中国汇率政策研究
|
摘要
长期以来，我国对于国民经济开放部分的调控并没有形成强有力的调控手段，对于外部经济环境的改善主要依靠国内经济政策措施来实现。这种调控方式，不仅使政策的成本大大增加，导致市场发生新的扭曲，而且也致使主要的政策目标发生偏离，或者其实施受到严重的制掣，令人关注的是，这—现象在当前的经济环境中表现的越来越突出。
我国经济进入了典型的高速增长阶段的繁荣期，固定资产投资增长过快、外汇储备总量过大和粮食、石油等原料价格上涨成为制约经济进一步发展的重要隐忧。由于问题集中且结构复杂，仅仅依靠原有的政策调整已显得成本过于高昂和乏力了。这种政策调控中的困境说明，随着我国经济规模的扩张、市场经济体制的完善和经济自由度的不断增大，原有的以内部经济政策来同时调整国民经济达到内部均衡和外部均衡的政策体系设计已经在逐步的失效，新的且能够直接以经济外部均衡为调控目标的政策手段的引入便显得亟为迫切和必要，而汇率政策则是发达市场经济国家对经济外部均衡进行调整的直接而有效的手段。
从中国汇率问题的历史来看，长期以来，中国一直处于有制度无政策的状况。所谓有制度是指中国在不同的时期都存在执行不同的汇率管理的基本原则和方针，如解放初期的对卢布的固定汇率制度、60年代以后对美元的固定汇率制度、80年代计划和市场汇率并存的双轨汇率制度以及1994年以后形成的“有管理的浮动汇率”制度等等。所谓无政策是指在基本制度约束的前提下，中国的汇率始终没有形成富有弹性的调控措施体系，如在1997年以后形成的超稳定的人民币汇率结构，无论中国国内经济的发展情况如何，也无论其主要的钉住国家美国的经济发展形式如何，央行始终保持名义汇率的异常稳定，而放弃了对经济进行有效外部调整并进行有效政策搭配的调控措施的使用。这种“跛行”的汇率安排随着中国经济规模的扩张和国际影响力的扩大，带来的问题和风险将逐步的加大，甚至将拖累整个国民经济，因此，构筑具有中国特色的人民币汇率政策体系并将其作为国家宏观经济调控手段的重要组成部分是具有重大而深远的意义的。
所谓的汇率政策其含义是：一国外汇主管当局或货币当局为实现其预定的宏观经济目标，对汇率的定价水平、波动幅度、锚货币构成和干预方式等实施调节和控制的具体措施。本文以“中国汇率政策研究”为题目，其核心有两点，第一点是汇率政策，第二点则是建构。从汇率政策而言，汇率政策的实施现状、汇率政策的环境与形成基础、汇率政策的目标、汇率政策的政策手段等是汇率政策研究的最主要内容。而对于建构来说，则主要包括汇率政策目标的选择、汇率政策措施和手段的构成及实施效果、汇率政策措施手段的组合以及汇率政策与其他宏观经济政策的搭配等内容。本文在论述中，将两者予以结合并进行联合讨论，既突出汇率政策和建构各自内容的独立性，又将其作用和效果相融合，以求建立理论上和实践上都能具有较高价值的中国汇率政策构成方案。
本文在研究结构上共分为四个主要部分，即理论及思想基础、现象的分析和总结、对象的构成及分析、实践意义及其前景分析。这四个主要部分之间存在层层递进的关系，前—个部分的讨论是后一部分研究分析和拓展的基础。以此为条件，本文将文章的整体框架分解为四个组成部分，即：第一部分，理论及思想基础部分，具体包括第1章和第2章；第二部分，现象分析和总结部分，具体包括文章第3章的主要内容；第三部分，研究对象构成及分析部分，具体包括第4章和第5章的内容；第四部分，实践意义及前景分析部分，具体包括第6章和第7章的内容。
第一部分：理论及思想基础部分
1．第1章：导论。在本章中主要对全文的总体框架和研究结构与方法进行讨论与分析，其中重点讨论了影响本文的重要概念及其涵义，对于本文的总体研究方法在思想、结构和论证上进行总结，并对本文的创新和不足之处进行了自查和总结。
2．第2章：理论研究综述。在本章中对本文所依靠的重要理论基础进行总结和分析，将整体理论研究分为四个主要部分，即汇率制度理论、货币危机理论、发展中国家汇率决定理论、开放经济下宏观经济政策冲突与协调理论。从汇率制度理论来看，文中主要分析了马克思关于汇率制度的论述、西方汇率制度理论以及其自身内容的新发展等方面的内容；从货币危机理论来看，本文对马克思的货币危机理论、西方货币危机理论(三代货币危机理论)、货币危机的传染效应、货币危机与银行危机的共生性研究等方面的内容进行了总结；在发展中国家汇率决定理论中，本文主要对爱德华兹(E.Edwards)的汇率均衡模型进行了总结和分析；在开放经济下宏观政策冲突及协调理论中，文章主要总结和概括了米德冲突、丁伯根原则、斯旺曲线、蒙代尔“政策分派”理论和克鲁格曼“不可能三角”等内容。上述理论的综述和总结，基本上满足了本文在分析和研究中的需要，并成为本文创新的有效基础。
第二部分：现象分析和总结部分
第二部分的内容主要是指第3章论述的内容。在该章中，系统概括并阐述了人民币汇率及汇率政策的基础与现状，对汇率制度等环境因素进行了分析。从内容来看，可以分为三个主要部分，即人民币汇率的形成基础、人民币汇率的运行环境(汇率制度)、人民币汇率形成机制及问题。在人民币汇率的形成基础中，既对传统的形成基础研究进行了概括，在系统经济学理论的指导下，分析了实体经济系统(购买力)和金融经济系统(利率)的作用和影响，又形成了本文的重要创新点，人民币汇率孤波现象，提出了人民币汇率形成的新思想；在人民币汇率的运行环境中，总结性的分析了人民币汇率制度的演变、现行汇率制度的特点和现行汇率制度的缺陷等内容；而在人民币汇率的形成机制部分，则客观分析了现行人民币汇率形成机制及其主要内容。从分析的效果看，能够为本文的下一步研究提供充分而有效的局限条件。
第三部分：研究对象构成及分析部分
1．第4章：中国汇率政策的目标选择。在本章的研究中，主要将汇率政策的目标划分为最终目标和中间目标，并分别展开分析。在汇率政策最终目标的分析中，较为系统的概括和研究了汇率政策最终目标的五个选择，即汇率稳定目标、汇率中性目标、促进出口目标、吸引外资目标和均衡汇率目标，并在结合中国国情的基础上，选定了汇率稳定目标是中国现阶段最有可能确立的汇率政策实际目标，并将其假定为本文以后分析和讨论的实现目标。在汇率政策的中间目标研究中，根据国际经济和金融经济学、国际经济学的重要理论结论，选择了外汇储备、外汇占款、货币供应量、通货膨胀率和相对利率水平来作为中国汇率政策的中间目标，并将中间目标相互间的影响及其与最终目标之间的关系进行了整合研究。
2．第5章：中国汇率政策措施的构成。本章首先分析和总结了汇率政策的直接措施和间接措施的构成与实施效力，分别分析了汇率升值措施、汇率贬值措施、利率调整措施、外汇管制措施、公开市场操作措施、汇率波动幅度措施和锚货币组成调整措施等内容。以此为基础，在系统经济学等理论的指导下，本文对上述汇率政策措施的影响进行了整合，并提出汇率政策措施的搭配规划。
第四部分：实践意义及前景分析部分
1．第6章：中国汇率政策与财政及货币政策的搭配与运作。在本章中，主要讨论了汇率政策与货币政策和财政政策的搭配的基本框架和理论原则，并在此基础上，整体上分析和研究了三种重要宏观经济政策的总体搭配原则。在其中，财政政策与汇率政策的搭配以及适合中国国情的三种宏观经济政策的总体搭配研究都构成本文重要的创新。
2．第7章：中国汇率政策发展的若干问题。在本章中，本文对中国汇率政策在决定和影响因素变化的情况下的自身改革和发展情况进行了总结和分析。汇率政策的决定和影响因素主要包括人民币长期均衡汇率的测算、中国金融改革、中国对外贸易战略调整、汇率制度转型四项内容。其中，人民币长期均衡汇率测算为中国汇率政策调整的基本方向提供了目标；中国金融改革，尤其是资本账户开放的改革为中国汇率政策的实施带来了新的风险和挑战；中国的外贸战略调整，为汇率政策的运作带来了新的问题；中国汇率制度转型，为汇率政策提供了新的运作环境、约束条件和控制措施。本章在结合前文分析内容的情况下，对上述因素的影响进行了动态研究和分析。
从文章的整体上看，研究的创新主要体现在以下三个方面，即研究对象的创新、研究内容的创新和研究方法的创新。具体是指：
一、研究对象的创新
金融是现代经济的核心和血脉，而汇率则是国家间金融联系的桥梁和纽带，在经济日趋全球化的今天，汇率的重要性更显得突出，因此，对汇率研究的文献便浩如烟海。但从国内的研究情况来看，几乎全部的研究都集中在汇率制度的研究上，对于承载汇率制度的汇率政策体系，要么—笔带过，要么就干脆予以忽略。而在宏观经济层面，作为调整中国外部均衡的重要政策手段却一直空缺。这种研究中和实践中的关键空白既是本文选题的原因，也成为本文研究对象的重要创新所在。
二、研究内容的创新
研究内容的创新主要体现在以下4个部分。
1．较系统地提出了人民币的汇率孤波思想。本文结合现代物理学色散理论和孤子理论，提出了人民币汇率孤波的思想，这种思想的提出既为汇率研究提供了一个新的视角和模型，也为国际上和国内对于人民币超稳定结构的政府管制效应提供了一种新的解释框架。
2．较系统的提出了中国汇率政策的最终目标选择体系和中间目标构成体系，并确立了目标成立和设置的基本原则和思想，在结合中国实际的基础上，分析了中间目标间的相互影响，以及中间目标对最终目标的整合影响。
3．较系统的分析了财政政策与汇率政策的搭配问题，对财政政策、货币政策与汇率政策的总体搭配方法和原则进行了讨论，提出了相关原则和方案，并对中国以汇率稳定为目标的汇率政策下的措施组合进行了研究。
4．将资本项目开放下的信贷风险、货币风险、道德风险进行整合分析，并提出了该情况下总体风险的综合表现模型及风险演进。
三、研究方法的创新
1．政策研究框架的创新。从国内传统的政策研究框架来看，—般按政策的基础、政策的现状、政策的内容、政策的影响四个方面进行设计分析，这种研究与实际缺乏结合性，在逻辑性上也有欠缺，往往只是对既往实际情况的总结，而缺乏前瞻性和独立性。本文对政策的研究采用了政策环境与基础、政策的双层目标设计、政策措施与手段、政策搭配与措施组合的分析框架，有效地避免了上述研究中的不足。
2．方法组合的创新。本文将数理经济学、数量经济学、物理学、系统经济学、科学哲学的研究方法予以组合，对假定的宏观经济变量的参数都进行了必要的估定，突破了现有研究中逻辑与实践相分离的缺陷。
Since long ago, our country has not formed the powerful regulative method regarding the regulation of opening part in national economy, and improved the external economy environment mainly depending on the domestic economic policy measure. This regulative way, not only increases the policy cost greatly, causes the market to have the new distortion, but also makes the main policy goal deviated or makes its implementation receive the serious system brake. What need to be paid attention is that this tendency presents more and more prominently in the current economic environment.
