still not bright, and the fiscal stimulate plan has result in the rise of price under the situation of social production supply superfluous. So now, on the one hand, the policy has to continue to keep the growth of economy; on the other hand, the policy has to avoid the overproduction emersion and the risk of inflation and fiscal deficit expand. At the same time, following that the recession trend of world economy has been mitigated, the exit plan has been in the plan. Under that background, the implement of new active fiscal policy is facing the pressure of adjust, and extend the path to exit. Considering that the establishment and adjust for active fiscal policy has to refer to the effect, the impact and the risk of policy and the trend of future development, this paper would study the implement and the effect of Chinese active fiscal policy.
In view of the positive and negative effect of active fiscal policy, this paper would study the effect of active fiscal policy from two aspects based on analysis of the principle and implement of active fiscal policy. The first aspect is positive effect, such as stimulating the economy growth, while the second is negative effect, such as taking the risk. Then, the effect of active fiscal policy is tested, and through the study on active fiscal policy, the principle of counter-cycality fiscal policy is hackled. This paper has sum up the experiences and lessons of two implements of active fiscal policy, combining with the appraising the risk of active fiscal policy, and brought the basic path to adjust the policy and the exit mechanize forward. And more, the innovation of new active fiscal policy is also been discussed, so to enrich the contents of the theory and the policy of fiscal.
At first, the implements and the evolvements of two fiscal policies is sum-up and compared, which lays a foundation for the next analysis for the effect and the adjustment of policy. When the effect of active fiscal policy is analyzed, the positive and negative effects are discussed respectively. There, the positive effects include the pull effects on economy growth, investment growth and consume growth, which is discussed for 1998 and 2008 policy implement respectively. On the one hand, this can provide the evidences to analyze the effect of policy; on the other hand, this can provide the referred advices to adjust the new policy.
To appraise the real effect of active fiscal policy, the impact of active fiscal policy is studied from several aspects, such as multiplier effect, crowding out effect, Ricardo Equivalence, automatism impact and artificial impact. The empirical analysis method is used to review the impact of active fiscal policy, so to provide the theory and reality bases for new policy, and to complementally appraise the efficacy of active fiscal policy.
In addition, in view of the new situation in the process of new policy, while the adjustment is need to adjust the structure conflict in the country, to reduce the dependence on the policy rectify and to exploder the internal driver of economy growth, this paper discuses some problems, such as harmony between the policy tools and harmony between monetary and fiscal policies and the exit mechanism.
Based on the theory of fiscal policy, this paper has study the implement and effect of active fiscal policy, aiming at the two implement processes in 1998 and 2008. The main results include:
(1) The effects of two implements of active fiscal policy in 1998 and 2008 are remarkable. Both two implements were facing strong extern shocks and included Government expend expand. But, the new policy still actualized tax-reduce policy, and took more attentions on internal demand, project for people's well-being and adjustment for economic structure, while the active fiscal policy has the dominant status in the process.
(2) Active fiscal policy has the positive effect on the economy growth, investment and denizen consumption. First, active fiscal policy has played a role in boost economy growth by increasing fiscal expenditure and adjusting the structure of expenditure. One RMB of government expenditures can draw 5.29 RMB GDP growths in 1998-2003. Comparing with other countries, the efficiency of government expenditure to draw economy is still lower. In the process of new policy since 2009, government expenditure have taken notable effect on export and import, but not taken notable industry produce growth rate. It may be due to that the government expenditures have been mostly used to build foundation projects and project for people's well-being since 2009. Second, fiscal pulls economy growth by issuing treasury to draw the increase in fixed asset investment between 1998 and 2003. The contribution ratio and draw ratio of Capitalization to economy growth are increasing between 2007 and 2009. Specially, in 2009, government used issued treasury and local government bonds to increase fixed asset investments, so as to draw economy growth. Third, active fiscal policy have prodigious activated internal consume demand between 1998 and 2003, but the effect of consume on economy growth was decreasing. Since the financial crisis in 2008, Chinese active fiscal policy have stimulated economy growth by drawing consume, while the effect of consume on economy is increasing. After the implement of new active fiscal policy in 2008 later, denizen consume, affected by projects for people's well-being, had more willing to consume, and the drawing effect of active fiscal policy on denizen consume is notable.
