中国太阳能光伏产业的国际竞争力研究
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摘要
随着能源与环境的压力不断加大,世界各国日益重视新能源的开发,光伏产品贸易也随着产业的发展高速增长,但伴随着全球金融危机和欧债危机,世界光伏市场增长放缓,美国和欧盟分别对中国启动的反倾销调查,使得严重依赖外需的中国光伏企业雪上加霜,中国光伏产业也到了整合的关键时期。
本文以产业竞争力理论为基础,结合“钻石模型”的主体框架,采用定性和定量分析等思路,从产业链、市场、贸易、政策等多角度出发,结合描述性分析、案例分析、政策对比等手段,探究中国太阳能光伏产业发展的问题和困境,发现结构性产能过剩、产业结构不合理、严重依赖外需、内需严重不足是制约中国太阳能光伏发展的主要问题。
进而,本文结合2000-2011年中国光伏产业相关数据,通过协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、ECM模型等方法,找出中国光伏产业国际竞争力的影响因素,发现高技术产业和制造业的整体实力、人力资本投入在短期和长期都具有显著影响,固定资产投入的长期影响比短期显著,R&D投入在短期内会起到促进作用,而长期来看,竞争力的增长会反馈R&D投入。
最后,本文针对所探究到的问题,为中国太阳能光伏产业发展提出合理化、可行性建议。
With the increasing pressure from energy and environmental problems, the world has paid more attention to the development of new energy sources in recent years, which brings the booming growth of photovoltaic (PV) products trade together with the whole industry. However, since PV enterprises in China highly rely on overseas market demands, the rapid pace of PV market has been held back by international financial crisis and European debt crisis, while the anti-dumping investigation launched by America and EU has made the situation even worse. Now is the crucial moment for integration of PV industry in China.
This paper made an investigation on the problems and dilemma of current situation for PV industry in China. Based on Industrial competitiveness theory and Michael Porter diamond Model, this paper made an analysis both qualitatively and quantitatively from various perspectives, as industry chain, market, trading and impact of policy environment in ways of descriptive analysis, case study and policy comparison, etc. A series of restrictions on Chinese PV market have been identified.
Furthermore, by means of Co-integration test, Granger causality tests and ECM model, this paper analyses the relevant figures of Chinese PV industry from year2000to2011to find out the factors that have impact on the international competitiveness of Chinese PV industry. The result indicates that the overall strength of high-tech and manufacturing industry, the investment of human resources, fixed assets and R&D has impact in both short and long run. In the end, this paper gives reasonable and workable international strategy for further development of solar energy photovoltaic industry in China.
本文以产业竞争力理论为基础,结合“钻石模型”的主体框架,采用定性和定量分析等思路,从产业链、市场、贸易、政策等多角度出发,结合描述性分析、案例分析、政策对比等手段,探究中国太阳能光伏产业发展的问题和困境,发现结构性产能过剩、产业结构不合理、严重依赖外需、内需严重不足是制约中国太阳能光伏发展的主要问题。
进而,本文结合2000-2011年中国光伏产业相关数据,通过协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、ECM模型等方法,找出中国光伏产业国际竞争力的影响因素,发现高技术产业和制造业的整体实力、人力资本投入在短期和长期都具有显著影响,固定资产投入的长期影响比短期显著,R&D投入在短期内会起到促进作用,而长期来看,竞争力的增长会反馈R&D投入。
最后,本文针对所探究到的问题,为中国太阳能光伏产业发展提出合理化、可行性建议。
With the increasing pressure from energy and environmental problems, the world has paid more attention to the development of new energy sources in recent years, which brings the booming growth of photovoltaic (PV) products trade together with the whole industry. However, since PV enterprises in China highly rely on overseas market demands, the rapid pace of PV market has been held back by international financial crisis and European debt crisis, while the anti-dumping investigation launched by America and EU has made the situation even worse. Now is the crucial moment for integration of PV industry in China.
This paper made an investigation on the problems and dilemma of current situation for PV industry in China. Based on Industrial competitiveness theory and Michael Porter diamond Model, this paper made an analysis both qualitatively and quantitatively from various perspectives, as industry chain, market, trading and impact of policy environment in ways of descriptive analysis, case study and policy comparison, etc. A series of restrictions on Chinese PV market have been identified.
Furthermore, by means of Co-integration test, Granger causality tests and ECM model, this paper analyses the relevant figures of Chinese PV industry from year2000to2011to find out the factors that have impact on the international competitiveness of Chinese PV industry. The result indicates that the overall strength of high-tech and manufacturing industry, the investment of human resources, fixed assets and R&D has impact in both short and long run. In the end, this paper gives reasonable and workable international strategy for further development of solar energy photovoltaic industry in China.
