中国分税制下的地方财政支出结构与地区经济增长
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摘要
本论文研究的问题是:在分税制条件下,地方财政支出结构与地区经济增长的关系是什么?中央和地方财政支出结构与地区经济增长三者之间的关系是什么?本论文通过构建分税制下的地方财政支出结构与地区经济增长的数理经济模型和经济计量模型,提出并验证了中国分税制下地方财政支出结构与地区经济增长之间的关系。本论文研究的主要内容有三方面:一是通过将财政分权体制引入生产性公共资本理论的数理分析,提出中央财政支出结构、地方财政支出结构与地区经济增长之间关系;二是根据本研究提出的理论框架,构建相应的经济计量模型,分别采用面板数据分析技术和空间经济计量技术,对我国31个省、自治区和直辖市在分税制改革后的地方财政支出结构对地区经济增长的影响进行经济计量分析,为本研究有关分税制下的地方财政支出结构与地区经济增长的数理推导所得结论提供经验证据;三是根据本研究的数理推导和经济计量分析得出的结论,为地方政府构建和谐社会提出相应的政策建议。本文的研究具有理论价值与实践意义:本研究理论意义在于,将财政分权体制引入到生产性公共资本理论的分析框架中,通过数理推导得到了中央财政支出、地方财政支出和地区经济增长三者之间的函数关系式,进而得出在分税制的条件下中央财政支出结构、地方财政支出结构与地区经济增长之间关系的结论;本研究的实践意义在于,根据数理推导得出的结论和经济计量分析得出的经验证据,可以更加深入的了解地方财政支出结构与地区经济增长的相关性,以及产生这种相关性的原因,为地方政府财政政策的制定提供理论参考。
本论文的主要包括七部分:第一部分是导论,提出论文所研究的问题,对研究问题的时代背景进行分析,阐述论文的意义、目标和方法。第二部分是文献综述,其主要内容有两个方面:一方面是通过对财政支出与经济增长、财政分权与经济增长和生产性公共资本论等三方面的文献进行梳理和分析,为本文的数理分析提供文献支持和创新的突破点。另一方面是通过对财政支出结构与经济增长的经济计量分析结论与研究方法的文献梳理,为本文的经济计量分析提供方法创新的突破点。第三部分是分税制下地方财政支出结构与地区经济增长的数理经济分析,主要内容是提出原假设的相关命题,并通过构建本文的数理经济模型的分析框架,进行数理推导得出结论。第四部分是分税制改革前后地区宏观经济数据的比较分析,主要内容是通过静态的比较分析方法和动态的数据结构突变的经济计量分析方法,对分税制改革前后地方经济增长的宏观经济数据进行比较分析,以判断分税制改革前后这些宏观经济数据是否发生了变化,以及是如何变化的。第五部分是分税制下地方财政支出结构与地区经济增长的经济计量模型,主要内容是构建基本经济计量模型,进行面板数据模型的相关检验,其中包括格兰杰因果关系检验、面板单位根和面板协整检验,以及霍斯曼检验,最后对经济计量模型估计结果进行分析。第六部分是分税制下地方财政支出结构与地区经济增长的空间经济计量模型,主要内容是构建空间经济计量模型,进行空间相关性的检验,最后是对空间经济计量模型的估计结果进行分析。并根据前文的经济计量分析结果和结论,提出相应的政策建议。第七部分是结论,主要内容是总结全文研究的内容和结论,本文的结论是:在分税制改革后,我国地方财政支出结构与地区经济增长的关系,无论地方财政支出是生产性支出还是非生产性支出,只要某项地方财政支出结构比与其它地方财政支出结构比的比值小于其相对应的弹性系数的比值,则该项地方财政支出对地区经济增长的贡献为正数,该项支出便是具有生产性的地方财政支出。中央和地方财政支出结构与地区经济增长的关系是,只有当地方财政支出结构与中央财政支出结构实现结构互补时,地方财政生产性支出才能够促进地区经济增长,否则,地方财政生产性支出与地区经济增长的相关性要么不显著,要么具有负效应。
This paper makes a study on the following questions: Under tax assignment system, what impacts did the changing composition of local public expenditure make on the region economy growth? What is relationship among composition of central and local public expenditure and region economy growth? The goal of this study is to get and verify the relationship between composition of local public expenditure and region economy growth, through constructing mathematical economic model and econometric model. Therefore, there are three sides of the content in this paper: the first is that we get the relationship among composition of central and local public expenditure and region economy growth by combining tax assignment system with the mathematical frame of public productive expenditure ; the second is that this paper constructs the basic econometric model according to the production function in the mathematical frame, and makes use of the technique of panel data and spatial econometric to study empirically the relationship between composition of local public expenditure and region economy growth in China after the reform of tax assignment system.; the third is that this paper makes a policy suggestion for local government according to the conclusion in order to construct a harmonious society. The study of this paper has two sides of significance: on the one side , the theoretical significance is to combine tax assignment system with the theory frame of public productive expenditure, and to get properties of relationship among composition of central and local public expenditure and region economy growth.; on the other side, the practical significance is that we can know about deeply the correlations between the composition of local public expenditure and the region economy growth, and the cause of the correlations , according to the theoretical conclusion and positive evidence ,so that we can provide the theoretical and positive references for local government.