Our country economy enters a prosperous time of the high-speed gowth stage, the investment in the fixed assets grows excessively, the total quantity of foreign exchange reservation oversized and raw material such as grain and petroleum rises in price, which become the important concealed worry to restrict economy further development. Because the question is centered and the structure is complicated, it appears that the cost is too high and weak merely depending upon the original policy adjustment. This kind of policy regulation dilemma shows that, along with the expansion of our country economical scale, the perfection of the market economy system and the increase of the freedom degree of economy unceasingly, original policy system design that simultaneously adjusts the national economy by the internal economy policy to achieve the interior balance and exterior balance is already in the gradually expiration, so it is essential and urgent to introduce new policy method, which can take the economy exterior balance as the regulative goal directly, while the exchange rate policy is the direct and the effective method to adjust the economy exterior balance in the developed market economy country.
From the point of history question of the Chinese exchange rate, since long ago China has been in the stage that has the system but non-policy. So-called has the system is refers to China has executed different basic principle and the policy of the exchange rate management in the different time, such as the ruble fixed rate of exchange system in the early days of liberation, the US dollar fixed rate of exchange system in the later 1960s, the two-track exchange rate system in which to, the plan and the market exchange rate coexist in the1980s, "have the management floating exchange rate" system formed after 1994 and so on. So-called non-policy is refers to that under the premise of basic system restraint, China's exchange rate has not yet formed the rich elastically regulative measure system. Take the super-stable Renminbi exchange rate structure formed after 1997 for an example, regardless of how Chinese domestic economy developed, and also regardless of how is the economical development form of the main nailed country US, the central bank has been maintaining the nominal exchange rate stable exceptionally, but gave up carrying on to the economy effective exterior adjustments and using the regulative measures of the matched effective policy. This "limps" exchange rate arrangement leads to gradually enlarging questions and risks along with the expansion of the Chinese economical scale and the international influence, even will implicate the entire national economy. Therefore, it is of great and profound significance to construct Renminbi exchange rate policy system with Chinese characteristic and take it as the important constituent of the national macroscopic economy regulation method.
The meaning of so-called exchange rate policy is: the specific measures of adjustments and controls used by a country foreign exchange executive authority or the currency authority to exchange rate fixed price level, margin of fluctuation, constitution of anchor currency, intervention way and so on currency for achieving its predetermined macroscopic economic goal. This article takes "The research on constructing the Chinese exchange rate policy" as a topic, and has two cores, the first is the exchange rate policy, the second is the construction. From the point of exchange rate policy, the present implementation situation, the environment and the form foundation, the goal, the policy method of the exchange rate policy and so on are the main coverage of exchange rate policy research. While regarding construction, it mainly includes the choice of the exchange rate policy goal, the constitution and the implementation effect of the exchange rate, the combination of the exchange rate policy measures and method, as well as the exchange rate policy matches with other macroeconomic policies. This article unifies and discusses the both, not only prominent the content independence of the exchange rate policy and constructs respectively, but also fuses its function and the effect, in order to establish the Chinese exchange rate policy constitution plan with high value in theoretically and practically.
This article is divided into four main parts in the research structure, namely theory and thought foundation, phenomenon analysis and summary, object constitution and analysis, practice significance and its prospect analysis. There exists layer upon layer relations between these four main parts, the preceding partial discussions are the foundations on which the latter part of research analyzes and develops. Take this as the condition, this article divides the overall frame into four constituents, namely: The first part, the theory and the thought foundation including 1st chapter and the 2nd chapter specifically; The second part, the phenomenon analysis and the summary including the 3rd chapter specifically; The third part, the constitution of study object and the analysis including the 4th and the 5th chapter specifically; The fourth part, the practice significance and the prospect analysis including 6th chapter and the 7th chapter specifically.
The first part: Theory and Thought Foundation
1. The 1st chapter: Introduction. this chapter mainly discusses and analyzes the full text overall frame and the research structure and method, in which with emphasis discusses the important concept and implication which influences this article, summarizes overall research technique of this article in the thought, structure and the proof, and self-examines and summarizes the innovation and the deficiency of this article.
2. The 2nd chapter: Theory research summary. This chapter summarizes and analyzes the important theory basis upon which this article depends, divides the overall theory research into the four main parts, namely exchange rate system theory, currency crisis theory, the exchange rate decision theory of developing nations, the macroeconomic policy conflict and coordinated theory under open economy. Conceming the exchange rate system theory, this article mainly analyzes Marx's elaboration about the exchange rate system, western exchange rate system theory as well as new development of its content and so on; Conceming the currency crisis theory, this article summarizes the Marx's currency crisis theory, the western currency crisis theory (three generation of currency crisis theory), the infection effect of currency crisis, the coexist of the currency crisis and the bank crisis and so on; Concerning the exchange rate decision theory of developing nations, this article mainly summarizes and analyzes Edwards's (E. Edwards) the exchange rate balanced model; Concerning the macroscopic policy conflict and coordinated theory under open economy, the article mainly summarizes Meader Conflict, Ding Burgon principle, the Siwan curve, Mondale "the policy distribution" theory and Crue Gehman "the impossible triangle" and so on. The above theory summary basically satisfies the need of analysis and research in this article, and becomes the effective foundation of innovations of this article.
The Second part: Phenomenon Analysis and Summary
The second part mainly refers to the 3rd chapter. This chapter systematically summarizes and elaborates the foundation and the present situation of Renminbi exchange rate and the exchange rate policy, analyzes environmental factors such as exchange rate system. This chapter can be divided into three main parts, namely the formation foundation, movement environment (exchange rate system), the formation mechanism and questions of Renminbi exchange rate. In the formation foundation of Renminbi exchange rate, this part not only summarizes the traditional research formation foundation,, but also analyzes the function and the influence of the entity economical system (purchasing power) and the financial economical system (interest rate) under the guide of system economic theory, which forms the important innovation spot of this article-the solitary wave phenomenon of Renminbi exchange rate, and proposes new thought of the Renminbi exchange rate forms; Conceming the movement environment of Renminbi exchange rate, this chapter generally analyzes the evolution, characteristics and dificency of Renminbi exchange rate system and so on; while concerning the formation mechanism of Renminbi exchange rate, this chapter objectively analyzes the mechanism and its main content of present Renminbi exchange rate formed mechanism. From the point of analysis effect, it can provide full and effective limitation condition for the next research of this article.
The third part: Constitution of Object Study and Analysis
1. The 4th chapter: The target selection and establishment of Chinese exchange rate policy. This chapter mainly divides the exchange rate policy goal into the ultimate objective and the intermediate objective, and launches the analysis separately. In the analysis of exchange rate policy ultimate objective, systematically summarizes and studies the five choices of the exchange rate policy ultimate objective, namely the stabilization of exchange rate goal, the exchange rate neutral goal, the export promotion goal, the attraction of foreign capital goal and the balanced exchange rate goal, and in the foundation of unifying the Chinese national condition, chooses the stabilization of exchange rate goal as the exchange rate policy actual target which is likely to be established in Chinese present stage, and hypothesis it as the realization goal later analyzed and discussed in this article. In the research of the exchange rate policy intermediate objective, according to the important theory conclusions of the international economics and the financial economics, the international economics, this chapter chooses the foreign exchange reserve, the foreign exchange occupied-funds, the money supply, the inflation rate and the relative interest rate level as the intermediate objective of the Chinese exchange rate policy, and has carried on the integrated research on mutually influence of the intermediate objectives and its relations with the ultimate objective.
2. The 5th chapter: The constitution and operation of Chinese exchange rate policy and measures. This chapter first analyzes and summarizes the constitution and the implementation potency of the direct measure and the indirect measure of the exchange rate policy, and analyzes the exchange rate revaluation measure, exchange rate depreciation measure, rate adjustment measure, foreign exchange control measure, open market operation measure, exchange rate margin of fluctuation measure, composition adjustment measure of anchor currency respectively. Take this as the foundation, under the guide of system economics, this article integrates the influence of above exchange rate measures, and proposes the matching plan of exchange rate policy and measures.
The Fourth part: Practice Significance and Prospect Analysis
1. The 6th chapter, matching and operation plan of Chinese macroeconomic policy. This chapter mainly discusses the basic flame and the theory principle which the exchange rate policy and the monetary policy and the financial policy match, and under this foundation, analyzes and studies the overall matching principle of three kind of important macroeconomic policy. Among which, the financial policy and the exchange rate policy match, and the overall matching principle of three kind of important macroeconomic policy adapted to the Chinese national condition all constitute the important innovations of this article.
2. The 7th chapter: The study and analysis of Chinese exchange rate policy development. This chapter summarizes and analyzes own reform and development situation of the Chinese exchange rate policy in the changing of decisive and influential factor situation. The decisive and influential factors of the exchange rate policy mainly include the survey and calculation of Renminbi long-term balanced exchange rate, the Chinese finance reform, the Chinese foreign trade strategy adjustment, and the exchange rate system reform. Among them, the survey and calculation of Renminbi long-term balanced exchange rate provided the goal for the basic direction of Chinese exchange rate policy adjustment; The Chinese finance reform, especially the capital aec, ount opens brings the new risks and the challenges for the Chinese exchange rate policy implementation; China's foreign trade strategy adjustment brings new questions for operation of exchange rate system; Chinese exchange rate system reforming provides the new operation environment, the constraint condition and the control measures for the exchange rate policy. This chapter conducts the dynamic research and analysis to the influence of above factors in the condition of unifying the above analysis content in the article.
From the whole article, the research innovations mainly are following three aspects, namely innovation of study object, research content innovation and research technique innovation. Concretely it refers:
PartⅠ: The innovation of study object
Finance is the core and the blood vessels of modern economy, while the exchange rate is the bridge and the link of the financial relation between countries, whose importance appears more prominent in economical globaliTation today; therefore, there are voluminous literature conceming exchange rate research. In the domestic research, the nearly complete research concentrate in the exchange rate system, whereas overlooks or simply gives to neglect conceming the exchange rate policy system bearing exchange rate system. But in the macroscopic economical level, the important policy and method adjusting exterior balance of China are continuously vacant. That this kind of essential blank in research and practice is not only a reason for the topic of this article, also becomes the important innovation of study object of this article.
PartⅡ: The innovation of research content
The innovation of research content mainly includes following 4 parts.
1. Systematically proposes the Renminbi exchange rate solitary wave thought. This article proposes the Renminbi exchange rate solitary wave thought unifying the modern physics dispersion theory and the orphan theory. The proposal of this thought not only provides a new angle of view and model for the exchange rate research, also provides one kind of new explanation frame regarding the government regulation effect of the Renminbi super-stable structure on international and domestic.
2. Systematically proposes the ultimate objective choice system and the intermediate objective constitution system of Chinese exchange rate policy, and establishes the basic principle and thought of goal establishment and setup. In the foundation of unifying Chinese actual, it analyzes mutual influence between the intermediate objective, as well as the integrated influence affected by intermediate objective on ultimate objective.
3. Systematically analyzes the matching of the financial policy and the exchange rate policy, to the financial policy, discusses the overall matching method and principle of the monetary policy and the exchange rate policy, proposes the related principle and plan, and conducted the research to the combination of policy and measure of Chinese exchange rate policy taking rate stabilization as the goal.
4. Wholly analyzes the credit risk, the currency risk, the moral risk under the opens of the capital project, and proposes the overall performance model and the risk evolution in this situation.
PartⅢ: The innovation of research technique
1. The innovation of policy research frame. The domestic traditional policy research frame generally design analysis according to the policy foundation, the policy present situation, the policy content, and the policy influence. This kind of research lacks the unifying with practice, also short of the logic, often merely summarizes the former actual situation, while lacks foresightedness and independence. This article uses analysis flame of the policy environment and foundation, the policy double-decked goal design, the policy measures and method, the policy matches with the measure combination, effectively avoids insufficiency in the above research.