引文
[1]贝明宇,徐庆.全球光伏产业前瞻[J].太阳能,2009(04).
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[4]高环成,李廷瑞.美国“双反”调查对我国太阳能产品出口价格的影响[J].价格理论与实践,2012(06).
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[7]谷志红.促进节能和可再生能源电力发展的绿色电价研究[D].北京：华北电力大学,2009.
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[14]李晓刚.中国光伏产业发展战略研究[D].吉林：吉林大学,2007.
[[5]刘工践.中国光伏产业之路怎么走[N].中国能源报,2009-11-30(A01).
[16]陆胜利.世界能源问题与中国能源安全研究[D].中共中央党校,2011.
[17]迈克尔·波特.国家竞争优势[M].李明轩,邱如美,译.北京：华夏出版社,2002：1-125.
[18]孙广彬.我国太阳能光伏产品出口竞争将日趋激烈[J].电器工业,2009(11)：20-30.
[19]孙岳军.中国光伏产业竞争力现状与前景分析[D].上海：复旦大学管理学院,2009：1-61.
[20]汤梅.供应链上下游的企业关系研究——以太阳能光伏产业链为例[J].经济论坛,2009(8)：102-104.
[21]王保权,方群.太阳能需求大国及新兴国家补贴政策的研究[J].太阳能,2009(05).
[22]王斯成.加快启动国内光伏市场,应对国际光伏形势新变化(上)[J].太阳能,2011(4)：17-20.
[23]王斯成.加快启动国内光伏市场,应对国际光伏形势新变化(下)[J].太阳能,2011(6)：16-23.
[24]王斯成.加快启动国内光伏市场,应对国际光伏形势新变化(中)[J].太阳能,2011(5)：16-21.
[25]闻立时.自主创新建设光伏产业强国[N].中国电子报,2009-12-08(003).
[26]肖蓓.地震海啸聚焦日本光伏企业[N].中国有色金属报,2011-03-17(007).
[27]谢光亚,李晓光.中国太阳能光伏产业的国际竞争力研究[J].对外经贸实务,2012(2)：21-24.
[28]阳芳,周源俊.利用光伏上网电价政策促进我国光伏产业发展的思考——德国光伏上网电价政策及其对我国的启示[J].价格理论与实践,2010(08)：42-43.
[29]张岩贵,陈晓燕.全球价值链与中国制造[J].世界经济研究,2009(10).
[30]张扬,康艳兵.鼓励节能建筑的财税激励政策国际经验分析[J].节能与环保,2009(09).
[31]赵玉文,吴达成,王斯成,等.中国光伏产业发展研究报告(2006-2007)(上)[J].太阳能,2008(06)：11-30.
[32]赵玉文,吴达成,王斯成,等.中国光伏产业发展研究报告(2006-2007)(下)[J].太阳能,2008(08)：6-13.
[33]Andy Klump. Opportunities in the Solar industry[R]复旦大学管理学院,May,11,2009.
[34]EPIA. Global market outlook for photovoltaics until 2015[R]. EU:EPIA,2011:4-39.
[35]Igor Ansoff. From Strategic Planning to Strategic Management[M]. MIT Press,1976: 15-88.
[36]Michael Porter. Competitive Advantage[M]. New York:Free Press,1985. (RePublishedwith a new introduetion,1998)
[37]Michael Porter. Competitive Strategy[M]. New York:Free Press,1980. (RePublished With a new introduetion,1998)
[38]Mohamed Ariff. Taufiq Hassan. How Capital Structure Adjust Dynamically During Financial Crises[J]. Corporate Finance Review,2008,13(3):11-24.
[39]PORTER E M. Competitive Stratege:Techniques for Analyzing Industries and competitiors[M]. Boston:Harvard Business School Press,1980.
[40]Schwab K. The global competitiveness report 2010-2011[R]. Geneva, Switzerland, 2010.
[41]Scott P. Kurt. Durability & Reliability Challenges for Photovoltaics. Power Engineering,2008,112(11):12-14.
[42]SEIA. Solar energy facts:year in review 2011 fourth quarter CAPS historic year for US:solar industry[R],2012.
[43]Slade Ron. The Evolution of Solar Photovoltaic System[J]. Electrical Construction & Maintenance,2009,108(5):28-32.
[2]陈晓燕.光伏产业国际竞争力研究[D].天津：南开大学经济学院,2010：77-103.
[3]付永长,蔡皓.太阳能发电的现状及发展[J].农村电气化,2009(09).
[4]高环成,李廷瑞.美国“双反”调查对我国太阳能产品出口价格的影响[J].价格理论与实践,2012(06).
[5]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模(第二版)[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2009：147-314.
[6]耿亚新.太阳能光伏产业链垂直一体化构建研究[D].四北大学,2011.