(3) The effect of fiscal policy in China depended on government expenditure, and the tax has counteractive on the effect of policy. First, the effect of active fiscal policy has been decreasing after its implement, the crowing out effect has been taking on, and the adjustment of policy is needed. Second, the expand effect of active fiscal policy mainly dependents on the artificial effect of government purchase expenditure, and the effects of tax and transfer payout just counteract. The initial effect of active fiscal policy is strong, but declines down with time going. The artificial effect of policy most is positive, while the automotive effect of government fiscal policy most is negative, which lower the integral effect of active fiscal policy. Third, Ricardo Equivalence does not hold on in China, following the testing on the relationship between fiscal expenditure, fiscal deficit and denizen consume.
(4) The persisting implement of active fiscal policy caused the fiscal risk increasing, and government expenditure had the crowding out effect on private investment. First, during the period of implement of active fiscal policy, the size of fiscal deficit is increasing. Enormous fiscal deficit would result in bond risk. Second, the avail of policy has taking descending effect. The effect of Chinese issued treasury on the economy growth is decreasing, while the stimulation effect of fiscal policy on private investment and internal consume is also decreasing. In addition, government investment had the crowding effect on the private investment. Third, new fiscal policy had brought the pressure of inflation. And more, because the expand of expenditure and decline of tax, the risk of local government is increasing in the implement process of new active fiscal policy.
Since 2010, the object of active fiscal policy to resuscitate economy has been achieved. With the risk of fiscal increasing and the effect of policy declining, the problem that how to adjust the policy and avoid too early or too late to exit is necessary to be consider for policy makers. The gradual adjustment of active fiscal policy, not only includes portfolio optimization of four fiscal tools, but also includes harmonize between fiscal and monetary policies. The exit of active fiscal policy should consider the order of fiscal and monetary policies and the use of the tools of fiscal policy, special the stratagem for exit. The advices given by this paper include:
(1)The adjustment of new active fiscal policy
First, structures optimization and policy adjustment. The active fiscal policy should be, under the pattern of'V for economy resuscitate, a synthesizer which is composed of expenditure expand policy and expenditure adjustment policy. This new fiscal policy should forced on the integration of keeping economy growth short-term and adjusting structure long-term, the integration of expanding internal demand and stabilizing external demand, the integration of vitalizing industry and enhancing the technologically support, the integration of improving people's well-being and enhancing the social security system construct, and the integration of deepening reform and transforming the manner of development. In the process of adjusting the fiscal expenditure structure, the structure of government investment should be adjusted and the input to thin taches which restricts the development of economy and social should increase. In the process of adjusting the tax, the irrational taches in the tax system should be regulated and adjusted, such as cancelling the export rebates to high energy-cost industry, enhancing the power to reduce structurally tax, reforming and optimizing tax mechanism. Implement the reduce tax policy can lighten the firms and denizens'burden, and promote the firms to invest and the denizen to consume. Final, it is necessary to improve fiscal fiance and investment system, enhance the treasury management, and perfect the issuing and management mechanism of local government debt.
Second, it is to improving the driving effect of fiscal policy. Fiscal policy should persist in the way of public fiscal, and relieve the conflicts in the social by using policy to draw consume demand, special the internal consume demand. Among which, one important aspect is guarantee every social member enjoy the basic public service and public good through public fiscal system, and transform the fruit of economy development into the basic development requirement.