2. The innovation of method combination. This article combines the research technique of mathematical economics, quantity economics, the physics, the system economics, the scientific philosophy, carries on the essential estimation to the hypothesis macroscopic economical variable parameter, and breaks through the flaw of the separation of the logic and the practice in the existing research.
我国经济进入了典型的高速增长阶段的繁荣期，固定资产投资增长过快、外汇储备总量过大和粮食、石油等原料价格上涨成为制约经济进一步发展的重要隐忧。由于问题集中且结构复杂，仅仅依靠原有的政策调整已显得成本过于高昂和乏力了。这种政策调控中的困境说明，随着我国经济规模的扩张、市场经济体制的完善和经济自由度的不断增大，原有的以内部经济政策来同时调整国民经济达到内部均衡和外部均衡的政策体系设计已经在逐步的失效，新的且能够直接以经济外部均衡为调控目标的政策手段的引入便显得亟为迫切和必要，而汇率政策则是发达市场经济国家对经济外部均衡进行调整的直接而有效的手段。
从中国汇率问题的历史来看，长期以来，中国一直处于有制度无政策的状况。所谓有制度是指中国在不同的时期都存在执行不同的汇率管理的基本原则和方针，如解放初期的对卢布的固定汇率制度、60年代以后对美元的固定汇率制度、80年代计划和市场汇率并存的双轨汇率制度以及1994年以后形成的“有管理的浮动汇率”制度等等。所谓无政策是指在基本制度约束的前提下，中国的汇率始终没有形成富有弹性的调控措施体系，如在1997年以后形成的超稳定的人民币汇率结构，无论中国国内经济的发展情况如何，也无论其主要的钉住国家美国的经济发展形式如何，央行始终保持名义汇率的异常稳定，而放弃了对经济进行有效外部调整并进行有效政策搭配的调控措施的使用。这种“跛行”的汇率安排随着中国经济规模的扩张和国际影响力的扩大，带来的问题和风险将逐步的加大，甚至将拖累整个国民经济，因此，构筑具有中国特色的人民币汇率政策体系并将其作为国家宏观经济调控手段的重要组成部分是具有重大而深远的意义的。
所谓的汇率政策其含义是：一国外汇主管当局或货币当局为实现其预定的宏观经济目标，对汇率的定价水平、波动幅度、锚货币构成和干预方式等实施调节和控制的具体措施。本文以“中国汇率政策研究”为题目，其核心有两点，第一点是汇率政策，第二点则是建构。从汇率政策而言，汇率政策的实施现状、汇率政策的环境与形成基础、汇率政策的目标、汇率政策的政策手段等是汇率政策研究的最主要内容。而对于建构来说，则主要包括汇率政策目标的选择、汇率政策措施和手段的构成及实施效果、汇率政策措施手段的组合以及汇率政策与其他宏观经济政策的搭配等内容。本文在论述中，将两者予以结合并进行联合讨论，既突出汇率政策和建构各自内容的独立性，又将其作用和效果相融合，以求建立理论上和实践上都能具有较高价值的中国汇率政策构成方案。
本文在研究结构上共分为四个主要部分，即理论及思想基础、现象的分析和总结、对象的构成及分析、实践意义及其前景分析。这四个主要部分之间存在层层递进的关系，前—个部分的讨论是后一部分研究分析和拓展的基础。以此为条件，本文将文章的整体框架分解为四个组成部分，即：第一部分，理论及思想基础部分，具体包括第1章和第2章；第二部分，现象分析和总结部分，具体包括文章第3章的主要内容；第三部分，研究对象构成及分析部分，具体包括第4章和第5章的内容；第四部分，实践意义及前景分析部分，具体包括第6章和第7章的内容。
第一部分：理论及思想基础部分
1．第1章：导论。在本章中主要对全文的总体框架和研究结构与方法进行讨论与分析，其中重点讨论了影响本文的重要概念及其涵义，对于本文的总体研究方法在思想、结构和论证上进行总结，并对本文的创新和不足之处进行了自查和总结。
2．第2章：理论研究综述。在本章中对本文所依靠的重要理论基础进行总结和分析，将整体理论研究分为四个主要部分，即汇率制度理论、货币危机理论、发展中国家汇率决定理论、开放经济下宏观经济政策冲突与协调理论。从汇率制度理论来看，文中主要分析了马克思关于汇率制度的论述、西方汇率制度理论以及其自身内容的新发展等方面的内容；从货币危机理论来看，本文对马克思的货币危机理论、西方货币危机理论(三代货币危机理论)、货币危机的传染效应、货币危机与银行危机的共生性研究等方面的内容进行了总结；在发展中国家汇率决定理论中，本文主要对爱德华兹(E.Edwards)的汇率均衡模型进行了总结和分析；在开放经济下宏观政策冲突及协调理论中，文章主要总结和概括了米德冲突、丁伯根原则、斯旺曲线、蒙代尔“政策分派”理论和克鲁格曼“不可能三角”等内容。上述理论的综述和总结，基本上满足了本文在分析和研究中的需要，并成为本文创新的有效基础。
第二部分：现象分析和总结部分
第二部分的内容主要是指第3章论述的内容。在该章中，系统概括并阐述了人民币汇率及汇率政策的基础与现状，对汇率制度等环境因素进行了分析。从内容来看，可以分为三个主要部分，即人民币汇率的形成基础、人民币汇率的运行环境(汇率制度)、人民币汇率形成机制及问题。在人民币汇率的形成基础中，既对传统的形成基础研究进行了概括，在系统经济学理论的指导下，分析了实体经济系统(购买力)和金融经济系统(利率)的作用和影响，又形成了本文的重要创新点，人民币汇率孤波现象，提出了人民币汇率形成的新思想；在人民币汇率的运行环境中，总结性的分析了人民币汇率制度的演变、现行汇率制度的特点和现行汇率制度的缺陷等内容；而在人民币汇率的形成机制部分，则客观分析了现行人民币汇率形成机制及其主要内容。从分析的效果看，能够为本文的下一步研究提供充分而有效的局限条件。
第三部分：研究对象构成及分析部分
1．第4章：中国汇率政策的目标选择。在本章的研究中，主要将汇率政策的目标划分为最终目标和中间目标，并分别展开分析。在汇率政策最终目标的分析中，较为系统的概括和研究了汇率政策最终目标的五个选择，即汇率稳定目标、汇率中性目标、促进出口目标、吸引外资目标和均衡汇率目标，并在结合中国国情的基础上，选定了汇率稳定目标是中国现阶段最有可能确立的汇率政策实际目标，并将其假定为本文以后分析和讨论的实现目标。在汇率政策的中间目标研究中，根据国际经济和金融经济学、国际经济学的重要理论结论，选择了外汇储备、外汇占款、货币供应量、通货膨胀率和相对利率水平来作为中国汇率政策的中间目标，并将中间目标相互间的影响及其与最终目标之间的关系进行了整合研究。
2．第5章：中国汇率政策措施的构成。本章首先分析和总结了汇率政策的直接措施和间接措施的构成与实施效力，分别分析了汇率升值措施、汇率贬值措施、利率调整措施、外汇管制措施、公开市场操作措施、汇率波动幅度措施和锚货币组成调整措施等内容。以此为基础，在系统经济学等理论的指导下，本文对上述汇率政策措施的影响进行了整合，并提出汇率政策措施的搭配规划。
第四部分：实践意义及前景分析部分
1．第6章：中国汇率政策与财政及货币政策的搭配与运作。在本章中，主要讨论了汇率政策与货币政策和财政政策的搭配的基本框架和理论原则，并在此基础上，整体上分析和研究了三种重要宏观经济政策的总体搭配原则。在其中，财政政策与汇率政策的搭配以及适合中国国情的三种宏观经济政策的总体搭配研究都构成本文重要的创新。
2．第7章：中国汇率政策发展的若干问题。在本章中，本文对中国汇率政策在决定和影响因素变化的情况下的自身改革和发展情况进行了总结和分析。汇率政策的决定和影响因素主要包括人民币长期均衡汇率的测算、中国金融改革、中国对外贸易战略调整、汇率制度转型四项内容。其中，人民币长期均衡汇率测算为中国汇率政策调整的基本方向提供了目标；中国金融改革，尤其是资本账户开放的改革为中国汇率政策的实施带来了新的风险和挑战；中国的外贸战略调整，为汇率政策的运作带来了新的问题；中国汇率制度转型，为汇率政策提供了新的运作环境、约束条件和控制措施。本章在结合前文分析内容的情况下，对上述因素的影响进行了动态研究和分析。
从文章的整体上看，研究的创新主要体现在以下三个方面，即研究对象的创新、研究内容的创新和研究方法的创新。具体是指：
一、研究对象的创新
金融是现代经济的核心和血脉，而汇率则是国家间金融联系的桥梁和纽带，在经济日趋全球化的今天，汇率的重要性更显得突出，因此，对汇率研究的文献便浩如烟海。但从国内的研究情况来看，几乎全部的研究都集中在汇率制度的研究上，对于承载汇率制度的汇率政策体系，要么—笔带过，要么就干脆予以忽略。而在宏观经济层面，作为调整中国外部均衡的重要政策手段却一直空缺。这种研究中和实践中的关键空白既是本文选题的原因，也成为本文研究对象的重要创新所在。
二、研究内容的创新
研究内容的创新主要体现在以下4个部分。
1．较系统地提出了人民币的汇率孤波思想。本文结合现代物理学色散理论和孤子理论，提出了人民币汇率孤波的思想，这种思想的提出既为汇率研究提供了一个新的视角和模型，也为国际上和国内对于人民币超稳定结构的政府管制效应提供了一种新的解释框架。
2．较系统的提出了中国汇率政策的最终目标选择体系和中间目标构成体系，并确立了目标成立和设置的基本原则和思想，在结合中国实际的基础上，分析了中间目标间的相互影响，以及中间目标对最终目标的整合影响。
3．较系统的分析了财政政策与汇率政策的搭配问题，对财政政策、货币政策与汇率政策的总体搭配方法和原则进行了讨论，提出了相关原则和方案，并对中国以汇率稳定为目标的汇率政策下的措施组合进行了研究。
4．将资本项目开放下的信贷风险、货币风险、道德风险进行整合分析，并提出了该情况下总体风险的综合表现模型及风险演进。
三、研究方法的创新
1．政策研究框架的创新。从国内传统的政策研究框架来看，—般按政策的基础、政策的现状、政策的内容、政策的影响四个方面进行设计分析，这种研究与实际缺乏结合性，在逻辑性上也有欠缺，往往只是对既往实际情况的总结，而缺乏前瞻性和独立性。本文对政策的研究采用了政策环境与基础、政策的双层目标设计、政策措施与手段、政策搭配与措施组合的分析框架，有效地避免了上述研究中的不足。
2．方法组合的创新。本文将数理经济学、数量经济学、物理学、系统经济学、科学哲学的研究方法予以组合，对假定的宏观经济变量的参数都进行了必要的估定，突破了现有研究中逻辑与实践相分离的缺陷。
Since long ago, our country has not formed the powerful regulative method regarding the regulation of opening part in national economy, and improved the external economy environment mainly depending on the domestic economic policy measure. This regulative way, not only increases the policy cost greatly, causes the market to have the new distortion, but also makes the main policy goal deviated or makes its implementation receive the serious system brake. What need to be paid attention is that this tendency presents more and more prominently in the current economic environment.
Our country economy enters a prosperous time of the high-speed gowth stage, the investment in the fixed assets grows excessively, the total quantity of foreign exchange reservation oversized and raw material such as grain and petroleum rises in price, which become the important concealed worry to restrict economy further development. Because the question is centered and the structure is complicated, it appears that the cost is too high and weak merely depending upon the original policy adjustment. This kind of policy regulation dilemma shows that, along with the expansion of our country economical scale, the perfection of the market economy system and the increase of the freedom degree of economy unceasingly, original policy system design that simultaneously adjusts the national economy by the internal economy policy to achieve the interior balance and exterior balance is already in the gradually expiration, so it is essential and urgent to introduce new policy method, which can take the economy exterior balance as the regulative goal directly, while the exchange rate policy is the direct and the effective method to adjust the economy exterior balance in the developed market economy country.