[7]谷志红.促进节能和可再生能源电力发展的绿色电价研究[D].北京：华北电力大学,2009.
[8]海山,栾春娟.全球太阳能光伏产业法律政策分析及启示[J].太阳能,2011(23)：6-13.
[9]红炜.政府工作报告为今年光伏行业定调[N].中国能源报,2012-03-19(023).
[10]胡志鹏.国内外能源结构的变化及替代能源的发展前景[J].电器工业,2008(10).
[11]江泽民.对中国能源问题的思考[J].中国石油企业,2008(4)：14-16.
[12]孔慧,熊胜虎.全球光伏产业发展现状及发展趋势分析[J].太阳能,2009(06).
[13]雷敏,吴宇,郑晓奕.美国“双反”案袭来中国光伏产业如何走出困境[N].中国信息报,2012-09-05(006).
[14]李晓刚.中国光伏产业发展战略研究[D].吉林：吉林大学,2007.
[[5]刘工践.中国光伏产业之路怎么走[N].中国能源报,2009-11-30(A01).
[16]陆胜利.世界能源问题与中国能源安全研究[D].中共中央党校,2011.
[17]迈克尔·波特.国家竞争优势[M].李明轩,邱如美,译.北京：华夏出版社,2002：1-125.
[18]孙广彬.我国太阳能光伏产品出口竞争将日趋激烈[J].电器工业,2009(11)：20-30.
[19]孙岳军.中国光伏产业竞争力现状与前景分析[D].上海：复旦大学管理学院,2009：1-61.
[20]汤梅.供应链上下游的企业关系研究——以太阳能光伏产业链为例[J].经济论坛,2009(8)：102-104.
[21]王保权,方群.太阳能需求大国及新兴国家补贴政策的研究[J].太阳能,2009(05).
[22]王斯成.加快启动国内光伏市场,应对国际光伏形势新变化(上)[J].太阳能,2011(4)：17-20.
[23]王斯成.加快启动国内光伏市场,应对国际光伏形势新变化(下)[J].太阳能,2011(6)：16-23.
[24]王斯成.加快启动国内光伏市场,应对国际光伏形势新变化(中)[J].太阳能,2011(5)：16-21.
[25]闻立时.自主创新建设光伏产业强国[N].中国电子报,2009-12-08(003).
[26]肖蓓.地震海啸聚焦日本光伏企业[N].中国有色金属报,2011-03-17(007).
[27]谢光亚,李晓光.中国太阳能光伏产业的国际竞争力研究[J].对外经贸实务,2012(2)：21-24.
[28]阳芳,周源俊.利用光伏上网电价政策促进我国光伏产业发展的思考——德国光伏上网电价政策及其对我国的启示[J].价格理论与实践,2010(08)：42-43.
[29]张岩贵,陈晓燕.全球价值链与中国制造[J].世界经济研究,2009(10).
[30]张扬,康艳兵.鼓励节能建筑的财税激励政策国际经验分析[J].节能与环保,2009(09).
[31]赵玉文,吴达成,王斯成,等.中国光伏产业发展研究报告(2006-2007)(上)[J].太阳能,2008(06)：11-30.
[32]赵玉文,吴达成,王斯成,等.中国光伏产业发展研究报告(2006-2007)(下)[J].太阳能,2008(08)：6-13.
[33]Andy Klump. Opportunities in the Solar industry[R]复旦大学管理学院,May,11,2009.
[34]EPIA. Global market outlook for photovoltaics until 2015[R]. EU:EPIA,2011:4-39.
[35]Igor Ansoff. From Strategic Planning to Strategic Management[M]. MIT Press,1976: 15-88.
[36]Michael Porter. Competitive Advantage[M]. New York:Free Press,1985. (RePublishedwith a new introduetion,1998)
[37]Michael Porter. Competitive Strategy[M]. New York:Free Press,1980. (RePublished With a new introduetion,1998)
[38]Mohamed Ariff. Taufiq Hassan. How Capital Structure Adjust Dynamically During Financial Crises[J]. Corporate Finance Review,2008,13(3):11-24.
[39]PORTER E M. Competitive Stratege:Techniques for Analyzing Industries and competitiors[M]. Boston:Harvard Business School Press,1980.
[40]Schwab K. The global competitiveness report 2010-2011[R]. Geneva, Switzerland, 2010.
[41]Scott P. Kurt. Durability & Reliability Challenges for Photovoltaics. Power Engineering,2008,112(11):12-14.
[42]SEIA. Solar energy facts:year in review 2011 fourth quarter CAPS historic year for US:solar industry[R],2012.
[43]Slade Ron. The Evolution of Solar Photovoltaic System[J]. Electrical Construction & Maintenance,2009,108(5):28-32.