(2)The exit mechanism of new active fiscal policy
The global economic crisis destines the exit strategy, which have to take the global concerted manner. Group 20, IMF and financial stability committee should be the coordinators. Referring to the exit mechanism of internal economic policy, it should do that:first, the loose monetary policy should be exited firstly. Under the background that the trend of economy is becoming to be fine, the loose monetary policy in prior period would be the root of future inflation. So, constituting fine monetary policy exit mechanism is a real problem for center bank of countries in the world. Second, it should reduce government expenditure and improve tax adjustment. To reduce the fiscal risk and to cooperate with the implement of monetary policy, the active, expanding fiscal policy should be transformed and exited. Timely adjustment and transformation of fiscal policy are necessary choices. The main aspect is to reduce government expenditure and improve tax adjustment: on the one hand, it should control fiscal deficit, increase income and reduce expenditure; on the other hand, it should adjust expenditure structure and push reformation.
(3)The policy innovation of new active fiscal policy
The price has increased clearly in 2010, which is induced by fiscal expand. The active fiscal policy requires the innovation and adequately plays the leverage role to spur the economic structure adjustment through the change of control instrument. First, it should take both demand and supply managements at the same time. The future fiscal policy should include demand and supply management instruments, and the keystones of policy tools, such as expenditure policy, tax policy and transference payment, should be changed into impulse the economic structure adjustment, advancing human capital, cultivating long-term growth mechanism and struggling realizing income allocation fairly. Second, the policy should lead the public expectation. The government should expedite the social projects construction which takes the improvement of people's well-being as the keystone. In the light of the law of social projects development and different characters of public services, the government should explore effective fiscal guarantee manner, and found healthy long-term mechanism to improve people's well-being, so as to stability and reform public consume expectation, accelerate the spot consume, and drive the economy development for long-term by drawing consume demand.
引文
①叶振鹏,2002,积极财政政策：理论思考与政策选择,经济研究参考,第30期
①国家计委宏观经济研究院课题组,《积极财政政策暂不宜淡出》,《中国经济时报》,2001年7月5日。
②余永定：《财政稳定问题研究的一个理论框架》,《世界经济》,2000年第6期。
①马拴友,2001,《中国公共部门债务和赤字的可持续性分析》,《经济研究》第8期。
②张焕明,2003,我国赤字财政的可持续性的实证分析,财经研究,3
①刘刚强、姚俊,2002,则认为积极财政政策的风险类型有4个：债务风险、财政支出风险、通胀风险和“挤出效应”风险。见“积极财政政策与财政风险问题分析”,《经济问题探索》2002年第7期。
②杨志安,2002,积极财政政策要防范财政风险,辽宁大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2002年7月
①萨缪尔森和诺德豪斯,1999,经济学,第361页,华夏出版社
①关于1998-2003年间的积极财政政策背景和实施情况,详细内容可以参考：1,中国社会科学院财政与贸易经济研究所,中国财政政策年回顾—从“适度从紧”财政政策到积极财政政策,经济研究参考,2004(2)；2,贾康,1998年以来：从积极的财政政策到稳健的财政政策及公共财政制度建设,铜陵学院学报,2008(1)。
①本节的内容主要参考：财政部财政科学研究所“我国宏观经济与财政政策分析”课题组,2008年我国宏观经济与财政政策分析报告,经济研究参考,2009年第12期。
①贾康,关于实施积极财政政策的要领,经济研究参考,2009,1
①贾康、刘薇,积极财政政策的理论与实践,中共中央党校学报,2009,2
②高培勇,新一轮积极财政政策：进程盘点与走势前瞻,财贸经济,2010,1
①张爱龙,2003,我国积极财政政策风险实证分析,中央财经大学学报,2003,8
①对第一阶段积极财政政策的边际效应递减以及负面效应分析可以参考：闫坤,积极财政政策与通货膨胀关系研究,财贸经济,2002,4
[1]安体富,2002,当前世界减税趋势与中国税收政策取向[J].经济研究,2
[2]安体富,2003,积极财政政策“淡出”的必要性、条件与对策,税务研究,第11期
[3]财政部财政科学研究所“我国宏观经济与财政政策分析”课题组,2008年我国宏观经济与财政政策分析报告,经济研究参考,2009年第12期。
[4]陈华,2010,我国经济刺激计划退出时机、路径与政策着力点,地方财政研究,2010.1
[5]丛明,2003,中国的经济财政政策与财政风险评估,中国经济社会论坛,2月
[6]戴园晨, “投资乘数失灵”带来的困惑与思索[J].经济研究,1999,(8).