From the point of history question of the Chinese exchange rate, since long ago China has been in the stage that has the system but non-policy. So-called has the system is refers to China has executed different basic principle and the policy of the exchange rate management in the different time, such as the ruble fixed rate of exchange system in the early days of liberation, the US dollar fixed rate of exchange system in the later 1960s, the two-track exchange rate system in which to, the plan and the market exchange rate coexist in the1980s, "have the management floating exchange rate" system formed after 1994 and so on. So-called non-policy is refers to that under the premise of basic system restraint, China's exchange rate has not yet formed the rich elastically regulative measure system. Take the super-stable Renminbi exchange rate structure formed after 1997 for an example, regardless of how Chinese domestic economy developed, and also regardless of how is the economical development form of the main nailed country US, the central bank has been maintaining the nominal exchange rate stable exceptionally, but gave up carrying on to the economy effective exterior adjustments and using the regulative measures of the matched effective policy. This "limps" exchange rate arrangement leads to gradually enlarging questions and risks along with the expansion of the Chinese economical scale and the international influence, even will implicate the entire national economy. Therefore, it is of great and profound significance to construct Renminbi exchange rate policy system with Chinese characteristic and take it as the important constituent of the national macroscopic economy regulation method.
The meaning of so-called exchange rate policy is: the specific measures of adjustments and controls used by a country foreign exchange executive authority or the currency authority to exchange rate fixed price level, margin of fluctuation, constitution of anchor currency, intervention way and so on currency for achieving its predetermined macroscopic economic goal. This article takes "The research on constructing the Chinese exchange rate policy" as a topic, and has two cores, the first is the exchange rate policy, the second is the construction. From the point of exchange rate policy, the present implementation situation, the environment and the form foundation, the goal, the policy method of the exchange rate policy and so on are the main coverage of exchange rate policy research. While regarding construction, it mainly includes the choice of the exchange rate policy goal, the constitution and the implementation effect of the exchange rate, the combination of the exchange rate policy measures and method, as well as the exchange rate policy matches with other macroeconomic policies. This article unifies and discusses the both, not only prominent the content independence of the exchange rate policy and constructs respectively, but also fuses its function and the effect, in order to establish the Chinese exchange rate policy constitution plan with high value in theoretically and practically.
This article is divided into four main parts in the research structure, namely theory and thought foundation, phenomenon analysis and summary, object constitution and analysis, practice significance and its prospect analysis. There exists layer upon layer relations between these four main parts, the preceding partial discussions are the foundations on which the latter part of research analyzes and develops. Take this as the condition, this article divides the overall frame into four constituents, namely: The first part, the theory and the thought foundation including 1st chapter and the 2nd chapter specifically; The second part, the phenomenon analysis and the summary including the 3rd chapter specifically; The third part, the constitution of study object and the analysis including the 4th and the 5th chapter specifically; The fourth part, the practice significance and the prospect analysis including 6th chapter and the 7th chapter specifically.
The first part: Theory and Thought Foundation
1. The 1st chapter: Introduction. this chapter mainly discusses and analyzes the full text overall frame and the research structure and method, in which with emphasis discusses the important concept and implication which influences this article, summarizes overall research technique of this article in the thought, structure and the proof, and self-examines and summarizes the innovation and the deficiency of this article.
2. The 2nd chapter: Theory research summary. This chapter summarizes and analyzes the important theory basis upon which this article depends, divides the overall theory research into the four main parts, namely exchange rate system theory, currency crisis theory, the exchange rate decision theory of developing nations, the macroeconomic policy conflict and coordinated theory under open economy. Conceming the exchange rate system theory, this article mainly analyzes Marx's elaboration about the exchange rate system, western exchange rate system theory as well as new development of its content and so on; Conceming the currency crisis theory, this article summarizes the Marx's currency crisis theory, the western currency crisis theory (three generation of currency crisis theory), the infection effect of currency crisis, the coexist of the currency crisis and the bank crisis and so on; Concerning the exchange rate decision theory of developing nations, this article mainly summarizes and analyzes Edwards's (E. Edwards) the exchange rate balanced model; Concerning the macroscopic policy conflict and coordinated theory under open economy, the article mainly summarizes Meader Conflict, Ding Burgon principle, the Siwan curve, Mondale "the policy distribution" theory and Crue Gehman "the impossible triangle" and so on. The above theory summary basically satisfies the need of analysis and research in this article, and becomes the effective foundation of innovations of this article.
The Second part: Phenomenon Analysis and Summary
The second part mainly refers to the 3rd chapter. This chapter systematically summarizes and elaborates the foundation and the present situation of Renminbi exchange rate and the exchange rate policy, analyzes environmental factors such as exchange rate system. This chapter can be divided into three main parts, namely the formation foundation, movement environment (exchange rate system), the formation mechanism and questions of Renminbi exchange rate. In the formation foundation of Renminbi exchange rate, this part not only summarizes the traditional research formation foundation,, but also analyzes the function and the influence of the entity economical system (purchasing power) and the financial economical system (interest rate) under the guide of system economic theory, which forms the important innovation spot of this article-the solitary wave phenomenon of Renminbi exchange rate, and proposes new thought of the Renminbi exchange rate forms; Conceming the movement environment of Renminbi exchange rate, this chapter generally analyzes the evolution, characteristics and dificency of Renminbi exchange rate system and so on; while concerning the formation mechanism of Renminbi exchange rate, this chapter objectively analyzes the mechanism and its main content of present Renminbi exchange rate formed mechanism. From the point of analysis effect, it can provide full and effective limitation condition for the next research of this article.
The third part: Constitution of Object Study and Analysis
1. The 4th chapter: The target selection and establishment of Chinese exchange rate policy. This chapter mainly divides the exchange rate policy goal into the ultimate objective and the intermediate objective, and launches the analysis separately. In the analysis of exchange rate policy ultimate objective, systematically summarizes and studies the five choices of the exchange rate policy ultimate objective, namely the stabilization of exchange rate goal, the exchange rate neutral goal, the export promotion goal, the attraction of foreign capital goal and the balanced exchange rate goal, and in the foundation of unifying the Chinese national condition, chooses the stabilization of exchange rate goal as the exchange rate policy actual target which is likely to be established in Chinese present stage, and hypothesis it as the realization goal later analyzed and discussed in this article. In the research of the exchange rate policy intermediate objective, according to the important theory conclusions of the international economics and the financial economics, the international economics, this chapter chooses the foreign exchange reserve, the foreign exchange occupied-funds, the money supply, the inflation rate and the relative interest rate level as the intermediate objective of the Chinese exchange rate policy, and has carried on the integrated research on mutually influence of the intermediate objectives and its relations with the ultimate objective.
2. The 5th chapter: The constitution and operation of Chinese exchange rate policy and measures. This chapter first analyzes and summarizes the constitution and the implementation potency of the direct measure and the indirect measure of the exchange rate policy, and analyzes the exchange rate revaluation measure, exchange rate depreciation measure, rate adjustment measure, foreign exchange control measure, open market operation measure, exchange rate margin of fluctuation measure, composition adjustment measure of anchor currency respectively. Take this as the foundation, under the guide of system economics, this article integrates the influence of above exchange rate measures, and proposes the matching plan of exchange rate policy and measures.
The Fourth part: Practice Significance and Prospect Analysis
1. The 6th chapter, matching and operation plan of Chinese macroeconomic policy. This chapter mainly discusses the basic flame and the theory principle which the exchange rate policy and the monetary policy and the financial policy match, and under this foundation, analyzes and studies the overall matching principle of three kind of important macroeconomic policy. Among which, the financial policy and the exchange rate policy match, and the overall matching principle of three kind of important macroeconomic policy adapted to the Chinese national condition all constitute the important innovations of this article.
2. The 7th chapter: The study and analysis of Chinese exchange rate policy development. This chapter summarizes and analyzes own reform and development situation of the Chinese exchange rate policy in the changing of decisive and influential factor situation. The decisive and influential factors of the exchange rate policy mainly include the survey and calculation of Renminbi long-term balanced exchange rate, the Chinese finance reform, the Chinese foreign trade strategy adjustment, and the exchange rate system reform. Among them, the survey and calculation of Renminbi long-term balanced exchange rate provided the goal for the basic direction of Chinese exchange rate policy adjustment; The Chinese finance reform, especially the capital aec, ount opens brings the new risks and the challenges for the Chinese exchange rate policy implementation; China's foreign trade strategy adjustment brings new questions for operation of exchange rate system; Chinese exchange rate system reforming provides the new operation environment, the constraint condition and the control measures for the exchange rate policy. This chapter conducts the dynamic research and analysis to the influence of above factors in the condition of unifying the above analysis content in the article.
From the whole article, the research innovations mainly are following three aspects, namely innovation of study object, research content innovation and research technique innovation. Concretely it refers:
PartⅠ: The innovation of study object
Finance is the core and the blood vessels of modern economy, while the exchange rate is the bridge and the link of the financial relation between countries, whose importance appears more prominent in economical globaliTation today; therefore, there are voluminous literature conceming exchange rate research. In the domestic research, the nearly complete research concentrate in the exchange rate system, whereas overlooks or simply gives to neglect conceming the exchange rate policy system bearing exchange rate system. But in the macroscopic economical level, the important policy and method adjusting exterior balance of China are continuously vacant. That this kind of essential blank in research and practice is not only a reason for the topic of this article, also becomes the important innovation of study object of this article.
PartⅡ: The innovation of research content
The innovation of research content mainly includes following 4 parts.
1. Systematically proposes the Renminbi exchange rate solitary wave thought. This article proposes the Renminbi exchange rate solitary wave thought unifying the modern physics dispersion theory and the orphan theory. The proposal of this thought not only provides a new angle of view and model for the exchange rate research, also provides one kind of new explanation frame regarding the government regulation effect of the Renminbi super-stable structure on international and domestic.
2. Systematically proposes the ultimate objective choice system and the intermediate objective constitution system of Chinese exchange rate policy, and establishes the basic principle and thought of goal establishment and setup. In the foundation of unifying Chinese actual, it analyzes mutual influence between the intermediate objective, as well as the integrated influence affected by intermediate objective on ultimate objective.
3. Systematically analyzes the matching of the financial policy and the exchange rate policy, to the financial policy, discusses the overall matching method and principle of the monetary policy and the exchange rate policy, proposes the related principle and plan, and conducted the research to the combination of policy and measure of Chinese exchange rate policy taking rate stabilization as the goal.
4. Wholly analyzes the credit risk, the currency risk, the moral risk under the opens of the capital project, and proposes the overall performance model and the risk evolution in this situation.
PartⅢ: The innovation of research technique
1. The innovation of policy research frame. The domestic traditional policy research frame generally design analysis according to the policy foundation, the policy present situation, the policy content, and the policy influence. This kind of research lacks the unifying with practice, also short of the logic, often merely summarizes the former actual situation, while lacks foresightedness and independence. This article uses analysis flame of the policy environment and foundation, the policy double-decked goal design, the policy measures and method, the policy matches with the measure combination, effectively avoids insufficiency in the above research.
2. The innovation of method combination. This article combines the research technique of mathematical economics, quantity economics, the physics, the system economics, the scientific philosophy, carries on the essential estimation to the hypothesis macroscopic economical variable parameter, and breaks through the flaw of the separation of the logic and the practice in the existing research.
