汇率制度选择分析—兼论澳门汇率制度选择
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摘要
汇率制度选择的研究是国际金融领域中最为活跃的课题之一,不同的经济体在不同的发展阶段,需要与它相匹配的汇率制度。作为微型经济体的澳门,受其独特客观条件的影响,难以应用一般的通论判别其最优汇率制度选择。本文首先应用M_F模型,阐述在不同汇率制度、资本流动程度下,货币政策、财政政策以及国际收支变化对经济的影响。指出M_F模型有关政策配搭结果的解释,因受客观条件的限制,存在一定的局限性。然后根据Poirson“各国如何进行汇率制度选择”文章中论及的影响汇率制度选择的主要因素,透过相关的理论分析,解释该些因素如何发挥它们的影响。针对澳门现行的汇率制度,透过定量分析方法,以价格水平、利率水平、国际收支弹性的合理性来分析澳门现行汇率的合理性及可持续性。再进一步以简单的宏观模型研究澳门现行货币政策及财政政策对经济的影响,探讨政策工具的有效性。最后,透过介绍澳门经济现状及与主要贸易伙伴的关系及展望,探讨澳门未来实施不同汇率制度的可行性。文章结论是:鉴于货币政策的有效性低,加上汇率变化无法发挥调节内外均衡价格杠杆的功能,浮动汇率制度并不适合澳门;虽然澳门目前的货币局制度具有相当高的可持续性,但澳门元与人民币建立货币联盟的收益远大于成本付出,在人民币国际化的将来,货币一体化将是澳门元汇率制度的必然选择。
Selection of exchange rate regime(ERR) is one of the popular topics in international financial area.Economy requires an adequate exchange rate regime in different phase.Macau is a miniature economy system,difficult to apply general theories to choose its ERR,with its unique detachment.In this report,I have applied the M_F Model to illustrate the influences to an economy system of different monetary policies,fiscal policies,and international balance of payment,under different exchange rate regimes and different level of capital mobility.The interpretation of M_F Model exists certain limitation,the come out of different policies conjugation is limited by different detachment.According to the article,"How do countries choose their exchange rate regime?- by Poirson",that illustrated the primary factors that affect the choice of ERR,I have explained how they exert their influences through related theories. Concerning Macau's current ERR,I have discussed its reasonableness and continuity through quantitative analysis by applying various pricing level,interest rates level,as well as elasticity of import and export.Whereafter,I have applied a simple macro econometric model to analyze the economic effects caused by Macau's current monetary policies and fiscal policies,and figure out the effectiveness of their policy tools.Finally,I have discussed Macau's current economy,the relationship with its major trade partners and the prospects.Thereafter,I have discussed the feasibility of various exchange rate regimes choice in Macau.The conclusion is that due to the low validity of monetary policy,in addition the exchange rate change is unable to exert its lever's function which supposed to adjust the domestic equilibrium price equal to the world equilibrium price,the floating exchange rate regime is not adequate to Macao.Although the currency board is highly sustainable in Macau,the currency union between Patacas and RMB will be a unique choice in Macau's ERR,as the result of the internationalization of RMB in the coming future.
Selection of exchange rate regime(ERR) is one of the popular topics in international financial area.Economy requires an adequate exchange rate regime in different phase.Macau is a miniature economy system,difficult to apply general theories to choose its ERR,with its unique detachment.In this report,I have applied the M_F Model to illustrate the influences to an economy system of different monetary policies,fiscal policies,and international balance of payment,under different exchange rate regimes and different level of capital mobility.The interpretation of M_F Model exists certain limitation,the come out of different policies conjugation is limited by different detachment.According to the article,"How do countries choose their exchange rate regime?- by Poirson",that illustrated the primary factors that affect the choice of ERR,I have explained how they exert their influences through related theories. Concerning Macau's current ERR,I have discussed its reasonableness and continuity through quantitative analysis by applying various pricing level,interest rates level,as well as elasticity of import and export.Whereafter,I have applied a simple macro econometric model to analyze the economic effects caused by Macau's current monetary policies and fiscal policies,and figure out the effectiveness of their policy tools.Finally,I have discussed Macau's current economy,the relationship with its major trade partners and the prospects.Thereafter,I have discussed the feasibility of various exchange rate regimes choice in Macau.The conclusion is that due to the low validity of monetary policy,in addition the exchange rate change is unable to exert its lever's function which supposed to adjust the domestic equilibrium price equal to the world equilibrium price,the floating exchange rate regime is not adequate to Macao.Although the currency board is highly sustainable in Macau,the currency union between Patacas and RMB will be a unique choice in Macau's ERR,as the result of the internationalization of RMB in the coming future.
引文
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