This paper has seven parts : PartⅠis introduction which is to point out the question of this paper , and to analysis time background of the question, and to describe the significances, goals and methods of the study. PartⅡis literatures review, the major content has two directions, on the one hand, the theoretical literatures review start from the carding of literatures of fiscal decentralization, fiscal expenditure and public productive expenditure theory, following the line of two sides' impact on economic growth, finding the breakthrough point of mathematical study, laying a solid foundation for the mathematical study of this paper. On the other hand, the empirical literatures review start from the carding of literatures of fiscal expenditure composition and economic growth, to find the breakthrough point of positive study. PartⅢis the mathematical economic analysis of composition of local public expenditure and region economy growth under tax assignment system , the major content is to set forth mathematical hypothesis, and to construct the theoretical frame , and to get the conclusion through theoretical derivation for verifying hypothesis. PartⅣis comparative analysis of regional macro-economic data before and after the reform tax assignment system, the major content is to make a statistical analysis of macro-economic data before and after the reform of tax assignment system, by the methods of static comparative analysis and dynamic data structural change , in order to decide whether there are changes of macro-economic data before and after the reform of tax assignment system , and what is the change. PartⅤis the econometric model of composition of local public expenditure and region economy growth under tax assignment system , the major content is to construct basic econometric model , to make panel data tests which are including Granger causality test, panel unit test and panel co-integration test and Hausman test, lastly to get the conclusion of panel data model estimation. PartⅥis the spatial econometrics model of composition of local public expenditure and region economy growth under tax assignment system, the major content is to construct the spatial econometrics model , to make spatial dependence tests, and lastly to make the analysis of spatial econometric model estimation for the conclusion, and to provide local public finance policy advice according to the conclusion.PartⅦis conclusion , the major content is to make a summary of the study about content, process, methods and conclusion .The following are conclusion of this paper. The property shows that what makes particular components of government expenditure productive does not depend on the sign of the exponent in the production function. Rather, it is a relatrionship between the coefficient and the actual share in the budget which determines whether or not a component is productive. There is a mutual complementation the relationship among composition of central and local public expenditure and region economy growth, and it is the complementary composition between central and local public expenditure, which makes them positively related with region economy growth.
本论文的主要包括七部分:第一部分是导论,提出论文所研究的问题,对研究问题的时代背景进行分析,阐述论文的意义、目标和方法。第二部分是文献综述,其主要内容有两个方面:一方面是通过对财政支出与经济增长、财政分权与经济增长和生产性公共资本论等三方面的文献进行梳理和分析,为本文的数理分析提供文献支持和创新的突破点。另一方面是通过对财政支出结构与经济增长的经济计量分析结论与研究方法的文献梳理,为本文的经济计量分析提供方法创新的突破点。第三部分是分税制下地方财政支出结构与地区经济增长的数理经济分析,主要内容是提出原假设的相关命题,并通过构建本文的数理经济模型的分析框架,进行数理推导得出结论。第四部分是分税制改革前后地区宏观经济数据的比较分析,主要内容是通过静态的比较分析方法和动态的数据结构突变的经济计量分析方法,对分税制改革前后地方经济增长的宏观经济数据进行比较分析,以判断分税制改革前后这些宏观经济数据是否发生了变化,以及是如何变化的。第五部分是分税制下地方财政支出结构与地区经济增长的经济计量模型,主要内容是构建基本经济计量模型,进行面板数据模型的相关检验,其中包括格兰杰因果关系检验、面板单位根和面板协整检验,以及霍斯曼检验,最后对经济计量模型估计结果进行分析。第六部分是分税制下地方财政支出结构与地区经济增长的空间经济计量模型,主要内容是构建空间经济计量模型,进行空间相关性的检验,最后是对空间经济计量模型的估计结果进行分析。并根据前文的经济计量分析结果和结论,提出相应的政策建议。第七部分是结论,主要内容是总结全文研究的内容和结论,本文的结论是:在分税制改革后,我国地方财政支出结构与地区经济增长的关系,无论地方财政支出是生产性支出还是非生产性支出,只要某项地方财政支出结构比与其它地方财政支出结构比的比值小于其相对应的弹性系数的比值,则该项地方财政支出对地区经济增长的贡献为正数,该项支出便是具有生产性的地方财政支出。中央和地方财政支出结构与地区经济增长的关系是,只有当地方财政支出结构与中央财政支出结构实现结构互补时,地方财政生产性支出才能够促进地区经济增长,否则,地方财政生产性支出与地区经济增长的相关性要么不显著,要么具有负效应。