引文
1 马克思的生卒年代分别是1818年和1883年。
2 《马克思恩格斯全集》第46卷，人民出版社，1979年版。
3 《马克思恩格斯全集》第46卷，人民出版社，1979年版。
4 马克思，《政治经济学批判》，人民出版社，1976的年版．
5 马克思，《资本论》第3卷，人民出版社，1975年版。
6 最初是由诺贝尔经济学奖得主托宾提出的。鉴于现代浮动汇率体制下货币投机活动可能导致汇率过度波动，托宾主张对所有的外汇交易买卖征收一定比例的交易税即所谓的“托宾税”，目的是“给国际资金融通的轮盘里掺点砂子”，使货币交易速度减慢，成本增加。
7 汇率目标区最早提出者是美国经济学家魏福德·依塞尔和亚·布龙菲尔德，此后，伯格斯坦和米勒、克鲁格曼、威廉姆森和海宁等又对这一构想不断丰富和完善。其中，当数克鲁格曼的贡献最大，他在其论文《目标区和汇率动态》中研究了汇率产生的效果比在完全浮动汇率制下要小。但由于实证检验的结果较差，后来克鲁格曼和斯文森等进一步 扩展了汇率目标区模型。
8 库伯认为单一货币实施的具体步骤分两步：首先应在工业国实行汇率目标区：然后由美国、日本和欧盟组成单一货币制度，在此基础上实现世界范围内的单—货币制度．
9 赫勒认为，发展中国家汇率制度的选择应与以下结构性因素有关：经济规模、开放程度、通货膨胀率、贸易格局、国际金融一体化程度。
10 李普斯奇茨，《小型发展中国家的汇率政策选择及选择指标》。
11 蒙代尔对于最适度的货币的定义是：最优货币区指相互之间的移民倾向很高，足以保证其中一个地区面临不对称冲击时能实现充分就业的几个地区形成的区域。而《新帕尔格雷夫大辞典》定义为：最适度货币区指这佯一种区域，在区域内一般支付手段或是一种单一的共同货币，或是几种货币，这几种货币之间具有无限可兑换性，其汇率在进行经常交易或资本交易中相互钉住，保持不变。但区域内国家与区域以外国家之间的汇率保持浮动。
12 即超固定汇率，包括货币联盟和货币局制度。
13 即三元悖论，本文在以后的论述中混用两个同义的名词。
14 即exit strategies．
15 马克思，《资本论》第3卷，人民出版社，1975年版。
16 马克思．《资本论》第3卷，人民出版社，1975年版。
17 马克思，《资本论》第3卷，人民出版社，1975年版。
18 马克思，《资本论》第3卷，人民出版社，1975年版。
19 《马克思恩格斯选集》第23卷，人民出版社，1972年版．
20 《马克思恩格斯选集》第3卷，人民出版社，1960年版。
21 马克思，《资本论》，第3卷，人民出版社，1975年版。
22 马克思，《资本论》，第3卷，人民出版社，1975年版。
23 马克思，《资本论》，第3卷，人民出版社，1975年版。
24 如1992年欧洲货币危机中的欧洲各国。
25 根据UNCTAD的划分标准，以色列、南非应属发达国家．
1 如林德特在其《国际经济学》中的分类。
2 本文此处援引穆勒的价值表示法，而不是我们习惯上马克思的价值表述法，穆勒认为，所谓价值即是其各构成部分的货币(黄金)表现。
3 因为实体经济的需要产生了金融系统，可是金融系统一旦形成，就脱离了实体经济甚至给予实体经济反向的影响。
4 至少在目前，人民币汇率的漏出的金融部分仍然是贸易汇率(单一汇率)接受者，没有表现出相异的情形。
5 微观粒子在高速运动的状态下，其性质呈现波粒二象性。
6 也即本文未就人民币汇率孤波形成的原因做进一步的研究，而只是对现象自身直接进行探讨。
7 经验推导，未做标准的波粒二象性测定，但粒子的自我振动是其产生波动性的原因，这种归纳具有哲学上的可行性。
8 即针对锚货币组的每一种货币的人民币与其汇率变动速度。
9 这种汇率制度已经具备了明显的可操作性，可以称之为汇率政策，但由于历史习惯和计划经济体制的影响，仍将其归于汇率制度予以论述。
10 但并非完全实现，人民币仍未实现资本项目下的可兑换，但根据IMF的第八条款，实现经常项目下可兑换的货币就可以称为可兑换货币。
11 其理论将在第6章进一步说明。
12 图中各线段表示的是示意图，在中国并没有证据表明外来资本对利率的敏感度与本币的利率敏感度更高。
13 实际为扩张的货币政策。
14 据新华社2006-8-17日电，中国的外汇储备高达9250亿美元，而日本仍维持在8300亿美元左右的水平。
15 美元的为0.3％，其他货币为1％。
16 《中国进出口企业经营成本的考察》，《中国经营报》，2006-2-12。
1．[英]艾玛·A 穆萨，汇率预测：技术与应用[M]，北京：经济管理出版社，2004；
2．赵登峰，人民币市场均衡汇率与实际均衡汇率研究[M]，北京：社会科学文献出版社，2005：
3．张纯威，人民币名义汇率超稳定研究[M]，北京：经济管理出版社，2005；
4．丁剑平，人民币汇率与制度问题的实证研究[M]，上海：上海财经大学出版社，2003：
5．曾诗鸿，金融脆弱性理论——银行不良贷款生成的监管博弈与最优动态数量模型[M]，北京：经济科学出版社，2004；
6．[美]罗纳德·I 麦金农，美元本位下的汇率——东亚高储蓄两难[M]，北京：中国金融出版社，2005；
7．黄瑞玲，汇率稳定机制——以钉住汇率制下的货币危机为视角[M]，北京：社会科学文献出版社，2005；
8．刘兴华，汇率制度选择[M]，北京：经济管理出版社，2005；
9．[美]罗纳德·I麦金农，经济自由化的顺序——向市场经济过渡中的金融控制[M]，北京：中国金融出版社，1993；
10．[美]罗纳德·I麦金农、[日]大野健一，日元与美元——化解美日两国的经济冲突[M]，上海：上海远东出版社，1999；
11．[美]迈克尔·波特，国家竞争优势[M]，北京：华夏出版社，2002；
12．[美]萨克斯·拉雷恩，全球视角的宏观经济学[M]，上海：上海三联书店，1994：
13．陈亚温、林东海，欧元续论：欧元基础、运作与效应分析，北京：中国金融出版社会，2001：
14．姜波克，国际金融学[M]，北京：高等教育出版社，1999；
15．姜波克，人民币自由兑换和资本管制[M]，上海：复旦大学出版社，1999；
16．姜波克、陆前进，汇率理论和政策研究[M]，上海：复旦大学出版社，2000；
17．[美]金德尔伯格，世界经济霸权1500——1990年，北京：商务印书馆，2003；
18．[英]梅纳德·凯恩斯，就业利息与货币通论[M]，北京：商务印书馆，1990；
19．[美]克鲁格曼，汇率的不稳定性，北京：北京大学出版社，2000；
20．[英]34。科普兰，汇率与国际金融[M]，北京：中国金融出版社，2002；
21．[美]罗纳德·I麦金农，世界美元本位和东亚汇率困境[M]，北京：中信出版社，2002；
22．[美]穆萨、马森，世界经济一体化进程中的汇率制度[M]，北京：中国金融出版社，2003；
23．聂丹，可调整的钉住汇率：钉住与调整[M]，上海：上海人民出版社，2002；
24．[美]诺思，经济史中的结构与变迁[M]，上海：上海三联书店，1997；
25．彭兴韵，金融发展的路径依赖与金融自由化[M]，上海：上海三联书店，2002；
26．盛斌，中国对外贸易政策的政治经济分析[M]，上海：上海三联书店，2002；
27．[美]托达罗，经济发展[M]，北京：中国经济出版社，1999；
28．[美]肖，经济发展中的金融深化[M]，上海：上海三联书店，1988；
29．杨长江，人民币实际汇率长期调整趋势研究[M]，上海：上海财经大学出版社，2002；
30．庄敏敏，经济转轨中的金融改革问题——对俄罗斯的实证研究[M]，北京：中国人民大学出版社，2001；
31．马克思，资本论[M]，北京：人民出版社，1975；
32．马克思、恩格斯，马克思恩格斯全集[M]，北京：人民出版社，1979；
33．马克思，政治经济学批判[M]，北京：人民出版社，1976；
34．[美]金德尔伯格，经济过热、经济恐慌及经济崩溃：金融危机史[M]，北京：北京大学出版社，2000；
35．[美]迈克尔·梅尔文，国际货币与金融[M]，上海：上海三联书店，1991；
36．[美]彼得·林德特，国际经济学[M]，北京：经济科学出版社，2002；
37．[美]弗雷德里克·S米什金，货币金融学[M]，北京：中国人民大学出版社，2005；
38．[美]保罗·克鲁格曼，国际经济学[M]，北京：中国人民大学出版社，2004；
39．裴平，国际金融学[M]，南京：南京大学出版社，2003；
40．[美]巴瑞·易臣格瑞，金融危机的防范与管理[M]，北京：经济科学出版社，2003；
41．姜波克，开放经济下的宏观金融管理[M]，上海：复旦大学出版社，2000；
42．陈岱孙、厉以宁，国际金融学说史[M]，北京：中国金融出版社，1997；
43．冯用富，汇率制度——理论架构与中国金融进一步开放中的选择[M]，成都：西南财经大学出版社，2001；
44．IMF秘书处，世界经济展望：金融危机案例分析与指标[M]，北京：中国金融出版社，1998；
45．杨帆，人民币汇率研究：兼论国际金融危机与中国涉外经济[M]，北京：首都经贸大学出版社，2000；
46．李小牧，金融危机的国际传导：90年代的理论与实践[M]，北京：中国金融出版社，2001：
47．韦伟，金融危机论：经济学角度分析[M]，北京：经济科学出版社，2001；
48．石俊志，金融危机生成机理与防范[M]，北京：中国金融出版社，2001；
49．许少强，东亚经济体的汇率变动[M]，上海：上海财经大学出版社，2002；
50．张晓朴，人民币均衡汇率研究[M]，北京：中国金融出版社，2001；
51．薛敬孝，金融全球化与国际金融危机[M]，天津：天津人民出版社，2001；
52．廖发达，发展中国家资本项目开放与银行稳定：兼论中国资本项目开放[M]，上海：上海远东出版社，2001；
53．刘海虹，人民币汇率制度安排的产权经济学分析[M]，北京：中国经济出版社，2001：
54．王德祥，经济全球化条件下世界佥融危机研究[M]，武汉：武汉大学出版社，2002：
55．马树才，宏观经济数量分析[M]，北京：经济科学出版社，2006年版。
56．陆同兴，非线性物理概论[M]，北京：高等教育出版社，2002年版。
57．郭大均，非线性泛函分析[M]，北京：高等教育出版社，2002年版。
58．中国国家统计局，中国经济统计年鉴[M]，中国统计出版社，各年期；
59．美国商务部网站数据资料库；
60．美国财政部网站数据资料库；
61．美国联邦储备银行网站教据资料库；
62．黎明，财政政策和货币政策的搭配研究[D]，东北财经大学优秀硕士研究生毕业论文，2002；
63．裴平、熊鹏，我国货币政策传导过程中的“渗漏”效应[J]，经济研究，2003-08；
64．裴平、黄瑞玲，论汇率的内外稳定机制及其协调[J]，江苏行政学院学报，2002-04；
65．高海红，开放中国的资本项目[R]，中国社科院研究报告，2001-03；
66．曲凤杰，人民币资本账户开放对汇率机制的影响[J]，经济参考，2001-73；
68．吴运迪，论人民币汇率中长期决定的制度安排[J]，国际金融研究，2000-05；
69．李婧，人民币汇率制度选择：文献综述[J]，世界经济，2002-03；
70．李婧，解析人民币钉住美元制[J]，管理世界，2002-09；
71．李婧，人民币汇率制度改革取向及退出战略[J]，国际经济评论，2003-01；
72．蒙代尔，三元货币及其时金融的影响[J]，国际金融研究，2002-05；
73．蒋峰，汇率制度选择[J]，金融研究，2001-05；
74．沈国兵，论“中间空洞化”汇率制度假说[J]，经济问题，2001-11；
75．沈国兵，汇率制度的选择理论综述及一个假说[J]，世界经济文汇，2002-03；
76．江时学，拉美和东亚的汇率制度比较[J]，当代亚太，2001-03；
77．刘力臻、谢朝阳，东亚货币合作与人民币汇率制度选择[J]，管理世界，2003-03；
78．李静萍，论国际汇率制度变迁的一般规律及启示[J]，山西财经大学学报，2003-01：
79．何帆、李志远，汇率变动与汇率制度变革的政治经济分析[J]，世界经济与政治，2002-11：
80．申卫平，发展中国家汇率制度的两难与解决方案[J]，世界经济与政治，2002-11：
81．金洪飞，外债的期限结构与货币危机[J]，金融研究，2003-06；
82．鄂志寰，现代货币危机理论发展及其面临的挑战[J]，经济学动态，2001-03；
83．丁剑平、谌卫学，关于香港联系汇率制度可持续性研究[J]，财经研究，2002-05：
84．陈平，人民币汇率非均衡分析与汇率制度的宏观效率[J]，经济研究，2002-06；
85．沈国兵、史晋川，汇率制度选择：不可能三角及其扩展[J]，世界经济，2002-10；
86．靳玉英，泰国、韩国、马来西亚、印度尼西亚四国现行汇率制度分析[J]，国际金融研究，2001-09；
87．刘淄、张力美，金融开放条件下利率与汇率的相互影响及其协调[J]，国际金融研究，2003-01：
88．张斌、何帆，人民币汇率升值的策略选择[J]，国际经济评论，2003-09；
89．余永定，消除人民币升值恐惧症，实现向经济平衡发展过渡[J]，国际经济评论，2003-10：
90．方文，对国际收支危初传染的比较研究[J]，世界经济，2000-06；
91．钟伟，略论人民币国际化进程[J]，世界经济，2002-03；
92．黄瑞玲、黄忠平，中国国际收支失衡：理论解析与政策调整[J]，世界经济与政治论坛，2004-04；
93．马勇、高翔，现行汇率制度对我国货币政策的制约[J]，国际金融研究，2003-09；
94．乔桂明，货币替代：资本项目开放进程中的考验与政策选择[J]，国际金融研究，2003-11：
95．伍志文，“中国之谜”原因解析：金融资产膨胀说[J]，财经研究，2003-01；
96．张纯威，“影系统”中金融资产虚幻价值的形成与破灭[J]，财经研究，2003-02；
97．朱庆，发展中国家国际储备增长与世界通货紧缩[J]，世界经济，2003-03；
98．周自明，1995——2002外商直接投资对中国国际收支的影响[J]，世界经济研究，2003-08；
99．宗良、张海霞，出口退税机制及其影响[J]，国际金融研究，2003-11：
100．汪洋，再论中国货币政策与汇率政策的冲突[J]，国际经济评论，2005-01；
101．高中良，论人民币汇率政策选择[J]，金融理论与实践，2005-03；
102．吴洁，关税与汇率政策配合与宏观经济均衡研究[J]，中南大学学报，2005-03；
103．何帆，全球国际收支失衡与人民币汇率政策调整[J]，山东财政学院学报，2005-03：
104．王剑辉，央行汇率政策温和发力[N]，证券时报，2006-6-19；
105．袁跃东，日本政府汇率政策的变化及其启示[C]，第五届日本研究青年论坛论文集，2003；
106．彭玉镏，人民币汇率信誉分析[J]，世界经济，2005-06；
107．范志勇，中国货币政策与汇率政策的协调与替代[J]，世界经济，2005-07；
108．[美]麦金农，实行新的汇率政策：中国会步日本的后尘陷入流动性陷阱吗?[J]，国际金融研究，2005-11；
109. Asher, David L., and Robert H. Dugger (2000), Could Japan's Financial Mount Fuji Blow Its Top? MIT Japan Program. Worldng Paper Series 00-01;
110. Bernanke, Ben. (2000). Japanese Monetary Policy: A Case of self-induced Paralysis? Washington, D. C.: Institute for Internation Economies.
111. Bordo, Michael, and Finn Kydland (1995). The Gold Standard as a Rule an Essay in Exploration. Explorations in Economic History;
112. Bulter, Willem H. 1999, Optimal Currency Areas: Why Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter? Scottish Economic Society Annual lecture. Edinburgh. October;,