[7]邓金堂、连建辉、王雪苓,1998-2001年积极财政政策效果评析,当代财经,2002,4,
[8]高长春、蒋德嵩,中国积极财政政策效应分析,哈尔滨工业大学学报(社会科学版),2002,6,
[9]高培勇,新一轮积极财政政策：进程盘点与走势前瞻,财贸经济,2010,1
[10]龚刚,2006,积极财政政策宏观经济效益分析——基于宏观计量模型的研究,《数量经济技术经济研究》,第12期,
[11]郭庆旺,2004,《积极财政政策及其与货币政策配合研究》,中国人民大学出版社
[12]郭庆旺,2007,《积极财政政策效果及淡出策略研究》,中国人民大学出版社
[13]郭庆旺,贾俊雪,积极财政政策的全要素生产率增长效应,中国人民大学学报2005年第4期,
[14]郭庆旺、吕冰洋,何乘才,2004,积极财政政策的乘数效应,财政研究,2004,
[15]国家计委宏观经济研究院课题组,《积极财政政策暂不宜淡出》,《中国经济时报》,2001年7月5日。
[16]黄凤羽、关飞,新一轮积极财政政策的风险防范,经济研究参考,2009,66期
[17]贾康,1998年以来：从积极的财政政策到稳健的财政政策及公共财政制度建设,铜陵学院学报,2008(1)。
[18]贾康,关于实施积极财政政策的要领,经济研究参考,2009,01
[19]贾康、刘薇,积极财政政策的理论与实践,中共中央党校学报,2009年2月
[20]李生祥,丛树海,中国财政政策理论乘数和实际乘数效应研究,财经研究,2004,1,
[21]梁学平,2003,关于积极财政政策逐步淡出问题的探讨,山东财政学院学报(双月刊),2003年第3期
[22]刘成,积极财政政策：淡出还是继续[J].宏观经济研究,2003,(1)
[23]刘刚强、姚俊,2002,积极财政政策与财政风险问题分析,经济问题探索,第7期
[24]刘溶沧,马拴友,赤字、国债与经济增长关系的实证分析--兼评积极财政政策是否有挤出效应,经济研究,2001,2,
[25]马拴友,2001,中国公共部门债务和赤字的可持续性分析,经济研究,第8期
[26]马拴友,2002,积极财政政策评价与展望[J].管理世界,5
[27]毛夏鸾、任丽萍,实施积极财政政策的理论与效应评价,税务研究,2009,12,
[28]苗永旺,王亮亮,2010,全球金融危机经济刺激方案的退出策略：历史经验与现实选择,国际金融研究,第2期
[29]邱华炳,2002,积极财政政策：理论、实践与政策调整,财经问题研究,2002.5
[30]史永东,1999,中国转轨时期财政政策效应的实证分析,经济研究,第2期
[31]田棠杰,近年来财政扩张挤出效应的实证分析[J].财贸研究,2002,(3)
[32]王磊,2003,财政风险与积极财政政策的可持续性分析,山西财政税务专科学校学报,2003年12月
[33]王美涵,积极财政政策的风险与对策研究[J].浙江社会科学,2002,2,
[34]王潼,2003,我国积极财政政策简明仿真模型,中国软科学,2003年第8期
[35]王雪标,王志强,《财政政策,金融政策与协整分析》,东北财经大学出版社,2001
[36]武彦民,我国积极财政政策实施前后财政风险的变动分析,财贸经济,2007,12
[37]薛菁,积极财政政策对地方政府财力的影响及对策,求实,2009,10
[38]闫坤,积极财政政策与通货膨胀关系研究,财贸经济,2002,4
[39]阎坤,2002,积极财政政策与通货膨胀关系研究, 《财贸经济》2002年第4期,
[40]杨俊,王燕,积极财政政策与私人投资关系的区域差异———基于中国东、中、西部面板数据的检验与分析, 《财经科学》2007/5,
[41]杨志安,2002,积极财政政策要防范财政风险,辽宁大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2002年7月
[42]叶文辉,楼东伟,中国财政政策的有效性分析—基于金融危机的背景,山西 财经大学学报,2010年5月
[43]叶燕斐,三年积极财政政策的扩张和分配效果分析,统计研究,2002年第9期