This paper makes a study on the following questions: Under tax assignment system, what impacts did the changing composition of local public expenditure make on the region economy growth? What is relationship among composition of central and local public expenditure and region economy growth? The goal of this study is to get and verify the relationship between composition of local public expenditure and region economy growth, through constructing mathematical economic model and econometric model. Therefore, there are three sides of the content in this paper: the first is that we get the relationship among composition of central and local public expenditure and region economy growth by combining tax assignment system with the mathematical frame of public productive expenditure ; the second is that this paper constructs the basic econometric model according to the production function in the mathematical frame, and makes use of the technique of panel data and spatial econometric to study empirically the relationship between composition of local public expenditure and region economy growth in China after the reform of tax assignment system.; the third is that this paper makes a policy suggestion for local government according to the conclusion in order to construct a harmonious society. The study of this paper has two sides of significance: on the one side , the theoretical significance is to combine tax assignment system with the theory frame of public productive expenditure, and to get properties of relationship among composition of central and local public expenditure and region economy growth.; on the other side, the practical significance is that we can know about deeply the correlations between the composition of local public expenditure and the region economy growth, and the cause of the correlations , according to the theoretical conclusion and positive evidence ,so that we can provide the theoretical and positive references for local government.
This paper has seven parts : PartⅠis introduction which is to point out the question of this paper , and to analysis time background of the question, and to describe the significances, goals and methods of the study. PartⅡis literatures review, the major content has two directions, on the one hand, the theoretical literatures review start from the carding of literatures of fiscal decentralization, fiscal expenditure and public productive expenditure theory, following the line of two sides' impact on economic growth, finding the breakthrough point of mathematical study, laying a solid foundation for the mathematical study of this paper. On the other hand, the empirical literatures review start from the carding of literatures of fiscal expenditure composition and economic growth, to find the breakthrough point of positive study. PartⅢis the mathematical economic analysis of composition of local public expenditure and region economy growth under tax assignment system , the major content is to set forth mathematical hypothesis, and to construct the theoretical frame , and to get the conclusion through theoretical derivation for verifying hypothesis. PartⅣis comparative analysis of regional macro-economic data before and after the reform tax assignment system, the major content is to make a statistical analysis of macro-economic data before and after the reform of tax assignment system, by the methods of static comparative analysis and dynamic data structural change , in order to decide whether there are changes of macro-economic data before and after the reform of tax assignment system , and what is the change. PartⅤis the econometric model of composition of local public expenditure and region economy growth under tax assignment system , the major content is to construct basic econometric model , to make panel data tests which are including Granger causality test, panel unit test and panel co-integration test and Hausman test, lastly to get the conclusion of panel data model estimation. PartⅥis the spatial econometrics model of composition of local public expenditure and region economy growth under tax assignment system, the major content is to construct the spatial econometrics model , to make spatial dependence tests, and lastly to make the analysis of spatial econometric model estimation for the conclusion, and to provide local public finance policy advice according to the conclusion.PartⅦis conclusion , the major content is to make a summary of the study about content, process, methods and conclusion .The following are conclusion of this paper. The property shows that what makes particular components of government expenditure productive does not depend on the sign of the exponent in the production function. Rather, it is a relatrionship between the coefficient and the actual share in the budget which determines whether or not a component is productive. There is a mutual complementation the relationship among composition of central and local public expenditure and region economy growth, and it is the complementary composition between central and local public expenditure, which makes them positively related with region economy growth.
引文
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