113. Callen, Timothy, and Warwick J. McKibbin. 2001. Policies and Prospects in Japan and the Implication for the Asia-Pacific Region. International Monetary Fund Working Paper 01-131;
114. Calvo, Guilermo, and Carmen Reinhart.2002. Fear of Floating. Quarterly journal of Economics 117;
115. Cargill, Thomas, Michael M. Hutchison, and Takatoshi Ito.1997. The Politicial Economy of Japanese Monetary Policy. Cambrige, Mass.: M1T Press.
116. Chin, Danid, and Preston Miller.1998. Fixed Versus Floating Exchange Rates: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis. European Economic Review 42;
117. Ching, Stephen, and Michael B. Devereux. 2000a. Risk Sharing and the Theory of Optimal Currency Areas: A Re-examination of Mundell 1973. Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research Working Paper 8-2000;
118. Conley, John P., and William F. Maloney.1995. Optimal Sequencing of Credible Reforms with Uncertain Outcomes. Journal of Development Economies 48 (October);
119. Dominguez, Kathryn M., and Jeffrey A. FrankeL1993. Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work? Washington D.C.: Institute for International Economics;
120. Dornbusch, Rudiger, and Alejandro Werner.1994. Mexico: Stabilization, Reform and No Growth. Brookings papers on Economic Activityl;
121. The Economist. 2002. Koizumi's Depreciation Tour. January 17.
122. Eichengreen, Barry.1992. Should the Maastricht Treaty Be Saved? Princeton Studies in International Finance 92-74. Priceton, N. J.: Princeton University Press.
123. Eichengreen, Barry, and Ricardo Hausmann.1999. Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 7418;
124. Feldstein, Martin. 2000. Europe can't Handle the Euro. Wall Street Journal, Feburary.
125. Fidler, Stephen. 2001. Beijing Rules out Devaluation to Spur Exports. Financial Times, November 19;
126. Fischer, Stanley. 1999. On the Need for a Lender of Last Resort. Address to the American Economic Association, January 3.
127. Frandel, Jeffrey A., and Andrew K. Rose. 1998. The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria. Economic Journal 108;
128. Frankei, Jeffrey A., and Shang-Jin Wei. 1994. Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies in East Asian Economics. In Macroeconomic Linkage: Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, ed. Takatoshi Ito and Anne Krueger, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
129. Fukao, Mitsuhiro. 2002. Japan's Lost Decade and Weaknesses in Its Corporate Governance Structure. Paper presented at the symposium Japan's Lost Decade: Origins, Consequences and Prospects for Recovery. University of Michigan. March.
130. Garber, Peter, and Mark P. Taylor. 1995. Sand in the Wheels of Foreign Exchange Markets: A Sceptical Note, Economic Finance 1;
131. Goyal, Rishi. 2001. Foreign Exchange Risk and Japan's Liquidity Trap. Ph. D. diss., Stanford University, Stanford, California.
132. Goyal, Rishi, and Ronald I. Mckinnon. 2002. Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates: The Liquidity Trap and the Fall in Bank Lending. The World Economy 26 March;
133. Hillebrand, Erie, and Gunther Schnable. 2003. The Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervetion GARCH Estimation and Change Point Detection. Japan Bank for International Cooperation Institute Working Paper 6.
134. Abu-Mostafa, Y. S. (1995) Financial Market Appfications of Learning from Hints, in Reference, A. P. (ed.) Neural Networks in Capital Market, Chichester, WHey.
135. Allen, F. and Karjalainen, R. (1999) Using Genetic Algorithms to Find Technical Trading Rules, Journal of Financial Economics, 51, 245-71.
136. Allen, H. L. and Taylor, M. P. (1990) Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market, Economic Journal, 100, 49-59.
137. Allen, H. L. and Taylor, M. P. (1993) Chartist Analysis, in Newman, P., Milgate, M. And Eatwell, J. (eds) The New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance, London: Macmillan.
138. Arice, A. C. (1995)The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on U. S. Exports: An Empirical Investigation, Southern Economic Journal, 62, 34-43.
139. Bajo-Rubio, O., Fernandez-Rodiguez, F. and Sovilla-Rivero, S. (1997) Chaotic Behavior in Exchange Rate Series: First Results of the Peseta-U. S. Dollar Case, Economics Letters, 39, 207-11.
140. Batchelor, R. A. (1990) All Forecasters are Equal, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 8, 143-4.
141. Brock, W. A., Hsieh, D. A. and LeBaron, B. (1991) Nonlinear Dynamics, Chaos and Instability: Statistical Theory and Economic Evidence, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
142. Brock, W., Lakonishok, J. and LeBaron, B. (1992) Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns, Journal of Finance, 47, 1731-64.
143. Burke, M. L. (1990) Three-Point Reversal Method of Point and Figure Construction and Formations, New Rochelle, NY: Chartcrafl Inc.
144. Chang, P. H. K. and Osier, C. L. (1995) Head and Shouders: Not Just a Flaky Pattern, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff. Reports. No.4.
145. Chappell, D. and Eldridge, R. M. (1997) Non-linear Characteristics of the Sterling/European Currency Unit Exchange Rate: 1984-1992, European Journal of Finance, 3, 159-82.
146. Clyde, W. C. and Osier, C. L. (1997) Charting: Chaos Theory in Disguise, Journal of Futures Markets, 17, 489-514.
147. Copeland, L. S. (1991) Cointegration Tests with Daily Exchange Rate Data, Oxford Bulletin of Economies and Statistics, 53,185-98.
148. Copeland, L. S.(1994) Exchange Rate and International Finance, (2nd edn), Workingham: Addison-Wesley.
149. Curcio, R. and Goodhart, C. A. E.(1991) Chartism: A Controlled Experiment, Working Paper, London School of Economics, September.
150. Cuthbertson, K., Hall, S. G.. and Taylor, M. P.(1992) Applied Econometric Techniques, London: Phillip Allan.
151. De Grauwe, P. and Vansanten, K. (1990) Deterministic Chaos in the Foreign Exchange Market, CEPR Discussion Papers, No:370.
152. Diebold, F. X. (1998a) Elements of Forecasting, Cincinnati, OH: SouthWestern College Publishing.
153. Diebold, F. X. (1998b) The Past, Present and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 12, 175-92.
154. Diebold, F. X. and Mariano, R. S.(1995) Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. 13, 253-63.
155. Diebold, F. X. and Nason, J. (1990) Nonparametric Exchange Rate Prediction? Journal of International Economics, 28, 315-322.
156. Dungey, M. (1998) How Important are Meteor Showers and Heat Waves in Exchange Rate Volatility, Working Paper, La Trobe University.
157. Dwyer, J. G. P. and Wallace, M. S. (1992) Cointegration and Market Efficiency, Journal of International Money and Finance, 4, 361-72.
158. Eldridge, R. M., Bernhardt, C. and Mulvey, I. (1993) Evidence of Chaos in the S and P 500 Cash Index, Recent Advances in Futures and Options Research, 6.