[44]叶振鹏,2002,积极财政政策：理论思考与政策选择,经济研究参考,第30期
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[46]余永定,2000,《财政稳定问题研究的一个理论框架》,《世界经济》,第6期。
[47]詹正华,2002,积极财政政策淡出的途径与方式研究,当代财经,2002年第11
[48]张爱龙,2003,我国积极财政政策风险实证分析,中央财经大学学报,2003,8
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[50]张春霖,2000,如何评估我国政府债务的可持续性?,经济研究,第2期
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[52]张雷宝、胡志文,中国财政风险两大警戒线的测算研究,财经论丛,2009年7月,
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[54]中国社会科学院财贸经济研究所课题组,积极的财政政策对中国经济增长的效应,经济学家,2003年4期,
[55]中国社会科学院财政与贸易经济研究所,中国财政政策年回顾—从“适度从紧”财政政策到积极财政政策,经济研究参考,2004(2)
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①国家计委宏观经济研究院课题组,《积极财政政策暂不宜淡出》,《中国经济时报》,2001年7月5日。
②余永定：《财政稳定问题研究的一个理论框架》,《世界经济》,2000年第6期。
①马拴友,2001,《中国公共部门债务和赤字的可持续性分析》,《经济研究》第8期。
②张焕明,2003,我国赤字财政的可持续性的实证分析,财经研究,3
①刘刚强、姚俊,2002,则认为积极财政政策的风险类型有4个：债务风险、财政支出风险、通胀风险和“挤出效应”风险。见“积极财政政策与财政风险问题分析”,《经济问题探索》2002年第7期。
②杨志安,2002,积极财政政策要防范财政风险,辽宁大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2002年7月
①萨缪尔森和诺德豪斯,1999,经济学,第361页,华夏出版社
①关于1998-2003年间的积极财政政策背景和实施情况,详细内容可以参考：1,中国社会科学院财政与贸易经济研究所,中国财政政策年回顾—从“适度从紧”财政政策到积极财政政策,经济研究参考,2004(2)；2,贾康,1998年以来：从积极的财政政策到稳健的财政政策及公共财政制度建设,铜陵学院学报,2008(1)。
①本节的内容主要参考：财政部财政科学研究所“我国宏观经济与财政政策分析”课题组,2008年我国宏观经济与财政政策分析报告,经济研究参考,2009年第12期。
①贾康,关于实施积极财政政策的要领,经济研究参考,2009,1
①贾康、刘薇,积极财政政策的理论与实践,中共中央党校学报,2009,2
②高培勇,新一轮积极财政政策：进程盘点与走势前瞻,财贸经济,2010,1
①张爱龙,2003,我国积极财政政策风险实证分析,中央财经大学学报,2003,8
①对第一阶段积极财政政策的边际效应递减以及负面效应分析可以参考：闫坤,积极财政政策与通货膨胀关系研究,财贸经济,2002,4
[1]安体富,2002,当前世界减税趋势与中国税收政策取向[J].经济研究,2
[2]安体富,2003,积极财政政策“淡出”的必要性、条件与对策,税务研究,第11期
[3]财政部财政科学研究所“我国宏观经济与财政政策分析”课题组,2008年我国宏观经济与财政政策分析报告,经济研究参考,2009年第12期。
[4]陈华,2010,我国经济刺激计划退出时机、路径与政策着力点,地方财政研究,2010.1
[5]丛明,2003,中国的经济财政政策与财政风险评估,中国经济社会论坛,2月
[6]戴园晨, “投资乘数失灵”带来的困惑与思索[J].经济研究,1999,(8).