2 《马克思恩格斯全集》第46卷，人民出版社，1979年版。
3 《马克思恩格斯全集》第46卷，人民出版社，1979年版。
4 马克思，《政治经济学批判》，人民出版社，1976的年版．
5 马克思，《资本论》第3卷，人民出版社，1975年版。
6 最初是由诺贝尔经济学奖得主托宾提出的。鉴于现代浮动汇率体制下货币投机活动可能导致汇率过度波动，托宾主张对所有的外汇交易买卖征收一定比例的交易税即所谓的“托宾税”，目的是“给国际资金融通的轮盘里掺点砂子”，使货币交易速度减慢，成本增加。
7 汇率目标区最早提出者是美国经济学家魏福德·依塞尔和亚·布龙菲尔德，此后，伯格斯坦和米勒、克鲁格曼、威廉姆森和海宁等又对这一构想不断丰富和完善。其中，当数克鲁格曼的贡献最大，他在其论文《目标区和汇率动态》中研究了汇率产生的效果比在完全浮动汇率制下要小。但由于实证检验的结果较差，后来克鲁格曼和斯文森等进一步 扩展了汇率目标区模型。
8 库伯认为单一货币实施的具体步骤分两步：首先应在工业国实行汇率目标区：然后由美国、日本和欧盟组成单一货币制度，在此基础上实现世界范围内的单—货币制度．
9 赫勒认为，发展中国家汇率制度的选择应与以下结构性因素有关：经济规模、开放程度、通货膨胀率、贸易格局、国际金融一体化程度。
10 李普斯奇茨，《小型发展中国家的汇率政策选择及选择指标》。
11 蒙代尔对于最适度的货币的定义是：最优货币区指相互之间的移民倾向很高，足以保证其中一个地区面临不对称冲击时能实现充分就业的几个地区形成的区域。而《新帕尔格雷夫大辞典》定义为：最适度货币区指这佯一种区域，在区域内一般支付手段或是一种单一的共同货币，或是几种货币，这几种货币之间具有无限可兑换性，其汇率在进行经常交易或资本交易中相互钉住，保持不变。但区域内国家与区域以外国家之间的汇率保持浮动。
12 即超固定汇率，包括货币联盟和货币局制度。
13 即三元悖论，本文在以后的论述中混用两个同义的名词。
14 即exit strategies．
15 马克思，《资本论》第3卷，人民出版社，1975年版。
16 马克思．《资本论》第3卷，人民出版社，1975年版。
17 马克思，《资本论》第3卷，人民出版社，1975年版。
18 马克思，《资本论》第3卷，人民出版社，1975年版。
19 《马克思恩格斯选集》第23卷，人民出版社，1972年版．
20 《马克思恩格斯选集》第3卷，人民出版社，1960年版。
21 马克思，《资本论》，第3卷，人民出版社，1975年版。
22 马克思，《资本论》，第3卷，人民出版社，1975年版。
23 马克思，《资本论》，第3卷，人民出版社，1975年版。
24 如1992年欧洲货币危机中的欧洲各国。
25 根据UNCTAD的划分标准，以色列、南非应属发达国家．
1 如林德特在其《国际经济学》中的分类。
2 本文此处援引穆勒的价值表示法，而不是我们习惯上马克思的价值表述法，穆勒认为，所谓价值即是其各构成部分的货币(黄金)表现。
3 因为实体经济的需要产生了金融系统，可是金融系统一旦形成，就脱离了实体经济甚至给予实体经济反向的影响。
4 至少在目前，人民币汇率的漏出的金融部分仍然是贸易汇率(单一汇率)接受者，没有表现出相异的情形。
5 微观粒子在高速运动的状态下，其性质呈现波粒二象性。
6 也即本文未就人民币汇率孤波形成的原因做进一步的研究，而只是对现象自身直接进行探讨。
7 经验推导，未做标准的波粒二象性测定，但粒子的自我振动是其产生波动性的原因，这种归纳具有哲学上的可行性。
8 即针对锚货币组的每一种货币的人民币与其汇率变动速度。
9 这种汇率制度已经具备了明显的可操作性，可以称之为汇率政策，但由于历史习惯和计划经济体制的影响，仍将其归于汇率制度予以论述。
10 但并非完全实现，人民币仍未实现资本项目下的可兑换，但根据IMF的第八条款，实现经常项目下可兑换的货币就可以称为可兑换货币。
11 其理论将在第6章进一步说明。
12 图中各线段表示的是示意图，在中国并没有证据表明外来资本对利率的敏感度与本币的利率敏感度更高。
13 实际为扩张的货币政策。
14 据新华社2006-8-17日电，中国的外汇储备高达9250亿美元，而日本仍维持在8300亿美元左右的水平。
15 美元的为0.3％，其他货币为1％。
16 《中国进出口企业经营成本的考察》，《中国经营报》，2006-2-12。
1．[英]艾玛·A 穆萨，汇率预测：技术与应用[M]，北京：经济管理出版社，2004；
2．赵登峰，人民币市场均衡汇率与实际均衡汇率研究[M]，北京：社会科学文献出版社，2005：
3．张纯威，人民币名义汇率超稳定研究[M]，北京：经济管理出版社，2005；
4．丁剑平，人民币汇率与制度问题的实证研究[M]，上海：上海财经大学出版社，2003：
5．曾诗鸿，金融脆弱性理论——银行不良贷款生成的监管博弈与最优动态数量模型[M]，北京：经济科学出版社，2004；
6．[美]罗纳德·I 麦金农，美元本位下的汇率——东亚高储蓄两难[M]，北京：中国金融出版社，2005；
7．黄瑞玲，汇率稳定机制——以钉住汇率制下的货币危机为视角[M]，北京：社会科学文献出版社，2005；
8．刘兴华，汇率制度选择[M]，北京：经济管理出版社，2005；
9．[美]罗纳德·I麦金农，经济自由化的顺序——向市场经济过渡中的金融控制[M]，北京：中国金融出版社，1993；
10．[美]罗纳德·I麦金农、[日]大野健一，日元与美元——化解美日两国的经济冲突[M]，上海：上海远东出版社，1999；
11．[美]迈克尔·波特，国家竞争优势[M]，北京：华夏出版社，2002；
12．[美]萨克斯·拉雷恩，全球视角的宏观经济学[M]，上海：上海三联书店，1994：
13．陈亚温、林东海，欧元续论：欧元基础、运作与效应分析，北京：中国金融出版社会，2001：
14．姜波克，国际金融学[M]，北京：高等教育出版社，1999；
15．姜波克，人民币自由兑换和资本管制[M]，上海：复旦大学出版社，1999；
16．姜波克、陆前进，汇率理论和政策研究[M]，上海：复旦大学出版社，2000；
17．[美]金德尔伯格，世界经济霸权1500——1990年，北京：商务印书馆，2003；
18．[英]梅纳德·凯恩斯，就业利息与货币通论[M]，北京：商务印书馆，1990；
19．[美]克鲁格曼，汇率的不稳定性，北京：北京大学出版社，2000；
20．[英]34。科普兰，汇率与国际金融[M]，北京：中国金融出版社，2002；
21．[美]罗纳德·I麦金农，世界美元本位和东亚汇率困境[M]，北京：中信出版社，2002；
22．[美]穆萨、马森，世界经济一体化进程中的汇率制度[M]，北京：中国金融出版社，2003；
23．聂丹，可调整的钉住汇率：钉住与调整[M]，上海：上海人民出版社，2002；
24．[美]诺思，经济史中的结构与变迁[M]，上海：上海三联书店，1997；
25．彭兴韵，金融发展的路径依赖与金融自由化[M]，上海：上海三联书店，2002；
26．盛斌，中国对外贸易政策的政治经济分析[M]，上海：上海三联书店，2002；
27．[美]托达罗，经济发展[M]，北京：中国经济出版社，1999；
28．[美]肖，经济发展中的金融深化[M]，上海：上海三联书店，1988；
29．杨长江，人民币实际汇率长期调整趋势研究[M]，上海：上海财经大学出版社，2002；
30．庄敏敏，经济转轨中的金融改革问题——对俄罗斯的实证研究[M]，北京：中国人民大学出版社，2001；
31．马克思，资本论[M]，北京：人民出版社，1975；
32．马克思、恩格斯，马克思恩格斯全集[M]，北京：人民出版社，1979；
33．马克思，政治经济学批判[M]，北京：人民出版社，1976；
34．[美]金德尔伯格，经济过热、经济恐慌及经济崩溃：金融危机史[M]，北京：北京大学出版社，2000；
35．[美]迈克尔·梅尔文，国际货币与金融[M]，上海：上海三联书店，1991；
36．[美]彼得·林德特，国际经济学[M]，北京：经济科学出版社，2002；
37．[美]弗雷德里克·S米什金，货币金融学[M]，北京：中国人民大学出版社，2005；
38．[美]保罗·克鲁格曼，国际经济学[M]，北京：中国人民大学出版社，2004；
39．裴平，国际金融学[M]，南京：南京大学出版社，2003；
40．[美]巴瑞·易臣格瑞，金融危机的防范与管理[M]，北京：经济科学出版社，2003；
41．姜波克，开放经济下的宏观金融管理[M]，上海：复旦大学出版社，2000；
42．陈岱孙、厉以宁，国际金融学说史[M]，北京：中国金融出版社，1997；
43．冯用富，汇率制度——理论架构与中国金融进一步开放中的选择[M]，成都：西南财经大学出版社，2001；
44．IMF秘书处，世界经济展望：金融危机案例分析与指标[M]，北京：中国金融出版社，1998；
45．杨帆，人民币汇率研究：兼论国际金融危机与中国涉外经济[M]，北京：首都经贸大学出版社，2000；
46．李小牧，金融危机的国际传导：90年代的理论与实践[M]，北京：中国金融出版社，2001：
47．韦伟，金融危机论：经济学角度分析[M]，北京：经济科学出版社，2001；
48．石俊志，金融危机生成机理与防范[M]，北京：中国金融出版社，2001；
49．许少强，东亚经济体的汇率变动[M]，上海：上海财经大学出版社，2002；
50．张晓朴，人民币均衡汇率研究[M]，北京：中国金融出版社，2001；
51．薛敬孝，金融全球化与国际金融危机[M]，天津：天津人民出版社，2001；
52．廖发达，发展中国家资本项目开放与银行稳定：兼论中国资本项目开放[M]，上海：上海远东出版社，2001；
53．刘海虹，人民币汇率制度安排的产权经济学分析[M]，北京：中国经济出版社，2001：
54．王德祥，经济全球化条件下世界佥融危机研究[M]，武汉：武汉大学出版社，2002：
55．马树才，宏观经济数量分析[M]，北京：经济科学出版社，2006年版。
56．陆同兴，非线性物理概论[M]，北京：高等教育出版社，2002年版。
57．郭大均，非线性泛函分析[M]，北京：高等教育出版社，2002年版。
58．中国国家统计局，中国经济统计年鉴[M]，中国统计出版社，各年期；
59．美国商务部网站数据资料库；
60．美国财政部网站数据资料库；
61．美国联邦储备银行网站教据资料库；
62．黎明，财政政策和货币政策的搭配研究[D]，东北财经大学优秀硕士研究生毕业论文，2002；
63．裴平、熊鹏，我国货币政策传导过程中的“渗漏”效应[J]，经济研究，2003-08；
64．裴平、黄瑞玲，论汇率的内外稳定机制及其协调[J]，江苏行政学院学报，2002-04；
65．高海红，开放中国的资本项目[R]，中国社科院研究报告，2001-03；
66．曲凤杰，人民币资本账户开放对汇率机制的影响[J]，经济参考，2001-73；
68．吴运迪，论人民币汇率中长期决定的制度安排[J]，国际金融研究，2000-05；
69．李婧，人民币汇率制度选择：文献综述[J]，世界经济，2002-03；
70．李婧，解析人民币钉住美元制[J]，管理世界，2002-09；
71．李婧，人民币汇率制度改革取向及退出战略[J]，国际经济评论，2003-01；
72．蒙代尔，三元货币及其时金融的影响[J]，国际金融研究，2002-05；
73．蒋峰，汇率制度选择[J]，金融研究，2001-05；
74．沈国兵，论“中间空洞化”汇率制度假说[J]，经济问题，2001-11；
75．沈国兵，汇率制度的选择理论综述及一个假说[J]，世界经济文汇，2002-03；
76．江时学，拉美和东亚的汇率制度比较[J]，当代亚太，2001-03；
77．刘力臻、谢朝阳，东亚货币合作与人民币汇率制度选择[J]，管理世界，2003-03；
78．李静萍，论国际汇率制度变迁的一般规律及启示[J]，山西财经大学学报，2003-01：
79．何帆、李志远，汇率变动与汇率制度变革的政治经济分析[J]，世界经济与政治，2002-11：
80．申卫平，发展中国家汇率制度的两难与解决方案[J]，世界经济与政治，2002-11：
81．金洪飞，外债的期限结构与货币危机[J]，金融研究，2003-06；
82．鄂志寰，现代货币危机理论发展及其面临的挑战[J]，经济学动态，2001-03；
83．丁剑平、谌卫学，关于香港联系汇率制度可持续性研究[J]，财经研究，2002-05：
84．陈平，人民币汇率非均衡分析与汇率制度的宏观效率[J]，经济研究，2002-06；
85．沈国兵、史晋川，汇率制度选择：不可能三角及其扩展[J]，世界经济，2002-10；
86．靳玉英，泰国、韩国、马来西亚、印度尼西亚四国现行汇率制度分析[J]，国际金融研究，2001-09；
87．刘淄、张力美，金融开放条件下利率与汇率的相互影响及其协调[J]，国际金融研究，2003-01：
88．张斌、何帆，人民币汇率升值的策略选择[J]，国际经济评论，2003-09；
89．余永定，消除人民币升值恐惧症，实现向经济平衡发展过渡[J]，国际经济评论，2003-10：
90．方文，对国际收支危初传染的比较研究[J]，世界经济，2000-06；
91．钟伟，略论人民币国际化进程[J]，世界经济，2002-03；
92．黄瑞玲、黄忠平，中国国际收支失衡：理论解析与政策调整[J]，世界经济与政治论坛，2004-04；
93．马勇、高翔，现行汇率制度对我国货币政策的制约[J]，国际金融研究，2003-09；
94．乔桂明，货币替代：资本项目开放进程中的考验与政策选择[J]，国际金融研究，2003-11：
95．伍志文，“中国之谜”原因解析：金融资产膨胀说[J]，财经研究，2003-01；
96．张纯威，“影系统”中金融资产虚幻价值的形成与破灭[J]，财经研究，2003-02；
97．朱庆，发展中国家国际储备增长与世界通货紧缩[J]，世界经济，2003-03；
98．周自明，1995——2002外商直接投资对中国国际收支的影响[J]，世界经济研究，2003-08；
99．宗良、张海霞，出口退税机制及其影响[J]，国际金融研究，2003-11：
100．汪洋，再论中国货币政策与汇率政策的冲突[J]，国际经济评论，2005-01；
101．高中良，论人民币汇率政策选择[J]，金融理论与实践，2005-03；
102．吴洁，关税与汇率政策配合与宏观经济均衡研究[J]，中南大学学报，2005-03；
103．何帆，全球国际收支失衡与人民币汇率政策调整[J]，山东财政学院学报，2005-03：
104．王剑辉，央行汇率政策温和发力[N]，证券时报，2006-6-19；
105．袁跃东，日本政府汇率政策的变化及其启示[C]，第五届日本研究青年论坛论文集，2003；
106．彭玉镏，人民币汇率信誉分析[J]，世界经济，2005-06；
107．范志勇，中国货币政策与汇率政策的协调与替代[J]，世界经济，2005-07；
108．[美]麦金农，实行新的汇率政策：中国会步日本的后尘陷入流动性陷阱吗?[J]，国际金融研究，2005-11；
109. Asher, David L., and Robert H. Dugger (2000), Could Japan's Financial Mount Fuji Blow Its Top? MIT Japan Program. Worldng Paper Series 00-01;
110. Bernanke, Ben. (2000). Japanese Monetary Policy: A Case of self-induced Paralysis? Washington, D. C.: Institute for Internation Economies.
111. Bordo, Michael, and Finn Kydland (1995). The Gold Standard as a Rule an Essay in Exploration. Explorations in Economic History;
112. Bulter, Willem H. 1999, Optimal Currency Areas: Why Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter? Scottish Economic Society Annual lecture. Edinburgh. October;,
113. Callen, Timothy, and Warwick J. McKibbin. 2001. Policies and Prospects in Japan and the Implication for the Asia-Pacific Region. International Monetary Fund Working Paper 01-131;
114. Calvo, Guilermo, and Carmen Reinhart.2002. Fear of Floating. Quarterly journal of Economics 117;
115. Cargill, Thomas, Michael M. Hutchison, and Takatoshi Ito.1997. The Politicial Economy of Japanese Monetary Policy. Cambrige, Mass.: M1T Press.
116. Chin, Danid, and Preston Miller.1998. Fixed Versus Floating Exchange Rates: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis. European Economic Review 42;
117. Ching, Stephen, and Michael B. Devereux. 2000a. Risk Sharing and the Theory of Optimal Currency Areas: A Re-examination of Mundell 1973. Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research Working Paper 8-2000;
118. Conley, John P., and William F. Maloney.1995. Optimal Sequencing of Credible Reforms with Uncertain Outcomes. Journal of Development Economies 48 (October);
119. Dominguez, Kathryn M., and Jeffrey A. FrankeL1993. Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work? Washington D.C.: Institute for International Economics;
120. Dornbusch, Rudiger, and Alejandro Werner.1994. Mexico: Stabilization, Reform and No Growth. Brookings papers on Economic Activityl;
121. The Economist. 2002. Koizumi's Depreciation Tour. January 17.
122. Eichengreen, Barry.1992. Should the Maastricht Treaty Be Saved? Princeton Studies in International Finance 92-74. Priceton, N. J.: Princeton University Press.
123. Eichengreen, Barry, and Ricardo Hausmann.1999. Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 7418;
124. Feldstein, Martin. 2000. Europe can't Handle the Euro. Wall Street Journal, Feburary.
125. Fidler, Stephen. 2001. Beijing Rules out Devaluation to Spur Exports. Financial Times, November 19;
126. Fischer, Stanley. 1999. On the Need for a Lender of Last Resort. Address to the American Economic Association, January 3.
127. Frandel, Jeffrey A., and Andrew K. Rose. 1998. The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria. Economic Journal 108;
128. Frankei, Jeffrey A., and Shang-Jin Wei. 1994. Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies in East Asian Economics. In Macroeconomic Linkage: Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, ed. Takatoshi Ito and Anne Krueger, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
129. Fukao, Mitsuhiro. 2002. Japan's Lost Decade and Weaknesses in Its Corporate Governance Structure. Paper presented at the symposium Japan's Lost Decade: Origins, Consequences and Prospects for Recovery. University of Michigan. March.
130. Garber, Peter, and Mark P. Taylor. 1995. Sand in the Wheels of Foreign Exchange Markets: A Sceptical Note, Economic Finance 1;
131. Goyal, Rishi. 2001. Foreign Exchange Risk and Japan's Liquidity Trap. Ph. D. diss., Stanford University, Stanford, California.
132. Goyal, Rishi, and Ronald I. Mckinnon. 2002. Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates: The Liquidity Trap and the Fall in Bank Lending. The World Economy 26 March;
133. Hillebrand, Erie, and Gunther Schnable. 2003. The Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervetion GARCH Estimation and Change Point Detection. Japan Bank for International Cooperation Institute Working Paper 6.
134. Abu-Mostafa, Y. S. (1995) Financial Market Appfications of Learning from Hints, in Reference, A. P. (ed.) Neural Networks in Capital Market, Chichester, WHey.
135. Allen, F. and Karjalainen, R. (1999) Using Genetic Algorithms to Find Technical Trading Rules, Journal of Financial Economics, 51, 245-71.
136. Allen, H. L. and Taylor, M. P. (1990) Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market, Economic Journal, 100, 49-59.
137. Allen, H. L. and Taylor, M. P. (1993) Chartist Analysis, in Newman, P., Milgate, M. And Eatwell, J. (eds) The New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance, London: Macmillan.
138. Arice, A. C. (1995)The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on U. S. Exports: An Empirical Investigation, Southern Economic Journal, 62, 34-43.
139. Bajo-Rubio, O., Fernandez-Rodiguez, F. and Sovilla-Rivero, S. (1997) Chaotic Behavior in Exchange Rate Series: First Results of the Peseta-U. S. Dollar Case, Economics Letters, 39, 207-11.
140. Batchelor, R. A. (1990) All Forecasters are Equal, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 8, 143-4.
141. Brock, W. A., Hsieh, D. A. and LeBaron, B. (1991) Nonlinear Dynamics, Chaos and Instability: Statistical Theory and Economic Evidence, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
142. Brock, W., Lakonishok, J. and LeBaron, B. (1992) Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns, Journal of Finance, 47, 1731-64.
143. Burke, M. L. (1990) Three-Point Reversal Method of Point and Figure Construction and Formations, New Rochelle, NY: Chartcrafl Inc.
144. Chang, P. H. K. and Osier, C. L. (1995) Head and Shouders: Not Just a Flaky Pattern, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff. Reports. No.4.
145. Chappell, D. and Eldridge, R. M. (1997) Non-linear Characteristics of the Sterling/European Currency Unit Exchange Rate: 1984-1992, European Journal of Finance, 3, 159-82.
146. Clyde, W. C. and Osier, C. L. (1997) Charting: Chaos Theory in Disguise, Journal of Futures Markets, 17, 489-514.
147. Copeland, L. S. (1991) Cointegration Tests with Daily Exchange Rate Data, Oxford Bulletin of Economies and Statistics, 53,185-98.
148. Copeland, L. S.(1994) Exchange Rate and International Finance, (2nd edn), Workingham: Addison-Wesley.
149. Curcio, R. and Goodhart, C. A. E.(1991) Chartism: A Controlled Experiment, Working Paper, London School of Economics, September.
150. Cuthbertson, K., Hall, S. G.. and Taylor, M. P.(1992) Applied Econometric Techniques, London: Phillip Allan.
151. De Grauwe, P. and Vansanten, K. (1990) Deterministic Chaos in the Foreign Exchange Market, CEPR Discussion Papers, No:370.
152. Diebold, F. X. (1998a) Elements of Forecasting, Cincinnati, OH: SouthWestern College Publishing.
153. Diebold, F. X. (1998b) The Past, Present and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 12, 175-92.
154. Diebold, F. X. and Mariano, R. S.(1995) Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. 13, 253-63.
155. Diebold, F. X. and Nason, J. (1990) Nonparametric Exchange Rate Prediction? Journal of International Economics, 28, 315-322.
156. Dungey, M. (1998) How Important are Meteor Showers and Heat Waves in Exchange Rate Volatility, Working Paper, La Trobe University.
157. Dwyer, J. G. P. and Wallace, M. S. (1992) Cointegration and Market Efficiency, Journal of International Money and Finance, 4, 361-72.
158. Eldridge, R. M., Bernhardt, C. and Mulvey, I. (1993) Evidence of Chaos in the S and P 500 Cash Index, Recent Advances in Futures and Options Research, 6.