[7]邓金堂、连建辉、王雪苓,1998-2001年积极财政政策效果评析,当代财经,2002,4,
[8]高长春、蒋德嵩,中国积极财政政策效应分析,哈尔滨工业大学学报(社会科学版),2002,6,
[9]高培勇,新一轮积极财政政策：进程盘点与走势前瞻,财贸经济,2010,1
[10]龚刚,2006,积极财政政策宏观经济效益分析——基于宏观计量模型的研究,《数量经济技术经济研究》,第12期,
[11]郭庆旺,2004,《积极财政政策及其与货币政策配合研究》,中国人民大学出版社
[12]郭庆旺,2007,《积极财政政策效果及淡出策略研究》,中国人民大学出版社
[13]郭庆旺,贾俊雪,积极财政政策的全要素生产率增长效应,中国人民大学学报2005年第4期,
[14]郭庆旺、吕冰洋,何乘才,2004,积极财政政策的乘数效应,财政研究,2004,
[15]国家计委宏观经济研究院课题组,《积极财政政策暂不宜淡出》,《中国经济时报》,2001年7月5日。
[16]黄凤羽、关飞,新一轮积极财政政策的风险防范,经济研究参考,2009,66期
[17]贾康,1998年以来：从积极的财政政策到稳健的财政政策及公共财政制度建设,铜陵学院学报,2008(1)。
[18]贾康,关于实施积极财政政策的要领,经济研究参考,2009,01
[19]贾康、刘薇,积极财政政策的理论与实践,中共中央党校学报,2009年2月
[20]李生祥,丛树海,中国财政政策理论乘数和实际乘数效应研究,财经研究,2004,1,
[21]梁学平,2003,关于积极财政政策逐步淡出问题的探讨,山东财政学院学报(双月刊),2003年第3期
[22]刘成,积极财政政策：淡出还是继续[J].宏观经济研究,2003,(1)
[23]刘刚强、姚俊,2002,积极财政政策与财政风险问题分析,经济问题探索,第7期
[24]刘溶沧,马拴友,赤字、国债与经济增长关系的实证分析--兼评积极财政政策是否有挤出效应,经济研究,2001,2,
[25]马拴友,2001,中国公共部门债务和赤字的可持续性分析,经济研究,第8期
[26]马拴友,2002,积极财政政策评价与展望[J].管理世界,5
[27]毛夏鸾、任丽萍,实施积极财政政策的理论与效应评价,税务研究,2009,12,
[28]苗永旺,王亮亮,2010,全球金融危机经济刺激方案的退出策略：历史经验与现实选择,国际金融研究,第2期
[29]邱华炳,2002,积极财政政策：理论、实践与政策调整,财经问题研究,2002.5
[30]史永东,1999,中国转轨时期财政政策效应的实证分析,经济研究,第2期
[31]田棠杰,近年来财政扩张挤出效应的实证分析[J].财贸研究,2002,(3)
[32]王磊,2003,财政风险与积极财政政策的可持续性分析,山西财政税务专科学校学报,2003年12月
[33]王美涵,积极财政政策的风险与对策研究[J].浙江社会科学,2002,2,
[34]王潼,2003,我国积极财政政策简明仿真模型,中国软科学,2003年第8期
[35]王雪标,王志强,《财政政策,金融政策与协整分析》,东北财经大学出版社,2001
[36]武彦民,我国积极财政政策实施前后财政风险的变动分析,财贸经济,2007,12
[37]薛菁,积极财政政策对地方政府财力的影响及对策,求实,2009,10
[38]闫坤,积极财政政策与通货膨胀关系研究,财贸经济,2002,4
[39]阎坤,2002,积极财政政策与通货膨胀关系研究, 《财贸经济》2002年第4期,
[40]杨俊,王燕,积极财政政策与私人投资关系的区域差异———基于中国东、中、西部面板数据的检验与分析, 《财经科学》2007/5,
[41]杨志安,2002,积极财政政策要防范财政风险,辽宁大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2002年7月
[42]叶文辉,楼东伟,中国财政政策的有效性分析—基于金融危机的背景,山西 财经大学学报,2010年5月
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